How bout them Aggies!?! Upset Syracuse 66-58 last night. Acie Law was magnificent, and the defense was stifling. I am officially the worst bracket-picker ever. I had Marquette in the Elite eight.

Not that anyone watched, but Rocket couldn't win for the USA, no thanks to Jeff Francouer and Vernon Wells. We lost to Mexico, 2-1 and didn't advance to the semis. It's Cuba vs. Dominican Republic and Japan vs. South Korea. Should be fun to watch.

Caught our 11-1 loss to the Yankees a couple days ago. Harold Reynolds interviewed Jeff Bagwell and asked him how he felt. "Today i would not be able to play in a major league game," he said. "But thats not to say that i couldn't in a couple of weeks." Same old, same old. I can't tell if he's being pessimistic or just honest.

How bout them Aggies!?! Upset Syracuse 66-58 last night. Acie Law was magnificent, and the defense was stifling. I am officially the worst bracket-picker ever. I had Marquette in the Elite eight.

Not that anyone watched, but Rocket couldn't win for the USA, no thanks to Jeff Francouer and Vernon Wells. We lost to Mexico, 2-1 and didn't advance to the semis. It's Cuba vs. Dominican Republic and Japan vs. South Korea. Should be fun to watch.

Caught our 11-1 loss to the Yankees a couple days ago. Harold Reynolds interviewed Jeff Bagwell and asked him how he felt. "Today i would not be able to play in a major league game," he said. "But thats not to say that i couldn't in a couple of weeks." Same old, same old. I can't tell if he's being pessimistic or just honest.

A Review of

The Last Nine Innings

by Charles Euchner

First of all, let me say that I truly enjoyed this book. Euchner does a great job covering many different baseball topics - sometimes I think he bites off a little more than he can chew, but more on that later.

The book is roughly based on the format of John McPhee's tennis classic, "Levels of the Game", in which McPhee uses a single tennis match between Arthur Ashe and Clark Graebner as an excuse to delve deep into both men's pasts, tennis, life, philosophy, and whatever else he can think of. It's an awesome book, and Euchner says as much in his introduction. His idea is to write a baseball book centered around Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, in which the Diamondbacks and the Yankees play one of the greatest baseball games of modern times.

During the 300 pages of the book, only about 50 will be devoted to on-field action - Euchner likes to take select ideas and run with them, whether it's the history of baseball, the art of pitching, the stats vs. scouts debate, the rise in foreign-born MLB players, etc, etc.

One minor complaint I have at this point is Euchner devotes much of the game's coverage to a few select players: Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Derek Jeter, Luis Gonzalez, Mariano Rivera. These guys are fascinating characters, no doubt, but I'd be equally interested in the bench players / rookies who aren't stars. Then again, that kind of book might not be as interesting to the casual fan.

My favorite section from the book come from the stats vs. scouts chapter, which Euchner neatly summarizes in an argument over Derek Jeter's fielding. I also especially enjoyed a short chapter on batting stances, from the strangeness of Craig Counsell's stance ("He looks like he was trying to knock a spider off the ceiling with a broom"..."He's beautiful.") to the open stance of Luis Gonzalez.

I could go into more detail, but if you want to learn more about a few of the hot topics in baseball or you're a fan of baseball in general or you remember the 2001 World Series fondly, I have one recommendation: Check out this book!

I'll write more about the book later; I have to run.

I'm loving the WBC! The games are intense, with managers and players from both sides giving it their all. Oh, wait... make that, every team but the USA. Sure, we're winning some ballgames, but I just don't see the same enthusiasm and energy from our guys as I see in Venezuela and Puerto Rico and even Korea and Japan. Did anyone see Chipper Jones hit into a double play after the shortstop fell down? Ugh. Now we gotta beat Mexico and hope Korea beats Japan.

I just saw Moises Alou sprint to first faster than I've ever seen him run. The DR just went up 1-0 on a botched roller by Miggy Cabrera for Venezuela. Can't believe one of those teams won't make the semifinal. But that makes this game all the more interesting to watch. Freddy Garcia vs. the Dominican lineup! Oh boy...

By the way, I saw Vince Sinisi playing CF and batting fifth for Team Italy. Big Vince led The Woodlands HS to a state title in 2000 and went to Rice, and he's a cousin of my buddy Garrett. Vince is in AA in the Rangers' system... maybe we'll see him in the majors someday.

I was watching an old Twilight Zone episode the other day... the one where a bunch of people are stuck in a diner and one of them is supposedly an alien. Cops are interrogating the suspects, and the first question they ask is, "Who won the World Series race last year?" Ah, baseball...

It might not feel or look like spring in Flagstaff, Arizona (30 inches of snow over the weekend), but when I turned on the TV and saw a baseball game (Japan / USA in the World Baseball Classic), it sure felt like spring.

I'm cruising through "The Last Nine Innings" - I should finish it early this week. The last chapter I read had an interesting take on the stats vs. scouts (Moneyball vs. Joe Morgan?) debate. I'll write all about it.

I haven't played poker online in close to 6 months, but after reading a little of "The Theory of Poker", by David Sklansky, I realize that I can't wait to start playing again. Not until I get the ol' master's degree, though.

I 'fixed' my I-Pod today: the headphone connection is scratched, but if I shove the headphones in as far as they'll go, then keep them squeezed tight (by placing the I-Pod upside down, or putting a book on top of it, etc.), it sounds great! This is good, since if it keeps snowing like this (although it's not supposed to) I'll be walking to school a lot.

We had ultimate frisbee practice despite 30+ mph winds and the first foot of snow on Friday afternoon (sound familiar, Andy?) It was awesome, although I need some new cleats.

Well, that's it. Astros lose 7-0 to the Dodgers - I know it's just spring training, but our offense isn't exactly lighting it up. No worries?

A quick Astros quote:

Josh Anderson, the Astros' fourth-round choice in the 2003 draft, has earned All-Star honors in each of his three seasons in professional baseball. He led Class AA Corpus Christi in hits (148) and steals (50) last year and was a Texas League All-Star.
"I set goals for myself every year, and last year, I look at it as being a great year," said Anderson, who throws righthanded. "I reached a lot of goals and I learned a lot playing a full season in Double-A, which was good for me. I definitely have no regrets the way things went.
"My goal for this year is as a top-of-the-order leadoff hitter to see a lot of pitches. I want to try to draw more walks, be selective."

Good stuff. Send that memo to Willy Taveras, while you're at it. The Astros are up 5-2 in today's game, thanks to a Charlton Jimerson grand slam. Steve Sparks has worked out of some trouble so far - he's walking guys and giving up hits left and right. Gotta run.

1. Write every day.

2. Write what you know.

- Charles Bukowski

Astros 3, Mets 2 - Zeke Astacio gets the win, with 3 scoreless innings in relief, O-Palm hits a HR, and Roy O gave up 2 runs in 4 innings, Chris Burke played some more SS, Jeff Bagwell got 3 AB's as a DH. That's about it.

Jeff Bagwell update:

Bagwell was quick to say that the shoulder doesn't affect his hitting. His bat is fine, no different than it's been in past Spring Trainings.
"I'm not very good in Spring Training," he said. "But as long as I'm seeing the ball and picking the spin up and things like that, then that's great.
"As I've said all along, the key here is can I throw and hit. Only time will tell that."

Wow, nice answer, Jeff. So no matter how badly you do in spring training, it's only because you're not very good yet, huh? It couldn't possibly be the shoulder. Way to leave youself an easy excuse.

I just received "The Last Nine Innings" in the mail yesterday, and I've been reading it every chance I get. Expect a review soon. I like the writing style a lot - it covers Game 7 of the 2001 Yankees - DBacks World Series, but manages to talk about almost every current baseball topic while doing so.

I don't know what to say about Barry Bonds. Do I think he used steroids? Yep. Do I think many other major leaguers, including Jeff Bagwell, also did? You bet. Asking him to retire is ridiculous. Just because he's a cocky asshole doesn't mean he should be singled out for doing what many others were doing at the same time.

Man, I love Rotoworld - tons of player notes and prospect lists. A sample:

Adam Everett was scratched from today's starting lineup with what the Astros are calling a sprained lower back.He's off to Houston for an examination, making it unlikely that he'll be back in the lineup on Friday. It might not be a bad thing for Everett to a miss a week or so, giving the Astros more of an opportunity to evaluate Chris Burke at shortstop.

More soon.

Oh man. Baseball. As in: BASEBALL.

The Astros lose again - good thing it's Spring Training. But the U.S. lost also to the mighty Canadian squad. Bah.

I was working out my schedule for my last sememster here at NAU and it is jam-freakin'-packed. Spring Break, Vegas, parents moving to Flagstaff, oral exams, finals, graduation....freedom! Oh, and writing about the Astros until I can't write no more! Speaking of which, Roger Clemens again said he's leaning towards retirement today - at least that's what he told USA Today. If he retires....well, I thought last year was a rebuilding year, but maybe this year would be the true rebuilding year.

Anyway, NAU lost in the conference championship to go to March Madness today. Damn. But I can still have a beer or two.

A piece of advice for Carlos Hernandez: do NOT hang a curveball to Big Papi. He will destroy you. And it's too bad, really, because until Papi's ENORMOUS two-run blast off Carlito (his second of the game), the Venezuela-Dominican Republic WBC matchup was fairly close. But Ortiz and Adrian Beltre, who also homered twice, were too much for the Venezuelan pitchers. Oh, Taveras went 0-for-4, but made some good plays in centerfield.

As for the Astros, well … they got beat down by the NY Metropolitans, 7-1. Nieve and Buchholz combined to give up seven runs in six innings, although each pitcher was only charged with one earned run thanks to sloppy defense up the middle. Burke committed yet another error, this time at second base. That's got to be his third or fourth error of the Spring. Not helping his chances of seeing time at short... Of course if he keeps crushing the ball (he hit another double today), it'll be hard to keep him out of the lineup. It sure woulda been nice to rough up Billy Wagner, but he went 1-2-3 against us. Bah.

I know Spring Training is meaningless (after all, the White Sox were 0-6 before winning Monday), but it's hard not to get excited about a 11-1 win. Of course, we started our best lineup (Biggio, Bagwell (DH), Berkman, Ensberg, Wilson, Lane, Ausmus, Everett, Palmeiro) against a bunch of scrub pitchers for the Nats. I could talk about how we batted around in the first inning; how Lane hit another homer; how we drew seven walks as a team … but I won't.

The big news was Brandon Backe. The kid threw three hitless innings and walked only one. And this was against Washington's "real" lineup, if you can call it that. No Soriano, but Vidro, Johnson, Church, Zimmerman, Tucker and Clayton couldn't do squat against Backe. Keep it up, big fella. Trever Miller K'd a couple in his inning: he's been putting up zeros so far. Qualls rebounded from an ugly outing over the weekend with a scoreless inning today.

I hope today's lineup is an indicator of Garner's master plan during the regular season. It's a shame to bench Willy T, but as pinch runner/defensive replacement, his best skills are still being used. Some folks think he ought to start the year at AAA Round Rock, but with Bagwell's (and Wilson's) injury concerns, he might as well stay up. Bagwell appears to be a good fit for the number two spot: he won't have the pressure of having to drive in runs but his keen batting eye and baserunning skills are still very good.

The order of Wilson and Lane shouldn't matter, as they actually are identical twins. Both have dominated so far this spring and might near 30 homers on the season. But whoever bats sixth in front of Ausmus and Everett might not get too many good pitches to see. Of course, those two never saw a pitch they didn't like, so maybe this isn't such a good thing after all.

J.R. House sure is getting a lot of playing time, just not at catcher. First base today, third base yesterday. He's been doing all right, too … maybe Garner should give him a start or two at catcher during a split-squad game to check out his defense and game-calling.

Astros all over the news lately. Spring training is in full swing, with a few positive signs. The WBC is also under way, with Japan and Korea advancing from Pool A. Those two will join the top two teams from America's pool (with Mexico, Canada and South Africa). Notable Astros playing: Lidge and Wheeler (USA), Carlos Hernandez (Venezuela), Taveras (Dominican), Gallo (Italy).

Berkman and Pettitte were on SportsCenter's The Weekend show on Sunday and were interviewed by Linda Cohn. Pettitte didn't have much to say about Clemens' possible return, but said that the team shouldn't bank on having him back — that we need to prepare to play the season with or without him. Berkman was a little critical of the WBC, suggesting it should occur every four years during the middle of the season, a la Olympic hockey. Not a bad suggestion; the U.S. needs as much help as it can get.

Spring training snippets

Friday: Houston 11, Cleveland 5. Bagwell actually led off at DH and scored a pair of runs. Chris Burke hit a triple and started at short, but didn't have to make any plays there. Lane went crazy with a homer and three RBI. Raul Chavez went 3-for-3 , Bruntlett drove in four, and Luke Scott started in center.
On the mound, Taylor Buchholz was brilliant, allowing one hit in two innings. Fernando Nieve got lit up for four runs on four hits and a walk in his two innings, though he struck out three. Jason Hirsh allowed one run on three hits in two.

Saturday: Atlanta 10, Houston 6. Ensberg homered and Preston Wilson went 2-for-2, beating out an infield single and lining a double down the left-field line. "We have a chance to be a really good ballclub," he said. "Hopefully, I'll help the team enough to get us to that next level." Biggio got a pair of hits leading off, and Bagwell went 1-for-3 at DH again. Burke played a couple more innings at short again, and Luke Scott hit a triple while playing center.
Oswalt started and threw 19 pitches in two innings — 15 for strikes. He gave up two hits with a strikeout, throwing only fastballs and curves. "It was nothing major," he said. "I'm staying with basic stuff until I get it going." He said he'll put off work on a changeup and slider until later in the spring. Last year, he tinkered with a split-fingered fastball, then realized his primary pitches had suffered. "I worked on that more than I worked on the basic stuff, so I lost the feel for the first few games of the season," he said.
Wandy and Qualls both got lit up for four runs, but Trever Miller looked sharp.

Sunday: Dominican Republic 12, Houston 8. Here was the lineup for the Dominican: Soriano, Tejada, Pujols, Ortiz, Alou, Beltre, Peña (Willy Mo), Encarnacion, Castillo. Them's good. We started Biggio, Bagwell (DH), Berkman, Ensberg, Wilson, Burke (SS), Palmeiro, Ausmus and Scott. Zeke started and gave up two runs on three hits and four walks. Sparks, Sampson, Muecke and Gutierrez didn't do much better. The big news: Burke committed a fielding error at shortstop and (I think) didn't convert another possible out, though it wasn't scored an error. He did, however, stroke a two-run double in the 5th. Willy Taveras pinch ran for DR (a role that he's perfect for) and scored in the 6th. But somehow he grounded into a double play in the 7th! And apparently Juan Gutierrez pitched the top of the ninth for the ASstros, changed uniforms mid-inning and threw the bottom of the inning for the Dominican! That's awesome.

Split squad: Philly 4, Houston 3. Wow. We actually lost to the Phillies. Good thing it doesn't matter. Not much here: Everett, Lane, Bruntlett and Quintero were the only major leaguers who played. We let a bunch of rookies pitch, and they all did pretty well: Borkowski, Paulino, Albers, Gothreauz and Estrada gave up only one run through 8 innings before Peguero gave up four in 1 1/3. Oh well.

Next up: Washington Monday, NY Mets on Tuesday, Toronto on Wednesday, Mets again Thursday, Washington again Friday. Bagwell should get some time in the field soon enough.

The Astros played their 1st spring training game today, losing 5-2 to the Indians. Craig Biggio and Eric Munson had RBI singles and Steve Sparks gave up all 5 runs (4 earned). Lots of players got a few at-bats; according to Phil Garner, Jeff Bagwell will DH in Friday's game.

I'm heading down to Tucson for an ultimate frisbee tournament tomorrow. Maybe Andy can write a post or two about the next few Astros ST games? Ah, baseball.

I think it's time for an Aaron Gleeman-inspired Link-O-Rama:

I think it's hilarious that Roger Clemens gave up a first-pitch HR to his son Koby and followed that up with a high-and-inside fastball the next time they faced off. Good job, Rocket.

I had forgotten what a tough year Adam Everett had last year - and it had nothing to do with baseball. Here's wishing him the best for this coming year. And maybe an occasional walk or two.

Nice chat with Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus here - he tabs Roy Oswalt as one of the ten most valuable commodities in baseball. I hope he's an Astro for a long time.

The Hardball Times doesn't like our offseason, ranking us 26th out of 30 teams in this list.

My Dad's in town for a few days to check out a house that they somehow bought without ever seeing it in person! This is very unlike my parents. Maybe they're becoming risk takers in their old age.

As major league baseball players everywhere start reporting to camp, I'm starting my fantasy baseball research for this year. I'd be the first one to admit that the categories in fantasy baseball (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters, W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K for pitchers) don't correlate very well to real-life success, but I can adapt. Plus there's money and trash-talking involved.

Here's what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine has to say about the 2006 Astros:

"By standing pat over the winter, the NL champs have weakened themselves. Houston needed a combined 675 innings from their top 3 starters at a 2.43 ERA to win the wildcard. Roger Clemens claims he's not returning...If the Big Three can't repeat, another starter has to step up...Brandon Backe is not recommended...The back end of the rotation only needs to reach the sixth inning because of Houston's excellent bullpen. Minute Maid Park makes any righty hitter a good bet...Craig Biggio looks like he's had it, as evidenced by his age and his .235 - 7 - 20 line away from home...Don't expect Jason Lane or Willy Taveras to get much better."

Well, I may be pessimistic, but I have to agree with most of their comments. We certainly haven't gotten better this offseason - even if Clemens returns, the Big Three can't be as good as last year and we're still looking at Taveras, Everett, and Ausmus in the lineup. If everything breaks right for us we could still be right there in the hunt, but that could be a big if. An injury to Berkman or Ensberg or Oswalt or Pettitte spells doom, and we need Jason Lane, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ezequiel Astacio to be solid all year. Don't get me wrong, I'll root like hell for this team, and watch as many games as I can, but it will be an uphill climb. Then again, that seems to be our preference these last few years.

I was supposed to fly down to Baton Rouge for a reunion with some old friends this weekend. I got about 30 miles from Flagstaff (I was flying out of Phoenix) when my front left tire blew out and took a hefty chunk of my front left fender (directly above the tire) with it. I called AAA, and they said it wasn't safe to drive - too much exposed wiring. I had to get towed back to Flagstaff. I called the folks to see if there were any later flights, but nothing worked out well and I still would have had to figure out a way to get back to Flagstaff at midnight on Sunday night. On the bright side, it's been time for me to get a new-ish car for a while now - no more putting it off.

It's a beautiful day outside (up to 55/60 degrees in Flagstaff these days), so off I go.

Andy's latest post was #450 at The Juice Box. Huzzah! I am also thrilled that baseball is back, and I'm pumped to start reading spring training updates, preparing for my fantasy baseball draft, and start posting every single day (or more) again. It has been an interesting offseason for our family - it looks like my parents will be moving out to join me in Flagstaff, which I'm sure they'll enjoy. It will be nice having them around, especially because their house has an indoor hot tub.

I will indeed have a big decision in May. I will graduate from NAU with a Master's Degree in Statistics, and don't plan on starting a PhD program anytime soon, so it looks like I'll have to find a real job. Or will I? At the moment my most likely next step would be to get a job as an instructor in the math & statistics department here. I've enjoyed teaching, it's an excellent department, I can keep doing a few river trips in the summer, I stay in Flagstaff, I get summers off....the list goes on. It makes a lot of sense. Maybe too much sense? Another option would be to try and find a job as a baseball statistician. I've been really lazy with this, and I haven't sent out any resumes lately. I have a feeling that as much as I like writing about and reading about baseball statistics, I might not like working in that field nearly as much. Maybe it's just my imagination? The third main option would be some kind of service to the country. Peace Corps / Teach for America / etc. - something in that vein. I'd like to give something back although I don't agree with a few current political situations. And the dark horse would be to take a year off and travel around the world, writing updates on my blog and having a great time. The sensible answer would be to do that later since I just did that 2 years ago, but the romantic in me says that once I start a real job it won't be so easy to get away. All right, that's enough about that. We'll see what happens.

I was going to write about what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine said about the Astros and their top players, but I left it at home. Oops. Next post coming soon.

Pitchers & Catchers!

Baseball's back! Finally! It's been a cold and miserable weekend in Houston, but my heart is aglow with baseball fever. Oh, what joy I felt when I saw Roy, Brad, Andy and Brandon in Astro uniforms again! It really was a surreal moment knowing that the next eight months will be filled with our great national pasttime.

It has been a weird offseason, both for the Astros and the Wade family. The team didn't do a whole heck of a lot, making their customary conservative and modest — if not downright boring — moves like adding Trever Miller and re-signing Brad Ausmus. We took a gamble not offering Clemens arbitration, but I truly think he's only seriously considering two clubs: the Astros or the AARP. Our most productive move was the addition of Preston Wilson. He immediately improves our lineup ad our bench, but his presence alone won't solve our offensive woes.

In the Wade family, things were a little more shaken up. Jack will have a big decision coming up after graduating this Spring. The parents will be joining him after buying a house in Flagstaff this week. Andy, meanwhile, will be the lone Texas representative come summer after taking a job with a newspaper in Bryan.

But back to our favorite ball club. In the Chronicle and on local television coverage, all the pitchers and catchers mentioned the short offseason, referring to the extra month of baseball they played in the playoffs.

Chad Qualls: "It came too quick. This is the shortest offseason I've ever had. … I might actually need these six weeks to get back into shape a little bit."

Mike Gallo: "It feels like I just got done playing about a month ago."

What are these guys talking about? To me, it feels like years since the World Series ended. I've been waiting months for Spring Training, and it'll probably feel like another few months 'til the season actually starts.

Pettitte specifically mentioned the absence of his partner in crime: "For the last seven years we've been sidekicks. There's no doubt I miss him being down here, for sure." Many players, coaches and regular folks around Houston appear confident Clemens will return in May, but it's anything but a sure thing. He says he won't know until after the WBC if he's going to play, so we'll just have to wait it out...

A few hilarious tidbits from Kissimmee:

• Garner received a gift from a friend in Russia: a bulava, which is a war club with a sharp points on the head (think Final Fantasy). "It's a symbol of power," Garner said. "I'm going to use this on reporters and players." (Sometimes I think Richard Justice could use a little macing…)

• Garner also didn't recognize Russ Springer when he walked into the manager's office. "Wheels? Did you lose some weight?" Garner asked, referring to Dan Wheeler. Apparently Garner's old anf confused and sometimes mixes up those two. Hope that never happends during close games.

Chris Burke was the first position player to roll into camp. Of of our hitters, I think Burke has the most to prove. Right now, he's our No. 1 option off the bench if anyone gets hurt. He's doesn't have a starting job this year (or even a platoon position), so he's got to earn every at-bat he gets. Burke has been asked to play shortstop on occasion this spring in addition to second base and the outfield.

The Chronicle had a nice piece on Lidge's mentality heading into 2006. He's saying all the right things and really doesn't seem upset on his disappointing postseason. Unlike everyone else, he's more focused on the upcoming season than the finished one.

Lastly, I'll list some random personal thoughts about Spring Training and the season as a whole:

• Don't simply ignore the elephant in the room that is Bagwell's shoulder. He should be examined and cleared to participate before every workout. He's a great player but also a very large investment, and we need to make sure he's taken care of. And if he's unable to participate, an ultimatum has to be reached.

• The back of the rotation should be open to everyone. In my mind, neither Wandy nor Zeke pitched well enough last year to earn "frontrunner" status entering 2006. Give Hernandez, Hirsh and Nieve equal opportunities to prove themselves.

• Let Preston Wilson play some centerfield. I know he'd be a disaster in The Juicebox, what with all the nooks and crannies. But If Bagwell can play, Taveras should under no circumstances take at-bats away from Lane or Wilson.

• See what the younguns can do. Luke Scott played like a bat out of hell in Venezuela. If he keeps it up, how can we leave him off our roster?

• Backe finally has pressure on him. Right now, he's our third starter, which means he needs to be a) good and b) reliable. Everyone knows he can pitch great games, but he has yet to pitch well throughout a whole season. It's about time he chanelled his playoff energy into every start. If he can't, he might not have a chance to make another great postseason start.

• Lastly, Ausmus and Everett better recognize that we almost replaced them this winter, and for good reason: They can't hit. I am sick to death of the "defense-minded" cop-out. It's fine if Ausmus doesn't hit for much power, but he needs to contribute at the plate by having good at-bats, taking pitches, making contact and driving the ball. He did this last year, but can he keep it up? And I wish Everett would finally get it through his head that we don't want him hitting home runs. We need him to get on base, and that means not trying to pull the ball all the time. Hell, take a bunting lesson from Willy. Get. On. Base.

I just finished watching the NBA All-Star Game. It was cool being in Houston and all, but the actual game was preposterous. I think Shaq dunked a ball in the fourth quarter and hung on the rim until his team came back to his end of the court. Admittedly, the game meant absolutetly nothing. Also admittedly, basketball is something of a showboat sport, at least more so than baseball. Players often hang on rims and pump up the crowd with various antics. This never happens in baseball. The closest thing I can think of is Barry Bonds lifting up Torii Hunter for robbing him of a home run. But at least that was between innings. In the MLB All-Star game, people watch to see great players play baseball, and it's often a great game. In the NBA All-Star game, many people watch to see a great game, but at least as many watch to see who's going to bring down the house with a huge dunk or a stylish lay-up. This isn't necessarily a bad thing — I don't think it takes away from the game either way — but the NBA ASG seems like more of a laugher than anything else. At least in baseball, they play for home-field advantage, but I don't think this would change a whole lot in the NBA. Oh well...

Spring Training!

Is anyone excited about the World Baseball Classic? Does anyone care? I'm not losing any sleep over it, but fan interest seems to be virtually nonexistent. At least in the States. But what's more disgraceful is that players don't want to represent America. I keep seeing guys pull out of the WBC because they want to be ready for Spring Training. They signed a big contract, and they want to honor it. They want to make sure they're completely healthy. What a load of crap. I can understand pitchers who've undergone surgery, but come on! Grow a pair. I think starting pitchers will only throw three or four games anyway. As for the hitters, there's no excuse not to get out there and play your heart out for your country. That's what all the other countries are going to do.

What's really going to bug me is when we lose to Belize or Ecuador or the one-man team that is The Netherlands, everyone will get all pissed off about it. Of course we're going to lose. But only when we do will people whine about not playing. This could be the best baseball gig in decades, but the players are making it the worst.

Meanwhile, the Astros still face a rotation conundrum. As in, who starts after Oswalt, Pettitte and Backe. We got Wandy and Zeke, our (Ha!) experienced pitchers; Hirsh and Buchholz, our true rookies; and Carlos Hernandez, our ace-in-the-hole finally back from injury. We ought to give Carlos as much of a chance as everyone else. I'm sure we will. I've heard he's back up to the low-90s on his fastball. This guy was pretty good way back when in '02 and '03. It's taken him a lot longer than normal to recover, but he might be the guy that steps up and performs.

Andy and I met up for some fun in the sun in Las Vegas this past weekend. We were there to play ultimate for Northwestern, despite the fact that neither of us currently go to that fine university. It was a great time; we played 4 of the top 10 teams in the country and played them close, including a sweet JWade-to-AWade connection for a score against #1 Wisconsin. I, of course, take all the credit. I also won a mighty $8 at poker - watch out, world. Oh, and no strip clubs, sadly. But In-N-Out Burger? You're goddamn right.

Not too much to talk about regarding the Astros. Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days! Holy crap. I better start doing my fantasy baseball research (JT's already started). Lance Berkman says he doesn't care if he plays OF or 1B, which is good, 'cause we might not know for a few weeks yet. Phil Garner says Wandy and Zeke are the favorites for the #4 and #5 spots but Jason Hirsh, Carlos Hernandez and Fernando Nieve will be looked at (good), and he still prefers two lefties in the bullpen (despite teams such as the Angels and...someone else...doing just fine without any lefties). Bagwell is still iffy, Chris Burke should get some AB's at shortstop, and Opening Day can't come soon enough.

The Astros avoided arbitration with Morgan Ensberg, agreeing to a 1 year / 3.5 million dollar deal. This is a good move, obviously - the question is whether we should have tried to sign Ensberg to a longer deal. I'm a huge Ensberg fan - he hit .283 / .388 / .557 with 36 bombs and 85 walks, which is absolutely huge. However, he is already 30 years old, and I believe he doesn't reach free agency until after '08 (edit: it could well be '07, though). I don't think a multi-year deal is necessary at this point. If he puts up another big year or two, then go for it. Of course, it might cost us more then...

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Rocket will return to the Astros on May 1. If so, GREAT! Wandy and Zeke both starting all year...yikes. I like the idea of Wandy and Zeke having a 'tryout' in April and whoever does better becomes the 5th starter at that point, with the other moving to the bullpen. This might just help Clemens stay strong all year - he looked tired in September and October. And he is 43.

Purpura and Garner have finally decided to try playing Chris Burke at SS occasionally. This is awesome. Burke needs playing time wherever he can get it, and it looks like that will be at 2B (where I hope he starts once a week, to pace Biggio) and SS. Management has said that Burke doesn't have the arm for SS, but 1) he played there in college and 2) David Eckstein is still in the majors, isn't he? It's definitely worth a shot, particulary with 654 OPS Adam Everett there otherwise.

I'm heading to Vegas this weekend to watch (and play in) a big college ultimate tournament. Hopefully I won't lose too much money while I'm there - you'd think my statistical background would prevent that. You'd think....

Astros avoid arbitration with Ensberg, who signs for the midpoint at $3.8 million. Huzzah. by the way, he made 500K last year! Should we consider a long-term deal? Not necessarily. The big fella's already 30, and he'll be an Astro for at least three more years. Whether we sign him to a deal that takes him through those years or not doesn't really matter. If Morgan dominates each year, he'll get more money from the organization, which is what I fully expect him to do.

After the boring Super Bowl, I can't stop thinking about baseball. Only four weeks 'til pitchers and catchers! In my spare time at work, I thought I'd talk about a few teams I think might surprise next year. We start in Toronto:

Blue Jays
Rotation: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, Towers
Lineup: Johnson/Catalanotto, Aaron Hill, Wells, Overbay, Glaus, Hillenbrand/Hinske, Molina, Rios, Russ Adams
Bullpen: Ryan, Chulk, Downs, Frasor, Schoeneweis, Speier, Walker

I love it when owners 1) have a plan about their team and 2) are honest with their fans about it. I loved it when the Indians said it was time to rebuild and dumped Thome, Colon, Alomar, and all their stars that led the team in the late '90s. They made smart trades, got a bazillion prospects and, after only three or four years, are back among the AL elites.

The Blue Jays are similar, but opposite. Management finally said the time is right to increase payroll and construct an exciting, competitive team. They couldn't have asked for better timing. The Red Sox and Yankees are on the verge of self-destruction, and the door is open for a run at the AL East.

The Jays' offseason moves were a little, shall we say, over-the-top. Forking over $100 million dollars for two pitchers is a bit Steinbrenner-esque. Nonetheless, management lived up to its promise to sign playmakers, and A.J. and B.J. certainly fit that bill. Now, after waiting for Bengie Molina's price tag to drop a few million dollars, they collected three of the top free agents available.

On the trade market, the Jays were also big players… almost too big. They snagged Overbay from the Brewers and traded the still-young Orlando Hudson to Arizona for a rejuvenated Troy Glaus. For 2006, they're probably better off. But the trades left them with about twenty-two corner infielders. They traded Koskie to the Brew Crew, but they still have Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand and Hinske.

Meanwhile, their middle infield is less than proven. Russ Adams was decent in '05 at shortstop, and would give the team a boost if he repeast last year's .700 OPS. Will LSU grad Aaron Hill assume full-time second-base duties with Hudson's departure? He has upside after a .727-OPS rookie campaign, but is he ready? Wells can be an all-star, but he's been on the decline since 2003. If Alex Rios can live up to his potential and Catalanotta and Reed Johnson don't drop off, the Blue Jays can definitely do some damage.

Last year the Jays' lineup was unbelievably consistent: Every hitter posted an OPS between .700 and .800. With Glaus, Overbay and Molina, the middle of the lineup will be able to score a few more runs.

The rotation is definitely top five in baseball. Burnett may not win 20 games, but he most likely won't implode. Chacin and Towers were great last year, but can they do it again? Lilly posted the worst numbers (5.56, 1.53) since he became a regular starter in 2001, but he might bounce back to league-average. Schoeneweis can make a spot start or two.

If the rotation and the lineup are as stable as last year's and the new additions live up to their billing, the Jays are money. In either case, management has set the team up for an exciting run in '06.

Cubbies
Rotation: Prior, Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch, Williams, (Wood?, Wade Miller?)
Lineup: Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Perez/Cedeño
Bullpen: Eyre, Howry, Ohman, Williamson, Wuertz, Dempster

Yea, I know… they're the Cubs. They've had great teams on paper since 2002, but it really seems like they just don't want to win. Or maybe they don't know how. Still, with guys like Prior, Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez, it's hard to count them out.

Much like the Blue Jays, they overpaid a couple of pitchers. Unfortunately for them, Eyre and Howry might only combine for 150 innings. Still, those two are pretty good. When all is said and done, it's really not about the money, it's about the talent. Dempster was better than expected last year, but he's no elite closer.

I don't think even the Cubs realize how good their rotation can be. Prior and Zambrano are amazing pitchers. Rusch and Williams aren't spectacular but are capable of 4.00 ERAs. Greg Maddux is slipping, but he is Greg Maddux. Obviously, Kerry Wood isn't going to pitch 200 innings anytime soon. Probably not even 100. But as soon as Dusty stops screwing around with his arm, he can be effective out of the pen.

The Cubs actually traded prospects to the Marlins so that they could pay Juan Pierre $6 million for one year. That's not a terrific idea. Of course, Corey Patterson wasn't about to be good again. Not at Wrigley anyway. And after Rafael Furcal went to La-la land, the Cubs needed to move fast to acquire a leadoff man. As long as Dusty keeps Neifi Perez as far away from the top of the order as possible, Lee and Ramirez will actually have runs to drive in.

It's hard to say what the Cubs' outfield will do in 2006. Murton was fantastic in his limited time last year, but it may have been a fluke. Everyone knows Jacque Jones can't hit lefties, but will Dusty use him accordingly? Chicago doesn't really have a good platoon partner for him yet, although Murton would seem to be a perfect fit. Maybe they'll make another move, such as signing Richard Hidalgo.

The middle infield is also up in the air. I'm a big fan of Todd Walker. He's posted an .820 OPS in his two years with the club, but no one in the organization seems to care. Dusty might even sub him out for Jerry Hairston, a mistake. At shortstop, the Cubs are in trouble. Ronny Cedeño is a decent prospect, but he probably isn't ready to be a regular shortstop.

Michael Barrett is awesome. I know, I know… we're supposed to hate him because of the Oswalt thing. But how many catchers in the NL can put up an .800 OPS consistently? Maybe I'm just jealous since we got Ausmus and all.

It's going to take a lot for the Cubs for make the playoffs in 2006. They have the personnel to do it, but can they all keep it together? After all, they are the Cubs.

Rangers
Rotation: Millwood, Eaton, Padilla, … … … John Wasdin … … um … … Kameron Loe?
Lineup: Young, Wilkerson, Teixeira, Blalock, Mench, Nevin, Barajas, Delluci/Nix, DeRosa
Bullpen: Otsuka, Cordero … … … Leicester … … … R.A. Dickey … … … Benoit … … and that's about it.

It only took five years for the Rangers to step up and sign a decent pitcher. Orel Herscheiser can only do so much. Kevin Millwood probably won't lead the AL in ERA again, but he will bring stabilization to a pitching staff that desperately needed it. Eaton and Padilla are capable of being winners, even though Chris Young would have been the better option. I honestly don't know much about the back of the rotation starters. I remember hearing Loe's name a couple of times last yearm but I doubt he'll be a ROTY candidate. They just need a couple of guys who can step up consistently and hopefully keep the game in single digits. Now, if they go out and sign Jeff Weaver, the rotation will be set. (They desperately need Clemens, but I won't even comment on that possibility).

Michael Young was the best shortstop in the game last year. He's knocked in 190 runs in two years as the Rangers' leadoff man. For any other team, Soriano would be hard to replace. The Rangers might actually be better off without him. DeRosa's nothing special, but Soriano wasn't a top-of-the-order guy. Wilkerson or Dellucci will fit better in the #2 spot. We all know what Teixeira can do, but he'll need more balance from the rest of the lineup. Blalock must return to his 2004 form, and Nevin must prove he can still play. If that happens, and Mench doesn't let his all the trade banter go to his head (ha, ha), the Rangers' lineup will once again be among the best in baseball.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the AL West will remind us of last year's NL West. The Angels are considerably worse, and and the Mariners aren't getting a whole lot better. The A's did almost won 90 games last year, but I'm skeptical of Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Dan Johnson and Mark Ellis. The A's actually have a decent rotation and bullpen, which is more than the Rangers can say. All Texas has is Kevin Millwood and Orel Herscheiser.

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These three teams could all make the playoffs in October. It's much more likely that none of them does. The Jays have the best chance, but I wouldn't count the Cubs and Rangers out — if nothing else, they could surprise a lot of folks.