Well, we came within one win of the World Series. If that was indeed Jeff Kent's last home AB in front of the crowds that began going Astro crazy in the 2nd half of the year, it was a mighty good one.

I'm almost embarrassed to admit this, but I get as excited (maybe even more so) about the offseason than the actual baseball season. With that in mind, here's my Astro Offseason Overview:

2004-2005 Free Agents
Catchers:

Astros have: Brad Ausmus, 248/306/325, 5 HR, 20 XBH, 33 BB in 403 AB.

Considered Free Agents:
Jason Varitek, 296/390/482, 18 HR, 49 XBH, 62 BB in 463 AB.
Doug Mirabelli, 281/368/525, 9 HR, 21 XBH, 19 BB in 160 AB.
Damian Miller, 272/339/403, 9 HR, 34 XBH, 39 BB in 397 AB.

Varitek will re-sign with Boston, and probably Mirabelli also. I’d really like to see us at least try to sign Miller, simply because Ausmus is now beyond terrible and should be relegated to backup catcher duty for the rest of his natural life. Miller has had patience beaten into him since he played for the A’s, and he’s capable defensively. Sign him up!

First Base/DH:

Jeff Bagwell, 266/377/465, 27 HR, 58 XBH, 96 BB in 572 AB. The end nears. He’s not there yet, and he can still be a valuable player, but he’s no longer worth what he makes.

Olmedo Saenz, 279/352/504, 8 HR, 9 XBH, 12 BB in 111 AB. Might make a nice pickup - anytime you're running Everett/Ausmus/P in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, it doesn't hurt to have good pinch hitters in close games.

Second Base:

Jeff Kent, 289/348/531, 27 HR, 69 XBH, 49 BB in 540 AB. The Astros declined his option, and I think he's probably done. He's definitely on the downside of his career, and he wasn't truly spectacular for us, and he's crap in the field, but he had some big hits, and I'll never forget the look on his face as he flipped his helmet off in Game 5 of the NLCS in 2004.

Chris Burke (see waaaay below, Astros minor league stars)

Craig Biggio? (see below, under Astros OFs) Jason Lane deserves a major league job even more than Chris Burke does (Lane is 28!), so I think it's a likelihood that Biggio moves back to 2B and Lane takes over in LF.

Third Base:

Morgan Ensberg, 275/330/411, 10 HR, 33 XBH in 411 ABB. What happened? If you believe in conspiracy theories, the final insult in Jimy Williams' time as Astros manager may have been convincing Ensberg to play more small ball, advance the runner, hit the ball the other way, and bunt more often, instead or crushing 25 HR and drawing 48 BB in 385 AB like he did last year. Or maybe those back spasms were more serious than he let on. Either way, it was a lost year for Ensberg.

Mike Lamb, 288/356/511, 14 HR, 31 XBH in 278 AB. This Gerry Hunsicker trade right before the year started didn't get much press, but it worked out great. Lamb had a fine year, and seemed to come through in the clutch more often than not. Pretty much terrible in the field, but he makes a great platoon partner or bat off the bunch. Nice signing, and I hope to see him back in '05.

Mike Coolbaugh (see Astros Minor League Stars)


Shortstop:

Adam Everett, 273/317/385, 8 HR, 25 XBH, 17 BB, 13 SB, 2 CS in 384 AB. NEED. MORE. WALKS. Someone needs to tell AE that he’s a little guy, and he needs to stop swinging for the fences and start drawing more walks. He’s a great baserunner, and does damage when he gets aboard, but a 317 OBP ain’t cutting it.

Jose Vizcaino, 274/311/374, 3 HR, 25 XBH, 20 BB in 358 AB. SET HIM FREEEEEEEEEEEE. Please, no more Viz. He actually didn't do terribly, but he's overpaid, old, subpar offensively, defensively, and is basically the symbol for everything that I think is wrong sometimes with baseball teams preferring old, 'proven', more expensive veterans to young, cheap players with potential (Alfaro, Conrad!, Chris Burke if Biggio plays 2b!) Please let the 2005 'Stros be Viz-free.

*Note - I'm tired, so that's all for now. I'll finish up the OF next time.*

Outfield:

Craig Biggio. He'll be back - the Astros picked up his 3 million option.

Carlos Beltran

Lance Berkman

Jason Lane

Orlando Palmeiro

Ben Grieve, 260/361/424, 8 HR, 25 XBH, 39 BB in 250 AB. The patience from the A’s organization hasn’t completely worn off, and he’s not a disaster in the field. A 785 OPS from a LH bat off the bench wouldn’t hurt.


Pitchers:

Roy Oswalt, SP

Andy Pettitte, SP

Wade Miller, SP

Brandon Backe, SP

SP:

Brad Radke


Bullpen:

Brad Lidge, CL
Chad Qualls, RP
Dan Wheeler, RP
Mike Burns, RP
Pete Munro, RP
Ezequiel Astacio / D.J. Houlton, RP


RHRP:
Steve Reed (option declined)
Ramiro Mendoza
Scott Williamson
Jim Mecir
Antonio Osuna

2005 Astros Minor League Stars

AAA New Orleans
Batters

Chris Burke, 2B, , 315/396/507, 16 HR, 55 XBH, 55 BB, 37 SB, 14 CS in 483 AB.
He’s ready. Postseason heroics aside, we should ignore sentimentality and let Jeff Kent ride his motorcycle off into the sunset. Burke put up a 903 OPS in a pitcher’s park, showed good patience and surprising power, and didn’t embarrass himself in the field (11 errors, compared to Kent’s ). Meet the newest Killer B.

Royce Huffman, 1B, 309/393/450, 10 HR, 52 XBH, 71 BB in 531 AB. Not too much pop for a 1B, although he showed good patience. However, we’ve got Bagwell entrenched, and by the time he’s done, hopefully Todd Self will be ready or Berkman will shift over.

Mike Coolbaugh, 3B, 295/368/592, 30 HR, 60 XBH, 47 BB in 404 AB. Check out that slugging percentage! 60 extra bases hits in 404 at-bats is damn good. This guy’s got some serious pop, although he’s probably not very fast, based on his 2 stolen bases and 0 triples. Had 11 errors, compared with Ensberg’s . I like this guy, and I’d love to see him get a long look in spring training. If nothing else, it makes either Ensberg or Lamb a little more expendable.

Jason Alfaro, UTIL, 325/363/477, 13 HR, 45 XBH, 26 BB in 465 AB. Not very patient, and most of his OBP is tied up in batting average. That said, he’s probably better than Jose Vizcaino as a utility guy (he played SS, 2B, 3B, and OF) and 750,000 cheaper.

Pitchers

Chris Enochs, SP, 112.2 IP, 114 H, 35 BB, 92 K, 11 HR allowed, 4.15 ERA. The best of a pretty thin lot at AAA. Not ready for The Show just yet.


AA Round Rock
Batters

Brooks Conrad, 2B, 290/365/475, 13 HR, 57 XBH, 63 BB in 480 AB. Showed good pop and excellent patience for a 2B; also is a switch hitter. I said Jason Alfaro could replace Viz, but I’d rather see this guy do it. A lot of potential here – just needs at-bats against major league pitching.

Todd Self, 1B, 315/420/460, 11 HR, 56 XBH, 89 BB in 476 AB. Not a lot of power for a young 1B in a hitter’s park, but check out the OBP! That’s damn good, AND he’s left-handed. Think along the lines of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay, although he’s not that good. Still, a definite prospect.

Willy Taveras, OF, 335/402/386, 2 HR, 16 XBH, 38 BB, 55 SB, 11 CS in 409 AB. Has mastered the art of having a higher OBP than SLG. That said, probably the most overrated Astros prospect. Yeah, he hit .335, but he didn’t walk and didn’t hit for power. Would be fine as a 5th OF/late-inning defensive (Biggio) replacement, pinch-runner. Does not deserve a starting job in the major leagues.

Luke Scott, OF. 298/401/654(!!), 19 HR, 36 XBH, 33 BB in 208 AB. He LED the team in HR…in only 208 AB!!!! Think that Jeriome Robertson trade worked out all right? His numbers may have been a bit flukey, but this guy has major-league power, bats lefty, and walked a lot. Deserves a long look in ST.

Tommy Whiteman, SS. 336/381/473, 8 HR, 22 XBH, 20 BB in 277 AB. Good batting average, but in a hitter’s park, and made 14 errors in only 68 games. Pass.

Pitchers

Ezequiel Astacio, SP. 176 IP, 155 H, 56 BB, 185 K, 12 HR, 3.89 ERA. Taylor Bucholz struggled, but this guy (the other big catch in the Wagner trade) sure didn’t. Over a strikeout per inning, and a WHIP just over 1, and only 12 HR allowed! Looking good. Should be ready soon.

Mike Burns, RP. 80.2 IP, 63 H, 15 BB, 94 K, 1 HR, 1.67 ERA. Those are Lidge numbers, people. This guy was lights out all year.

D.J. Houlton, SP. 159 IP, 141 H, 47 BB, 159 K, 14 HR, 2.94 ERA. Another surprisingly good season from a pitching prospect at AA. Good K/BB ratio, 3 CG. A stud.

Santiago Ramirez, RP. 78.2 IP, 71 H, 38 BB, 83 K, 2 HR, 2.63 ERA. A lot of walks, a lot strikeouts. Pass for now.



Conclusion:

Chris Burke is ready for a starting major league job.
Mike Coolbaugh is our new 3B prospect.
Brooks Conrad would be great as a backup middle infielder.
Todd Self is a LH OBP machine at 1B. Test at AAA.
Luke Scott has the most power of any minor league Astro. Test at AAA.
Mike Burns should be in the 2005 Astros bullpen.
Ezequiel Astacio and D.J. Houlton are getting close. Test at AAA.

Jack’s 2005 Astros

C- Damian Miller (2/4?)
1B – Jeff Bagwell
2B – Chris Burke / Craig Biggio
SS – Adam Everett
3B – Morgan Ensberg / Mike Lamb / Mike Coolbaugh
LF – Craig Biggio / Jason Lane
CF – Carlos Beltran / Jason Lane (please, Beltran….6/80?)
RF – Lance Berkman (4/42….5/50?)

MI – Brooks Conrad
OF – Jason Lane (3/6?)
OF – Ben Grieve
C – Brad Ausmus
CI – Mike Coolbaugh

SP – Roy Oswalt (4/40)
SP – Andy Pettitte
SP – Wade Miller (1/5)
SP – Brandon Backe

RP – Brad Lidge
RP – Chad Qualls
RP – Dan Wheeler
RP – Mike Burns
RP – Steve Reed
RP – Any 2 of Pete Munro / Tim Redding / Brandon Duckworth / Ezequiel Astacio / D.J. Houlton

Wow. Wowee-freakin'-Wow.

So since my last post, the Astros:

a) completed a six-game home winning streak to win the wild card, extending their home winning streak to 18 games.
b) Took Game 1 from the Braves, lost a tough Game 2, dominated Game 3, lost an EXCRUCIATING Game 4, and....
c) Just won Game 5, 12-3, thanks to Carlos Beltran, to advance to the NLCS to play the Cardinals.

It's been an amazing ride, and words can't really do it justice. It just seems like this team doesn't want to lose yet. The offense is peaking at the right time again, Oswalt and Clemens are warriors, Brandon Backe has come up big, and we just keep on winning. Can we keep it going against the 'best' (re: most wins (105), largest run differential, etc.) team in baseball.

Well, anything can happen in a 7-game series, so of course we CAN, but will we?

It's definitely possible.

The Astros lead the Cards in the season series, 10-8. I'll have a more complete preview soon (really!), but what I'd like to talk about now is our ideal rotation.

Option A

Munro
Backe
Clemens (full rest)
Oswalt (full rest)
Backe
Clemens
Oswalt

Option B

Backe (3 days rest)
Clemens (3 days rest)
Oswalt
Munro
Backe
Clemens
Oswalt

In my opinion, much as I dislike having Pete Munro as our Game 1 starter, I think we have to go with Option A. Clemens complained about his legs feeling 'dead' after 4 innings in his last start on short rest. Oswalt didn't look too sharp in Game 5 on short rest, though he battled through. I really think we need both those guys on full rest in Games 3,4,6, and 7, and just throw Munro and Backe out there in Games 1,2, and 5. One idea that has been suggested is to just devote 1 game to a 'bullpen' game. Throw the kitchen sink out there - Hernandez, Redding, Harville, Qualls, Gallo...anyone and everyone. It's not a terrible idea.

Anyway, I don't think throwing Clemens and Oswalt out there on short rest again is a good idea. They need the rest. Time for our offense to keep stepping up.

Back by popular demand...

As I'm writing this the Cubs are down 7-3 to the Reds in the 7th and the Astros lead the Cards 2-1. If both scores hold up we'll be withing A HALF-GAME!! How the heck have we done it?

Well, we've been a little lucky. We've been absolutely dominant in close games for the past month or so. It seems like when we lose we get smacked around, but we're pulling out tons of 1-0 and 4-3 victories, and that's what we need.

Our starting pitching has been The Big Two, Brandon Backe, and Munro 'n Hernandez. But we've found ways to win, and whatever we're doing, I'm liking it. Best of all, if we can pull out a victory for the Rocket tomorrow, we finish our season against the Rockies at home while the Cubs play the Braves and the Giants play the Dodgers. Lovely. I'm actually starting to believe this could be done. And if it does happen, against all odds, a front two of Oswalt and Clemens, with Qualls (who has been tough latey) and Miceli (a little nervous there) getting it to Lidge, who has quietly set the record for most strikeouts by a reliever IN HISTORY, we might have a fighting chance.

Anyway, count me back on the bandwagon. Go 'Stros!

One thing I would like them to at least consider would me playing Chris Burke more at SS or (I like this one) moving Ensberg to SS and playing Lamb at 3rd. Vizcaino, after a hot stretch, has been pretty damn bad lately.

Other than that, though, life is good. More to come soon.

Ok, so it's been a little while. Say...a couple of months or so? Well, moving to Arizona, river rafting, learning how to teach, and starting grad school all combined to pretty much dominate my life for a while there.

Speaking of 'dominating', the Astros were getting dominated for most of my absence, only to turn it around and win 20 of their last 25. Who knew? Now we're up 7-1 in Game 1 of a huge series against St. Louis.

For a while there I had pretty much given up on the Astros. The good news? This allowed me to appreciate baseball 'in general', rather than obsessing over one team. And it reinforced my desire to work in the baseball industry. So that's what I'm going to do. Baseball internship this summer, low-level job after my Master's in Stats, and work my way up to GM. Yup: that's the plan.

I really love my new hometown of Flagstaff, Arizona. It's got a (slightly deserved) reputation of a 'liberal mountain hippie town', but it's aaaaaall right anyway. About 50,000 people (half of those are involved with Northern Arizona University in some way), lots of bars, cool restaurants, bike trails (I've driven in my car about five times in the past month...you can bike everywhere), disc golf courses...it's paradise.

But the real reason why I love this place is:

REPRESENTING NAU MATH!

The guys (and girl...just 1) that represent the new class of GTA's (Graduate Teaching Assistants) are insane. And, the best. No, seriously, they are hilarious, outgoing, athletic...here's an example. The GTA coordinator (this tough Nebraskan named Jeff Rushall who's had all the GTA's over to his house for dinner twice) mentions the math department always does a rim-to-rim Grand Canyon hike in October or November. So now I'm hiking every weekend with two other guys (Frank from NY, Mike from Nashville! the college connection!) just to prepare for the big hike.

Or there's a department picnic, and afterwards all the new GTA's play a round of disc golf (after I begged them to..haha). And of course I win (shot 4-over, not that good but good enough) but some guys are naturals and are talking about playing again soon.

Or there's knotball, a great game we invented that involves a rope tied to a tennis ball that you then have to swing from a knot about halfway up the rope and throw the ball into a trash can. Not the best description, but it's AWESOME. I'm currently 4th out of 9....I'll move up yet.

It's just an amazing group. Think "Scrubs" but with teaching math instead of...saving lives. Not quite as dramatic, maybe, but just about as funny.

Check back more often, if there's even anyone still reading.

And go 'Stros!

Jack, you ignorant slut. Time to start posting again. We're a half-game back of the Cubs for the Wild Card!

We won our ELEVENTH straight game Tuesday night, as Oswalt (who just became a father earlier in the day) pitched into the eighth inning to pick up his ninth win in his last eleven starts. Carlos Beltran and Mike Lamb once again led the offensive attack. Mike Lamb!?!? Where did this guy come from? (That's right, the New York Yankees) He's 8-for-13 with 10 RBI in his last three games! Morgan who?

Clemens goes against Jose Acevedo to wrap up our season series against Cincy. Such a shame, too... I was getting used to walloping those guys. Rocket hasn't thrown well his past three outings or so, but he's managed to keep winning thanks to the Astros' new found bats. Let's make it an even dozen in a row. Then it's off to Pittsburgh, where we'll play five games in four days. We gotta take advantage there and at least win the series. With our slated starters (Hernandez, Munro, Redding, Backe) it doesn't look good. But who knows? I'm glad to see Timmy back. And the way Backe has been pitching lately, we really could take this thing.
______________________________
A note about Oswalt: He is in the Cy Young race. Like his team, he has to leapfrog a few guys. But he's definitely in the mix. Consider the other contenders:

Schmidt: It's his award to lose, although he's been trying his best to do just that. He's allowed six earned runs in each of his last three starts, including a thumping in Denver last night. His numbers have taken a hit (3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 215 Ks). Post-All Star ERA: 4.43

Unit: He's good (2.80, 0.89, with 249). His team's not (He's 12-13).

Sheets: Call him Unit, Jr. Check out his numbers (2.93, 1.00, 217). Too bad he also has a losing record (10-11).

Pavano: Who? Exactly. No one knows about this guy, but his numbers speak for themselves (3.09, 1.18 and 16 wins). He strikes out nobody, but if the Marlins pass us for the Wild Card, give this guy all the credit. Beckett and Burnett have better stuff and Dontrelle is more popular, but Pavano has been the ace for the Marlins and the reason why they're hanging around this year.

Rocket: Oh yeah, this guy. Great story, only really really good numbers (3.27, 1.21, 177 Ks). Like Schmidt, he's really fallen off in the second half (4.48 ERA).

Oswalt, meanwhile, has won 9 of his last 11 starts, and has 17 on the year (thanks to that win in relief). His ERA (3.59) stands a half point higher than his career average, and none of his stats can match Schmidt or Johnson or Sheets. More importantly, he's been on a tear down the stretch. Without him, we'd be below the Brewers. If he keeps this up (and maybe if he's the NL's only 20-game winner), he stands a chance.
______________________________
Random thought: last year, with our season on the line, we sent Jeriome Robertson to the hill, who got precisely one out. We got trounced by the Brewers. This year, if our rotation stays as is, Our last three pitchers will be Hernandez, Munro and Backe. This is not good.
______________________________
Another random thought: Napoleon Dynamite is the best movie ever. I'm being serious.

Jack, you ignorant slut. Time to start posting again. Don't you realize that the Astros are now... let's see... ONE-HALF GAME OUT OF THE WILD-CARD? Crazy. Just crazy. Eleven in a row for the second best win streak in franchise history. Tied with San Fran at a half-game behind Chicago.

Oswalt pitched well enough for the win and the offensive attack was once again led by Beltran and MIKE LAMB! Where did this guy come from? Oh yeah, New York. He's hitting homers daily and has gone 8-for-13 with 2 homers and TEN RBI in 3 games!

Clemens goes tomorrow against Jose Acevedo to complete our season series with Cincinnatti. Too bad, we absolutely OWN the Reds. Oh well, we got five games in four days against the Pirates next. Keep it rolling...

Meanwhile, Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding just got called up to join Chris Burke and Willy Taveras as our September call-ups. Taveras has been used just as he should be: as a pinch runner. Burke has been a pinch-hitter without a hit to his name. But he's getting some time at second base, spelling Kent. Timmy will pitch in Thursday's doubleheader at Pittsburgh. Here's hoping Timmy does well. I understand that unless another Astro gets hurt, Timmy will be ineligible for the postseason roster. Just as well. He hasn't pitched well all season, including AAA ball.

A note about Clemens and Oswalt: these guys are definitely in the Cy Young race. Think about the other contenders. Johnson and Sheets must be twins. You can't tell their numbers apart: one has a 2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 213 Ks; the other has 2.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 249 Ks. They are also a combined 22-24. Yikes. (P.S. They also both absolutely own the Braves.) Pavano strikes no one out, but has 16 wins! His lack of Ks and the fact that nobody know who the hell he is will keep him out of contention. Schmidt, meanwhile, is falling apart. He's allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Clemens, likewise, hasn't had a consistent second half. His ERA is now over 3.00 for the first time all season (By the way, that is still INCREDIBLE).

That leaves Oswalt. His numbers are not great. Nowhere near Randy's or Sheets' or Schmidt's or even Pavano's. His 3.59 ERA is a half-point higher than his career average. But he's got wins. Seventeen of them, to be exact. Most importantly, he's been a steam roller down the stretch. He's won eight of his last 10 starts, and picked up a win in relief. Haha.

It's still Schmidt's award to lose. But if the trends continue (Schmidt bad, Oswalt very good), he might stand a chance. Oh yeah, and he's a daddy now. Congrats Roy!

Players signed through 2005: Pettitte, Ausmus, Bagwell. Players eligible for arbitration: Lidge, Everett, Ensberg, Lane, Bruntlett, Backe, Gallo, Harville, Hernandez, Qualls. Players for whom we hold an option : Kent, Biggio. I'm not sure what the situation with Clemens is, but I'm assuming his 10-year personal services contract negates his ability to sign with some other team. Whether or not he'll sign with us (I've heard that he's seriously leaning that way) is yet to be determined. He sure likes to wait it out though.

The big question is, which All-Star do they sign between Berkman, Beltran and Oswalt. I think Oswalt should be our first priority. Sure, his groin gave out last year, but this year he's avoided the injury bug and can now be relied upon as a quality ace. A nice, juicy 3-year, $30 million contract would fit nicely.

So: Berkman or Beltran? Their career stats:

Berkman .301 .416 .561 .977
Beltran .285 .353 .492 .845 (182/209 SB)

Berkman is 28; Beltran 27. Both are switch-hitters. Beltran plays tra-mendous defense in center; Berkman looks foolish in left or right. Still, Berkman gets on base at a higher clip, and absolutely smacks the HELL out of the ball. And while his career OPS is more than 100 points lower than Berkman's, Beltran is the talk of the town. Everyone's talking about him getting $12 million per year. No one seems to be talking about Berkman.

I say we retain Oswalt and Berkman. I bet we can get both for around $10 million per year. We all know they'd be worth that price. Despite what Beltran has done for us this year, I just don't see how we can afford him. We could move Biggio back to center (shudder), or call up Willy Taveras next year. Burke and Lane would get a chance to play full time, as we bid farewell to Kent. Next year's projected lineup and rotation:

Biggio CF $3 million
Everett SS cheap
Bagwell 1B $17 million
Berkman LF $10 million
Lane RF cheap
Ensberg 3B cheap
Burke 2B cheap
Ausmus C $3 million

Oswalt $10 million
Pettitte $7.5 million
Hernandez cheap
Redding / Backe / Duckworth / Munro / Buchholz / Qualls cheap

Jack keeps telling me we're screwed for year to come. I don't think this looks so bad.

We are now 2.5 games back of the Cubs and the Giants for the wild card, thanks to a 3-game sweep of the Reds. This afternoon, Kent and Berkman led the offensive onslaught that has somehow ben missing all year. Kent hit a grand slam and Berkman went 3-3 with a solo homer. Both have hit six homers in the last eight games. In the series, the Stros hit 10 homers and outscored Cincinnatti 28-6. We've won 14 out of 17 since August 15.

But let's not get too excited. Like Larry Dierker reminds us in his article for the Houston Chronicle (http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/bb/2771727), we still have a ways to go — and four teams to leapfrog. Still, we have a relatively easy schedule for the remainder of the season. Our next 10 games come against Pittsburgh and Cincinnatti, and we only have three series against playoff contenders (St. Louis 2, San Fran). The Cubs also have an easy schedule; their only difficult series come against Florida (twice) and Atlanta. The Giants, Padres and Dodgers each share two series against one another, so they will hopefully beat up on each other. Florida might have the toughest road — they face Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia twice each.

Well the point is, we gotta win. The past three seasons, it seems like we've had major problems 1) beating the teams we're supposed to beat and 2) ending the season with a bang. But it's been a long time since we've been the underdog. I suppose it might be easier — or at least more exciting — to be playing catch-up instead of looking back over your shoulder all the time.

More importantly, though, I'm 21 now. And it's great.

Guess it's been a while, but both Jack and I have been pretty busy the past, oh, month or so. We've been on the Colorado River most of that time, away from the Rim World and the deplorable Astros. Really, though, there's not much to talk about. Miller and Pettitte are done for the season, and Everett's out for another month or so. After hovering under or around .500 for a large portion of the second half (losing 4 of 6 games to the Expos!), the Stros finally put togheter a good streak, winning 4 straight and 6 of 8. As soon as I start believing that maybe, somehow, 5-and-a-half games isn't too hard to climb, they go and fall again, losing 2 of 3 from the Cubs, just one of the 5 teams they'll have to leapfrog in order to take the wildcard. At this point, We'll have to win at least 30 of our last 40 games, and that's only to get to 90 wins. It won't happen. Maybe if I stop believeing, they'll start winning again.

UGH.

Adam Everett just hit his fourth homer of the season, a two-run shot with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. That would have won the game for us: we were down by one run after seven innings. Unfortunately, we lost the game 7-4, thanks to Paul Lo Duca's grand slam off Dave Weathers in the bottom of the eighth. This time the Stros smacked a grand total of seven hits against the outstanding Mr. Jose LIma. Not like we know his stuff or anything. Beltran had the only other significant hit, a two-run homer in the sixth. He also made two outfield assists. Does anyone else on the team even want to win?

.500 at the All-Star Break. Wow.

How long til the Texans take the field?

Three hits. One run. Against Wilson Alvarez. Another decent Clemens start wasted. Another close game lost.

Nevertheless, I feel a run coming on. Along with most every Astro fan on the planet, I am begging for the firing of Jimy as soon as the retractable roof closes on the 2004 All Star Game. But then comes the good part: the run.

Here's how it's gonna happen: we hire a decent manager. Anyone. Bob Brenly. Bobby Valentine. Jerry Manuel. I don't care. Anyone. The important thing is, we gotta shift things up around the dugout. Send everyone in the organization a wake-up call, that we gotta start lollygagging and get our act together.

Shake up the lineup while we're at it. Bat Beltran second, for God's sake. Then Berkman, Kent, Bagwell, Ensberg, Everett, Ausmus. I hope our new manager hates sac bunts as much as Jimy loves them. I hope he never uses Vizcaino or Palmeiro ever again and gives every possible pinch hit opportunity to Lane.

Our schedule right out of the gate from the break is relatively easy. Eighteen of our first 23 games after the break are at home, including series against the terrible Expos, the surprising Brewers, the injury-plagued Diamondbacks and the reeling Braves. Our five away games are at Cincinnatti, where we always seem to hit well (especially Lance) and at lowly Arizona. Immediately after that, we have away series at New York and Montreal, two very beatable teams. That's a stretch of 29 games in which we could easily go 23-6 or thereabouts.

Of course, the way we're playing right now, we could easily go 6-23. But we gotta stay positive.

By the way, Ensberg played shortstop for a couple of innings today, with Lamb at third.

I didn't even see the Yankees - Red Sox game last night, but from everything I've read this morning it sounds like one of the most dramatic baseball games ever played. Check it out.

Carlos Beltran continues to try to carry the Astros but comes up a little short, as Houston loses 5-4 off a Sosa walk-off HR. Any reason why Lidge was pitching after throwing about 40 pitches the game before?

There was a funny quote on TV the other day during the Astros - Cubs day game 2 days ago:

"All of the Astros told me they couldn't believe how good Carlos Beltran is."

This just brings up a ton of funny images for me:

Craig Biggio's mouth dropping open when he sees how much ground Beltran can cover.

Jeff Bagwell rubbing his eyes when he sees Beltran throw from CF.

Pretty much the entire team dumbstruck as Beltran crushes 4 HR's in a 3-game series with the Cubs, only to have the rest of the offense (except Biggio) do very little.

Seriously, it seems like we have to do so much to get a win these days, like Roy Oswalt pitching a shutout, or Craig Biggio hitting 2 HR's. Events like that aren't going to happen every day. We need some 'normal' wins.

Morgan Ensberg, where hast thou power gone? You're slugging .355, or thereabouts. The announcers also mentioned that the Astros are 'happy' with the way Ensberg is hitting this year. WHAT??!!?? The strange this is, I can picture Jimy relentlessly encouraging Ensberg to go the other way, to steal bases, to drop down a bunt, because THAT'S WHAT REAL BALLPLAYERS DO. I, of course, just want to him to crush home runs and draw walks, which is what GOOD offensive players do.

I'm in Flagstaff all week, doing...stuff. Probably trying to meet the NAU tennis coach, getting my AZ drivers license...maybe buying some new clothes, too. Give me a call (on Andy's cell phone).

Oh:

Jack Wade
1607 N. Sunset Dr.
Flagstaff, AZ 86001

Hey! It's been a while, but I got a house, and furniture, and the Astros got Carlos Beltran!

So it's been a good week. Andy and I got in to the warehouse on Tuesday night I think and there was (of course) a party going on, so we just wandered up and jumped in. No one knew exactly when we were working but they were more than happy to give us food and beer, so it was ok.

We slept in the back of the big trailer that night, and hightailed it to Flagstaff before they could make us do clean-up work around the warehouse.

We got in, called up some friends, and got to house-hunting. We went to a few apartments which were ok but kinda small, and then just happened to be driving by Hospital Hill (a quiet neighborhood about 10 mins. north of NAU and 5 mins. north of Historic Downtown Flagstaff) when we spotted a For Rent sign and a guy (Will Loomis) in the yard. He was a really friendly guy, showed us all around the house (which is awesome...I don't want to describe it too much because you're all gonna come visit), and we really liked it. So we dropped off the application that night, signed it in the morning, and moved in that night! Then we realized we needed a few things. Bed. Futon. Table. Food. Beer.

So we've pretty much been filling in the blanks the past few days. It's been exhausting, lots of driving and shopping and garage sales....but yesterday was the big day, as we bought a great coffee table for 20, a futon (with frame) for 25, and a 3 piece living room set and recliner for 505.

Now we're basically completely moved in, and we found out our schedule for July:

Andy has trips on the 1st and 13th.
Jack has trips on the 8th and 25th.

There are a few more swampers this year, so trips are a little harder to come by. This also means that I'll probably only be doing those two trips all summer, since the folks drive up on the 5th and then JT/Jason fly in sometime in early August, and then Orientation starts on the 23rd. Hopefully I can give Andy all the trips that I would have gotten in August.

So that's my life. As for the Astros: YEAH, BELTRAN.

We're in win-now mode, like it or not. Dotel's great, and I'm sorry to see him go, and Buck might be the catcher of the future, but Beltran is one of the top 20 or so players in the game and brings great defense, speed, and youth to a team that does not have any of those.

Of course we've lost 2 straight games to the Rangers since acquiring Beltran, but Pettitte's coming back and Jimy moved Everett down in the lineup today (with Bagwell hitting 2nd!)

I like our chances, long term, although the bullpen scares me. Lidge should be solid, but he tired last year and has thrown a lot of innings this year, and Dan Miceli and David Weathers are ok but not that great. Gallo, Bullinger, Munro....yikes.

But we got Beltran, and for now, that's all that matters.

Keep in touch, everyone, although my cell phone gets crappy service out here. I'll probably switch to Spring or Verizon pretty soon.

Panic button: ENGAGE.

Astros get:

David Weathers
Jeremy Griffiths

Mets get:

Richard Hidalgo
4 million

Ignoring the fact that we get to plug in Jason Lane, which of the above would you rather have?

Hidalgo's incredibly streaky, but he's a superb defensive player and put up a 950 OPS last year. He may not be worth 12 million, but he's not bad, and we dumped him at his lowest value possible, instead of this offseason or after his HUGE April. David Weathers is a slightly above average reliever and Griffiths is a non-prospect.

Mets win this one.


What I really don't like about this trade is how truly bad it makes our outfield defense. Biggio has been god-awful in center, with numerous acrobatic collapses on Tal's Hill, Lane has a below-average arm, and Lance can't run (although he always seems to make the play).

In other news, Oswalt is probably injured, Pettitte isn't completely ready, Clemens is starting to show his age, and we traded for Pete Munro. And Jose Vizcaino is our starting SS as Everett has a minor injury. Oh, and we basically released Ricky Stone, while retaining Kirk Bullinger, Eric Bruntlett....damn.

Sometimes I love this team so much that I hate them.

Two more days and I'm off.

Ready for this one?

"Astros SS Adam Everett recorded his 19th sacrifice bunt in the first inning, the most in a single season in the majors since Neifi Perez had 22 for Colorado in 1997."

It's not even the All-Star Break and Adam Everett already has more sacrifice bunts than ANYONE in the majors in 6 years.

Man, I miss Morgan Ensberg hitting 2nd.

It's a quiet Saturday; JT is driving to Baton Rouge to cheer on his beloved Aggies in the College World Series, Mark's driving (!!) to the Pacific Coast of Mexico for some fun in the sun, Jason is recovering from a long week of hard labor, and that leaves yours truly thinking about where I'll be a few months from now.

My brother's back from college tomorrow, and we're going to try and score some Astros tix for the upcoming Cubs series. Game 1: Clemens vs. Prior!! We must do it.

He's back for all of a week, and then we're off for some rafting.

CD of the weekend: "OK Computer", Radiohead. If you don't like it at first, listen again. It grows on you.

Time for my 2004 NL All-Star ballot:

1B - Albert Pujols. Sorry, Sean Casey, but YOU'RE NOT THAT GOOD. Pujols is drawing more walks this year and he's insanely, painfully good (I once dropped him in a fantasy league!)

2B - Jeff Kent. You were thinking Tony Womack? Kent's got a 24-game hitting streak as of Friday, and a cool 905 OPS. Not bad for a 36-year old second baseman.

SS - Jack Wilson. THERE IS NO ONE ELSE. You think I wanted to vote for Jack Freakin' Wilson???? But my god...Renteria and Orlando Cabrera are sucking, Adam Everett is terrible offensively....I have to do it.

3B - Scott Rolen. He's got 63 RBI's. I don't care if you do have Pujols and Edmonds in front of you, that's a lot. Sorry, Mike Lowell - you're good too.

C - Mike Piazza. He got off to a slow start, but the best catcher of all time now has 13 HR's, 30 RBI, is hitting .305, and...is the best catcher of all time. Tough luck, Johnny Estrada.

OF - Bobby Abreu, Lance Berkman, Barry Bonds. I hate to keep Adam Dunn off the team, but Abreu has been damn good, Berkman's got an 1100 OPS and has carried the Astros (along with Kent) for a month and Barry Bonds is still alive.

SP - Roger Clemens. He just barely beats out Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets. Clemens is 9-0, tons of K's...and he's 41. And he was supposed to RETIRE!!

Closer - Armando Benitez. Sorry, Gagne, but you BLEW IT in last year's All Star Game, so take a seat, and let Mr. 40-straight-batters-retired-in-a-row take over (and a 0.54 ERA, too). Oh, and Brad Lidge can set-up...he's got 55 K's!!!

Well, that's my team. Bring it, JT.

Well, the Astros scored 4 runs in a 3-game series - AND WON 2 OF THEM!! That's pretty good, but not as good as back-to-back shutouts off starts by Clemens and Miller. Our pitching is looking solid, especially our 'best 6' or so that teams would see if we make it to the playoffs: Oswalt, Pettitte (or Miller), Clemens, Miceli, Lidge, Dotel. That's tough.

Jason Lane finally got a start last night and did nothing with it, unfortunately. He just needs to play more, but I wish he'd get some hits so Jimy would have to notice.

We had a great small party last night, with beer pong and Michelle's crazy dance music leading the way. Then it got a little too wild as Michelle wandered off and we looked for her and...well...things just got a little weird from then on. But it's all good, and I can't wait to do it again, especially since Mark is quite good at beer pong - at least, someone to challenge me! Mark - ARE YOU ASKING FOR A CHALLENGE?????

Jack's 2004 AL All Star Team

C - Jorge Posada, Yankees. Victor Martinez (and Pudge Rodriguez, actually)are close, but Posada doubles Martinez in walks (36 to 18) despite playing in 3 fewer games and has a 78-point OPS advantage over the 2003 World Series Hero.

1B - Ken Harvey, Royals. What happened to all the AL first basemen? I thought about taking Jason Giambi, but he just came off the DL and might be hurt. No one else has really stood out, and I thought about going with Rafael Palmeiro since he's almost done and is having a solid year, but Harvey has been quite good (.375 / .412 / .543) So I'm going with the Big Fella. Although he did just put his own pitcher on the DL yesterday by running into him.

2B - Juan Uribe, White Sox. Ugh!!! But I have to; he's the best right now. Believe me, I want to pick Alfonso Soriano, but 1) he's not as good as everyone thinks he is and 2) he's not as good as even someone like ME thinks he is. Soriano is at .284 / .326 / .431 with 19 extra-base hits; Uribe is at .309 / .368 / .508 with 21 XBH!! Send him in.

SS - Carlos Guillen, Tigers. I wonder if Seattle regrets trading Guillen (who's got a 961 OPS and 28 XBH) so they could sign Rich Aurilia (633 OPS, 12 XBH). Oops. Sorry Tejada - you gotta swing HARRRRRDAAAAA.

3B - Alex Rodriguez. I'm not looking Melvin Mora in the eye when I make this pick, but ARod is unstoppable, and is finally dominating after a slow start. If an All-Star Game in the next 10 years does not include ARod, I will be ill.

OF - Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero. Ok, no more crazy picks like Harvey, Uribe, and Guillen. I mean....come on. Look at that outfield, and tremble in fear.

DH - Frank Thomas. He'll always be underappreciated. Arguably the best non-Bonds hitter of the last 20 years. 51 walks so far this year, and a 1053 OPS.

SPs - Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, C.C. Sabathia, Freddy Garcia. Schilling deserves to start, Hudson and Mulder are the only ones with sub-3.00 ERAs, and Sabathia and Garcia are close.

RPs - Mariano Rivera, Keith Foulke, Franciso Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez. Saves leader, Foulke Foulke!, Cordero's been tough, and K-Rod is going NUTS.

So that's my team. Check out JT's at his blog.

Coming soon: NL!

I finally gave my boss my two weeks' notice on Friday, so I'm officially heading off to The Big Ditch with Andy on June 21. We'll be rafting the Colorado River for a couple of months, and then I start school Aug. 16, but I think he's planning on rafting a few more trips (he doesn't start his senior year at NU until late September). So it's kind of the end of an era here in The Woodlands, and I'd like to say I want to do all the things I never did...but I've done a lot, and I'm still doing my favorite things, like tennis, Mario Tennis, bridge, frisbee golf, and watching Jason eat cheese fries. So here's to a good last few weeks.

I admit that I've been following the Astros a little less (though I still watch every game I can and keep updated on everything possible) and baseball in general a little more. Guess I'm just a fan of the game as a whole. Actually JT and I have had a little argument going about who should be voted to the All Star Game - 'proven' superstars that everyone wants to see regardless of their statistics (a.k.a. Nomar Garciaparra is leading the AL for shortstops, despite not playing a game yet), or guys that kind of came out of nowhere to dominate so far this year (Sean Casey, Victor Martinez, Joe Kennedy). Well, in my next post, I'm going to unveil my 2004 AL All Star Ballot, and I challenge JT to do the same, and we'll compare. Oh, and stop by his blog, too. It's good stuff.