Good news: The Rocket passes Steve Carlton on the all-time win list with 330.
Better news: Todd Self gets called up from AAA (see comments on the previous post for more info.)

Astros win 2-1 last night, as Orlando Palmeiro (who has really had an excellent start this year, and I would argue he's one of the better 5th OF's in baseball) had 2 RBI's.

Couple of interesting things about the game:

1. Lance Berkman started in LF, and Mike Lamb started at 1B, where I think both are much better suited than if the positions were reversed.

2. Morgan Ensberg went 1-for-3 with a walk, and is sporting a healthy .381 OBP. I wonder if there's any thought to moving him up in the lineup?

There are also a few quotes, both encouraging and discouraging, from a few Astros Daily links:

1) About Jeff Bagwell's shoulder

His arthritic right shoulder is dying a day at a time. He hasn't been able to throw for three years. Now he's having trouble swinging a bat. There's no indication it's going to get significantly better.
"I have no strength left in my shoulder," he said. "My shoulder has gotten weaker year after year after year. I just can't get the bat head to the ball like I could. The pain is always there."

I feel for the guy. As much as he's struggled the past few years, take a look at his career stats. You can't blame a guy for wanting to help his team any way he can. There just comes a point when it the best way to help the team is to step aside.

2) Phil Garner, on the offense:

"You can't generate runs if you don't get on base," Garner said.

YES!! YES!! YES!!!! Baserunners = runs! Out of any single batting statistic, OBP has the highest correlation to runs scored! I love it!

"I'll look on the scoreboard and it's the sixth inning and we have one hit."

Well, that's true...but getting on base isn't all about hits. This is nitpicky, so I'm going to give Garner credit for his first statement.

3) Garner, on the win-now mentality:

The Astros are in a different position than some teams that might get such a slow start and think about going with a youth movement, Garner said.
"Our owner wants to win the World Series," Garner said. "We don't have the luxury of letting [the younger players] learn to play. We've got to win right now. So that's our objective and our marching orders. We're not playing so someone can be good two years from now. That's not the objective."

I understand that it's early in the year, and hopes of winning the World Series are still alive. But let's be realistic here. We have exactly one hitter (Berkman) who is significantly above average offensively at his position. Yes, Biggio and Lane and Ensberg are all solid, and perhaps above average, but not by a lot. I'll grant that we have a strong front 3 in the rotation, and perhaps a strong front 3 in the pen (Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler), but this is not a playoff team. Which of the following teams are we better than: Cards, Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres.

I would have to vote 0, in all honesty.

4) Adam Everett, on stealing:

Like Phil said, I've got to get on base first," said Everett, who is hitting .210. "It's one of those things. You hit a ball good, it's right at somebody. And you hit a ball good, they seem to catch it."

Everett hits on a big point here - one of the benefits to being a patient hitter is that your walk rate is often more stable than your batting average. Sometimes you're hitting liners right at guys; sometimes you're hitting bloopers and seeing-eye grounders. But if you're a patient hitter and work counts, you should generally be able to walk fairly often.

Backe vs. 'Scuffy' Brian Moehler tonight. Seems like a good night for the offense to do some damage, but I've said that before. I'll take Lane and Berkman getting going.

Catching platoon: Garner's plan for the remainder of the season is to split the playing time between Brad Ausmus and Raul Chavez at a 60-40 clip.

Ausmus will catch Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Brandon Backe, and Chavez will catch Ezequiel Astacio and Roy Oswalt.

Sad as it is to say, it will be a battle to see who has the lower OPS by the end of the season.
Last year: Ausmus - 631, Chavez - 515.
Through 29 games this year: Ausmus - 567, Chavez - 541
That sucks.

Oh, and I thought Todd Self, one of our better hitting prospects (.382 / .477 / .551 ) was a 1B, but apparently he's been playing right field also (It still lists him as an IF on the official roster, but he played RF tonight. Oh, and in case you're liking that stat line, note that Self is already 26 and it's in a hitter's park - Round Rock). It's looking more and more likely that Lance will move to 1B permanently when Bagwell retires, somewhat reducing his value, in my opinion.

Today: Atlanta 16, Houston 0.
For the 4-game sweep: Atlanta 38, Houston 8.

That's all I have to say about that.

Hiked up Mt. Elden today - we lucked into a really nice weekend in Flagstaff, so I tried to take advantage. Went with a guy from the math department who hikes crazy fast, but I kept up with him and even gave him half my Clif Bar at the end. Man, what a guy I am.

I still think we basically have to trade Chris Burke. Yeah, I know, the Astros aren't going anywhere this year, but does anyone not think we're going to keep Biggio around to get to 3,000 hits? Of course we are. So where is Burke gonna play? That's right; nowhere. Trade him for...hell, I don't know. That's the frustrating thing - the Astros have no glaring weaknesses. Sadly, we also have no strengths (in our next rebuilding phase) other than Berkman, Oswalt, and Lidge. Granted, that's a pretty good trio of stars, but we're going to need more. A lot more. And by the time Biggio gets to 3,000 hits Burke is going to be 27. Trade him now for something while his value is high.

And yes, I'm pissed about this past series, so excuse my anger.

Crap, I almost forgot - check out The United States of Baseball, too (link on left).

Link Updating Time

and

Why in the name of all that is good and pure is Jose Vizcaino hitting 3rd???

Yeah, you read that right - it's that's time again. A few of my old links have passed on, and I've discovered a few new ones. Ready?

Kicked to the Curb:

Rafe has apparently gone silent at AstroInExile, so he's gone. ThrowsLikeAGirl has moved to all-baseball.com - I'm just going to change her link to their general link, because all their blogs are great. The Cub Reporter is now included on the All-Baseball.com link. Sadly, Barstool's Cheap Liquor is no more.

Jumping on the Bandwagon:

All-Baseball.Com - note the links right next to the all-baseball link: most valuable, cub reporter, etc., including ThrowsLikeAGirl. All good stuff.

TheBaseballAnalysts.com - I just discovered this site, but it seems pretty cool.

That's it.

According to the Braves announcers last night, 'don't be surprised atseeing Lance Berkman taking grounders at 1B today'. Well, if Lance can't even play LF, I'm not sure I want him starting. Also,

career games at 1B for Lance Berkman: 7

career games at 1B for Mike Lamb: 67

and

career games at LF for LB: 489

career games at LF for ML: 14

So, um, why not move Lamb to 1B and Berkman to LF?

"I'm definitely not going to retire." - Jeff Bagwell

My question is, how much pain must he be in to even be asked that question?

John Thomson vs. the Astros, after the 1st inning:

8 IP

1 H (a solo HR by Morgan Ensberg)

0 BB

5 K

Thomson is pretty good, but.....ouch. Offense....hurting.....Vizcaino...batting....3rd....

Oswalt vs. Smoltz today. Berkman will be starting. I'll be watching. Oh, and according to the Chronicle, once Berkman is activated, one of Bruntlett / Harville / Duckworth will be sent down. I know Harville had a rough outing yesterday, but I hope that Bruntlett goes down. I just don't see what he brings to the team at the moment. Viz, Burke, and Lamb can all play the IF.

Baseball Prospectus: Cocky Stat Guys Who Know What They're Talking About

The latest PTP (Prospectus Triple Play) article includes a section on the Astros. Baseball Prospectus says:

1. They're glad that Jason Lane (who had the highest EqA, .293, on the team, going into the Pirates series) is finally getting regular playing time, and even gladder that he'll stay in RF after Lance Berkman returns, with Lance shifting to LF. Left field at the Juice Box is probably the smallest OF area to cover of any ballpark in the majors, so Lance shouldn't collapse due to strain on his knee.

2. They go on a rant about Craig Biggio's 'milestones': he's only the 4th player in baseball to have 500 doubles, 400 stolen bases, 2000 hits, etc., etc. They basically say such milestones are meaningless and Biggio doesn't need them to make people realize he's had a great career.

I was flipping through BP's stats, which include EqA (stands for Equivalent Average, and incorporates BA, OBP, SLG, stolen bases, caught stealing, home park, etc., into a league-wide comparison for offensive performance) and VORP (Value Over Replacement Player - a shortstop with a .290 EqA is more valuable than a RF with a .300 EqA in Colorado, for example). I know it's early in the season, but here are some interesting Astros stats:

First, EqA for hitters:

Jason Lane .286

Craig Biggio .295

Morgan Ensberg .280

Willy Taveras .274

Mike Lamb .289

Jeff Bagwell .270

Adam Everett .234

Brad Ausmus .220

Chris Burke .179

Luke Scott .161

and VORP for pitchers:

Roger Clemens 17.2 (2nd in all of baseball behind the Immortal Jon Garland)

Roy Oswalt 9.4

Andy Pettitte 9.2

Brandon Backe -1.2

Brad Lidge 5.5

Dan Wheeler 4.5

Chad Qualls 2.7

Chad Harville 1.9

So it looks like we'll have a decent "top 6" group of hitters when Berkman gets back (note that Taveras's EqA is helped by his stolen bases), though he obviously can't replace Everett or Ausmus, a strong front 3 in the rotation in Clemens / Oswalt / Pettitte, and a solid front 4 in the bullpen in Lidge / Wheeler / Qualls / Harville. In other words, pretty much what we knew going into the year.

Pittsburgh 7, Houston 4

We set the table...where's the food?

Willy Taveras and Craig Biggio combine to get on base 9 times tonight (Taveras: 3-3 with 2 walks; Biggio: 3-for-4 with 1 walk), but the rest of the lineup went 5-for-30 with 0 walks. Ezequiel Astacio made his first ML start, and looked pretty good, although hittable. His final line:

6 IP
7 H
1 BB
4 ER
7 K
2 HR

I was pretty impressed, considering it was his first start. On the other hand, it was against the Pirates.

Chad Qualls took the loss, in a weird 8th inning - the first two runner reached on balls that were more errors than hits, then he walked Ward on 4 pitches, Wilson lined a single to LF, and some other guy blooped one to LF. Then a double play and groundout. Only one hard-hit ball, but a little lack of control. Not that much to worry about.

The Rocket goes tomorrow, then Backe and Oswalt go against the Braves. I read that Berkman had to leave his latest rehab game due to "knee soreness". Crap. Might be a few more days or a week or so before he's back.

Nice start for the Astros tonight - Pettitte has cruied through 3 innings, and our offense is showing signs of life:

Top 1

Taveras flies out.
Biggio singles. (Should have been called out at 1st - close play though)
Bagwell walks (Biggio steals 2nd on a 3-0 pitch)
Lamb singles, Biggio scores.
Lane flies out to deep center, Bagwell to 3rd, Lamb to 2nd.
Ensberg doubles to LF on a 3-2 pitch, Bagwell and Lamb score.
Everett grounds out

We haven't done much since then, but that's a pretty good start to a game. If Lamb keeps swinging the bat this well it's going to be tough to sit him when Lance comes back. But who do you sit out of Ensberg / Lane / Bagwell? I guess give any of them the occasional day off, and clearly Lamb would be the top pinch hitter off the bench.

Couple of Astros wins over the Cubs (against Wood and Prior!) since my last post.

Brandon Backe had another interesting outing in the first win (7-3), where he put up the following line:

7 IP
6 H
2 BB
8 K

Backe has managed a lot of strikeouts so far this year (7 BB, 28 K in 30.01 IP, an excellent ratio) , but he's also allowed a .298 batting average to hitters. I expect this number to drop a bit as the year progresses. One thing to note is that Backe is an extreme flyball pitcher (32 GB, 42 FB so far this year), so it is of utmost importance that we start our best defensive OF when he plays (in other words, no Lamb in LF).

The Astros drew 6 walks in that game, which is a good sign for a team that isn't going to hit for a great averae.

Roy Oswalt followed that yesterday with a subpar performance (for him), but he made big pitches when he needed to, and got a lot of help from the offense, particularly in the 5th inning, which went:

Single (Chavez)
Flyout (Roy O)
Single (Taveras)
Single (Biggio)
Strikeout (Bagwell)
HR (Lamb, on an 0-2 pitch)
Walk (Lane)
Walk (Ensberg)
HR (Everett!)
Strikeout (Chavez)

This was also the first time this season that Garner has batted Taveras leadoff and Everett 7th. In fact, the lineup on Sunday (Taveras / Biggio / Bagwell / Lamb / Lane / Ensberg / Everett / Chavez / Oswalt) is probably about the best we can hope for until Lance gets back. I also like starting Lamb in LF fairly often until that happens - although he's pretty much a butcher defensively, left field at the Juice Box is ridiculously small, and Luke Scott and Chris Burke haven't done well so far.

I guess the question now becomes: what happens when Lance comes back? Oh yeah, and Zeke Astacio is set to start tomorrow, so one more person needs to go down.

My opinion: send Luke Scott and Eric Bruntlett down.

This gives you an OF of Berkman / Taveras / Lane / Palmeiro / Lamb (emergency), an IF of Ensberg / Everett / Biggio / Bagwell / Burke (MI) / Lamb (CI) / Viz (super-UTIL), and Ausmus / Chavez at C.

Ideally, both Lamb and Burke would see a lot of playing time, with Burke starting over Biggio at least once a week (I stand by my start-Burke-when-PettitteTheGroundballer-starts), filling in for Everett occasionally, while Lamb gives Bagwell a day off a week to rest his shoulder, and can occasionally spell Ensberg or Lane against tough righties.

Well, that's it, I guess. Oh, and I'm pretty sure Taveras is going to keep starting everyday in CF. He's been a success so far.

Jill's right - sometimes I get a little baseball-crazy. Wilco was in town Wednesday night for a concert, and I got there about an hour early and met with my crazy friend (but good taste in music) Ben "The Reverend" Helford. Don't ask me why he's The Reverend...if you met him, you'd understand. Anyway, we get in line, I scalp my two extra tickets for a small profit, and we go in. The opening act was so-so, and Wilco finally took the stage around 8:30 or so, I think. They play one song...and stop, because their was a malfunction with the amp on lead singer Jeff Tweedy's guitar, or something. It gets fixed (after a few minutes), and they play a lot of their new stuff from "A Ghost is Born". It's pretty awesome, I gotta say. Then they leave, but for the first encore they play "Spiders" (or jmaybe it's called "Kidsmoke", I don't remember) and it ROCKED. One of the best live songs I've ever heard. After that Jeff Tweedy throws (and I think breaks) his guitar, I think because there was more malfunctioning with his amp. Oh, and he also grabbed someone's video camera in the front row and took it away from them.

Anyway, good concert. The Orpheum is a cool venue - not crowded at all, no smoke, kinda cheap beer.

Oh yeah, the Astros game yesterday. Well, we lost 3-2 to the Cubs. Clemens pitched well, but once again our offense couldn't do much. Bagwell had a HR, but other than that we just can't seem to get it going. Berkman should be back soon; when he returns, my vote goes to sending Bruntlett down, ending the Burke-in-the-OF experiment, and making Burke the backup middle infielder, and giving Everett and Biggio an occasional day off. I just don't want Burke taking playing time away from Jason Lane in LF, who has certainly paid more dues than Burke is. Alternatively we could try and trade Burke, but I don't know what we need, unless someone is offering us a solid offensive catcher or shortstop, both of which are hard to come by. I guess a guy like Mike Cameron would work too, but Taveras has been surprisingly good.

Sorry for the long delay. Looks like I didn't miss much Astros action, though - they've been shutout in consecutive games by Oliver Perez and Kip Wells. It doesn't look like any one guy is to blame, but it's a shame we haven't been able to take advantage of our dominant starting pitching so far. Even when Berkman gets back, he'll essentially be replacing Luke Scott / Chris Burke, who have been bad, but not that bad. Not Brad Ausmus or Adam Everett or even Jeff Bagwell bad. So a lot of guys have to pick it up.

Baseball Prospecuts mentioned Everett favorably in their latest Power Rankings: He's improved his walk rate for 11.1 walks / 100 PA, which should make him a viable leadoff man once a few more singles start dropping in.

I was in Vegas this past weekend (well, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, actually) for a trip with the guys. It was great - good weather, cheap rooms, plenty of poker. I did all right (JT was the big winner, when he finished 3rd out of 120 players in a $40 buy-in tourney - he won $428, I think, and Todd won about $200 the first time he sat down at a poker table in Vegas), but you don't really go to win money - you go to break even. The combined 8 hour drive there-and-back wasn't that bad either (except for Hoover Dam...ugh.)

Anyway, I'm back, so look for a recap of tomorrow night's Clemens vs. Maddux matchup. Will the Astros score a run for The Rocket? Should be a good one - two Hall of Famers going against each other.

Brandon Duckworth gave up 8 runs in 4 innings against the Cards yesterday, but that's a little misleading - he gave up a few swinging bunt singles, and Willy Taveras misplayed a fly ball to CF which turned into a 2-run triple. He still didn't pitch well - 4 walks/0 K's in 4 innings - but it wasn't as terrible as you might think. The offense made a nice comeback after falling behind 8-1 - we took a lot of pitches, Adam Everett had a bases-loaded double, Raul Chavez had 3 hits, and Morgan Ensberg had a HR off Julian Tavarez. We couldn't catch up all the way, though. The bullpen also looked tough, with 4 innings of scoreless work.

Clemens vs. Mulder today. Bagwell gets a day off and Lamb (a lefty) bats 3rd instead of Lane. Looks like Garner is falling in love with the lineup-by-position - a 1B has to bat 3rd, regardless of who it is.

The Astros signed Tom Martin to a AAA deal with Round Rock. I like it - John Franco has been terrible, Mike Gallo isn't any better, and Martin has had some good years in the past. Now if we could replace Franco with Martin and Springer with Mike Burns I'd be happy.

Pretty solid 8-7 win for the Astros last night - the game wasn't that close until Brady Clark hit a 3-run bomb off Lidge in the 9th. Pettitte looked pretty good, getting tons of ground balls - I think Ensberg had 9 chances at 3rd, and he made some really nice plays. The bottom of the lineup did most of the damage - Lane, Ensberg, Burke, Ausmus, and Taveras all had good offensive performances. Chad Qualls looked good in the 8th, Franco hit the only batter he faced, Chad Harville came on and pitched pretty well but walked Jeff Cirillo with 2 outs, and Lidge came on, gave up the HR, but retired Junior Spivey.

Scott Barzilla has an awesome new article up at AstrosDaily about the Astros ideal lineup construction (link in the upper left of the AstrosDaily page). I won't spoil it for you - go read the article!

Holy crap Oswalt is good. His line: Nine innings, four walks, seven punchouts, one run, zero walks. Money. If Clemens and Pettitte hold up and Backe continues to impress, there's no doubt in my mind that we'll contend. That rotation is simply too strong.

Everett finally snapped out of his early season funk, going 3-for-4 with a leadoff homer and a stolen base. He's still only batting .216, so he's got to keep up the hitting if he wants to stay in the leadoff spot. Otherwise I say we hand over the position to Lil' Willy, who has done everything in his power to earn it. He's 13-for-48 with five walks and five swipes so far (That's .286, .354, .429 in 50 PAs). I hope Garner values his OBP and speed over his inexperience. Unfortunately, I can definitely see Garner reinserting Biggio in the leadoff spot sometime soon. I say, So what if Taveras has little experience... he's good.

Speaking of speed, what's with all the stolen bases? The Stros had four more steals last night. And it's not just Willy T doing all the running. JASON LANE has FIVE!!! WHAT'S GOING ON?!? Oh yeah, and Lane leads the team in every single offensive category. He's batting .368 with 5 homers, 12 RBI and 8 runs. Looks like he and Brian Roberts will go 40-40 this season.

Nomar hurt his groin today. It looked painful. I can't say I'm not a little glad that the Cubs' playoff chances took a hit, but you never applaud an opponent's injury. Unless it's Sox-Yankees.

I also saw that Berkman took batting practice with the team before Wednesday night's game. That's good news: we need him back, and soon. After our series with Milwaukee, eight of our next 10 series are against contending teams (Two against Chicago and one each against St. Louis, Atlanta, Florida, San Fran, Zona and Texas). Our only easy series come against Pittsburgh.

I've been thinking about the Chris Burke situation for some time now. I really don't think it's all that bad that he's not getting playing time. Unless we trade him, he's not going anywhere. Look at Lane: He's been riding pine for years, and he's crushing the ball now. So maybe warming the bench and getting 200 ABs isn't a travesty.

But then I though, Why have Burke sit when Adam Everett's out there putting up an 0-fer every night? Burke used to be a shortstop in college! Put him in! At least see what he can do there. Then we can platoon Scott, Biggio, Everett and Burke between LF, 2B and SS. get 450 ABs for each of them.

I went to the Sox-Twins game on Monday. The renovations to The Cell are pretty nice, although they're obviously copying Wrigley with the new ivy in center. Saw Carl Everett crush a pair of homers and point to the sky about five time each time he rounded the bases. I met Everett five years ago in Anaheim — The BoSox were staying at the same Marriot as our newspaper class was during a Journalism convention. He was a really nice guy; at least he stopped and talked with us for 15 minutes or so. He said he enjoyed his time as an Astro but he didn't feel slighted that he got traded.

I'm going to get tickets to a BoSox-Cubs game in June at Wrigley. I don't know how (or how much!), but I'll get them. The Wades are all coming to Chicago for graduation and a memorial service for our grandmother, Toni Cobb. She'll be missed, but she led an incredibly full life. And even in her final days she was able to bring friends and family together.

Nice peformance by Brandon Backe tonight: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K. That walk-to-strikeout ratio is nice to see. Some of you might be wondering why I'm always harping on that ratio - the main idea is that pitchers have surprisingly little control over what happens once their pitch is put into play. Some pitcher have higher hit rates than others, but generally speaking, at the major league level the difference is smaller than almost anyone would guess. What a pitcher DOES have control over is the balls that aren't put in play - walks, strikeouts, and HR's. In other words, 'free outs' like strikeouts are great, 'non-outs' like walks and HR's are bad. The 'possible outs' usually even themselves out over the long haul.

The offense still wasn't great, but did enough to win. Adam Everett drew another walk - based on my previous statement that hits will even out, he might be a decent leadoff hitter yet. Luke Scott had a rough night; he's batting under .200 now, with 1 extra-base hit, but Brad Ausmus had 2 hits and Willy Taveras had a HR (!!!!), a walk, and a SB. Russ Springer got out of a huge jam created by Wheeler and Franco (who CANNOT get righties out - don't even bother bringing him in to turn a switch hitter around - lefties ONLY) by getting Brian Jordan to GIDP to Ensberg to Biggio to Bagwell. Nice job, Springer. Then Lidge comes in and does his thing, striking out two. Woohoo. Brewers next.

Last thing - "Explosions in the Sky" is the best band I've heard in a long time. Check them out.

The Astros offense sank to a new low last night when they failed to score in a 12-inning 1-0 loss, which included leadoff doubles in the 9th and 10th innings, and a bases loaded-0 out situation in the 10th when a single run wins the game. Roger Clemens has now allowed 0 runs in his last 14 innings over 2 starts and has 0 wins to show for it. There's a lot of blame to go around - Biggio and Bagwell were a combined 0-for-10, and Luke Scott and Willy Taveras both looked awful at the plate. I think everyone knew we'd struggle to score runs before Berkman came back, but even when he does come back, he won't be replacing Everett, Taveras, or Ausmus.

Peter Gammons believes the Astros will end up trading Roger Clemens to the Yankees around the All-Star Break. I think it's pretty darn likely, too - I don't think we'll still be in the race, and the Yankees sure look like they need pitching and Steinbrenner is one owner who won't balk at Clemens' 18.5 million dollar salary. What should we try and get in return? Well, looking at our current team and minor league prospects, we should have Lane, Berkman, and Scott on the OF corners, Ensberg at 3B, Biggio / Burke / Conrad at 2B, Bagwell / Self at 1B, and Quintero at C. Our biggest weaknesses on offense are at CF, SS, C, and perhaps 1B if Self never hits for power. At pitching, we've got a pretty good young group (Oswalt / Backe / Astacio / Nieve / Rodriguez / Albers / Patton, but you can never have too many pitching prospects.

I'm not sure who the Yankees best prospects are, but I can guarantee there aren't many - they've traded all the good ones (Navarro, Duncan, Nick Johnson) away in past years. So I think we might want to get a 3rd team involved somehow. A team like the Phillies, with Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd, Placido Polanco, etc., would be a good fit. I would rank our offensive weaknesses in the following order: CF (worst - I just don't see Taveras as anything other than a pinch runner/5th OF) SS (see above comment, only not quite as strong, since SS is a slightly weaker offensive position, C (although Quintero looks pretty good now), and 1B (Self may never be a decent MLB regular).

Our intramural softball team is shaping up pretty nicely - yours truly is a David Wells (minus 50 pounds or so) on the mound - very hittable, but no walks. We've got a few former baseball players, and a few beginners who we'll stick at C and RF. All in all, should be....well, fun.

The Astros offense sank to a new low last night when they failed to score in a 12-inning 1-0 loss, which included leadoff doubles in the 9th and 10th innings, and a bases loaded-0 out situation in the 10th when a single run wins the game. Roger Clemens has now allowed 0 runs in his last 14 innings over 2 starts and has 0 wins to show for it. There's a lot of blame to go around - Biggio and Bagwell were a combined 0-for-10, and Luke Scott and Willy Taveras both looked awful at the plate. I think everyone knew we'd struggle to score runs before Berkman came back, but even when he does come back, he won't be replacing Everett, Taveras, or Ausmus.

Peter Gammons believes the Astros will end up trading Roger Clemens to the Yankees around the All-Star Break. I think it's pretty darn likely, too - I don't think we'll still be in the race, and the Yankees sure look like they need pitching and Steinbrenner is one owner who won't balk at Clemens' 18.5 million dollar salary. What should we try and get in return? Well, looking at our current team and minor league prospects, we should have Lane, Berkman, and Scott on the OF corners, Ensberg at 3B, Biggio / Burke / Conrad at 2B, Bagwell / Self at 1B, and Quintero at C. Our biggest weaknesses on offense are at CF, SS, C, and perhaps 1B if Self never hits for power. At pitching, we've got a pretty good young group (Oswalt / Backe / Astacio / Nieve / Rodriguez / Albers / Patton, but you can never have too many pitching prospects.

I'm not sure who the Yankees best prospects are, but I can guarantee there aren't many - they've traded all the good ones (Navarro, Duncan, Nick Johnson) away in past years. So I think we might want to get a 3rd team involved somehow. A team like the Phillies, with Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd, Placido Polanco, etc., would be a good fit. I would rank our offensive weaknesses in the following order: CF (worst - I just don't see Taveras as anything other than a pinch runner/5th OF) SS (see above comment, only not quite as strong, since SS is a slightly weaker offensive position, C (although Quintero looks pretty good now), and 1B (Self may never be a decent MLB regular).

Our intramural softball team is shaping up pretty nicely - yours truly is a David Wells (minus 50 pounds or so) on the mound - very hittable, but no walks. We've got a few former baseball players, and a few beginners who we'll stick at C and RF. All in all, should be....well, fun.

Trade Chris Burke.

Let's look at what happened this offseason:

Astros do not offer Jeff Kent arbitration.
Craig Biggio, a still-productive but aging franchise icon, makes noise about wanting to move back to 2nd.
Chris Burke, the consensus top prospect in the Astros minor league system, has a huge year at 2B in AAA, then has an excellent spring training.
Craig Biggio is named starting 2B, and has started every game but 1 this year, and is still playing well. He collected his 2,654th hit yesterday.
Chris Burke is struggling to get playing time.

I think it's fairly obvious that the organization intends to start Biggio until he doesn't want to play anymore; specifically, I think the organization and the fans want to see Biggio get to 3,000 hits. Just because I disagree with the strategy doesn't necessarily make it wrong; but if it's true (and it certainly seems like it is), we need to trade Chris Burke now. He probably had a career year last in AAA - he's 25, and looks ready to start in the majors. His trade value is likely at its highest. In order for Craig Biggio to get to 3K hits, he'll need to play for at least the rest of this year and all of '06. I also think the organization would like to have Biggio and Bagwell retire at the same time: think of the stories (Farewell year for the Greatest Astros in History!) they could produce.

Do we really want to see Chris Burke on the bench for the next 2 years? In addition, we have a prospect in Brooks Conrad that may well be better than Burke in 2 years. He should be good to go in '07.

Trade Chris Burke.

Tough loss today. I thought Duckworth actually threw the ball pretty well; he just made bad pitches at the wrong time, especially to Wily Mo Pena with 2 runners on, which Ol' Wily Mo deposited 498 feet away. Our offense was hit-and-miss - an early 2 run bomb by Lane, a nice rally led by Jose Vizcaino and Raul Chavez, of all people, but then we squandered a leadoff double in the 9th by Jason Lane. I normally hate bunting, too, but you have to at least consider having Luke Scott lay one down there. The announcers say you have to "play for the win", but you HAVE to go for the tie, too. So Scott flew out weakly to CF, Chavez lined out to LF, Everett walked on 4 pitches (again, at least he's showing a good eye - strangely, Everett has 7 walks, and Jason Lane has 0.), and Chris Burke flew out to RF to end the game. Burke has a somewhat odd stance - it doesn't look like he gets much power, but he is patient. However, both he and Morgan Ensberg have a strange and troubling habit of letting perfect pitches go by with 2 strikes. If it's close, you really have to try and protect the plate.

I liked our lineup alright - Everett, Ausmus, and Biggio needed a day off - but I think we were lucky that no line drives were hit in Mike Lamb's area. Heck, Duckworth did a hell of a job keeping the ball on the ground, except for two pitches to Joe Randa and Wily Mo.

The announcers were talking about the hot start that some of the Astros minor league affiliates were off to. Here are some of our minor-league prospects that are leading the way:

Triple-AAA (Round Rock):

Humberto Quintero, C, AAA: .394 / .429 / .667, 5 XBH, 2 BB, 33 AB. Not much patience, but good average and some pop. He's better than anything else we have at catcher in the entire organization. By a lot.

Todd Self, 1B, AAA: .368 / .458 / .474, 2 XBH, 4 BB, 19 AB. Pretty much the opposite of Quintero - Self is a Mark Grace / Wally Joyner / John Olerud - type: good average, good eye, little power. It's not what you expect from a 1B, to be sure, but if you plug him in he'll be league average with a solid OBP and you can spend money elsewhere.

Ezequiel Astacio, RHP, AAA: 12.2 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 9 K, 2 HR, 3.55 ERA. The walk-to-strikeout ratio looks good, and remember Round Rock is a hitter's park. I like him as our 5th starter, but not until August / September at the earliest, so he doesn't lose a year of free agent eligibility.

Wilfredo Rodriguez, LHP, AAA: 11.0 IP, 4 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 2.45 ERA. Pretty impressive strikeout total, and he's a lefty.

Mike Burns, RHP (reliever): 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA. Brad Lidge Lite. He's not young, so I'm not entirely sure why Burns is in AAA when Russ Springer is pitching in the big leagues. A 'pen of Lidge / Qualls / Wheeler / Harville / Burns / generic LHP isn't too bad.

Double-AA (Corpus Christi)

Fernando Nieve, RHP: 12.0 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, 0.75 ERA. Whoa. Look at that line again. 17 K / 12.0 IP = good. He's moving up fast.

Single-A (Salem)

Matt Albers, LHP: 10.0 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 14 K, 2.70 ERA. Everything looks fine here.

So that's it. Some pretty solid pitching prospects, all in all. Astacio should be ready later this year, Nieve the year after that, and Albers the year after that. I'd like to see Burns in the 'pen right now, and Quintero and Self (and hopefully Brooks Conrad, though he's off to a slow start) should all be ready for The Show next year. Quintero should finally make Ausmus expendable, and Self would make a great occasional platoon partner with Bagwell so Bags can rest his rapidly degenerating shoulder whenever he needs to.

Starting lineups for the Sunday 4/17 game (very interesting today):

Houston:

Burke (2B)
Viz (SS)
Bagwell
Lamb (LF)
Ensberg
Lane (CF)
Scott (RF)
Chavez
Duckworth

Cincy:

Jimenez
Griffey Jr.
Casey
Randa
Dunn
Pena
Lopez
LaRue
Harang

So Duckworth's reward for his 1st start this year is to have one of our worst possible defenses behind him. Viz at SS is pretty rough, but what's really strange is that Duckworth is more of a flyball pitcher, and he gets Lamb / Lane / Scott in the outfield? Yech. I feel sorry for the guy. Sure hope we can get some offense going.

I'm going to try something new today - I'll post the starting pitchers and lineups, and post comments on the game. If you're reading this, post a comment!

Big win for the ‘Stros last night, as the offense, led by Jason Lane, who had 2 HR’s and 5 RBI’s, finally scored more than 5 runs in a game, and won 11-2. Roy Oswalt pitched great: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K. Pretty much how games are supposed to go. Morgan Ensberg had a big game, too, going 3-for-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI’s. It’s good to see guys like Ensberg and Lane pick up the offense, because we can’t rely on Biggio and Bagwell anymore. And one bright spot that I’ve failed to mention from Adam Everett, who’s hitting .167 in the leadoff spot, is that he’s also drawn 6 walks already. If Everett can keep his walk rate up, he can still hit .260 or .270, which would put his OBP right around .330 or .340. Not great, but if Garner stays obsessed with batting our 2nd worst hitter leadoff, it’s decent news.

``He's [Oswalt} taken years off my life -- not days, years,'' Dunn said. ``He throws every pitch the same. He's got great control. He'll throw a 95 mph fastball one pitch, the next one's a 69 mph curve. He's just good.''
Man, I like to hear that. When as good a hitter as Adam Dunn says “you’re just good”, that’s pretty high praise.

Russ Springer and Brad Lidge came in and combined for 2 innings of perfect relief, with 4 K’s.

Today it’s Andy Pettitte vs. Eric Milton. I’m hoping Chris Burke sees some playing time again; probably at LF, although Garner did say he intends to sit both Biggio and Bagwell for one game each this series, which is a good idea. We did some damage against Milton last time, and our lineup is full of guys (Biggio , Bagwell, Lane, Ensberg, even Everett) who have traditionally hit very well against lefties, so look for some offense. It would also be nice if Brad Ausmus could improve on his .083 / .185 / .083 line. Man, his hot spring training seems a long time ago.

So far it's been another painful, painful game. Through the top of the 6th the Astros led 3-1, but had left 17 men on base, with Lane, Taveras, and Ausmus all failing with multiple runners on. Backe starts the bottom of the 6th, gives up a single, gets a K, gives up a double. Franco comes in, gets a groundball out, then gives up a swinging bunt single to Reyes and starts laughing. It's pretty funny, blowing another lead, huh? Wheeler comes in and gets Cairo to ground to 3rd, but it takes a bad hop and Lamb can't handle it. 4-3 Mets, and once again the Mets score the go-ahead runs without ever hitting the ball hard. Defense, bad luck, and horrible offense have been the theme of the series.

On the bright side, Luke Scott has reached base all 4 times today - he's 3-for-3 with 3 singles and a walk. Backe pitched well, although he still struggles with lefties - he's lucky Cliff Floyd, Kaz Matsui, and Eric Valent weren't in the lineup. Oh, and why isn't Chris Burke starting at 2B? Would it really kill Biggio to sit for one game with a huge bruise on his forearm? It's a little early in the year to start gutting it out for the team - take a seat and let the top prospect in the organiazation play.

Couple of things before the game today. One, according to the Houston Chronicle, Biggio's going to miss a few games with a badly bruised forearm. This is a good chance to get Burke some playing time, and hopefully he'll play well, so that Biggio can get more rest in the first half of the year and not decline in the 2nd half. I only hope that I don't see Jose Vizcaino's name penciled in as the 2nd baseman today. However, I would like to see Mike Lamb get the start. 1st, Victor Zambrano, the opposing pitcher, is much tougher on righties than on lefties (3 year splits: 729 OPS for righties, 792 OPS for lefties, in a pretty large sample size). 2nd, Backe is our most extreme flyball pitcher, so it should minimize Lamb's defensive liabilities.

The Astros have scored 23 runs in 7 games, or 3.28 runs / game. Should we expect more of the same? Well....probably. We can't expect any offensive improvement from last year at any position except maybe 3rd (Ensberg, although Lamb might regress a bit), and we had BIG offensive losses in Beltran, Kent, possibly Berkman (unless he comes back at 100%), and possibly Bagwell / Biggio / Ausmus (they're all a year closer to 40 than 30). We did have a pretty rough pitching staff for much of last year, with a horrific mix of Redding / Duckworth / Darren Oliver / Pete Munro at 4th and 5th starter, so we should expect some improvement, but not nearly enough to offset the loss of so much offense. The longer we think we're going to contend this year, the more it's going to hurt our chances to be a strong team in the next few years.

I missed the first half of today's Astros-Mets game - I just started watching in the bottom of the 8th, with the score 0-0. Roger Clemens has put up the following incredible line:
7 IP
2 H
0 BB
9 K

Now Chad Qualls is in and struck out Victor Diaz. Then Marlon Anderon hits a routine ground ball to 2nd, and Biggio bobbles it and bounces the throw to 1st, so Anderson beats it out. Biggio already has one error this game according to the box score. Then they pick Anderson off, even though Bagwell didn't tag him. Reyes grounds out. Nice pitching by Qualls: a K and 2 routine ground balls.

Looking at the Astros' offense, we haven't done much either. Biggio and Bagwell each have 1 hit, and Ensberg, Burke, and Taveras each have 1 walk of Kaz Ishii. Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus continue to be offensive sinkholes, batting .148 and .095 respectively. Still think Ausmus is 'swinging the bat well', Garner?

Agonizing loss today. I watched from the 4th inning on, and the Astros led 1-0 on a Biggio walk and Ensberg RBI double. Pettitte was pitching GREAT, mixing in a high 80's fastball and some nasty breaking pitches. In the 6th, Glavine got 2 quick outs, then walked Pettitte, and allowed singles to Everett and Biggio to load the bases. He went to 3-2 to Bagwell, then threw a pitch that crossed the plate a good six inches inside. Strike three, according to Mark Wegener, and Bagwell nearly got thrown out of the game arguing the call. In the top of the 6th, Pettitte didn't allow a single hard-hit ball. Instead, he allowed a broken-bat single, a bloop single to right, a sac bunt, another bloop single to right, and a bloop single to center, and he was done, down 3-1. Don't be fooled by his overall line (5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 5 K), I don't think I've seen Pettitte this good in a long time.

Dan Wheeler came in and got out of the inning. An Orlando Palmeiro triple (good hustle play) and an Everett single got it to 3-2 , but Wheeler looked solid in the bottom of the 7th. In the top of the 8th, Ensberg works the count to 3-2 and rips a double to the LF gap. Lane hits a sinking liner to RF that Diaz misplays into a triple. 3-3, Astros. Vizcaino crushes a double over Cliff Floyd on the 1st pitch. 4-3, Astros. Brad Ausmus comes up needing to get Viz over to 3rd so a sac fly can drive him out. He fails to get a bunt down in his first 2 pitches, then K's looking on the 3rd pitch. An absolutely terrible at-bat when an insurance run would have been huge. Taveras and Palmeiro don't get anything done, although Palmeiro lines out hard to 1B.

Then...the bottom of the 8th. Russ Springer relieves, and gets Minky to fly out to RF. Then he walks Diaz on 4 pitches nowere near the zone. Then he gets ahead of Marlon Anderson 0-2 and inexplicably leaves a hittable breaking pitch over the middle of plate. Anderson pulls it though the right side, on a play that Chris Burke might have been able to make. This brings up Jose Reyes. Again, Springer gets ahead 0-2, and again leaves a hittable pitch out...but this time, Reyes grounds right back to Springer. At this point Springer HAS to get Diaz in a rundown off 3rd - he was halfway down the line. Instead he tries to get the impossible double play (Reyes is uber-fast), and Everett throws it away trying to rush the throw. 4-4. Matsui comes up and singles up the middle on a hanging breaking ball. 5-4, Mets. We intentionally walk Beltran, bringing up Ramon Castro. He pops out weakly to RF, except Biggio forgets he's not an OF anymore and it's Lane's play - they collide, ball falls in. 6-4 Mets. Garner brings in Franco to face Cliff Floyd. Single up the middle. 8-4 Mets, and that's the final. It was an excruciating inning to watch. Springer didn't pitch terribly, except for the 4-pitch walk to Diaz, but he has to finish guys off after getting up 0-2. I'm sure people were calling for Qualls and Lidge to come in, but they've both pitched a lot already - I like leaving Springer in, particularly facing Minky / Diaz / Anderson - that's not really a dangerous part of the lineup. It just didn't work out today. It's a shame, wasting a great start by Pettitte and a big day by Morgan Ensberg.

Once again, I made a long post, and my home computer obliterated it instantly.
Here's the scoop:

I'm pumped that the Astros signed Brooks Kieschnick. At first I thought Andy was just rubbing it in, but they really did. Do you think it's possible that someone from the Astros organization actually reads this blog? ...Nah. It's more likely that we've seen Kieschnick often with the Brewers, both as a pitcher and a hitter, thought he was decent, and picked him up as a project. Still, a neat coincidence.

As I wrote a few days ago, Kieschnick is a useful player. He's not dominant either as a hitter or a pitcher, but he's decent at both, so his real usefulness comes from his versatility. Why carry both Russ Springer and Orlando Palmeiro when you could carry Kiescnick, who fills both roles (middle reliever and 5th OF) and carry an extra pitcher (Astacio?) or catcher (Quintero?) instead. So you could carry two mediocrities...or one mediocrity and a good prospect. I like it.

In other news, Phil Garner is not the smartest man alive.

"The season is still very young, but Garner likes Ausmus hitting seventh and Taveras eighth. Garner realizes the No. 8 hitter doesn't see a lot of good pitches because he's hitting in front of the pitcher, but he feels Taveras has the instincts to handle the job.
"He has a pretty good eye," Garner said. "If they're pitching around him, he's got a good eye and he stays on the ball good. To me, that's a real plus."
Garner also likes having Taveras hitting closer to leadoff man Adam Everett and No. 2 hitter Craig Biggio.
"If (Taveras) gets a stolen base, the pitcher bunts him up, and now Everett's on base and you've got Biggio," Garner said.
"You've got three rabbits right there in a row. If you're going to do something, you've got to get them in a row. If I've got Ausmus in between, you lose your rabbit flow. If we get to a point where Brad's not driving in runs or not hitting the ball well, then we may have to make an adjustment."

Wow....where to begin?

1. Taveras has a good eye, huh? Well, Adam Everett had all of 17 walks in 385 AB's last year. Maybe Taveras should hit leadoff?

2. If Taveras gets on base, he needs to at least get an opportunity to steal, instead of the pitcher bunting him over ON THE FIRST PITCH, as in the first 2 games.

3. "and now Everett's on base and you've got Biggio?" Wouldn't it be great if Everett was just on base? Unfortunately, he's usually not.

4. Well, actually you don't have three rabbits in a row - the pitcher still separates them. And as I hope Garner realizes, Biggio is NOT a 'rabbit' anymore - he's not nearly as quick as he used to be, and I hope he doesn't steal too often, particularly with the big bats coming up.

5. Wow, he actually said "rabbit flow".

6. "If we get to a point where Brad's not driving in runs or hitting the ball well.." Like all of 2003 and 2004? If Garner expects anything out of Brad Ausmus offensively, he's going to be disappointed.

Jack, you got your wish: we signed Brooks Kieschnick to a minor deal. Whoop dee doo.

Game 2: Astros 4, Cardinals 1

Now THAT'S how a baseball game is supposed to go.

Andy Pettitte: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER (on Reggie Sanders' solo HR), 0 BB, 3 K
Chad Qualls: 2 perfect innings, making it look easy

In the 3rd inning, Craig Biggio doubled (good hustle play into 2nd) and Jeff Bagwell singled him in in a nice AB (got up 3-0, took 2 tough pitches, stayed with a breaking ball and hit a liner)
In the 6th, Ensberg singled, Scott K'd (tough start for him, he's 0-for-6), Lane singled, and Ausmus GIDP'd on the 1st pitch.
However, in the 8th, Garner learned from the past, as once again, Ensberg singled, Burke pinch-hit and popped out on a tough pitch to bunt, Lane singled, and Garner pinch-hit with Mike Lamb, who triped to RF, driving in 2, and Taveras hit a hard grounder up the middle for the final 4-1 score.
Lidge closed out the 9th, although not without a little scare.

Overall thoughts:

Adam Everett better start taking some pitches if he wants to stay in the leadoff spot. Prime example: Pettitte has a great 9-pitch AB in the 3rd before striking out...and then Everett pops up to SS on the 1st pitch. Um...bad? Everett needs to take the Taveras route and hit hard ground balls and line drives, because he is NOT a power hitter, and he needs to get on base. A lot.

Craig Biggio, 39 year old legs and all, is off to a hot start, just like last year. Before I start whining about how Burke needs to play, how about a compromise: if Burke gets the occasional (weekly?) start and plenty of pinch-hit AB's, this should keep Biggio a little fresher, so he might not collapse in the 2nd half. A silver lining, if you will.

Luke Scott is pressing.

Andy Pettitte looked good, throwing a lot of strikes, and getting his usual ground balls. Again, I think Burke should start when Pettitte does, because he's such an extreme groundballer and even the most rabid Biggio fan can't say Biggio is better defensively.

Chad Qualls is SOLID. 6 up, 6 down, including striking out Jim Edmonds on a Maddux-like pitch: starts inside to lefties, curls back over the middle of the plate. Man, what a sweet pitch.

My main worries so far are Everett leading off, Taveras hitting 8th (AFTER Ausmus, which completely wastes his speed if the pitcher is just going to bunt him over - by hitting before Ausmus, maybe Taveras can steal a few bases when he gets on to avoid the inevitable Ausmus GIDP.) Regardless, a four-in-a-row of Taveras / Ausmus / P / Everett is going to make for a LOT of late-game maneuvering or offensive suckiness.

But a win's a win, especially over the Cardinals.

Game 1: Cardinals 7, Astros 3.

Post-game thoughts:

Roy Oswalt pitched pretty well (6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K), but once again struggled to finish off hitters once he got ahead in the count. He also seems to get frustrated on the mound when he doesn't have close calls go his way. He needs to be able to control his emotions better.

Adam Everett is not a good leadoff hitter. He's in there for his speed and his defense. But he went 0-for-4 (with a walk, at least), and never really hit the ball hard. With the bases loaded and 2 outs, down 4 runs, Everett swung at the 1st pitch he saw and grounded out to SS.

Craig Biggio is going to get off to a hot start just like last year, which is more bad than good, because Chris Burke is a superior player and Biggio is going to decline in the 2nd half, just like he has the last 3 years.

Morgan Ensberg is not a cleanup hitter. Sometime he's TOO patient, which might sound strange coming for an OBP freak like myself. With 2 on, 2 out, and a 3-2 count, Ensberg took a fastball from Tavares that looked low but was close, and got called out on strikes. I'm all for patience, but in that situation, you can't let a close pitch go by.

Jose Vizcaino and Orlando Palmeiro are going to see more pinch-hit AB's than Chris Burke. Which makes me want to cry.

Man, I hate Jim Edmonds.

Opening Day Updates:

Top 1: Walker ground-ball single up the middle, Rolen reaches on a bad throw by Everett, Edmonds reaches out and hits a dinky 3-run HR. 3-0, Cards, and Roy's terrible luck continues.

Bottom 1: Everett pops up (BAD). Biggio singles to LF. Bagwell GIDP's on 1st pitch (ugly swing).

Top 2: Oswalt settles down, looks good, but has trouble putting Molina away after getting up 0-2. Gotta have quick outs. 1-2-3 inning though.

Bottom 2: Ensberg with a sharp grounder to 3B that Rolen makes a great play on. Scott gets down 0-2, battles to 2-2, and K's. Lane doubles to LF on the 1st pitch (hanging breaking ball), and Ausmus grounds out weakly to 3B.

Top 3: Oswalt gets no close calls, and Eckstein singles to RF on a 2-2 pitch. A nice inside fastball gets Walker to pop to SS. Pujols grounds to 3B but Ensberg for some strange reason tries to go to 2B and everyone is safe. Oswalt gets Rolen to GIDP. Roy has thrown 50 pitches through 3 - he needs some quick outs, and some plays turned behind him.

I took the day off of school and headed down with a friend to Phoenix to watch the Diamondbacks-Cubs game. I'd been to two games at the Bank One Ballpark before, but my friend had been to a lot more, so he knew where to get free parking, what the best food deals were, etc., so it was pretty awesome...until the game started. Well, unless you were a Cubs fan.

Javier Vazquez started for the Diamondbacks. Here's how his first inning and two-thirds went:

Single
Wild Pitch
Line out
Ground out (1-0 Cubs)
Single
Single
Single (2-0 Cubs)
Strikeout

Groundout
Double (by Zambrano)
Single (3-0 Cubs)
Single
Single (4-0 Cubs)
Double (6-0 Cubs)
Strikeout
Double (7-0 Cubs)

and he was done. OUCH. Oh, I have him in both my fantasy leagues. *Shudder*.

The Cubs pretty much coasted from there, although Zambrano had control issues and was relieved after only 4 and 2/3 innings (no win for Big Z) and made gestures that the umpire needed glasses and was subsequently tossed. Then mop-up time consisted of a bunch of Diamondbacks singles and Ramirez and Lee HR's for the Cubs. So not the greatest game, but it was fun anyway.

Then we listened to the Illinois - UNC game on the drive home. HOLY CRAP. If the game was half as good to watch as it was to listen to, it was a damn good game. The announcers were going crazy the entire 2nd half! Man, what a game. Good for Roy Williams. Too bad his whole team is leaving, practically.

So Astros Opening Day is tonight at 4:05 pm (here), 6:05 pm Central. I'll be watching the game on MLB.TV, which is AWESOME - I watched all the 'highlight reels' from all of yesterday's games (Young's 3 HRs, Adam Dunn destroying the ball, Richie Sexson, Pedro's 12 K's, etc.) in about an hour. Unfortunately for you, Andy, I don't think you can sign on in two different places, so the Astros game is MINE. ALL MINE. Bwahahahahaha!

So the batting order, as expected, is:

SS Adam Everett
2B Craig Biggio
1B Jeff Bagwell
3B Morgan Ensberg
LF Luke Scott
RF Jason Lane
C Brad Ausmus
CF Willy Taveras
P Roy Oswalt

I guess the only issue I have with this lineup is that Adam Everett has a career .315 OBP. Last year, supposedly his 'breakthrough year', he had a .317 OBP, with only 17 walks in 384 AB's. He is 25-for-28 in SB's, lifetime, an excellent rate, but he just doesn't get on base enough to be hitting in the top part of the order.

"Part of our game will be we'll have to run a little bit," Garner said. "We'll hit and run a little bit, but we do have some power potential, too. We do have a chance to be a complete offensive team -- not one dimensional or even two dimensional. We have a chance to be a multi-dimensional offensive team. How it's going to play out? I don't know yet."

This quote makes me a little nervous. If Garner runs with Everett (13 SB / 2 CS last year) and Taveras (55 / 11), that's fine. If he runs with pretty much anyone else (Biggio: 7/2, Ensberg: 6/4, Berkman: 9/7, Bagwell: 6/4, Ausmus: 2/2, even Chris Burke is only 37/14), he's just running us into outs. Generally speaking, your break-even rate for SB% is right around 60/70%, so only Everett and Taveras should be running often.

Garner said Biggio's game is "see it, whack it," so it would make sense for Garner to try to have someone on base already when Biggio comes to the plate.

Unfortunately, this is now true. Biggio has gone from 88 walks in '99 down to 40 walks in '04. That's a hell of a drop, and he's not really likely to improve in that department this late in his career, and you generally want your "see it, whack it" guys lower in the batting order, where Biggio's 71 extra-base hits might do a little more damage.


Ok, I gotta run, but I'll be watching the game tonight. Go 'Stros!

Some interesting players have been released in the last few days:

C Bobby Estalella
RP Gabe White
P/OF Brooks Kieschnick

No, you didn't misread that last position - Kieschnik is both an outfielder and LH hitter (.248 / .315 / .444 in 306 career AB's) and a RH pitcher (96.0 IP, 110 H, 11 HR, 26 BB, 67 K, 4.59 ERA career) For his career, that's a 93 OPS+ (100 is league average) and 93 ERA+ (100 is league average, again). How cool is that? So a 33 year old who's a slightly below average hitter and a slightly below average pitcher? Why the heck would you want someone like that?
VARIETY. Why carry both a 5th OF and a 6th or 7th reliever when you could just carry Kieschnick? Put another way, we could sign Kiescnick, release John Franco and Jose Vizcaino, and bring up Brooks Conrad, or Ezequiel Astacio and be a MUCH better team for it. Kieschnick's decency at both hitting and pitching allow you to carry one extra hitter or pitcher, essentially. I think he'd be an intersting pickup, and he's a local guy (went to the University of Texas). What's to lose?

Estalella is 30 and has bounced around for a few years now, mostly because of his career .216 BA. But his career line is .216 / .315 / .440, good for a 755 OPS. The last time Brad Ausmus put up a 755 OPS was 1999, and his highest SLG% for any year is .415. Again, what do you have to lose? Sign him to a minor league deal, and let him compete with Quintero next year.

Gabe White was awful last year (6.94 combined ERA with NY and CIN) but he had put up a 2.98 ERA and a 4.05 ERA the 2 previous years, is 'only' 32 (Franco is 44), throws strikes (30 BB in his last 160.2 IP), and has put up a 3 year line of .248 / .277 / .419 against lefties (696 OPS). John Franco, by comparison, has a 3 year OPS of 637 allowed against lefties. Ok, Franco's better, but he's a lot older and probably more expensive and White can occasionaly get a righty out, so it might be worth looking into.


Also, the White Sox are already looking to trade A.J. Pierzynski. Man, that guy must be a total asshole. Nevertheless, he'd be a solid upgrade over Brad Ausmus at C, or heck, he'd make a decent backup catcher over slower-than-molasses Raul Chavez. He'd probably piss the entire clubhouse off, which would be fun to watch. Remember Mitch Meluskey? Well, imagine the fireworks with this guy.

Ok, that's all. None of these moves are likely, but they'd all be cheap, and if just one of them worked out, it would probably be worth it. I like the Kieschnick move the best - you can't underestimate versatility, particularly in the National League.

The Astros finalized their 25-man roster today - the final 3 cuts were Mike Gallo, Ezequiel Astacio, and Humberto Quintero. Thus, I present to you your 2005 Opening Day Houston Astros roster:

Pitchers (11): Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens, Backe, Duckworth, Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Springer, Franco

Catchers (2): Ausmus, Chavez

Infielders (8): Bagwell, Biggio, Everett, Ensberg, Burke, Bruntlett, Vizcaino, Lamb

Outfielders (4): Scott, Taveras, Lane, Palmeiro

DL (15-day): Berkman


I know the 'official' roster has Biggio listed as an OF, but I think it's clear he's going to start at 2B by now, and our 5th OF (though I hope this never happens) would probably be a mix of Biggio / Bruntlett / Burke / Lamb...yow. That's some bad defense.

Don't get too worked up about Astacio being sent down (by the way, I watched the 2nd half of the game last night, and while the Astros bats were shut out, I saw Astacio for the first time, and he looked GOOD - nice, easy motion, good fastball, good off-speed stuff.), because the Astros won't need a 5th starter until April 19, I believe, so that should give Astacio time for a few starts at AAA, and Duckworth can work in a middle relief / spot starter role, and winner takes all when we need a 5th starter. I'm hoping Astacio does well but stays in AAA until a late call-up in August / September for a few starts; that way, he doesn't lose a year of eligibility towards free agency and he's set up well for next year.

So I can't really argue with any of the roster moves. I'm glad that Burke / Taveras / Scott all made the team, and I hope they all get plenty of playing time before Berkman gets back. If you had told me at the start of this offseason that this would be our roster, I would have been ok with it EXCEPT for the back of our bullpen. Russ Springer and John Franco????? Yeah, those Turk Wendell and Dave Burba signings worked out really well, huh? Man, I can't believe we coudln't sign one more solid reliever. Chris Hammond / Osuna / Steve Reed / Jeff Nelson....gah. I hope Springer and Franco make me eat my words, but one more solid reliever really would have helped.

One thing we have plenty of is depth. Bruntlett has played every position but C, Viz can handle all 4 infield spots, Burke can play 2B / SS / OF, and Lamb can play 3B / 1B / OF. That doesn't mean those guys are GOOD at every position, but they can play there. And Burke / Lamb / Palmeiro / Viz / Bruntlett is actually a pretty good group of pinch-hitters - Burke and Lamb could both be regulars, Palmeiro posts a respectable OBP, Viz can switch hit and GIDP, and Bruntlett has a little power. The deep bench is important, particularly for a team that looks like it's going to start Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and a pitcher in the batting lineup. This means a LOT of pressure is going to be on Biggio / Bagwell / Lane / Ensberg / Scott, particularly without Berkman. Those 5 guys need to get off to a hot offensive start, or we could find ourselves out of contention before the month is up.

The only question left is: who goes down when Berkman comes back? Well, it probably comes down to Taveras, Scott, and Burke. In my opinion it absolutely CANNOT be Chris Burke - the guy tore up AAA last year, and needs to play. Hopefully one of Taveras / Scott is clearly better than the other, so it's not a tough decision, but if Taveras gets sent down, that makes our OF Scott / Lane / Berkman, which sounds pretty damn bad defensively, so I think Scott needs to outplay Taveras by a pretty good margin, because Taveras would BY FAR the best fit in CF.

Since we've got our roster, we can pretty safely predict our OD lineup as:

Adam Everett
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
Morgan Ensberg
Jason Lane
Luke Scott
Willy Taveras
Brad Ausmus
Roy Oswalt

That's...not a lot of offense. With that same roster, I would probably go for

Biggio
Ensberg
Bagwell
Lane
Scott
Everett
Taveras
Ausmus
Oswalt
(that might be the worst 6-9 ever)

but it really doesn't matter much over the long run. What DOES matter is we have 4 guys in that lineup who will almost certainly not have a .350 OBP: Everett, Biggio, Taveras, Ausmus. We need Berkman back, and fast, and we need 2003 Ensberg and a big year from Lane.

Well, that's about it. My overall thoughts on the offseason are we blew it with the Beltran 'deadline' (should have set it a month earlier so it didn't cost up every other good FA), a soft market for relievers, but the deals to Clemens / Oswalt / Berkman were solid.

I'd like to talk about baseball today. I really would. But I can't. Here's why:

About 5pm last night, I decided to play a 50-dollar entry fee poker tournament at Party Poker. I didn't have much planned for the night, and I need a break from 'limit' games. So I sign up, along with 419 other people, and start playing with 800 chips. I'm doing decently well when I get a call from the math lab that I work at. They need me to come in to proctor a make-up test for one of my students. DAMN! I give JT a call, hoping he can play the tournament for me, but he's not there. So I figure, what the heck, I'll just go all-in next hand, 'cause I have to go. So I go all in with Q10 of diamonds. Two guys call. One has AK. One has JJ. A queen comes on the flop. I triple up. I can't make this stuff up, I swear. Only then do I realize I can click on 'away' and it will just post my blinds for me, so I'll stay in the tourney. I finally reach JT as I'm driving to the lab, and he agrees to play for me until I get back (basically sacrificing a fantasy baseball draft to do so.) At this point I have about 1400 chips.

While I'm in the lab my roommate Mike calls, and basically orders me to go sake-bombing with him. I try and argue, but to no avail. JT calls me every 10 mins or so for an update - he doubles up with 99 vs. 68, then takes a bad beat after having the nut straight with AK (the board pairs on the river, giving an all-in guy a full house), then doubles up again, I think.

Finally I get home, and take over with about 4100 in chips. The 2nd hand I play I have 99, and double up when the flop comes 743 and some guy with AK pushes all-in. Then I don't get any decent hands for about 30 mins to an hour, putting me down to around 5600 in chips. Todd's also started watching me and giving me occasional advice (along with JT) on IM. Then I win a few hands, and I'm at right around 17000 or so with the blinds getting pretty rough (maybe 800/1600 or 1000 /2000) when the following hand happens. I have 77 UTG (this means I'm the first to act - the blinds are to my right). I raise to about 5000, I think, and everyone folds....until the small blind, one of the chip leaders, raises to 20,000, easily enough to put me all-in. I think...and think...and think. JT is unsure - Todd says call. I think it's probably a coin flip situation, meaning he has two overcards: AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. But if he has a higher pair, I'm a huge underdog. I finally decide to call based on Todd's advice and the fact that I've already put in about 1/3 of my stack. My opponent flips over AK, and my 77 holds up. I double up to about 35K!

Then I play pretty tight for a while again, as it's getting close to the final table (maybe 20 guys left or so). Then I have 88 in middle position, raise to around 10000 or so (I think the blinds were 1500/3000, maybe 2000/4000 at this point), get called by the guy immediately to my left, then the big blind(a very loose and aggressive player) raises to 17000. I call, thinking of pot odds, and so does the guy on my left. The flop comes 227, with 2 diamonds. In other words, the perfect flop for me, since I've almost surely got the best hand, unless someone has a pocket pair higher than 88 (unlikely), or a 2 (even more unlikely) or 77 (no WAY). So I go all in for the rest of my chips. The guy on my left RAISES to around 50K. The big blind folds, and the raiser flips over A6 of diamonds! So he went all-in on just a draw, although a pretty good draw. But no ace and no diamonds come, and I double up to around 80,000! Huge pot for me.

Then I play pretty tight, and eventually (it takes a long time) we get down to the final table, the last 10 players. I'm either the chip leader or close to it - I can't exactly remember. I don't get many good hands for a long time, but a few other guys get knocked out, and it gets down to 5 players or so. Then I knock a guy out when I go all-in with AQ and he calls with A5. See ya. Then it gets down to 3, and the more dangerous opponent gets knocked out by a tight but not-aggressive player on a KK (dangerous player) vs. AA (tight player) hand. Remember this.

So now it's heads up, me vs. a guy that I'm pretty sure I can beat, although he has me outchipped around 280,000 to 140,000. We battle back and forth a bit, and then I'm dealt AA in the big blind. He minimum raises to 16,000 (blinds are 4K / 8K at this point). I raise to 50,000. He goes all-in!! I take a little while, savoring the moment, and then call. He flips over KK!! Tough luck for him, but no K comes, and I double up, and am now in a commanding chip lead, around 350,000 to 60,000. We go back-and-forth a bit, then I put him all-in with AJ, he calls with K6, and he hits a straight on the river - but I hit a flush on the river! So, in summary:

50+5 dollar entry fee
420 entrants
1st place pays $5250.

So I went from trying to leave this tournament to winning the whole thing, and making a cool $5200 in the process. After paying JT (after all, he did play for me for a while) and Todd (for the advice, especially on the 77 hand), I shouldn't have to worry about rent for a little while.

Anyway, I was pretty happy, and I still can't completely believe it. Gotta go teach - thanks again to everyone that helped out. Later.

Phil Garner was interviewed by Tom Verducci in Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview this week. When asked to define the perfect number 2 hitter, Garner had this to say: "What I'm looking for in my number 1 and 2 hitters are guys who can get on base. I'm looking for guys at least in the .350 to .360 range for on-base percentage."

This is a good attitude to have. You don't have to be Billy Beane to recognize how important OBP really is. Now let's hope Garner backs up his words by keeping our best hitters toward the top of the lineup. If Everett can't produce at the two-spot, I hope he inserts Ensberg there. Better still, let's hope A.E. can post a .350 OBP so Ensberg can drive in more runs in the five- or six-spot.

Garner also had this to say about the cleanup spot: "You want a guy who'll hit 25 home runs or better. On-base percentage is not as critical. Generally, you get on base to get into scoring position. But the 4 hitter should be in scoring position every time he comes to bat."

I'm not sure if that last sentence makes any sense or not, but Garner isn't saying much here. I wonder if the 25 home runs were any reference to Bagwell's decline. Garner earlier this Spring said he'd be fine if Bags only hit 15 this year, as long as he kept driving in runs. I anticipate at least 25 this year for Bagwell, although I also expect his average to hover in the .270s. I wonder how his new stance is working out?

Jack — I agree that the Astros need to consider the future. Berkman, Oswalt, Lidge, Burke, Taveras, Ensberg, Lane, Everett are a strong starting cast. But what's the big deal about sending Burke back to AAA. We all know he's going to be the second baseman of the future anyway, so why not give him even more time to develop and work out the kinks before he plays full time? (This is more of a Devil's Advocate than a real argument.)

Baseball Prospectus 2005, my favorite baseball annual, was waiting on my doorstep when I got home yesterday. I flipped to the Astros section, and was not surprised to find that their analysis was not positive. They started by praising the Astros 'going for it' with the Beltran trade, and highlighted our 9th inning comeback against the Expos as a 'turning point' of the season.

Then:

"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...

The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...

One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...

This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...

But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...

Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...

The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."


Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.

BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:

Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.

Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.

Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.

Brooks Conrad: It's worth mentioning that PECOTA sees better things in 2005 for Conrad that it does for Burke, with his power and walks carrying the day.

Jason Lane: Career .280 / .351 / .526 in 263 PA's. He's been a better baseball player than Craig Biggio for three years now. Lane can rake, and would put up All-Star numbers if left alone to play.

Luke Scott: A throw-in in the Willy Taveras trade, Scott gets in here because of a big half-season at Round Rock. He doesn't bring much to the table other than his bat.

Todd Self: Self is just a marginal prospect, but his plate discipline is real and he could be good for 40 doubles and 15 homers through his peak. A Mark Grace / Wally Joyner hitter with average defense will let you spend money elsewhere.

Willy Taveras: One of the fastest players in the game. His '04 was hailed as a breakthrough but it was almost entirely a batting average thing - his power and strike jone judgment is poor. He needs time in Triple-A almost as much as the Astros need him to push Biggio aside.

Ezequiel Astacio: His strikeout rate nearly doubled with a comparable improvement in his stirkeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be in Houston before the year is over, and could have a big role in their bullpen.

Brandon Backe: His future success as a starter will hinge on how effective his change-up is against lefties. A converted outfielder, he's a good hitter to boot.

Taylor Bucholz: His curve is major league ready, and his command was voted best in the PCL. If his change-up comes around, he has a nice future as a starter; if it doesn't, he'll make a nice set-up man.

Mike Gallo: A lefty specialist who can't get out lefties is completely worthless. Purpura should keep an eye on the waiver wire.

Carlos Hernandez: He'll continue to improve at a slow pace, on his way to being a good pitcher again in 2006.

Fernando Nieve: Astacio's live arm gets more play, but Nieve's future could be just as bright.

Roy Oswalt: Through four seasons, his career is a virtual match for Mike Mussina's, except Mussina never took that step forward, staying at his established level for ten more years. Oswalt could; he has everything it takes to make the same leap Greg Maddux did in 1992 that allowed him to become the best pitcher in baseball.

Chad Qualls: His sinker/slider/strikes mix should work well at Minute Maid Park, giving the Astros a cheap, effective reliever.

Dan Wheeler: He's tough on righties, which is particularly useful in a division with lots of righty-heavy lineups.


Whew. So that's about it. Again, I think these guys are spot-on (which again isn't a big surprise, since BP is one of the reasons I first got into baseball statistics, so I tend to be a bit biased). I didn't really learn anything here that I didn't already know, except that they like Conrad a lot. I particularly like the comment on Todd Self - finding young, cheap, league-average players to fill most of your roster spots and spending the big bucks on true superstars like Berkman, Oswalt, and Lidge, is absolutely the way to go.

With that in mind, how's this for a 2007 Astros lineup:

C Humberto Quintero / Hector Gimenez
1B Todd Self
2B Chris Burke / Brooks Conrad
SS Adam Everett / Chris Burke
3B Morgan Ensberg / Mitch Einerston
LF Jason Lane / Luke Scott
CF Willy Taveras
RF Lance Berkman

SP Roy Oswalt
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Brandon Backe
SP Carlos Hernandez

CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP Taylor Bucholz
RP Dan Wheeler

You know, that's not bad at all. Our biggest eventual 'holes' (areas in which we could sign an elite free agent who would make the biggest difference) are C, 1B, SS, CF, SP #2-5, and RP. Baseball Prospectus is also fond of saying that you should try and give your biggest contracts to excellent up-the-middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) players since they are also by far the most important defenders and you can often find good-hitting corner outfielders and corner infielders on the waiver wire or throughout the minor leagues. With that in mind, I think C, CF, and an elite SP will be our biggest needs in the coming free agencies.

Baseball Prospectus 2005, my favorite baseball annual, was waiting on my doorstep when I got home yesterday. I flipped to the Astros section, and was not surprised to find that their analysis was not positive. They started by praising the Astros 'going for it' with the Beltran trade, and highlighted our 9th inning comeback against the Expos as a 'turning point' of the season.

Then:

"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...

The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...

One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...

This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...

But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...

Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...

The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."


Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.

BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:

Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.

Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.

Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.

* Gotta run - I'll finish later.

ARGGGGGH...

I made a long post about the Redding trade and my computer glitched AGAIN.

Ok, this time for sure:

REDDING TRADED

They finally traded him. The Astros traded constantly frustrating Tim Redding and cash considerations to the San Diego Padres for catcher Humberto Quintero. This likely narrows the #5 starter role to Brandon Duckworth or Ezequiel Astacio.

Redding was agonizing to watch. Some days he'd cruise right along; some days he'd put up a

3 IP

10 H

8 ER

3 HR

2 BB

1 K

kind of line. He wasn't well-liked by the players or the fans in Houston, so he really needed to move on.

What about Humberto Quintero? From everything I've read this morning, he's an excellent defensive catcher (we love those, don't we?) with a little pop in his bat. He's only 25, so I'm hoping he can improve the next year or two. At worse, he'll challenge Raul Chavez for the backup catching position. At best, he's an excellent defensive and league-average offensive catcher for a year or two until the Astros find someone better.

Here are Quintero's minor league stats from 2003 and 2004:

2003 - AA - .298 / .343 / .389, 19 BB, 29 XBH, 386 AB

2004 - AAA - .317 / .348 / .471, 8 BB, 30 XBH, 259 AB

So he's a young catcher who doesn't walk but has shown decent power, and he's reportedly got a cannon for an arm. I think he could probably put up a .270 / .310 / .400 line in the majors in '06 and '07, which would make him a perfectly acceptable stopgap until we develop / sign / trade for someone better.

All in all, good trade. We had to get rid of Redding, and everyone knew it, so to get anything in value was a plus. Catcher was also by far the weakest position in our organization. Good job, Purpura.

* Mike Gallo gives up a leadoff HR to Ruben Sierra in the 8th and goes on to give up 2 more runs, so the Astros lose 7-4. Looks like Gallo will most likely not make the team, since Franco is a better situational lefty and we can't really afford to carry two lefties in the bullpen with Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Burba, and Astacio all in the mix. Our bats went pretty dead after the first two innings. I liked what I saw from Luke Scott, Andy Pettitte, and Chad Qualls.

* After 7 innings it's 4-4. Brad Lidge relieved in the 5th; dominated. Dan Wheeler came in and gave up 2 runs, then Chad Qualls came in and looked great, striking out A-Rod to end the inning. Our offense has been quiet for a while - Chris Tremie had one of the worst AB's I've ever seen (although it was against Mariano Rivera), and Willy Taveras keeps popping up and swinging at a lot.

* Through 3 innings, the Astros lead 3-2. Andy Pettitte was cruising along until have gave up a 2 out triple to Jeter followed by a wind-aided HR by A-Rod. Morgan Ensberg and Chris Burke have made some nice defensive plays at 3rd and 2nd, respectively.

Here's the latest quote from Phil Garner on the 2nd base situation:

"Asked if Burke has done enough this spring to unseat Biggio from the second base position, Garner responded, "Probably not," and emphasised that the question is not whether Biggio will start this year, but rather where he will start, left field or second base.
"Has [Burke] done enough to put Biggio on the bench?" Garner said. "Probably not. Burke will someday be in that same position. It's a difficult situation for a young player to be in. Biggio is showing no signs of slowing down and he had a good year last year. Would this team be better with Burke? That remains to be seen, but Biggio has earned the right to have the opportunity first.
"The decision won't be if Burke has unseated Biggio as much as it is, is the ballclub better with Burke in the lineup at second and Biggio in the lineup in left?"

Here's a paragraph later on in the same article:

"Biggio, who is hitting .243 (9-for-37) with a .243 on-base percentage, one double, one RBI and six strikeouts this spring, has played in the outfield only once this spring, and that was in a minor-league game. Burke is hitting .294 (10-for-34) with a .529 slugging percentage, a .415 on-base percentage and a double, two triples, one home run, six RBIs, five walks and seven strikeouts."

Ouch. That hurts. So Biggio has one walk and one extra base hit in 37 AB's, while Burke has 5 walks and four extra base hits in 34 AB's. So, of course, we're going with Biggio.

I'll be realistic for once - Biggio is going to start somewhere, whether it's LF or 2B. I guess I can't argue that Luke Scott has had a better spring than Chris Burke, but Scott has also never played above AA, while Burke had a great year at AAA last year. However, it looks like Garner is sold on Scott being the starting LF, so let's assume our Opening Day lineup looks like:

Biggio
Everett
Bagwell
Ensberg
Lane
Scott
Taveras
Ausmus

That's not a very inspiring lineup. With Biggio, Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and the pitcher, we've got 5 very possible slots for a sub-.330 OBP. Only Bagwell and Lane are locks for a .450 SLG. We're probably not going to score very many runs until Lance gets back.

We still have to find a way to get Chris Burke at-bats, though, so I'll go back to my recommended plan of having Burke start when extreme groundballer Andy Pettitte is on the mound. I don't think even Craig Biggio could argue that Burke is better defensively at 2B than he is. If Burke starts at least every 5th day and is our primary RH pinch hitter off the bench, he should get a decent amount of AB's.

I'm watching the Astros-Yankees game today on MLB.TV - it's great quality, and we're up 2-0 after Willy Taveras singled, stole 2nd, and was driven in on an opposite-field double by Luke Scott, who was then driven in after a single by Lamb and a sac fly by Jason Lane. Both Taveras and Scott looked great at the plate to me.

I had a great time in Phoenix for a few days. I arrived Wednesday afternoon and met a friend for the Rangers-Royals game at Surprise Stadium. The starting pitchers were Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima - I wish I was sitting in the outfield. Mark Teixeira CRUSHED an early HR nearly out of the stadium, and Alfonso Soriano and Matt Stairs also had HR's. Oh yeah, and my friend is the nephew of Rangers manager Buck Showalter, so we had great seats, and I got to meet Buck himself after the game. He went to Mississippi State and I went to Vanderbilt, so we had some good-natured SEC competitive trash-talking going. He was a heck of a guy - very personable and polite - probably because his team had just won.

Then I crashed on the coach at my roommate's girlfriend's house that night; the next day, I got to the Cubs / Angels game about 3 hours early - no problem getting a ticket, right? Wrong. Cubs fans are EVERYWHERE, and the game was sold out. Quite a few guys were still waiting in line at the ticket counter, and one of them told me that the players usually send back a bunch of tickets before the game starts, so I hopped in line. Almost instantly, about 50 more people got in line right behind me. An elderly couple approached me and asked if I would buy them 2 tickets. I said sure, and after waiting in line for about 45 minutes, I bought 3 tickets at 6 bucks each. They gave me a 20 dollar bill and said "Thanks!" Sweet; free game for me. I got lawn seats, so I was out in left field. It was Kelvim Escobar vs. Carlos Zambrano - a pretty good pitching matchup, but I figured Vladi or Aramis Ramirez might hit one out to me. The first HR hit that day? Carlos Zambrano took Escobar DEEP to right field. D'oh! Then Derrek Lee homered to center, Darin Erstad homered to right, and that was that. K-Rod came on late for the Angels and made a bunch of guys look silly to get the save.

I was then planning on going to the San Diego game, but I was pretty sunburned, so I decided to stop by Casino Arizona and play some poker. They've got a great poker room - 45 tables, tons of big screen TV's, no smoking. I didn't do much for the first hour or two, and then came the hand of my life (so far):

I call with 55 in 1st position.
A few guys limp in middle positions.
The small blind raises. I call, all the limpers call.
The flop comes 3-5-7 rainbow. I check, all the limpers check, the small blind bets, I raise, everyone folds, the small blind calls.
The turn brings another 5! So I've got quads. I bet, the small blind raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he calls.
The river is an A. I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he 6-bets, I 7-bet, he calls, and flips over AA (the 2nd nuts).
So I raked what must have been a 200 dollar pot, almost all heads-up!
Man, my heart was pumping...what an experience. My victim took it pretty well, too - he was way up before that.

The next day I was planning on going to the Giants game, but I felt like coming home to Flagstaff, so I did.

It was a hell of a trip, great weather, good baseball, sleeping on a couch.

I'll post later today with this Astros summary (and more Biggio / Burke comments by Phil Garner).

Computer Glitches, Yesterday's Game, and a Road Trip

I listened to the Astros's 14-8 win over the Phillies yesterday, wrote a long post about it, and my computer immediately glitched. So here it goes again:

Ezequiel Astacio pitched 4 innings, allowed 3 hits, 1 BB, and had 5 K. Another solid outing for 'Zeke', and while I still believe he should be started in the bullpen (because Redding / Duckworth shouldn't just be released), he's looked fantastic this spring, and I'm not sure how long we'll be able to keep him in the pen.
Luke Scott did his usual spring thing, with a single, HR, and 4 RBI. Ho-hum. There's not much more to say about this guy. Pass it off as fluky if you must, but he's earned a chance to prove that it's not a fluke in the Show.
A bunch of other offensive contributions (Chris Burke with a late triple; he's now hitting .296, has drawn 5 walks, and is slugging over .500, while Craig Biggio is hitting .265 and is slugging .294 with 1 extra base hit, but it looks as though he'll be our starting 2B), but our pitching was sketchy: in particular, Dave Burba should start looking for good flight prices, as he got hammered again this spring - he's got a 9.26 ERA in 11.2 innings. He's had a fine career, but it doesn't look like it will continue here.

ESPN SportsCenter reported last night that the Astros are still likely to trade for an outfielder in the next 10 days, with Randy Winn, Mike Cameron, and Eric Byrnes as possible targets. I'm glad to have the Winn rumors start up again, as I think he'd be our best fit (excellent 2nd half last year, no injury concers, younger / cheaper than Mike Cameron). Seattle is also home to one of the less intelligent GM's in the game in Bill Bavasi - this would be a great test to see what kind of deal Purpura can get. You would think the M's would be almost looking to get rid of Winn - they've got Ibanez / Reed / Ichiro! in the OF, and Sexson and Bucky Jacobsen at 1B / DH. But you never know. My task for Purpura is to find a way to trade for Winn without trading Chris Burke, if at all possible. I know I said trade him yesterday, but I was frustrated because of his lack of playing time and clear superiority (this spring, at least) over Craig Biggio. But, as someone reminded me, Biggio is a 39-year old 2nd basemen who gets hit by a lot of pitches; there's a decent chance he could get injured and be Wally Pipp-ed by Burke. We'll see.

Vanderbilt lost to Memphis in the NIT quarterfinals last night - we started off hot, going up 11-2, but then tried to run with Memphis for a while instead of playing halfcourt basketball. By the time we started hitting a few shots again, we were down 10, and Memphis was the better team last night, especially on the boards. Good luck to them.

So I'm finally heading down to Phoenix in a few hours; I'm going to the Rangers - Royals game tonight and hopefully a few others on Friday and Saturday. JT, Andy, it's all yours.

Solid outings by Oswalt and Pettitte the last two games (both wins). I'd still like to see Pettitte wait and start the 4th or 5th game of the season, but I doubt it'll happen. Luke Scott is still the big offensive star; here are his numbers this spring, before today's game (when he went 2-for-2):

26 AB
6 H
3 2B
3 HR
8 RBI
.423 AVG
.885 SLG

I'm beating a dead horse here, but Scott MUST MAKE THE TEAM, at the least while Berkman is hurt.

Richard Justice was on KTRH the other day, and he still believes the Astros will acquire a 'big' bat, possibly (again) Mike Cameron. Chris Burke isn't getting any playing time at 2B; I think it's likely Biggio will start there all year, demoting Burke to backup IF, where the presence of Proven Veteran might even push Burke back to AAA. Much as I like Burke, he needs to play now, so I'd rather trade him than have him spend another year at AAA; I think Brooks Conrad will probably be ready next year anyway. I wonder if we could find a different A's team to try and make a 3-way trade with; the Mets reportedly need a corner OF to replace Cameron. Wily Mo Pena of the Reds? Termel Sledge of the Nats? Raul Ibanez of the Mariners? With Cameron signed for two more years, an OF of Lane / Cameron / Berkman wouldn't be too bad; this would push Scott and Taveras to their rightful places as backup OF's, and an IF (this year) of Ensberg / Everett / Biggio / Bagwell, with Conrad coming up soon. Here's the thing about Burke - he's 25, and he had never displayed power like last year. I think last year may have been a touch fluky. I still want him on my team, but if he doesn't start this year, he might just be blocking Conrad next year, and we probably coudn't get the same value for him in a trade than if we traded him NOW. Just a thought.