Fantasy baseball ramblings: You'd better get a top-4 pick in your fantasy baseball draft. A-Rod, Beltran, Pujols and Vladi are light years ahead of everyone else. If you have the fifth pick, who the heck do you take? Barry? Johan? Manny? Randy? Tom Berenger?
I've been noticing that third base is STACKED. There are at least a dozen third basemen with 30-homer potential: A-Rod, Rolen, Beltre, Ramirez, Chavez, Blalock, Huff, Mora, Chipper, Lowell, Glaus, Blake. Not to mention Vinny, David Wright, Koskie, Boone, Mueller, Bellhorn...
The middle infield positions are down though. Big time. Second base especially, where six of the top players (Soriano, Kent, Boone, Giles, Reyes, Vidro) have declined drastically the past year or so, mostly due to age or injury. Shortstop is not the coveted position it once was ever since A-Rod left. After Tejada, Jeter's going downhill and Nomar's anything but a sure thing. I want to put Michael Young ahead of both of them. Still, there are a ton of second-tier players, but none are going to save your team: Renteria, Cabrera, Rollins, Furcal... A big question mark is Carlos Guillen.
Well that's all for now. Maybe I'll come out with some sleeper picks or something. I bet Lane will be up there.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Rumors are still circulating that we're looking to acquire a "true centerfielder" before the season starts. The Tigers released Alex Sanchez today, but I feel dirty even mentioning his name. He has 68 walks in 1351 career ABs. But his .364 SLG is somehow better than Palmeiro's.
I say we take another look at Marlon Byrd. I forgot all about him until I read today that he's hitting 10-for-24 for the Spring. He's 27, and hit a decent .303/.366/.418 in 2003. He has the potential to be a contributor but right now is blocked by old man Lofton. And the Phillies suffered through his horrendous 2004 campaign, so probably won't want much for him.
I'm not sure how Lane is progressing as a centerfielder, but my instincts tell me not good. He's built to be a corner outfielder. If we do acquire a Marlon Byrd or a Randy Winn or a Mike Cameron, we'd be crowding our starters. But we'd be assured of a decent lineup until Berkman returns:
Biggio LF
Burke 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Byrd CF
Everett SS
Ausmus C
When Berkman comes back, we'll have to cut the playing time of either Byrd or Burke. Or hell, maybe even Biggio.
I was relieved to see that Pettitte was scratched from his start because of a mild ankle sprain he suffered when he fell down some steps. Thank God it wasn't his elbow. It's a bad time of year to be a Cubs fan. Prior and Wood are both nursing mild injuries. Not a good sign for them.
I say we take another look at Marlon Byrd. I forgot all about him until I read today that he's hitting 10-for-24 for the Spring. He's 27, and hit a decent .303/.366/.418 in 2003. He has the potential to be a contributor but right now is blocked by old man Lofton. And the Phillies suffered through his horrendous 2004 campaign, so probably won't want much for him.
I'm not sure how Lane is progressing as a centerfielder, but my instincts tell me not good. He's built to be a corner outfielder. If we do acquire a Marlon Byrd or a Randy Winn or a Mike Cameron, we'd be crowding our starters. But we'd be assured of a decent lineup until Berkman returns:
Biggio LF
Burke 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Byrd CF
Everett SS
Ausmus C
When Berkman comes back, we'll have to cut the playing time of either Byrd or Burke. Or hell, maybe even Biggio.
I was relieved to see that Pettitte was scratched from his start because of a mild ankle sprain he suffered when he fell down some steps. Thank God it wasn't his elbow. It's a bad time of year to be a Cubs fan. Prior and Wood are both nursing mild injuries. Not a good sign for them.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
A short Yahoo paragraph has me thinking...which would you rather have to start the season:
Option 1
Biggio LF
Taveras CF
Lane RF
Burke 2B
Option 2
Biggio LF
Lane CF
Palmeiro RF
Burke 2B
Option 3
Lane LF
Taveras CF
Palmeiro RF
Biggio 2B
Basically, you're choosing 2 of Taveras, Burke, and Palmeiro for the month or so until Berkman returns. The easy way out is to say Burke is a much better prospect than Taveras (he is), so we go with Option 1 or 2. Then I'd say I would rather see Taveras get a shot than Palmeiro, so I like Option 1. This would give us a probable Opening Day lineup of something like:
Biggio LF
Everett 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Burke 2B
Taveras CF
Ausmus C
Maybe you switch Everett and Taveras, or bat Taveras leadoff; it doesn't really matter that much.
The only thing is, the Yahoo report seemed to assume that it would come down to EITHER Taveras or Burke winning a starting job, because the Astros would "like to shift Biggio back to 2nd if Taveras wins the CF job to start the season." Well, frankly, that sucks, and it means we'd be going with Option 2, and essentially be choosing Palmeiro over Burke for a starting position. I've said it before, and I've said it again: Craig Biggio has said many times in the past that he's a team player, that he'll do what the team needs to do, etc., etc. Well, it's time to pay up, Bidge, and play outfield - at the very least until Lance comes back. Otherwise our Opening Day starting RF will have a career .348 SLG%.
Oh, and Notre Dame got screwed. Northern Iowa???? What crap.
Option 1
Biggio LF
Taveras CF
Lane RF
Burke 2B
Option 2
Biggio LF
Lane CF
Palmeiro RF
Burke 2B
Option 3
Lane LF
Taveras CF
Palmeiro RF
Biggio 2B
Basically, you're choosing 2 of Taveras, Burke, and Palmeiro for the month or so until Berkman returns. The easy way out is to say Burke is a much better prospect than Taveras (he is), so we go with Option 1 or 2. Then I'd say I would rather see Taveras get a shot than Palmeiro, so I like Option 1. This would give us a probable Opening Day lineup of something like:
Biggio LF
Everett 2B
Bagwell 1B
Lane RF
Ensberg 3B
Burke 2B
Taveras CF
Ausmus C
Maybe you switch Everett and Taveras, or bat Taveras leadoff; it doesn't really matter that much.
The only thing is, the Yahoo report seemed to assume that it would come down to EITHER Taveras or Burke winning a starting job, because the Astros would "like to shift Biggio back to 2nd if Taveras wins the CF job to start the season." Well, frankly, that sucks, and it means we'd be going with Option 2, and essentially be choosing Palmeiro over Burke for a starting position. I've said it before, and I've said it again: Craig Biggio has said many times in the past that he's a team player, that he'll do what the team needs to do, etc., etc. Well, it's time to pay up, Bidge, and play outfield - at the very least until Lance comes back. Otherwise our Opening Day starting RF will have a career .348 SLG%.
Oh, and Notre Dame got screwed. Northern Iowa???? What crap.
So the Astros scratched Andy Pettitte from a start (not good news, and does Phil Garner really expect Pettitte to be 100% for our 2nd game?) and replaced him with Tim Redding, who promptly gave up 1 hit, 1 walk, and 2 HBP's and had 6 K's in 4 innings. Before you get too excited, 4 of those strikeouts were called, and Redding himself said the umpire was being "generous" against lefties. Redding does still have the most talent of any of our 5th starter options, but all things equal, I'd like us to look to trade him after a good showing like this. Brandon Duckworth has also pitched fairly well (6.2 IP, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.05 ERA), so we might have a 5th starter or trade bait.
Andy, I'm not that mad that Biggio is PLAYING 2nd base this spring - I'm mad that he's STARTING at 2nd base. Biggio is going to make the team no matter what, and we know about what to expect. Chris Burke needs all the playing time against major leaguers that he can get, but he's coming off the bench every day. That's what I don't like.
Andy, I'm not that mad that Biggio is PLAYING 2nd base this spring - I'm mad that he's STARTING at 2nd base. Biggio is going to make the team no matter what, and we know about what to expect. Chris Burke needs all the playing time against major leaguers that he can get, but he's coming off the bench every day. That's what I don't like.
Friday, March 11, 2005
Good news from today's 8-7 win over the Braves:
Jason Lane had 2 HR's and 5 RBI's.
Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls pitched well.
We won a game.
Bad news:
Craig Biggio started at 2nd base. Again.
Roy Oswalt struggled a bit, but honestly, he's proven himself enough, and he still had 4 K's / 3 innings.
Adam Everett batted 2nd again, basically assuring us (if our Opening Day Lineup starts off with Biggio / Everett) of 2 of our worst OBP's at the top of the lineup. I'm resigned to Biggio, but I'd much rather see Ensberg or Burke bat 2nd.
Russ Springer gave up 4 hits and 3 runs in 1 inning.
Honestly, it seems like a bad dream to me that we are considering all of the following guys to help our bullpen (ages on right):
Dave Burba 38
Russ Springer 36
John Franco 44
Turk Wendell 37
I mean, DAMN. Seriously, why not give a prospect a chance over has-beens? If Qualls / Harville / Wheeler / Astacio don't make the team over some of those guys, we suck.
Jason Lane had 2 HR's and 5 RBI's.
Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls pitched well.
We won a game.
Bad news:
Craig Biggio started at 2nd base. Again.
Roy Oswalt struggled a bit, but honestly, he's proven himself enough, and he still had 4 K's / 3 innings.
Adam Everett batted 2nd again, basically assuring us (if our Opening Day Lineup starts off with Biggio / Everett) of 2 of our worst OBP's at the top of the lineup. I'm resigned to Biggio, but I'd much rather see Ensberg or Burke bat 2nd.
Russ Springer gave up 4 hits and 3 runs in 1 inning.
Honestly, it seems like a bad dream to me that we are considering all of the following guys to help our bullpen (ages on right):
Dave Burba 38
Russ Springer 36
John Franco 44
Turk Wendell 37
I mean, DAMN. Seriously, why not give a prospect a chance over has-beens? If Qualls / Harville / Wheeler / Astacio don't make the team over some of those guys, we suck.
Roy Oswalt was named our Opening Day Starter today. I hate to say this but it's probably the best news I've heard this winter. Oswalt should get the nod; although Clemens was arguably the better pitcher last year, he's also 42, so I like Oswalt more. What I can't say I completely agree with is having Pettitte pitch 2nd in the rotation. Yeah, yeah, you have to go righty-lefty-righy, but Pettitte is still recovering, and I don't know if he'll be 100%. If he is, fine, but I wouldn't mind seeing Oswalt - Clemens - Backe - Pettitte. Maybe I'm wrong, and hopefully Pettitte will be fine, but he is coming off a pretty serious injury.
WHERE THE HECK IS MY BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2005???
We lost to the Cards 4-2 in our last ST game; Backe pitched well to start but then walked 3 batters in a row to give up a few runs. Then, in the most encouraging news this spring, Ezequiel Astacio came in a pitched 3 scoreless innings. I'm not sure if I want him thrown into starting right away, but if he keeps pitching like this, it'll be hard to stop him.
WHERE THE HECK IS MY BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2005???
We lost to the Cards 4-2 in our last ST game; Backe pitched well to start but then walked 3 batters in a row to give up a few runs. Then, in the most encouraging news this spring, Ezequiel Astacio came in a pitched 3 scoreless innings. I'm not sure if I want him thrown into starting right away, but if he keeps pitching like this, it'll be hard to stop him.
Wednesday, March 09, 2005
Ugly, ugly game yesterday. I'm sure it made Drew happy, though. John Franco walked 4 batters and hit a batter in limited action AND he sucks against righties, so I'm not looking forward to a year of him. Dave Burba, who I thought was a decent risk as a spot starter / dark horse 5th starter, got ripped. Turk Wendell was also terrible, so it looks like our Old Guys Triumvirate of Franco / Burba / Wendell might not turn out so well. Oops.
Baseball Prospectus had a few notes on the Astros today:
They like Chad Qualls to be the 8th inning set-up guy for Brad Lidge, essentially because a) Harville is too wild b) Franco is too old and c) Dan Wheeler isn't as good as he showed late last year. I agree, and think that Qualls might be a bright spot for the Astros this year, with a possibility of 70-80 innings of ~3.00-3.50 ERA.
They also say that one of the first signs of how the season will go will come early, when the Astros decide between Vizcaino, Biggio, and Burke at 2B. If we fall into the "proven veteran" trap and start Viz or Biggio, we're likely to expect to contend all year and make one last run with Biggio / Clemens / Berkman / Ausmus. If we do the correct thing and start Burke, it means we realize we're not likely to be as good as the Cubs or Cardinals barring a lot of things going right, and that it's more important right now to get our top prospects (Lane, Burke, Astacio?) playing time. I also agree here, and can't even stomach the thought of Vizcaino instead of Burke starting at 2B. At least Biggio has been good to the Astros in the past.
JT and Andy were both right and Peter Gammons was wrong: Carlos Hernandez is not out of options. So look for him to go back to AAA, and it's likely one of Redding / Munro / Duckworth will get the #5 spot, and two will be released / traded.
Baseball Prospectus had a few notes on the Astros today:
They like Chad Qualls to be the 8th inning set-up guy for Brad Lidge, essentially because a) Harville is too wild b) Franco is too old and c) Dan Wheeler isn't as good as he showed late last year. I agree, and think that Qualls might be a bright spot for the Astros this year, with a possibility of 70-80 innings of ~3.00-3.50 ERA.
They also say that one of the first signs of how the season will go will come early, when the Astros decide between Vizcaino, Biggio, and Burke at 2B. If we fall into the "proven veteran" trap and start Viz or Biggio, we're likely to expect to contend all year and make one last run with Biggio / Clemens / Berkman / Ausmus. If we do the correct thing and start Burke, it means we realize we're not likely to be as good as the Cubs or Cardinals barring a lot of things going right, and that it's more important right now to get our top prospects (Lane, Burke, Astacio?) playing time. I also agree here, and can't even stomach the thought of Vizcaino instead of Burke starting at 2B. At least Biggio has been good to the Astros in the past.
JT and Andy were both right and Peter Gammons was wrong: Carlos Hernandez is not out of options. So look for him to go back to AAA, and it's likely one of Redding / Munro / Duckworth will get the #5 spot, and two will be released / traded.
I think we may have found three new Dan Miceli's.
Old fogies Burba, Franco and Wendell combined to give up 17 runs on Tuesday against our 2000 opening-day starter, Scott Elarton. We lost 21-4. Good thing these games don't count.
Some more bad news: Lidge gave up 2 runs, Burke went 0-for-3, Biggio committed an error at second base, and Orlando Palmeiro actually drove in a run. Hope he doesn't have a good spring and earn some playing time.
Good news (if there is any): Bagwell went 2-for-2 and drove in a run, Qualls and Springer pitched great, and Astacio got a brief look, although he only faced three batters (Two reached base, the other struck out).
I haven't heard much about Bagwell's new stance this spring. I read somehwere that Garner said he'd be happy if Bagwell hit 10 homers this year, as long as he ket driving in runs. I hope we get a few more dingers than that.
Clemens starts tomorrow night against Atlanta. Let's hope we keep them under double digits.
Old fogies Burba, Franco and Wendell combined to give up 17 runs on Tuesday against our 2000 opening-day starter, Scott Elarton. We lost 21-4. Good thing these games don't count.
Some more bad news: Lidge gave up 2 runs, Burke went 0-for-3, Biggio committed an error at second base, and Orlando Palmeiro actually drove in a run. Hope he doesn't have a good spring and earn some playing time.
Good news (if there is any): Bagwell went 2-for-2 and drove in a run, Qualls and Springer pitched great, and Astacio got a brief look, although he only faced three batters (Two reached base, the other struck out).
I haven't heard much about Bagwell's new stance this spring. I read somehwere that Garner said he'd be happy if Bagwell hit 10 homers this year, as long as he ket driving in runs. I hope we get a few more dingers than that.
Clemens starts tomorrow night against Atlanta. Let's hope we keep them under double digits.
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
I dunno, Andy. I think that I saw that same blurb that you mentioned - Beane wants Chris Burke.
The latest Gammons column has some pretty interesting Astros tidbits:
The Astros keep pestering the Mets about Mike Cameron, but it is looking less and less likely that New York will move Cameron because they have to get a strong corner bat in return, and right now there may not be any on the market." One possibility for Houston is Terrmel Sledge, as Washington is looking for a bopper and will move Sledge and/or Endy Chavez. Right now, if Craig Biggio moves back to second base, as he would like to do, then until Lance Berkman comes back, the 'Stros outfielders are Jason Lane, Willy Taveras (who has temporarily given up switch-hitting), possibly Chris Burke and Orlando Palmeiro.
Houston has four bubble pitchers out of options: Tim Redding, Carlos Hernandez, Peter Munro and Brandon Duckworth. … Oh yes. On Friday, the first four Houston pitchers were Clemens, 42, John Franco, 44, Dave Burba, 38 and youngster Russ Springer, 36.
It's too bad that Biggio is so intent on playing 2nd. I see why Hunsicker may have resigned in protest of the re-signing of Biggio; he's just complicating things now. I'm glad we're still pestering the Mets about Cameron, but if they want a strong corner bat for a guy coming off wrist surgery then fugheddaboutit. The Termell Sledge rumor interests me a lot - here's a 27 year old LH bat who put up a 799 OPS last year during his first big league stint (399 AB's) and can handle all 3 outfield positions. Plus the Nationals GM, Jim Bowden, is awful - he signed Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla to multi-year deals. Maybe two of our "out of options" pitchers could get Sledge in return. Redding and Duckworth for Sledge? Man, I'd love that.
So, in conclusion: don't trade Burke. Biggio needs to suck it up and be an OF or utility guy. Trade for Termell Sledge. Our #5 starters (Redding, Hernandez, Munro, Duckworth) are all pitching terribly at the moment. Luke Scott is ripping the ball. An OF of Biggio / Sledge / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro, with Taveras getting a full year in AAA? My choice for #5 starter (assuming we trade Redding) is probably Carlos Hernandez - we can't send him back to the minors and he still has some potential unlike, say, Pete Munro. I say give him one last look, and if not, maybe Ezequiel Astacio can step in.
The latest Gammons column has some pretty interesting Astros tidbits:
The Astros keep pestering the Mets about Mike Cameron, but it is looking less and less likely that New York will move Cameron because they have to get a strong corner bat in return, and right now there may not be any on the market." One possibility for Houston is Terrmel Sledge, as Washington is looking for a bopper and will move Sledge and/or Endy Chavez. Right now, if Craig Biggio moves back to second base, as he would like to do, then until Lance Berkman comes back, the 'Stros outfielders are Jason Lane, Willy Taveras (who has temporarily given up switch-hitting), possibly Chris Burke and Orlando Palmeiro.
Houston has four bubble pitchers out of options: Tim Redding, Carlos Hernandez, Peter Munro and Brandon Duckworth. … Oh yes. On Friday, the first four Houston pitchers were Clemens, 42, John Franco, 44, Dave Burba, 38 and youngster Russ Springer, 36.
It's too bad that Biggio is so intent on playing 2nd. I see why Hunsicker may have resigned in protest of the re-signing of Biggio; he's just complicating things now. I'm glad we're still pestering the Mets about Cameron, but if they want a strong corner bat for a guy coming off wrist surgery then fugheddaboutit. The Termell Sledge rumor interests me a lot - here's a 27 year old LH bat who put up a 799 OPS last year during his first big league stint (399 AB's) and can handle all 3 outfield positions. Plus the Nationals GM, Jim Bowden, is awful - he signed Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla to multi-year deals. Maybe two of our "out of options" pitchers could get Sledge in return. Redding and Duckworth for Sledge? Man, I'd love that.
So, in conclusion: don't trade Burke. Biggio needs to suck it up and be an OF or utility guy. Trade for Termell Sledge. Our #5 starters (Redding, Hernandez, Munro, Duckworth) are all pitching terribly at the moment. Luke Scott is ripping the ball. An OF of Biggio / Sledge / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro, with Taveras getting a full year in AAA? My choice for #5 starter (assuming we trade Redding) is probably Carlos Hernandez - we can't send him back to the minors and he still has some potential unlike, say, Pete Munro. I say give him one last look, and if not, maybe Ezequiel Astacio can step in.
Monday, March 07, 2005
Billy Beane is apparently enamored with our boy Chris Burke. Apparently he really wanted to take Burke straight out of Tennessee a few years ago, when he broke most of Todd Helton's school records (!). But Beane drafted Crosby instead. Beane usually has a keen eye for talent, especially when it comes to young players.
Would we want to consider a trade with Oakland? They're still trying to get rid of Byrnes, either to the Mets or the Pirates. We could get Cameron in CF and move Biggio to full time 2B. And keep in mind we have another solid middle infield prospect in Brooks Conrad for the future.
Any takers?
Would we want to consider a trade with Oakland? They're still trying to get rid of Byrnes, either to the Mets or the Pirates. We could get Cameron in CF and move Biggio to full time 2B. And keep in mind we have another solid middle infield prospect in Brooks Conrad for the future.
Any takers?
Sunday, March 06, 2005
You know I haven't posted in a while when Drew Sanders gets on my case about it. This is the guy who wrote 2 Tournament of Uber-Toughness updates and then left us all hanging when he got to the semifinals. And HE'S telling me that I need to post more often. Wow.
Anyway, Drew is pretty excited about the Indians this year, with good reason:
Their projected lineup:
Coco Crisp, CF
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Travis Hafner, DH
Juan Gonzalez, RF
Victor Martienz, C
Ben Broussard, 1B
Aaron Boone / Jose Hernandez, 3B
Jody Gerut / Casey Blake, LF
Alex Cora / Jhonny Peralta, 2B
and their projected rotation:
C.C. Sabathia
Kevin Millwood
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee
Scott Elarton
and their bullpen:
Bob Wickman
Bob Howry
David Riske
Rafael Betancourt
Jason Davis
Arthur Rhodes
Scott Sauerbeck
That's a hell of a roster. It's hard to pick against a team with Johan Santana (who Drew apparently thinks was a fluke this year, to which I say ARE YOU INSANE!!??), but I think the Indians might just do it this year. And if they get Martinez / Hafner / Broussard / Peralta / Sabathia / Lee signed to 3 or 4 year deals, watch out for a mid-90's revival of the Indians franchise, when at one time or another they had the following players on offense:
Kenny Lofton
Roberto Alomar (back when he was really good)
Manny Ramirez
Jim Thome
David Justice
Travis Fryman
Richie Sexson
Brian Giles
Sandy Alomar Jr.
probably some other beasts, too, but that's enough.
Not too much Astros news lately. All our possible #5 starters sucked in our first ST game; each gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Yay. Then Roy Oswalt dominated yesterday, and Brandon Backe looked good today, and Jason Lane and Luke Scott homered. I like Scott as a darkhorse to make the team and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. Biggio started at 2B the other day, too, which makes me hurt all over.
I'm still waiting for BP2005. Damn you, Amazon!
Anyway, Drew is pretty excited about the Indians this year, with good reason:
Their projected lineup:
Coco Crisp, CF
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Travis Hafner, DH
Juan Gonzalez, RF
Victor Martienz, C
Ben Broussard, 1B
Aaron Boone / Jose Hernandez, 3B
Jody Gerut / Casey Blake, LF
Alex Cora / Jhonny Peralta, 2B
and their projected rotation:
C.C. Sabathia
Kevin Millwood
Jake Westbrook
Cliff Lee
Scott Elarton
and their bullpen:
Bob Wickman
Bob Howry
David Riske
Rafael Betancourt
Jason Davis
Arthur Rhodes
Scott Sauerbeck
That's a hell of a roster. It's hard to pick against a team with Johan Santana (who Drew apparently thinks was a fluke this year, to which I say ARE YOU INSANE!!??), but I think the Indians might just do it this year. And if they get Martinez / Hafner / Broussard / Peralta / Sabathia / Lee signed to 3 or 4 year deals, watch out for a mid-90's revival of the Indians franchise, when at one time or another they had the following players on offense:
Kenny Lofton
Roberto Alomar (back when he was really good)
Manny Ramirez
Jim Thome
David Justice
Travis Fryman
Richie Sexson
Brian Giles
Sandy Alomar Jr.
probably some other beasts, too, but that's enough.
Not too much Astros news lately. All our possible #5 starters sucked in our first ST game; each gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Yay. Then Roy Oswalt dominated yesterday, and Brandon Backe looked good today, and Jason Lane and Luke Scott homered. I like Scott as a darkhorse to make the team and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. Biggio started at 2B the other day, too, which makes me hurt all over.
I'm still waiting for BP2005. Damn you, Amazon!
Thursday, March 03, 2005
I'm still waiting for my copy of BP2005, even though ThrowsLikeAGirl got her a few days ago. What the heck? I want to read insults about Viz and Ausmus, too. From what I've read BP is also including Most Comparable Players on their Player Cards. Inspired by a recent post by Aaron Gleeman, here is our starting lineup and rotation, based on Most Comparable Players that you might have heard of at that age:
C Bob Boone (Ausmus)
1B Frank Thomas (Bagwell)
2B Chris Burke (not enough playing time for a comp.)
SS Ray Boone (Everett)
3B Matt LeCroy (Ensberg)
RF Tim Salmon / Magglio Ordonez (Berkman)
CF Jason Lane (see Burke note)
LF Lou Whitaker (Biggio)
SP Mike Mussina (Roy Oswalt)
SP Tom Seaver (Roger Clemens)
SP Jack McDowell (Andy Pettitte)
SP Cliff Politte (Brandon Backe)
SP Elmer Dessens (Pete Munro)
CL Todd Jones (Brad Lidge) note: Mariano Rivera is also n that list, so don't freak out yet.
Bench
CI Chris Singleton (Mike Lamb)
MI Rey Sanchez (Jose Vizcaino)
OF Jerry Hairston (Orlando Palmeiro) note: Jerry Hairston's Jr.'s dad
So, we've got the Boone brothers, 2 Hall of Famers in Frank Thomas and Lou Whitaker, an excellent RF in Salmon or Ordonez, and a big front 3 in Mussina, Seaver, and Jack McDowell.
Pretty much what you'd expect, I guess, and it's too bad Bagwell / Biggio / Clemens are so old.
C Bob Boone (Ausmus)
1B Frank Thomas (Bagwell)
2B Chris Burke (not enough playing time for a comp.)
SS Ray Boone (Everett)
3B Matt LeCroy (Ensberg)
RF Tim Salmon / Magglio Ordonez (Berkman)
CF Jason Lane (see Burke note)
LF Lou Whitaker (Biggio)
SP Mike Mussina (Roy Oswalt)
SP Tom Seaver (Roger Clemens)
SP Jack McDowell (Andy Pettitte)
SP Cliff Politte (Brandon Backe)
SP Elmer Dessens (Pete Munro)
CL Todd Jones (Brad Lidge) note: Mariano Rivera is also n that list, so don't freak out yet.
Bench
CI Chris Singleton (Mike Lamb)
MI Rey Sanchez (Jose Vizcaino)
OF Jerry Hairston (Orlando Palmeiro) note: Jerry Hairston's Jr.'s dad
So, we've got the Boone brothers, 2 Hall of Famers in Frank Thomas and Lou Whitaker, an excellent RF in Salmon or Ordonez, and a big front 3 in Mussina, Seaver, and Jack McDowell.
Pretty much what you'd expect, I guess, and it's too bad Bagwell / Biggio / Clemens are so old.
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
From Rotoworld:
Morgan Ensberg said his slow start last season was due in part to an elbow injury. This season, he's healthy, and manager Phil Garner plans to use him in the meat of the order.
"He needs to hit doubles and home runs, because that's the way you drive in runs," Garner said. "We need him to be a big run producer, and he's swinging the bat good this spring." It's not inconceivable that Ensberg could even open the season as Houston's cleanup hitter behind Jeff Bagwell with Lance Berkman injured.
The cleanup spot? Maybe. I like Lane there right now. But we'll see.
Morgan Ensberg said his slow start last season was due in part to an elbow injury. This season, he's healthy, and manager Phil Garner plans to use him in the meat of the order.
"He needs to hit doubles and home runs, because that's the way you drive in runs," Garner said. "We need him to be a big run producer, and he's swinging the bat good this spring." It's not inconceivable that Ensberg could even open the season as Houston's cleanup hitter behind Jeff Bagwell with Lance Berkman injured.
The cleanup spot? Maybe. I like Lane there right now. But we'll see.
Monday, February 28, 2005
Just bought 4 tickets to the Wilco show @ the Orpheum (old concert hall in Flagstaff) on April 27. I'm pumped. Hopefully I'll know some cute girls by then...
Astros news....there's a new (subscriber) article up at Baseball Prospectus, where their main everyday writer, Joe Sheehan, picks his "Up" and "Down" teams over the offseason. His Up team? The Cleveland Indians, led by Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, and an underrated bullpen and some solid prospects. His Down team? The Houston Astros. Sheehan's main reasons why:
On February 28, though, it's hard to see how the Astros can repeat last year's success. They are going to lose a ton of runs from even last year's average attack--seventh in the NL in EqA. Carlos Beltran is gone. Jeff Kent is gone. Their best hitter, Lance Berkman, is going to miss at least a few weeks rehabbing a knee injury. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are a year older. Even in the best-case scenario, where Chris Burke and Jason Lane are allowed to win jobs and both hit to expectations, that just makes up for the losses of Beltran and Kent. At their best, the Astros are carrying Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus and a pitcher. If you have even one more low-OBP hitter in the lineup, it becomes almost impossible to sustain an offense.
The Astros aren't going to make it up on the pitching side. Keeping Roger Clemens around just kept them running in place. They still have the same depth issues as they did a year ago, with a host of injury cases and suspects vying to fill out the rotation behind Clemens and Roy Oswalt and the bullpen in front of Brad Lidge. A healthy Andy Pettitte makes up some of that, but there's still the question of whether two starters can be found from among Brandon Backe, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding, or even a longshot like Ezequiel Astacio.
Last year's playoff run happened because the front end of the Astros' roster included some very dominant players. They're down two stars this year, and the likelihood that Clemens and Lidge can match '04's work is slim. They don't have the depth to make up for that kind of slippage. Not only are the Astros unlikely to return to the postseason, I doubt they can stay in contention.
Ouch. I agree with most of what Sheehan writes; our offense can't reasonably be expected to be even equal to last year's, and barring Pettitte being awesome all year, Backe pitching like he did in Sept / Oct., and Ezequiel Astacio becoming the next Oswalt, I don't see our pitching being that great either. I guess it's time to take an objective look at the Astros; you might not like what you see.
I'll still watch damn near every game, though, and root like hell.
Astros news....there's a new (subscriber) article up at Baseball Prospectus, where their main everyday writer, Joe Sheehan, picks his "Up" and "Down" teams over the offseason. His Up team? The Cleveland Indians, led by Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, and an underrated bullpen and some solid prospects. His Down team? The Houston Astros. Sheehan's main reasons why:
On February 28, though, it's hard to see how the Astros can repeat last year's success. They are going to lose a ton of runs from even last year's average attack--seventh in the NL in EqA. Carlos Beltran is gone. Jeff Kent is gone. Their best hitter, Lance Berkman, is going to miss at least a few weeks rehabbing a knee injury. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are a year older. Even in the best-case scenario, where Chris Burke and Jason Lane are allowed to win jobs and both hit to expectations, that just makes up for the losses of Beltran and Kent. At their best, the Astros are carrying Adam Everett, Brad Ausmus and a pitcher. If you have even one more low-OBP hitter in the lineup, it becomes almost impossible to sustain an offense.
The Astros aren't going to make it up on the pitching side. Keeping Roger Clemens around just kept them running in place. They still have the same depth issues as they did a year ago, with a host of injury cases and suspects vying to fill out the rotation behind Clemens and Roy Oswalt and the bullpen in front of Brad Lidge. A healthy Andy Pettitte makes up some of that, but there's still the question of whether two starters can be found from among Brandon Backe, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding, or even a longshot like Ezequiel Astacio.
Last year's playoff run happened because the front end of the Astros' roster included some very dominant players. They're down two stars this year, and the likelihood that Clemens and Lidge can match '04's work is slim. They don't have the depth to make up for that kind of slippage. Not only are the Astros unlikely to return to the postseason, I doubt they can stay in contention.
Ouch. I agree with most of what Sheehan writes; our offense can't reasonably be expected to be even equal to last year's, and barring Pettitte being awesome all year, Backe pitching like he did in Sept / Oct., and Ezequiel Astacio becoming the next Oswalt, I don't see our pitching being that great either. I guess it's time to take an objective look at the Astros; you might not like what you see.
I'll still watch damn near every game, though, and root like hell.
Friday, February 25, 2005
TGIF. Don't have too many plans for the weekend; it's supposed to get all the way up to 41 degrees on Sunday, so I might go hiking or something.
Mike Lamb brought 5 gloves with him to spring training: 3B, 2B, 1B, C, and OF. I find this amusing. Talk about a Renaissance man. Can you imagine if Lamb could be a not-horrible defensive catcher? Awwwwww yeah.
Craig Biggio has said he'd like to move back to 2nd, but I honestly think that he would be pretty bad defensively there. I don't care if he played 2nd for 10 years, he's 39, and he didn't have good defensive numbers 3 years ago. So Burke damn well better win that job. Hey, maybe Biggio wants to move back to catcher?
JT says the Tigers don't really need a 3B or a 2B, since they've got Brandon Inge and Omar Infante. I think he's right, and I also think Dave Dombrowski is a moron, so we might just be able to give them Tim Redding and some barbeque and call it even.
We're getting a co-ed softball league together in the next few weeks, and I mentioned it to my class and the hottest girl in the class wants to play. Maybe I can set her up with one of my friends - it's the right thing to do.
One more class to go, then I'm done for the week. By the way, thanks for the MLB.TV info, Chen, I think I'm going to do the All Access Option pretty soon.
Mike Lamb brought 5 gloves with him to spring training: 3B, 2B, 1B, C, and OF. I find this amusing. Talk about a Renaissance man. Can you imagine if Lamb could be a not-horrible defensive catcher? Awwwwww yeah.
Craig Biggio has said he'd like to move back to 2nd, but I honestly think that he would be pretty bad defensively there. I don't care if he played 2nd for 10 years, he's 39, and he didn't have good defensive numbers 3 years ago. So Burke damn well better win that job. Hey, maybe Biggio wants to move back to catcher?
JT says the Tigers don't really need a 3B or a 2B, since they've got Brandon Inge and Omar Infante. I think he's right, and I also think Dave Dombrowski is a moron, so we might just be able to give them Tim Redding and some barbeque and call it even.
We're getting a co-ed softball league together in the next few weeks, and I mentioned it to my class and the hottest girl in the class wants to play. Maybe I can set her up with one of my friends - it's the right thing to do.
One more class to go, then I'm done for the week. By the way, thanks for the MLB.TV info, Chen, I think I'm going to do the All Access Option pretty soon.
I like it, Andres. The Mets want Urbina, and the Tigers need either a 3B or a 2B. I'll stick with your Lamb-and-Redding proposal for now, with the possibility of throwing in Brooks Conrad or Brandon Duckworth or whoever. Getting Cameron without giving up Burke would be a steal. Alternatively, if you decide to give up Burke, hopefully you could trade for Polanco.
Biggest bargains of the offseason:
Nomar: 1/8
Woody Williams: 1/4 (I think)
Chris Hammond: 1/750K
Johan Santana: 4/48
Wade Miller: 1/3.5
Richard Hidalgo: 1/5
Notice a trend? Most of those 'best deals' are short deals for players likely to bounce back. And any deal where you pay Johan Santana less than Troy Glaus or Richie Sexson or Magglio Ordonez has to go on there.
Biggest bargains of the offseason:
Nomar: 1/8
Woody Williams: 1/4 (I think)
Chris Hammond: 1/750K
Johan Santana: 4/48
Wade Miller: 1/3.5
Richard Hidalgo: 1/5
Notice a trend? Most of those 'best deals' are short deals for players likely to bounce back. And any deal where you pay Johan Santana less than Troy Glaus or Richie Sexson or Magglio Ordonez has to go on there.
Per Rotoworld.com, The Mets are interested in Ugueth Urbina, and are willing to ship away Mike Cameron for him. Have we found our third team in Detroit?
The Tigers already have Fernando Vina at second, and their outfield of Magglio, Alex Sanchez, Rondell White, Bobby Higginson and Craig Monroe is already crowded. They seem to be in a win-now mentality, so they probably don't want too many prospects in exchange for losing their premiere closer. Unless the plan on using Carlos Guillen at third, they'll a three-bagger. And they always need pitching. This won't work, but how about Lamb and Redding? Maybe throw in a Luke Scott as well.
Quick poll: What's been the best bargain of the offseason so far, for any team? I might say Nomar for $8 million with incentives. That was damn good.
The Tigers already have Fernando Vina at second, and their outfield of Magglio, Alex Sanchez, Rondell White, Bobby Higginson and Craig Monroe is already crowded. They seem to be in a win-now mentality, so they probably don't want too many prospects in exchange for losing their premiere closer. Unless the plan on using Carlos Guillen at third, they'll a three-bagger. And they always need pitching. This won't work, but how about Lamb and Redding? Maybe throw in a Luke Scott as well.
Quick poll: What's been the best bargain of the offseason so far, for any team? I might say Nomar for $8 million with incentives. That was damn good.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
According to the Houston Chronicle, Lance Berkman has rejected 3 / 36 and 4 / 48 offers and instead has basically demanded 5 / 15-17 per year. Well, that's too bad, as 3/36 and 4 / 48 are almost exactly what I had hoped we would offer. But then Magglio Ordonez just had to go sign that crazy contract with Detroit, and now Berkman (correctly) wants as much as him. With so much deferred money going to Pettitte, Bagwell, and Oswalt next year, it might be a little tricky to give Lance 5 / 75 or thereabouts. In addition, we HAVE to see how he bounces back from his knee injury before we go throwing gobs of money at him.
Bad choice of words yesterday; I shouldn't have said "my dream world". What I was getting at is if you get desperate and trade for Mike Cameron by getting rid of Chris Burke, you could probably get Polanco from the Phillies. But it didn't come out quite right. And I still like saying Byung-Hyun Kim, so we should trade for him too.
Question about MLB.TV : does anyone know if it has the same properties as TiVo? That is, if I miss the game, can I come back and watch it later that night or something? Or just the Condensed Game?
Time to go toss the ol' baseball around.
Bad choice of words yesterday; I shouldn't have said "my dream world". What I was getting at is if you get desperate and trade for Mike Cameron by getting rid of Chris Burke, you could probably get Polanco from the Phillies. But it didn't come out quite right. And I still like saying Byung-Hyun Kim, so we should trade for him too.
Question about MLB.TV : does anyone know if it has the same properties as TiVo? That is, if I miss the game, can I come back and watch it later that night or something? Or just the Condensed Game?
Time to go toss the ol' baseball around.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
My dream world:
Astros trade Taylor Bucholz to the Phillies for Placido Polanco.
Astros trade Jason Lane to the Mets for Mike Cameron.
Astros trade Brooks Conrad and Luke Scott to the Red Sox for BH Kim.
Ezequiel Astacio starts off in a middle relief role, excels, and becomes the 5th starter when the Astros sell high on Brandon Backe by trading him to the Reds for Austin Kearns.
Look, I know our payroll could never support that, and it seems crazy to trade away all those prospects, but here it is:
Prospects are never, ever, a sure thing, and every player on the right side of those transactions has had success in the major leagues. Bucholz struggled last year; maybe the Phillies want him back. Lane might be pretty good, but he's 28 - his best years might already be behind him. In addition all of the "right hand" guys appear to be undervalued by their current teams. Polanco might be the best overall defensive infielder in baseball, and he puts up a .780 OPS. Mike Cameron slugged .479 with a wrist injury last year and has consistently been one of the best defensive CF's in baseball for the last 5 years. BH Kim is 25 and has averaged over a K / inning for his career. Austin Kearns was a top prospect, put up a .907 OPS his rookie year, and just needs to get healthy.
AND all of these players don't really have a good fit with their current teams - Polanco and Cameron want to be starters at their respective positions, Kim just needs a change of scenery and a regular starting job, and Kearns is in a crowded OF in Cincy.
I have no idea how all of that will work out - Polanco wants to start, but we have Burke / Everett, Cameron might be hurt for the first month (along with Berkman), Kim might piss all the good ol' boys off with the occasional one-finger-salute, and Kearns might be hurt all year, but that's how you win as a general manager - you see what's undervalued, and you go after it. I'm all for rebuilding, but the entire premise of statistical analysis is not OBP and OPS and UZR, it's buying high and selling low, it's looking for market inefficiencies, and that is EXACTLY what Polanco, Cameron, Kim and Kearns are. I'm sure we won't do any of those moves, but I can still dream.
Astros trade Taylor Bucholz to the Phillies for Placido Polanco.
Astros trade Jason Lane to the Mets for Mike Cameron.
Astros trade Brooks Conrad and Luke Scott to the Red Sox for BH Kim.
Ezequiel Astacio starts off in a middle relief role, excels, and becomes the 5th starter when the Astros sell high on Brandon Backe by trading him to the Reds for Austin Kearns.
Look, I know our payroll could never support that, and it seems crazy to trade away all those prospects, but here it is:
Prospects are never, ever, a sure thing, and every player on the right side of those transactions has had success in the major leagues. Bucholz struggled last year; maybe the Phillies want him back. Lane might be pretty good, but he's 28 - his best years might already be behind him. In addition all of the "right hand" guys appear to be undervalued by their current teams. Polanco might be the best overall defensive infielder in baseball, and he puts up a .780 OPS. Mike Cameron slugged .479 with a wrist injury last year and has consistently been one of the best defensive CF's in baseball for the last 5 years. BH Kim is 25 and has averaged over a K / inning for his career. Austin Kearns was a top prospect, put up a .907 OPS his rookie year, and just needs to get healthy.
AND all of these players don't really have a good fit with their current teams - Polanco and Cameron want to be starters at their respective positions, Kim just needs a change of scenery and a regular starting job, and Kearns is in a crowded OF in Cincy.
I have no idea how all of that will work out - Polanco wants to start, but we have Burke / Everett, Cameron might be hurt for the first month (along with Berkman), Kim might piss all the good ol' boys off with the occasional one-finger-salute, and Kearns might be hurt all year, but that's how you win as a general manager - you see what's undervalued, and you go after it. I'm all for rebuilding, but the entire premise of statistical analysis is not OBP and OPS and UZR, it's buying high and selling low, it's looking for market inefficiencies, and that is EXACTLY what Polanco, Cameron, Kim and Kearns are. I'm sure we won't do any of those moves, but I can still dream.
Since I now live in friggin' Arizona, I can't watch any Astros games unless they're on national TV (in which case the Astros tend to suck) or Baseball Tonight (in which case I have to look at John Kruk's fat face and listen to Harold Reynolds talk about team chemistry). No thanks.
So MLB.TV, here I come. It's 'only' 79.95 for the whole year, and I'll be able to watch every Astros game (with the exception of when they play at Arizona), so I guess that's worth it. If any of you guys have ever subscribed to MLB.TV, tell me what you think.
Oh, and they have a free archive of the Astros top plays in 2004. Highlights:
Jeff Kent's Game 5 walk-off bomb in the NLCS. Goosebumps, baby. Goosebumps.
Astros turn a triple play on the Phillies and come back from 7-2 to win.
Pretty much anything invovling Carlos Beltran in the playoffs. Man, I'm gonna miss that guy.
I'm a little more down on Mike Cameron than I was yesterday. I don't like it, but starting with Biggio / Taveras / Lane and then moving to Biggio / Lane / Berkman is better than having to give up Burke, and the Mets don't seem to want to move Cameron for much less than a top prospect. So screw that.
I still like BH Kim, though. Better than Munro or Redding or some crap.
Speaking of Tim Redding, he's essentially said that he expects to get the 5th starter's spot or else he wants to be traded. I say just trade his ass now, because even in his best year, 2003, his K rate wasn't that great and he walked too many guys. Trade him to some team desperate for pitching and with an OF to spare (Rangers, Reds, Devil Rays).
So MLB.TV, here I come. It's 'only' 79.95 for the whole year, and I'll be able to watch every Astros game (with the exception of when they play at Arizona), so I guess that's worth it. If any of you guys have ever subscribed to MLB.TV, tell me what you think.
Oh, and they have a free archive of the Astros top plays in 2004. Highlights:
Jeff Kent's Game 5 walk-off bomb in the NLCS. Goosebumps, baby. Goosebumps.
Astros turn a triple play on the Phillies and come back from 7-2 to win.
Pretty much anything invovling Carlos Beltran in the playoffs. Man, I'm gonna miss that guy.
I'm a little more down on Mike Cameron than I was yesterday. I don't like it, but starting with Biggio / Taveras / Lane and then moving to Biggio / Lane / Berkman is better than having to give up Burke, and the Mets don't seem to want to move Cameron for much less than a top prospect. So screw that.
I still like BH Kim, though. Better than Munro or Redding or some crap.
Speaking of Tim Redding, he's essentially said that he expects to get the 5th starter's spot or else he wants to be traded. I say just trade his ass now, because even in his best year, 2003, his K rate wasn't that great and he walked too many guys. Trade him to some team desperate for pitching and with an OF to spare (Rangers, Reds, Devil Rays).
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