I'm watching the Astros-Yankees game today on MLB.TV - it's great quality, and we're up 2-0 after Willy Taveras singled, stole 2nd, and was driven in on an opposite-field double by Luke Scott, who was then driven in after a single by Lamb and a sac fly by Jason Lane. Both Taveras and Scott looked great at the plate to me.

I had a great time in Phoenix for a few days. I arrived Wednesday afternoon and met a friend for the Rangers-Royals game at Surprise Stadium. The starting pitchers were Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima - I wish I was sitting in the outfield. Mark Teixeira CRUSHED an early HR nearly out of the stadium, and Alfonso Soriano and Matt Stairs also had HR's. Oh yeah, and my friend is the nephew of Rangers manager Buck Showalter, so we had great seats, and I got to meet Buck himself after the game. He went to Mississippi State and I went to Vanderbilt, so we had some good-natured SEC competitive trash-talking going. He was a heck of a guy - very personable and polite - probably because his team had just won.

Then I crashed on the coach at my roommate's girlfriend's house that night; the next day, I got to the Cubs / Angels game about 3 hours early - no problem getting a ticket, right? Wrong. Cubs fans are EVERYWHERE, and the game was sold out. Quite a few guys were still waiting in line at the ticket counter, and one of them told me that the players usually send back a bunch of tickets before the game starts, so I hopped in line. Almost instantly, about 50 more people got in line right behind me. An elderly couple approached me and asked if I would buy them 2 tickets. I said sure, and after waiting in line for about 45 minutes, I bought 3 tickets at 6 bucks each. They gave me a 20 dollar bill and said "Thanks!" Sweet; free game for me. I got lawn seats, so I was out in left field. It was Kelvim Escobar vs. Carlos Zambrano - a pretty good pitching matchup, but I figured Vladi or Aramis Ramirez might hit one out to me. The first HR hit that day? Carlos Zambrano took Escobar DEEP to right field. D'oh! Then Derrek Lee homered to center, Darin Erstad homered to right, and that was that. K-Rod came on late for the Angels and made a bunch of guys look silly to get the save.

I was then planning on going to the San Diego game, but I was pretty sunburned, so I decided to stop by Casino Arizona and play some poker. They've got a great poker room - 45 tables, tons of big screen TV's, no smoking. I didn't do much for the first hour or two, and then came the hand of my life (so far):

I call with 55 in 1st position.
A few guys limp in middle positions.
The small blind raises. I call, all the limpers call.
The flop comes 3-5-7 rainbow. I check, all the limpers check, the small blind bets, I raise, everyone folds, the small blind calls.
The turn brings another 5! So I've got quads. I bet, the small blind raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he calls.
The river is an A. I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he 6-bets, I 7-bet, he calls, and flips over AA (the 2nd nuts).
So I raked what must have been a 200 dollar pot, almost all heads-up!
Man, my heart was pumping...what an experience. My victim took it pretty well, too - he was way up before that.

The next day I was planning on going to the Giants game, but I felt like coming home to Flagstaff, so I did.

It was a hell of a trip, great weather, good baseball, sleeping on a couch.

I'll post later today with this Astros summary (and more Biggio / Burke comments by Phil Garner).

Computer Glitches, Yesterday's Game, and a Road Trip

I listened to the Astros's 14-8 win over the Phillies yesterday, wrote a long post about it, and my computer immediately glitched. So here it goes again:

Ezequiel Astacio pitched 4 innings, allowed 3 hits, 1 BB, and had 5 K. Another solid outing for 'Zeke', and while I still believe he should be started in the bullpen (because Redding / Duckworth shouldn't just be released), he's looked fantastic this spring, and I'm not sure how long we'll be able to keep him in the pen.
Luke Scott did his usual spring thing, with a single, HR, and 4 RBI. Ho-hum. There's not much more to say about this guy. Pass it off as fluky if you must, but he's earned a chance to prove that it's not a fluke in the Show.
A bunch of other offensive contributions (Chris Burke with a late triple; he's now hitting .296, has drawn 5 walks, and is slugging over .500, while Craig Biggio is hitting .265 and is slugging .294 with 1 extra base hit, but it looks as though he'll be our starting 2B), but our pitching was sketchy: in particular, Dave Burba should start looking for good flight prices, as he got hammered again this spring - he's got a 9.26 ERA in 11.2 innings. He's had a fine career, but it doesn't look like it will continue here.

ESPN SportsCenter reported last night that the Astros are still likely to trade for an outfielder in the next 10 days, with Randy Winn, Mike Cameron, and Eric Byrnes as possible targets. I'm glad to have the Winn rumors start up again, as I think he'd be our best fit (excellent 2nd half last year, no injury concers, younger / cheaper than Mike Cameron). Seattle is also home to one of the less intelligent GM's in the game in Bill Bavasi - this would be a great test to see what kind of deal Purpura can get. You would think the M's would be almost looking to get rid of Winn - they've got Ibanez / Reed / Ichiro! in the OF, and Sexson and Bucky Jacobsen at 1B / DH. But you never know. My task for Purpura is to find a way to trade for Winn without trading Chris Burke, if at all possible. I know I said trade him yesterday, but I was frustrated because of his lack of playing time and clear superiority (this spring, at least) over Craig Biggio. But, as someone reminded me, Biggio is a 39-year old 2nd basemen who gets hit by a lot of pitches; there's a decent chance he could get injured and be Wally Pipp-ed by Burke. We'll see.

Vanderbilt lost to Memphis in the NIT quarterfinals last night - we started off hot, going up 11-2, but then tried to run with Memphis for a while instead of playing halfcourt basketball. By the time we started hitting a few shots again, we were down 10, and Memphis was the better team last night, especially on the boards. Good luck to them.

So I'm finally heading down to Phoenix in a few hours; I'm going to the Rangers - Royals game tonight and hopefully a few others on Friday and Saturday. JT, Andy, it's all yours.

Solid outings by Oswalt and Pettitte the last two games (both wins). I'd still like to see Pettitte wait and start the 4th or 5th game of the season, but I doubt it'll happen. Luke Scott is still the big offensive star; here are his numbers this spring, before today's game (when he went 2-for-2):

26 AB
6 H
3 2B
3 HR
8 RBI
.423 AVG
.885 SLG

I'm beating a dead horse here, but Scott MUST MAKE THE TEAM, at the least while Berkman is hurt.

Richard Justice was on KTRH the other day, and he still believes the Astros will acquire a 'big' bat, possibly (again) Mike Cameron. Chris Burke isn't getting any playing time at 2B; I think it's likely Biggio will start there all year, demoting Burke to backup IF, where the presence of Proven Veteran might even push Burke back to AAA. Much as I like Burke, he needs to play now, so I'd rather trade him than have him spend another year at AAA; I think Brooks Conrad will probably be ready next year anyway. I wonder if we could find a different A's team to try and make a 3-way trade with; the Mets reportedly need a corner OF to replace Cameron. Wily Mo Pena of the Reds? Termel Sledge of the Nats? Raul Ibanez of the Mariners? With Cameron signed for two more years, an OF of Lane / Cameron / Berkman wouldn't be too bad; this would push Scott and Taveras to their rightful places as backup OF's, and an IF (this year) of Ensberg / Everett / Biggio / Bagwell, with Conrad coming up soon. Here's the thing about Burke - he's 25, and he had never displayed power like last year. I think last year may have been a touch fluky. I still want him on my team, but if he doesn't start this year, he might just be blocking Conrad next year, and we probably coudn't get the same value for him in a trade than if we traded him NOW. Just a thought.

The latest Gammons column includes these little tidbits:

The Reds also told the Astros they would move Junior Griffey to Houston – for four top prospects.

Um, four top prospects for The Injury King? No thanks.

• The 'Stros right now plan to open the season with Willy Taveras in center field and Craig Biggio at second base, which means Chris Burke will either go back to the minors or stay in the majors as a utilityman/left fielder.

Yeah, I figured as much. I wonder if Gerry Hunsicker somehow knew that this would happen when he resigned in protest over the Biggio signing. To be fair, Biggio is one of the best Astros of all time, and a Hall of Famer. But to be honest, he's past in prime, is no longer a defensive asset at 2nd, and he's now blocking our top prospect. Burke as a utilityman? Why not Biggio as a utilityman? Lord knows he's played more positions than Burke. You could put Biggio anywhere except 3rd or SS and he wouldn't completely embarrass himself. But instead we're going to put him where he'll prevent our best up-and-coming player from getting AB's. Makes sense to me. Moreover, where does this leave our OF? If it's Lane / Taveras / Scott, I guess I'm all right with it. If it's Lane / Taveras / Palmeiro, I'm pissed - Biggio, Taveras, and Palmeiro getting playing time over Burke and Scott? Urge to kill....rising.....

• The Astros' fifth-starter battle seems to be between Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding, who are both out of options, but if 25-year-old righty Ezequiel Astacio keeps pitching well he may fill the spot. If Duckworth or Redding doesn't grab the spot, Astacio could go to Triple-A New Orleans for a couple of starts, then be ready when the Astros need a fifth starter sometime after the first week of the regular season.

I'm of the opinion that Redding and Duckworth both have decent enough potential and trade value that simply releasing them wouldn't make sense, so unless we can find trade partners for both of them (unlikely), I'm hoping we can trade one of them, make the other the #5 starter, and send Astacio to the bullpen or AAA. Why are we trying to rush Astacio to the big leagues when he's never thrown a pitch above AA? Work him in slowly....sheesh.

Vanderiblt plays Wichita St. tonight in Memorial in the 2nd round of the NIT. If we win another game or two I think we might play Texas A&M, which would lead to much trash-talking between JT and I.

A lot of baseball rumors floating around out there...

1. The Devil Rays are interested in Mike Lamb as their DH. Well, great. I'd like to trade Lamb, since I think he had a career year last year, but we do kinda need a backup 3B and a LH bat off the bench. He's a good fit for us right now. Unless the D-Rays want to give up Kazmir or Upton...

2. The Twins are going to release Mike Restovich, since he's out of options. Sign him up! He's no All-Star, but he's 25, can play RF or LF, and mashes lefties (900+ OPS in 60 career AB's). When we lose Biggio and Palmeiro (hopefully) next year, he'd make a fine 4th or 5th OF behind Lane / Taveras / Berkman / Scott.

3. The Washington Nationals are interested in a backup middle infielder. Want some Viz? We have a similar but better player in Eric Bruntlett, and Brooks Conrad waiting in the minors, so how about Viz for some Big League Chew? Well, seriously, how about Viz for some bullpen help? They've got...Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Antonio Osuna....alternatively, what about Redding + Viz / Bruntlett for Termel Sledge(Hammer)?

I'm driving down to Phoenix tomorrow. Planning on catching 2 spring training games a day on Wednesday and Thursday. Andy and JT, you guys better post while I'm gone.

Astros won 6-3 today, behind a solid 5 inning / 2 ER / 5K performance from Backe, and Luke Scott going 3-for-4 with 2 RBI's. If Scott doesn't make the team as at least a reserve OF out of spring training, it'll be a travesty.

Other than that, not too much to report. The Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade went through; now that I think about it, Phillips might not be that great: he's 28, already at the age when many catchers start to decline, and Tim Redding still has some potential. I'd like to see them try and trade him for bullpen help now - Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler both pitched well today, but Franco / Harville has sucked, leaving us with 3 solid relievers: Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler. You'd sure like to have more than that. Redding + ? = Urbina? As far as catchers go, I made a post a while back about possible free agents, and the only really good one this coming offseason is Ramon Hernandez, whom the Padres are trying to sign to an extension. Hope they don't, or we may be stuck with someone worse (!!) than Brad Ausmus next year.

More Berkman analysis:

Apparently Lance gets 10.5 million this year, and 14.5 million for the next 5 years. This all adds up to a total of 83 million. So, a 6 year / 83 million dollar deal. Here's how it compares to a few other contracts AT THE TIME they were given:

Player Ages Years Cost Position Injury (last 3 OPS+'s) RangeFactor

Lance 29-34 6 83 RF Knee 152,137,161 1.74
Vladi 28-32 5 70 RF Back 133,162,144 2.03
Mags 31-37 7 100 RF Knee 135,152,142 2.10

So I stand by my statement yesterday - this signing is somewhere in-between the incredible value that was Vladi's contract and the abomination that was Mags's deal. A few things to note: Lance has been slightly better offensively than both Vladi and Mags, but his defense is noticeably worse, which is why I think it's likely he'll eventually move to 1B. This move will make him less valuable, as a 1000 OPS is rarer for a RF than it is for a 1B. However, there aren't any comparable OF's to Berkman that will be free agents in '06, and he's a popular player. I said at the beginning of the offseason that my main recommendation for the organization was to sign Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals. Well, they got 6 year and 3 year deals, respectively. I've got nothing to complain about today - we have our two best players locked up for a few years.

Luke Scott hit his 3rd HR of the spring last year in a 7-4 loss to the Blue Jays, and Morgan Ensberg drew three walks. A few of our #5 hopefuls pitched poorly:

Carlos Hernandez: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB/ 1 K - Like he has all spring, Carlos walked more than he struck out, and he's been very hittable. At this point, he's just not a big-league pitcher.

Tim Redding: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB / 1 K - According to a report I read yesterday, there were numerous scouts from other teams in attendance, and our announcers were saying that a trade is basically a lock. This means that once Redding is gone (unfortunately, I have to say good riddance), it looks like the #5 job is down to Brandon Duckworth and Ezequiel Astacio. Count me in the Duckworth corner - with our bullpen looking pretty rough these days, Astacio could help out there, and getting a young pitching prospect experience out of the bullpen before just throwing him in to a starting job has worked wonders in the past (Roy Oswalt?), and not just for the Astros. It's a big step from AA to #5 starter, which is what Astacio would be doing. I think we should ease him in to his eventual role.

My last concern this spring is that Biggio is still starting just about every game at 2nd base. I'm pretty angry about this. If Biggio starts the season at 2nd, that means our OF will be some combination of Lane / Taveras / Scott / Palmeiro, and while Scott and Taveras have had good springs, BURKE IS OUR BEST PROSPECT!! HE PUT UP AN 893 OPS IN A PITCHER'S PARK LAST YEAR!! HE'S ALREADY 25; IT'S TIME TO LET HIM PLAY!! Yeah, Biggio, I'm sure you would rather play 2nd, but too bad. Get thee back to left field.

I'd then set up our 25-man roster like-a so: (starters come first)

OF: Biggio / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro / Taveras (Taveras or Scott to AAA when Lance returns)
IF: Ensberg / Everett / Burke / Bagwell / Lamb / Vizcaino / Bruntlett
C: Ausmus / Chavez

SP: Oswalt / Clemens / Backe / Pettitte / Duckworth / Astacio
RP: Lidge / Qualls / Wheeler / Harville / Franco / Springer

That's a pretty powerless backup IF after Lamb, and that back of the bullpen is AWFUL. Just AWFUL. Probably my biggest disappointment this offseason, even more than losing Beltran, was Purpura's absolute failure to sign any decent, proven reliever (Chris Hammond, Steve Reed, Jeff Nelson, Antonio Osuna, etc.), and instead sign Turk Wendell, John Franco, and Dave Burba (combined age: 119). Last I heard, the Tigers were still looking to move Ugueth Urbina; think they'd be interested in Tim Redding or Luke Scott or...anyone? At this point, our bullpen is a catastrophe waiting to happen. If Urbina would consent to being the 8th inning guy (which is what he'd be with the Tigers anyway), that would be a godsend to our bullpen, allowing everyone to drop down in the depth chart, and giving either Franco or Springer the big ol' boot.

BREAKING NEWS: Lance Berkman signs a 5 year / 85 million dollar deal with the 'Stros.

EDIT: Actually, apparently, the 85 million INCLUDES the 1 year / 10.5 million dollar deal, making the final contract a 6 year / 85 million dollar deal. Even better! Please...stay....healthy....

No contract specifics, but it works out to about 14 mil / year. It's hard to know which contract to compare this to:

Vladi's 5 year / 70 million dollar contract last offseason (what a bargain!), because Vladi, like Lance, had some injury concerns (back), although they were more severe concerns....

or Magglio's 7 year / 100 million dollar deal (NOT a bargain). Lance has been better than Magglio pretty much every year since he came into the league.

My thoughts on the contract are that it's a pretty good one, particularly if Lance's knee fully heals. It seems like this was the minimum amount it would take to sign Lance; he may well have commanded more on the open market. Berkman is an excellent hitter; here are his OPS from the past 5 years:

929
1051
982
927
1016

That's an elite offensive player. His defense has been steady in both LF and RF, and he even managed to not embarrass himself playing CF. I think he's likely to move to 1B after '06 when Bagwell leaves, unless Todd Self starts hitting for power.

Again, this contract really hinges on how Lance returns from his knee. I hope he's healed in May, because he's a great, popular player, on a team that will probably need all the offense it can get the next few years as we work in our prospects.

So, here's how I see our team shaping up the next few years:

LF Jason Lane
CF ?
RF Lance Berkman / Luke Scott
3B Morgan Ensberg
SS Adam Everett
2B Chris Burke
1B Todd Self / Lance Berkman
C ?

SP Roy Oswalt
SP Brandon Backe
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP ?
SP ?

CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?

Bench

OF Willy Taveras
OF Luke Scott
IF Brooks Conrad
IF Mitch Einerston
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Carlos Hernandez

That's not too bad a base to build off of the next few years. The most gaping holes are catcher, center field, 2 starting pitcher slots, and the bullpen.

With that in mind, there is a rumor that the Dodgers - Mets are finalizing a Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade. To which I say: CRAP! The Mets need a #5 starter with Trachsel out; this seems like the perfect opportunity to get rid of Tim Redding, AND Jason Phillips can play catcher! Phillips was incredibly bad last year (624 OPS), but he had an 815 OPS in '03, is 28, and is an average defender. He'd be a perfectly acceptable stopgap for a year or two until Hector Gimenez is ready or we realize he's not the answer and we sign a free agent.

Summary of today: good job with the Berkman signing, start looking towards the future, and trade for a catcher!

Spring training stats don't matter...
but they're still fun to talk about. Particularly for players trying to make the team. I'm not too concerned about how Biggio / Bagwell / Ausmus / Oswalt are doing, because they have an established level of performance. But the youngsters; well, that's another story. With that in mind, here are some interesting stats from a few of the young guys:

Jason Lane: 6 extra base hits, slugging .700, in 30 AB's. His defense might never be suited to CF, but he can hit for power. I'm hoping for a .280 / .350 / .500 line.

Adam Everett / Willy Taveras: hitting .276 and .308, respectively, with 7 SB and 0 CS.....but they've combined for 2 extra base hits in 55 AB's. Ouch. Still, no one really expected them to hit for power. But both of them + Ausmus in a lineup is a lot of guys that can't slug .400

Chris Burke: the bad? He's hitting .261. The good? He's slugging .522. I still don't understand why the Astros seem so set on having Biggio start at 2B when we have our TOP PROSPECT ready to go at that position.

Morgan Ensberg: well, he's not really young, but he's got 3 doubles and a HR in only 22 AB's, so maybe he's rediscovering his power stroke. I'll take an average of '03 and '04, which would put him at .280 / .370 / .450 or so. He'd make a fine #2 hitter, in my opinion.

Luke Scott: He's slugging .667, and he's left handed. He and
Carlos Rivera: have been a powerful combination (Rivera is slugging .824). I hope at least one of these guys makes the team, as we have one truly dangerous left handed hitter (Mike Lamb) at the moment.

Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth both have solid BB/K ratios (2/6 and 2/7, respectively), which I like to see.

Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, has SUCKED. A lot. 3 HR, 6 ER, and 5 walks in 5 innings. He's not close to being ready. Send him down to AAA and hope he finds his missing velocity sometime.

Chad Qualls should be our 8th inning set-up guy. 6 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K's? Pretty solid, Mr. Qualls.

John Franco. 6 hits. 6 walks. 3.2 innings. And the Mets got Beltran.

Chad Harville has been almost as bad as Franco. 7 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings. Yuck.

Ezequiel Astacio: 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K's, 0 runs in 3.1 innings. That's pretty good.


Summary:

Well, based on all this, here's my Opening Day Lineup:

Biggio LF
Ensberg 3B
Bagwell 1B
Lane CF
Scott RF
Burke 2B
Everett SS
Ausmus C

Oswalt SP
Clemens SP
Backe SP
Pettitte SP
Brandon Duckworth / Tim Redding SP (other one gets traded)

Brad Lidge
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Chad Harville
John Franco / Mike Gallo
Ezequiel Astacio

Before I talk about the Astros, did anyone see my alma mater, Vanderbilt, beat Indiana IN Bloomington 67-60 in the first round of the NIT last night? The 'Dores lead the whole way, with a matchup zone defense and Corey Smith's 22 points or so leading the charge. A great win for Vandy, and it might just get Mike Davis fired. I think Vandy can definitely win a few more games in the NIT.

Ok, Astros time:

You probably already saw that the Stros let Pete Munro go yesterday.Garner is hinting that the race is between Ezequiel & Burba for the 5th spot. Have you been following Ausmus' batting stats this spring?--they're ridiculous. 2 for 2 again yesterday with a homer. Apparently he's added a leg kick to his swing. How much would he need to raise his BA over last year's to actually become an offensive asset?On the other hand, how many more runners would he have to throw out compared to last year to actually become a defensive asset?
- Dad

I saw a bit surprised (but not disappointed) when I saw the Astros released Pete Munro. We need to start eliminating 5th starter options, and Munro has the least potential of any possible #5 starter, and had a bad spring so far to boot. I like the move. I didn't know that Garner had narrowed it down to Astacio and Burba - if that's true, I hope Redding has another good spring start so we can get decent value from him in a trade, and I also think Duckworth is out of options. I'd still like to see Duckworth or Redding get the #5 starter position, since otherwise we'll have to release them, and give Astacio a little time in a middle relief role or at AAA. Dave Burba is, well, old, and I don't think he has too much left.

Ausmus is indeed having a crazy spring training, as are Luke Scott and Carlos Rivera. I did read that Ausmus added a leg kick to his swing, which appears to be helping, but I still trust his career batting average of .255 over 4730 AB's over a hot spring. Still, we've got no better options, so any improvement over last year's .248 / .306 / .325 would be really, really nice. Luke Scott has been great this spring; I'm pulling for him to make the team as a backup OF and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. He's a lefty power bat on a team that currently has one (Mike Lamb) while Lance is out. If Lamb starts, and you need a late inning pinch-hitter against a righty, your options would be Orlando Palmeiro or Jose Vizcaino if you're looking for a lefty batter. Similar comments would apply to Carlos Rivera, who's going crazy this spring. Unfortunately, he plays 1B, where Bagwell / Lamb / Lane might have him covered, but if he can learn an OF position that'd be great.

I just read Scott Barzilla's column on AstrosDaily (link in the upper left), and it's excellent. Check it out ASAP. Gotta run.

Fantasy baseball ramblings: You'd better get a top-4 pick in your fantasy baseball draft. A-Rod, Beltran, Pujols and Vladi are light years ahead of everyone else. If you have the fifth pick, who the heck do you take? Barry? Johan? Manny? Randy? Tom Berenger?

I've been noticing that third base is STACKED. There are at least a dozen third basemen with 30-homer potential: A-Rod, Rolen, Beltre, Ramirez, Chavez, Blalock, Huff, Mora, Chipper, Lowell, Glaus, Blake. Not to mention Vinny, David Wright, Koskie, Boone, Mueller, Bellhorn...

The middle infield positions are down though. Big time. Second base especially, where six of the top players (Soriano, Kent, Boone, Giles, Reyes, Vidro) have declined drastically the past year or so, mostly due to age or injury. Shortstop is not the coveted position it once was ever since A-Rod left. After Tejada, Jeter's going downhill and Nomar's anything but a sure thing. I want to put Michael Young ahead of both of them. Still, there are a ton of second-tier players, but none are going to save your team: Renteria, Cabrera, Rollins, Furcal... A big question mark is Carlos Guillen.

Well that's all for now. Maybe I'll come out with some sleeper picks or something. I bet Lane will be up there.

Rumors are still circulating that we're looking to acquire a "true centerfielder" before the season starts. The Tigers released Alex Sanchez today, but I feel dirty even mentioning his name. He has 68 walks in 1351 career ABs. But his .364 SLG is somehow better than Palmeiro's.

I say we take another look at Marlon Byrd. I forgot all about him until I read today that he's hitting 10-for-24 for the Spring. He's 27, and hit a decent .303/.366/.418 in 2003. He has the potential to be a contributor but right now is blocked by old man Lofton. And the Phillies suffered through his horrendous 2004 campaign, so probably won't want much for him.

I'm not sure how Lane is progressing as a centerfielder, but my instincts tell me not good. He's built to be a corner outfielder. If we do acquire a Marlon Byrd or a Randy Winn or a Mike Cameron, we'd be crowding our starters. But we'd be assured of a decent lineup until Berkman returns:

Biggio LF
Burke 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Byrd CF
Everett SS
Ausmus C

When Berkman comes back, we'll have to cut the playing time of either Byrd or Burke. Or hell, maybe even Biggio.

I was relieved to see that Pettitte was scratched from his start because of a mild ankle sprain he suffered when he fell down some steps. Thank God it wasn't his elbow. It's a bad time of year to be a Cubs fan. Prior and Wood are both nursing mild injuries. Not a good sign for them.

A short Yahoo paragraph has me thinking...which would you rather have to start the season:

Option 1
Biggio LF
Taveras CF
Lane RF
Burke 2B

Option 2
Biggio LF
Lane CF
Palmeiro RF
Burke 2B

Option 3
Lane LF
Taveras CF
Palmeiro RF
Biggio 2B

Basically, you're choosing 2 of Taveras, Burke, and Palmeiro for the month or so until Berkman returns. The easy way out is to say Burke is a much better prospect than Taveras (he is), so we go with Option 1 or 2. Then I'd say I would rather see Taveras get a shot than Palmeiro, so I like Option 1. This would give us a probable Opening Day lineup of something like:

Biggio LF
Everett 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Burke 2B
Taveras CF
Ausmus C

Maybe you switch Everett and Taveras, or bat Taveras leadoff; it doesn't really matter that much.

The only thing is, the Yahoo report seemed to assume that it would come down to EITHER Taveras or Burke winning a starting job, because the Astros would "like to shift Biggio back to 2nd if Taveras wins the CF job to start the season." Well, frankly, that sucks, and it means we'd be going with Option 2, and essentially be choosing Palmeiro over Burke for a starting position. I've said it before, and I've said it again: Craig Biggio has said many times in the past that he's a team player, that he'll do what the team needs to do, etc., etc. Well, it's time to pay up, Bidge, and play outfield - at the very least until Lance comes back. Otherwise our Opening Day starting RF will have a career .348 SLG%.

Oh, and Notre Dame got screwed. Northern Iowa???? What crap.

So the Astros scratched Andy Pettitte from a start (not good news, and does Phil Garner really expect Pettitte to be 100% for our 2nd game?) and replaced him with Tim Redding, who promptly gave up 1 hit, 1 walk, and 2 HBP's and had 6 K's in 4 innings. Before you get too excited, 4 of those strikeouts were called, and Redding himself said the umpire was being "generous" against lefties. Redding does still have the most talent of any of our 5th starter options, but all things equal, I'd like us to look to trade him after a good showing like this. Brandon Duckworth has also pitched fairly well (6.2 IP, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.05 ERA), so we might have a 5th starter or trade bait.

Andy, I'm not that mad that Biggio is PLAYING 2nd base this spring - I'm mad that he's STARTING at 2nd base. Biggio is going to make the team no matter what, and we know about what to expect. Chris Burke needs all the playing time against major leaguers that he can get, but he's coming off the bench every day. That's what I don't like.

Good news from today's 8-7 win over the Braves:

Jason Lane had 2 HR's and 5 RBI's.
Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls pitched well.
We won a game.

Bad news:

Craig Biggio started at 2nd base. Again.
Roy Oswalt struggled a bit, but honestly, he's proven himself enough, and he still had 4 K's / 3 innings.
Adam Everett batted 2nd again, basically assuring us (if our Opening Day Lineup starts off with Biggio / Everett) of 2 of our worst OBP's at the top of the lineup. I'm resigned to Biggio, but I'd much rather see Ensberg or Burke bat 2nd.
Russ Springer gave up 4 hits and 3 runs in 1 inning.


Honestly, it seems like a bad dream to me that we are considering all of the following guys to help our bullpen (ages on right):

Dave Burba 38
Russ Springer 36
John Franco 44
Turk Wendell 37

I mean, DAMN. Seriously, why not give a prospect a chance over has-beens? If Qualls / Harville / Wheeler / Astacio don't make the team over some of those guys, we suck.

Roy Oswalt was named our Opening Day Starter today. I hate to say this but it's probably the best news I've heard this winter. Oswalt should get the nod; although Clemens was arguably the better pitcher last year, he's also 42, so I like Oswalt more. What I can't say I completely agree with is having Pettitte pitch 2nd in the rotation. Yeah, yeah, you have to go righty-lefty-righy, but Pettitte is still recovering, and I don't know if he'll be 100%. If he is, fine, but I wouldn't mind seeing Oswalt - Clemens - Backe - Pettitte. Maybe I'm wrong, and hopefully Pettitte will be fine, but he is coming off a pretty serious injury.

WHERE THE HECK IS MY BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2005???

We lost to the Cards 4-2 in our last ST game; Backe pitched well to start but then walked 3 batters in a row to give up a few runs. Then, in the most encouraging news this spring, Ezequiel Astacio came in a pitched 3 scoreless innings. I'm not sure if I want him thrown into starting right away, but if he keeps pitching like this, it'll be hard to stop him.

Ugly, ugly game yesterday. I'm sure it made Drew happy, though. John Franco walked 4 batters and hit a batter in limited action AND he sucks against righties, so I'm not looking forward to a year of him. Dave Burba, who I thought was a decent risk as a spot starter / dark horse 5th starter, got ripped. Turk Wendell was also terrible, so it looks like our Old Guys Triumvirate of Franco / Burba / Wendell might not turn out so well. Oops.

Baseball Prospectus had a few notes on the Astros today:

They like Chad Qualls to be the 8th inning set-up guy for Brad Lidge, essentially because a) Harville is too wild b) Franco is too old and c) Dan Wheeler isn't as good as he showed late last year. I agree, and think that Qualls might be a bright spot for the Astros this year, with a possibility of 70-80 innings of ~3.00-3.50 ERA.

They also say that one of the first signs of how the season will go will come early, when the Astros decide between Vizcaino, Biggio, and Burke at 2B. If we fall into the "proven veteran" trap and start Viz or Biggio, we're likely to expect to contend all year and make one last run with Biggio / Clemens / Berkman / Ausmus. If we do the correct thing and start Burke, it means we realize we're not likely to be as good as the Cubs or Cardinals barring a lot of things going right, and that it's more important right now to get our top prospects (Lane, Burke, Astacio?) playing time. I also agree here, and can't even stomach the thought of Vizcaino instead of Burke starting at 2B. At least Biggio has been good to the Astros in the past.

JT and Andy were both right and Peter Gammons was wrong: Carlos Hernandez is not out of options. So look for him to go back to AAA, and it's likely one of Redding / Munro / Duckworth will get the #5 spot, and two will be released / traded.

I think we may have found three new Dan Miceli's.

Old fogies Burba, Franco and Wendell combined to give up 17 runs on Tuesday against our 2000 opening-day starter, Scott Elarton. We lost 21-4. Good thing these games don't count.

Some more bad news: Lidge gave up 2 runs, Burke went 0-for-3, Biggio committed an error at second base, and Orlando Palmeiro actually drove in a run. Hope he doesn't have a good spring and earn some playing time.

Good news (if there is any): Bagwell went 2-for-2 and drove in a run, Qualls and Springer pitched great, and Astacio got a brief look, although he only faced three batters (Two reached base, the other struck out).

I haven't heard much about Bagwell's new stance this spring. I read somehwere that Garner said he'd be happy if Bagwell hit 10 homers this year, as long as he ket driving in runs. I hope we get a few more dingers than that.

Clemens starts tomorrow night against Atlanta. Let's hope we keep them under double digits.

I dunno, Andy. I think that I saw that same blurb that you mentioned - Beane wants Chris Burke.

The latest Gammons column has some pretty interesting Astros tidbits:

The Astros keep pestering the Mets about Mike Cameron, but it is looking less and less likely that New York will move Cameron because they have to get a strong corner bat in return, and right now there may not be any on the market." One possibility for Houston is Terrmel Sledge, as Washington is looking for a bopper and will move Sledge and/or Endy Chavez. Right now, if Craig Biggio moves back to second base, as he would like to do, then until Lance Berkman comes back, the 'Stros outfielders are Jason Lane, Willy Taveras (who has temporarily given up switch-hitting), possibly Chris Burke and Orlando Palmeiro.
Houston has four bubble pitchers out of options: Tim Redding, Carlos Hernandez, Peter Munro and Brandon Duckworth. … Oh yes. On Friday, the first four Houston pitchers were Clemens, 42, John Franco, 44, Dave Burba, 38 and youngster Russ Springer, 36.

It's too bad that Biggio is so intent on playing 2nd. I see why Hunsicker may have resigned in protest of the re-signing of Biggio; he's just complicating things now. I'm glad we're still pestering the Mets about Cameron, but if they want a strong corner bat for a guy coming off wrist surgery then fugheddaboutit. The Termell Sledge rumor interests me a lot - here's a 27 year old LH bat who put up a 799 OPS last year during his first big league stint (399 AB's) and can handle all 3 outfield positions. Plus the Nationals GM, Jim Bowden, is awful - he signed Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla to multi-year deals. Maybe two of our "out of options" pitchers could get Sledge in return. Redding and Duckworth for Sledge? Man, I'd love that.

So, in conclusion: don't trade Burke. Biggio needs to suck it up and be an OF or utility guy. Trade for Termell Sledge. Our #5 starters (Redding, Hernandez, Munro, Duckworth) are all pitching terribly at the moment. Luke Scott is ripping the ball. An OF of Biggio / Sledge / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro, with Taveras getting a full year in AAA? My choice for #5 starter (assuming we trade Redding) is probably Carlos Hernandez - we can't send him back to the minors and he still has some potential unlike, say, Pete Munro. I say give him one last look, and if not, maybe Ezequiel Astacio can step in.

Billy Beane is apparently enamored with our boy Chris Burke. Apparently he really wanted to take Burke straight out of Tennessee a few years ago, when he broke most of Todd Helton's school records (!). But Beane drafted Crosby instead. Beane usually has a keen eye for talent, especially when it comes to young players.

Would we want to consider a trade with Oakland? They're still trying to get rid of Byrnes, either to the Mets or the Pirates. We could get Cameron in CF and move Biggio to full time 2B. And keep in mind we have another solid middle infield prospect in Brooks Conrad for the future.

Any takers?

You know I haven't posted in a while when Drew Sanders gets on my case about it. This is the guy who wrote 2 Tournament of Uber-Toughness updates and then left us all hanging when he got to the semifinals. And HE'S telling me that I need to post more often. Wow.

Anyway, Drew is pretty excited about the Indians this year, with good reason:

Their projected lineup:

Coco Crisp, CF
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Travis Hafner, DH
Juan Gonzalez, RF
Victor Martienz, C
Ben Broussard, 1B
Aaron Boone / Jose Hernandez, 3B
Jody Gerut / Casey Blake, LF
Alex Cora / Jhonny Peralta, 2B

and their projected rotation:

C.C. Sabathia
Kevin Millwood
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee
Scott Elarton

and their bullpen:

Bob Wickman
Bob Howry
David Riske
Rafael Betancourt
Jason Davis
Arthur Rhodes
Scott Sauerbeck

That's a hell of a roster. It's hard to pick against a team with Johan Santana (who Drew apparently thinks was a fluke this year, to which I say ARE YOU INSANE!!??), but I think the Indians might just do it this year. And if they get Martinez / Hafner / Broussard / Peralta / Sabathia / Lee signed to 3 or 4 year deals, watch out for a mid-90's revival of the Indians franchise, when at one time or another they had the following players on offense:

Kenny Lofton
Roberto Alomar (back when he was really good)
Manny Ramirez
Jim Thome
David Justice
Travis Fryman
Richie Sexson
Brian Giles
Sandy Alomar Jr.

probably some other beasts, too, but that's enough.


Not too much Astros news lately. All our possible #5 starters sucked in our first ST game; each gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Yay. Then Roy Oswalt dominated yesterday, and Brandon Backe looked good today, and Jason Lane and Luke Scott homered. I like Scott as a darkhorse to make the team and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. Biggio started at 2B the other day, too, which makes me hurt all over.

I'm still waiting for BP2005. Damn you, Amazon!

I'm still waiting for my copy of BP2005, even though ThrowsLikeAGirl got her a few days ago. What the heck? I want to read insults about Viz and Ausmus, too. From what I've read BP is also including Most Comparable Players on their Player Cards. Inspired by a recent post by Aaron Gleeman, here is our starting lineup and rotation, based on Most Comparable Players that you might have heard of at that age:

C Bob Boone (Ausmus)
1B Frank Thomas (Bagwell)
2B Chris Burke (not enough playing time for a comp.)
SS Ray Boone (Everett)
3B Matt LeCroy (Ensberg)
RF Tim Salmon / Magglio Ordonez (Berkman)
CF Jason Lane (see Burke note)
LF Lou Whitaker (Biggio)

SP Mike Mussina (Roy Oswalt)
SP Tom Seaver (Roger Clemens)
SP Jack McDowell (Andy Pettitte)
SP Cliff Politte (Brandon Backe)
SP Elmer Dessens (Pete Munro)

CL Todd Jones (Brad Lidge) note: Mariano Rivera is also n that list, so don't freak out yet.

Bench

CI Chris Singleton (Mike Lamb)
MI Rey Sanchez (Jose Vizcaino)
OF Jerry Hairston (Orlando Palmeiro) note: Jerry Hairston's Jr.'s dad


So, we've got the Boone brothers, 2 Hall of Famers in Frank Thomas and Lou Whitaker, an excellent RF in Salmon or Ordonez, and a big front 3 in Mussina, Seaver, and Jack McDowell.

Pretty much what you'd expect, I guess, and it's too bad Bagwell / Biggio / Clemens are so old.

From Rotoworld:

Morgan Ensberg said his slow start last season was due in part to an elbow injury. This season, he's healthy, and manager Phil Garner plans to use him in the meat of the order.
"He needs to hit doubles and home runs, because that's the way you drive in runs," Garner said. "We need him to be a big run producer, and he's swinging the bat good this spring." It's not inconceivable that Ensberg could even open the season as Houston's cleanup hitter behind Jeff Bagwell with Lance Berkman injured.

The cleanup spot? Maybe. I like Lane there right now. But we'll see.

Just bought 4 tickets to the Wilco show @ the Orpheum (old concert hall in Flagstaff) on April 27. I'm pumped. Hopefully I'll know some cute girls by then...

Astros news....there's a new (subscriber) article up at Baseball Prospectus, where their main everyday writer, Joe Sheehan, picks his "Up" and "Down" teams over the offseason. His Up team? The Cleveland Indians, led by Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, and an underrated bullpen and some solid prospects. His Down team? The Houston Astros. Sheehan's main reasons why:

On February 28, though, it's hard to see how the Astros can repeat last year's success. They are going to lose a ton of runs from even last year's average attack--seventh in the NL in EqA. Carlos Beltran is gone. Jeff Kent is gone. Their best hitter, Lance Berkman, is going to miss at least a few weeks rehabbing a knee injury. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are a year older. Even in the best-case scenario, where Chris Burke and Jason Lane are allowed to win jobs and both hit to expectations, that just makes up for the losses of Beltran and Kent. At their best, the Astros are carrying Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus and a pitcher. If you have even one more low-OBP hitter in the lineup, it becomes almost impossible to sustain an offense.

The Astros aren't going to make it up on the pitching side. Keeping Roger Clemens around just kept them running in place. They still have the same depth issues as they did a year ago, with a host of injury cases and suspects vying to fill out the rotation behind Clemens and Roy Oswalt and the bullpen in front of Brad Lidge. A healthy Andy Pettitte makes up some of that, but there's still the question of whether two starters can be found from among Brandon Backe, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding, or even a longshot like Ezequiel Astacio.

Last year's playoff run happened because the front end of the Astros' roster included some very dominant players. They're down two stars this year, and the likelihood that Clemens and Lidge can match '04's work is slim. They don't have the depth to make up for that kind of slippage. Not only are the Astros unlikely to return to the postseason, I doubt they can stay in contention.

Ouch. I agree with most of what Sheehan writes; our offense can't reasonably be expected to be even equal to last year's, and barring Pettitte being awesome all year, Backe pitching like he did in Sept / Oct., and Ezequiel Astacio becoming the next Oswalt, I don't see our pitching being that great either. I guess it's time to take an objective look at the Astros; you might not like what you see.

I'll still watch damn near every game, though, and root like hell.

TGIF. Don't have too many plans for the weekend; it's supposed to get all the way up to 41 degrees on Sunday, so I might go hiking or something.

Mike Lamb brought 5 gloves with him to spring training: 3B, 2B, 1B, C, and OF. I find this amusing. Talk about a Renaissance man. Can you imagine if Lamb could be a not-horrible defensive catcher? Awwwwww yeah.

Craig Biggio has said he'd like to move back to 2nd, but I honestly think that he would be pretty bad defensively there. I don't care if he played 2nd for 10 years, he's 39, and he didn't have good defensive numbers 3 years ago. So Burke damn well better win that job. Hey, maybe Biggio wants to move back to catcher?

JT says the Tigers don't really need a 3B or a 2B, since they've got Brandon Inge and Omar Infante. I think he's right, and I also think Dave Dombrowski is a moron, so we might just be able to give them Tim Redding and some barbeque and call it even.

We're getting a co-ed softball league together in the next few weeks, and I mentioned it to my class and the hottest girl in the class wants to play. Maybe I can set her up with one of my friends - it's the right thing to do.

One more class to go, then I'm done for the week. By the way, thanks for the MLB.TV info, Chen, I think I'm going to do the All Access Option pretty soon.

I like it, Andres. The Mets want Urbina, and the Tigers need either a 3B or a 2B. I'll stick with your Lamb-and-Redding proposal for now, with the possibility of throwing in Brooks Conrad or Brandon Duckworth or whoever. Getting Cameron without giving up Burke would be a steal. Alternatively, if you decide to give up Burke, hopefully you could trade for Polanco.

Biggest bargains of the offseason:

Nomar: 1/8
Woody Williams: 1/4 (I think)
Chris Hammond: 1/750K
Johan Santana: 4/48
Wade Miller: 1/3.5
Richard Hidalgo: 1/5

Notice a trend? Most of those 'best deals' are short deals for players likely to bounce back. And any deal where you pay Johan Santana less than Troy Glaus or Richie Sexson or Magglio Ordonez has to go on there.

Per Rotoworld.com, The Mets are interested in Ugueth Urbina, and are willing to ship away Mike Cameron for him. Have we found our third team in Detroit?

The Tigers already have Fernando Vina at second, and their outfield of Magglio, Alex Sanchez, Rondell White, Bobby Higginson and Craig Monroe is already crowded. They seem to be in a win-now mentality, so they probably don't want too many prospects in exchange for losing their premiere closer. Unless the plan on using Carlos Guillen at third, they'll a three-bagger. And they always need pitching. This won't work, but how about Lamb and Redding? Maybe throw in a Luke Scott as well.

Quick poll: What's been the best bargain of the offseason so far, for any team? I might say Nomar for $8 million with incentives. That was damn good.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Lance Berkman has rejected 3 / 36 and 4 / 48 offers and instead has basically demanded 5 / 15-17 per year. Well, that's too bad, as 3/36 and 4 / 48 are almost exactly what I had hoped we would offer. But then Magglio Ordonez just had to go sign that crazy contract with Detroit, and now Berkman (correctly) wants as much as him. With so much deferred money going to Pettitte, Bagwell, and Oswalt next year, it might be a little tricky to give Lance 5 / 75 or thereabouts. In addition, we HAVE to see how he bounces back from his knee injury before we go throwing gobs of money at him.

Bad choice of words yesterday; I shouldn't have said "my dream world". What I was getting at is if you get desperate and trade for Mike Cameron by getting rid of Chris Burke, you could probably get Polanco from the Phillies. But it didn't come out quite right. And I still like saying Byung-Hyun Kim, so we should trade for him too.

Question about MLB.TV : does anyone know if it has the same properties as TiVo? That is, if I miss the game, can I come back and watch it later that night or something? Or just the Condensed Game?

Time to go toss the ol' baseball around.

My dream world:

Astros trade Taylor Bucholz to the Phillies for Placido Polanco.
Astros trade Jason Lane to the Mets for Mike Cameron.
Astros trade Brooks Conrad and Luke Scott to the Red Sox for BH Kim.
Ezequiel Astacio starts off in a middle relief role, excels, and becomes the 5th starter when the Astros sell high on Brandon Backe by trading him to the Reds for Austin Kearns.

Look, I know our payroll could never support that, and it seems crazy to trade away all those prospects, but here it is:

Prospects are never, ever, a sure thing, and every player on the right side of those transactions has had success in the major leagues. Bucholz struggled last year; maybe the Phillies want him back. Lane might be pretty good, but he's 28 - his best years might already be behind him. In addition all of the "right hand" guys appear to be undervalued by their current teams. Polanco might be the best overall defensive infielder in baseball, and he puts up a .780 OPS. Mike Cameron slugged .479 with a wrist injury last year and has consistently been one of the best defensive CF's in baseball for the last 5 years. BH Kim is 25 and has averaged over a K / inning for his career. Austin Kearns was a top prospect, put up a .907 OPS his rookie year, and just needs to get healthy.

AND all of these players don't really have a good fit with their current teams - Polanco and Cameron want to be starters at their respective positions, Kim just needs a change of scenery and a regular starting job, and Kearns is in a crowded OF in Cincy.

I have no idea how all of that will work out - Polanco wants to start, but we have Burke / Everett, Cameron might be hurt for the first month (along with Berkman), Kim might piss all the good ol' boys off with the occasional one-finger-salute, and Kearns might be hurt all year, but that's how you win as a general manager - you see what's undervalued, and you go after it. I'm all for rebuilding, but the entire premise of statistical analysis is not OBP and OPS and UZR, it's buying high and selling low, it's looking for market inefficiencies, and that is EXACTLY what Polanco, Cameron, Kim and Kearns are. I'm sure we won't do any of those moves, but I can still dream.

Since I now live in friggin' Arizona, I can't watch any Astros games unless they're on national TV (in which case the Astros tend to suck) or Baseball Tonight (in which case I have to look at John Kruk's fat face and listen to Harold Reynolds talk about team chemistry). No thanks.

So MLB.TV, here I come. It's 'only' 79.95 for the whole year, and I'll be able to watch every Astros game (with the exception of when they play at Arizona), so I guess that's worth it. If any of you guys have ever subscribed to MLB.TV, tell me what you think.

Oh, and they have a free archive of the Astros top plays in 2004. Highlights:

Jeff Kent's Game 5 walk-off bomb in the NLCS. Goosebumps, baby. Goosebumps.
Astros turn a triple play on the Phillies and come back from 7-2 to win.
Pretty much anything invovling Carlos Beltran in the playoffs. Man, I'm gonna miss that guy.

I'm a little more down on Mike Cameron than I was yesterday. I don't like it, but starting with Biggio / Taveras / Lane and then moving to Biggio / Lane / Berkman is better than having to give up Burke, and the Mets don't seem to want to move Cameron for much less than a top prospect. So screw that.

I still like BH Kim, though. Better than Munro or Redding or some crap.

Speaking of Tim Redding, he's essentially said that he expects to get the 5th starter's spot or else he wants to be traded. I say just trade his ass now, because even in his best year, 2003, his K rate wasn't that great and he walked too many guys. Trade him to some team desperate for pitching and with an OF to spare (Rangers, Reds, Devil Rays).

A PTI-inspired rundown of recent events:

Looks like the Mike Cameron rumors aren't dead yet.

A proposed three-team deal (Astros get Cameron, A's get Chris Burke, Mets get Eric Byrnes) was nixed by the Mets. I don't know about this proposal. I understand that Burke kind of came out of nowhere to have an excellent year last year - he had slugged under .400 in Round Rock the year before. But maybe something 'clicked' last year. One of the posters at one of the Astros forums floated this trade proposal:

Astros get Cameron
Seattle gets Brooks Conrad and Tim Redding
NYM get Raul Ibanez

I like this offer more, although count me in the corner that thinks Conrad may eventually be better than Burke. One thing about Conrad, though - I think he's more likely to be coveted by saber-friendly teams. Which brings me to...

Peter Gammons reported Byung Hyun Kim is throwing better this spring than in the past, and the Red Sox are still looking to move him.

I'm all about BHK. Say what you will about his recent struggles or his 2001 World Series - here are his career numbers:

419.7 IP, 455 K's, 3.37 ERA

And he's 25 years old.

Here's the thing, though - Kim has repeatedly said he wants to start, not be a reliever. So trade Brooks Conrad and Luke Scott (another saber-friendly guy) for him, and you've got your new 5th starter.

So who, then, should we trade for Cameron? Well, Seattle still needs young pitching, and they do seem to love speed, so maybe....

Astros get Mike Cameron
Seattle gets Willy Taveras and Taylor Bucholz and Fernando Nieve
NYM get Raul Ibanez

Just a thought. I'd really like to acquire Cameron, and I'd like getting BHK almost as much, but I don't want to part with Chris Burke or Ezequiel Astacio. Too optimistic, huh?

I'm back. Just read a Richard Justice article (link at AstrosDaily), and I had a few comments:

Purpura would consider trading for a veteran center fielder, but it has to be someone who makes the Astros better in 2005 and beyond. If the Mets make Mike Cameron available, Purpura is interested.

I've read numerous times that Cameron is available. He doesn't like playing RF, particularly since he's been the best defensive CF in baseball on average during the last 4-5 years.

Predictions mean nothing. Predictions don't take into account that Lane and Burke might both be impact players offensively. They don't take into account that Taveras has blazing speed.

You can't steal first base.

This spring is about reassembling the puzzle, about hoping that Taveras, Lane and Burke can play, about hoping Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio have another productive season in them, about Ensberg regaining his power and Everett continuing down the road to being the National League's best shortstop.

Lane and Burke can play; Taveras, most likely, cannot. I hope Bagwell and Biggio get it going for one more year, and I want to see Ensberg slug .500 again, but I do NOT see Adam Everett ever being the NL's best shortstop as long as Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, Khalil Greene, and Jose Reyes are alive.

Woke up at 6:30 am this morning to go have breakfast with a friend (a laaaaaaaaady) and caught a few minutes of SportsCenter, which included Peter Gammons saying:

The Astros are closely following the recovery of Mike Cameron from wrist surgery. They need to involve a 3rd team in the trade, because the Mets are demanding a corner outfielder in return.

I like it. I'm assuming we're looking to trade Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth / Mike Burns to some team with a glut of outfielders (Rangers, Reds, Devil Rays), who in turn trade one of their guys to the Mets, and we get Cameron in return. Obviously this wouldn't work well for us if we had to give up Jason Lane, but if we can manage it, an OF of Biggio / Cameron / Lane to start and then Lane / Cameron / Berkman with Biggio / Palmeiro as 4th and 5th OF's would be excellent. I've decided that I'm very anti-2nd-base-Biggio; his defensive numbers there have been poor since his knee surgery a few years back, and Chris Burke is a sleeper Rookie of the Year candidate there.

That's all I have. Pitchers and catchers reported yesterday - I'm mostly interested in seeing how Andy Pettitte looks and seeing if anyone stands out as a 5th starter (darkhorse: Ezequiel Astacio).

I haven't written in a while, but that's more because there hasn't been much to write about. I'm still holding out hope that we trade for Randy Winn or Mike Cameron, but it's starting to look like we'll give Taveras a long look in Spring Training, and then probably go with Biggio / Lane / Berkman for much of the season. Remember, the Astros have previously gone with both Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio in center, so Lane is certainly an option.

Many of the 'projected lineups' for the Astros have something along the lines of

Biggio
Everett
Berkman
Bagwell
Lane
Ensberg / Lamb
Burke
Ausmus

I'll be the first to admit that batting order isn't that important; at most (batting your worst hitters first and your best hitters last) it might make a difference of up to around 5%. Over the course of the year, if you're the Boston Red Sox, that might make a difference of (900)(.05) = 45 runs. That's actually pretty significant - 45 runs / 162 games = 0.29 runs / game. So it doesn't hurt to try and 'maximize' your lineup. So that's what I'll try to do:

Biggio (his OBP is dropping and his SLG is rising, so I think it would make more sense to bat him 5th, 6th or 7th, but I'm pretty sure he'll stay at leadoff, and he probably should, initially)
Ensberg (he had his one great year batting 2nd in front of Berkman / Bagwell; maybe he just needs to see good pitches to dominate. Good OBP, too)
Berkman (our best hitter, by far)
Bagwell (hope he bounces back against lefties; still a good OBP)
Lane
Burke (he's a better hitter than Everett already)
Everett (might be able to steal to avoid the Ausmus GIDP)
Ausmus

If Burke puts up solid numbers for the first month or two of the season, I'd like giving him a look at leadoff and dropping Biggio to 6th. My main changes are batting Ensberg 2nd, since he should still maintain a good OBP even if he doesn't regain his '03 power, and batting Everett 7th or 8th, because he's simply not a good enough hitter yet to take advantage of his baserunning skills. A .320 OBP just doesn't cut it for a #2 hitter. If he puts up a .350 OBP, then fine.

The Twins signed former Astro Johan Santana to a 4 year, 40 million dollar deal. That's damn good, Twins, especially when Eric Milton and Kris Benson are getting big $$. Now Santana won't be a Yankee until 2009.

Spring training is coming soon. I can't wait.

I haven't written in a while, but that's more because there hasn't been much to write about. I'm still holding out hope that we trade for Randy Winn or Mike Cameron, but it's starting to look like we'll give Taveras a long look in Spring Training, and then probably go with Biggio / Lane / Berkman for much of the season. Remember, the Astros have previously gone with both Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio in center, so Lane is certainly an option.

Many of the 'projected lineups' for the Astros have something along the lines of

Biggio
Everett
Berkman
Bagwell
Lane
Ensberg / Lamb
Burke
Ausmus

I'll be the first to admit that batting order isn't that important; at most (batting your worst hitters first and your best hitters last) it might make a difference of up to around 5%. Over the course of the year, if you're the Boston Red Sox, that might make a difference of (900)(.05) = 18 runs. So we're not reinventing the wheel here. Still, I'd like to see a lineup of:

Biggio (his OBP is dropping and his SLG is rising, so I think it would make more sense to bat him 5th, 6th or 7th, but I'm pretty sure he'll stay at leadoff)
Ensberg (he had his one great year batting 2nd in front of Berkman / Bagwell; maybe he just needs to see good pitches to dominate. Good OBP, too)
Berkman (our best hitter, by far)
Bagwell (hope he bounces back against lefties; still a good OBP)
Lane
Burke (he's a better hitter than Everett already)
Everett (might be able to steal to avoid the Ausmus GIDP)
Ausmus

If Burke puts up solid numbers for the first month or two of the season, I'd like giving him a look at leadoff and dropping Biggio to 6th. My main changes are batting Ensberg 2nd, since he should still maintain a good OBP even if he doesn't regain his '03 power, and batting Everett 7th or 8th, because he's simply not a good enough hitter yet to take advantage of his baserunning skills. A .320 OBP just doesn't cut it for a #2 hitter. If he puts up a .350 OBP, then fine.

The Twins signed former Astro Johan Santana to a 4 year, 40 million dollar deal. That's damn good, Twins, especially when Eric Milton and Kris Benson are getting big $$. Now Santana won't be a Yankee until 2009.

Spring training is coming soon. I can't wait.

Well, at least Astros management is saying the right things. Phil Garner and Tim Purpura both talked about the importance of giving young players a chance to develop, rather than seeing Chris Burke bat .200 in 50 AB's and yanking him down to AAA. Our team, both this year and several years into the future, will depend heavily on Lane / Ensberg / Everett / Burke / maybe Taveras? so we need to give them a solid chance. Roy Oswalt also appears to be happy, saying that he was impressed we gave him a multi year deal even though he's 3 years from free agency, and he said he wants to spend his entire career with the Astros. AND, most importantly, he says he's healthy. With an improved infield defense, a healthy Oswalt could win 20 games with a sub 3.00 ERA. That'd be nice.

All right! Finally, the Astros get this guy signed. I am referring of course, to the illustrious Trenidad Hubbard.

Nah, just kidding. Roy Oswalt gets 2 years / 16.9 million, with a 5.9 mil / 11 mil breakdown. My first impressions were "Only two years? Why not longer?" and it's still my first impression. Oswalt is under club control through 2007, so a 3-year deal would have made much more sense. In addition, because we LOVE deferred contracts (Pettitte, Oswalt, Bagwell) we are now on the hook for at least 42 million already in '06 (16 - Bagwell, 15 - Pettitte, 11- Oswalt). Not good, considering there will be a decent crop of OF's and SP's available through free agency in '06.

But you know what? Sometimes you have to be happy with what you get. And we've got Oswalt for two more years. Not the worst thing in the world.

I know I said I had UZR data, but unfortunately it turns out it was UZR data from 2000-2003; I couldn't find the new data. My bad. I'll keep looking.

Baseball Prospectus has discussed the Astros a few times in the last couple of days:

First, the Clemens contract. They talked about how although Clemens is 42, he's essentially a freak of nature and can't really be compared to anyone else, so he should remain productive. They also said 18 million is a heckuva lot, but for an Astros team with a "rapidly dwindling window to compete", it's probably worth it.

Then they talked about Chris Burke. They said he has a broad range of skills - average, defense, and speed - but that his walk rate is a little low (still above 1BB / 10AB's though) and at 25 he's not really young for a prospect. They project him as a solid regular, not an All Star, for a few years.

I agree with both points. We needed to bring Clemens back and Burke, while unlikely to be a star, should be cheap and good for the next 3/4/5 years. Might as well see what he can do now.

Ok, I see why there wasn't a rush to claim Robby Hammock. He'll miss most of the season after having shoulder surgery. I still think he's worth a minor-league deal and stashing on the DL.

One of the posters at an Astros message board recommends we do a "3-way platoon" with Lane, Lamb and Ensberg - when we're facing a lefty, Lane and Ensberg start, and when we're facing a righty one of Lane or Ensberg sits while Lamb plays 3rd or LF. I actually like this idea - we need to get Lamb his AB's, and I don't want him playing a more important defensive position like 2B. The way our OF looks right now (Biggio, Lane, Palmeiro, Taveras, ???), I'd be surprised if we don't give Lamb a look in Spring Training. I'm not entirely sure how he'd do, but it's worth finding out. I'd rather see him for a month at the beginning of the season than Palmeiro.

The longer we wait to sign Roy Oswalt, the smaller the chance of signing him to a long-term deal. I stand by my belief that signing Oswalt to a 3 or 4 or 5 year deal is the best move the team can make this offseason. We need this.

Lidge? With a split finger change??? Two words: WHY BOTHER. He's dominant enough as it is, reminds me of Dotel trying his new curveball on Opening Day last year and blowing the game.

On to SP and RP free agents in '06, with their handedness, age, 2004 IP, ERA, and GB/FB ratio (career GB / FB ratio in parentheses).

SP

Tim Wakefield, RHP, 38, 188.3, 116, 4.87, 1.23 (0.98)
Kevin Millwood, RHP, 31, 141.0, 125, 4.85, 1.10 (0.97)
Jason Johnson, RHP, 32, 196.2, 125, 5.13, 1.68 (1.15)
Tim Hudson, RHP, 30, 188.2, 103, 3.53, 2.53!! (2.21)
John Thomson, RHP, 32, 198.1, 133, 3.72, 1.36 (1.27)
A.J. Burnett, RHP, 28, 120.0, 113, 3.68, 1.49 (1.23)
Jeff Weaver, RHP, 29, 220.0, 153, 4.01, 1.06 (1.22)
Vicente Padilla, RHP, 28, 115.1, 82, 4.53, 1.25 (1.61)
Matt Morris, RHP, 31, 202.0, 131, 4.72, 1.59 (1.69)
Brett Tomko, RHP, 32, 194.0, 108, 4.04, 1.08 (1.10)
Esteban Loaiza, RHP, 34, 183.0, 117, 5.71, 0.98 (1.36)

There's a big reason I included GB / FB ratio - although I'm hoping we sign one or two FA outfielders for 2006, there's always a possibility we retain Biggio and sign Berkman to huge contract, so we have terrible OF defense again. However an infield of Ensberg / Everett / Burke / Bagwell is still likely to be excellent defensively, so all other things being equal, a high GB / FB ratio is a plus.

Ok, that's a lot of data. First off, let's eliminate Esteban Loaiza and Jason Johnson due to crappy years, and Tim Wakefield due to age (though it might not affect a knuckler, but it makes my life easier). Brett Tomko came out of nowhere to have a good year, but his peripherals were bad in a pitcher's park, so he gone. Matt Morris will probably be overpaid because he used to be great, but his shoulder's shot, so NO MAS.

That leaves Millwood, Hudson, Thomson, Burnett, Weaver, Padilla.

First off, Hudson is incredible. Absolutely incredible. He has NEVER posted a GB / FB ratio under 2.00, and he's durable and young. But he's going to be very expensive, and his K rate has declined significantly the past 3 years. He'll be awesome, but expensive, and he might have peaked already. Pass.

I'll hold off on Millwood - a lot depends on how he does with the Indians this year, but he's declined for a few years now, and his GB / FB ratio isn't a great fit with our strengths.

I'll also hold off on A.J. Burnett because he's such an injury risk - if he has a great 2005, I'll talk about him them.

That leaves my top 3: Thomson, Weaver, Padilla.

Thomson had his "Atlanta year" last year, much like John Burkett and Jaret Wright have, so he might not be as good ever again. However, he was solid for Texas for a number of years, he has a decent K rate and a solid GB / FB ratio, and he's 'only' 32.

Weaver finally got out of NY and immediately became good again. He pitched a lot of innings, so he might have a slightly down year this year, and he's more of a flyball pitcher, so I don't like him quite as much as Thomson or Padilla. Dodger Stadium also helps him out.

Padilla is my sleeper pick; I'm a big fan. His career GB / FB ratio is an excellent 1.61; if he can approach that this year, his ERA should drop back down. His numbers might also be somewhat skewed by that crazy new Philly park. His K rate is still good, also. He's only 28, so I would definitely give him a 4 year / 20 million dollar contract or something along those lines.

Whew, need a break. Relievers next.

1. Vicente Padilla (4/20)
2. John Thomson (3/12)
3. Jeff Weaver (3/10)

I heard LIdge was on 610 this morning. Apparently he said he's been learning a split finger change up. Don't know what that is, but he seriously said that he was learning it from DAN MICELI. Everybody now: "Season's Over!"

I was checking out Baseball Primer's article links and they had one to the 2005-06 potential free agents. If I had to guess I would say we lose Biggio, Berkman, Ausmus, and Clemens (of the starters, at least), so we'll be looking for OF's, a C, and SP's and RP's. Here are some of the possibilities:

OF

Berkman is the big catch, obviously, and I think we blew our chance at a long-term deal. After the Magglio signing of 5/75 (how good does Vladi's 5/70 contract look to the Angels right now?) I think Berkman is likely to get something in the 5/80 - 7/100 range, which may well be too much for us. I hope we let Biggio walk, so we'll really only have Lane as a sure thing (maybe Taveras or Scott or....someone.) Who might we go after? Here's a list with age (in the winter of '05), position, career OPS+, and 2004 OPS+

Randy Winn, 31, CF, 99, 107
Johnny Damon, 32, CF, 101, 117
Carl Everett, 34, RF, 112, 85
Mark Kotsay, 30, CF, 103, 114
Jose Cruz Jr., 31, RF, 103, 101
Richard Hidalgo, 30, RF, 114, 90
Preston Wilson, 31, CF, 107, 69
Kenny Lofton, 38, CF (ugh), 108, 97
Reggie Sanders, 37, RF, 117, 105
Brian Giles, 34, LF, 146, 126

First of all I don't think Willy Taveras will be a major league starter, so we'll need a CF. From that list, Lofton is too old, Wilson is overrated and hurt, Damon will probably be expensive after his playoff heroics....that leaves Randy Winn and Mark Kotsay. I'm a huge Kotsay fan; he's excellent defensively and underrated offensively. He has more injury concerns (his back, specifically) than Winn, so that evens them out a bit. One of the keys here is the sheer number of possible CF's that will be available - though I like Kotsay and Winn the most, we shouldn't overpay, because there are a few out there. All things equal, I'd give Kotsay 3 /10 or Winn 2/6.

1. Mark Kotsay (3/9?)
2. Randy Winn (3/7?)

The rest of the bunch is highlighted by an aging (but still great) Brian Giles, probably-too-old Reggie Sanders, the former Astro Carl Everett, and Jose Cruz Jr. I think Cruz is likely to be the best value on the list, though a lot depends on how he does in AZ. Again, their are options, though, so we need to not overpay for anyone.

1. Jose Cruz Jr. (2/5?)
2. Brian Giles (3/30?)

C

We're really going to need one, and while I hope we claim Robby Hammock off waivers, I won't hold my breath. Who we might go after:

Bengie Molina, 30 years old, 79, 86
Henry Blanco, 33 years old, 62, 60
Jason LaRue, 31 years old, 89, 103
Todd Pratt, 38 years old, 100, 86
Benito Santiago, 40 years old, 92, 96
Ramon Hernandez, 28 years old, 95, 116

I would say Hernandez is the big prize here, though the top 3 are excellent defensively (and we love defense at catcher, don't we?). See why I like Hammock? He'd be a good, cheap fit, and there aren't many obviously better options in the FA market. We'll need a starting catcher most likely (please no Raul Chavez), so that eliminates Todd Pratt and Benito Santiago (age). Henry Blanco is awful, so that leaves Bengie Molina, Jason LaRue, and Ramon Hernandez. I love Hernandez; he's put up two big years in a row in pitcher's parks, and LaRue has a solid OBP thanks to tons of HBP's, so they're my top two.

1. Ramon Hernandez (4/16?)
2. Jason LaRue (3/9?)

Gotta run, be back to fill in the gaps and SP/RP analysis later. GET ROBBY HAMMOCK.

So Tim Redding gets a 1 year / 750K deal and Pete Munro gets a 1 year / 700K deal. Both are closer to what the Astros were offering than what the players wanted, so I guess that's a good sign; maybe Purpura is a good bargainer. We should find out in the next few days as he tries to sign Roy Oswalt (to a long-term deal, hopefully). I'll get the UZR data later today, but just remembering some of the scores from the past few years, our infield defense of Ensberg / Everett / Burke / Bagwell is likely to be excellent and our OF defense of Biggio / Lane / Berkman is likely to be awful. All other things equal, I'd like to see a groundball-type pitcher in the 5th starter's spot, since both Oswalt and Backe are pretty extreme flyballers, Clemens is average, and Pettitte is an extreme groundballer. Unfortunately, all other things may not be equal, since both Redding and Hernandez are flyball pitchers and they both have more upside than Murno, a groundballer. Yet another casualty of the Beltran saga - we missed out on Matt Clement and Woody Williams.

Check out a great post by Throws Like a Girl (link on left, too), including this gem:

TIM REDDING: I gave up 125 hits in 100-2/3 innings last year. Please give me $1.4 million.

ARBITRATOR: No.

The big news is that it looks like we won't be acquiring Jose Cruz Jr. from the D-Rays, since the D-Backs beat us to the D-Punch, trading Casey Fossum for Cruz 'n Cash.

Redding, 2004: bad

Fossum, 2004: worse

Unless Purpura thinks Redding is going to be good again, I don't see why the D-Rays wouldn't do Redding-for-Cruz Jr. straight up, so why couldn't we do that? Sheesh.

In my opinion this narrows down our CF options significantly, because I figured Cruz Jr. would be the most likely guy we'd trade for. I'd like to trade for Winn because 1) he's a little better than Cruz Jr. and 2) Bill Bavasi, Seattle GM, is a moron. Mike Cameron would be ok, too, I guess. But I just don't see it. It looks more and more like either Biggio / Lane / Palmeiro or Biggio / Taveras / Lane. In other news, I'm going to cry.

Robby Hammock is still out there. Trade for him already! Are we not allowed to consider catchers who slug .400?

Oh, and Roy Oswalt and his agent are getting pissed that we can't come to terms. So basically we're going to blow it with Berkman, blow it with Oswalt, and might be good sometime around 2009.

Sorry, kinda upset today. Stupid Eagles clock management. What the hell was going on in their last 2 drives? HURRY UP! Plus the commercials sucked. Well, the pilot-diving-after-the-Bud-Light and Burt Reynolds getting kicked in the groin by a bear were ok. But nothing AWESOME.

Tomorrow: I stop using baseball-reference's Range Factor for evaluating defense and instead switch to UZR. I'll explain why then. Sneak Peek: Mike Cameron is really good.

Berkman is tight-lipped about it, but the bet is that he’ll be quite wealthy in the near future.“I’d like to stay there, but I’d hate to short-change myself by not giving myself the best opportunity,” he said.While he says he doesn’t believe his knee will be an issue in the contract negotiations, Berkman says the major injury has forced him to reevaluate his body, which now reacts differently to things it used to take for granted.“It’s weird, because if you ask something of your knee or legs, like to sprint or jump, I’m used to it responding immediately,” he said. “Right now it’s just weak and it won’t respond the way I want it to. It’s just kind of a strange feeling.”

I don't think he's going to be an Astro next year. How can he think his injury won't be an issue in the contract negotiations? We have to see how he bounces back, especially if his knee feels "weird" and is a "strange feeling". Lance goes on to say he thinking the starting pitching will have to carry the team this year, because the offense won't be nearly as good. That may be true, but asking a rotation of Roy Oswalt, who needs to be completely healthy, Andy Pettitte, who might not be 100% yet, Roger Clemens, who is 42, and Brandon Backe, who doesn't have an out pitch against lefties, and a mystery 5th starter to 'carry the team' is pretty risky. I agree that we don't have much of a choice anymore.

Are the Detroit Tigers insane??? 5 years and 75 million for a 31 year old outfielder, coming off an injury, who has never posted a 1000 OPS? I can't imagine any team was offering anything close to that. I guess the Tigers needed to 'make a move', but this reeks of desperation.

I'm hosting a Super Bowl Party today for most of my math colleagues (makes me sound professional, huh?) and I gotta clean up, so I'll talk to you all later.

A: Randy Winn, Jose Cruz Jr., and Mike Cameron.

Q: Who are 3 above average, underrated CF's that the Astros would do well to trade for.

I was just checking their stats, and it's eerie how similar these guys are.

Winn Cruz Jr. Cameron
Age 30 30 32
Bats B B R
BA ('04, career) 286, 284 242, 250 231, 248
OBP ('04, career) 346, 344 333, 336 319, 340
SLG ('04, career) 427, 411 433, 455 479, 440
SB% ('04, career) 75, 68 64, 74 78, 78
OPS+ ('04, career) 107, 99 101, 103 104, 105
Range Factor as a CF ('04, career) 2.71, 2.66 3.00, 2.40 2.67, 2.74
2005 salary 3.5 mil 4 mil 2 year / 16 mil

Cameron also has the most injury concerns, although the latest reports have his wrist healing quickly and he may be ready for Opening Day.

So, going stat-by-stat, Winn has the highest BA (basically irrelevant), Winn has the highest OBP (thought it's very close, espeicially career OBP), Cameron has the highest slugging (despite playing much of his career in Seattle, an extreme pitcher's park), Cameron has the best SB%, Win had the highest OPS+ (though Cameron has the highest career OPS+), Cameron has the best career Range Factor as a CF (Winn is close, Cruz Jr. is fairly low, I shouldn't have even used 2004 stats for Cruz since he played 1 game there), and Winn has the lowest '05 salary (then Cruz, and Cameron is signed for the next two years at 2/16).

What does it all mean? I like Cameron as much as anybody, and he's a defensive magician, but 2 years / 16 for a guy for a 32 year old with some injury questions isn't too appealing. I prefer taking a one-year flier on Winn or Cruz Jr., and if I had to pick one, I like Randy Winn. Cruz Jr. might sell more tickets or have a big year playing for his dad, though. Either one would make an excellent 2005 Astros CF, and would solve a lot of problems for our team.

No news is bad news. Are we even thinking about trading for Winn or Cruz Jr. or Cameron anymore? I'm pretty disappointed in Purpura. Either he thinks we can compete with the team as currently constructed, or he's incapable of making a move. I'm scared either way.

JT got his first fantasy baseball magazine yesterday, and it had a few interesting things to say:

1. They don't recommend anybody in the Astros bullpen besides Lidge.

Normally, I wouldn't either, but check out some of these 2nd half splits:

Qualls, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8 BB / 24 K in 33 IP
Harville, 3.03 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 16 BB / 29 K in 29.2 IP
Wheeler, 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3 BB / 9 K in 14.1 IP as an Astro

The only thing that scares me with these 3 guys is none of them have good numbers against lefties. But if Harville can cut down on his walks, these 3 can form a league-average middle of the pen. Toss in Lidge, Franco / Gallo, and Munro / Burba, and you've got a not-horrible bullpen. Not great, either, but we sat and watched Mecir / Osuna / Hammond sign. Oops.

2. They don't like Brandon Backe at all.

I kinda agree here. What do you believe: a few late-season and postseason miracles, or a year-long 4.30 ERA / 1.52 WHIP and a 27 BB / 54 K ratio in 67.0 innings? Again, lefties eat him alive (.347 BA allowed).

I still think he should be our 4th starter; he's young, and he's a converted pitcher, so he's still learning. But expecting a sub-4.00 ERA is crazy.

If we don't trade for a CF, what's our Opening Day Lineup?

Biggio
Burke
Bagwell
Lane
Ensberg
Palmeiro
Everett
Ausmus

and that'll be going up against Mark Mulder of St. Louis. Ouch.

Arbitration dates are coming up for Tim Redding, Pete Munro, and Roy Oswalt. I recommend we sign all three, Oswalt in particular, and hopefully to a multi-year deal, for a few reasons:

1. It's likely to be less expensive to sign him to a 4 year deal now than arbitration this year and a 3 year deal next year. (7+3/36 or 4/40, for example).

2. Lance Berkman was on a sports show on 610 radio the other day and he essentially said he expects Beltran-type money. I just don't think we're going to re-sign Lance; I think he's probably going to at least want to test the FA market. If we can sign Roy O now, at least we'd have a reference point to dealing with Berkman and it would show him we're serious about fielding a semi-competitive team over the next few years instead of giving up and rebuilding.

I've said this before, but several of Oswalt's most comparable pitchers (baseball-reference.com again, if you're curious) are Mike Mussina and David Cone, who remained productive into their mid 30's. Some of Berkman's comps did not (Albert Belle, Tim Salmon).

No baseball updates, that I can find. What's that? You want to know my daily schedule?

7:00am - Alarm clock goes off. Hit snooze.
7:05am - Alarm clock goes off. Curse, mumble, and get up.
7:15am - Honey Bunches of Oats time. Man, you can't beat HBo'O.
7:30am - Leave for the NAU REC Center with Mike. Wonder (as we drive through semi-darkness) why I get up so early.
7:45 am - Read the AZ Daily Sun (Andy, they need you, their articles are pretty pitiful) while biking
8:00 am - 30 min. of cross training, strategically placed next to as many TV's with ESPN on as possible.
8:30 am - Shower, shave, leave for Adel Math Building (The Compound).
9:10 am - Teach on MWF, Lab Aide on TR.
10:20 am - Ditto
11:15 am - Lunch, if it's MWF. 2 more statistics classes to go to it it's TR.
12:40 pm - Lab Aide, if it's MWF. 1 more statisitics class if it's TR.
1:50 pm - Statistics class, if it's MWF. Freedom and lunch, it's it's TR.
2:40 pm - DONE. (unless it's Tuesday, then I have office hours from 3 - 6:30)

I usally try and update the blog somewhere in there and hopefully play a few games of Knotball or goof around in there. The other GTA's in the department are nuts, one is obsessed with Seinfeld, one with snowboarding, and the other with Invader Zim and Futurama. Yep, strange people.

Most afternoons I do homework or walk home or run errands or something. Hopefully it's warmed up to 40 degrees by then.


Wait! New article up at Astros Daily, "Handicapping the Central". Gotta analyze it.

Cubs comments -

1. Yeah, their starting pitching could be damn good, but the fact that Prior was injured and Kerry Wood always seems to be almost injured isn't just a coincidence - Dusty Baker is a slave driver when it comes to young pitchers. Expect at least one of Prior / Wood / Zambrano to go on the DL sometime this year.

2. Their bullepn isn't reliable? Well, it may well be better than ours. Hawkins is a great reliever; forget the "he can't handle the pressure" crap, he'll be fine.

3. They also lost Alou, in addition to Sosa. Their infield will be tremendous (Ramirez, Garciaparra, Walker, Lee) and their outfield will be pretty bad, especially if they don't play DuBois (Hairston, Patterson, Burnitz, UGH)

Cards comments-

1. Edmonds and Walker are both damn good but can't be said to be 'in the prime' of their careers. Edmonds was suspiciously healthy last season, Pujols still has that heel injury, Walker is old. Injuries are a concern.

2. I guarantee the Cards' pitching will regress a lot this year. Mulder has injury issues, Matt Morris has no K rate anymore, and if Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis combine for 400 innings of a sub-4.00 ERA I will eat my hat. The losses of Dan Haren, Kiko Caleron, and Edgar Renteria will hurt. A lot.

3. It's DAN Haren, sheesh. Mulder needs to re-find his control, and quick.

4. They'll still have the defense, but the pitching has to be a concern, and there are plenty of studies that will tell you a team that wins over 100 games one year generally drops 10 or so games in the standings the next year simply because there is a high probability that team got fairly lucky (injuries, breakout seasons, etc.) the year before.

Astros comments:

1. "The Astros will score enough runs." Typical non-fact-based excrement. What the hell does that mean? Sure, a rotation of Oswalt / Pettitte / Clemens / Backe / Mr. X looks good on paper, but a lot of things could go wrong - Oswalt has injury concerns, Is Pettitte all the way back?, Clemens is 42, Backe came out of nowhere last year, who's #5?

As for the offense, Biggio is projected to fall off a cliff one of these years, and he doesn't walk much anymore, Bagwell's shoulder isn't getting any better, will Berkman be back to full health? I think the offense will revolve more around finding out what Lane, Ensberg, Burke, and Everett can do - we know Biggio and Bagwell will decline, and Berkman can't really do too much better.

2. Yeah, talent's a little short, but we've got some kids who might be able to step up. The best bullpens are usually put together on the cheap from in-organization guys, so if a few guys step up (Qualls, Harville, Burns?, Astacio?) it could be pretty decent. I do think our OF defense as it looks right now (Biggio / Lane / Berkman) will be atrocious, subpar at each position. That's a big concern for flyball pitchers Oswalt and Backe.

3. The club didn't lose that much with Kent, as we have Burke waiting, but Beltran would have been nice. We absolutely spent too much time on Beltran; we should have decided on an earlier deadline (mid-Dec.?) so if he said no we could move on without missing out on everybody (J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Adrian Beltre, Matt Clement).

4. In order for Houston to win they will need Brandon Backe, a fifth starter, at least three relievers, Chris Burke, Morgan Ensberg, and a centerfielder to emerge at the same time. What are the odds?

That's actually about right. What are the odds? About the same odds of Jim Edmonds staying healthy all year, Chris Carpenter dominating, Jason Marquis dominating, Tony Womack being good again, and Kiko Calero stepping up. In other words, it happens every year to some team.

I don't feel like doing the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates yet. Maybe tomorrow. We oughta try and trade for Austin Kearns, the Reds have Griffey / Wily Mo Pena (great name) / Adam Dunn.

"According to TSN's Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs will announce the signing of Jeromy Burnitz once the Sammy Sosa deal is finalized.It'll be a one-year, $5 million contract with a mutual option for 2006 that could make the deal worth as much as $11.5 million. Burnitz shouldn't have much trouble hitting 30 homers while playing half his games in Wrigley Field, but he's not going to be a big asset for the Cubs in right field. This makes the Sammy Sosa trade a net loss for a team that already hadn't had a great winter."

Preach on, Rotoworld, preach on. From an Astros fan's perspective, I love this signing. I've talked about Burnitz a fair amount this offseason, since for a while it looked like the Astros might sign him. Here are the most important things I said:

Burnitz, road, 2004: .244 / .327 / .448 (775 OPS), 13 HR, 29 BB in 270 AB.

Cameron is also one of the best (perhaps the best) defensive CF in the game (career Range Factor of 2.74 vs. 2.36 league average) and Burnitz is...not (career CF Range Factor of 1.77 vs. league average of 2.24).

Yeah, I know Burnitz will be playing right field for the Cubs rather than center, but he's still getting older and slower. Burnitz is 35, coming off a Coors-inflated season, and is a below-average defender. The Cubs likely outfield of Hairston or Dubois or Hollandsworth / Patterson / Burnitz may not have an 800 OPS among them.

Ok, so Burnitz is off the table, Astros, so trade Tim Redding and Mike Lamb for Jose Cruz Jr. already!

Intramural basketball is right around the corner, and our team has 4 guys over 6'0''. Watch out for NAU Math Re-Representin'. And Tennis and Disc Golf Doubles is only 2 months away...
Man, I love sports.

I covered most of the Astros prospects yesterday, but I did leave one out:

Tommy Whiteman, SS.

Whiteman split time between AA, where he hit .336 / .381 / .473 but with relatively few XBH (22) and walks (20) in 277 AB's. He was then promoted to AAA, where he hit .276 / .336 / .337, and again didn't walk or hit for power. He also made a combined 17 errors in 93 games (not a terrible total for a shortstop, but not great), and he's already 25, so I'm not too high on him. I guess he'd be our best SS prospect if Everett went away (though I wouldn't mind seeing Burke shift to SS and Conrad go to 2B), but that's more an indictment of the state of our minor league system than Whiteman's excellence. Not a bad player, but little patience, little power, and an average-to-below-average glove at SS don't predict future success.

The Sosa trade looks like it's going through, and rumor has it that the Cubs are close to signing Jeromy Burnitz. This is great news for Astros fans; an OF of Hairston or DuBois / Patterson / Burnitz is pretty bad, probably worse than Biggio / Lane / Berkman assuming Berkman comes back healthy. The Tigers are also rumored to be offering Magglio Ordonez a 5 year deal (is anyone else even offering a 3 year deal??), so they'll probably get him. That leaves trade as our only real option to improving the OF. I still think Randy Winn from Seattle (they have Ibanez, Jeremy Reed, and Ichiro in the OF) and Cruz Jr. from Tampa (they've got Crawford / Baldelli / Gathwright / Danny Bautista) as the two most likely suspects. Our trade bait should be Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth / Willy Taveras / Mike Burns / Todd Self / Mike Lamb. Surely some combination of that could bring us Winn or Cruz Jr. I just hope we don't trade Ensberg, Lane, Burke, or Astacio.