Some interesting players have been released in the last few days:
C Bobby Estalella
RP Gabe White
P/OF Brooks Kieschnick
No, you didn't misread that last position - Kieschnik is both an outfielder and LH hitter (.248 / .315 / .444 in 306 career AB's) and a RH pitcher (96.0 IP, 110 H, 11 HR, 26 BB, 67 K, 4.59 ERA career) For his career, that's a 93 OPS+ (100 is league average) and 93 ERA+ (100 is league average, again). How cool is that? So a 33 year old who's a slightly below average hitter and a slightly below average pitcher? Why the heck would you want someone like that?
VARIETY. Why carry both a 5th OF and a 6th or 7th reliever when you could just carry Kieschnick? Put another way, we could sign Kiescnick, release John Franco and Jose Vizcaino, and bring up Brooks Conrad, or Ezequiel Astacio and be a MUCH better team for it. Kieschnick's decency at both hitting and pitching allow you to carry one extra hitter or pitcher, essentially. I think he'd be an intersting pickup, and he's a local guy (went to the University of Texas). What's to lose?
Estalella is 30 and has bounced around for a few years now, mostly because of his career .216 BA. But his career line is .216 / .315 / .440, good for a 755 OPS. The last time Brad Ausmus put up a 755 OPS was 1999, and his highest SLG% for any year is .415. Again, what do you have to lose? Sign him to a minor league deal, and let him compete with Quintero next year.
Gabe White was awful last year (6.94 combined ERA with NY and CIN) but he had put up a 2.98 ERA and a 4.05 ERA the 2 previous years, is 'only' 32 (Franco is 44), throws strikes (30 BB in his last 160.2 IP), and has put up a 3 year line of .248 / .277 / .419 against lefties (696 OPS). John Franco, by comparison, has a 3 year OPS of 637 allowed against lefties. Ok, Franco's better, but he's a lot older and probably more expensive and White can occasionaly get a righty out, so it might be worth looking into.
Also, the White Sox are already looking to trade A.J. Pierzynski. Man, that guy must be a total asshole. Nevertheless, he'd be a solid upgrade over Brad Ausmus at C, or heck, he'd make a decent backup catcher over slower-than-molasses Raul Chavez. He'd probably piss the entire clubhouse off, which would be fun to watch. Remember Mitch Meluskey? Well, imagine the fireworks with this guy.
Ok, that's all. None of these moves are likely, but they'd all be cheap, and if just one of them worked out, it would probably be worth it. I like the Kieschnick move the best - you can't underestimate versatility, particularly in the National League.
Sunday, April 03, 2005
The Astros finalized their 25-man roster today - the final 3 cuts were Mike Gallo, Ezequiel Astacio, and Humberto Quintero. Thus, I present to you your 2005 Opening Day Houston Astros roster:
Pitchers (11): Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens, Backe, Duckworth, Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Springer, Franco
Catchers (2): Ausmus, Chavez
Infielders (8): Bagwell, Biggio, Everett, Ensberg, Burke, Bruntlett, Vizcaino, Lamb
Outfielders (4): Scott, Taveras, Lane, Palmeiro
DL (15-day): Berkman
I know the 'official' roster has Biggio listed as an OF, but I think it's clear he's going to start at 2B by now, and our 5th OF (though I hope this never happens) would probably be a mix of Biggio / Bruntlett / Burke / Lamb...yow. That's some bad defense.
Don't get too worked up about Astacio being sent down (by the way, I watched the 2nd half of the game last night, and while the Astros bats were shut out, I saw Astacio for the first time, and he looked GOOD - nice, easy motion, good fastball, good off-speed stuff.), because the Astros won't need a 5th starter until April 19, I believe, so that should give Astacio time for a few starts at AAA, and Duckworth can work in a middle relief / spot starter role, and winner takes all when we need a 5th starter. I'm hoping Astacio does well but stays in AAA until a late call-up in August / September for a few starts; that way, he doesn't lose a year of eligibility towards free agency and he's set up well for next year.
So I can't really argue with any of the roster moves. I'm glad that Burke / Taveras / Scott all made the team, and I hope they all get plenty of playing time before Berkman gets back. If you had told me at the start of this offseason that this would be our roster, I would have been ok with it EXCEPT for the back of our bullpen. Russ Springer and John Franco????? Yeah, those Turk Wendell and Dave Burba signings worked out really well, huh? Man, I can't believe we coudln't sign one more solid reliever. Chris Hammond / Osuna / Steve Reed / Jeff Nelson....gah. I hope Springer and Franco make me eat my words, but one more solid reliever really would have helped.
One thing we have plenty of is depth. Bruntlett has played every position but C, Viz can handle all 4 infield spots, Burke can play 2B / SS / OF, and Lamb can play 3B / 1B / OF. That doesn't mean those guys are GOOD at every position, but they can play there. And Burke / Lamb / Palmeiro / Viz / Bruntlett is actually a pretty good group of pinch-hitters - Burke and Lamb could both be regulars, Palmeiro posts a respectable OBP, Viz can switch hit and GIDP, and Bruntlett has a little power. The deep bench is important, particularly for a team that looks like it's going to start Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and a pitcher in the batting lineup. This means a LOT of pressure is going to be on Biggio / Bagwell / Lane / Ensberg / Scott, particularly without Berkman. Those 5 guys need to get off to a hot offensive start, or we could find ourselves out of contention before the month is up.
The only question left is: who goes down when Berkman comes back? Well, it probably comes down to Taveras, Scott, and Burke. In my opinion it absolutely CANNOT be Chris Burke - the guy tore up AAA last year, and needs to play. Hopefully one of Taveras / Scott is clearly better than the other, so it's not a tough decision, but if Taveras gets sent down, that makes our OF Scott / Lane / Berkman, which sounds pretty damn bad defensively, so I think Scott needs to outplay Taveras by a pretty good margin, because Taveras would BY FAR the best fit in CF.
Since we've got our roster, we can pretty safely predict our OD lineup as:
Adam Everett
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
Morgan Ensberg
Jason Lane
Luke Scott
Willy Taveras
Brad Ausmus
Roy Oswalt
That's...not a lot of offense. With that same roster, I would probably go for
Biggio
Ensberg
Bagwell
Lane
Scott
Everett
Taveras
Ausmus
Oswalt
(that might be the worst 6-9 ever)
but it really doesn't matter much over the long run. What DOES matter is we have 4 guys in that lineup who will almost certainly not have a .350 OBP: Everett, Biggio, Taveras, Ausmus. We need Berkman back, and fast, and we need 2003 Ensberg and a big year from Lane.
Well, that's about it. My overall thoughts on the offseason are we blew it with the Beltran 'deadline' (should have set it a month earlier so it didn't cost up every other good FA), a soft market for relievers, but the deals to Clemens / Oswalt / Berkman were solid.
Pitchers (11): Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens, Backe, Duckworth, Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Springer, Franco
Catchers (2): Ausmus, Chavez
Infielders (8): Bagwell, Biggio, Everett, Ensberg, Burke, Bruntlett, Vizcaino, Lamb
Outfielders (4): Scott, Taveras, Lane, Palmeiro
DL (15-day): Berkman
I know the 'official' roster has Biggio listed as an OF, but I think it's clear he's going to start at 2B by now, and our 5th OF (though I hope this never happens) would probably be a mix of Biggio / Bruntlett / Burke / Lamb...yow. That's some bad defense.
Don't get too worked up about Astacio being sent down (by the way, I watched the 2nd half of the game last night, and while the Astros bats were shut out, I saw Astacio for the first time, and he looked GOOD - nice, easy motion, good fastball, good off-speed stuff.), because the Astros won't need a 5th starter until April 19, I believe, so that should give Astacio time for a few starts at AAA, and Duckworth can work in a middle relief / spot starter role, and winner takes all when we need a 5th starter. I'm hoping Astacio does well but stays in AAA until a late call-up in August / September for a few starts; that way, he doesn't lose a year of eligibility towards free agency and he's set up well for next year.
So I can't really argue with any of the roster moves. I'm glad that Burke / Taveras / Scott all made the team, and I hope they all get plenty of playing time before Berkman gets back. If you had told me at the start of this offseason that this would be our roster, I would have been ok with it EXCEPT for the back of our bullpen. Russ Springer and John Franco????? Yeah, those Turk Wendell and Dave Burba signings worked out really well, huh? Man, I can't believe we coudln't sign one more solid reliever. Chris Hammond / Osuna / Steve Reed / Jeff Nelson....gah. I hope Springer and Franco make me eat my words, but one more solid reliever really would have helped.
One thing we have plenty of is depth. Bruntlett has played every position but C, Viz can handle all 4 infield spots, Burke can play 2B / SS / OF, and Lamb can play 3B / 1B / OF. That doesn't mean those guys are GOOD at every position, but they can play there. And Burke / Lamb / Palmeiro / Viz / Bruntlett is actually a pretty good group of pinch-hitters - Burke and Lamb could both be regulars, Palmeiro posts a respectable OBP, Viz can switch hit and GIDP, and Bruntlett has a little power. The deep bench is important, particularly for a team that looks like it's going to start Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and a pitcher in the batting lineup. This means a LOT of pressure is going to be on Biggio / Bagwell / Lane / Ensberg / Scott, particularly without Berkman. Those 5 guys need to get off to a hot offensive start, or we could find ourselves out of contention before the month is up.
The only question left is: who goes down when Berkman comes back? Well, it probably comes down to Taveras, Scott, and Burke. In my opinion it absolutely CANNOT be Chris Burke - the guy tore up AAA last year, and needs to play. Hopefully one of Taveras / Scott is clearly better than the other, so it's not a tough decision, but if Taveras gets sent down, that makes our OF Scott / Lane / Berkman, which sounds pretty damn bad defensively, so I think Scott needs to outplay Taveras by a pretty good margin, because Taveras would BY FAR the best fit in CF.
Since we've got our roster, we can pretty safely predict our OD lineup as:
Adam Everett
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
Morgan Ensberg
Jason Lane
Luke Scott
Willy Taveras
Brad Ausmus
Roy Oswalt
That's...not a lot of offense. With that same roster, I would probably go for
Biggio
Ensberg
Bagwell
Lane
Scott
Everett
Taveras
Ausmus
Oswalt
(that might be the worst 6-9 ever)
but it really doesn't matter much over the long run. What DOES matter is we have 4 guys in that lineup who will almost certainly not have a .350 OBP: Everett, Biggio, Taveras, Ausmus. We need Berkman back, and fast, and we need 2003 Ensberg and a big year from Lane.
Well, that's about it. My overall thoughts on the offseason are we blew it with the Beltran 'deadline' (should have set it a month earlier so it didn't cost up every other good FA), a soft market for relievers, but the deals to Clemens / Oswalt / Berkman were solid.
Friday, April 01, 2005
I'd like to talk about baseball today. I really would. But I can't. Here's why:
About 5pm last night, I decided to play a 50-dollar entry fee poker tournament at Party Poker. I didn't have much planned for the night, and I need a break from 'limit' games. So I sign up, along with 419 other people, and start playing with 800 chips. I'm doing decently well when I get a call from the math lab that I work at. They need me to come in to proctor a make-up test for one of my students. DAMN! I give JT a call, hoping he can play the tournament for me, but he's not there. So I figure, what the heck, I'll just go all-in next hand, 'cause I have to go. So I go all in with Q10 of diamonds. Two guys call. One has AK. One has JJ. A queen comes on the flop. I triple up. I can't make this stuff up, I swear. Only then do I realize I can click on 'away' and it will just post my blinds for me, so I'll stay in the tourney. I finally reach JT as I'm driving to the lab, and he agrees to play for me until I get back (basically sacrificing a fantasy baseball draft to do so.) At this point I have about 1400 chips.
While I'm in the lab my roommate Mike calls, and basically orders me to go sake-bombing with him. I try and argue, but to no avail. JT calls me every 10 mins or so for an update - he doubles up with 99 vs. 68, then takes a bad beat after having the nut straight with AK (the board pairs on the river, giving an all-in guy a full house), then doubles up again, I think.
Finally I get home, and take over with about 4100 in chips. The 2nd hand I play I have 99, and double up when the flop comes 743 and some guy with AK pushes all-in. Then I don't get any decent hands for about 30 mins to an hour, putting me down to around 5600 in chips. Todd's also started watching me and giving me occasional advice (along with JT) on IM. Then I win a few hands, and I'm at right around 17000 or so with the blinds getting pretty rough (maybe 800/1600 or 1000 /2000) when the following hand happens. I have 77 UTG (this means I'm the first to act - the blinds are to my right). I raise to about 5000, I think, and everyone folds....until the small blind, one of the chip leaders, raises to 20,000, easily enough to put me all-in. I think...and think...and think. JT is unsure - Todd says call. I think it's probably a coin flip situation, meaning he has two overcards: AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. But if he has a higher pair, I'm a huge underdog. I finally decide to call based on Todd's advice and the fact that I've already put in about 1/3 of my stack. My opponent flips over AK, and my 77 holds up. I double up to about 35K!
Then I play pretty tight for a while again, as it's getting close to the final table (maybe 20 guys left or so). Then I have 88 in middle position, raise to around 10000 or so (I think the blinds were 1500/3000, maybe 2000/4000 at this point), get called by the guy immediately to my left, then the big blind(a very loose and aggressive player) raises to 17000. I call, thinking of pot odds, and so does the guy on my left. The flop comes 227, with 2 diamonds. In other words, the perfect flop for me, since I've almost surely got the best hand, unless someone has a pocket pair higher than 88 (unlikely), or a 2 (even more unlikely) or 77 (no WAY). So I go all in for the rest of my chips. The guy on my left RAISES to around 50K. The big blind folds, and the raiser flips over A6 of diamonds! So he went all-in on just a draw, although a pretty good draw. But no ace and no diamonds come, and I double up to around 80,000! Huge pot for me.
Then I play pretty tight, and eventually (it takes a long time) we get down to the final table, the last 10 players. I'm either the chip leader or close to it - I can't exactly remember. I don't get many good hands for a long time, but a few other guys get knocked out, and it gets down to 5 players or so. Then I knock a guy out when I go all-in with AQ and he calls with A5. See ya. Then it gets down to 3, and the more dangerous opponent gets knocked out by a tight but not-aggressive player on a KK (dangerous player) vs. AA (tight player) hand. Remember this.
So now it's heads up, me vs. a guy that I'm pretty sure I can beat, although he has me outchipped around 280,000 to 140,000. We battle back and forth a bit, and then I'm dealt AA in the big blind. He minimum raises to 16,000 (blinds are 4K / 8K at this point). I raise to 50,000. He goes all-in!! I take a little while, savoring the moment, and then call. He flips over KK!! Tough luck for him, but no K comes, and I double up, and am now in a commanding chip lead, around 350,000 to 60,000. We go back-and-forth a bit, then I put him all-in with AJ, he calls with K6, and he hits a straight on the river - but I hit a flush on the river! So, in summary:
50+5 dollar entry fee
420 entrants
1st place pays $5250.
So I went from trying to leave this tournament to winning the whole thing, and making a cool $5200 in the process. After paying JT (after all, he did play for me for a while) and Todd (for the advice, especially on the 77 hand), I shouldn't have to worry about rent for a little while.
Anyway, I was pretty happy, and I still can't completely believe it. Gotta go teach - thanks again to everyone that helped out. Later.
About 5pm last night, I decided to play a 50-dollar entry fee poker tournament at Party Poker. I didn't have much planned for the night, and I need a break from 'limit' games. So I sign up, along with 419 other people, and start playing with 800 chips. I'm doing decently well when I get a call from the math lab that I work at. They need me to come in to proctor a make-up test for one of my students. DAMN! I give JT a call, hoping he can play the tournament for me, but he's not there. So I figure, what the heck, I'll just go all-in next hand, 'cause I have to go. So I go all in with Q10 of diamonds. Two guys call. One has AK. One has JJ. A queen comes on the flop. I triple up. I can't make this stuff up, I swear. Only then do I realize I can click on 'away' and it will just post my blinds for me, so I'll stay in the tourney. I finally reach JT as I'm driving to the lab, and he agrees to play for me until I get back (basically sacrificing a fantasy baseball draft to do so.) At this point I have about 1400 chips.
While I'm in the lab my roommate Mike calls, and basically orders me to go sake-bombing with him. I try and argue, but to no avail. JT calls me every 10 mins or so for an update - he doubles up with 99 vs. 68, then takes a bad beat after having the nut straight with AK (the board pairs on the river, giving an all-in guy a full house), then doubles up again, I think.
Finally I get home, and take over with about 4100 in chips. The 2nd hand I play I have 99, and double up when the flop comes 743 and some guy with AK pushes all-in. Then I don't get any decent hands for about 30 mins to an hour, putting me down to around 5600 in chips. Todd's also started watching me and giving me occasional advice (along with JT) on IM. Then I win a few hands, and I'm at right around 17000 or so with the blinds getting pretty rough (maybe 800/1600 or 1000 /2000) when the following hand happens. I have 77 UTG (this means I'm the first to act - the blinds are to my right). I raise to about 5000, I think, and everyone folds....until the small blind, one of the chip leaders, raises to 20,000, easily enough to put me all-in. I think...and think...and think. JT is unsure - Todd says call. I think it's probably a coin flip situation, meaning he has two overcards: AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. But if he has a higher pair, I'm a huge underdog. I finally decide to call based on Todd's advice and the fact that I've already put in about 1/3 of my stack. My opponent flips over AK, and my 77 holds up. I double up to about 35K!
Then I play pretty tight for a while again, as it's getting close to the final table (maybe 20 guys left or so). Then I have 88 in middle position, raise to around 10000 or so (I think the blinds were 1500/3000, maybe 2000/4000 at this point), get called by the guy immediately to my left, then the big blind(a very loose and aggressive player) raises to 17000. I call, thinking of pot odds, and so does the guy on my left. The flop comes 227, with 2 diamonds. In other words, the perfect flop for me, since I've almost surely got the best hand, unless someone has a pocket pair higher than 88 (unlikely), or a 2 (even more unlikely) or 77 (no WAY). So I go all in for the rest of my chips. The guy on my left RAISES to around 50K. The big blind folds, and the raiser flips over A6 of diamonds! So he went all-in on just a draw, although a pretty good draw. But no ace and no diamonds come, and I double up to around 80,000! Huge pot for me.
Then I play pretty tight, and eventually (it takes a long time) we get down to the final table, the last 10 players. I'm either the chip leader or close to it - I can't exactly remember. I don't get many good hands for a long time, but a few other guys get knocked out, and it gets down to 5 players or so. Then I knock a guy out when I go all-in with AQ and he calls with A5. See ya. Then it gets down to 3, and the more dangerous opponent gets knocked out by a tight but not-aggressive player on a KK (dangerous player) vs. AA (tight player) hand. Remember this.
So now it's heads up, me vs. a guy that I'm pretty sure I can beat, although he has me outchipped around 280,000 to 140,000. We battle back and forth a bit, and then I'm dealt AA in the big blind. He minimum raises to 16,000 (blinds are 4K / 8K at this point). I raise to 50,000. He goes all-in!! I take a little while, savoring the moment, and then call. He flips over KK!! Tough luck for him, but no K comes, and I double up, and am now in a commanding chip lead, around 350,000 to 60,000. We go back-and-forth a bit, then I put him all-in with AJ, he calls with K6, and he hits a straight on the river - but I hit a flush on the river! So, in summary:
50+5 dollar entry fee
420 entrants
1st place pays $5250.
So I went from trying to leave this tournament to winning the whole thing, and making a cool $5200 in the process. After paying JT (after all, he did play for me for a while) and Todd (for the advice, especially on the 77 hand), I shouldn't have to worry about rent for a little while.
Anyway, I was pretty happy, and I still can't completely believe it. Gotta go teach - thanks again to everyone that helped out. Later.
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Phil Garner was interviewed by Tom Verducci in Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview this week. When asked to define the perfect number 2 hitter, Garner had this to say: "What I'm looking for in my number 1 and 2 hitters are guys who can get on base. I'm looking for guys at least in the .350 to .360 range for on-base percentage."
This is a good attitude to have. You don't have to be Billy Beane to recognize how important OBP really is. Now let's hope Garner backs up his words by keeping our best hitters toward the top of the lineup. If Everett can't produce at the two-spot, I hope he inserts Ensberg there. Better still, let's hope A.E. can post a .350 OBP so Ensberg can drive in more runs in the five- or six-spot.
Garner also had this to say about the cleanup spot: "You want a guy who'll hit 25 home runs or better. On-base percentage is not as critical. Generally, you get on base to get into scoring position. But the 4 hitter should be in scoring position every time he comes to bat."
I'm not sure if that last sentence makes any sense or not, but Garner isn't saying much here. I wonder if the 25 home runs were any reference to Bagwell's decline. Garner earlier this Spring said he'd be fine if Bags only hit 15 this year, as long as he kept driving in runs. I anticipate at least 25 this year for Bagwell, although I also expect his average to hover in the .270s. I wonder how his new stance is working out?
Jack — I agree that the Astros need to consider the future. Berkman, Oswalt, Lidge, Burke, Taveras, Ensberg, Lane, Everett are a strong starting cast. But what's the big deal about sending Burke back to AAA. We all know he's going to be the second baseman of the future anyway, so why not give him even more time to develop and work out the kinks before he plays full time? (This is more of a Devil's Advocate than a real argument.)
This is a good attitude to have. You don't have to be Billy Beane to recognize how important OBP really is. Now let's hope Garner backs up his words by keeping our best hitters toward the top of the lineup. If Everett can't produce at the two-spot, I hope he inserts Ensberg there. Better still, let's hope A.E. can post a .350 OBP so Ensberg can drive in more runs in the five- or six-spot.
Garner also had this to say about the cleanup spot: "You want a guy who'll hit 25 home runs or better. On-base percentage is not as critical. Generally, you get on base to get into scoring position. But the 4 hitter should be in scoring position every time he comes to bat."
I'm not sure if that last sentence makes any sense or not, but Garner isn't saying much here. I wonder if the 25 home runs were any reference to Bagwell's decline. Garner earlier this Spring said he'd be fine if Bags only hit 15 this year, as long as he kept driving in runs. I anticipate at least 25 this year for Bagwell, although I also expect his average to hover in the .270s. I wonder how his new stance is working out?
Jack — I agree that the Astros need to consider the future. Berkman, Oswalt, Lidge, Burke, Taveras, Ensberg, Lane, Everett are a strong starting cast. But what's the big deal about sending Burke back to AAA. We all know he's going to be the second baseman of the future anyway, so why not give him even more time to develop and work out the kinks before he plays full time? (This is more of a Devil's Advocate than a real argument.)
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
Baseball Prospectus 2005, my favorite baseball annual, was waiting on my doorstep when I got home yesterday. I flipped to the Astros section, and was not surprised to find that their analysis was not positive. They started by praising the Astros 'going for it' with the Beltran trade, and highlighted our 9th inning comeback against the Expos as a 'turning point' of the season.
Then:
"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...
The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...
One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...
This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...
But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...
Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...
The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."
Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.
BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:
Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.
Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.
Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.
Brooks Conrad: It's worth mentioning that PECOTA sees better things in 2005 for Conrad that it does for Burke, with his power and walks carrying the day.
Jason Lane: Career .280 / .351 / .526 in 263 PA's. He's been a better baseball player than Craig Biggio for three years now. Lane can rake, and would put up All-Star numbers if left alone to play.
Luke Scott: A throw-in in the Willy Taveras trade, Scott gets in here because of a big half-season at Round Rock. He doesn't bring much to the table other than his bat.
Todd Self: Self is just a marginal prospect, but his plate discipline is real and he could be good for 40 doubles and 15 homers through his peak. A Mark Grace / Wally Joyner hitter with average defense will let you spend money elsewhere.
Willy Taveras: One of the fastest players in the game. His '04 was hailed as a breakthrough but it was almost entirely a batting average thing - his power and strike jone judgment is poor. He needs time in Triple-A almost as much as the Astros need him to push Biggio aside.
Ezequiel Astacio: His strikeout rate nearly doubled with a comparable improvement in his stirkeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be in Houston before the year is over, and could have a big role in their bullpen.
Brandon Backe: His future success as a starter will hinge on how effective his change-up is against lefties. A converted outfielder, he's a good hitter to boot.
Taylor Bucholz: His curve is major league ready, and his command was voted best in the PCL. If his change-up comes around, he has a nice future as a starter; if it doesn't, he'll make a nice set-up man.
Mike Gallo: A lefty specialist who can't get out lefties is completely worthless. Purpura should keep an eye on the waiver wire.
Carlos Hernandez: He'll continue to improve at a slow pace, on his way to being a good pitcher again in 2006.
Fernando Nieve: Astacio's live arm gets more play, but Nieve's future could be just as bright.
Roy Oswalt: Through four seasons, his career is a virtual match for Mike Mussina's, except Mussina never took that step forward, staying at his established level for ten more years. Oswalt could; he has everything it takes to make the same leap Greg Maddux did in 1992 that allowed him to become the best pitcher in baseball.
Chad Qualls: His sinker/slider/strikes mix should work well at Minute Maid Park, giving the Astros a cheap, effective reliever.
Dan Wheeler: He's tough on righties, which is particularly useful in a division with lots of righty-heavy lineups.
Whew. So that's about it. Again, I think these guys are spot-on (which again isn't a big surprise, since BP is one of the reasons I first got into baseball statistics, so I tend to be a bit biased). I didn't really learn anything here that I didn't already know, except that they like Conrad a lot. I particularly like the comment on Todd Self - finding young, cheap, league-average players to fill most of your roster spots and spending the big bucks on true superstars like Berkman, Oswalt, and Lidge, is absolutely the way to go.
With that in mind, how's this for a 2007 Astros lineup:
C Humberto Quintero / Hector Gimenez
1B Todd Self
2B Chris Burke / Brooks Conrad
SS Adam Everett / Chris Burke
3B Morgan Ensberg / Mitch Einerston
LF Jason Lane / Luke Scott
CF Willy Taveras
RF Lance Berkman
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Brandon Backe
SP Carlos Hernandez
CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP Taylor Bucholz
RP Dan Wheeler
You know, that's not bad at all. Our biggest eventual 'holes' (areas in which we could sign an elite free agent who would make the biggest difference) are C, 1B, SS, CF, SP #2-5, and RP. Baseball Prospectus is also fond of saying that you should try and give your biggest contracts to excellent up-the-middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) players since they are also by far the most important defenders and you can often find good-hitting corner outfielders and corner infielders on the waiver wire or throughout the minor leagues. With that in mind, I think C, CF, and an elite SP will be our biggest needs in the coming free agencies.
Then:
"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...
The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...
One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...
This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...
But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...
Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...
The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."
Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.
BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:
Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.
Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.
Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.
Brooks Conrad: It's worth mentioning that PECOTA sees better things in 2005 for Conrad that it does for Burke, with his power and walks carrying the day.
Jason Lane: Career .280 / .351 / .526 in 263 PA's. He's been a better baseball player than Craig Biggio for three years now. Lane can rake, and would put up All-Star numbers if left alone to play.
Luke Scott: A throw-in in the Willy Taveras trade, Scott gets in here because of a big half-season at Round Rock. He doesn't bring much to the table other than his bat.
Todd Self: Self is just a marginal prospect, but his plate discipline is real and he could be good for 40 doubles and 15 homers through his peak. A Mark Grace / Wally Joyner hitter with average defense will let you spend money elsewhere.
Willy Taveras: One of the fastest players in the game. His '04 was hailed as a breakthrough but it was almost entirely a batting average thing - his power and strike jone judgment is poor. He needs time in Triple-A almost as much as the Astros need him to push Biggio aside.
Ezequiel Astacio: His strikeout rate nearly doubled with a comparable improvement in his stirkeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be in Houston before the year is over, and could have a big role in their bullpen.
Brandon Backe: His future success as a starter will hinge on how effective his change-up is against lefties. A converted outfielder, he's a good hitter to boot.
Taylor Bucholz: His curve is major league ready, and his command was voted best in the PCL. If his change-up comes around, he has a nice future as a starter; if it doesn't, he'll make a nice set-up man.
Mike Gallo: A lefty specialist who can't get out lefties is completely worthless. Purpura should keep an eye on the waiver wire.
Carlos Hernandez: He'll continue to improve at a slow pace, on his way to being a good pitcher again in 2006.
Fernando Nieve: Astacio's live arm gets more play, but Nieve's future could be just as bright.
Roy Oswalt: Through four seasons, his career is a virtual match for Mike Mussina's, except Mussina never took that step forward, staying at his established level for ten more years. Oswalt could; he has everything it takes to make the same leap Greg Maddux did in 1992 that allowed him to become the best pitcher in baseball.
Chad Qualls: His sinker/slider/strikes mix should work well at Minute Maid Park, giving the Astros a cheap, effective reliever.
Dan Wheeler: He's tough on righties, which is particularly useful in a division with lots of righty-heavy lineups.
Whew. So that's about it. Again, I think these guys are spot-on (which again isn't a big surprise, since BP is one of the reasons I first got into baseball statistics, so I tend to be a bit biased). I didn't really learn anything here that I didn't already know, except that they like Conrad a lot. I particularly like the comment on Todd Self - finding young, cheap, league-average players to fill most of your roster spots and spending the big bucks on true superstars like Berkman, Oswalt, and Lidge, is absolutely the way to go.
With that in mind, how's this for a 2007 Astros lineup:
C Humberto Quintero / Hector Gimenez
1B Todd Self
2B Chris Burke / Brooks Conrad
SS Adam Everett / Chris Burke
3B Morgan Ensberg / Mitch Einerston
LF Jason Lane / Luke Scott
CF Willy Taveras
RF Lance Berkman
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Brandon Backe
SP Carlos Hernandez
CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP Taylor Bucholz
RP Dan Wheeler
You know, that's not bad at all. Our biggest eventual 'holes' (areas in which we could sign an elite free agent who would make the biggest difference) are C, 1B, SS, CF, SP #2-5, and RP. Baseball Prospectus is also fond of saying that you should try and give your biggest contracts to excellent up-the-middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) players since they are also by far the most important defenders and you can often find good-hitting corner outfielders and corner infielders on the waiver wire or throughout the minor leagues. With that in mind, I think C, CF, and an elite SP will be our biggest needs in the coming free agencies.
Baseball Prospectus 2005, my favorite baseball annual, was waiting on my doorstep when I got home yesterday. I flipped to the Astros section, and was not surprised to find that their analysis was not positive. They started by praising the Astros 'going for it' with the Beltran trade, and highlighted our 9th inning comeback against the Expos as a 'turning point' of the season.
Then:
"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...
The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...
One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...
This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...
But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...
Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...
The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."
Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.
BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:
Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.
Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.
Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.
* Gotta run - I'll finish later.
Then:
"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...
The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...
One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...
This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...
But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...
Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...
The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."
Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.
BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:
Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.
Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.
Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.
* Gotta run - I'll finish later.
Monday, March 28, 2005
ARGGGGGH...
I made a long post about the Redding trade and my computer glitched AGAIN.
Ok, this time for sure:
I made a long post about the Redding trade and my computer glitched AGAIN.
Ok, this time for sure:
REDDING TRADED
They finally traded him. The Astros traded constantly frustrating Tim Redding and cash considerations to the San Diego Padres for catcher Humberto Quintero. This likely narrows the #5 starter role to Brandon Duckworth or Ezequiel Astacio.
Redding was agonizing to watch. Some days he'd cruise right along; some days he'd put up a
3 IP
10 H
8 ER
3 HR
2 BB
1 K
kind of line. He wasn't well-liked by the players or the fans in Houston, so he really needed to move on.
What about Humberto Quintero? From everything I've read this morning, he's an excellent defensive catcher (we love those, don't we?) with a little pop in his bat. He's only 25, so I'm hoping he can improve the next year or two. At worse, he'll challenge Raul Chavez for the backup catching position. At best, he's an excellent defensive and league-average offensive catcher for a year or two until the Astros find someone better.
Here are Quintero's minor league stats from 2003 and 2004:
2003 - AA - .298 / .343 / .389, 19 BB, 29 XBH, 386 AB
2004 - AAA - .317 / .348 / .471, 8 BB, 30 XBH, 259 AB
So he's a young catcher who doesn't walk but has shown decent power, and he's reportedly got a cannon for an arm. I think he could probably put up a .270 / .310 / .400 line in the majors in '06 and '07, which would make him a perfectly acceptable stopgap until we develop / sign / trade for someone better.
All in all, good trade. We had to get rid of Redding, and everyone knew it, so to get anything in value was a plus. Catcher was also by far the weakest position in our organization. Good job, Purpura.
Sunday, March 27, 2005
* Mike Gallo gives up a leadoff HR to Ruben Sierra in the 8th and goes on to give up 2 more runs, so the Astros lose 7-4. Looks like Gallo will most likely not make the team, since Franco is a better situational lefty and we can't really afford to carry two lefties in the bullpen with Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Burba, and Astacio all in the mix. Our bats went pretty dead after the first two innings. I liked what I saw from Luke Scott, Andy Pettitte, and Chad Qualls.
* After 7 innings it's 4-4. Brad Lidge relieved in the 5th; dominated. Dan Wheeler came in and gave up 2 runs, then Chad Qualls came in and looked great, striking out A-Rod to end the inning. Our offense has been quiet for a while - Chris Tremie had one of the worst AB's I've ever seen (although it was against Mariano Rivera), and Willy Taveras keeps popping up and swinging at a lot.
* Through 3 innings, the Astros lead 3-2. Andy Pettitte was cruising along until have gave up a 2 out triple to Jeter followed by a wind-aided HR by A-Rod. Morgan Ensberg and Chris Burke have made some nice defensive plays at 3rd and 2nd, respectively.
Here's the latest quote from Phil Garner on the 2nd base situation:
"Asked if Burke has done enough this spring to unseat Biggio from the second base position, Garner responded, "Probably not," and emphasised that the question is not whether Biggio will start this year, but rather where he will start, left field or second base.
"Has [Burke] done enough to put Biggio on the bench?" Garner said. "Probably not. Burke will someday be in that same position. It's a difficult situation for a young player to be in. Biggio is showing no signs of slowing down and he had a good year last year. Would this team be better with Burke? That remains to be seen, but Biggio has earned the right to have the opportunity first.
"The decision won't be if Burke has unseated Biggio as much as it is, is the ballclub better with Burke in the lineup at second and Biggio in the lineup in left?"
Here's a paragraph later on in the same article:
"Biggio, who is hitting .243 (9-for-37) with a .243 on-base percentage, one double, one RBI and six strikeouts this spring, has played in the outfield only once this spring, and that was in a minor-league game. Burke is hitting .294 (10-for-34) with a .529 slugging percentage, a .415 on-base percentage and a double, two triples, one home run, six RBIs, five walks and seven strikeouts."
Ouch. That hurts. So Biggio has one walk and one extra base hit in 37 AB's, while Burke has 5 walks and four extra base hits in 34 AB's. So, of course, we're going with Biggio.
I'll be realistic for once - Biggio is going to start somewhere, whether it's LF or 2B. I guess I can't argue that Luke Scott has had a better spring than Chris Burke, but Scott has also never played above AA, while Burke had a great year at AAA last year. However, it looks like Garner is sold on Scott being the starting LF, so let's assume our Opening Day lineup looks like:
Biggio
Everett
Bagwell
Ensberg
Lane
Scott
Taveras
Ausmus
That's not a very inspiring lineup. With Biggio, Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and the pitcher, we've got 5 very possible slots for a sub-.330 OBP. Only Bagwell and Lane are locks for a .450 SLG. We're probably not going to score very many runs until Lance gets back.
We still have to find a way to get Chris Burke at-bats, though, so I'll go back to my recommended plan of having Burke start when extreme groundballer Andy Pettitte is on the mound. I don't think even Craig Biggio could argue that Burke is better defensively at 2B than he is. If Burke starts at least every 5th day and is our primary RH pinch hitter off the bench, he should get a decent amount of AB's.
Here's the latest quote from Phil Garner on the 2nd base situation:
"Asked if Burke has done enough this spring to unseat Biggio from the second base position, Garner responded, "Probably not," and emphasised that the question is not whether Biggio will start this year, but rather where he will start, left field or second base.
"Has [Burke] done enough to put Biggio on the bench?" Garner said. "Probably not. Burke will someday be in that same position. It's a difficult situation for a young player to be in. Biggio is showing no signs of slowing down and he had a good year last year. Would this team be better with Burke? That remains to be seen, but Biggio has earned the right to have the opportunity first.
"The decision won't be if Burke has unseated Biggio as much as it is, is the ballclub better with Burke in the lineup at second and Biggio in the lineup in left?"
Here's a paragraph later on in the same article:
"Biggio, who is hitting .243 (9-for-37) with a .243 on-base percentage, one double, one RBI and six strikeouts this spring, has played in the outfield only once this spring, and that was in a minor-league game. Burke is hitting .294 (10-for-34) with a .529 slugging percentage, a .415 on-base percentage and a double, two triples, one home run, six RBIs, five walks and seven strikeouts."
Ouch. That hurts. So Biggio has one walk and one extra base hit in 37 AB's, while Burke has 5 walks and four extra base hits in 34 AB's. So, of course, we're going with Biggio.
I'll be realistic for once - Biggio is going to start somewhere, whether it's LF or 2B. I guess I can't argue that Luke Scott has had a better spring than Chris Burke, but Scott has also never played above AA, while Burke had a great year at AAA last year. However, it looks like Garner is sold on Scott being the starting LF, so let's assume our Opening Day lineup looks like:
Biggio
Everett
Bagwell
Ensberg
Lane
Scott
Taveras
Ausmus
That's not a very inspiring lineup. With Biggio, Everett, Taveras, Ausmus, and the pitcher, we've got 5 very possible slots for a sub-.330 OBP. Only Bagwell and Lane are locks for a .450 SLG. We're probably not going to score very many runs until Lance gets back.
We still have to find a way to get Chris Burke at-bats, though, so I'll go back to my recommended plan of having Burke start when extreme groundballer Andy Pettitte is on the mound. I don't think even Craig Biggio could argue that Burke is better defensively at 2B than he is. If Burke starts at least every 5th day and is our primary RH pinch hitter off the bench, he should get a decent amount of AB's.
I'm watching the Astros-Yankees game today on MLB.TV - it's great quality, and we're up 2-0 after Willy Taveras singled, stole 2nd, and was driven in on an opposite-field double by Luke Scott, who was then driven in after a single by Lamb and a sac fly by Jason Lane. Both Taveras and Scott looked great at the plate to me.
I had a great time in Phoenix for a few days. I arrived Wednesday afternoon and met a friend for the Rangers-Royals game at Surprise Stadium. The starting pitchers were Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima - I wish I was sitting in the outfield. Mark Teixeira CRUSHED an early HR nearly out of the stadium, and Alfonso Soriano and Matt Stairs also had HR's. Oh yeah, and my friend is the nephew of Rangers manager Buck Showalter, so we had great seats, and I got to meet Buck himself after the game. He went to Mississippi State and I went to Vanderbilt, so we had some good-natured SEC competitive trash-talking going. He was a heck of a guy - very personable and polite - probably because his team had just won.
Then I crashed on the coach at my roommate's girlfriend's house that night; the next day, I got to the Cubs / Angels game about 3 hours early - no problem getting a ticket, right? Wrong. Cubs fans are EVERYWHERE, and the game was sold out. Quite a few guys were still waiting in line at the ticket counter, and one of them told me that the players usually send back a bunch of tickets before the game starts, so I hopped in line. Almost instantly, about 50 more people got in line right behind me. An elderly couple approached me and asked if I would buy them 2 tickets. I said sure, and after waiting in line for about 45 minutes, I bought 3 tickets at 6 bucks each. They gave me a 20 dollar bill and said "Thanks!" Sweet; free game for me. I got lawn seats, so I was out in left field. It was Kelvim Escobar vs. Carlos Zambrano - a pretty good pitching matchup, but I figured Vladi or Aramis Ramirez might hit one out to me. The first HR hit that day? Carlos Zambrano took Escobar DEEP to right field. D'oh! Then Derrek Lee homered to center, Darin Erstad homered to right, and that was that. K-Rod came on late for the Angels and made a bunch of guys look silly to get the save.
I was then planning on going to the San Diego game, but I was pretty sunburned, so I decided to stop by Casino Arizona and play some poker. They've got a great poker room - 45 tables, tons of big screen TV's, no smoking. I didn't do much for the first hour or two, and then came the hand of my life (so far):
I call with 55 in 1st position.
A few guys limp in middle positions.
The small blind raises. I call, all the limpers call.
The flop comes 3-5-7 rainbow. I check, all the limpers check, the small blind bets, I raise, everyone folds, the small blind calls.
The turn brings another 5! So I've got quads. I bet, the small blind raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he calls.
The river is an A. I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he 6-bets, I 7-bet, he calls, and flips over AA (the 2nd nuts).
So I raked what must have been a 200 dollar pot, almost all heads-up!
Man, my heart was pumping...what an experience. My victim took it pretty well, too - he was way up before that.
The next day I was planning on going to the Giants game, but I felt like coming home to Flagstaff, so I did.
It was a hell of a trip, great weather, good baseball, sleeping on a couch.
I'll post later today with this Astros summary (and more Biggio / Burke comments by Phil Garner).
I had a great time in Phoenix for a few days. I arrived Wednesday afternoon and met a friend for the Rangers-Royals game at Surprise Stadium. The starting pitchers were Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima - I wish I was sitting in the outfield. Mark Teixeira CRUSHED an early HR nearly out of the stadium, and Alfonso Soriano and Matt Stairs also had HR's. Oh yeah, and my friend is the nephew of Rangers manager Buck Showalter, so we had great seats, and I got to meet Buck himself after the game. He went to Mississippi State and I went to Vanderbilt, so we had some good-natured SEC competitive trash-talking going. He was a heck of a guy - very personable and polite - probably because his team had just won.
Then I crashed on the coach at my roommate's girlfriend's house that night; the next day, I got to the Cubs / Angels game about 3 hours early - no problem getting a ticket, right? Wrong. Cubs fans are EVERYWHERE, and the game was sold out. Quite a few guys were still waiting in line at the ticket counter, and one of them told me that the players usually send back a bunch of tickets before the game starts, so I hopped in line. Almost instantly, about 50 more people got in line right behind me. An elderly couple approached me and asked if I would buy them 2 tickets. I said sure, and after waiting in line for about 45 minutes, I bought 3 tickets at 6 bucks each. They gave me a 20 dollar bill and said "Thanks!" Sweet; free game for me. I got lawn seats, so I was out in left field. It was Kelvim Escobar vs. Carlos Zambrano - a pretty good pitching matchup, but I figured Vladi or Aramis Ramirez might hit one out to me. The first HR hit that day? Carlos Zambrano took Escobar DEEP to right field. D'oh! Then Derrek Lee homered to center, Darin Erstad homered to right, and that was that. K-Rod came on late for the Angels and made a bunch of guys look silly to get the save.
I was then planning on going to the San Diego game, but I was pretty sunburned, so I decided to stop by Casino Arizona and play some poker. They've got a great poker room - 45 tables, tons of big screen TV's, no smoking. I didn't do much for the first hour or two, and then came the hand of my life (so far):
I call with 55 in 1st position.
A few guys limp in middle positions.
The small blind raises. I call, all the limpers call.
The flop comes 3-5-7 rainbow. I check, all the limpers check, the small blind bets, I raise, everyone folds, the small blind calls.
The turn brings another 5! So I've got quads. I bet, the small blind raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he calls.
The river is an A. I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he 4-bets, I 5-bet, he 6-bets, I 7-bet, he calls, and flips over AA (the 2nd nuts).
So I raked what must have been a 200 dollar pot, almost all heads-up!
Man, my heart was pumping...what an experience. My victim took it pretty well, too - he was way up before that.
The next day I was planning on going to the Giants game, but I felt like coming home to Flagstaff, so I did.
It was a hell of a trip, great weather, good baseball, sleeping on a couch.
I'll post later today with this Astros summary (and more Biggio / Burke comments by Phil Garner).
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Computer Glitches, Yesterday's Game, and a Road Trip
I listened to the Astros's 14-8 win over the Phillies yesterday, wrote a long post about it, and my computer immediately glitched. So here it goes again:
Ezequiel Astacio pitched 4 innings, allowed 3 hits, 1 BB, and had 5 K. Another solid outing for 'Zeke', and while I still believe he should be started in the bullpen (because Redding / Duckworth shouldn't just be released), he's looked fantastic this spring, and I'm not sure how long we'll be able to keep him in the pen.
Luke Scott did his usual spring thing, with a single, HR, and 4 RBI. Ho-hum. There's not much more to say about this guy. Pass it off as fluky if you must, but he's earned a chance to prove that it's not a fluke in the Show.
A bunch of other offensive contributions (Chris Burke with a late triple; he's now hitting .296, has drawn 5 walks, and is slugging over .500, while Craig Biggio is hitting .265 and is slugging .294 with 1 extra base hit, but it looks as though he'll be our starting 2B), but our pitching was sketchy: in particular, Dave Burba should start looking for good flight prices, as he got hammered again this spring - he's got a 9.26 ERA in 11.2 innings. He's had a fine career, but it doesn't look like it will continue here.
ESPN SportsCenter reported last night that the Astros are still likely to trade for an outfielder in the next 10 days, with Randy Winn, Mike Cameron, and Eric Byrnes as possible targets. I'm glad to have the Winn rumors start up again, as I think he'd be our best fit (excellent 2nd half last year, no injury concers, younger / cheaper than Mike Cameron). Seattle is also home to one of the less intelligent GM's in the game in Bill Bavasi - this would be a great test to see what kind of deal Purpura can get. You would think the M's would be almost looking to get rid of Winn - they've got Ibanez / Reed / Ichiro! in the OF, and Sexson and Bucky Jacobsen at 1B / DH. But you never know. My task for Purpura is to find a way to trade for Winn without trading Chris Burke, if at all possible. I know I said trade him yesterday, but I was frustrated because of his lack of playing time and clear superiority (this spring, at least) over Craig Biggio. But, as someone reminded me, Biggio is a 39-year old 2nd basemen who gets hit by a lot of pitches; there's a decent chance he could get injured and be Wally Pipp-ed by Burke. We'll see.
Vanderbilt lost to Memphis in the NIT quarterfinals last night - we started off hot, going up 11-2, but then tried to run with Memphis for a while instead of playing halfcourt basketball. By the time we started hitting a few shots again, we were down 10, and Memphis was the better team last night, especially on the boards. Good luck to them.
So I'm finally heading down to Phoenix in a few hours; I'm going to the Rangers - Royals game tonight and hopefully a few others on Friday and Saturday. JT, Andy, it's all yours.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Solid outings by Oswalt and Pettitte the last two games (both wins). I'd still like to see Pettitte wait and start the 4th or 5th game of the season, but I doubt it'll happen. Luke Scott is still the big offensive star; here are his numbers this spring, before today's game (when he went 2-for-2):
26 AB
6 H
3 2B
3 HR
8 RBI
.423 AVG
.885 SLG
I'm beating a dead horse here, but Scott MUST MAKE THE TEAM, at the least while Berkman is hurt.
Richard Justice was on KTRH the other day, and he still believes the Astros will acquire a 'big' bat, possibly (again) Mike Cameron. Chris Burke isn't getting any playing time at 2B; I think it's likely Biggio will start there all year, demoting Burke to backup IF, where the presence of Proven Veteran might even push Burke back to AAA. Much as I like Burke, he needs to play now, so I'd rather trade him than have him spend another year at AAA; I think Brooks Conrad will probably be ready next year anyway. I wonder if we could find a different A's team to try and make a 3-way trade with; the Mets reportedly need a corner OF to replace Cameron. Wily Mo Pena of the Reds? Termel Sledge of the Nats? Raul Ibanez of the Mariners? With Cameron signed for two more years, an OF of Lane / Cameron / Berkman wouldn't be too bad; this would push Scott and Taveras to their rightful places as backup OF's, and an IF (this year) of Ensberg / Everett / Biggio / Bagwell, with Conrad coming up soon. Here's the thing about Burke - he's 25, and he had never displayed power like last year. I think last year may have been a touch fluky. I still want him on my team, but if he doesn't start this year, he might just be blocking Conrad next year, and we probably coudn't get the same value for him in a trade than if we traded him NOW. Just a thought.
26 AB
6 H
3 2B
3 HR
8 RBI
.423 AVG
.885 SLG
I'm beating a dead horse here, but Scott MUST MAKE THE TEAM, at the least while Berkman is hurt.
Richard Justice was on KTRH the other day, and he still believes the Astros will acquire a 'big' bat, possibly (again) Mike Cameron. Chris Burke isn't getting any playing time at 2B; I think it's likely Biggio will start there all year, demoting Burke to backup IF, where the presence of Proven Veteran might even push Burke back to AAA. Much as I like Burke, he needs to play now, so I'd rather trade him than have him spend another year at AAA; I think Brooks Conrad will probably be ready next year anyway. I wonder if we could find a different A's team to try and make a 3-way trade with; the Mets reportedly need a corner OF to replace Cameron. Wily Mo Pena of the Reds? Termel Sledge of the Nats? Raul Ibanez of the Mariners? With Cameron signed for two more years, an OF of Lane / Cameron / Berkman wouldn't be too bad; this would push Scott and Taveras to their rightful places as backup OF's, and an IF (this year) of Ensberg / Everett / Biggio / Bagwell, with Conrad coming up soon. Here's the thing about Burke - he's 25, and he had never displayed power like last year. I think last year may have been a touch fluky. I still want him on my team, but if he doesn't start this year, he might just be blocking Conrad next year, and we probably coudn't get the same value for him in a trade than if we traded him NOW. Just a thought.
Monday, March 21, 2005
The latest Gammons column includes these little tidbits:
The Reds also told the Astros they would move Junior Griffey to Houston – for four top prospects.
Um, four top prospects for The Injury King? No thanks.
• The 'Stros right now plan to open the season with Willy Taveras in center field and Craig Biggio at second base, which means Chris Burke will either go back to the minors or stay in the majors as a utilityman/left fielder.
Yeah, I figured as much. I wonder if Gerry Hunsicker somehow knew that this would happen when he resigned in protest over the Biggio signing. To be fair, Biggio is one of the best Astros of all time, and a Hall of Famer. But to be honest, he's past in prime, is no longer a defensive asset at 2nd, and he's now blocking our top prospect. Burke as a utilityman? Why not Biggio as a utilityman? Lord knows he's played more positions than Burke. You could put Biggio anywhere except 3rd or SS and he wouldn't completely embarrass himself. But instead we're going to put him where he'll prevent our best up-and-coming player from getting AB's. Makes sense to me. Moreover, where does this leave our OF? If it's Lane / Taveras / Scott, I guess I'm all right with it. If it's Lane / Taveras / Palmeiro, I'm pissed - Biggio, Taveras, and Palmeiro getting playing time over Burke and Scott? Urge to kill....rising.....
• The Astros' fifth-starter battle seems to be between Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding, who are both out of options, but if 25-year-old righty Ezequiel Astacio keeps pitching well he may fill the spot. If Duckworth or Redding doesn't grab the spot, Astacio could go to Triple-A New Orleans for a couple of starts, then be ready when the Astros need a fifth starter sometime after the first week of the regular season.
I'm of the opinion that Redding and Duckworth both have decent enough potential and trade value that simply releasing them wouldn't make sense, so unless we can find trade partners for both of them (unlikely), I'm hoping we can trade one of them, make the other the #5 starter, and send Astacio to the bullpen or AAA. Why are we trying to rush Astacio to the big leagues when he's never thrown a pitch above AA? Work him in slowly....sheesh.
The Reds also told the Astros they would move Junior Griffey to Houston – for four top prospects.
Um, four top prospects for The Injury King? No thanks.
• The 'Stros right now plan to open the season with Willy Taveras in center field and Craig Biggio at second base, which means Chris Burke will either go back to the minors or stay in the majors as a utilityman/left fielder.
Yeah, I figured as much. I wonder if Gerry Hunsicker somehow knew that this would happen when he resigned in protest over the Biggio signing. To be fair, Biggio is one of the best Astros of all time, and a Hall of Famer. But to be honest, he's past in prime, is no longer a defensive asset at 2nd, and he's now blocking our top prospect. Burke as a utilityman? Why not Biggio as a utilityman? Lord knows he's played more positions than Burke. You could put Biggio anywhere except 3rd or SS and he wouldn't completely embarrass himself. But instead we're going to put him where he'll prevent our best up-and-coming player from getting AB's. Makes sense to me. Moreover, where does this leave our OF? If it's Lane / Taveras / Scott, I guess I'm all right with it. If it's Lane / Taveras / Palmeiro, I'm pissed - Biggio, Taveras, and Palmeiro getting playing time over Burke and Scott? Urge to kill....rising.....
• The Astros' fifth-starter battle seems to be between Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding, who are both out of options, but if 25-year-old righty Ezequiel Astacio keeps pitching well he may fill the spot. If Duckworth or Redding doesn't grab the spot, Astacio could go to Triple-A New Orleans for a couple of starts, then be ready when the Astros need a fifth starter sometime after the first week of the regular season.
I'm of the opinion that Redding and Duckworth both have decent enough potential and trade value that simply releasing them wouldn't make sense, so unless we can find trade partners for both of them (unlikely), I'm hoping we can trade one of them, make the other the #5 starter, and send Astacio to the bullpen or AAA. Why are we trying to rush Astacio to the big leagues when he's never thrown a pitch above AA? Work him in slowly....sheesh.
Vanderiblt plays Wichita St. tonight in Memorial in the 2nd round of the NIT. If we win another game or two I think we might play Texas A&M, which would lead to much trash-talking between JT and I.
A lot of baseball rumors floating around out there...
1. The Devil Rays are interested in Mike Lamb as their DH. Well, great. I'd like to trade Lamb, since I think he had a career year last year, but we do kinda need a backup 3B and a LH bat off the bench. He's a good fit for us right now. Unless the D-Rays want to give up Kazmir or Upton...
2. The Twins are going to release Mike Restovich, since he's out of options. Sign him up! He's no All-Star, but he's 25, can play RF or LF, and mashes lefties (900+ OPS in 60 career AB's). When we lose Biggio and Palmeiro (hopefully) next year, he'd make a fine 4th or 5th OF behind Lane / Taveras / Berkman / Scott.
3. The Washington Nationals are interested in a backup middle infielder. Want some Viz? We have a similar but better player in Eric Bruntlett, and Brooks Conrad waiting in the minors, so how about Viz for some Big League Chew? Well, seriously, how about Viz for some bullpen help? They've got...Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Antonio Osuna....alternatively, what about Redding + Viz / Bruntlett for Termel Sledge(Hammer)?
I'm driving down to Phoenix tomorrow. Planning on catching 2 spring training games a day on Wednesday and Thursday. Andy and JT, you guys better post while I'm gone.
A lot of baseball rumors floating around out there...
1. The Devil Rays are interested in Mike Lamb as their DH. Well, great. I'd like to trade Lamb, since I think he had a career year last year, but we do kinda need a backup 3B and a LH bat off the bench. He's a good fit for us right now. Unless the D-Rays want to give up Kazmir or Upton...
2. The Twins are going to release Mike Restovich, since he's out of options. Sign him up! He's no All-Star, but he's 25, can play RF or LF, and mashes lefties (900+ OPS in 60 career AB's). When we lose Biggio and Palmeiro (hopefully) next year, he'd make a fine 4th or 5th OF behind Lane / Taveras / Berkman / Scott.
3. The Washington Nationals are interested in a backup middle infielder. Want some Viz? We have a similar but better player in Eric Bruntlett, and Brooks Conrad waiting in the minors, so how about Viz for some Big League Chew? Well, seriously, how about Viz for some bullpen help? They've got...Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Antonio Osuna....alternatively, what about Redding + Viz / Bruntlett for Termel Sledge(Hammer)?
I'm driving down to Phoenix tomorrow. Planning on catching 2 spring training games a day on Wednesday and Thursday. Andy and JT, you guys better post while I'm gone.
Sunday, March 20, 2005
Astros won 6-3 today, behind a solid 5 inning / 2 ER / 5K performance from Backe, and Luke Scott going 3-for-4 with 2 RBI's. If Scott doesn't make the team as at least a reserve OF out of spring training, it'll be a travesty.
Other than that, not too much to report. The Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade went through; now that I think about it, Phillips might not be that great: he's 28, already at the age when many catchers start to decline, and Tim Redding still has some potential. I'd like to see them try and trade him for bullpen help now - Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler both pitched well today, but Franco / Harville has sucked, leaving us with 3 solid relievers: Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler. You'd sure like to have more than that. Redding + ? = Urbina? As far as catchers go, I made a post a while back about possible free agents, and the only really good one this coming offseason is Ramon Hernandez, whom the Padres are trying to sign to an extension. Hope they don't, or we may be stuck with someone worse (!!) than Brad Ausmus next year.
Other than that, not too much to report. The Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade went through; now that I think about it, Phillips might not be that great: he's 28, already at the age when many catchers start to decline, and Tim Redding still has some potential. I'd like to see them try and trade him for bullpen help now - Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler both pitched well today, but Franco / Harville has sucked, leaving us with 3 solid relievers: Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler. You'd sure like to have more than that. Redding + ? = Urbina? As far as catchers go, I made a post a while back about possible free agents, and the only really good one this coming offseason is Ramon Hernandez, whom the Padres are trying to sign to an extension. Hope they don't, or we may be stuck with someone worse (!!) than Brad Ausmus next year.
More Berkman analysis:
Apparently Lance gets 10.5 million this year, and 14.5 million for the next 5 years. This all adds up to a total of 83 million. So, a 6 year / 83 million dollar deal. Here's how it compares to a few other contracts AT THE TIME they were given:
Player Ages Years Cost Position Injury (last 3 OPS+'s) RangeFactor
Lance 29-34 6 83 RF Knee 152,137,161 1.74
Vladi 28-32 5 70 RF Back 133,162,144 2.03
Mags 31-37 7 100 RF Knee 135,152,142 2.10
So I stand by my statement yesterday - this signing is somewhere in-between the incredible value that was Vladi's contract and the abomination that was Mags's deal. A few things to note: Lance has been slightly better offensively than both Vladi and Mags, but his defense is noticeably worse, which is why I think it's likely he'll eventually move to 1B. This move will make him less valuable, as a 1000 OPS is rarer for a RF than it is for a 1B. However, there aren't any comparable OF's to Berkman that will be free agents in '06, and he's a popular player. I said at the beginning of the offseason that my main recommendation for the organization was to sign Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals. Well, they got 6 year and 3 year deals, respectively. I've got nothing to complain about today - we have our two best players locked up for a few years.
Luke Scott hit his 3rd HR of the spring last year in a 7-4 loss to the Blue Jays, and Morgan Ensberg drew three walks. A few of our #5 hopefuls pitched poorly:
Carlos Hernandez: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB/ 1 K - Like he has all spring, Carlos walked more than he struck out, and he's been very hittable. At this point, he's just not a big-league pitcher.
Tim Redding: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB / 1 K - According to a report I read yesterday, there were numerous scouts from other teams in attendance, and our announcers were saying that a trade is basically a lock. This means that once Redding is gone (unfortunately, I have to say good riddance), it looks like the #5 job is down to Brandon Duckworth and Ezequiel Astacio. Count me in the Duckworth corner - with our bullpen looking pretty rough these days, Astacio could help out there, and getting a young pitching prospect experience out of the bullpen before just throwing him in to a starting job has worked wonders in the past (Roy Oswalt?), and not just for the Astros. It's a big step from AA to #5 starter, which is what Astacio would be doing. I think we should ease him in to his eventual role.
My last concern this spring is that Biggio is still starting just about every game at 2nd base. I'm pretty angry about this. If Biggio starts the season at 2nd, that means our OF will be some combination of Lane / Taveras / Scott / Palmeiro, and while Scott and Taveras have had good springs, BURKE IS OUR BEST PROSPECT!! HE PUT UP AN 893 OPS IN A PITCHER'S PARK LAST YEAR!! HE'S ALREADY 25; IT'S TIME TO LET HIM PLAY!! Yeah, Biggio, I'm sure you would rather play 2nd, but too bad. Get thee back to left field.
I'd then set up our 25-man roster like-a so: (starters come first)
OF: Biggio / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro / Taveras (Taveras or Scott to AAA when Lance returns)
IF: Ensberg / Everett / Burke / Bagwell / Lamb / Vizcaino / Bruntlett
C: Ausmus / Chavez
SP: Oswalt / Clemens / Backe / Pettitte / Duckworth / Astacio
RP: Lidge / Qualls / Wheeler / Harville / Franco / Springer
That's a pretty powerless backup IF after Lamb, and that back of the bullpen is AWFUL. Just AWFUL. Probably my biggest disappointment this offseason, even more than losing Beltran, was Purpura's absolute failure to sign any decent, proven reliever (Chris Hammond, Steve Reed, Jeff Nelson, Antonio Osuna, etc.), and instead sign Turk Wendell, John Franco, and Dave Burba (combined age: 119). Last I heard, the Tigers were still looking to move Ugueth Urbina; think they'd be interested in Tim Redding or Luke Scott or...anyone? At this point, our bullpen is a catastrophe waiting to happen. If Urbina would consent to being the 8th inning guy (which is what he'd be with the Tigers anyway), that would be a godsend to our bullpen, allowing everyone to drop down in the depth chart, and giving either Franco or Springer the big ol' boot.
Apparently Lance gets 10.5 million this year, and 14.5 million for the next 5 years. This all adds up to a total of 83 million. So, a 6 year / 83 million dollar deal. Here's how it compares to a few other contracts AT THE TIME they were given:
Player Ages Years Cost Position Injury (last 3 OPS+'s) RangeFactor
Lance 29-34 6 83 RF Knee 152,137,161 1.74
Vladi 28-32 5 70 RF Back 133,162,144 2.03
Mags 31-37 7 100 RF Knee 135,152,142 2.10
So I stand by my statement yesterday - this signing is somewhere in-between the incredible value that was Vladi's contract and the abomination that was Mags's deal. A few things to note: Lance has been slightly better offensively than both Vladi and Mags, but his defense is noticeably worse, which is why I think it's likely he'll eventually move to 1B. This move will make him less valuable, as a 1000 OPS is rarer for a RF than it is for a 1B. However, there aren't any comparable OF's to Berkman that will be free agents in '06, and he's a popular player. I said at the beginning of the offseason that my main recommendation for the organization was to sign Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals. Well, they got 6 year and 3 year deals, respectively. I've got nothing to complain about today - we have our two best players locked up for a few years.
Luke Scott hit his 3rd HR of the spring last year in a 7-4 loss to the Blue Jays, and Morgan Ensberg drew three walks. A few of our #5 hopefuls pitched poorly:
Carlos Hernandez: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB/ 1 K - Like he has all spring, Carlos walked more than he struck out, and he's been very hittable. At this point, he's just not a big-league pitcher.
Tim Redding: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB / 1 K - According to a report I read yesterday, there were numerous scouts from other teams in attendance, and our announcers were saying that a trade is basically a lock. This means that once Redding is gone (unfortunately, I have to say good riddance), it looks like the #5 job is down to Brandon Duckworth and Ezequiel Astacio. Count me in the Duckworth corner - with our bullpen looking pretty rough these days, Astacio could help out there, and getting a young pitching prospect experience out of the bullpen before just throwing him in to a starting job has worked wonders in the past (Roy Oswalt?), and not just for the Astros. It's a big step from AA to #5 starter, which is what Astacio would be doing. I think we should ease him in to his eventual role.
My last concern this spring is that Biggio is still starting just about every game at 2nd base. I'm pretty angry about this. If Biggio starts the season at 2nd, that means our OF will be some combination of Lane / Taveras / Scott / Palmeiro, and while Scott and Taveras have had good springs, BURKE IS OUR BEST PROSPECT!! HE PUT UP AN 893 OPS IN A PITCHER'S PARK LAST YEAR!! HE'S ALREADY 25; IT'S TIME TO LET HIM PLAY!! Yeah, Biggio, I'm sure you would rather play 2nd, but too bad. Get thee back to left field.
I'd then set up our 25-man roster like-a so: (starters come first)
OF: Biggio / Lane / Scott / Palmeiro / Taveras (Taveras or Scott to AAA when Lance returns)
IF: Ensberg / Everett / Burke / Bagwell / Lamb / Vizcaino / Bruntlett
C: Ausmus / Chavez
SP: Oswalt / Clemens / Backe / Pettitte / Duckworth / Astacio
RP: Lidge / Qualls / Wheeler / Harville / Franco / Springer
That's a pretty powerless backup IF after Lamb, and that back of the bullpen is AWFUL. Just AWFUL. Probably my biggest disappointment this offseason, even more than losing Beltran, was Purpura's absolute failure to sign any decent, proven reliever (Chris Hammond, Steve Reed, Jeff Nelson, Antonio Osuna, etc.), and instead sign Turk Wendell, John Franco, and Dave Burba (combined age: 119). Last I heard, the Tigers were still looking to move Ugueth Urbina; think they'd be interested in Tim Redding or Luke Scott or...anyone? At this point, our bullpen is a catastrophe waiting to happen. If Urbina would consent to being the 8th inning guy (which is what he'd be with the Tigers anyway), that would be a godsend to our bullpen, allowing everyone to drop down in the depth chart, and giving either Franco or Springer the big ol' boot.
Saturday, March 19, 2005
BREAKING NEWS: Lance Berkman signs a 5 year / 85 million dollar deal with the 'Stros.
EDIT: Actually, apparently, the 85 million INCLUDES the 1 year / 10.5 million dollar deal, making the final contract a 6 year / 85 million dollar deal. Even better! Please...stay....healthy....
No contract specifics, but it works out to about 14 mil / year. It's hard to know which contract to compare this to:
Vladi's 5 year / 70 million dollar contract last offseason (what a bargain!), because Vladi, like Lance, had some injury concerns (back), although they were more severe concerns....
or Magglio's 7 year / 100 million dollar deal (NOT a bargain). Lance has been better than Magglio pretty much every year since he came into the league.
My thoughts on the contract are that it's a pretty good one, particularly if Lance's knee fully heals. It seems like this was the minimum amount it would take to sign Lance; he may well have commanded more on the open market. Berkman is an excellent hitter; here are his OPS from the past 5 years:
929
1051
982
927
1016
That's an elite offensive player. His defense has been steady in both LF and RF, and he even managed to not embarrass himself playing CF. I think he's likely to move to 1B after '06 when Bagwell leaves, unless Todd Self starts hitting for power.
Again, this contract really hinges on how Lance returns from his knee. I hope he's healed in May, because he's a great, popular player, on a team that will probably need all the offense it can get the next few years as we work in our prospects.
So, here's how I see our team shaping up the next few years:
LF Jason Lane
CF ?
RF Lance Berkman / Luke Scott
3B Morgan Ensberg
SS Adam Everett
2B Chris Burke
1B Todd Self / Lance Berkman
C ?
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Brandon Backe
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP ?
SP ?
CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?
Bench
OF Willy Taveras
OF Luke Scott
IF Brooks Conrad
IF Mitch Einerston
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Carlos Hernandez
That's not too bad a base to build off of the next few years. The most gaping holes are catcher, center field, 2 starting pitcher slots, and the bullpen.
With that in mind, there is a rumor that the Dodgers - Mets are finalizing a Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade. To which I say: CRAP! The Mets need a #5 starter with Trachsel out; this seems like the perfect opportunity to get rid of Tim Redding, AND Jason Phillips can play catcher! Phillips was incredibly bad last year (624 OPS), but he had an 815 OPS in '03, is 28, and is an average defender. He'd be a perfectly acceptable stopgap for a year or two until Hector Gimenez is ready or we realize he's not the answer and we sign a free agent.
Summary of today: good job with the Berkman signing, start looking towards the future, and trade for a catcher!
EDIT: Actually, apparently, the 85 million INCLUDES the 1 year / 10.5 million dollar deal, making the final contract a 6 year / 85 million dollar deal. Even better! Please...stay....healthy....
No contract specifics, but it works out to about 14 mil / year. It's hard to know which contract to compare this to:
Vladi's 5 year / 70 million dollar contract last offseason (what a bargain!), because Vladi, like Lance, had some injury concerns (back), although they were more severe concerns....
or Magglio's 7 year / 100 million dollar deal (NOT a bargain). Lance has been better than Magglio pretty much every year since he came into the league.
My thoughts on the contract are that it's a pretty good one, particularly if Lance's knee fully heals. It seems like this was the minimum amount it would take to sign Lance; he may well have commanded more on the open market. Berkman is an excellent hitter; here are his OPS from the past 5 years:
929
1051
982
927
1016
That's an elite offensive player. His defense has been steady in both LF and RF, and he even managed to not embarrass himself playing CF. I think he's likely to move to 1B after '06 when Bagwell leaves, unless Todd Self starts hitting for power.
Again, this contract really hinges on how Lance returns from his knee. I hope he's healed in May, because he's a great, popular player, on a team that will probably need all the offense it can get the next few years as we work in our prospects.
So, here's how I see our team shaping up the next few years:
LF Jason Lane
CF ?
RF Lance Berkman / Luke Scott
3B Morgan Ensberg
SS Adam Everett
2B Chris Burke
1B Todd Self / Lance Berkman
C ?
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Brandon Backe
SP Ezequiel Astacio
SP ?
SP ?
CL Brad Lidge
RP Chad Qualls
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?
RP ?
Bench
OF Willy Taveras
OF Luke Scott
IF Brooks Conrad
IF Mitch Einerston
SP Fernando Nieve
SP Carlos Hernandez
That's not too bad a base to build off of the next few years. The most gaping holes are catcher, center field, 2 starting pitcher slots, and the bullpen.
With that in mind, there is a rumor that the Dodgers - Mets are finalizing a Kaz Ishii - Jason Phillips trade. To which I say: CRAP! The Mets need a #5 starter with Trachsel out; this seems like the perfect opportunity to get rid of Tim Redding, AND Jason Phillips can play catcher! Phillips was incredibly bad last year (624 OPS), but he had an 815 OPS in '03, is 28, and is an average defender. He'd be a perfectly acceptable stopgap for a year or two until Hector Gimenez is ready or we realize he's not the answer and we sign a free agent.
Summary of today: good job with the Berkman signing, start looking towards the future, and trade for a catcher!
Friday, March 18, 2005
Spring training stats don't matter...
but they're still fun to talk about. Particularly for players trying to make the team. I'm not too concerned about how Biggio / Bagwell / Ausmus / Oswalt are doing, because they have an established level of performance. But the youngsters; well, that's another story. With that in mind, here are some interesting stats from a few of the young guys:
Jason Lane: 6 extra base hits, slugging .700, in 30 AB's. His defense might never be suited to CF, but he can hit for power. I'm hoping for a .280 / .350 / .500 line.
Adam Everett / Willy Taveras: hitting .276 and .308, respectively, with 7 SB and 0 CS.....but they've combined for 2 extra base hits in 55 AB's. Ouch. Still, no one really expected them to hit for power. But both of them + Ausmus in a lineup is a lot of guys that can't slug .400
Chris Burke: the bad? He's hitting .261. The good? He's slugging .522. I still don't understand why the Astros seem so set on having Biggio start at 2B when we have our TOP PROSPECT ready to go at that position.
Morgan Ensberg: well, he's not really young, but he's got 3 doubles and a HR in only 22 AB's, so maybe he's rediscovering his power stroke. I'll take an average of '03 and '04, which would put him at .280 / .370 / .450 or so. He'd make a fine #2 hitter, in my opinion.
Luke Scott: He's slugging .667, and he's left handed. He and
Carlos Rivera: have been a powerful combination (Rivera is slugging .824). I hope at least one of these guys makes the team, as we have one truly dangerous left handed hitter (Mike Lamb) at the moment.
Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth both have solid BB/K ratios (2/6 and 2/7, respectively), which I like to see.
Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, has SUCKED. A lot. 3 HR, 6 ER, and 5 walks in 5 innings. He's not close to being ready. Send him down to AAA and hope he finds his missing velocity sometime.
Chad Qualls should be our 8th inning set-up guy. 6 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K's? Pretty solid, Mr. Qualls.
John Franco. 6 hits. 6 walks. 3.2 innings. And the Mets got Beltran.
Chad Harville has been almost as bad as Franco. 7 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings. Yuck.
Ezequiel Astacio: 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K's, 0 runs in 3.1 innings. That's pretty good.
Summary:
Well, based on all this, here's my Opening Day Lineup:
Biggio LF
Ensberg 3B
Bagwell 1B
Lane CF
Scott RF
Burke 2B
Everett SS
Ausmus C
Oswalt SP
Clemens SP
Backe SP
Pettitte SP
Brandon Duckworth / Tim Redding SP (other one gets traded)
Brad Lidge
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Chad Harville
John Franco / Mike Gallo
Ezequiel Astacio
but they're still fun to talk about. Particularly for players trying to make the team. I'm not too concerned about how Biggio / Bagwell / Ausmus / Oswalt are doing, because they have an established level of performance. But the youngsters; well, that's another story. With that in mind, here are some interesting stats from a few of the young guys:
Jason Lane: 6 extra base hits, slugging .700, in 30 AB's. His defense might never be suited to CF, but he can hit for power. I'm hoping for a .280 / .350 / .500 line.
Adam Everett / Willy Taveras: hitting .276 and .308, respectively, with 7 SB and 0 CS.....but they've combined for 2 extra base hits in 55 AB's. Ouch. Still, no one really expected them to hit for power. But both of them + Ausmus in a lineup is a lot of guys that can't slug .400
Chris Burke: the bad? He's hitting .261. The good? He's slugging .522. I still don't understand why the Astros seem so set on having Biggio start at 2B when we have our TOP PROSPECT ready to go at that position.
Morgan Ensberg: well, he's not really young, but he's got 3 doubles and a HR in only 22 AB's, so maybe he's rediscovering his power stroke. I'll take an average of '03 and '04, which would put him at .280 / .370 / .450 or so. He'd make a fine #2 hitter, in my opinion.
Luke Scott: He's slugging .667, and he's left handed. He and
Carlos Rivera: have been a powerful combination (Rivera is slugging .824). I hope at least one of these guys makes the team, as we have one truly dangerous left handed hitter (Mike Lamb) at the moment.
Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth both have solid BB/K ratios (2/6 and 2/7, respectively), which I like to see.
Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, has SUCKED. A lot. 3 HR, 6 ER, and 5 walks in 5 innings. He's not close to being ready. Send him down to AAA and hope he finds his missing velocity sometime.
Chad Qualls should be our 8th inning set-up guy. 6 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K's? Pretty solid, Mr. Qualls.
John Franco. 6 hits. 6 walks. 3.2 innings. And the Mets got Beltran.
Chad Harville has been almost as bad as Franco. 7 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings. Yuck.
Ezequiel Astacio: 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K's, 0 runs in 3.1 innings. That's pretty good.
Summary:
Well, based on all this, here's my Opening Day Lineup:
Biggio LF
Ensberg 3B
Bagwell 1B
Lane CF
Scott RF
Burke 2B
Everett SS
Ausmus C
Oswalt SP
Clemens SP
Backe SP
Pettitte SP
Brandon Duckworth / Tim Redding SP (other one gets traded)
Brad Lidge
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Chad Harville
John Franco / Mike Gallo
Ezequiel Astacio
Thursday, March 17, 2005
Before I talk about the Astros, did anyone see my alma mater, Vanderbilt, beat Indiana IN Bloomington 67-60 in the first round of the NIT last night? The 'Dores lead the whole way, with a matchup zone defense and Corey Smith's 22 points or so leading the charge. A great win for Vandy, and it might just get Mike Davis fired. I think Vandy can definitely win a few more games in the NIT.
Ok, Astros time:
You probably already saw that the Stros let Pete Munro go yesterday.Garner is hinting that the race is between Ezequiel & Burba for the 5th spot. Have you been following Ausmus' batting stats this spring?--they're ridiculous. 2 for 2 again yesterday with a homer. Apparently he's added a leg kick to his swing. How much would he need to raise his BA over last year's to actually become an offensive asset?On the other hand, how many more runners would he have to throw out compared to last year to actually become a defensive asset?
- Dad
I saw a bit surprised (but not disappointed) when I saw the Astros released Pete Munro. We need to start eliminating 5th starter options, and Munro has the least potential of any possible #5 starter, and had a bad spring so far to boot. I like the move. I didn't know that Garner had narrowed it down to Astacio and Burba - if that's true, I hope Redding has another good spring start so we can get decent value from him in a trade, and I also think Duckworth is out of options. I'd still like to see Duckworth or Redding get the #5 starter position, since otherwise we'll have to release them, and give Astacio a little time in a middle relief role or at AAA. Dave Burba is, well, old, and I don't think he has too much left.
Ausmus is indeed having a crazy spring training, as are Luke Scott and Carlos Rivera. I did read that Ausmus added a leg kick to his swing, which appears to be helping, but I still trust his career batting average of .255 over 4730 AB's over a hot spring. Still, we've got no better options, so any improvement over last year's .248 / .306 / .325 would be really, really nice. Luke Scott has been great this spring; I'm pulling for him to make the team as a backup OF and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. He's a lefty power bat on a team that currently has one (Mike Lamb) while Lance is out. If Lamb starts, and you need a late inning pinch-hitter against a righty, your options would be Orlando Palmeiro or Jose Vizcaino if you're looking for a lefty batter. Similar comments would apply to Carlos Rivera, who's going crazy this spring. Unfortunately, he plays 1B, where Bagwell / Lamb / Lane might have him covered, but if he can learn an OF position that'd be great.
I just read Scott Barzilla's column on AstrosDaily (link in the upper left), and it's excellent. Check it out ASAP. Gotta run.
Ok, Astros time:
You probably already saw that the Stros let Pete Munro go yesterday.Garner is hinting that the race is between Ezequiel & Burba for the 5th spot. Have you been following Ausmus' batting stats this spring?--they're ridiculous. 2 for 2 again yesterday with a homer. Apparently he's added a leg kick to his swing. How much would he need to raise his BA over last year's to actually become an offensive asset?On the other hand, how many more runners would he have to throw out compared to last year to actually become a defensive asset?
- Dad
I saw a bit surprised (but not disappointed) when I saw the Astros released Pete Munro. We need to start eliminating 5th starter options, and Munro has the least potential of any possible #5 starter, and had a bad spring so far to boot. I like the move. I didn't know that Garner had narrowed it down to Astacio and Burba - if that's true, I hope Redding has another good spring start so we can get decent value from him in a trade, and I also think Duckworth is out of options. I'd still like to see Duckworth or Redding get the #5 starter position, since otherwise we'll have to release them, and give Astacio a little time in a middle relief role or at AAA. Dave Burba is, well, old, and I don't think he has too much left.
Ausmus is indeed having a crazy spring training, as are Luke Scott and Carlos Rivera. I did read that Ausmus added a leg kick to his swing, which appears to be helping, but I still trust his career batting average of .255 over 4730 AB's over a hot spring. Still, we've got no better options, so any improvement over last year's .248 / .306 / .325 would be really, really nice. Luke Scott has been great this spring; I'm pulling for him to make the team as a backup OF and get a few AB's while Berkman is hurt. He's a lefty power bat on a team that currently has one (Mike Lamb) while Lance is out. If Lamb starts, and you need a late inning pinch-hitter against a righty, your options would be Orlando Palmeiro or Jose Vizcaino if you're looking for a lefty batter. Similar comments would apply to Carlos Rivera, who's going crazy this spring. Unfortunately, he plays 1B, where Bagwell / Lamb / Lane might have him covered, but if he can learn an OF position that'd be great.
I just read Scott Barzilla's column on AstrosDaily (link in the upper left), and it's excellent. Check it out ASAP. Gotta run.
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