Astros win NLDS Game One, 10-5 over Braves

Wow. I expected us to score about 10 runs this entire series. But we got all the timely hits we could have asked for, and everyone did their job well tonight. Biggio set the table with two hits, a sac fly, a sac bunt and a walk. Ensberg drove a run home in four of his at-bats tonight, three of which followed a Berkman walk. In fact, every starter took a walk except for Ausmus and every starter besides Taveras reached base twice.

And there was Pettitte, who allowed only four hits in seven brilliant innings. He only made two mistakes all game, and they both left the yard. He was efficient and at his best when it counted the most: With two on and one out in the fourth, and after Andruw had already slammed a two-run homer, Pettitte induced Astro-killer Brian Jordan into a double play. Good stuff.

Our hitters did a great job early on taking advantage of Hudson's miscues. We saw that he was struggling with his command in the first few innings, and rattled him by taking walks and playing small ball. Pettitte was great at the plate, laying down two sac bunts and hitting a ground rule double for an important late-inning insurance run. Good thing it didn't matter.

This team has struggled mightily recently at getting hits in important situations, but Ensberg showed today that a patient, easy appraoch is the best way to knock in RBIs. Especially when the pitcher displays a lack of command, just sit back and wait for a pitch you can handle. Then put a good swing on it. (Jason Lane, are you taking notes?) It seems everyone took his advice in our five-run eighth inning.

Garner managed this game well. It was odd to see Berkman hitting third again after four months of hitting cleanup, but this combination worked wonders today. As did our 1-2 punch of Biggio and Taveras. I thought we'd bat Ausmus seventh ahead of Everett, but both did well today. Everett nearly hit a homer in the second but was robbed by Jordan. I guess all in all, the exact order doesn't really matter. Especially if everyone's taking walks and hitting singles.

Game Two: Thursday, 8 p.m. EDT. Clemens vs. Smoltz. Yikes. Thirty strikeouts, anyone? Smoltz is definitely a different type of pitcher than Hudson, so we'll have to change our approach against him . I don't expect him to have a command breakdown and start throwing balls to the backstop like Hudson. But I do hope our hitter realize how important it is to get to that Atlanta bullpen. So be patient, work the count, foul off pitches, wait for your pitch and give it a drive.

Smoltz is death on righties, so I expect Lamb to start at first and hit fifth or sixth. Lamb was MONEY in September, hitting .319 / .392 / .609 with five homers in 69 ABs. And lately he's been able to get big hits off great pitchers (Carpenter, Zambrano...)

I hope we saved a few seeing-eye grounders for this game, where hits and walks will be scarce. Biggio and Taveras need to get on board for our big boppers, since I don't expect much from the bottom of the order. I'm going to predict a big game from Lamb and a clutch hit for Lane. He needs one.

J.T. and Jack both agree... we pitch Backe at home on Sunday if we're up 2-1 in the series. If we're down 2-1, we go with Pettitte on three days' rest and Clemens in Game Five. But I'm sure we'll finish this one up with a sweep.

Got Astros-Braves series previews?

Check out Aaron Gleeman's, Baseball Prospectus's (gotta be an Insider for the whole thing), Lisa Gray's (cool blog!), and if you're into updated commentary on the game, check out Baseball Primer's Game Chatter.

Enjoy, and GO ASTROS!

I'm sick of all the "Anonymous" comments that turn out to be spam, so I turned on word verification. Basically, if you want to leave a comment (which you really should, I'm curious to see what you think), you have to type in a word that they tell you to, as if you were buying something online or whatnot.

Checking out Andy's latest post, I have to say I'm impressed...and depressed. I didn't realize our budget was that tight - I guess I was forgetting about Bagwell. It would be nice to move him to the AL where he could DH, but what team would take a chance on him? I think we're probably stuck with him. He's been rehabbing like a maniac, and I definitely think his hitting will be fine (maybe .270 / .380 / .470 = fine), but it's his throwing I'm worried about. I guess only time will tell.

I also like the idea of signing a cheap starter who can give us 200 IP at around a 4.00 ERA. In fact, I will go so far as to say that whether we do or not could make or break or season next year. It's just asking too much to have Wandy and Zeke be major-league starters next year. A Paul Byrd / Brett Tomko type is just what we need.

I also like the "better utility guy than Viz" thought. Ramon E. Martinez is a solid player, and I vividly remember going to an Astros game against the Cubs and Andy chose him as his "Cub Player of the Game". After I finished laughing, I proceeded to watch Mr. Ramon E. Martinez go 5-for-5. His stats haven't been too impressive the last few years, so I might suggest Damion Easley of the Marlins. He's going to be 36, but he has much more pop than Martinez and drawas a few more walks, and he's hit well on the road the last 2 years (746 OPS this year, 837 OPS the year before). I say sign him to a 1 year / 1.2 million dollar deal or so, and give Everett or Bidge the occasional day off.

Speaking of Biggio, you can say what you want about his 1 year / 4 million dollar deal (we need to play Burke more! But Biggio's going for 3,000 hits!), but the fact of the matter was this was inevitable. The Astros are not going to let go of Biggio and Bagwell until they are damn well ready, and this offseason isn't that time yet.

Oh, and Scott Eyre? Pretty good. Solid numbers against lefties, and still good against righties, too. Thumbs up.

I still like trying to trade for Johnny Estrada at catcher, but one more year of Ausmus, thought it pains me to say it, wouldn't be too bad. He put up a solid offensive year when we had to have it. Just don't give him a multi-year deal. PLEASE.

NLDS, Game One: 4 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Oct. 5: Pettitte vs. Hudson.

Purpura announced our roster for the Divisional Series. It's mostly as expected, with Luke Scott winning the 25th spot over Charles Gipson and Zeke Astacio. I like the move; our bench is essentially devoid of power, and despite his poor season I think Scott provides us with some. Besides, Burke can handle Gipson's recent pinch running duties for the DS, since it appears Lamb will get all the starts against the Braves' righties. So here's how the roster shapes out:

C: Ausmus, Chavez
IF: Bagwell, Biggio, Bruntlett, Ensberg, Everett, Lamb, Viz
OF: Berkman, Burke, Lane, Palmeiro, Taveras, Scott
P: Backe, Clemens, Gallo, Lidge, Oswalt, Pettitte, Qualls, Springer, Wheeler, Rodriguez

BRING IT!

All this talk about filling out rosters got me thinking about our roster for next year and what kind of off-season we'll have with our payroll. Essentially, it'll be the same core. In fact, everyone but Ausmus, Springer and a guy named Clemens are either signed to a contract or are still under club control.

Financially, we're in a mess: Our huge backloaded contracts with Bagwell and Pettitte kick in BIG TIME, and Oswalt and Berkman get their first taste of huge contract money. In fact, we owe $64 million to those five: Pettitte ($17.5 million), Bagwell ($17), Berkman ($14.5), Oswalt ($11) and Biggio ($4). That's already more than San Diego's payroll this year. Yikes. Add in substantial raises for Ensberg and Lidge, and smaller raises all the way around, and we might have to face an unfortunate fact:

We can't afford Clemens next year.

Not if he wants more than $10 million, anyway. The way I see it, we can barely afford to field a team without him. Here's who we have for 2006 (contracts are in parentheses; question marks are my attempts at arbitration deals):

C Quintero (0.3?)
1B Bagwell (17)
2B Biggio (4)
3B Ensberg (3?)
SS Everett (1?)
IF/OF Bruntlett (0.5?)
IF Lamb (1?)
LF Berkman (14.5)
CF Taveras (0.5?)
RF Lane (0.75?)
LF/2B Burke (0.5?)
OF Scott (0.5?)

SP Oswalt (11)
SP Pettitte (17.5)
SP Backe (1.5?)
SP Astacio (0.5?)
SP Wandy (0.5?)
RP Lidge (3?)
RP Burns (0.3?)
RP Qualls (0.5?)
RP Wheeler (0.5?)
RP Gallo (0.5?)

That's just under $80 million for 22 players. If Drayton wants to keep payroll around $85 million, we don't have much to work with this offseason. Hopefully Bagwell stays healthy. I've heard folks calling for his retirement (or at least a restructuring of his contract), but this is madness. The fact is the man can hit, and will be able to hit until he's sixty-four. He has been rehabbing his bum shoulder for months now, and he's optimistic about coming back to play first in 2006. I believe him. Going into this offseason, we need to find a catcher, a cheap fourth starter, a reliever, and maybe a cheap utility man.

I'd like to sign a better offensive shortstop to replace Everett, but there doesn't appear to be a good candidate. Furcal and Nomar won't fit into our budget, and Alex Gonzalez, Neifi Perez, Royce Clayton and Chris Woodward aren't exactly offensive upgrades. So we're stuck with Everett for '06. But my patience with his lack of offense is wearing thin.

Catcher: Humberto Quintero might be our catcher of the future, but not next year. Keep in mind, he's only 26, so he's still got potential. He'll make a good backup for '06 as he's groomed to play more often. I assume we'll drop Chavez. Ausmus's contract expires after this year, and he has said he wants to play for another year or two. A few months ago, I'd have said Hell No, but his second half was incredible... for him anyway (.275 / .373 / .365). In fact, his .350 OBP in 2005 was 7th best among major league catchers with 300 or more at-bats. Wow. There's no telling if he can keep that up as a 37-year-old in '06, but I think his defense and game-calling might make him worth a one-year, $1 million contract.

Ramon Hernandez and Mike Piazza are the premier free agents at catcher, but both will probably be out of our price range. (We both thought Houston native Jason LaRue was a free agent, but he is actually under Reds control through next year). Piazza no doubt will join an AL team to DH, and Hernandez will probably go for the big bucks. The Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners, Mets, D-Backs, Dodgers and Padres are in need of help at catcher, so we'll have competition for Hernandez. And while he is good, a .325 career OBP isn't worth $6 million a year, which is what he'll probably make. I'll take Ausmus for another year, then wait and see if Quintero pans out. If not, LaRue, Posada, Barajas, Javy and Pierzynski are available after 2006.

Starter: I really don't think we'll be able to afford Clemens, which is unfortunate and ridiculous, because at age 43 he was BY FAR the best pitcher in baseball. Absolutely astounding. But if we don't re-sign him, I don't think both Astacio and Wandy will be ready to start full-time. No, what we need is a cheap, short-term fill-in. Someone who can pitch 200 innings with a 4.00 or 4.50 ERA.

There are a few big names out there. Burnett, Weaver, Morris, Brown, Washburn and Millwood are all probably too expensive for us. Second-tier free agents include Rick Helling, Al Leiter, Brett Tomko, Hideo Nomo, Tony Armas Jr., and Jamie Moyer. Pedro Astacio and Scott Elarton both had success with Houston in the past; they're both free agents now... Paul Byrd is available, and he's just the type of pitcher we want. He signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Angels, and posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 204 innings. Great signing.

Utility man: Please let us do away with the reign of Jose Vizcaino. I personally like Eric Bruntlett as our main utiliy man. He can play short and second as well as centerfield, and is only 27. But I'd like to sign a decent back-up middle infielder with a little pop. Our bench (Lamb, Bruntlett, Burke, Scott, Quintero) isn't exactly murderer's row, and Bruntlett isn't ready to play everyday in case Everett gets hurt. I'm thinking of someone like Miguel Cairo, Ramon E. Martinez, Damion Easley or Damian Jackson. Unfortunately, these kinds of players usually make around $1 million, but it might be worth it if they can fill in admirably.

Reliever: Springer's a free agent. He'll be 37 in November, but he's pitched very well this year. If he wants to come back, I'd sign him up. Burns, Gallo, Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge will all be back, and I hope either Wandy or Zeke will be pushed into the bullpen after we sign a fourth starter.

Free agents lefty relievers include Scott Eyre, Mike Stanton, Alan Embree, Joey Eischen, Ricardo Rincon, Chris Hammond, Buddy Groom and Mike Myers. Righties include Bob Howry, Cal Eldred, Julian Tavarez, Tim Worrell, Felix Rodriguez, Paul Quantrill, Mike Timlin, Todd Jones, Chad Fox, Jay Witasick, Antonio Osuna, Jay Powell, Jeff Nelson and Jim Mecir.

We might call up a rookie or two, but not too many of our minor league pitchers fared too well. Both Carlos Hernandez and Taylor Buchholz both struggled. Nieve breezed through AA, but was very hittable after being called up to AAA. Overall he struck out 171 and walked 62 in 167 innings. He'll be up soon. Jason Hirsh had a great year with AA Round Rock: 13-8 with a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts. He allowed only 137 hits (12 homers) and 42 walks in 172.1 innings while striking out 165. He's got stuff.

So, assuming we don't fork over $20 million to Clemens, Here are the players I would sign:

Ausmus, 1-year, $1 million
Tomko, 1-year, $3 million
Ramon E. Martinez, 1-year, $1 million
Scott Eyre, $750,000

Geez, that took a while. I don't know why I started looking at next year's team when this one is about to start a huge playoff series. But anyway, our game starts in less than 12 hours. Let's get right to it.

ASTROS!!!!!

I don't have time for a long post right now, but it's coming. I think Andy might write an eloquent (perhaps even poetic?) post sometime today, so I might just comment on that one.

Anyway, bring on the Braves.

WE'RE IN!

This Cubs series sure wasn't pretty, but we did what we needed to do by winning two of four. Roy couldn't preserve a 3-run lead, but we scored three in the sixth to go up 6-4 and Lidge held on for his 42nd save. The Phillies won in Washington about an hour before we finished off the Cubs... they got into the clubhouse just in time to see Bruntlett catch a liner off Jose Macias to end it.

Next up: Atlanta. For the fifth time in nine years, we'll take on the Braves in the NLDS. This was more of a one-sided rivalry until last year, when we finally won our first postseason series. We don't start the series until Wednesday, which is great for our pitchers to rest up. Especially Lidge, who's worked our last five games (with a day off Thursday). Here's the schedule:

Game 1 at Atlanta: Wednesday 4 p.m. ET: Pettitte vs. Hudson
Game 2 at Atlanta: Thursday 8 p.m. ET: Clemens vs. Smoltz
Game 3 at Houston: Saturday 1 p.m. ET: Oswalt vs. Sosa

The Braves lost their last four games of the season and finished only one game better than us. Their team is in many ways similar to ours: Great pitching, good power in the middle of the order, but clear holes in the lineup. Their front four of Furcal, Giles, Chipper and Andruw are tough to match, but beyond that, Francouer, LaRoche/Franco, Estrada/McCann and Langerhans/Johnson/Hollandsworth isn't fantastic.

It's the same with us: Berkman, Ensberg, Biggio and (I hope) Lane are going to have to carry our team. Lamb could surprise some folks, but I don't expect a whole lot out of Everett or Ausmus. Speaking of which, Ausmus was finally moved up to the seventh spot today. 'Bout freakin' time. I'm not a huge fan of changing our lineup so drastcially in the last week of the season, but this needed to happen. Ausmus' OBP is over .350, so he has a much better chance at driving home an run than Everett, whose offense is, shall we say, poop.

Biggio has batted leadoff for the past five games. I'm not crazy about the switch, since Taveras's ability to get on base with infield hits dimishes quickly if Biggio's on base. Sure, he'll never GIDP, but he absolutely cannot move a runner over without creating an out. Of course, with our Big Three on the mound, runs will come at a premium. Still, both Bidge andWilly ended with OBPs under .325. That's not pretty.

Speaking of Bidge, we agreed to a one-year, $4 million extension after the win today. Good move. Looks like we have $60 million invested in Pettitte, Oswalt, Berkman and Bagwell next year, and after raises to Ensberg, Lidge, Wheeler, Everett, Taveras, Backe... not to mention a possible monstrous one-year contract for Clemens, it could be an expensive year for Drayton.

But right now we gotta focus on these Braves. Pettitte gave up three earned in seven innings at Turner Field back in May, his only start against the Braves. Clemens went seven scoreless way back in April. In that game, Hudson pitched nine innings of shutout ball and we lost it 1-0 in the 12th. Ouch.

We'll have more previews Tuesday and a recap of the other playoff games. Right now, I'm picking the Cardinals, Yankees and Red Sox. Boring, I know. But how can you pick against Boston? And how can you pick against the Yankees? And the Cards? Come one...

2 straight losses to the Cubs. By one run each time. This one...really fucking hurt. But I'll take my chances with Brad Lidge on the mound with a 1-run lead every time. We'll get them tomorrow.

Another HUGE win for the Astros tonight. Tonight's was the best yet, as we banged up the Cardinals' best pitcher for six runs and beat their dominant closer in the ninth.

This win was a statement -- to the Phillies, who remained 2.5 games behind with a blowout win tonight but are quickly running out of time. To the Braves, who clinched the division yesterday for the (yawn) 14th straight year and who we'll face in the NLDS when we clinch the wild card. But most importantly, to the Cardinals, who had their best lineup and best pitcher on the mound and couldn't win.

Chris Carpenter was gunning for his fifth win of the year against us. He had been 4-0 against us, allowing all of THREE earned runs in 33 innings over four starts. In fact, entering this two-game series, the Cards had won 11 of 14 meetings this year and were on the verge of becoming this year's only ballclub with 100 wins.

But we swept the two-game set: the only time all year St. Louis has been swept. Sure, they'll say it doesn't really matter... that the team has already clinched and is just trying to get ready for the second season. Besides, it was only a two-game series anyway. Doesn't really count.

Well that ain't what we're saying.

We showed the Cardinals what it's gonna take to beat us this year. We don't have nearly as much firepower, but it can be explosive. . We can hit the long ball, as Lance and Lamb displayed in the fifth. We can maufacture runs like we did in our two-run rally in the sixth. We can pitch through their best hitters, which Russ Springer did with ease in the seventh. We can come back, a major problem we had in last year's postseason. Down 6-4 with twelve outs left, we scored three runs on five hits in the last four innings.

And we can win ballgames without our best pitching. Backe was not inspiring in his last regular season game, giving up five earned in 4 1/3 innings. He handled the middle of the order fairly well, but wasn;t sharp against the Cardinals' less feared hitters. Like Reggie Sanders, who hit one of his two bombs tonight off Backe. Or Carpenter, who hit his first two major league doubles and scored both times.

But Backe wasn't all that bad. He walked two in the first inning but none after that, a good sign that his control is under control. He gave up hits early in innings and for the most part was able to limit the damage. Really, Backe only gave up three runs on his own accord. Gallo came in to face Walker in the fifth with runners on the corners and one out, giving up a sac fly. Strickland then relieved and promptly served up Sanders' second homer.

These were surprising moves by Garner. And by surprising I mean dumb. Garner, an old-fashioned kind of guy, seems to love Gallo and the old lefty-versus-lefty matchup. The fact of the matter is, Gallo is not one of our top five relievers. I'd rank Burns and Springer ahead of him along with Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge. And Scott Strickland? You've got to be kidding me! I don't care if it's the fifth inning, in a tied game with playoff implications and the Wild Card on the line, we need our best pitchers out there. And Strickland ain't one of them.

Elsewhere, the San Diego Padres won the West with a win over the Giants. And finally climbed back to .500 at 79-79. I almost hope they end the season under .500. It is kind of a joke. I mean, half of the teams in the NL are better than the Padres. Still, they'll be no pushover for the Cardinals, who lost four of seven to the Pads this year. Their starters aren't great after Peavy -- Eaton, Lawrence, Astacio, Williams and Chan Ho aren't exactly aces. But their lineup is powerful, patient, and most importantly, balanced.

I've wondered: Is it really a good thing to send a bunch of bench players out there after you've clinched the division? Don't you want to end on a hot streak? I can understand resting your starters, but the Braves today sent all their bench warmers out there and got creamed by Colorado. Maybe Bobby Cox, like Billy Beane, isn't a playoff-style manager. He can generate long-term winning seasons with excellent pitching, well coached hitters, and the Joneses, but has a hard time winning short series.

Jack and I talked about Jim Edmonds today. People say he's having a down year this year. His OPS is .919. In fact, Jack tells me his last five years for the Cards is historic. Like, Willy Mays good. His OPS the past five years: .994, .974, .981, 1.002, 1.061, .919. And as one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball. He's got 331 career homers and will knock in his 1000th RBI if he gets three more this year. But I think the most amazing thing he does each game is play hard all day every day. When he strikes out, like he did against Springer in the seventh, he got mad at himself. Pissed. And when Lane popped a blooper up to center in the seventh, Edmonds gave it his all and dove full out to try and nab it. He hurt his wrist going for it, too, which wouldn't have been the best outcome, but that just shows you what kind of player he really is. As much as he's killed us over the years, I have utmost respect for him as a ballplayer.

Now then: down to business. We're back home, where we are a whole new team. Everyone hits better. Pettitte, Oswalt and Backe all pitch better. Win two of four and we're in. Let's go ahead and win them all:

Thursday vs. Cubs, 8 p.m. EDT: Wandy vs. Rusch
Friday, 8 p.m.: Pettitte vs. Zambrano
Saturday, 4 p.m.: Clemens vs. Williams
Sunday, 2 p.m.: Oswalt vs. Maddux

Meanwhile, the Phils have an off day before heading to D.C. to play the Nats. Good thing for them... they'd hear a TON of boos from their own fans once they get eliminated.

Let's go Stros!

An Astros win coupled with a Phillies loss on Tuesday puts Houston back in the driver's seat to clinch the wild card this weekend. Oswalt pitched seven strong innings and Lane and Biggio both hit homer #25 on the season (both career highs). Garner made a brilliant move by bringing in Lidge for the eighth to face Edmonds, Pujols and Walker. Lidge also pitched the ninth for his 39th save. Not only was this a great move to win the game, but it prepares Lidge for more two- or three-inning saves in the postseason.

In Philly, the Mets held on to a 3-2 lead without closer Braden Looper (who is without a September save). The Phils had runners in scoring position in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, but failed to score each time. In the bottom of the eighth, Beltran threw out David Bell trying to go first-to-third on a single. The throw was a bullet -- "Clemente-esque". So it looks like Beltran is helping us out after all. A shame we eliminated them from contention with our win. Haha.

So, entering Wednesday's games, the Astros are 86-71 with five games left to play. The Phils are 84-74 with four games left. Our magic number is down to three.

A couple notes on the team: Garner established our rotation for the remainder of the year. It's Backe tonight against Carpenter, then Wandy, Pettitte, Clemens and Oswalt respectively against the Cubs. had the mindset that if we had clinched before the last game of the season, we would rest Oswalt. But it works out well for him to stay fresh and gun for his 20th win. Then he'd be ready to pitch Game 3 of the NLDS after Pettitte and Clemens.

Biggio's mom underwent successful open heart surgery in Houston. Can you believe she actually scheduled the surgery for Monday, an Astros off-day, so her son wouldn't miss any games? That's a true fan.

Who says our team is inferior to last year's? We have even more dominant starting pitching with a healthy Pettitte and a more experienced Backe. We have a better bullpen with the emergence of Dan Wheeler. And while we will miss Beltran, Kent and Bagwell, we now have a speedy Willy T, a platoon of Burke or Lamb and Jason Lane, who's been on fire in the second half (.308 / .351 / .543). Okay, obviosuly our team is offensively offensive compared to last year's... but if Willy gets on base and causes havoc on the base paths... if Bidge, Ensberg, Berkman and Lane keep up their slugging... if Lamb/Burke, Everett and Ausmus contribute somehow... we might just score enough runs.

Here's a shot at our 25-man postseason roster. Keep in mind, we don't need nearly as many relievers:

Pitchers (10): Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt, Backe, Burns, Springer, Gallo, Qualls, Wheeler, Lidge

Batters (15): Willy, Bidge, Ensberg, Berkman, Lane, Lamb, Everett, Ausmus, Bagwell, Burke, Palmeiro, Vizcaino, Bruntlett, Chavez, Gipson

I don't think either Zeke or Wandy has the stuff to be able to come out of the bullpen and be effective in important games. It's a shame, but they aren't crucial to our winning short series. Burns, Gallo and Springer are there for mop up duty only, or if we go into extra innings. Let's hope they never see a lead.

I wanted Luke Scott in there as a left-handed pinch hitter, but he just sucks too much. We have Palmeiro in there as our lefty (and he has a career .350 OBP as a pinch hitter!). Gipson's our pinch runner, and everyone else is more important defensively than offensively. The bench drops off quick after Bagwell, as none of our guys have any pop. Again, any runs will have to run through Biggio, Ensberg, Berkman and Lane. Not to put any pressure on them, but they are our key hitters.

But anyway, first things first: We gotta clinch first. We face Carpenter tonight for the fifth time this year, and he's looking for his fifth win against us. Let's show 'em what they're gonna face in the NLCS.

Astros win! Roy-O pitches 7 strong against the Cards, and Lane and Biggio homer for a 3-1 victory. Plus, the Phillies lose, 3-2 against the Mets!

Astros 86-71
Phillies 84-74

More later... right now, celebration time at Racha Thai.

ASTROS!

Yeah Mets! New York scored four runs in a sloppy top of the eighth at Philadelphia to win 6-5 and send the Phils 1.5 games behind us.

The Astros had a much needed off day today. Hopefully we'll regroup from a pair of one-run losses in Chicago. Our remaining six games won't be much easier. Here are the matchups:

Tuesday in St. Louis, 8 p.m. EDT: Oswalt vs. Morris
Wednesday in St. Louis, 8 p.m. EDT: Backe vs. Carpenter
Thursday vs. Cubs, 8 p.m. EDT: Wandy vs. Rusch
Friday vs. Cubs, 8 p.m. EDT: Clemens vs. Zambrano
Saturday vs. Cubs, 4 p.m. EDT: Pettitte vs. Williams
Sunday vs. Cubs, 2 p.m. EDT: Oswalt vs. Maddux

I didn't think we'd face Carpenter again, but it looks like LaRussa has worked it so that we will face him. (I wonder if LaRussa wants us out of the playoffs? If we win the WC, the Cardinals face the Padres, if we don't, they'll play the Phillies... hmmmm). Looks like we'll get the same matchups we got in Chicago.

Here's how it went in Philly today: To start of the eighth, Charlie Manuel pulled Brett Myers, who had pitched seven solid innings and had thrown 110 pitches. Good move. Ugueth Urbina comes in and immediately gives up a double to Marlon Anderson. He then proceeds to walk the nigh un-walkable Jose Reyes. With closer Billy Wagner waiting in the bullpen, Manuel elects to stay with Urbina, who serves up a run-scoring double to Miguel Cairo. Beltran (who has been beyond terrible this year) taps a slow roller to second, whereupon Chase Utley (who has been beyond incredible this year) throws it away and allows two runs to score. Two pitchers later, Ryan Madson gives up a bases-loaded sac fly to rookie Mike Jacobs. Mets up, 6-5.

This loss can be placed squarely on the shoulders of Charlie Manuel. As soon as Ugueth got in trouble in the eighth, he should have brought in Wagner. Manuel claims Wagner had tightness in his peft shoulder, but Wagner had other ideas:

"Everybody's got soreness. Don't make no (stuff) up," he said, also mentioning he was able to pitch. Wagner is a big talker, especially when he's pissed off. But this was completely on the mark.

Too many times I see good teams lose close games with a crappy pitcher on the mound. Some managers wait to use their closers until the ninth inning, when a three-run lead isn't all that hard to protect. Sometimes the most important pitches are made in the seventh or eighth innings, and it's obvious that you best pitchers throwing your most important pitches to get the most important outs.

GArner has shown he's not afraid to use Lidge whenever it's necessary. We could have brought him in on Sunday to face Burnitz (or left in Qualls, who's tougher on lefties...). But his three-inning saves in last year's playoffs were genius. Every one of our six remaining games should be managed as if it were a playoff game, so I hope Lidge is ready for his best stuff yet. And Qualls and Wheeler, you guys are gonna have to bring it.

Let's go, Roy! Show those Cards what they're gonna see in the NLCS!

DAMN YOU MIKE GALLO

Heartbreaker of a loss: Cubs 3, Astros 2. Combined with the Phillies win over Cincy, we're now 1 game up with 6 to play. 2 of those at St. Louis, the next 4 at home against the Cubs again.

This one should have been ours.

We had numerous chances to score, including a bases loaded, 0 out situation in the 2nd. We got nothing. Then Jason Lane gets picked off 3rd with 2nd and 3rd and 2 out. Then Ensberg gets thrown out stealing with Jason Lane up and 2 outs in the 8th. Bad.

Andy Pettitte pitched great, allowing only 2 hits in 6 innings. One of them was a HR to D. Lee in the 1st, so we were playing catch-up the rest of the game. We finally broke through when Adam Everett walked (halleleujah!!), and Orlando Palmeiro had a HUGE pinch-hit triple. This brough up Willy T with 1 out, and he actually got a ball out of the infield, and deep enough to score Palmeiro. Sweet.

Then Chad Qualls relieves in the bottom of the 7th. D. Lee singles on the 1st pitch. Nomar grounds to 3rd, nice play by Ensberg. Barret grounds to SS, nice play by Everett. Jeromy Burnitz coming up.

Pretend you're Phil Garner:

Chad Qualls vs. lefties: 36.2 IP, 2 HR

Mike Gallo vs. lefties: 52. 2 IP, 6 HR

Jeromy Burnitz vs. LHP: 8 HR in 167 AB

Jeromy Burnitz vs. RHP: 15 HR in 411 AB

So, to sum up, Gallo gives up a higher percentage of HR to lefties than Qualls does, and Burnitz hits a higher % of HR against lefties than against righties.

Garner brings in Gallo. Gallo hangs a breaking ball. Burnitz crushes.

Gallo walked the next two guys, forcing Garner to go to Wheeler, who walked another guy before getting a groundout.

And that was the game.

Go with the guys who have you got you this far (Qualls, Wheeler, Lidge). Don't lose games because of guys like Mike Gallo.

This just in: Clemens will miss his next start on Saturday. Astacio will start in his place. Just heard this from the Astros announcers. I guess Clemens's hammy in acting up again. Damn. Better safe than sorry, I guess. We need Clemens healthy.

Astros at Cubs, Friday, 9/23:

CF Taveras
2B Biggio
3B Ensberg
1B Berkman
RF Lane
LF Burke
SS Everett
C Chavez
P Wandy

SS Neifi
2B Walker
1B Lee
3B Garciaparra
RF Burnitz
C Barrett
LF Murton
CF Patterson
P Rusch

Burnitz has been a bust for the Cubs. Sure has 23 homers and 84 RBI, but his averages (.263 / .328 / .445) are less than stellar. As bad as Burnitz has been, Patterson has been worse. He seems to swing wildly at everything, and his numbers (.221 / .258 / .361) show it. Ugh. Murton has good stats -- a .950 OPS -- in 11 at-bats. And Garciaparra, after an awful start and a bad groin injury, has an .848 OPS in the second half, most at third base. Let's do it.

Astros win, 2-1 over the Pirates. Backe allowed one run on two hits over seven innings and Berkman singled in Taveras twice in the early goings as the Stros maintained their two-game lead over Philly, which won at Atlanta. The good guys have won eight of their last nine games.

The big story around Houston is Hurricane Rita. It has slightly dissipated into a Category 4 storm, but still has 150 mph winds and looks like it's headed right for Galveston. Thankfully, many denizens were alerted and evacuated well in advance. The Storm will probably hit shore late Friday, but hopefully few will be inthe area to witness the destruction.

Backe, a Galveston native, didn't seem to be affected. He was awesome right from the get-go. His change-up, which he added in the off-season, was spot on today. He attacked hitters early and never gave in. He located all his pitches well and didn't walk a batter. With his second consecutive quality start, he's really rounding into the playoff form we witnessed last year. We'll need him to make a few postseason starts, too. With a 43-year-old Clemens and a recently repaired left elbow on Pettitte, we can't afford to start those guys on three days' rest.

The offense took another day off, collecting only five hits and five walks. But it was nice to see us win a low-scoring game without one of our big three on the mound.

Looks like Rusch will start tomorrow against Wandy, then Zambrano on Saturday against Clemens. That'll be a great matchup. Zambrano has been lights out in the second half (8-1, 2.36, 1.03). Rusch has not (2-5, 5.75, 1.66). Let's keep it up. The Cubs won't roll over just because they're out of it. I'm predicting a big series for Morgan Ensberg. We're gonna need him this last week and a half.

After losing the first two games of last week's four-game series against the Marlins (and temporarily handing over the Wild Card lead to the Fish), the Stros have won seven of eight games, including tonight's 12-8 win over the Pirates. Florida, meanwhile, has lost six of seven, falling four games behind Houston.

It's essentially a two-team race between us and Philly, which won tonight on a Ryan Howard grand slam in the top of the tenth innning against Atlanta. They're two games back.

So here's what we got: 10 games left: seven against the Cubs, two against the Cards and tomorrow's finale of our four-game series against Pittsburgh. Backe will start against rookie sensation Zach Duke. For our weekend series at Wrigley, the matchups are looking like this:

Friday: Wandy vs. Zambrano
Saturday: Clemens vs. Rusch
Sunday: Pettitte vs. Williams

Luckily, we miss Maddux and Prior. Friday's matchup doesn't look too bright, but check out Wandy's second-half stats: 6-4, 4.10, 1.26! Damn good! Clemens has given up 12 runs in his last three starts... we're gonna need him to be at full strength. And Pettitte really deserves to be in the discussion for Cy Young. He won't win it, but he's been a cut above Clemens for months now. As Ausmus and John Donovan put it, "He's amazing."

After an off day on Monday the 26th, we'll travel to St. Louis for a two-game set. Oswalt and Backe are set to start against the Cardinals, who look like they'll send Marquis and Morris to the mound. Garner probably won't change the rotation, but it might make sense to start Wandy on Wednesday against at St. Louis, then have Backe start at home against the Cubs on Thursday. Wandy will have his full four days of rest, and seems to fare a tad better on the road than at home (5.01 ERA on the road compared with 5.75 at home). Backe, meanwhile, simply can't pitch away from the Juicebox (6.00 ERA on the road compared with 3.41 at home). Also, Backe has won both his starts this year against the Cubs, but has an ERA over 10 against the Cardinals.

It might make more sense, however, to have our big three all pitch in the final series to give us out best chance to make the postseason. I guess everything will depend on how we're looking in the Wild Card race.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have an interesting schedule. They finish their series in Atlanta tomorrow, with Lieber starting against Hudson. Then they head to Cincy for the weekend. Those teams split a four-game series in Philly in May. Finally, the Phils get the Mets at home and the Nats in D.C. next week. The Mets have played spoiler this month against the Marlins, and could do the same against the Phils. Beltran may help us this year after all...

Some interesting second-half stats:

Willy T's and Biggio's OBPs have dropped off significantly. Biggio's (.288) hurts more than Taveras's (.315). In fact, Biggio's second-half stats have been much inferior to Burke's:
Biggio (Post All-Star): .226 / .288 / .387 (.675)
Burke (Post All-Star): .257 / .320 / .449 (.769)

Besides Burke, Lane and Lamb have stepped it up:
Lane (Post All-Star): .296 / .333 / .513 (.846)
Lamb (Post All-Star): .248 / .293 / .455 (.748)

It seems to me that we should be starting Lamb at 1B against righties consistently.

Adam Everett has six walks in 220 second-half at-bats. He sucks. Fortunately, Bradley Ausmus has been a wonderful surprise. Actually, he's been a freakin' godsend. His second half has been remarkable: He's taking walks, hitting doubles, and striking out seldom. After the break he's hitting .296 / .391 / .402, and has brought his total OPS up over .700.

The only hitter on our lineup with better stats away from MMP? Orlando Palmeiro, of course. He's got an .892 OPS on the road, but it's only .651 at home. Weird.

How much better would we be with Jeff Bagwell? Even in this injury-shortened year, his .372 OBP is oodles better than Lamb's .275, Burke's .301 or Scott's .247.

Now then, let's focus on tomorrow's game. It's an early one: 12:35 p.m. EDT. Gotta have it. GO Stros!

Retrospective Sunday Post

Maybe I'll talk about New Orleans for a bit. I grew up in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I went to school there, I made friends there...I learned how to ride a bike there. I actually didn't spend much time in New Orleans - I might have visited 5 times or so in 10 years. I never went to Mardi Gras. I was there for some tennis tournaments and field trips and I drove through a few times. That's it. But it was definitely THE city in Louisiana. The Big Easy. N'Awlins (no one really says that in Louisiana, by the way. It's not New OrLEENS, either. It's just New OrlINS.) And now it's pretty damn near destroyed. Yep, they're going to try and rebuild it. But that might take a little while. Most of the city is underwater, and houses don't do so well with water everywhere. Anyway, I was kinda depressed this week, but take a step back and I don't have so much to be depressed about. I've got family and friends and a house. So maybe I'll do something to help out.

My senior year at college in Nashville some guy named Byron forced me into buying a Ryan Adams CD, "Demolition". I listened to it once or twice, and put it away for later. Little bro Andy steals it, likes it, buys all of his other CD's, and makes me listen to them. And they are DAMN good. Check them out sometime. Andy and I had a chat the other day - Ryan Adams basically puts out as much new music as possible - not all of it is awesome, but the sheer volume of work means that at least some of it will strike a chord with you somewhere. Then there are some other artists that take a couple of years (damn you Radiohead make something new so I can keep worshipping you) to put out new stuff because they want it to be perfect. Which way is better? Well, if you come up with "OK Computer" in your few years (recently named the best CD of the past 25 years by some British magazine), then I'll let it slide. But that Mr. Adams sure is prolific.

Oh yeah, the Astros. Brandon Backe looked good last night and the offense got some timely hits, and we won 7-0. Still a 1/2 game ahead of the Phillies, who scored 10 runs in the 9th to beat the Marlins 10-2. Morgan Ensberg pinch-hit yesterday and beat out an infield single; hopefully he starts today. Oh, and WELCOME BACK, JEFF BAGWELL! His game-winning pinch-hit RBI single on Friday was unbelievable.

But it's Sunday, so it's a football day. Speaking of football: Vanderbilt Commodores. 3 wins. 0 losses. That is all.

Big big win last night. We're now a half-game behind both the Marlins and Phillies (who seemingly haven't lost since we swept them in Philly). Yep, it's close.

It was a nervous game for much of last night, although 7 runs in the 7th and 8th put it away. It's good to see Mike Lamb, Jason Lane, and Adam Everett have solid nights at the plate, instead of the usual Berkman / Ensberg crew.

Andy Pettitte has been unstoppable lately; hopefully he can keep it going tonight.

The injury bug is starting to take its toll. Ensberg has missed the last 8 games, Willy T is hurt, and Chris Burke's injury might be the most serious, and he will likely miss a week or so. That means guys like Orlando Palmeiro, Mike Lamb, and Eric Bruntlett may well see more playing time, and they need to bring it.

No stats today. Need a break from the numbers.

That Dontrelle Willis guy (former Cub! as my roommate BJ would remine me) can play himself some baseball. After a complete game win and a 2 run HR, Willis put the Marlins a half-game ahead of the Astros for the wild card. Somewhat unsurprisingly, our offense struggled for the 3rd game in a row.

Below average offense - its best hitter for much of the year = REALLY bad offense.

Willy Taveras is slumping, Craig Biggio has collapsed in the 2nd half, and no one else is really picking up the slack that Ensberg has left. Gotta find a way to do something, quickly, or the Marlins (whose offense is much more balanced, with Castillo, Conine, Encarnacion and LoDuca having solid years and Cabrera and Delgado leading the way) are going to run away with the Wild Card, for the simple reason that they are the better team.

I'll be watching tonight. Cross your fingers: Beckett vs. Wandy.

Well, seems like I only post once a series these days. Sorry about that. More importantly: Clemens AND Oswalt lose...to the Brewers? Shit. Now we have a MONSTROUS series coming up against the Marlins. How big? Real big.

Current wild-card standings:

Houston, 76-66
Florida, 76-67 (0.5 GB)
Philly, 75-68 (1.5 GB)

Pitching matchups:

Monday: Backe / Willis
Tuesday: Wandy / Beckett
Wednesday: Clemens / Burnett
Thursday: TBD (Pettitte / Vargas?)

Letsa go.

Hope Ensberg is back and healthy. We need him bad. Bats gotta step up. I know it's Willis / Beckett / Burnett, but this could be the season.

Well, that went all right.

All three games against the Phillies were close (4-3, 2-1, 8-6) but we were just a little bit better every time.

The star of the series in my opinion has to be Lance Berkman (3-10, 2 BB, 2 HR, 4 RBI) who is heating up at the right time. But everyone contributed (Pettitte and Oswalt were awesome, Eric Bruntlett stealing 2nd and 3rd, Jason Lane with the RBI single YEAAAH), and Craig Biggio delivered when it counted most in an unbelievable way.

Now we have a 3-game series coming up against the Brewers (Clemens vs. Davis, Pettitte vs. Ohka, Oswalt vs. Helling). Those are really good matchups, and a sweep would be awesome, because after that we have a 4-game series at home against the Marlins, which is without a doubt the biggest series of the year.

Our schedule gets a lot easier from then (Brewers, Pirates, Cubs), so that series is going to be huge. Nevertheless, we shouldn't look ahead. We're playing the Brewers, so let's do it.

Hopefully Morgan Ensberg will be back tonight, because our offense isn't good with him, and it is BAD without him. Well, I guess we did score 8 runs on Wednesday night, but c'mon. I don't want Luke Scott batting 3rd.

After an absolutely insane 6-5 win in the first game against the Cardinals (I'll let Andy tell you about it later, as he saw the whole thing), we scored 3 runs total against Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis, both of whom pitched complete games. Our offensive woes are back again - Craig Biggio is having a rough 2nd half (670 OPS), Ensberg and Berkman never seem to have good days at the same time, Jason Lane is still swinging at everything (.306 OBP), and Adam Everett, Willy Taveras and Brad Ausmus are all playing almost every day (668, 669, 667 OPS's), so we can't expect much more. If Luke Scott gets on a hot streak, that would be nice, as he's a possible source of left-handed power.

Anyway, we start a HUGE 3 game series against the Phillies today.

The matchups for the series:

Pettite vs. Myers
Oswalt vs. Lieber
Backe vs. Padilla

It will help to have Backe back, not because he's been that good this year, but because Zeke and Wandy have both struggled. But we're not going to go anywhere without an offensive resurgence. Let's hope we can get some runs tonight.

Andy Pettite in the 2nd half: 73 IP, 1.60 ERA, 7-2.

Couple big moves by the Astros, both on and off the field. Most importantly, we righted our ship by sweeping the Reds behind spectacular pitching by Wandy, Pettitte and Roy O.

Wandy: 5 IP, 1 ER
Pettitte: 7 IP, 0 ER
Roy: 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 K!

And we actually scored some runs -- 18 of them. Roy remained a perfect 15-0 against the Reds in 19 career appearances against Cincy. He's been complaining of fatigue and dead arm, so it's good to see Garner's going easy on his pitch and inning count. Pettitte says he's "a better pitcher right now than ever before." Since the All-Star break, he has been our best pitcher: 7-2, 1.60 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. And Wandy has been a pleasant surprise. With his tremendous run support, he's definitely keepin us in games.

Off the field, we sent Humberto Quintero and Mike Burns to New Orleans and called up Raul Chavez, Travis Driskill and Charles Gipson. We're basically swapping out our worst hitter and worst pitcher and adding a little speed. Why not?

I still have high hopes for HQ, mostly because of that nickname. I think he's displayed decent pop in the minors, and he just turned 26. (Note: my "high hopes" are realistic... maybe a .700 OPS? I don't see him as an adequate starter anytime soon.) Apparently Raul Chavez is a much better defensive catcher. Or at least our pitchers prefer him behind the plate.

Gipson is a speedster and can pinch-run un the late innings. I don't expect him to get any playing time. Burns wasn't getting it done: nine ER in his last five innings. Driskill is a non-factor: a career 5.29 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He's got mop-up duty.

Now then, we got a huge series against the Cardinals this weekend:

Friday, 8:05 ET: Mark Mulder (15-6, 3.74 ERA) vs. Ezeqiuel Astacio (2-6, 6.03)
Saturday, 7:05 ET: Chris Carpenter (19-4, 2.29) vs. Roger Clemens (11-6, 1.51)
Sunday, 2:05 ET : Jason Marquis (10-13, 4.42) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (9-6, 5.94)

Wow. Saturday's matchup will be phenomenal. Unfortunately, Mulder went 10 innings last time we saw him. Hopefully we'll do better this time around.

Do you think Roger Clemens has any second thoughts about postponing retirement?

Clemens needs to learn how to hit home runs. 'CAUSE NOBODY ELSE ON THE TEAM CAN SCORE ANY RUNS. Honestly, it's not funny any more. I don't know if our hitters think they can just take the day off when Clemens pitchest, but this is just getting out of control.

The Stros lost 1-0 to the Dodgers today, their fourth loss on the six-game road trip and their 14th loss in their last 23 games. This is not good.

Clemens went six innings, allowing four baserunners, lowering his ERA to 1.51. He is far and away the best pitcher in the majors, yet somehow the Astros are now 13-14 in his 27 starts. Is that even possible? Is this the Twilight Zone or something? I used to feel confident for Clemens' starts. Now I cringe.

This was a sad game to watch. The Astros got seven hits (three more than the Dodgers), took no walks and struck out 10 times -- all by Jeff Weaver. Granted, our lineup consisted of Palmeiro, Lamb, Vizcaino and Bruntlett today, but that's not an excuse.

Ensberg needs to end his skid. He has three hits in his last 39 ABs. Dierker notcied that he's kicking his right leg out from under him when he swings -- as if he's trying to hit the ball harder than normal.

Luckily the Marlins and Mets both lost today, so we stay even with both of them. The Phillies play later tonight against the now-god-awful D-backs.

An interesting turn of events in the seventh inning: Biggio came up in to pinch hit and got hit by the pitch. Weaver's fastball was well inside, and Biggio turned away from it. The pitch hit him on the elbow, and Biggio started trotting toward first base. Them umpire Doug Eddings furiously called him back to the plate, claiming he didn't try to avoid the pitch. Biggio later flew out to right and got ejected by yelling at Eddings oin his way back to the dugout. Garner, trying to fire up his anemic offense, also got tossed.

This call was bogus. Biggio definitely made enough of an effort to be considered "avoiding the pitch." Yes, he could have avoided the pitch altogether, but Biggio's a smart ballplayer, and any smart ballplayer will take a pitch off the arm to get on base (especially in the late innings). Disirregardless, the rule doesn't say you have to do everything in your power to avoid getting hit. It says you have to make an effort to get out of the way, which Biggio did.

But this episode is not the major issue here. The major issue is our horrendous offense, especially on the road. We're hitting a collective .239 / .303 / .374 on the road. That is AWFUL.

We don't have a particularly easy schedule the rest of the way. We have five games left against the Cardinals, six against the Cubs, four against the Marlins and three against the Phillies. And thirteen against the rest of our division. Those are must-win games.

Day off Monday. Time to regroup and find our groove. Gotta bring it.

It's Andy Pettitte (11-9, 2.67) vs. Derek Lowe (8-12, 4.20) tonight as the Astros start a 3-games series with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are coming apart at the seams - Milton Bradley and Jeff Kent don't like each other (big surprise), they've been hit hard by injuries (J.D. Drew, Eric Gagne, Jose Valentin, Bradley for a while), and their bullpen has been awful. But their starting pitching is still decent - the Astros will face D. Lowe, prospect Edwin Jackson, and underrated Jeff Weaver in this series (we miss Odalis Perez and Brad Penny).

I don't have any more comments except that we need to win, and win often.

Uh oh:

Brad Ausmus wants to return.

Ugh, ugh, ugh. I'd be the first to admit that Ausmus has been better than I expected this year. In fact, he has a .348 OBP! But he also has a grand total of 14 extra base hits all year, is 36 years old, isn't as good defensively as he used to be, and....well, he's Brad Ausmus. The Astros don't have the offense they once did, and if this is true:

When Purpura begins building next year's team, power from the catcher position won't be a priority...The Jason Variteks of the world are few and far between, and Purpura would gladly take a cerebral catcher over one that hits in the middle of the order.

Crap crap crap. Another year of Ausmus? Say it ain't so.

Jake Peavy outdueled Roger Clemens last night in a 2-0 win. Clemens gave up both of the runs, the most runs he'd given up in a road start all year. Read that last sentence again. Clemens gave up both runs to Brian Giles (on a RBI single in the 1st and a solo HR in the 8th), one of the players I'd like to see the Astros pursue the offseason.

You can see his career numbers here if you'd like, but I'll give you the important ones:

Brian Giles, OF, 34, Bats:L, Throws: L

OPS+ the last few years:

2002: 173
2003: 146
2004: 128

Looks like a bad trend, huh? Not so fast. Giles is playing half his games in the best pitching park in baseball, which drags his offense down. For example, this year he's hitting only .256 / .379 / .404 (which would still be a huge upgrade at LF for us), but a monstrous .327 / .456 / .562 on the road, with 34 extra base hits and 55 walks! That's big time. He's also above-average defensively in either OF corner (he played CF for the Pirates for a year or two), hits lefties well enough to avoid being platooned (career 809 OPS vs. LHP, 1011 OPS vs. RHP), and has a career 925 OPS at Minute Maid Park. What's not to like?

Well, he is going to be 34 next year. That's why, if we do sign Giles, I hope it's a 3-year contract at most, preferably a 2-year deal (maybe 2 /18 or 3 / 24?). We don't have any high-level OF prospects, Chris Burke cannot hit enough to be a major-league left fielder, and Adam Dunn won't be a free agent for a few more years. This signing assumes Lance Berkman moves to 1B permanently, because I don't see how Jeff Bagwell can ever throw well enough to be a 1B again. Pinch-hitter? Maybe. Turning the 3-6-3 double play? I can't see it. Giles also gives us another power lefty bat, which we need to help out Berkman. All our other power hitters (Biggio, Ensberg, Lane) are right-handed. I've heard Giles would like to sign with ATL to play with his brother Marcus, but the Braves have a ton of young OF's that are getting playing time, and they may not be willing to show Giles the money. Playing in Houston would at least put him a little closer to Atlanta.

I'd also like the Astros to try and trade for Braves catcher Johnny Estrada. Estrada had a career year last year, putting up a .314 / .378 / .450 line in his first major league season (including an insane .351 / .407 / .498 line away from Turner Field). Estrada will be 29 by the start of the '06 season, but he doesn't have much wear and tear (only 332 games in his career), and he won't be arbitration-eligible for another 3 years, which means he'll come relatively cheap. So why would the Braves trade him? Well, Estrada's been hurt some this year, and his back-up, excellent prospect Brian McCann, has been awesome, putting up an 800 OPS in his first exposure to major-league pitching. The Braves don't need Estrada. Who could we trade for him? Well, that's kind of Purpura's job, but some combination of Brooks Conrad / Taylor Bucholz / Wandy Rodriguez might do the trick. Hopefully we don't have to give up Fernando Nieve.

Anyway, Estrada is a switch-hitter but he doesn't hit lefties that well, which means he and Quintero could form an excellent catcher platoon. Catcher is a position where you don't necessarily want a guy getting 90% of the at-bats; it's simply too hard on the body. In Estrada's 2004, for example, he faded badly in September and October (603 and 667 OPS, respectively). A 70% Estrada / 30% Quintero platoon would be sweet.

Finally, I think the Astros really need a solid 3rd / 4th starter behind Oswalt / Pettitte (I have no idea what Roger Clemens will do - obviously he can still pitch at a very high level, but he's earned the right to do whatever he wants) who can give them 200 innings of around a 4.00 - 4.50 ERA and isn't much of an injury risk. My recommendation? Paul Byrd. Yep, that Paul Byrd. He's put up 3.90, 3.94, and 3.92 ERA's the last 3 years in almost 6o0 innings; he doesn't walk many guys (79 over that span), and he's been pretty healthy the last few years. Like Giles, he has the downside of being 35 years old when the '06 season begins. But he's been solid, and we could probably get him for 2 years / 10 million or so. Unlike Giles, there are similar players also available (the entire list of FA's is here), such as Kevin Millwood, Esteban Loaiza, or Brett Tomko, but I think Byrd is the best value.

Finally, for the 3rd straight year, Craig Biggio has slowed down in the 2nd half (this year he had an 847 OPS in the first half, 686 since). It is simply unreasonable for a 39 year old 2nd baseman with almost 10,000 career AB's to be great all year. HE NEEDS MORE DAYS OFF. Luckily, our top prospect Chris Burke, plays 2B, so start him there more often!! At least once a week (when grounball pitcher Andy Pettitte starts, ideally), if not more.

And that's about it actually. Giles, Estrada, and Paul Byrd. A motley crew, huh? That makes our lineup next year

Taveras
Biggio / Burke
Berkman
Ensberg
Giles
Lane
Estrada
Everett
P

That's not too bad at all. I like the 2/3/4/5/6/7 right-lefty balance. I wanted to see if there was a better SS available, since Everett is having a rough year, but only Furcal or Nomar would be a big upgrade. I say we stick with him one more year.

Our rotation would be something like

Oswalt
Pettitte
Byrd
Backe
Astacio

which isn't nearly as good as this past year's, but you could reasonably expect ERA's of 3.00, 3.50, 4.00, 4.50, and 5.00 from that group, which would keep up in games.

A bullpen of

Lidge
Wheeler
Qualls
Burns
Harville / Springer (yuck)
Wandy Rodriguez / Gallo

is solid, too.

Well, that's about it. I know it's early to already be talking about the offseason when we're in the thick of a playoff race, but I like looking ahead.

After a 6-7 homestand against the Cubs and Brew Crew, we fell out of the Wild Card lead. But thanks to a 6-2 win over Woody Williams and the Padres, we're back in front of the Phils and Marlins, albeit by a half game.

A couple good things: it's nice to see us win games when our pitchers don't have their A game. Both Pettitte and Oswalt struggled a bit, having to escape jams in multiple innings. We'll say they both brought their B-plus game. It's nice to see we can win when our pitchers give up a few runs.

It's also nice to see us scoring runs when either Ensberg or Berkman doesn't contribute (Ensberg didn't play in Sunday's 8-3 win over the Brewers). Burke has brought it lately. He went 3-for-4 with a three-run homer and two doubles in that win. He's slugging .529 in 51 August at-bats. Willy T has been tearing it up lately. He has a pair of hits in his last three games, and his August line -- .337 / .382 / .361 -- is very good for a leadoff man.

And it's nice to see Berkman finally regain some power. He hit only his 13th homer yesterday and brought his OPS back over .900 with a pair of doubles.

Bagwell's been taking batting practice, and apparently feels comfortable with his swing. But I wonder if he can possibly play first while lacking the ability to throw a baseball. I guess it can't hurt us that bad...

Dierker reported during the game yesterday that Backe's coming back and Wandy's heading to the bullpen. It was a hard choice to make between Wandy and Zeke (After all, Wandy's won EIGHT GAMES!), but both JAck and I think it was the right decision. Their stats are very comparable:

Wandy: 90.2 IP, 5.96 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 62 Ks, 42 BBs, 101 hits, 16 homers
Zeke: 58.0 IP, 6.21 ERA, 1.59, 50 Ks, 19 BBs, 73 hits, 19 homers

In short, Wandy walks too many but Zeke gives up too many hits, particularly homers. Wandy has been more consistent, pitching further into the game. But Zeke has gone out and shut down teams on a number of occasions. He's got better potential for the here and now. Plus it is nice to have another lefty in the pen.

Biggio is awesome at home, with a .942 OPS. Burke, meanwhile, has a better OPS on the road (.691), which makes you realize how bad Biggio has been away from the Juicebox.

Jack has some ideas for the offseason. They involve Brian Giles and Johnny Estrada.

Incredible matchup tonight: Clemens vs. Peavy. Lots of Ks. If the over/under is 20, I'm taking the over.

It's now how you play the game, it's if you win or lose

I went to the Astros game last night with my best friend and the folks. Mom 'n Dad had tickets to the Commodore Club box seats (they both went to Vanderbilt and have contributed to the university...or something along those lines), and JT and I had excellent seats about 10 rows back in right field. We were pretty close to either Jason Lane or Geoff Jenkins (whom JT repeatedly said that he hates. Not dislikes...HATES. I think due to years of Jenkins getting hurt on JT's fantasy team.) at all times.

So we get to the game, get to our seats, it's not that crowded, the weather's nice (after the sun stops shining directly into our eyes)...life's good. And then our offense changes all that. Well, we had some chances. Biggio singled and Berkman walked in the 1st, but Ensberg lined into a DP to end it. Lane led off the 2nd with a double, but Everett (who has looked awful. AWFUL.), Burke, and Ausmus do nothing. Then Doug Davis kinda dominated for a bit (he ended with 8 K's). But Zeke Astacio was matching him. It was the first time I'd seen Astacio pitch live, and I was fairly impressed. He has good life on his pitches, and he throws strikes. The occasional downside to throwing strikes is good major league hitters can often hit strikes. Astacio gave up some hard hit balls, but thanks to 5 K's in the first 3 innings he managed to stay out of trouble. But a leadoff double by Corey Hart and a single by Overbay gave the Brewers a 1-0 lead. This lead was starting to look insurmountable...until the bottom of the 7th.

Oh, at this point JT and I had switched seats with the padres and were up in the box seats. Har to beat free chicken tenders and beer. We got a few funny looks but I'm a Vandy grad and JT was my 'cousin' for the day so we weren't too worried. Anyway, in the 7th - two quick outs on Lane and Everett. Then Chris Burke lines a single to LF. Ausmus coaxes a walk. ("That's bad, Davis. BAD." -JT) Yost comes out and brings in K. Davis. (I don't know his first name.) Jose Vizcaino pinch-hits. Yes, he's my nemesis, and yes, I despise him, but he's a singles hitter who doesn't strike out too often. Maybe he'll get lucky. He fouls off a few pitches. The place is ROCKING. It's loud. Then Viz hits a hard ground ball....up the middle! Burke scores!! So it's 1-1. Taveras comes up. Ausmus made it to the 3rd on the single...and scores on a wild pitch on the first pitch of the at-bat! YEAH! 2-1, Stros. Taveras lunges at a few pitches (JT and I both noticed his disturbing tendency to flail at pitches. It's hard enough to hit major league pitches if you're not falling forward. Taveras also has a really long swing for a guy that gets no power whatsoever. He's only 23 and this is his first season in the majors, but he needs to work on a few things.) but manages to walk. Biggio up, 1st and 3rd, 2 øut. I tell JT that Biggio absolutely has to take a few pitches, because Davis can't throw strikes. Biggio hits a slow ground ball to the right side of the pitcher's mound, and as Davis comes over and looks to throw to Overbay, Biggio kind of puts his arms up and the throw hits him the left hand! Viz scores! 3-1, Stros. Ned Yost comes out and argues for a bit, and I don't blame him. Biggio said after the game he was trying to avoid being tagged by Overbay, but I don't buy it. It was a cheap move, but we'll take it. Berkman comes up and lines out to CF on the hardest hit ball all inning (well, maybe Burke's single). Then in the bottom of the 8th, Ensberg works a walk, and Jason Lane jumps on a high fastball which he hits just above the yellow line in left-center. 2 run bomb! 5-1, Stros. Springer, Gallo, and Wheeler combine for 3 scoreless innings, and Mike Burns comes in in the 9th...and gives up a massive 2 run HR to mighty Damian Miller. Oops. Then it's Lidge time - game over. 5-3, Astros.

I basically found out my class schedule for Fall 2005. I'm teaching two Intro to Statistics courses (sweet), and taking three classes (two Stat, one Math). My MWF days are really busy (8 am - 3pm), but I have nothing on TR except a class that I teach at 5:30 pm. I'm trying to figure out what to do on TR morning (and early afternoons). Possible options:

Tennis
Disc golf
Poker
Run
Study

Probably some combination of all five. It's looking like it should be a good semester. I start on Monday.

Feast or famine (usually famine)

Our offense goes crazy in the first game of the series against the Cubs, scoring 12 runs, and then we score a combined 3 runs for Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt. Greg Maddux and Carlos Zambrano are good pitchers, but we must do better.

Richard Justice has simple advice for Phil Garner: Play Jason Lane every day. Rock on, brother.

Lance Berkman has some bewildering comments in the paper:

"I think it's pretty obvious we're going to go the way of our starting pitching...When you're facing a guy like Zambrano or Maddux, I mean our guy is going to have to throw either two runs or less...We really need our starting pitching to step up."

Um, Lance? SCREW YOU. The starting pitching has carried this team for months. Oswalt + Clemens + Pettitte have been dominant. You, on the other hand, blew out your knee, missed a month and a half, and haven't hit for much power this year: a career-low .478 SLG%, only 36 extra-base hits in 322 AB's, including a whopping .265 SLG% in August. How about you freakin' step up, Lance?

Phil Garner in today's paper:

"This is our calm before the storm. I see it now...We're building our steam. We're ready to boil."

I really wish Garner would occasionally speak literally instead of using metaphors. Who, exactly, is 'ready to boil'? Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman are slumping. Morgan Ensberg can't carry the offense by himself. Mike Lamb has been hitting like a backup catcher this year. Adam Everett is well below a .700 OPS. But wait...Garner can 'see it now'. Ooookay.

Roy Oswalt gives a sneak peek on how frustrating it can be to be an Astros starting pitcher this year:

"Right now if you give up two runs you feel like you're fighting uphill for the rest of the game. The rest of the game there's not a lot of margin for mistakes."

I was at the Pettitte-Maddux game two nights ago. It was a great atmosphere; almost a sellout, and fans for both teams were vocal. The most exciting moment of the game was Willy T's leadoff triple (man, he is FAST). Unfortunately that was it for the excitement. I still love going to the games, though. There's just something extra.

I watched "A Beautiful Mind" for the first time in 4 years last night. What a great movie. It boils down to the human mind's ability (its need, really) to find patterns in EVERYTHING, something I can identify with. We need to see trends, patterns, data, numbers. There's always a pattern, right? Well, sometimes there is, but often there isn't. But we certainly like there to be patterns. Recognizing chance or luck or randomness isn't nearly as satisfying. Sometimes, however, you have to force yourself to NOT look too closely at something. To accept the fact that there is no pattern. It's hard to do, believe me - I'm studying statistics! But I think most statisticians would agree that the human mind sees TOO MANY PATTERNS.

Well, crap.

Getting shutout in 2 straight games at home against the Pirates sucks. This reminds me of the beginning of the year. Our lineup yesterday included Chris Burke, Eric Bruntlett, Jose Vizcaino, Adam Everett, and Brad Ausmus. That's all that needs to be said.

Some late information:

Astros LF/2B Chris Burke was not part of a proposed deal that would have brought Mariners lefthanders Jamie Moyer and Ron Villone to Houston. The Mariners' package likely would have included RH reliever Chad Harville, RH starter Ezequiel Astacio and at least one other prospect, but Moyer nixed the trade by invoking his no-trade rights. . . .

Wow. Harville, Astacio, and one other prospect for Moyer and Villone? Unless the other prospect was Hunter Pence or Brooks Conrad, that sounds like a great deal for the 'Stros, even if Moyer and Villone are both rentals. Harville can't throw strikes and Astacio only gives up home runs. Ok, that's a little unfair, but at the moment both look unlikely to even be average major leaguers, and plugging in Moyer and Villone to a rotation that includes two rookies with ERA's around 6 would have been real nice. Can't fault Moyer for rejecting the trade, though - he's 43, and his family likes Seattle.

Also, Roger Clemens wins Game 7 of the World Series against the A's this fall, and it's offseason time, one guy I hope we go after is Bengie Molina. Yes, that Bengie Molina. (Assuming we can't land Ramon Hernandez.) He's a free agent, and yeah, he's 31, but he rips on lefties, is solid defensively, and blocks a lot of balls that might get past other catchers because he's wide. Yep, he's your big boy. Ideally I would play him against LHP and sign another lefty catcher cheap to play against most RHP's. Catcher seems like a good position to platoon as much as possible, anyway. Maybe someone like Mark Johnson of the A's?

I'm flying home to Houston tonight, and I should be going to the Andy Pettitte - Greg Maddux matchup tomorrow. That's a heck of a game; we need to start winning a lot from here on out. And we need some offense. If Garner goes with Taveras / Biggio / Berkman / Ensberg / Lane / Palmeiro / Everett / Ausmus for the rest of the year, I'll take it. Every time I see Burke, Bruntlett, or Lamb, it makes me cringe.

Glendon Rusch vs. Wandy Rodriguez tonight at 8:05.

Some of the Astros' numbers against Rusch:

Lance Berkman, 5-25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 715 OPS
Craig Biggio, 9-40, 1 3B, 4 BB, 586 OPS
Brad Ausmus, 6-27, 1 2B, 2 HR (!), 731 OPS
Morgan Ensberg, 9-22, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1000 OPS
Adam Everett, 2-13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 385 OPS (ouch)
Jason Lane, 4-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 946 OPS (please let him start)

Let's go 'Stros!

Tough 6-5 loss for the Astros last night. The Nationals jumped on Zeke Astacio for 4 HR's in 5 innings (Zeke's Achilles heel so far has been the long ball - 16 in 46 innings!), but we fought back from a 6-1 deficit thanks to 2 Morgan Ensberg HR's (he now has 31 on the year!) and a Cristian Guzman error. So it's 6-5 going into the bottom of the 7th. Ensberg leads off with a single but he's stranded when Mike Lamb grounds into a double play. Jason Lane pinch-hits with 2 outs and 0 on in the 8th and triples, then Taveras walks, but Biggio pops out. Berkman draws a leadoff walk in the 9th but Ensberg K's and Mike Lamb grounds into another double play to end the game. GAH!

Wandy Rodriguez vs. Livan Hernandez today. We need more offense. Hopefully Jason Lane will get some playing time because he's been killing the ball.

Wow, there are some great baseball series going on right now.

Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ugh)

The A's are the hottest team in baseball - they finally got their offense going and Harden, Zito, and Haren rivals the Astros' front 3. The Angels are falling fast. The teams are currently tied for 1st in the AL West and Wild Card at 64-47

White Sox vs. Yankees

Even after losing to the Yankees yesterday the White Sox are still 72-38. That's good. The Yankees are 3.5 games back of the A's / Angels for the Wild Card, so they need to win.

Astros vs. Nationals

Astros are 2 games up on the Nationals in the NL Wild Card race. The Nats have been terrible since the All Star Break.

Guess I'll be watching a lot of baseball tonight.

I just got off my 3rd and final river trip of the summer - it rained almost every afternoon, which was actually really nice. It cooled down the camps and it was pretty cool to see random waterfalls coming down from the sides of the rim.

Anyway, I'm back for good, and it looks like the Astros have been plugging along. We're 2 games up in the Wild Card standings, and we have a huge series at home against the Nationals starting today. The matchups would appear to favor Washington: Rodriguez vs. Patterson, Astacio vs. Hernandez, and Pettitte vs. Drese. The offense is going to need to find a way to score some runs.

I haven't seen much baseball lately, so I can't comment much on it, but I'll be watching this series. Updates to follow.

P.S. Should we try and pick up Jose Cruz Jr.? I would probably pick him up and send Burke to AAA. Then our OF would be Lane - Taveras - Cruz, with Palmeiro and Bruntlett as reserves, and just stick Berkman at 1B for good. Lamb can get some AB's somewhere.

Well, we didn't trade for Adam Dunn. Or Jose Cruz, Jr. Or J.C. Romero. I expected as much. Purpura said Saturday that the odds of a trade happening were "50-50", so apparently he was talking with a lot of clubs.

And we lost to the Mets to snap our seven-game winning streak. Funny thing is, we actually scored more runs than we did in four of our last five wins! Oswalt was not his usual dominant self... his fastball was only clocking 92 or 93, not its usual 95 mph. He gave up a lot of hits and worked his way out of some jams, but only went six innings giving up three runs. In doing so, he snapped his streak of decisions. Wheeler finally gave up some runs in the latter innings, and Springer and Harville showed why they're... Springer and Harville.

But it's cool. We finally get a day off, then the Stros head out here to Zona to face a decent Diamondbacks team. The Snakes "climbed" into a first-place tie with the horrendous San Diego Padres after demolishing the Cubs 13-6 yesterday. So they might be pumped and ready to swing hard. Fortunately, we got a rested and healthy Rocket to shut 'em down.

I'm not sold on Garner's use of our 1B-LF-RF platoons. It makes sense considering the kind of guys we have (that is, four guys who are mediocre at best), but I'd almost rather him pick his starters to show confidence in them. First, I would absolutely make Lane the starting RF again. He's 11-for-27 in his last seven games and ended July to the tune of .317 / .356 / .512 for a .868 OPS for the month. He can hit righties fine... in fact, better than he can hit lefties. The man's got a .790 OPS for the season, although it's a little skewed in the wrong direction. But compare this to Lamb's .651 OPS or Burke's disgusting .606.

We might as well send Burke back down to AAA. Things will only get worse before they get better. As far as Lamb goes, it's hard to buy the "I'm making good contact, I'm just getting unlucky" excuse. Not for this long. For being such a liability in the field, it's hard to justify his .259 OBP. Yes, he's hit some pretty important hits for us lately, but the man's gotta pick it up.

Palmeiro, by the way, is still producing like a maniac. He's leading the team with a .326 batting average and he's got a .882 OPS for the season. If he can play center, I'd like to see him spell Taveras once in a while rather that Bruntlett.

As crappy as Ausmus has been lately, he's haing his best season (in terms of OBP) since he was a Tiger in 2000. Unfortunately, Everett's having his worst year as an Astro. Sure, he'll set his career highs for homers and stolen bases, but could you get on base more than three times out of 10?

Taveras had four walks in June and July. Berkman had 34.

Enough ranting. This team can produce runs. At least enough to win with our mind-bloggling pitching. Speaking of which, Backe gets off the DL on Aug. 9. Much fuss has been made over who will remain in the rotation. They've both pitched well lately, and Wandy has a better ERA and WHIP. He does walk more batters however. I say we see how they do in their next two starts. Either way, I like them both better than Chad Harville.

Ezequiel Astacio vs. Pedro Martinez? No problem, says Brad Ausmus. I'll just push a run across with a little suicide squeeze, then end the game with yet another walk-off hit. And he even thought enough to take off his helmet before getting mobbed by his mates.

Something's going on here, folks. Something's in the air. A little magic. I mean, if Brad "Mr. 300 -- Slugging" Ausmus can win a game practically by himself, we just can't do wrong.

In fact, Jack and I worry about Nationals Syndrome. That is, thinking we're better than we are because we're playing better than we are. Make no mistake: I think we have a great team and we're playing out of our minds. But look at our recent wins. Very much like the Washington Nationals back in June. And look what's happened to them. The point? With the trade deadline looming, we ought to make some moves to ensure we keep up this torrid hot streak. Not necessarily drastic, but enough to get things going. After a lousy offseason, Purpura needs to show he can make a move when it counts.

So, I offer my last-minute trade thoughts (Caution: they may differ from Jack's). If I were Purpura (and one time I actually came down with a disease called Immune Thrombocytopenic purpura, so I guess I'm close...), here's what I would do:

Trade Burke for J.C. Romero. Some would say this is tomfoolery. They might be right, since Burke might turn out to be a Marcus Giles-type. Of course, he might turn out to be a Luis Rivas-type, too. One thing's for sure, he ain't Chase Utley. That guy's good. The fact of the matter is, Biggio is still a very productive player at 2B. I want him to play next year, and as long as it takes for him to get 3,000 hits. I'm sure every decent Astro fan will agree with me. Burke has talent, but we aren't getting the most out of him since we aren't starting him everyday at second base. We ought to trade him, not just for his benefit, but for the team's. If we make no other trades, this one will increase PT for Lane, Lamb and the incredible Orlando Palmeiro. Romero is a very good lefty reliever. A great ERA but he's walked a few too many batters to be considered elite. I'd keep Gallo as well (who, by the way, now has a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP) to have two good lefties in the pen. (Harville goes to AAA to work on throwing a new pitch. It's called a strike.)

Get Adam Dunn, whatever it takes. Yes, Cincy is asking for a lot. And yes, we could probably get him as a free agent after the 2006 season. But I want him NOW. And we need him--now. Even if we need to give up a lot. Young power hitters seem to be going by the wayside. Besides Cabrera, Pujols, Teixeira and Blalock, how many young sluggers are out there? Not too many. Dunn has a .967 OPS, fifth in the NL (tied with A-Ram and one point ahead of MoBerg). The more I read about the trade market, the more I believe sellers will have to crack in the next 48 hours. The Reds may hold onto Dunn if the find a buyer for Junior (the Yanks?), but I think they will be forced to lower their demands by Saturday. Backe's injury might hurt things, since he's the "proven major leaguer" the Reds have said they need. Backe's got good stuff, but it misses too often. If he finds some control, I bet he has the potential to become a Brad Penny kind of pitcher. But more than likely he'll stay a fourth starter throughout his career. At least he can bat, right? I would trade Backe, Lane and a prospect other than Zeke (Buchholz? Nieve?) for Dunn.

Next, acquire Jose Cruz Jr. I know what you're thinking. And no, I'm not high. I'm not sure if Cruz is on waivers a la Danny Graves or Corey Patterson, but we ought to get him somehow. If we do have to trade for him, I'm sure it wouldn't take much. I mean, the D-Backs freakin' demoted him even though he gets on base 34.7% of the time. That's just about as good as their two big pickups last offseason, Shawn Green (.351) and Troy Glaus (.353). I'm sure he'd love to play for his daddy, and it would be nice for him to play for a team that appreciates him. He's got the right field all to himself. Plus... another switch hitter!

Finally, I'd tell Everett to stop trying to hit homers. Let the big boys take care of that. Stop swinging for the fences and take a lesson from Taveras: Get on base however you can (but good job hitting that bomb off Pedro today).

So, here's who we got on our Championship team:

CF Taveras (.691)
2B Biggio (.836)
LF Berkman (.945)
3B Ensberg (.966)
1B Dunn (.967)
RF Cruz Jr. (.783)
SS Everett (.658)
C Ausmus (.637)

Bench: Lamb, Palmeiro, Bruntlett, Vizcaino, Quintero

Staff: Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte, Wandy, Zeke, Burns, Springer, Gallo, Romero, Qualls, Wheeler, Lidge

Suddenly this team looks a lot better. The two rookies at the end of the rotation scare me, but both are improving. Romero-Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge is domination. This lineup would get the job done. I hate to lose Burke, Backe and Lane, but you can't get attached to players who -- let's face it -- aren't that great. Besides, something tells me Dunn, Romero and Cruz are a touch better.

Now then, some notes I picked up on Rotoworld.com: Clemens' back is bothering him, but he pitched through the pain on Wednesday. "I was fortunate," he said. "Every time I went out for the warmups, it was stiff. But it came around and I got better."

Backe's injury doesn't seem like it's too dangerous. "It's a little aggravating," Backe said. "I'll certainly be back in a couple of weeks. I just hope it's back to 100 percent instead of 90 percent." Me too. And while you're in the hospital bed, look at your numbers. Hope your walk total doesn't give you a heart attack. Anyway it'll be nice to see what Zeke can do while our hitters are putting up crooked numbers.

Finally, I think I may have another contender for next year's catcher: Robert Fick. He seems to have matured, both mentally and physically, from the "bad boy" of the Tigers and Braves. Chek out this year's stats in 112 ABs: .295/.360/.420 for a .780 OPS. That's good. It's tad higher than his career .755 OPS, but he's just over 30 and seems to have found his swing again this year. Plus it looks like Ramon Hernandez wants to stay in San Diego, and I'm sure they want him there.

Next up:

Friday: Wandy vs. Benson
Saturday: Pettitte vs. Glavine
Sunday: Oswalt vs. Ishii

C'mon Wandy!

Mike Lamb!

Tied at 1-1, Lamb crushed Ryan Madson's second pitch in the bottom of the ninth inning into the upper deck in right field, giving the Stros a 2-1 win and Oswalt his 14th victory.

The dude has been going crazy: four homers in his last six games. The announcers keep talking about how he's swinging the bat well, he's just getting unlucky with where the ball ends up. I believe it. His stats look terrible (in fact, in his last six games, his only hits have been those four home runs). Still, he's looked decent at the plate lately and I have faith he'll pick up his numbers. Maybe not to last year's stats (.288/.356/.511 !!!), but somewhere in the .750 OPS range.

Tonight he started against righty Jon Lieber, but didn't get a hit until the ninth. He's been starting a lot lately, and it's looking more and more like Garner is going with tandems. That is, he'll start Palmeiro and Lamb OR Burke and Lane depending on the pitcher. Not a bad idea, since Lamb and Palmeiro both crush righties. (A weird split: Lane cannot hit lefties. He's hitting .192 off them! Just more proof that he's actually a left-handed batter)

Word is we're still trying for a Dunn deal (pardon the pun), but it's gonna be a tough compromise for both teams. Backe, Lane, Astacio and Nieve is way too much. I don't see why they would want Lane and I don't really want to give him up. I'd hate to see Backe go -- two rookies filling out our rotation scares me. But something like Backe - Burke - Nieve sounds about right.

If the trade talks fall through I hope ol' Scrap Iron keeps starting Lamb at first. Burke has been playing very well lately, but still appears in over his head. A .630 OPS is not gonna get it done in left field.

Houston 7, Philadelphia 1
Astros record: 52-47

Andy Pettitte continues his July domination, giving up 1 ER in 7 IP. For the month, he gave up 4 ER in 32 IP. Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman each had 2 HR's, and Jason Lane added another. Pretty sweet win. It's a great matchup tonight - Roy Oswalt vs. Jon Lieber.

I just finished reading Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Pretty good, with a cliffhanger ending. If you've read it and want to know more, check out this link. (Warning: major spoilers!)

It hailed this morning in Flagstaff. You don't normally expect hail at 10 am on a July morning, but that's monsoon season for you.

More disc golf and tennis today. Go 'Stros!

The Astros take 3 of 4 from a slumping Washington Nationals team. We're really looking good at the moment. Andy and I watched every pitch from yesterday's 14 inning 4-1 win, capped by Eric Bruntlett's 3 run HR. Our pitching staff is pretty good right now: Qualls, Wheeler, Springer, and Lidge combined to pitch 7 IP in relief, allowing 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, and striking out 9. Oh, and Wandy Rodriguez looked tough, putting up a 7 IP / 3 H / 1 BB / 1 ER / 4 K line. Next up: the Phillies @ Minute Maid, who are a half-game in front of us in the wild-card race. The pitching matchups:

Pettitte vs. Lidle
Oswalt vs. Lieber
Clemens vs. Padilla

Wow! I'll be watching.

I'm back from a river trip, and it's good to see the Astros are still doing well. We haven't made any big Adam Dunn-sized moves yet (though I still believe we'll trade for another bat), and yet we're 49-46 thanks to dominant starting pitching and Lance Berkman, who is now at .314 / .419 / .500 after a slow start to the season.

As of right now, the National League wildcard race looks like this:

Atlanta 54-42
Washington 54-42
Houston 49-46 (4.5 GB)
New York 49-46
Philadelphia 49-47 (5.0 GB)
Chicago 48-47 (5.5 GB)
Florida 47-46 (5.5 GB)

Those NL East teams are sure to beat up on each other quite a bit, but the Braves just got Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, and Chipper Jones back, so they look to be the ones to beat.

Supposedly the Reds are now asking for a package of Backe / Lane / Astacio / Nieve for Dunn, to which I say NO. I think Adam Dunn is the premier young power hitter in the game, but even I can't justify giving up that much for him. I stand by my proposed trade of Burke / Astacio / Bucholz for Dunn.

Mike Burns appears to have adjusted to the major leagues (3.94 ERA in 16.0 IP, and only 1 ER in his last 10 IP). It's good to see a minor-league lifer get a chance and do well.

Phil Garner says he plans to play Orlando Palmeiro and Mike Lamb more, meaning less playing time for Chris Burke and Jason Lane. It seems like a bit of over-managing to me. You can say that you're playing Palmeiro more often because he's playing well and you expect to him to keep it up, and you can say you're playing Lamb more because he's NOT playing well and you expect him to break out of his slump, but you can't have it both ways all the time.

Four-game sweep at Pittsburgh rights the boat. And we didn't even need Oswalt and Clemens. Zeek and Wandy both pitched well in Tuesday's doubleheader and our offense came alive in all four games, outscoring the Bucs 34-8 in the series. Not bad. Let's keep it up against the struggling Natties.

Peter Gammons reports the Reds are no longer looking to trade Dunn or Kearns. I hope we keep going after him, but we need to make a decision quickly: are we actually contending this year or not? If we are, we ought to trade for another bat. If we ain't, we need to hold onto our prospects (Zeek, Burke, Lane, Nieve) for the next two to three years. Remember, we can always trade for Dunn next year or simply wait to sign him after the 2006 season.

What is going on with Orlando Palmeiro? I knew he was hitting well, but this is ridiculous! He's hitting .312-.372-.505! That's 166 points higher than his career OPS. He's seeing the ball real well.

And Pettitte! He hasn't given up more than ONE RUN in each of his last six starts! His ERA is well under 3.00 and he no longer has a losing record (7-7). Go Stros!

After a fantastic finish to the first half -- sweeping the Dodgers and Padres -- the AStros climbed back to one game over .500 for the first time in a long, long time. I swear we were 15-30 like two weeks ago. No mas.

Unfortunately, we had to stop in St. Louis this weekend and the results so far have been agonizing. Friday night's game was the best game of baseball I've seen in a long time. (Well, the best since I went to Wrigley for the Cubs-Pirates game that afternoon -- Jerry Hairston hit a grand slam off the fat of the foul pole -- it was sweet!) Check it out. I roll into Piece, home oif Chicago's best pizza, about 9 p.m. Stros are down 2-1 and Izzy is coming in. Game over, right? No. Palmeiro (who is having a fine year as our fourth OF, and probably should be startng over Burke) slashes a double to right. Ausmus bunts him over. Lamb up, two quick strikes. High and outside pitch from Issy and Lamb pokes it over to left field just deep enough for the run to score. Textbook.

Thirteenth inning: Lamb up again with two on, two out. Bloops a single that scores a run. Game over, right? Well, Russ Springer agaisnt the heart of the Cards lineup doesn't sound too safe. Springer walks Eckstein but gets two quick strikes on Edmonds. At 2-2, Springer throw an inside breaking ball that Edmonds chases and whiffs. One down! At this point, I almost want to walk Pujols. Larry Walker's hitting cleanup, amybe he can bounce into the GIDP. Garner elects to bring in Chad Harville who's throwing heat, 97 mph. Pujols fouls a few back, then pops up to left. Except the ball keeps going deeper and deeper.

I thought there was something suspicious when Pujols dropped his bat and started walking to first. I didn;t know why Garner wanted to bring in a flame-thrower to face Pujols, the guy crushes fastballs. But when Harville dropped his head I knew something was awry...

Taveras and -- I think it was Berkman in left now -- converge near the dugout in left-center. Their eyes are glued on the ball and Berkman's yelling at TAveras to take it. Taveras takes a few small steps towards the wall and leaps up and over. He twists his wrist back and tries to backhand the ball with his left hand. And I swear if I didn't see the ball hit his glove and disappear for a split second. Then the ball dropped into the bullpen for the walkoff home run.

I was crushed. But what a game. Tonight I couldn't watch the game. I was busy playing beach ultimate all day. Which rocked. But apparently Oswalt gave up 4 runs (three on a Walker homer). Marquis pitched eight, serving up a two-run Ensberg blast in the first (Is it too soon to start taking him for granted?). But that was it. Ensberg also hit into a costly double play with two on and one out. We only managed six hits and never really threatened.

Clemens goes tomorrow against -- gulp! -- Chris Carpenter, the NL All-Star Game starter. MIght go another 13 innings, this time scoreless.

I made a long post about the Adam Dunn rumors, and Blogger decided to screw me yet again. Here's the gist of it:

Adam Dunn is a very, very valuable property, just had a 956 OPS, 108 walks, and 46 HR's last year AT AGE 24, and his most similar player (according to baseball-reference) is Reggie Jackson. I also think that based on his stated desire to play in Houston we should be able to sign him to a long-term deal. A team built around Berkman / Oswalt / Dunn / Lidge / Ensberg and filled in with cheap, young, role players could be an excellent one.

Who should we be willing to trade? Well, in order of guys I'd least like to trade:

1) Ezequiel Astacio - his trade value is quite low right now, and hidden behind his ugly ERA so far in the majors is an excellent BB / K ratio. Plenty of pitchers struggle in their first exposure to the big league.
2) Fernando Nieve - He's young, and has excellent minor league numbers.
3) Chris Burke - I don't think this is a great fit with the Reds, but I wouldn't mind trading Burke to get Dunn if that's what it takes. Burke is still not hitting much and there is simply no space for him to play here. He is not a left fielder.
4) Jason Lane - I was a big Jason Lane fan coming into the year, but we're 83 games in and he still is'nt drawing walks and has a sub-.300 OBP. Good power, but not Dunn-like. Oh, and he's 29 years old. Not a youngster.
5) Taylor Bucholz - his 6-0 record at AAA is misleading - his rate stats are ugly.

So I guess my ideal trade would be Burke, Lane, and Bucholz for Dunn. Keep Dunn in LF (where he's been above-average for his career), move Berkman to RF (where he's also been above-average), and find a 1B (Self, Lamb, trade for Aubrey Huff, Ryan Howard, etc.).

My main point is that as good as Dunn is, we shouldn't trade ALL our pitching prospects to get him. Just most of them, if we have to, because 25 year-olds with the potential to put up 8 years of 1000-OPS seasons in a row are fairly rare.