Astros all over the news lately. Spring training is in full swing, with a few positive signs. The WBC is also under way, with Japan and Korea advancing from Pool A. Those two will join the top two teams from America's pool (with Mexico, Canada and South Africa). Notable Astros playing: Lidge and Wheeler (USA), Carlos Hernandez (Venezuela), Taveras (Dominican), Gallo (Italy).

Berkman and Pettitte were on SportsCenter's The Weekend show on Sunday and were interviewed by Linda Cohn. Pettitte didn't have much to say about Clemens' possible return, but said that the team shouldn't bank on having him back — that we need to prepare to play the season with or without him. Berkman was a little critical of the WBC, suggesting it should occur every four years during the middle of the season, a la Olympic hockey. Not a bad suggestion; the U.S. needs as much help as it can get.

Spring training snippets

Friday: Houston 11, Cleveland 5. Bagwell actually led off at DH and scored a pair of runs. Chris Burke hit a triple and started at short, but didn't have to make any plays there. Lane went crazy with a homer and three RBI. Raul Chavez went 3-for-3 , Bruntlett drove in four, and Luke Scott started in center.
On the mound, Taylor Buchholz was brilliant, allowing one hit in two innings. Fernando Nieve got lit up for four runs on four hits and a walk in his two innings, though he struck out three. Jason Hirsh allowed one run on three hits in two.

Saturday: Atlanta 10, Houston 6. Ensberg homered and Preston Wilson went 2-for-2, beating out an infield single and lining a double down the left-field line. "We have a chance to be a really good ballclub," he said. "Hopefully, I'll help the team enough to get us to that next level." Biggio got a pair of hits leading off, and Bagwell went 1-for-3 at DH again. Burke played a couple more innings at short again, and Luke Scott hit a triple while playing center.
Oswalt started and threw 19 pitches in two innings — 15 for strikes. He gave up two hits with a strikeout, throwing only fastballs and curves. "It was nothing major," he said. "I'm staying with basic stuff until I get it going." He said he'll put off work on a changeup and slider until later in the spring. Last year, he tinkered with a split-fingered fastball, then realized his primary pitches had suffered. "I worked on that more than I worked on the basic stuff, so I lost the feel for the first few games of the season," he said.
Wandy and Qualls both got lit up for four runs, but Trever Miller looked sharp.

Sunday: Dominican Republic 12, Houston 8. Here was the lineup for the Dominican: Soriano, Tejada, Pujols, Ortiz, Alou, Beltre, Peña (Willy Mo), Encarnacion, Castillo. Them's good. We started Biggio, Bagwell (DH), Berkman, Ensberg, Wilson, Burke (SS), Palmeiro, Ausmus and Scott. Zeke started and gave up two runs on three hits and four walks. Sparks, Sampson, Muecke and Gutierrez didn't do much better. The big news: Burke committed a fielding error at shortstop and (I think) didn't convert another possible out, though it wasn't scored an error. He did, however, stroke a two-run double in the 5th. Willy Taveras pinch ran for DR (a role that he's perfect for) and scored in the 6th. But somehow he grounded into a double play in the 7th! And apparently Juan Gutierrez pitched the top of the ninth for the ASstros, changed uniforms mid-inning and threw the bottom of the inning for the Dominican! That's awesome.

Split squad: Philly 4, Houston 3. Wow. We actually lost to the Phillies. Good thing it doesn't matter. Not much here: Everett, Lane, Bruntlett and Quintero were the only major leaguers who played. We let a bunch of rookies pitch, and they all did pretty well: Borkowski, Paulino, Albers, Gothreauz and Estrada gave up only one run through 8 innings before Peguero gave up four in 1 1/3. Oh well.

Next up: Washington Monday, NY Mets on Tuesday, Toronto on Wednesday, Mets again Thursday, Washington again Friday. Bagwell should get some time in the field soon enough.

The Astros played their 1st spring training game today, losing 5-2 to the Indians. Craig Biggio and Eric Munson had RBI singles and Steve Sparks gave up all 5 runs (4 earned). Lots of players got a few at-bats; according to Phil Garner, Jeff Bagwell will DH in Friday's game.

I'm heading down to Tucson for an ultimate frisbee tournament tomorrow. Maybe Andy can write a post or two about the next few Astros ST games? Ah, baseball.

I think it's time for an Aaron Gleeman-inspired Link-O-Rama:

I think it's hilarious that Roger Clemens gave up a first-pitch HR to his son Koby and followed that up with a high-and-inside fastball the next time they faced off. Good job, Rocket.

I had forgotten what a tough year Adam Everett had last year - and it had nothing to do with baseball. Here's wishing him the best for this coming year. And maybe an occasional walk or two.

Nice chat with Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus here - he tabs Roy Oswalt as one of the ten most valuable commodities in baseball. I hope he's an Astro for a long time.

The Hardball Times doesn't like our offseason, ranking us 26th out of 30 teams in this list.

My Dad's in town for a few days to check out a house that they somehow bought without ever seeing it in person! This is very unlike my parents. Maybe they're becoming risk takers in their old age.

As major league baseball players everywhere start reporting to camp, I'm starting my fantasy baseball research for this year. I'd be the first one to admit that the categories in fantasy baseball (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters, W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K for pitchers) don't correlate very well to real-life success, but I can adapt. Plus there's money and trash-talking involved.

Here's what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine has to say about the 2006 Astros:

"By standing pat over the winter, the NL champs have weakened themselves. Houston needed a combined 675 innings from their top 3 starters at a 2.43 ERA to win the wildcard. Roger Clemens claims he's not returning...If the Big Three can't repeat, another starter has to step up...Brandon Backe is not recommended...The back end of the rotation only needs to reach the sixth inning because of Houston's excellent bullpen. Minute Maid Park makes any righty hitter a good bet...Craig Biggio looks like he's had it, as evidenced by his age and his .235 - 7 - 20 line away from home...Don't expect Jason Lane or Willy Taveras to get much better."

Well, I may be pessimistic, but I have to agree with most of their comments. We certainly haven't gotten better this offseason - even if Clemens returns, the Big Three can't be as good as last year and we're still looking at Taveras, Everett, and Ausmus in the lineup. If everything breaks right for us we could still be right there in the hunt, but that could be a big if. An injury to Berkman or Ensberg or Oswalt or Pettitte spells doom, and we need Jason Lane, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ezequiel Astacio to be solid all year. Don't get me wrong, I'll root like hell for this team, and watch as many games as I can, but it will be an uphill climb. Then again, that seems to be our preference these last few years.

I was supposed to fly down to Baton Rouge for a reunion with some old friends this weekend. I got about 30 miles from Flagstaff (I was flying out of Phoenix) when my front left tire blew out and took a hefty chunk of my front left fender (directly above the tire) with it. I called AAA, and they said it wasn't safe to drive - too much exposed wiring. I had to get towed back to Flagstaff. I called the folks to see if there were any later flights, but nothing worked out well and I still would have had to figure out a way to get back to Flagstaff at midnight on Sunday night. On the bright side, it's been time for me to get a new-ish car for a while now - no more putting it off.

It's a beautiful day outside (up to 55/60 degrees in Flagstaff these days), so off I go.

Andy's latest post was #450 at The Juice Box. Huzzah! I am also thrilled that baseball is back, and I'm pumped to start reading spring training updates, preparing for my fantasy baseball draft, and start posting every single day (or more) again. It has been an interesting offseason for our family - it looks like my parents will be moving out to join me in Flagstaff, which I'm sure they'll enjoy. It will be nice having them around, especially because their house has an indoor hot tub.

I will indeed have a big decision in May. I will graduate from NAU with a Master's Degree in Statistics, and don't plan on starting a PhD program anytime soon, so it looks like I'll have to find a real job. Or will I? At the moment my most likely next step would be to get a job as an instructor in the math & statistics department here. I've enjoyed teaching, it's an excellent department, I can keep doing a few river trips in the summer, I stay in Flagstaff, I get summers off....the list goes on. It makes a lot of sense. Maybe too much sense? Another option would be to try and find a job as a baseball statistician. I've been really lazy with this, and I haven't sent out any resumes lately. I have a feeling that as much as I like writing about and reading about baseball statistics, I might not like working in that field nearly as much. Maybe it's just my imagination? The third main option would be some kind of service to the country. Peace Corps / Teach for America / etc. - something in that vein. I'd like to give something back although I don't agree with a few current political situations. And the dark horse would be to take a year off and travel around the world, writing updates on my blog and having a great time. The sensible answer would be to do that later since I just did that 2 years ago, but the romantic in me says that once I start a real job it won't be so easy to get away. All right, that's enough about that. We'll see what happens.

I was going to write about what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine said about the Astros and their top players, but I left it at home. Oops. Next post coming soon.

Pitchers & Catchers!

Baseball's back! Finally! It's been a cold and miserable weekend in Houston, but my heart is aglow with baseball fever. Oh, what joy I felt when I saw Roy, Brad, Andy and Brandon in Astro uniforms again! It really was a surreal moment knowing that the next eight months will be filled with our great national pasttime.

It has been a weird offseason, both for the Astros and the Wade family. The team didn't do a whole heck of a lot, making their customary conservative and modest — if not downright boring — moves like adding Trever Miller and re-signing Brad Ausmus. We took a gamble not offering Clemens arbitration, but I truly think he's only seriously considering two clubs: the Astros or the AARP. Our most productive move was the addition of Preston Wilson. He immediately improves our lineup ad our bench, but his presence alone won't solve our offensive woes.

In the Wade family, things were a little more shaken up. Jack will have a big decision coming up after graduating this Spring. The parents will be joining him after buying a house in Flagstaff this week. Andy, meanwhile, will be the lone Texas representative come summer after taking a job with a newspaper in Bryan.

But back to our favorite ball club. In the Chronicle and on local television coverage, all the pitchers and catchers mentioned the short offseason, referring to the extra month of baseball they played in the playoffs.

Chad Qualls: "It came too quick. This is the shortest offseason I've ever had. … I might actually need these six weeks to get back into shape a little bit."

Mike Gallo: "It feels like I just got done playing about a month ago."

What are these guys talking about? To me, it feels like years since the World Series ended. I've been waiting months for Spring Training, and it'll probably feel like another few months 'til the season actually starts.

Pettitte specifically mentioned the absence of his partner in crime: "For the last seven years we've been sidekicks. There's no doubt I miss him being down here, for sure." Many players, coaches and regular folks around Houston appear confident Clemens will return in May, but it's anything but a sure thing. He says he won't know until after the WBC if he's going to play, so we'll just have to wait it out...

A few hilarious tidbits from Kissimmee:

• Garner received a gift from a friend in Russia: a bulava, which is a war club with a sharp points on the head (think Final Fantasy). "It's a symbol of power," Garner said. "I'm going to use this on reporters and players." (Sometimes I think Richard Justice could use a little macing…)

• Garner also didn't recognize Russ Springer when he walked into the manager's office. "Wheels? Did you lose some weight?" Garner asked, referring to Dan Wheeler. Apparently Garner's old anf confused and sometimes mixes up those two. Hope that never happends during close games.

Chris Burke was the first position player to roll into camp. Of of our hitters, I think Burke has the most to prove. Right now, he's our No. 1 option off the bench if anyone gets hurt. He's doesn't have a starting job this year (or even a platoon position), so he's got to earn every at-bat he gets. Burke has been asked to play shortstop on occasion this spring in addition to second base and the outfield.

The Chronicle had a nice piece on Lidge's mentality heading into 2006. He's saying all the right things and really doesn't seem upset on his disappointing postseason. Unlike everyone else, he's more focused on the upcoming season than the finished one.

Lastly, I'll list some random personal thoughts about Spring Training and the season as a whole:

• Don't simply ignore the elephant in the room that is Bagwell's shoulder. He should be examined and cleared to participate before every workout. He's a great player but also a very large investment, and we need to make sure he's taken care of. And if he's unable to participate, an ultimatum has to be reached.

• The back of the rotation should be open to everyone. In my mind, neither Wandy nor Zeke pitched well enough last year to earn "frontrunner" status entering 2006. Give Hernandez, Hirsh and Nieve equal opportunities to prove themselves.

• Let Preston Wilson play some centerfield. I know he'd be a disaster in The Juicebox, what with all the nooks and crannies. But If Bagwell can play, Taveras should under no circumstances take at-bats away from Lane or Wilson.

• See what the younguns can do. Luke Scott played like a bat out of hell in Venezuela. If he keeps it up, how can we leave him off our roster?

• Backe finally has pressure on him. Right now, he's our third starter, which means he needs to be a) good and b) reliable. Everyone knows he can pitch great games, but he has yet to pitch well throughout a whole season. It's about time he chanelled his playoff energy into every start. If he can't, he might not have a chance to make another great postseason start.

• Lastly, Ausmus and Everett better recognize that we almost replaced them this winter, and for good reason: They can't hit. I am sick to death of the "defense-minded" cop-out. It's fine if Ausmus doesn't hit for much power, but he needs to contribute at the plate by having good at-bats, taking pitches, making contact and driving the ball. He did this last year, but can he keep it up? And I wish Everett would finally get it through his head that we don't want him hitting home runs. We need him to get on base, and that means not trying to pull the ball all the time. Hell, take a bunting lesson from Willy. Get. On. Base.

I just finished watching the NBA All-Star Game. It was cool being in Houston and all, but the actual game was preposterous. I think Shaq dunked a ball in the fourth quarter and hung on the rim until his team came back to his end of the court. Admittedly, the game meant absolutetly nothing. Also admittedly, basketball is something of a showboat sport, at least more so than baseball. Players often hang on rims and pump up the crowd with various antics. This never happens in baseball. The closest thing I can think of is Barry Bonds lifting up Torii Hunter for robbing him of a home run. But at least that was between innings. In the MLB All-Star game, people watch to see great players play baseball, and it's often a great game. In the NBA All-Star game, many people watch to see a great game, but at least as many watch to see who's going to bring down the house with a huge dunk or a stylish lay-up. This isn't necessarily a bad thing — I don't think it takes away from the game either way — but the NBA ASG seems like more of a laugher than anything else. At least in baseball, they play for home-field advantage, but I don't think this would change a whole lot in the NBA. Oh well...

Spring Training!

Is anyone excited about the World Baseball Classic? Does anyone care? I'm not losing any sleep over it, but fan interest seems to be virtually nonexistent. At least in the States. But what's more disgraceful is that players don't want to represent America. I keep seeing guys pull out of the WBC because they want to be ready for Spring Training. They signed a big contract, and they want to honor it. They want to make sure they're completely healthy. What a load of crap. I can understand pitchers who've undergone surgery, but come on! Grow a pair. I think starting pitchers will only throw three or four games anyway. As for the hitters, there's no excuse not to get out there and play your heart out for your country. That's what all the other countries are going to do.

What's really going to bug me is when we lose to Belize or Ecuador or the one-man team that is The Netherlands, everyone will get all pissed off about it. Of course we're going to lose. But only when we do will people whine about not playing. This could be the best baseball gig in decades, but the players are making it the worst.

Meanwhile, the Astros still face a rotation conundrum. As in, who starts after Oswalt, Pettitte and Backe. We got Wandy and Zeke, our (Ha!) experienced pitchers; Hirsh and Buchholz, our true rookies; and Carlos Hernandez, our ace-in-the-hole finally back from injury. We ought to give Carlos as much of a chance as everyone else. I'm sure we will. I've heard he's back up to the low-90s on his fastball. This guy was pretty good way back when in '02 and '03. It's taken him a lot longer than normal to recover, but he might be the guy that steps up and performs.

Andy and I met up for some fun in the sun in Las Vegas this past weekend. We were there to play ultimate for Northwestern, despite the fact that neither of us currently go to that fine university. It was a great time; we played 4 of the top 10 teams in the country and played them close, including a sweet JWade-to-AWade connection for a score against #1 Wisconsin. I, of course, take all the credit. I also won a mighty $8 at poker - watch out, world. Oh, and no strip clubs, sadly. But In-N-Out Burger? You're goddamn right.

Not too much to talk about regarding the Astros. Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days! Holy crap. I better start doing my fantasy baseball research (JT's already started). Lance Berkman says he doesn't care if he plays OF or 1B, which is good, 'cause we might not know for a few weeks yet. Phil Garner says Wandy and Zeke are the favorites for the #4 and #5 spots but Jason Hirsh, Carlos Hernandez and Fernando Nieve will be looked at (good), and he still prefers two lefties in the bullpen (despite teams such as the Angels and...someone else...doing just fine without any lefties). Bagwell is still iffy, Chris Burke should get some AB's at shortstop, and Opening Day can't come soon enough.

The Astros avoided arbitration with Morgan Ensberg, agreeing to a 1 year / 3.5 million dollar deal. This is a good move, obviously - the question is whether we should have tried to sign Ensberg to a longer deal. I'm a huge Ensberg fan - he hit .283 / .388 / .557 with 36 bombs and 85 walks, which is absolutely huge. However, he is already 30 years old, and I believe he doesn't reach free agency until after '08 (edit: it could well be '07, though). I don't think a multi-year deal is necessary at this point. If he puts up another big year or two, then go for it. Of course, it might cost us more then...

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Rocket will return to the Astros on May 1. If so, GREAT! Wandy and Zeke both starting all year...yikes. I like the idea of Wandy and Zeke having a 'tryout' in April and whoever does better becomes the 5th starter at that point, with the other moving to the bullpen. This might just help Clemens stay strong all year - he looked tired in September and October. And he is 43.

Purpura and Garner have finally decided to try playing Chris Burke at SS occasionally. This is awesome. Burke needs playing time wherever he can get it, and it looks like that will be at 2B (where I hope he starts once a week, to pace Biggio) and SS. Management has said that Burke doesn't have the arm for SS, but 1) he played there in college and 2) David Eckstein is still in the majors, isn't he? It's definitely worth a shot, particulary with 654 OPS Adam Everett there otherwise.

I'm heading to Vegas this weekend to watch (and play in) a big college ultimate tournament. Hopefully I won't lose too much money while I'm there - you'd think my statistical background would prevent that. You'd think....

Astros avoid arbitration with Ensberg, who signs for the midpoint at $3.8 million. Huzzah. by the way, he made 500K last year! Should we consider a long-term deal? Not necessarily. The big fella's already 30, and he'll be an Astro for at least three more years. Whether we sign him to a deal that takes him through those years or not doesn't really matter. If Morgan dominates each year, he'll get more money from the organization, which is what I fully expect him to do.

After the boring Super Bowl, I can't stop thinking about baseball. Only four weeks 'til pitchers and catchers! In my spare time at work, I thought I'd talk about a few teams I think might surprise next year. We start in Toronto:

Blue Jays
Rotation: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, Towers
Lineup: Johnson/Catalanotto, Aaron Hill, Wells, Overbay, Glaus, Hillenbrand/Hinske, Molina, Rios, Russ Adams
Bullpen: Ryan, Chulk, Downs, Frasor, Schoeneweis, Speier, Walker

I love it when owners 1) have a plan about their team and 2) are honest with their fans about it. I loved it when the Indians said it was time to rebuild and dumped Thome, Colon, Alomar, and all their stars that led the team in the late '90s. They made smart trades, got a bazillion prospects and, after only three or four years, are back among the AL elites.

The Blue Jays are similar, but opposite. Management finally said the time is right to increase payroll and construct an exciting, competitive team. They couldn't have asked for better timing. The Red Sox and Yankees are on the verge of self-destruction, and the door is open for a run at the AL East.

The Jays' offseason moves were a little, shall we say, over-the-top. Forking over $100 million dollars for two pitchers is a bit Steinbrenner-esque. Nonetheless, management lived up to its promise to sign playmakers, and A.J. and B.J. certainly fit that bill. Now, after waiting for Bengie Molina's price tag to drop a few million dollars, they collected three of the top free agents available.

On the trade market, the Jays were also big players… almost too big. They snagged Overbay from the Brewers and traded the still-young Orlando Hudson to Arizona for a rejuvenated Troy Glaus. For 2006, they're probably better off. But the trades left them with about twenty-two corner infielders. They traded Koskie to the Brew Crew, but they still have Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand and Hinske.

Meanwhile, their middle infield is less than proven. Russ Adams was decent in '05 at shortstop, and would give the team a boost if he repeast last year's .700 OPS. Will LSU grad Aaron Hill assume full-time second-base duties with Hudson's departure? He has upside after a .727-OPS rookie campaign, but is he ready? Wells can be an all-star, but he's been on the decline since 2003. If Alex Rios can live up to his potential and Catalanotta and Reed Johnson don't drop off, the Blue Jays can definitely do some damage.

Last year the Jays' lineup was unbelievably consistent: Every hitter posted an OPS between .700 and .800. With Glaus, Overbay and Molina, the middle of the lineup will be able to score a few more runs.

The rotation is definitely top five in baseball. Burnett may not win 20 games, but he most likely won't implode. Chacin and Towers were great last year, but can they do it again? Lilly posted the worst numbers (5.56, 1.53) since he became a regular starter in 2001, but he might bounce back to league-average. Schoeneweis can make a spot start or two.

If the rotation and the lineup are as stable as last year's and the new additions live up to their billing, the Jays are money. In either case, management has set the team up for an exciting run in '06.

Cubbies
Rotation: Prior, Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch, Williams, (Wood?, Wade Miller?)
Lineup: Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Perez/Cedeño
Bullpen: Eyre, Howry, Ohman, Williamson, Wuertz, Dempster

Yea, I know… they're the Cubs. They've had great teams on paper since 2002, but it really seems like they just don't want to win. Or maybe they don't know how. Still, with guys like Prior, Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez, it's hard to count them out.

Much like the Blue Jays, they overpaid a couple of pitchers. Unfortunately for them, Eyre and Howry might only combine for 150 innings. Still, those two are pretty good. When all is said and done, it's really not about the money, it's about the talent. Dempster was better than expected last year, but he's no elite closer.

I don't think even the Cubs realize how good their rotation can be. Prior and Zambrano are amazing pitchers. Rusch and Williams aren't spectacular but are capable of 4.00 ERAs. Greg Maddux is slipping, but he is Greg Maddux. Obviously, Kerry Wood isn't going to pitch 200 innings anytime soon. Probably not even 100. But as soon as Dusty stops screwing around with his arm, he can be effective out of the pen.

The Cubs actually traded prospects to the Marlins so that they could pay Juan Pierre $6 million for one year. That's not a terrific idea. Of course, Corey Patterson wasn't about to be good again. Not at Wrigley anyway. And after Rafael Furcal went to La-la land, the Cubs needed to move fast to acquire a leadoff man. As long as Dusty keeps Neifi Perez as far away from the top of the order as possible, Lee and Ramirez will actually have runs to drive in.

It's hard to say what the Cubs' outfield will do in 2006. Murton was fantastic in his limited time last year, but it may have been a fluke. Everyone knows Jacque Jones can't hit lefties, but will Dusty use him accordingly? Chicago doesn't really have a good platoon partner for him yet, although Murton would seem to be a perfect fit. Maybe they'll make another move, such as signing Richard Hidalgo.

The middle infield is also up in the air. I'm a big fan of Todd Walker. He's posted an .820 OPS in his two years with the club, but no one in the organization seems to care. Dusty might even sub him out for Jerry Hairston, a mistake. At shortstop, the Cubs are in trouble. Ronny Cedeño is a decent prospect, but he probably isn't ready to be a regular shortstop.

Michael Barrett is awesome. I know, I know… we're supposed to hate him because of the Oswalt thing. But how many catchers in the NL can put up an .800 OPS consistently? Maybe I'm just jealous since we got Ausmus and all.

It's going to take a lot for the Cubs for make the playoffs in 2006. They have the personnel to do it, but can they all keep it together? After all, they are the Cubs.

Rangers
Rotation: Millwood, Eaton, Padilla, … … … John Wasdin … … um … … Kameron Loe?
Lineup: Young, Wilkerson, Teixeira, Blalock, Mench, Nevin, Barajas, Delluci/Nix, DeRosa
Bullpen: Otsuka, Cordero … … … Leicester … … … R.A. Dickey … … … Benoit … … and that's about it.

It only took five years for the Rangers to step up and sign a decent pitcher. Orel Herscheiser can only do so much. Kevin Millwood probably won't lead the AL in ERA again, but he will bring stabilization to a pitching staff that desperately needed it. Eaton and Padilla are capable of being winners, even though Chris Young would have been the better option. I honestly don't know much about the back of the rotation starters. I remember hearing Loe's name a couple of times last yearm but I doubt he'll be a ROTY candidate. They just need a couple of guys who can step up consistently and hopefully keep the game in single digits. Now, if they go out and sign Jeff Weaver, the rotation will be set. (They desperately need Clemens, but I won't even comment on that possibility).

Michael Young was the best shortstop in the game last year. He's knocked in 190 runs in two years as the Rangers' leadoff man. For any other team, Soriano would be hard to replace. The Rangers might actually be better off without him. DeRosa's nothing special, but Soriano wasn't a top-of-the-order guy. Wilkerson or Dellucci will fit better in the #2 spot. We all know what Teixeira can do, but he'll need more balance from the rest of the lineup. Blalock must return to his 2004 form, and Nevin must prove he can still play. If that happens, and Mench doesn't let his all the trade banter go to his head (ha, ha), the Rangers' lineup will once again be among the best in baseball.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the AL West will remind us of last year's NL West. The Angels are considerably worse, and and the Mariners aren't getting a whole lot better. The A's did almost won 90 games last year, but I'm skeptical of Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Dan Johnson and Mark Ellis. The A's actually have a decent rotation and bullpen, which is more than the Rangers can say. All Texas has is Kevin Millwood and Orel Herscheiser.

_____

These three teams could all make the playoffs in October. It's much more likely that none of them does. The Jays have the best chance, but I wouldn't count the Cubs and Rangers out — if nothing else, they could surprise a lot of folks.

Actual headline on yahoo.com: "Poll finds men want Jessica Alba as girlfriend." Wow. What a shocker!

I played some disc golf (for the first time in a few weeks!!) today with fellow stat guy Dustin and Ultimate Frisbee coach Lawrence. On my first drive I felt a stomach muscle twinge, but I fought through the pain to finish at even par (3 birdies, 3 bogies). Lawrence also shot even par: 18 pars! An incredible round. And Dustin had a nice 1 over round - good considering he has no real backhand.

State of the Union address tonight. Gotta go watch.

Check out Will Carroll's perspective on the Jeff Bagwell situation here. I agree with most of his points.

New Year's Fest (a Phoenix-area ultimate frisbee tournament) was a ton of fun this past weekend. I played with the NAU men's team El Ponderoso, and while our overall record wasn't great (1-5), we played some great teams, had an awesome time, and got to watch the Open Men's final between two really really good club teams. And I bought a used Nalgene water bottle for one dollar. YES.

I don't want to talk about the Bagwell saga today - it's too depressing. In some good news, the Astros signed former top catching prospect J.R. House. He's coming off shoulder surgery, but he tore up the minors in the Pirates organization a few years back, and I'll take any catching prospect I can get. I think he and Quintero should be good to go in '08 when Brad Ausmus is done.

I've been playing a lot of Ultimate Frisbee lately. It took me a while to get into it, but Flagstaff is a great town for it (plenty of space, lots of good athletes, kind of quirky) and I live right by the coaches of the NAU men's and women's teams. We've got our first big tournament this weekend in Phoenix. I also have a full house for the first time in a while - 2 girls moved in during the last few weeks. They seem really cool - Nancy is 31, and has been a kindergarten teacher for the last 4 years; Becky is 23, and works full time at The Dollar Tree while going to school. So far, so good.

More Bagwell news: It looks like the Astros are going to try and collect on their 15.6 million dollar insurance policy on Jeff Bagwell. This could get messy - apparently if Bagwell tries to play at all in spring training, we might not be able to collect. And Jeff has said he wants the opportunity to play. I think this could get pretty ugly, which would be a shame. Unfortunately, I believe the Astros are doing the right thing here - I haven't heard anything about Bagwell being able to throw any better, so I don't see how he can field his position. It's a sad state of affairs, but I hope Jeff realizes his time might be up.

In other baseball news, the Indians reportedly will trade Coco Crisp to the Red Sox are Andy Marte and Guillermo Mota (note: there might be more players involved.) Then they'll turn around and trade Arthur Rhodes to the Phillies for Jason Michaels. I understand these trades for all teams involved, but I love them for the Indians. Crisp is a solid player; only 25, put up an .810 OPS last year, solid defensively - but he's replaceable, and Marte is a top 5 prospect, Mota is a solid set-up guy, and Jason Michaels has a career .380 OBP, and should be an upgrade on Crisp. Boston was pretty desperate for a CF, so they need a guy like Crisp. I've heard they'll also sign Alex Gonzalez to play SS, which I don't like. They should just go with a Cora / Pedroia platoon. I'm kinda surprised the Phillies couldn't get more than Rhodes for Jason Michaels. I wonder if the Red Sox would have just considered trading with the Phillies (Mota for Michaels?) - then they keep Marte.

Good job, Indians. Check out this list of young, cheap, good players: Hafner, Martinez, Peralta, Sizemore, Marte, Cliff Lee, Sabathia, and some good bullpen arms. Now that's a young team to build around.

After agreeing to contracts with Everett, Lidge and Wheeler this week, Ensberg's our only remaining arbiration case. From what I've heard, the numbers aren't too far off: Ensberg wants $4.2 million, $800K more than the Astros' offer.

Ensberg's already 30, but won't be a FA until after the 2008 season. A long-term deal would be nice: avoiding arbitration for the next three years if nothing else. At this point, I think we'd have to give him $18-$20 million for a three-year deal, which is right around what he'd make in arbitration if he keeps hitting well. Hopefully Mo has turned a corner in his career, and we'll be abe to count on a .900 OPS for the next couple years.

The whole arbitration system is really funky. It rewards playing time over good performance, so players who suck but have been in the majors a while will end up getting more money than better players with little experience. This is clearly a benefit to teams that draft well. Oakland's strategy has been to continually bring in younger and cheaper players while letting their more expensive veterans hit paydirt with other teams. If you always have decent replacements waiting in the wings, why risk a blockbuster deal with a guy who might get injured or just start to suck? I bet Beane's kicking himself for the Chavez deal a couple years ago.

The Astros are on the other end of the spectrum. We tend to wait several years to call up good hitters. Ensberg and Lane were both ready for the majors years before they finally got their starting jobs. By the time those players are ready to test free agencym they'll be pretty old. Ensberg will be 33 after 2008, when he'll be a FA. Lane will also be 33 when he's a FA after 2009. If they continue to dominate, they'll cost teams gobs of money for what probably will be the decline of their careers. Problem is, that team could be us. We tend to "stick to our guns" and "reward our veterans" all the time, and I can see us doing this with these players. Of course, if they dominate in those years, I'll be happy. And this so-called "problem" won't really affect us for several years.

Back to the present: I really wonder if the Astros have any more plans in the mix. The FA list is running thin; only a handful of players even perk my interest: Durazo, Ward, Chris Stynes, Jose Hernandez, Wade Miller, Astacio, Fogg, Weaver, Kevin Brown, Ismael Valdez, Halama, Quantrill, Fox, Mecir, Urbina. Hard to believe there are still well over 100 FAs out there, nearly all of whom will sign with teams.

Like many others, I don't like the prospect of having Backe-Wandy-Zeke at the end of our rotation. I can already foresee a bunch of three-game sweeps going the wrong way. Zeke and Wandy have potential, but that doesn't always translate to actual performace, which is all that really matters. Zeke (5.67, 1.54) and Wandy (5.53, 1.46) were far from good last year. They're young (Wandy just celebrated his 27th birthday on Jan. 18; Zeke will turn 27 in November), but in no way are they solid, reliable pitchers yet.

Aside from Boras' Jeff Weaver, the remaining FA starters are either old, injury-prone or just plain bad. Still, there's some talent left in the pool, and we almost need to sign someone. Valdez and Halama are journeymen who can put up mediocre numbers (4.50 to 5.00 ERA, 1.40 to 1.50 WHIP) and eat innings. Kevin Brown's back may be broken, but he'd make a worthwhile risk if the price is right.

On the position player front, I think we're pretty much set. If we enter Spring Training with our current roster, it looks like Scott and Quintero would start the year at Round Rock. Bruntlett, who's not a very good hitter, seems to be a lock for the utility-man role.

Bagwell's shoulder is still a mystery, but there's no way he won't be on our Opening Day roster. If he says he can play first base, how about playing him there only three or four days a week? Give him an entire day off between starts. That way, Taveras still gets plenty of playing time. Or, take Bagwell out of the game at the seventh inning. Get Taveras in there for his defense and you rest Bagwell for a while.

OK, dinner time.

Go read this Baseball Prospectus article now - it's free, and it's about the Astros. They've done some neat things with analyzing not only which baseball parks are good for hitters and which parks are good for pitchers but separating that out into if parks that are good for hitters are especially good for right-handed hitters or lefties and the same for pitchers. They've found (as you would expect) that The Juice Box is incredibly good for righty hitters (check out Ensberg and Biggio's home / away splits sometime) but average for lefty hitters.

This makes the Preston Wilson signing even better, and it makes Jeff Weaver an interesting option - he dominates righties, but struggles against lefties. Read the article for more.

Arbitration Time

The Astros agreed to a bunch of deals with arbitration-eligible players today:

Adam Everett - Astros agreed to terms with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year, $1.9 million contract.

I don't think much of Adam Everett, but this is a fairly cheap one-year deal, and we have no better options at SS unless we trade for one or we decide Chris Burke can play SS after all.


Brad Lidge - Astros agreed to terms with RHP Brad Lidge on a one-year, $3.975 million contract.

This is a sweet deal. Lidge has been unstoppable the last three years, and while he is an injury risk, his strikeout rate is unstoppable and he's still fairly young.


Dan Wheeler - Astros agreed to terms with RHP Dan Wheeler on a one-year, $930,000 contract. And this is the best contract of all. 930K for a guy that had a 2.21 ERA in 73 innings last year? Damn good!

So all in all, good job, Astros. Now if we can take care of business with Ensberg (a multi-year deal would be sweet), we're looking good.

Astros Notes

1) Well, this is ironic:

"Jeff Bagwell was supposed to have his surgically repaired right shoulder examined by Dr. James Andrews this week, but Andrews suffered a heart attack over the weekend."

There's still plenty of time left before spring training, but at this point it just doesn't seem like we're going to have a healthy Bagwell in '06. No one from the organization is saying positive things, Bagwell has been quiet, we signed a free agent outfielder which would allow Berkman to move to 1B...and when your doctors start having heart attacks, maybe it's just not your year. I'd love to be wrong, but at this point, I don't think Jeff Bagwell will be our starting 1B in 2006.

2) Like Andy, I'm not particularly impressed by Trever Miller either. When one of the best things you can say about a guy is that he's "better than Mike Gallo", look out. I guess Miller isn't terrible (career 4.66 ERA, although he's been better than that the last 3 years - check out his career numbers here). Someone on Astros Daily mentioned: Miller isn't a pure situational lefty, but he's moreso than Gallo... he carries a .724 lefty-on-lefty OPS over the last 3 years, whereas Gallo is at .790. Anyway, here are the contract specifics:

"Trever Miller's $1.3 million option for 2007 will vest if he makes 50 appearances this season
Miller, who is guaranteed $1.3 million in 2006 under the terms of the deal signed yesterday, has made at least 60 appearances each of the last three years, so all he needs to do is stay healthy in order to have the option kick in."

So make that a probable 2 year / 2.6 million dollar deal, which isn't so good. Just to recap, we've now spent 1.7+1.9+2.6+7.5=13.7 million combined on Mike Lamb, Orlando Palmeiro, Brad Ausmus, and Trever Miller, four average-to-below average-players who are all on the wrong side of 30 years old.

Here's what our GM had to say:

"He's a high character type of person, which is obviously something that's very important to us," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said of Miller. "But No. 1 is his ability on the mound. We've been looking for a lefty reliever to come in and help stabilize our bullpen and give us another option in the bullpen on the left side with Mike Gallo. It gives Phil a lot of versatility. I talked to Phil (Sunday) night. He was really pleased to have another lefty on board that can give him the ability to use maybe one lefty earlier in the game and another lefty later in the game. Really, since Phil and I started working together, this has been his goal. His goal is to get two lefties in the bullpen, and I think this accomplishes that. It gives us that versatility."

Ugh. Miller AND Gallo in the same bullpen, when we could have Nieve or Bucholz or some younger guy with potential? I don't care if they're both left-handed; they're both below-average. AND WHY IS CHARACTER SO IMPORTANT TO THE ASTROS?? Expect to see a lot of one-batter-faced outings for Gallo and Miller, a fair amount of which will end up badly for the Astros.

3) We'll end on a happy note:

The National League champion Astros were the team closest to landing Miguel Tejada, FOXSports.com has learned, offering closer Brad Lidge, shortstop Adam Everett and either outfielder Jason Lane or Willy Taveras.

That would have been a great trade, especially if Taveras was the 3rd player. Lidge is a dominant closer, but he is unlikely to stay healthy for much longer, and both Qualls and Wheeler should be able to close. Adam Everett should not be starting in the majors, and Taveras will never have higher trade value. To combine those three into four years of Miguel Tejada, who gives you excellent offense, solid defense, and no injury risk at a premium position, would have been incredible. I'm still hoping we could revisit those trade talks, because Tejada is a stud.

4) One more piece of good news:

The Astros offered a minor-league contract to former Pirates catching prospect J.R. House.

Anytime we try to sign a catching prospect, it's a good thing, but House was an offensive star in the minors (most recently, he put up an 852 OPS in AAA in 2004), and he's still only 26. Check out his career stats in the minors here. He probably wouldn't get much playing time for a few years, but House was one of the Pirates' top prospects, and it appears he's mostly recovered from shoulder surgery. I like this move.

I'm not excited about Trever Miller. Yes, he's a lefty, and yes, he's slightly better than Mike Gallo. But that doesn't make him good. I've heard Purpura bellyachin' about getting a lefty reliever since the week after the World Series, and this is the best he could come up with? Meanwhile, Mike Remlinger and Alan Embree are still available. Plus our short-term financial situation (i.e. signing Rocket in May) is now stretched even thinner. Not an über-bad move, but not great.

I am excited about Preston Wilson. Like Richard Justice wrote in his blog, he's a good player. Don't try to analyze where he'll play and who will lose playing time, just take comfort in the fact that he's a good player who will hit lots of home runs and drive in plenty of runs. We needed that.

Of course, it's up to Jack and me to discuss how this might affect the team in terms of playing time and possible trades. Right now, Luke Scott's the odd man out. With Wilson, Taveras, Lane, Berkman and Palmeiro as our outfielders and Bagwell, Biggio, Everett, Ensberg, Ausmus, Lamb, Burke, Chavez and Bruntlett as our infielders, there's just no room for the big lefty. He could use more time as a regular, even if it is in the minors.

Of course, as with everything in 2006, everything rests on Bagwell's shoulder. If he can't play first base, Berkman moves there, leaving Wilson, Taveras and Lane as our outfielders. Easy.

If Bagwell recovers to the point where he can play first base, Berkman moves back to left field. Lane's name should be etched in stone over in right field, which leaves centerfield as something of a quagmire. Wilson's not known as a great defensive centerfielder (and with the crazy nooks and crannnies of The Juicebox, his lack of speed may kill us), but I'll take his offensive skills over Taveras's in a heartbeat. Remember, despite his decent .291 average, Taveras's .666 OPS was worse than Ausmus's .682 and better only than Everett's .654 mark. While Taveras has tremendous base-stealing skills, defensive ability and speed, the flaws in his game — power — make him replaceable. (He still has potential at 24, but I can't see him putting up anything better than a .300 / .350 / .350 line anytime soon.)

Now then, keeping Taveras as a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-runner would be a great idea. He could pinch-hit when leading off an inning, too. Willy would excel in that role. However, his apparent value might make him attractive to some clubs. I'm sure other teams know his flaws as well as his upsides (including five more years of club control at a cheap cost). Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh all seem like logical trading partners. None has an established centerfielder or leadoff hitter. And all those clubs could provide us with something valuable.

Boston has a plethora of starting pitchers in Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Arroyo, Clement and Wells. I've heard Wells and Arroyo among many trade rumors, and I think either would fit well as our 3rd starter. The Sox are still hoping for Seattle's Jeremy Reed, but we ought to offer Taveras for Arroyo, who doesn't come with Wells' hefty contract.

Pittsburgh has Burnitz, Bay, Wilson and Gerut in the outfield, but I don't think Bay is very well-suited to play centerfield, although I could be wrong about this. That kid is really good. Pittsburgh doesn't have a leadoff man (Jack Wilson probably won't cut it), and I've heard they're taking offers for Wilson. I'd trade Taveras for some young pitching talent like Zach Duke or Oliver Perez. Houston native Kip Wells hasn't been good since '03, but you never know.

The Nationals have Guillen, Church and Byrd, but the latter two would be more effective as platoon partners than starters. They may convince Soriano to move to left field, but that probably won't happen. And unless they plan on batting Soriano first, they will need a leadoff man. (Oh wait, they have Christian Guzman… nevermind). I doubt the Nats will be willing to give up a big name like John Patterson, but wouldn't that be something…

The Angels and Diamondbacks could also fit the bill for a Taveras deal, but they're not as likely. The Angels gave away Finley and cut DaVannon, so their only full-time outfielders are Anderson, Guerrero and Rivera. Figgins could start in center for them, and Taveras and Figgins on the same team would be overkill. Arizona signed Eric Byrnes, who's decent. They also have Counsell leading off, but they might want to upgrade. They won't give up their best prospect, Conor Jackson, but Brad Halsey is a low-walk, low-strikeout lefty who put up decent numbers as a 24-year-old. He's from Houston and went to UT, and could compete for a starting job.

Phew. Of all these deals, I'd pursue the Boston trade. It seems like they're striking out with Reed, and they are running out of options. Pretty soon, Taveras will become very attractive to them.

Again, I'm not saying we must trade Taveras. I think given our outfield situation, Taveras is most expendable and has the highest value right now. Of course, we don't really know about Bagwell's shoulder, but if he can play, we'll have a crowded outfield. Even if we trade Taveras and Bagwell gets hurt, a Scott/Burke/Lamb platoon would be productive, much more so than last year. (Keep in mind Scott and Burke can both play center). Yes, Biggio is losing his on-base skills, but I'd be satisfied with him leading off in 2006.

Astros GM Tim Purpura was on the radio today, and while I couldn't listen, a few other people did, and here's what they said that he said:

So far Purp has said..........1) P Wilson can play all OF positions, which is nice.---In fact just a second ago, Purp mentioned that fans were demanding, "when are we going to get a bat? when are we going to get a bat?"2) If Bagwell and Clemens both play, they could be considered our "big free agent acquisitions"3) Purp said that competition is healthy in Spring Training, and that there will be competition for the 5th starter slot, and possibly the 4th. The obvious----that he believes in player development and did not want to go after a Kevin Millwood type.

Is it even possible for a center fielder to be 'unable' to play a corner outfield position? Good news, I guess. Bagwell cannot be considered a 'big free agent acquisition'. There are simply too many question marks. Clemens can, though, and it might work out to our benefit for him to take a month off - he wore down at the end of last year, and this should allow him to stay healthy and it will give our young guys (Zeke, Wandy, Carlos Hernandez) a chance to compete for that #5 spot.

He also said that the future is bright, because a lot of $$$$$$ will be freed next year to put a team together.

That's true - Pettitte, Bagwell, Oswalt, and Biggio come off the books. We're likely (at least I hope so) to re-sign Oswalt, and we'll have some money to go after a starting pitcher / sign Ensberg to a longer deal / etc. WHY did we have to give Ausmus a two-year deal? Argh.

I'm back from my Texas / Oregon vacation, during which I learned how to ski, got pretty sick, and watched a lot of bowl games. The only real move the Astros made was the Preston Wilson signing. The signing specifics are still kind of confusing, but here's what I understand:

2006 - Preston Wilson makes 4 million.
2007 - The Astros either buy out his contract for 500K or we sign him for '07, '08, and '09 for 24 million dollars total.

It's an interesting deal. You could argue this gives Wilson more incentive to do well this year, since if he dominates we'll have to pay him big bucks for him to stay. However, if he doesn't, it's basically just a 1 year / 4.5 million dollar deal. Compare that to the 1 year / 6.7 million dollar deal Jeromy Burntiz got and I am one happy fan. You can argue that Wilson will have no where to play, but with Bagwell so iffy, the more options you have, the better. Remember our LF platoon of Scott / Burke / Lamb last year? Yuck.

I was looking at Wilson's stats, hoping that he might hit well with runners in scoring position, since he will likely bat after Berkman and Ensberg, our OBP guys. Unfortunately, he doesn't:

Career, bases empty: .269 / .335 / .495
Career, RISP: .250 / .335 / .453

Oh well, it was a nice thought.

We're in a similar situation to where we were last year - it certainly looks like Taveras, Ausmus, and Everett will all start, and combined with the pitcher, that gives us four lineup spots that will likely have an OPS below 700. No matter how good the rest of your lineup is (and ours ain't bad, with Biggio / Berkman / Ensberg / Wilson / Lane), you're going to have a below-average offense with those four spots.

Something to Talk About

Hey, we made a move! The Astros signed Preston Wilson to a 1 year / 4 million dollar deal today, with a CLUB option for a 3 year deal after this year. That's a weird option; I can't see us picking up a 3-year option unless Wilson goes insane.

I'm actually all right with this move. First of all, let's take a look at Wilson's numbers:

Career line - .264 / .333 / .478

Last year - .260 / .325 / .467 (half in Colorado, half in Washington, and he somehow managed to put up near-identical lines)

So basically he's a low-average, low-OBP, high-SLG guy. He'll be 31 years old, so he's not getting any better, but he shouldn't collapse either. Wilson has played most of his career in CF, but he had a knee injury last year, and most sources suggest that he will not be playing CF again anytime soon. He has 67 AB's at Minute Maid Park, and his numbers are pretty sweet: 940 OPS, 9 extra base hits, 7 walks (very small sample size, though).

It's a little misleading to judge Wilson by OPS alone: unfortunately, it overvalues him, because Wilson's OPS is more SLG-heavy than OBP-heavy, and OBP is more important.

It's probably best to compare this signing to similar deals given to comparable players this offseason:

Reggie Sanders - 2 years / 10 million
Jacque Jones - 3 / 16
Jeromy Burnitz - around 1 year / 6
Rondell White - 2 / 8.5

Wilson is younger than Sanders and Burnitz, healthier than White, and...well, I would have rather had Jones, but ours is only a 1-year deal.

I'm going to wait a day or two to put up some more analysis, but for now, I like it. It's hard to analyze this move until we see if it brings about another move (trade Taveras? Lane?) or if it means Bagwell is done. But for now, good job, Purpura.

I can't help but be amused by this quote:

In the press conference Purpura said that Preston Wilson called him and said he wanted to play for Houston. This is a good sign.

and this guy's response:

What this tells me is our GM is waiting for players to call him while he sits around eating donuts.

We signed a bunch of players to minor league deals before Christmas, none of whom should have much of an impact next year:

Steve Sparks is a 40-year-old knuckleballer who hasn't been in the majors in a while. Didn't we learn our lesson with Jared Fernandez?

David Borkowski had a 4.34 ERA in a full season of Triple A last season. Meh.

Eric Munson and Mike Lamb are nearly identical players: lefty hit-or-miss "power" batters.

Kevin Orie had a very good season in Triple A last year (.352/.466/.630 in 349 AB), but probably won't have a spot on the bench.

Danny Klassen, who was with Round Rock last season, batted .319/.375/.532 in 342 AB. I think he can play other infield positions, so he might be an option as our 25th man.

So, two worthless starters and three third basemen. We're gonna need something more, Timmy.

Meanwhile, Brett Tomko signed with the Dodgers for two years and $8.7 million. Yikes. That is a little more than I'm willing to pay for a fifth starter. Yes, he's durable and eats innings, but come one… $8.7 million? I just hope Timmy at least inquired about him.

Jason Johnson was close to signing with the Indians on a one-year deal, but it looks like it's not finalized. If we could snag him for a good price, it's worth it for a one-year deal.

Jeff Weaver's still out there. Not much talk about him, but I'm sure he'll get $40 million from somebody. If Jarrod Washburn gets $37.5 from the Mariners...

We tendered contracts to all our arbitration-eligible players, including Raul Chavez. Everyone else (Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, Wheeler) was a no-brainer. Chavez could have been released, but instead we gave him $400,000. Hey, it's not my money. Humberto Quintero underwent wrist surgery a few days ago, which will keep him out about six weeks. I guess we want Q to spend another year in AAA.

Jack and I said right after the World Series that this team must upgrade offensively at shortop or catcher. With Ausmus sticking around the next two years, we're left with the shortstop question. I wonder if the Orioles would consider trading Tejada for Lane, Lidge and Nieve. They'd get an everyday outfielder with 30-homer potential, a proven closer and a top prospect. We'd get Tejada for $48 million over the next four years, a bargain.

Tejada is definitely one of the most valuable players in the game. He plays terrific defense and is a tremendous middle-of-the-lineup hitter. It would suck to give up Lane and Lidge, but I think it would be worth it. Besides, trading Lane would open up more playing time for Burke and Scott in left field. Lidge is a damn good closer, but with his health risks, we'd be smart to trade him while his value is high. Qualls and Wheeler would have first dibs at the closing vacancy, or we could pursue a free agent, say, Ugueth Urbina to help us out.

No Nomar, which isn't the end of the world.

Surprisingly enough, I don't think there are any free agent hitters I'd like to sign at this point. There are no worthwhile shortstops out there, and that's our only position in need of an offensive upgrade. At this point, I don't think we could improve our Opening Day lineup of: Taveras, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Bagwell, Lane, Everett, Ausmus. I don't think it's necessary to sign a 1B/LF type hitter, because he wouldn't come close to playing full-time. Even if Bagwell gets hurt, someone between Scott, Burke and Lamb is bound to have a decent year as a back-up. Plus, Purpura can always make a midseason trade for Dunn, Lugo, Huff etc. And at that point, we'll have more of an idea where Bagwell's shoulder is.

On the other hand, Purpura needs to be looking at free agent starters. There are plenty of decent pitchers out there, and that's all we'd need — someone decent. Someone like Brett Tomko or Jason Johnson, who is at least established as someone you can count on for six innings and a sub-5.00 ERA. Hopefully. With Only Oswalt, Pettitte and Backe (and probably Zeke) penciled in our rotation, we need a 3rd or 4th starter. I wouldn't mind signing a multi-year deal either.

I'm pretty sure we've been saying the same things over and over since October.

I guess it's time I gave my opinion on the Brad Ausmus signing. Forget all the numbers for a moment. Well, every number but one: 37. That's how old Ausmus will be one week into the 2006 season. Off the top of your head, how many catchers can you think of that were still productive at that age? Carlton Fisk......oops. That's it. So what does that tell you? CATCHERS DON'T AGE WELL. Yap all you want to about how Ausmus is great defensively, or 'calls a good game', or has great rapport with the umpires. I can quote stat after stat about how bad Ausmus is offensively. Let's call the two even. But the one thing neither side can deny is we just gave 7.5 million to a 37 year old catcher. And that is simply stupid.

Supposedly we're one of the finalists for the Nomar sweepstakes. Generally speaking, I think this is a good thing - Nomar is coming off a down year (and he still put up a 772 OPS when he played), so he won't break the bank, and all reports have him looking for a 1 year deal (for around 6-8 million), which is fine by me. However, I would much prefer seeing Nomar at SS than at LF. A Luke Scott / Chris Burke platoon (and that assumes Berkman would be at 1B because Bagwell can't play) could certainly put up a 750 OPS for a lot cheaper than Nomar will cost. However, Nomar would be a big upgrade at SS over Adam Everett. I don't think we should just move Everett, though - Nomar will definitely need the occasional day off. Everett would make a great defensive replacement and pinch-runner, too.

Oh yeah, Rondell White. I actually like him a lot - unfortunately, I just don't see where we can play him. Lance Berkman and Jason Lane aren't going anywhere - if Bagwell can throw, he'll be at 1B (occasionally spelled by Berkman / Lamb), and if he can't...well, then we could sign White, but we just don't know. White has played in some tough pitcher's parks throughout his career (his road OPS is a solid 842) and he's consistently hit lefties well (888 OPS). And from what I've seen of him, he looks to be a pretty dead pull hitter. He'd like that short LF porch. I think he could help the Astros - but where do we put him? So much is resting on Bagwell's shoulder. I think we have to assume he'll be the Astros starting 1B in '06 until we hear otherwise.

Jon Garland for 2 pitching prospects, eh? Andy weighed in on this earlier, so I'll keep it short: I'd be interested, as long as we don't have to sell the farm. Garland had a great year; part of that was the incredible White Sox defense, though. Podsednik, Crede, Uribe, and Rowand are all well above-average defensively. I think Garland might regress a little bit next year simply because his last year was so much better than his previous career stats. However, he is still very young, and his most comparable player at his age was Brad Radke, which sounds good to me. He'll make at least 5 million in arbitration this year, though, so it would be a moderately expensive one year rental. Still, we're going to need another starter from somewhere. And I can only recommend Jason Johnson so many times.

Well, we're still waiting for Nomar to make a decision, and it won't happen 'til at least this weekend. There's a rumor floating around that the Astros will trade two pitching prospects for Jon Garland of the White Sox.

After trading for Javier Vazquez, the White Sox have a plethora of pitchers — Beurhle, Contreras, Garcia, Garland and Brandon McCarthy, who they'd like to work into the rotation full-time. Contreras and Garland will be free agents after 2006, so they will most likely deal one of them.

Garland was incredibly good for the Sox last year, posting career highs in ERA (3.50), WHIP (1.17), wins (18), IP (221) , strikeouts (115) and shutouts (3). He came out of the gates on fire, winning his first eight starts and 12 of his first 14. He faded a bit in August, but picked it back up in September and got some deserved Cy Young votes.

Garland's superb sinker makes him an extreme ground-ball pitcher; his career ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is 1.33. He is still prone to giving up the long ball (26 is '05, 34 in '04), and still doesn't strike anybody out: His K-rate has declined in each of the past four years. He definitely benefited from having a superb infield behind him to gobble up ground balls. Garland's control really clicked last year. He walked only 47 batters in 221 innings. That 1.91 BB/9 rate was well below his career 3.35 mark. The big question is, can he keep it up? Was 2005 a fluke, or the new norm? Will he fall back down to Earth, or will he keep improving?

One thing you can count on: He'll likely stay healthy. You can't say enough about a guy who's started 131 games the past four years. And he'll obviously benefit from moving to the NL. Plus, he'll have Brad Ausmus, who's from Dartmouth, so he has his PhD: Pitcher-Helping Degree. More like Puny-Hitting Degree.

In short, Garland would be a very good improvement for us, especially now that Clemens is somewhat out of the picture. I think we could expect Garland to post another 3.50 ERA if he comes to Houston. The problems are: 1) We'd only have him for one year, 2) He'll probably make $6-$7 million in arbitration, and 3) We'd have to trade a couple of top prospects to get him.

So is it worth it to trade away two of: Wandy/Zeke/Nieve/Hirsh/Buchholz/Patton for one year of Garland? It depends on who we give up, but this might not be such a bad move. It's always risky to trade away top prospects, but as Jack has quoted, "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Or something like that. The point is, you just never know with young pitchers.

The point is, a rotation of Oswalt/Pettitte/Garland/Backe/Zeke would be great, and, if everyone stays healthy, could be among the best in baseball. Garland could never replace Clemens, but if we improve the team offensively, he may not have to. With Bagwell back and Lane, Taveras and Burke all improving, we might have enough bats to complement our fantastic rotation.

If this trade is indeed on the table, I urge Purpura to pursue it. Try to sell the Sox on Buchholz and Wandy, but try to get the deal done at any price. It's never good to make a move just for the sake of making a move, but it's getting damn near that point. Purp, you gota do something!

The more I think about Rondell White, the less I like him. We already have Berkman, Lane, Taveras, Palmeiro, Burke and Scott (whose status on the ML team should be all but cemented). Berkman and Burke will play occasionally in the infield, but those six are a very good outfield as it stands. White would significantly decrease playing time for Scott and Burke, and his potential talent isn't much of an upgrade.

Jack recommends we try Burke at shortstop: I really support this idea. Burke may have a breakout year in '06: I think it's important to find ABs for him.

The big question is: What will we do with Adam Everett? I've heard his name in trade rumors (to the Braves, of all teams … won't happen now that they have Renteria … ) Can you think of a team who would even consider him at short? Maybe the Mets, since they're always trying to catch up on defense. Maybe some suckers like the Royals or Twins. I'm sure the Red Sox would love to have him back, but only as a late-inning defensive replacement which, unfortunately for him, is where I see his career heading.) Defense is great — and vital for his position — but one must be able to hit to stay in the league, and AE has not shown ability to succeed in this endeavor.

If we trade him, I hope we have another playe who could fill in at short, someone besides Burke and Bruntlett. I would support Timmy if he signed Nomar with the intention of trading AE for a reliever or decent minor league starter. That way, Nomar, Burke or Bruntlett could all play short, and Ausmus would be the only "hole" in our lineup. Check this out:

CF Taveras - SS Burke - LF Berkman - 3B Ensberg - 1B Bagwell - RF Lane - 2B Biggio - C Ausmus. Or:

CF Taveras - 2B Biggio - LF Berkman - 3B Ensberg - SS Nomar - 1B Bagwell - RF Lane - C Ausmus.

If we somehow eliminate AE from our lineup, the Ausmus deal suddenly looks less horrific.

It has come to my attention that Jason LaRue, who's a free agent after 2006, will not be in an Astros uniform anytime soon. This sucks … I was hoping we'd get him for the second half of his peak years.

Oh, Nomar…

Ron-DL White visited with the Astros in Houston a couple days ago. His career parallels Austin Kearns': Very good when healthy, but somehow manages to miss 50 games a year. His career .815 OPS would be a great addition to our offensively-challenged club, but Rondell has averaged 115 games a year since becoming a regular for Montreal in 1995.

Plus, I can't see how we can sign a big-name free agent (even as big as Rondell White). With Bagwell at first, we'd have nowhere to put him. Bagwell's not going to take a seat for anyone while he's healthy, so it's not worth it to commit money to a first baseman or an outfielder if we can't find him at-bats.

The problem we've had for the last four years is the absolute black hole at the bottom of our lineup. Everyone says we need to add another bat, but Rondell White or Adam Dunn or Brian Giles would not have changed Ausmus-Everett-pitcher as our 7-8-9 hitters. Taveras, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Bagwell and Lane make a very good lineup. Acquiring Rondell White or even Dunn would replace one of these hitters, not Everett or Ausmus.

Which is why we should sign Nomar. He's willing to play anywhere, but I think he can still play short. It's been over six months since he tore his groin, so that should be all nice and healed by now. Sure, he wouldn't be a fantastic defender, but he'd make up for it with the bat. And if Garner's smart, he'd play Everett for Pettitte's starts.

From what I've heard and read, we are still talking with him. I think I saw the Yankees offer him $4 million for one year, which is ridiculous. Get 'im, Tim!

Isn't it a bit silly the way team reporters skew stats and words to try and make everything sound good? Some excerpts from Jim Molony's article on the Ausmus and Lamb signings (and my expert analysis):

"[Ausmus] led all NL catchers in the second half with 55 hits." (He was good in the second half, but by no means the best catcher in the NL.)

"Ausmus [is] the only Gold Glove catcher in Astros franchise history … He is also the Houston franchise leader in games caught with 914." (So what? Games Played is not a significant stat. As for the Gold Gloves, they're nice, but I'd rather see some doubles.)

"Over 13 big-league seasons … Ausmus has hit .255 with 71 homers and 508 RBIs. (Yes, but he's 37 already, and can only get worse. He's never posted double digits in homers, and has no more than six in one season for the Astros. His career high in RBI is 54.)

"[Lamb has] been one of the Astros' best clutch hitters." (Lamb actually surprised me here: He put up a .912 OPS w/RISP. But molony never mentions his sub-.300 OBP.)

"He played in 125 games and started at five different positions…' (Molony includes DH as a "position." And is playing 125 games a good thing? with lamb's defense, absolutely not!)

"Lamb hit a career-high five triples and recorded 13 doubles. he walked 22 times while striking out 65 times in 322 at-bats." (Again, I don't know if Molony's trying to inspire confidence with these numbers. Walking 22 times in 322 ABS? And who cares about the triples? Urg.)

You see my point. I know these guys are more PR people than actual journalists, but come on! Show a little analytical thought: these guys are not good at the plate.

The bad news was inevitable: We re-signed Brad Ausmus. But it gets worse: We're giving him $7.5 million for two years. Forget the money (which is enormous) — the fact that we'll have a 39-year-old catcher in 2007 is not good news. To his credit, he performed admirably last season, putting up very good numbers for an old, "defense-oriented" catcher. He managed to have good at-bats and work walks while the rest of our team (Taveras, Lane) couldn't take a walk if their lives depended on it. Still, the man cannot hit for power. And at 38 at 39, no one's expecting a sudden surge. He may work wonders with Pettitte and Oswalt, and he may bring Clemens back … in May. But I wish we wouldn't have signed him, though everyone knew we would.

Ever optimistic, I saved the good news for last. Rotoworld.com has us bidding for Nomar, but as a left-fielder. Nomar, who has said that he's willing to switch positions for a contender, would be a great signing for us. He could play shortstop in place of Everett, or he could play left field if/when Bagwell gets hurt. This guy can still swing the bat, and he'd put up great numbers in the Juicebox. Purpura needs to sign Nomar, not just for the offense he'd bring us, but to show everyone that he can make a good acquisition. It would make up for the Palmeiro, Lamb and Ausmus debacles. I'd even overpay Nomar and give him $16 million over two years. We must get something done this offseason.

Jon Daniels, the Rangers' new GM, acquired Vicente Padilla from the Phillies for a PTBN, who most likely will be Ricardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a young reliever who might be good someday but probably won't. Padilla, as Jack and I have said before, has the talent to put up very good numbers. He'll make $4 to $5 million in arbitration, and he might only pitch half a season, but he's the type of player who can win games under the radar. He'll never have impressive stats, but he'll give the team a chance to win whenever he pitches. Yes, the Rangers are going to eat their hats if Padilla's arm falls off. But at least they're doing something. Standing pat won't work.

I've heard rumors of as Astros blockbuster. Everyone has Lidge being traded away for a slugger. I think we need to hold onto Lidge for at least another year. He won't cost more than $4 million, and his arm is not going to fall off next year (Eventually... maybe.) But a proven closer is always nice to have. I think Qualls or Wheeler would be okay in that role, but I wouldn't like to see Russ Springer pitching important eighth innings. Anyway, Lidge is a great commodity for $3 to $4 million. Trade him next offseason.

I'm not sure how I missed it, but there is an intersting article in the Chronicle about the Astros' offseason plans. Some notable quotes:

The Astros, according to sources with knowledge of the situation, have also had talks with the Texas Rangers about acquiring left fielder Kevin Mench, who would fill the club's desire for a righthanded bat.

Why do we need a righty bat? Lane, Biggio, Ensberg, Taveras, Everett, Bagwell, and Ausmus not enough for you? We need a LEFTY bat to pair with Berkman.

"That was a nice commitment on (owner) Drayton's (McLane) part to lock up a guy who's been a nice part of our ballclub and a key contributor and is great with young players and a great role model," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said. "He fits with our mold pretty well."

It seems like Purpura mentions character and being a "great role model" a little too often. Ok, fine, he's a nice guy. But can he play? Note that I'm not criticizing the move, though I'm not that fond of it, but it's strange to justify it by mentioning how well he "fits with our mold".

The Astros also appear to be close to reaching a two-year contract agreement with free-agent catcher Brad Ausmus. Purpura said a deal could be worked out in the "next several days."

"We keep narrowing the gap, and everybody's working together," he said.

Kill me now. A two year deal?? Do you enjoy causing me misery? WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS?? Fine, we have no good catching prospects. Trade for someone! Sign someone next year! Anything but two more crappy years of no-power, overrated-defense, "he calls a game well", 37-year old Brad Ausmus. Piss poor.

Purpura said free-agent pitchers Jarrod Washburn and Scott Elarton, who will become a free agent if he declines the Cleveland Indians' arbitration offer, could be of interest.

Washburn is a lefty fly-ball pitcher (career 0.74 GB/FB ratio, 0.97 last year.) He also only struck out 94 batters in 177.2 IP. He would get destroyed by the Crawford Boxes. DESTROYED. But what about Andy Pettitte, you say? Pettitte is a severe ground ball pitcher (1.73 career, 1.62 last year). He makes Adam Everett look really good (maybe the other way around, I guess). He can succeed at The Juice Box. I don't think Washburn can. Oh, and he's a Scott Boras guy, so expect him to command top dollar. It damn well shouldn't be from us.

Elarton is a little more interesting. He had a decent year last year:

4.61 ERA
1.30 WHIP
48 BB
103 K
181.2 IP

Unfortunately, he's also a fly-ball pitcher (0.67 GB/FB ratio last year, 0.79 career), and he's given up 65 HR's the last two years. I think he'd give up a lot of Crawford shots. Pass.

And as for my dark horse, Jason Johnson? Well:

210.0 IP
49 BB
93 K
4.54 ERA
1.74 GB / FB ratio (1.24 career)

First off, he's durable - at least 190.0 IP the last 3 years.
Second, he doesn't walk anybody anymore - from 80 walks to 60 to 49 the last three years.
Unfortunately, he doesn't strike out anybody anymore either - 118 K's to 125 to 93.
But he's redeemed himself by becoming a groundball machine. Ready for this?

0.83
0.92
1.09
1.18
1.31
1.68
1.74

Notice a trend? Those are Johnson's GB / FB ratios the last 7 years. I don't know how he's done it, but he's improved his ratio every year, and you have to assume he can keep it up. And with our infield defense (especially if we keep Everett), we can turn a lot of those ground balls into outs. Johnson is 32 years old, so we shouldn't give him a huge deal - he signed a 2 year / 7 million dollar deal with the Tigers 2 years ago - I'd be happy to give him 2 / 8 or 2 / 9. I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

SIGN JASON JOHNSON!

Finally, there is a really cool article over at The Hardball Times which looks at pitchers' home run rates and predicts starting pitchers who are likely to significantly slump or improve next year due to unusually large increases this past year. A few pitchers of interest:

Most Likely to Regress Next Year:

7. Roger Clemens, -9
12. Roy Oswalt, -7

Most Likely to Improve Next Year:

1. Javier Vazquez, 12
10. Ezequiel Astacio, 8

So this chart is telling us that given a pitcher's career HR rate and IP last year, we would have expected Clemens and Oswalt to have given up 9 and 7 more HR's last year and Vazquez and Astacio to have given up 12 and 8 fewer HR's last year. Yet another reason why I would love to pursue Vazquez and why Astacio will end up being much better than Wandy Rodriguez.

There are quite a few Brad Lidge trade rumors going around right now.

Check out this post at Astros Daily where they ask people to guess the blockbuster trade the Astros will make this offseason - it's pretty fun. Most of them are involve us trading Lidge + prospects for either Miggy, Manny, Abreu, or Adam Dunn.

First of all: do I think we will trade Brad Lidge? Actually, I think it's fairly likely. The organization has proven in the past that we don't mind trading away closers (see Wagner, Dotel) in order to bring in prospects (Astacio, Bucholz in the Wagner deal) or superstars (Beltran in the Dotel deal). This is a great mindset to have, since closers pitch around 80 innings a year at most and are simply not as valuable as a starting pitcher or everyday player.

Of those four possibilites, I'd be most interested in trading for (drum roll) Adam Dunn. Tejada fills a bigger hole for us, Manny is a Top 5 offensive player in MLB, and Abreu would be a sweet homecoming, but they're all freakin' expensive and on the wrong side of 30. Dunn, on the other hand, is only moderately expensive (4.6 mil last year, will probably want a raise to around 7/8/9 million this year), is from Houston, and (best of all) just turned 26. Oh, and he has a career line of .248 / .383 / .518. And did I mention he's 26 years old?

The Reds, as always, need pitching - I would do something like Backe + Lidge or Astacio + Lidge or Nieve + Lidge in a heartbeat.

Oh, and just in case you were interested, Adam Dunn's two most similar players through age 25? Darryl Strawberry and Reggie Jackson.

Brad Lidge's? Ken Tatum and Mariano Rivera. Ok, Rivera is pretty good.

You might not know Lidge is about to turn 29, and he still has some injury concerns. Dunn has no such concerns, and actually has an above-average Range Factor in LF. I admit that I have a bit of a baseball crush on Adam Dunn, but, one more time:

Age: 26
Career line: .248 / .383 / .518, 158 HR

Ignore the .248 and focus on the 901 career OPS. Yum.

Matthew Reed pointed out that the Ramon Hernandez signing is now official: 4 years, 27.5 million from the Orioles. I guess they'll be trying to move Javy Lopez or maybe mix him in at DH / 1B? Either way, this is a good signing for the O's, though it would be a lot better if it were something like 3 years / 21 million. That extra year for a catcher who will be 33 is dangerous. Hernandez has hit in pitcher's parks his entire career (Oakland, San Diego), has truly good defensive statistics (as opposed to the unprovable 'he handles a staff well' Ausmus nonsense), and has been durable (and hit well after his wrist injury last year). I probably would have given Hernandez this exact same contract for the Astros if I knew that he would take it. It looks like we may have to sre-sign Ausmus - who else is there?

Ever since the Rangers traded Alfonso Soriano to the Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge, and a PTBNL (which is an absolute steal, because Soriano has sucked away from Texas, is poor defensively, and is expensive), there have been rumors regarding their outfielders. As of right now, they have Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge (yep, two r's), David Dellucci, Laynce Nix, and Gary Matthews Jr. They're going to trade a few of those guys, and it looks like Kevin Mench is drawing a lot of interest from teams, including the Astros.

Let's take a look at Mench's career stats:

Home: .286 / .356 / .505, 92 XBH, 72 BB
Away: .256 / .310 / .461, 79 XBH, 52 BB

Those away numbers aren't quite as attractice, are they? I don't mean to say Mench isn't a decent player - he'll be 28 to start the '06 season, and still has one more year of arbitration, so he won't break the bank. But he is partly a product of his home field.

I'd be more interested in Brad Wilkerson or Terrmel Sledge, for different reasons:

Wilkerson is a walkin' fool. 89, 104, and 84 walks the last three years. He has a career .365 OBP (and with Biggio, Lane, and Taveras in the line-up, we need some OBP from somebody), and a career 817 OPS. He's bettre defensively than Mench (he's played games in CF). It looks like he had a down year last year because he only had 11 home runs, but he had 42 doubles and 9 tripled in a huge home park, and part of that was due to an ugly 2nd half. Oh, and he even hits lefties well (career .837 OPS). The only bad news about Wilkerson is he earned 3.5 million last year compared to Mench's 345,000. He's worth it if he keeps drawing 80 walks a year, though. Just make him stop running (45 SB, 38 CS).

Ah, Terrmel Sledge. He's basically a poor man's Jacque Jones with more patience and less defense. He only got 37 AB's in the majors last year but he had a solid year in '04: (.269 / .336 / .462, 41 XBH, 40 BB in 398 AB). He's 28, just like Mench and Wilkerson. He rips on righties (career 832 OPS) and is still 2 years away from arbitration. He can't hit lefties but he and Chris Burke would make a kick-ass platoon in LF. Unfortunately, it might take Burke to get Sledge.

I'd rank them like this:

1. Sledge (cheap for at least 2 more years, poor man's Jacque Jones)
2. Wilkerson (tons of walks, the most expensive)
3. Mench (cheap for 1 more year, not that great away from Texas)

Keep talking to people, Purpura!

Astros news:

The Astros sign OP to a 2 year / 1.9 million deal. Meh. I don't much care for it. Yeah, Palmeiro is all right - he plays solid defense, works counts, and has put up OBP's of .336, .344, and .341 the last three years, which aren't terrible for a bench playear (though he has no power). But he's also 37 and we gave him a two year deal? Where does that leave Luke Scott? It's not a terrible signing, but if we give Ausmus this exact same deal I'll be pissed.

Astros rumors:

Taveras + ?to the D-Backs for Javier Vazquez

Scott Barzilla is fighting the good fight on the Astros Daily message boards for this trade. Go check them out if you want more info. Here's my take:

Taveras is a young CF who is likely to improve, but he just put up a .666 OPS with 25 walks and 20 extra base hits in 592 AB's. He has value since he's cheap and plays good defense and steals bases at a decent clip, but he's not that great.

Javier Vazquez has demanded a trade from the D-Backs, and he's set to make 15 million over the next 2 years. His numbers don't look that great (4.91 ERA with the Yankees last year, 4.42 ERA with the D-Backs this year), but he's pitched in some tough parks and his BB / K ratio (a great indicator of future success) is superb. He is a bit of a flyball pitcher, so he'll give up his share of HR's at Minute Maid, but the guy is only 29 years old, extremely durable, and has a career BB/ K ratio of almost 3.5. If we did this trade without throwing in too much else, I would like it quite a bit. A front three of Oswalt / Pettitte / Vazquez would be really nice.

There have been rumors that a few teams have been interested in Adam Everett, but we've told them forget it. WHY??? At least listen to what they're offering!!

Miguel Tejada wants out of Baltimore. I don't think they're going to trade him, but if he wants out, look into it. He's making 48 million the next 4 years but he'd be a huge upgrade over Everett at SS. I don't see it though.

More later, gotta run.

The first truly good move by Tim Purpura:

Astros declined to offer arbitration to infielder Jose Vizcaino.
We're surprised the Astros couldn't work anything out with Vizcaino, who had been with the club the last five years. He'll land a reserve job elsewhere. The Astros said they haven't decided whether to offer arbitration to Brad Ausmus or Orlando Palmeiro. Negotations are ongoing. -Rotoworld

WOOHOO!!!

This just in:

Mark Sweeney has agreed to a two-year, $1.8 million contract with the Giants, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.The Giants could platoon Sweeney and Lance Niekro at first base and get pretty reasonable production, but they'll probably keep looking for another left-handed-hitting first baseman, allowing Sweeney to be used primarily as a pinch-hitter. Sweeney hit .294/.395/.466 in 221 AB for the Padres last season.

And there goes another guy that I would have liked to have signed. 2 year / 1.8 million for a guy that has put up .377 and .395 OBP's the last two years. By contrast, Mike Lamb has put .356 and .284 OBP's the last two years for a similar salary. Hell, offer Sweeney the same contract but remind him that Jeff Bagwell is going to need plenty of time off, so he'll start more here! Gah.

Let's get right to the Astros moves for today.

Non-Move 1:

Braves acquired RHP Lance Cormier and RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Diamondbacks catchers Johnny Estrada. Cormier and Villarreal were about the last relievers we would have selected from the Arizona pen, but the Braves deserve some benefit of the doubt in cases like these. Cormier, 25, had a 5.11 ERA in 79 1/3 IP last season. His offspeed pitches are pretty good, but he only works at 90-91 mph and he doesn't have great command. He's just a middle reliever. Villarreal had a very promising rookie season as a 21-year-old in 2003, but after pitching 98 innings in one start and 85 relief appearances, he started suffering from arm problems and he's failed to contribute the last two seasons. He's already arbitration eligible, making him expendable in Arizona. We're not especially optimistic that he'll ever bounce back. - Rotoworld

So the Diamondbacks traded two mediocre young relievers (one of whom has been hurt the last two years) to the Braves for Johnny Estrada?? There goes a 29-year old catcher who had a .828 OPS in '04 who we could have had for cheap for the next several years. Hell, if the Braves took those guys, I guarantee they would have taken Dan Wheeler or Wandy Rodriguez + Mike Burns or some deal along those lines. What a disappointment. I never heard that we were even interested in Estrada. I just don't get it.

Move 2:

ESPNews is reporting that the Astros have told Roger Clemens they won't offer him arbitration.This rules out the possibility of him rejoining the Astros before May 1. Clemens is said to be leaning toward retirement, but he still wants to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Perhaps this opens the door for Clemens to join the Yankees, Rangers or Red Sox on a one-year deal or maybe he'll re-sign with the Astros later on. The Astros now become much bigger players in free agency and trade talks. - Rotoworld

I understand you don't want to offer Clemens a huge one-year contract, have him accept it, and then he gets hurt or decides he's going to retire. But couldn't we just offer him something like 1 year / 10 million (he's worth that in ticket sales / advertisements alone) and if Clemens rejects it then at least we get a draft pick if he decides to sign with another team. Moving on without Clemens? Fine. Not getting at least a draft pick for him if he goes elsewhere? Stupid.

A possible silver lining is that we use the money from the Clemens deal and get in on signing Ramon Hernandez. Too bad he's a Scott Boras client, so we'll probably have to go to at least 3 years / 24 million. I'd do that or possibly a bit more, though - we have NO good catching prospects, and Hernandez has had 3 good years in a row.

I'll talk about some of the other moves later (Juan Pierre to the Cubs, Mark Loretta to the Red Sox, etc.), but for now let's se some action, Purpura. Looks like you have a little more leeway now. Oh, and Austin Kearns is probably off the trade block now since Sean Casey is going to the Pirates (so the Reds will likely move Adam Dunn to 1st base).

Go Tim go!

There are a lot of Winter Meeting rumors out there right now. It sure if fun talking about them, but they're ultimately just rumors. Case in point - I said it looked like the Cardinals had Burnett signed, but now it looks like it's the Blue Jays for 5/55. 102 million combined on B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett? At least they both have two-initial first names.

The D-Backs have supposedly shown interest in Brad Ausmus, to which I say: YES!! The more teams that show interest in him, the higher his price goes, and the less likely it becomes that we sign him. Or maybe we give him a 2 year / 7 million dollar deal and I cry. Either way.

Other players that might be available in trades that I'd be interested in: Bobby Abreu, Austin Kearns, Jason LaRue, Johnny Estrada. I'd especially like to give Kearns a try - he had a rough year last year, but he's a 25 year old with a career .821 OPS.

Players that the Astros could trade that either I wouldn't mind trading or their current trade value is at its peak: Brandon Backe, Dan Wheeler, Adam Everett, Wandy Rodriguez.

Backe picks it up in the playoffs, but as Scott Barzilla as pointed out, ALL his rate stats are below league average. He simply cannot be a decent pitcher with his current walk rate and K rate.

Dan Wheeler's trade value could not possibly be any higher. He has to come back to Earth eventually.

Adam Everett is overrated - his counting stats (11 HR, 54 RBI) obscure his .654 OPS. Good defense, but we can do better.

Wandy Rodriguez is actually in similar to Jeriome Robertson from a few years back - superficially good record (10-10 as a #5 starter) despite an ugly ERA (5.53, 1.46 WHIP). Deal him.

Backe for Austin Kearns and Dan Wheeler for Estrada - you can do it, Purpura!

One of the main misconceptions with Moneyball is that it's all about on-base percentage (OBP). In fact, the main idea presented in the book was the idea that the best way to have success in baseball is to take advantages of qualities that the market undervalues. At the time that the Oakland A's were putting a mini-dynasty together, those qualities were on-base percentage. However, they've adapted. Last year they were 14th in the majors in OBP, yet they still won 88 games despite injuries to Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, and Octavio Dotel. How? It's too general to say "pitching and defense", but that's in part how they did it: with a pitching staff built to not allow home runss and a truly outstanding defense to take care of anything put in play (they finished 2nd in baseball in Defensive Efficiency, behind the White Sox.)

Why am I talking about this? Well, what is undervalued in the baseball market these days? OBP? Nah. Defense? Maybe. Starting pitching? Never. I do like what the Cardinals have done, though - assemble one ace and back him up with a bunch of guys that can give you 4.00 to 4.50 ERAs. I still think a guy like Jason Johnson could do that for us. But truthfully, so far this offseason, very little is being undervalued. In fact, of all the signings made so far, I would have made exactly one (Brian Giles, 3 years, 30 million.) It looks like A.J. Burnett (career 3.73 ERA) is about to get 5 years / 50 million from the Cards. It seems like all the big-name free agents are getting huge deals, and even some mediocre players (Hector Carrasco, Kyle Farnsworth, etc.) are getting fairly big deals. What to do?

If I'm Tim Purpura, I don't make any big moves. Sign a 4th OF if you like, (Matt Lawton, Rondell White if he's healthy, Todd Hollandsworth, Mark Sweeney) in case Bagwell can't play and Berkman has to move to 1st. Don't re-sign Viz, Ausmus, or Palmeiro - let Chris Burke and Luke Scott be the backup OF's if you don't sign anyone. Bruntlett can take over Viz's utility spot. And only sign Ausmus if Clemens gives you an absolute ultimatum that he won't come back without him. Look to make trades (the Braves supposedly offered Johnny Estrada to the D-Rays for Julio Lugo. Show interest in Estrada! The Phillies might be looking to move Jason Michaels...etc.) Small, smart moves, and at least look into possible trades.

I'm doing a presentation on baseball statistics (a.k.a 'Sabermetrics') in my statistical theory class on Wednesday. I'm going to talk about how it got started (if you're interested, check out 'The Numbers Game' by Alan Schwarz), how I got into it, and new developments recently. It should be fun.

Astros news:

Houston re-signed Russ Springer for 2006. I've read he's making $750,000, but it hasn't been confirmed. Springer was better than advertised last year. His 4.73 ERA wasn't pretty, but a 1.19 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings sure is. He's 37, so let's not expect any miracles. The price is decent, although we could have saved half a million by calling up a rookie like Hirsh or Nieve. Still, it might be in our best interest to keep those two in the minors for another year.

Luke Scott is Barry Bonds' cousin. He's batting .439 / .536 / .930 in 57 at-bats in Venezuela. And he's playing centerfield. Intersting…

The D-Backs have an interest acquiring Brad Ausmus. Whatever. If anything, this is good news. It might drive his price out of our range.

Other intersting trades and signings:

• Giles re-signs with San Diego. I didn't think we had much of a shot at him. We'd have trouble playing Lane, Berkman, Bagwell and Giles, and we couldn't afford him. But props to a guy who takes a significant pay cut to play where he wants to.

• Hector Carrasco to the Angels for two years, $6 million. It's looking like Pual Byrd has a 3-year, $20 million offer on the table from some mystery team. I can tell you who it isn't: the Astros.

• Tom Gordon to the Phillies for 3 years, $18 million. He's a lot cheaper than Billy the Kid, although three years to a 38-year-old is about as secure as asking a little old lady to watch your stuff while you go break a twenty.

• Kyle Farnsworth to the Yankees for 3 years, $17 million. This for a guy who put up a 4.72 ERA in 2004 (Not to mention his two fantastic innings in NLDS Game Four)? Pass.

• Tim Worrell back to the Giants for 2 years, $4 million. Not

• Luis Castillo to the Twins for prospects. One, Travis Bowyer, is decent. Ninety-six strikeouts in 74 innings decent. He might close soon. Castillo will help the Twins, but unless Morneau and Hunter return to form and the Twinkies find another pitcher besides Santana, it won't be enough

• Manny, Abreu, LoDuca, Benson, Soriano, Pavano, Bradley, Blalock, Pierre and Jason Michaels are staying put. For now.

• Millwood, Burnett, Byrd, The Big Hurt, Nomar, Hoffman, Morris, Molina and Hernandez are still available...

This, from Baseball Insider:

"Houston's rising salary structure has prompted Purpura to explore trades rather than free-agent signings as a possible way to upgrade the Astros' offense. Baseball sources told ESPN.com the Astros have expressed interest in Texas outfielder Kevin Mench and Philadelphia's Jason Michaels, but backed off when the Rangers and Phillies asked for starter Brandon Backe in return. Houston would be more receptive to trading pitchers Ezequiel Astacio or Wandy Rodriguez for a hitter.

The Astros are working to retain backup outfielder Orlando Palmeiro and catcher Brad Ausmus, who has a choice of returning to Houston or signing with San Diego."

This is all good news. Not great, but good. It's good to see that Purpura is looking into available players, trying to cash in on second-tier players for bargain deals. But given our status and roster, I wouldn't give up Backe for Michaels, though it'd be tough to say no. Palmeiro would be fine as a fifth oufielder again, so long as he doesn't block Luke Scott. The more I read about him, the more I like Luke Scott. I like saying Luke Scott.

The Reds are still noncommital on LaRue. What could it take to snatch him? A pitching prospect, perhaps? Maybe Dunn and LaRue for Lane, Burke and Nieve? Looks like an even trade to me.