Heard something on AstrosDaily about Rocket on the Dean & Rog radio show the other day. Apparently he's already started his workouts. He was eating dinner one night when his hamstring cramped up on him... he started screaming, and his boys thought he was choking on his food so they started performing the Heimlich manuever on him. Hahaha.
Which player do you think will exceed expectations this year? Your choices are:
Ausmus
Bagwell
Duckworth
Ensberg
Everett
Lane
Qualls
Monday, January 31, 2005
Andy wants minor league reports, so darn it, I'll give him one. This should be good timing because Baseball America just made a list of Top 10 Astros Prospects. I'll go over that list first, and talk about anyone that I think they missed.
FYI, the full version of the stats I'll be summarizing can be found here.
So, without further ado...
Baseball America's Top 10 Astros Prospects.
1. Chris Burke, 2B.
How does .315 / .396 / .507in a severe pitcher's park sound? That's a monster year by any stretch of the imagination. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and at age 25 (by the time the season starts) he needs to play. A converted shortstop; reputed to be excellent defensively. I'd compare him to a slightly lesser Marcus Giles, with probably more speed but less power.
2. Ezequiel Astacio, RHP
Certainly made the biggest jump of any prospect on this list. I assumed he was basically a throw-in of the Wagner trade (along with Duckworth and Bucholz, the main prospect), but a 3.89 ERA and 56 / 185 walk-to-strikeout ration in 176 innings (in a huge hitter's park) and a dominating Winter League make him the best pitching prospect we've got. I'd like to see him get a look in the bullpen or as a spot starter in spring training. I like the Earl Weaver approach with young pitching prospects - work them in slowly in the bullpen, from one-innings stints to multiple-inning stints, and eventually give them a shot in the rotation. This approach worked well with Roy Oswalt, also, although Astacio isn't quite the prospect Oswalt was.
3. Willy Taveras, CF.
The most overrated prospect in the organization. Yes, he hit .335. Yes, he stole 55 bases. But 16 XBH and 38 BB in 409 AB?? Yuck, yuck, yuck. I'd recommend trading him to a team that covets speed (White Sox? Devil Rays?) or using him as a pinch runner / defensive replacement.
4. Mitch Einerston, OF.
I couldn't find his whole stats, but I found he had 24 HR, 63 RBI, and a .692 slugging percentage in the Appalachian League. And he's 18 years old. By comparison, Manny Ramirez had 19 HR and 63 RBI when he was in the Appalachain League. Mitch was named the #1 App. League prospect by Baseball America. The Astros have tried him at 2B, but I don't really see the need - we're going to need OF's more than 2B in the future. Look for him at A or AA this year.
5. Troy Patton, LHP.
The only guy on the list I've never heard of, Troy comes out of Tomball High School. In 2004 he had a 0.91 ERA and a 24 / 142 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 77 IP. Them's a lotta K's. However, this is against high-school competition. Still, a guy to watch.
6. Matt Albers, RHP.
Had a nice season at Single-A at the age of 21:
3.31 ERA, 57 / 140 in 111.1 IP. Only 3 HR allowed. Not really a grade-A prospect, though.
7. Taylor Bucholz, RHP.
A disappointing 2004 at AAA dropped him down a lot. He was the main prospect we got in the Billy Wagner trade, but he struggled early in 2004, and finished with a 5.23 ERA and a respectable 29 / 74 ratio in 98 IP. His 16 HR allowed really hurt him - he's gotta learn to keep the ball down, especially at The Juice Box. He's only 23, so room to improve.
8. Fernando Nieve, RHP.
22 years old, and a 2.96 ERA in 149 IP? Pretty solid, huh? However, his K rate dropped a lot, as he only struck out 117 while walking 40. Still a good prospect, but you'd like more strikeouts at Single-A.
9. Josh Anderson, OF.
Fast as hell, but you can't steal 1st base. He's only 22, and during two stints at Single-A he combined for 78 SB and only 13 CS, but he also only had 40 XBH and 46 BB in 579 AB. He might be better than Willy Taveras in a year or two, but that's damning with faint praise.
10. Hunter Pence, OF.
Our 1st round pick last year, Pence hit .296 with 27 XBH and 23 BB in only 199 AB, good rate stats. He'll be 21 soon, and should continue to improve.
Some thoughts - no relievers or corner infielders on this list. Some guys that got left out, whether due to their age or they were simply overlooked:
Mike Burns, RHP.
The good? He was finally made a full-time reliever in '04 and responded with a 1.67 ERA and a 15 / 94 ratio in 81 IP. The bad? His career minor league numbers (3.63 ERA, 468 K in 565 innings) aren't that impressive, and he's 26. Last year might have been his peak. Worth a look at spring training, though, especially with our makeshift bullpen.
Todd Self, 1B.
Very similar to Mike Burns, he had a 'peak' year last year and he's also 26, old for a prospect. He hit .315 / .420 / .460, but at a big hitter's park. Not enough power to be a corner infielder in the big leagues. Good batting eye, but probably a minor-league lifer.
Luke Scott, OF. My favorite prospect-you've-never-heard-of. He's also 26 (sensing a trend? We need younger prospects.), but had a big year when promoted to AA last year: 1055 OPS, 36 XBH in 208 AB. A bit above anything he had done in the minors before though...he could probably put up a .250 / .330 / .470 line in the majors for cheap.
Jason Alfaro, UTIL.
Well, that came out of nowhere. At age 27, he hit .325 / .363 / .477 in a pitcher's park. He doesn't walk at all, but neither does Jose Vizcaino, and Alfaro actually has some power. Moral of the story: I hate having Viz on our major league team when we have Alfaro and Conrad in the minors.
Mike Coolbaugh, 3B.
I was excited when I saw that Coolbaugh tore up AAA, with a 950 OPS and 60 XBH in 404 AB. The downside? He's 32. Whoops. Non-prospect.
Brooks Conrad, 2B. The runner-up to Luke Scott in best prospect you've never heard of. Conrad's 25 and has shown good power for a 2B his whole career. His glove isn't too great, but 63 BB and 57 XBH for a 2B is. Too bad we have the Great Viz blocking him.
Hector Gimenez, C. He needs to learn how to hit. He's only 20, so he's got some time, and everyone says he has a cannon, but a 650 OPS in a hitter's park? YECH. Come back in a few years.
So, Burke needs to play, I like Astacio as a reliever / spot starter, and everyone else on the main list isn't ready yet. On my list I wish Alfaro or Conrad could get the chance to be better than Viz for the league minimum rather than paying Viz 1.2 million. We have quite a few decent OF prospects (Einerston, Taveras, Anderson, Pence, Scott), several decent pitching prospects (Astacio, Patton, Albers, Bucholz, Nieve), but our IF prospects are pretty crappy. Only the obvious Burke is good; the rest are too old (Self, Coolbaugh) or too young (Gimenez).
What does this mean? We absolutely shouldn't trade Ensberg, since we get him for a few more years for cheap, we should get used to Everett at SS or look to trade for one, I hope Burke works out, 'cause there's no one else, Berkman will probably slide over to 1st eventually, and we're going to need a catcher in '06 and probably '07 until Gimenez is decent. I read that the Rockies are interested in trading for Robby Hammock - the Astros should get interested, and fast. He'd be a nice temporary fit.
Whew, that's it for now. Tell me if I forgot anybody or whatever.
FYI, the full version of the stats I'll be summarizing can be found here.
So, without further ado...
Baseball America's Top 10 Astros Prospects.
1. Chris Burke, 2B.
How does .315 / .396 / .507in a severe pitcher's park sound? That's a monster year by any stretch of the imagination. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and at age 25 (by the time the season starts) he needs to play. A converted shortstop; reputed to be excellent defensively. I'd compare him to a slightly lesser Marcus Giles, with probably more speed but less power.
2. Ezequiel Astacio, RHP
Certainly made the biggest jump of any prospect on this list. I assumed he was basically a throw-in of the Wagner trade (along with Duckworth and Bucholz, the main prospect), but a 3.89 ERA and 56 / 185 walk-to-strikeout ration in 176 innings (in a huge hitter's park) and a dominating Winter League make him the best pitching prospect we've got. I'd like to see him get a look in the bullpen or as a spot starter in spring training. I like the Earl Weaver approach with young pitching prospects - work them in slowly in the bullpen, from one-innings stints to multiple-inning stints, and eventually give them a shot in the rotation. This approach worked well with Roy Oswalt, also, although Astacio isn't quite the prospect Oswalt was.
3. Willy Taveras, CF.
The most overrated prospect in the organization. Yes, he hit .335. Yes, he stole 55 bases. But 16 XBH and 38 BB in 409 AB?? Yuck, yuck, yuck. I'd recommend trading him to a team that covets speed (White Sox? Devil Rays?) or using him as a pinch runner / defensive replacement.
4. Mitch Einerston, OF.
I couldn't find his whole stats, but I found he had 24 HR, 63 RBI, and a .692 slugging percentage in the Appalachian League. And he's 18 years old. By comparison, Manny Ramirez had 19 HR and 63 RBI when he was in the Appalachain League. Mitch was named the #1 App. League prospect by Baseball America. The Astros have tried him at 2B, but I don't really see the need - we're going to need OF's more than 2B in the future. Look for him at A or AA this year.
5. Troy Patton, LHP.
The only guy on the list I've never heard of, Troy comes out of Tomball High School. In 2004 he had a 0.91 ERA and a 24 / 142 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 77 IP. Them's a lotta K's. However, this is against high-school competition. Still, a guy to watch.
6. Matt Albers, RHP.
Had a nice season at Single-A at the age of 21:
3.31 ERA, 57 / 140 in 111.1 IP. Only 3 HR allowed. Not really a grade-A prospect, though.
7. Taylor Bucholz, RHP.
A disappointing 2004 at AAA dropped him down a lot. He was the main prospect we got in the Billy Wagner trade, but he struggled early in 2004, and finished with a 5.23 ERA and a respectable 29 / 74 ratio in 98 IP. His 16 HR allowed really hurt him - he's gotta learn to keep the ball down, especially at The Juice Box. He's only 23, so room to improve.
8. Fernando Nieve, RHP.
22 years old, and a 2.96 ERA in 149 IP? Pretty solid, huh? However, his K rate dropped a lot, as he only struck out 117 while walking 40. Still a good prospect, but you'd like more strikeouts at Single-A.
9. Josh Anderson, OF.
Fast as hell, but you can't steal 1st base. He's only 22, and during two stints at Single-A he combined for 78 SB and only 13 CS, but he also only had 40 XBH and 46 BB in 579 AB. He might be better than Willy Taveras in a year or two, but that's damning with faint praise.
10. Hunter Pence, OF.
Our 1st round pick last year, Pence hit .296 with 27 XBH and 23 BB in only 199 AB, good rate stats. He'll be 21 soon, and should continue to improve.
Some thoughts - no relievers or corner infielders on this list. Some guys that got left out, whether due to their age or they were simply overlooked:
Mike Burns, RHP.
The good? He was finally made a full-time reliever in '04 and responded with a 1.67 ERA and a 15 / 94 ratio in 81 IP. The bad? His career minor league numbers (3.63 ERA, 468 K in 565 innings) aren't that impressive, and he's 26. Last year might have been his peak. Worth a look at spring training, though, especially with our makeshift bullpen.
Todd Self, 1B.
Very similar to Mike Burns, he had a 'peak' year last year and he's also 26, old for a prospect. He hit .315 / .420 / .460, but at a big hitter's park. Not enough power to be a corner infielder in the big leagues. Good batting eye, but probably a minor-league lifer.
Luke Scott, OF. My favorite prospect-you've-never-heard-of. He's also 26 (sensing a trend? We need younger prospects.), but had a big year when promoted to AA last year: 1055 OPS, 36 XBH in 208 AB. A bit above anything he had done in the minors before though...he could probably put up a .250 / .330 / .470 line in the majors for cheap.
Jason Alfaro, UTIL.
Well, that came out of nowhere. At age 27, he hit .325 / .363 / .477 in a pitcher's park. He doesn't walk at all, but neither does Jose Vizcaino, and Alfaro actually has some power. Moral of the story: I hate having Viz on our major league team when we have Alfaro and Conrad in the minors.
Mike Coolbaugh, 3B.
I was excited when I saw that Coolbaugh tore up AAA, with a 950 OPS and 60 XBH in 404 AB. The downside? He's 32. Whoops. Non-prospect.
Brooks Conrad, 2B. The runner-up to Luke Scott in best prospect you've never heard of. Conrad's 25 and has shown good power for a 2B his whole career. His glove isn't too great, but 63 BB and 57 XBH for a 2B is. Too bad we have the Great Viz blocking him.
Hector Gimenez, C. He needs to learn how to hit. He's only 20, so he's got some time, and everyone says he has a cannon, but a 650 OPS in a hitter's park? YECH. Come back in a few years.
So, Burke needs to play, I like Astacio as a reliever / spot starter, and everyone else on the main list isn't ready yet. On my list I wish Alfaro or Conrad could get the chance to be better than Viz for the league minimum rather than paying Viz 1.2 million. We have quite a few decent OF prospects (Einerston, Taveras, Anderson, Pence, Scott), several decent pitching prospects (Astacio, Patton, Albers, Bucholz, Nieve), but our IF prospects are pretty crappy. Only the obvious Burke is good; the rest are too old (Self, Coolbaugh) or too young (Gimenez).
What does this mean? We absolutely shouldn't trade Ensberg, since we get him for a few more years for cheap, we should get used to Everett at SS or look to trade for one, I hope Burke works out, 'cause there's no one else, Berkman will probably slide over to 1st eventually, and we're going to need a catcher in '06 and probably '07 until Gimenez is decent. I read that the Rockies are interested in trading for Robby Hammock - the Astros should get interested, and fast. He'd be a nice temporary fit.
Whew, that's it for now. Tell me if I forgot anybody or whatever.
Sunday, January 30, 2005
Sammy will be missed in Chicago. As far as his talent, I think he's is eerily similar to Jeff Bagwell. Both are well past their primes and are declining at a steady rate. But they can both still smack the hell out of the ball.
As far as their status with fans, I'd like to say that it's mostly the fault of Chicago fans. Cubs fans, as reknowned as they are for loving the losers and always selling out Wrigley despite all the losing seasons, are brutal. I remember the chants of "HEE-SOP-CHOI" whenever Derrek Lee was at the plate last year. Lee was struggling, and Choi HAD ALREADY BEEN TRADED to Florida. So mean to Derrek.
Sosa was booed more than anyone last year, and every strike out pissed off the fans more and more. By the time he finished the season with a .253 average, he was frustrated and pissed as well. That's why he left the stadium in the last game of the season. And why he bitched all season about this or that. The cork... well, no one can really explain that.
The difference between Bags and Sosa is that Bags would never walk out on the team like that. He wouldn't bitch about being dropped in the order either.
Of course, Astros fans would never boo Bagwell because they actually have respect for ballplayers that have meant so much to our team. It's a vicious cycle, and I'm happy for Sammy that he was able to pull himself out of it. He knows, as does everyone, that Sammy doesn't have what he used to have. And fans up here would never have forgiven him for it.
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As far as their status with fans, I'd like to say that it's mostly the fault of Chicago fans. Cubs fans, as reknowned as they are for loving the losers and always selling out Wrigley despite all the losing seasons, are brutal. I remember the chants of "HEE-SOP-CHOI" whenever Derrek Lee was at the plate last year. Lee was struggling, and Choi HAD ALREADY BEEN TRADED to Florida. So mean to Derrek.
Sosa was booed more than anyone last year, and every strike out pissed off the fans more and more. By the time he finished the season with a .253 average, he was frustrated and pissed as well. That's why he left the stadium in the last game of the season. And why he bitched all season about this or that. The cork... well, no one can really explain that.
The difference between Bags and Sosa is that Bags would never walk out on the team like that. He wouldn't bitch about being dropped in the order either.
Of course, Astros fans would never boo Bagwell because they actually have respect for ballplayers that have meant so much to our team. It's a vicious cycle, and I'm happy for Sammy that he was able to pull himself out of it. He knows, as does everyone, that Sammy doesn't have what he used to have. And fans up here would never have forgiven him for it.
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Not much baseball news to report, so I'll try a state-of-the-union address.
Snow hit Flagstaff a few days ago, and we've got a steady 2-5 inches a day since. I like walking in it, but NOT driving in it. The old Eagle Vision (which REALLY needs new shocks) is a little scary to drive through snow...but I'm managing so far.
I watched the replay of the Safin-Federer math last night, and the replay of the Safin-Hewitt match this morning. Safin is the only guy in the world that can challenge and beat Federer even when Fed is playing well, so it's great to see him win one. He seemed really focused the whole tourney; he could have given up several times against Fed, and he lost the first set 6-1 to Hewitt and had the whole country rooting against him, but he absolutely brought the thunder in sets 2,3, and 4, and he's back. It's a great top 4 right now, with Federer at 1, Safin at 1a, and Hewitt and Roddick both just a step behind. Should be a great year for men's tennis.
Funny story: If you're reading this, you probably know I've been without a phone for the past 10 days or 2 weeks or whatever. But I plan to go get one Friday afternoon; right as I'm leaving, I decide to use a buddy's phone to check my messages. And there's on from a girl asking if the room at my house is still available!! So I call back, tell her to meet me there in a half hour, and practically run home...only to wait for another hour, as she's late. When she finally arrives, 4 girls get out of the car, so I'm a little confused, and they are equally confused when I explain there is only one room avaiable, NOT the whole house. Argh. Dumb girls. So no phone and no roommate. But I got one (a phone, that is) Saturday morning, so all better. Give me a call at 928 241 1127, since I don't remember any of your numbers.
I need a good book these days. I'm classic-ed out, I need a break from Dostoyevsky or Joyce or whatever else ya got, how about an easy, non-baseball, non-poker, non-statistics read? I'd owe you one.
Snow hit Flagstaff a few days ago, and we've got a steady 2-5 inches a day since. I like walking in it, but NOT driving in it. The old Eagle Vision (which REALLY needs new shocks) is a little scary to drive through snow...but I'm managing so far.
I watched the replay of the Safin-Federer math last night, and the replay of the Safin-Hewitt match this morning. Safin is the only guy in the world that can challenge and beat Federer even when Fed is playing well, so it's great to see him win one. He seemed really focused the whole tourney; he could have given up several times against Fed, and he lost the first set 6-1 to Hewitt and had the whole country rooting against him, but he absolutely brought the thunder in sets 2,3, and 4, and he's back. It's a great top 4 right now, with Federer at 1, Safin at 1a, and Hewitt and Roddick both just a step behind. Should be a great year for men's tennis.
Funny story: If you're reading this, you probably know I've been without a phone for the past 10 days or 2 weeks or whatever. But I plan to go get one Friday afternoon; right as I'm leaving, I decide to use a buddy's phone to check my messages. And there's on from a girl asking if the room at my house is still available!! So I call back, tell her to meet me there in a half hour, and practically run home...only to wait for another hour, as she's late. When she finally arrives, 4 girls get out of the car, so I'm a little confused, and they are equally confused when I explain there is only one room avaiable, NOT the whole house. Argh. Dumb girls. So no phone and no roommate. But I got one (a phone, that is) Saturday morning, so all better. Give me a call at 928 241 1127, since I don't remember any of your numbers.
I need a good book these days. I'm classic-ed out, I need a break from Dostoyevsky or Joyce or whatever else ya got, how about an easy, non-baseball, non-poker, non-statistics read? I'd owe you one.
Saturday, January 29, 2005
And just like that, he was gone.
Say what you will about Sammy Sosa. He was caught using a corked bat (despite physics studies that say cork doesn't help, by the way.) He was selfish, left games early, and whined about being moved to 6th in the batting order. He had a terrible 2nd half of '04. All that is true. But he was Mr. Cub, and it's going to be a little strange to see the Cub lineup without Sammy.
Ok, sentimentality aside, how does it affect the Astros?
Well, it's hard to analyze the deal (Jerry Hairston Jr. and from 2-4 minor leaguers for Sosa, and the Cubs pay around 10 of Sosa' 17 million dollar salary) by itself, because I think the Cubs aren't done dealing. Rumors say they'll trade some of those prospects to Tampa for Aubrey Huff, or to Washington for Brad Wilkerson or maybe even go after Magglio Ordonez (thought Boras wants SEVEN YEARS...screw you, Boras). If the Cubs follow up by doing that, I think they'll be a better team. If they platoon Hairston at 2nd with Walker or play Hairston in LF and sign Jeromy Burnitz, I think this a bad, bad move by them. Maybe Andy can answer this better than I can, but had Sosa really fallen so far so fast? Did he have to be traded? From the Orioles perspective, I think it was a necessary kind of move since they missed out on Beltran and Delgado and everyone else. Giving up a guy they can easily replace (Brian Roberts can play 2nd) and some decent prospects in return for an aging but still effective slugger is probably a good deal, and Sosa should sell tickets, if nothing else. It's also the first time two 500 HR guys (Sosa and Raffy) are on the same team. Check out this middle of the lineup for the 0's:
Melvin Mora
Miguel Tejada
Sammy Sosa
Javy Lopez
Raffy Palmeiro
Go back and see how Mora did last year, and you see that this lineup might score a helluva lot of runs. Too bad their pitching is craptacular.
Anyway, more Astros thoughts - if the Cubs make a trade for Huff and include Jason DuBois in the trade, the Rays would probably love to move Jose Cruz Jr., who I'm sure would love to come play for the 'Stros. So if that happens I'd be pretty happy, as Cruz Jr. would make a better all-around CF than anyone we've got.
I'm still stunned Sosa's not a Cub. It might take me a few days. He was a worthy adversary.
Say what you will about Sammy Sosa. He was caught using a corked bat (despite physics studies that say cork doesn't help, by the way.) He was selfish, left games early, and whined about being moved to 6th in the batting order. He had a terrible 2nd half of '04. All that is true. But he was Mr. Cub, and it's going to be a little strange to see the Cub lineup without Sammy.
Ok, sentimentality aside, how does it affect the Astros?
Well, it's hard to analyze the deal (Jerry Hairston Jr. and from 2-4 minor leaguers for Sosa, and the Cubs pay around 10 of Sosa' 17 million dollar salary) by itself, because I think the Cubs aren't done dealing. Rumors say they'll trade some of those prospects to Tampa for Aubrey Huff, or to Washington for Brad Wilkerson or maybe even go after Magglio Ordonez (thought Boras wants SEVEN YEARS...screw you, Boras). If the Cubs follow up by doing that, I think they'll be a better team. If they platoon Hairston at 2nd with Walker or play Hairston in LF and sign Jeromy Burnitz, I think this a bad, bad move by them. Maybe Andy can answer this better than I can, but had Sosa really fallen so far so fast? Did he have to be traded? From the Orioles perspective, I think it was a necessary kind of move since they missed out on Beltran and Delgado and everyone else. Giving up a guy they can easily replace (Brian Roberts can play 2nd) and some decent prospects in return for an aging but still effective slugger is probably a good deal, and Sosa should sell tickets, if nothing else. It's also the first time two 500 HR guys (Sosa and Raffy) are on the same team. Check out this middle of the lineup for the 0's:
Melvin Mora
Miguel Tejada
Sammy Sosa
Javy Lopez
Raffy Palmeiro
Go back and see how Mora did last year, and you see that this lineup might score a helluva lot of runs. Too bad their pitching is craptacular.
Anyway, more Astros thoughts - if the Cubs make a trade for Huff and include Jason DuBois in the trade, the Rays would probably love to move Jose Cruz Jr., who I'm sure would love to come play for the 'Stros. So if that happens I'd be pretty happy, as Cruz Jr. would make a better all-around CF than anyone we've got.
I'm still stunned Sosa's not a Cub. It might take me a few days. He was a worthy adversary.
Sosa to Balitmore! Crazy. I thought there was no way in hell anyone would take him. But it looks like the Cubs are paying about $10 mil of his salary, which is about right. I think Baltimore — which, like Houston, hadn't done much this offseason — was looking to do anything to gain fan support. So they got desperate.
Look for the Cubbies to turn around and sign Magglio. Like today.
Look for the Cubbies to turn around and sign Magglio. Like today.
Friday, January 28, 2005
I like Astacio too - it's a low risk, high reward option. Sure, he might amount to nothing, but he's put up good numbers in the Dominican League. I think his past injuries might make him more suited to a relief role, though, which would still be fine. Either way, I'd like to get him.
Baseball Prospetus 2005 on Hammock:
It used to be that you'd see lots of teams use catchers at other positions instead of limiting them to catching. Usually, it was a right handed hitter who could mash lefties and do an acceptable job in the infield or outfield corners. Hammock is cut from that mold: He may not be an everday catcher, but he's versatile and has some pop.
You might recall I went as far as recommending the Astros sign Brian Jordan just to have a lefty masher and OF defensive replacement. Well, Hammock fits the lefty masher (805 careerOPS, 17 XBH in 157 AB's). I don't see any downside to trading for him, as long as we don't give up much. Like Astacio, it would be a low risk, high reward move at our weakest position.
I think it's often small moves at the margins like this that can really improve a team. Everyone knows about the superstar signings, but baseball (more than any other sport that I think of) is truly a team game. Otherwise the San Francisco Giants would never lose a game.
Baseball Prospetus 2005 on Hammock:
It used to be that you'd see lots of teams use catchers at other positions instead of limiting them to catching. Usually, it was a right handed hitter who could mash lefties and do an acceptable job in the infield or outfield corners. Hammock is cut from that mold: He may not be an everday catcher, but he's versatile and has some pop.
You might recall I went as far as recommending the Astros sign Brian Jordan just to have a lefty masher and OF defensive replacement. Well, Hammock fits the lefty masher (805 careerOPS, 17 XBH in 157 AB's). I don't see any downside to trading for him, as long as we don't give up much. Like Astacio, it would be a low risk, high reward move at our weakest position.
I think it's often small moves at the margins like this that can really improve a team. Everyone knows about the superstar signings, but baseball (more than any other sport that I think of) is truly a team game. Otherwise the San Francisco Giants would never lose a game.
How about Pedro Astacio? Word is he's beasting down in the Dominican Leagues. We should take a look at him. And soon, too, because I hear he's close to a minor league with the Red Sox. What would he do there? Be their seventh starter? Ridiculous. We should offer him a minor league deal too. Pencil him in as our fifth starter and see how he does. There are a lot of worse options I can think of (Duckworth, Redding...). Sign this guy up.
I just read on Baseball Primer that the Diamondbacks released catcher Robby Hammock to make room for Tony Clark. The Astros should pick him up IMMEDIATELY. Catcher is by far the weakest position in the organization; Ausmus and Chavez both struggle to put up a 700 OPS, and our best prospect is 20 year-old Hector Gimenez who looked overmatched at AA last year. Hammock would make a great filler for 2006 and maybe even 2007 while Gimenez learns how to hit. He also caught Randy Johnson's perfect game in 2004, so he must be good.
Robby Hammock's stats
If you don't want to check out the link, here's the rundown: Hammock will be 27 until May 11, he's a career .262 / .315 / .441 hitter with 42 XBH and 30 BB in 390 AB. His fielding numbers are also excellent. So a young catcher who'd come cheap, plays good defense and can hit for power? I'd say that might help the 'Stros. Please pick him up.
Robby Hammock's stats
If you don't want to check out the link, here's the rundown: Hammock will be 27 until May 11, he's a career .262 / .315 / .441 hitter with 42 XBH and 30 BB in 390 AB. His fielding numbers are also excellent. So a young catcher who'd come cheap, plays good defense and can hit for power? I'd say that might help the 'Stros. Please pick him up.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
So it's 1 year / 10.5 million for Berkman. Not a bad deal, but I can't help thinking that this actually decreases our chances of signing Lance to a long-term deal. If we could sign him to a long term deal now, why didn't we? And if we can't, I'm sure Lance is going to at least want to test free agency at the end of the year. And how many players sign with their original team when they're free agents? Not too many. 20%, at most?
So while I'm glad we locked up Berkman for one more year, I'm a little disappointed we couldn't sign him to a long term deal. With that said, if I had to choose between letting Berkman walk at the end of the year or giving him Beltran's 7 /105 contract, I let him walk. I still think Oswalt is more important to the future of the Astros. But I still want them both on the team.
I wonder how Berkman's knee injury affects the organization's willingness to consider a long-term contract? Now that I think about it, you might at least want some evidence that this injury won't affect Lance's play before you give him 50-60 mil. So maybe it's a good job of restraint, after all. I'm allowed to change my mind, right?
So while I'm glad we locked up Berkman for one more year, I'm a little disappointed we couldn't sign him to a long term deal. With that said, if I had to choose between letting Berkman walk at the end of the year or giving him Beltran's 7 /105 contract, I let him walk. I still think Oswalt is more important to the future of the Astros. But I still want them both on the team.
I wonder how Berkman's knee injury affects the organization's willingness to consider a long-term contract? Now that I think about it, you might at least want some evidence that this injury won't affect Lance's play before you give him 50-60 mil. So maybe it's a good job of restraint, after all. I'm allowed to change my mind, right?
Snow day today. A few comments the last few days have made me realize: no matter what I think should happen, Craig Biggio will probably be starting the entire season for the Astros, barring injury. Phil Garner has said that as things stand right now, he anticipates a starting outfield of Biggio / Lane / Palmeiro. I find this strange, since I believe Palmeiro to be better defensively than Lane, but perhaps Garner just wants Lane to get used to CF, since that's where he'll probably play when Berkman returns: Biggio / Lane / Berkman. I think it's too much to ask to have Biggio return to 2nd, although he's said he wouldn't mind doing so: we have top prospect Chris Burke and overrated veteran Jose Vizcaino ready to go there.
It's not the worst thing in the world that Biggio starts - he had a nice bounceback year last year, right? Well, yes, but in an interesting way - his extra base hits jumped from 61 to 71, his batting average jumped 17 points, and his slugging average jumped 57 points, but his OBP (certainly the most important stat for a leadoff hitter, if not for all hitters) actually fell 13 points to .337, and he only drew 40 walks in 633 AB's, a troubling amount, and he slumped badly n the 2nd half (.256 / .308 / .451). What does it all mean? I think Biggio worked hard in the offseason to get some power back; he worked on eliminating the leg kick, allowing him to catch up to fastballs easier. However, he decided to swing at everything, maybe to 'prove' that he can still drive the ball. He needs to get back to drawing walks, or be moved down in the batting order.
Some more good news? Biggio's a fan favorite: he'll sell tickets. Left field is probably the easiest position to play at The Juice Box; he can play shallow because of the short porch, which minimizes his below-average arm. And it IS below-average. I remember in the NLCS against St. Lous, on a routine flyball to LF, Albert Pujols (bad heel and all) easily tagged up from 2nd to 3rd base. So Biggio's arm is pretty damn bad.
The main thing this all means is that if we trade for a CF, I think Lane would probably go to the bench (at least when Berkman returns.) If this is true, then maybe we shouldn't trade for a CF - we need to start the rebuilding process eventually, and Lane is likely to be part of that.
So: Lane as a CF. Lane's overall defensive numbers are pretty frightening, with a 1.03 Range Factor (league average: 1.86) over 129 games. This might be because Lane was often a late-game defensive replacement, but I wonder if he can handle CF. There's only one way to find out, I guess, and Lance Berkman actually did all right in center, so why not Lane?
I also saw that we lost D.J. Houlton in the Rule 5 draft (to the Dodgers). What the hell? I honestly don't understand how Rule 5 works, but this guy was our 2nd best pitching prospect last year, right after Ezequiel Astacio, so what gives?
Speaking of Astacio, I'd like to see him get a long look in Spring Training. The Astros have traditionally been aggressive in promoting young pitchers (Oswalt, Miller, Carlos Hernandez), so I hope Astacio also benefits from this.
It's not the worst thing in the world that Biggio starts - he had a nice bounceback year last year, right? Well, yes, but in an interesting way - his extra base hits jumped from 61 to 71, his batting average jumped 17 points, and his slugging average jumped 57 points, but his OBP (certainly the most important stat for a leadoff hitter, if not for all hitters) actually fell 13 points to .337, and he only drew 40 walks in 633 AB's, a troubling amount, and he slumped badly n the 2nd half (.256 / .308 / .451). What does it all mean? I think Biggio worked hard in the offseason to get some power back; he worked on eliminating the leg kick, allowing him to catch up to fastballs easier. However, he decided to swing at everything, maybe to 'prove' that he can still drive the ball. He needs to get back to drawing walks, or be moved down in the batting order.
Some more good news? Biggio's a fan favorite: he'll sell tickets. Left field is probably the easiest position to play at The Juice Box; he can play shallow because of the short porch, which minimizes his below-average arm. And it IS below-average. I remember in the NLCS against St. Lous, on a routine flyball to LF, Albert Pujols (bad heel and all) easily tagged up from 2nd to 3rd base. So Biggio's arm is pretty damn bad.
The main thing this all means is that if we trade for a CF, I think Lane would probably go to the bench (at least when Berkman returns.) If this is true, then maybe we shouldn't trade for a CF - we need to start the rebuilding process eventually, and Lane is likely to be part of that.
So: Lane as a CF. Lane's overall defensive numbers are pretty frightening, with a 1.03 Range Factor (league average: 1.86) over 129 games. This might be because Lane was often a late-game defensive replacement, but I wonder if he can handle CF. There's only one way to find out, I guess, and Lance Berkman actually did all right in center, so why not Lane?
I also saw that we lost D.J. Houlton in the Rule 5 draft (to the Dodgers). What the hell? I honestly don't understand how Rule 5 works, but this guy was our 2nd best pitching prospect last year, right after Ezequiel Astacio, so what gives?
Speaking of Astacio, I'd like to see him get a long look in Spring Training. The Astros have traditionally been aggressive in promoting young pitchers (Oswalt, Miller, Carlos Hernandez), so I hope Astacio also benefits from this.
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
It's snowing again here in Flagstaff, and my classes are starting to get a little more interesting. It's a busy semester, though, and my plans to have a poker 'job' on the side (10 hours a week, 25 dollars an hour, $1000 a month, to basically pay for rent + utilities) have fallen through, for now. But I've still got time to analyze some Astros rumors:
1. I read that now that the Marlins have signed Carlos Delgado they're looking to move an OF (most likely Juan Encarnacion) and are willing to package a good 1B prospect like Jason Stokes along with him. Encarnacion makes 4.25 million, which is a lot for a corner outfielder who has never had better than a .360 OBP. Stokes is a decent prospect, but not a great one (820 OPS or so at age 22 in AA) - he strikes out a ton and is pretty bad defensively. I thought maybe Encarnacion could play the Brian Jordan-esque role I suggested a week or so ago, mashing lefties, playing good defense, and an occasional pinch running episode, but Juan actually has a lower OPS against lefties than righties, he never walks, and his SB% is only around 70%. His defense is decent, though. Basically, I don't like this trade, unless we trade them absolutely nothing of value (Brandon Duckworth? Jose Vizcaino?).
2. There's a link from AstrosDaily that we're working on signing Berkman to a long-term contract. That's fine; he's a great player. But we need to exercise a little caution; as I've written before, Lance's power has gone down the last few years, players of his 'body type' generally don't age too well, he's only average defensively, and he eventually projects as a 1B, where offense can be found easily. None of this means we shouldn't sign him, as he's only 28, and has never done worse than a .927 OPS the last 4 years. But I might max out at 4 or 5 years, for no more than 10 millon a year if at all possible. Probably I'd start with 4 / 40, and go up to 5 / 55 at the highest. If given the choice between Oswalt and Berkman for the next 5 years, I choose Oswalt. Luckily we have club control of Oswalt for one more year than Berkman, so we can work out a contract with him next year - the only 'danger' is that Oswalt has a dominant year, wins the Cy Young, and is now out of price range. And I don't want to have to worry about Oswalt dominating. So sign him now.
I'm pumping out the summer baseball internships this week: the 'best' are with Atlanta, Oakland, Washington, Cincinnati, and Colorado, because they have internships somewhat related to statistics (baseball operations, player development, scouting, etc.)
I plan on sending letters to basically every MLB team, including an incredible one to the Astros, basically offering my soul for a stats internship. Wish me luck.
1. I read that now that the Marlins have signed Carlos Delgado they're looking to move an OF (most likely Juan Encarnacion) and are willing to package a good 1B prospect like Jason Stokes along with him. Encarnacion makes 4.25 million, which is a lot for a corner outfielder who has never had better than a .360 OBP. Stokes is a decent prospect, but not a great one (820 OPS or so at age 22 in AA) - he strikes out a ton and is pretty bad defensively. I thought maybe Encarnacion could play the Brian Jordan-esque role I suggested a week or so ago, mashing lefties, playing good defense, and an occasional pinch running episode, but Juan actually has a lower OPS against lefties than righties, he never walks, and his SB% is only around 70%. His defense is decent, though. Basically, I don't like this trade, unless we trade them absolutely nothing of value (Brandon Duckworth? Jose Vizcaino?).
2. There's a link from AstrosDaily that we're working on signing Berkman to a long-term contract. That's fine; he's a great player. But we need to exercise a little caution; as I've written before, Lance's power has gone down the last few years, players of his 'body type' generally don't age too well, he's only average defensively, and he eventually projects as a 1B, where offense can be found easily. None of this means we shouldn't sign him, as he's only 28, and has never done worse than a .927 OPS the last 4 years. But I might max out at 4 or 5 years, for no more than 10 millon a year if at all possible. Probably I'd start with 4 / 40, and go up to 5 / 55 at the highest. If given the choice between Oswalt and Berkman for the next 5 years, I choose Oswalt. Luckily we have club control of Oswalt for one more year than Berkman, so we can work out a contract with him next year - the only 'danger' is that Oswalt has a dominant year, wins the Cy Young, and is now out of price range. And I don't want to have to worry about Oswalt dominating. So sign him now.
I'm pumping out the summer baseball internships this week: the 'best' are with Atlanta, Oakland, Washington, Cincinnati, and Colorado, because they have internships somewhat related to statistics (baseball operations, player development, scouting, etc.)
I plan on sending letters to basically every MLB team, including an incredible one to the Astros, basically offering my soul for a stats internship. Wish me luck.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
I've assumed this whole offseason that Craig Biggio would move back to 2nd base, where he's played the majority of his career (including stints at catcher and the outfield). That way we could go with an OF of Lane / a CF who we trade for / Berkman, and an IF of Lamberg / Everett / Biggio (and Burke) / Bagwell, and Ausmus at C. I still think we'll trade for a CF, but is asking Biggio to move back to 2nd base really the best course of action?
You might have heard of the defensive spectrum, and it goes a little something like:
SS - 2B - CF - C - 3B - RF - LF - 1B.
At least that's what I think; maybe you could switch 2B and CF or LF and 1B. Anywho, second base is a much more demanding defensive position than left field, particularly at The Juice Box, where left field is approximately the size of a Cracker Jack Box because of the short wall.
Biggio is a special case since he's played more of his career at 2nd than anywhere else, but I think that it might work out better to have Biggio as a 4th OF / utility guy, able to play 2B only in case of an emergency. As long as he doesn't take playing time away from Jason Lane - Lane 'deserves' playing time more than Burke does. So an OF of Biggio / CF / Lane (with Palmeiro and Taveras as backup) to start, then Lane / CF / Berkman, with Biggio and Palmeiro as backup.
There are still plenty of CF rumors out there, but frankly, I'm sick of talking about them, so I won't mention them until one actually happens.
You might have heard of the defensive spectrum, and it goes a little something like:
SS - 2B - CF - C - 3B - RF - LF - 1B.
At least that's what I think; maybe you could switch 2B and CF or LF and 1B. Anywho, second base is a much more demanding defensive position than left field, particularly at The Juice Box, where left field is approximately the size of a Cracker Jack Box because of the short wall.
Biggio is a special case since he's played more of his career at 2nd than anywhere else, but I think that it might work out better to have Biggio as a 4th OF / utility guy, able to play 2B only in case of an emergency. As long as he doesn't take playing time away from Jason Lane - Lane 'deserves' playing time more than Burke does. So an OF of Biggio / CF / Lane (with Palmeiro and Taveras as backup) to start, then Lane / CF / Berkman, with Biggio and Palmeiro as backup.
There are still plenty of CF rumors out there, but frankly, I'm sick of talking about them, so I won't mention them until one actually happens.
Sunday, January 23, 2005
The Astros signed The Ageless John Franco to a 1 year, 700K deal today. I don't like it at all. Chris Hammond just signed with the Padres for 750K, and here are their combined numbers from the last 3 years:
Hammond, '02 - '04: 192.2 IP, 2.06 ERA
Franco, '02-'04: 80.1 IP, 4.15 ERA
And here are their numbers against lefties:
Hammond, '02-'04: 252 AB, 626 OPS allowed
Franco, '02-'04: 120 AB, 637 OPS allowed.
Ok, so they are pretty similar against lefties, but Hammond is younger (he's 39, so there aren't too many pitchers he's younger than), healthier, and WAAAAY better against righties.
There's no silver lining here: we blew this one. We could have a much better pitcher for an extra 50K, and instead we waited too long, and now we're going to have to settle for either John Franco or Mike Gallo as our lefty reliever. And if we go with both, make that two mediocrities in our bullpen, and some potentially useful reliever (Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Carlos Hernandez?) gets the shaft. Thumbs down, Astros management. Thumbs down.
But we're stuck with him now. My bullpen?
Closer - Brad Lidge. Duh.
Set-up guy - Chad Qualls, unless someone else steps up.
Middle Relief: Chad Harville
Dan Wheeler
Mike Burns
Lefty: John Franco (better against lefties than Gallo, at least)
Spot Starter: Dave Burba vs. Pete Munro
This is assuming Carlos Hernandez is the 5th starter and Tim Redding gets traded in a package for a center fielder.
If we had been a little more active on the free agent market, we could have easily had
Lidge
Antonio Osuna
Chris Hammond
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Chad Harville
Mike Burns
which is so much better than what we have it hurts me. I'm betting Osuna and Hammond combine for 100 innings of sub-3.00 ERA, and we could have had them for under 2 million combined. Damn damn damn.
Hammond, '02 - '04: 192.2 IP, 2.06 ERA
Franco, '02-'04: 80.1 IP, 4.15 ERA
And here are their numbers against lefties:
Hammond, '02-'04: 252 AB, 626 OPS allowed
Franco, '02-'04: 120 AB, 637 OPS allowed.
Ok, so they are pretty similar against lefties, but Hammond is younger (he's 39, so there aren't too many pitchers he's younger than), healthier, and WAAAAY better against righties.
There's no silver lining here: we blew this one. We could have a much better pitcher for an extra 50K, and instead we waited too long, and now we're going to have to settle for either John Franco or Mike Gallo as our lefty reliever. And if we go with both, make that two mediocrities in our bullpen, and some potentially useful reliever (Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Carlos Hernandez?) gets the shaft. Thumbs down, Astros management. Thumbs down.
But we're stuck with him now. My bullpen?
Closer - Brad Lidge. Duh.
Set-up guy - Chad Qualls, unless someone else steps up.
Middle Relief: Chad Harville
Dan Wheeler
Mike Burns
Lefty: John Franco (better against lefties than Gallo, at least)
Spot Starter: Dave Burba vs. Pete Munro
This is assuming Carlos Hernandez is the 5th starter and Tim Redding gets traded in a package for a center fielder.
If we had been a little more active on the free agent market, we could have easily had
Lidge
Antonio Osuna
Chris Hammond
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Chad Harville
Mike Burns
which is so much better than what we have it hurts me. I'm betting Osuna and Hammond combine for 100 innings of sub-3.00 ERA, and we could have had them for under 2 million combined. Damn damn damn.
I'm picking the Falcons over the Eagles (Philly's NFC Championship Game tradition continues) and the Steelers over the Patriots (more of a wish pick, really; I'm sick of the Pats and the Tom Brady lovefest).
There is a rumor going around that the Astros and the Twins might be close to a trade of Redding, Ensberg, and Jason Hirsh (pitcher, 1st round pick last year) for Torii Hunter. I'm not sure how I feel about this trade; Hunter is overrated offensively: he's put up a .310 and a .330 OBP the last two years after his career year of '02. He hits for a little power and has some speed, but his true value comes defensively, where you've all seen him crashing into walls or robbing Barry Bonds in the All Star Game a few years back. However, based on baseball-reference.com's stats, he's lost a step, as his former lofty Range Factor stats have slipped to just slightly above average.
Redding probably needs to be traded, and although I'm still high on Ensberg (I think he was more hurt than he let on last year, and he'll bounce back to somewhere in between '03 and '04), we've got Lamb and there are also rumors we might be looking to acquire Placido Polanco, who is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Polanco is excellent at any IF position defensively and has put up OPS+ of 112 and 101 the last two years. I guess he and Lamb would platoon at 3B, though he's a great insurance policy if anyone in the IF gets hurt or Burke struggles, etc.
If these moves are done in combination, they might work out all right, as an up-the-middle defense of Ausmus, Everett, Burke, and Hunter would probably be the best in baseball. However, I wouldn't do the Hunter trade by itself, as Lamb is pretty bad defensively.
No matter what happens with CF, I'd love to trade for Polanco. The guy is awesome. We don't have that much room at the moment, with Ensberg, Lamb, Everett, Burke, Biggio, and Vizcaino all as possible 3B / SS / 2B candidates, but there is always room for a guy like Polanco. And the Phillies have a full infield, so he might come cheap.
There is a rumor going around that the Astros and the Twins might be close to a trade of Redding, Ensberg, and Jason Hirsh (pitcher, 1st round pick last year) for Torii Hunter. I'm not sure how I feel about this trade; Hunter is overrated offensively: he's put up a .310 and a .330 OBP the last two years after his career year of '02. He hits for a little power and has some speed, but his true value comes defensively, where you've all seen him crashing into walls or robbing Barry Bonds in the All Star Game a few years back. However, based on baseball-reference.com's stats, he's lost a step, as his former lofty Range Factor stats have slipped to just slightly above average.
Redding probably needs to be traded, and although I'm still high on Ensberg (I think he was more hurt than he let on last year, and he'll bounce back to somewhere in between '03 and '04), we've got Lamb and there are also rumors we might be looking to acquire Placido Polanco, who is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Polanco is excellent at any IF position defensively and has put up OPS+ of 112 and 101 the last two years. I guess he and Lamb would platoon at 3B, though he's a great insurance policy if anyone in the IF gets hurt or Burke struggles, etc.
If these moves are done in combination, they might work out all right, as an up-the-middle defense of Ausmus, Everett, Burke, and Hunter would probably be the best in baseball. However, I wouldn't do the Hunter trade by itself, as Lamb is pretty bad defensively.
No matter what happens with CF, I'd love to trade for Polanco. The guy is awesome. We don't have that much room at the moment, with Ensberg, Lamb, Everett, Burke, Biggio, and Vizcaino all as possible 3B / SS / 2B candidates, but there is always room for a guy like Polanco. And the Phillies have a full infield, so he might come cheap.
Friday, January 21, 2005
Apparently Astros management wasn't as insulted by Clemens' 22 million proposal as I was, as today they agreed to a 1 year, 18 million dollar deal. I did mention that Clemens was a special case - he sells tickets, plain and simple. He's the most famous and probably best pitcher of our lifetime, can still bring it, I think that all his home starts were sell-outs last season, etc., etc.
18 million is still a lot of money, but honestly, how else are we gonna spend it? I guess we could lock up Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals, but we might be able to lock up Berkman this year for 5/60 or something and then lock up Oswalt next year after Clemens leaves.
The fact is we are a MUCH better team with Clemens than without, so I can't really say anything bad about this signing. Oswalt / Pettitte / Clemens / Backe / Redding or Munro or Hernandez is a huge step up from any rotation without Clemens. Will this be the year he ages? I doubt it; the guy is still in tremendous shape and you can't really argue with 18-4, 2.89 ERA, 218K's from last year.
My main concern is where we go from here. If we just call this offseason done with, I'm still pretty worried. I think the Astros are still a bit of a longshot to make the playoffs, and we're an old team (Clemens, Biggio, Bagwell, Pettitte, Ausmus), so we need to recognize we have to look towards the future. So we should at least consider signing Berkman or Oswalt to long-term deals.
I mentioned Leskanic as a bullpen candidate, and I stand by him, but I also think Jeff Nelson would be a nice pickup. I think the Cubs are likely to feature a 2-5 of Garciaparra / Sosa / Ramirez / Lee, and Nelson is death (absolute death) against righties. He'd be worth his 1.5 million or whatever just from pitching against the Cubs and Pujols and Rolen.
18 million is still a lot of money, but honestly, how else are we gonna spend it? I guess we could lock up Berkman and Oswalt to long-term deals, but we might be able to lock up Berkman this year for 5/60 or something and then lock up Oswalt next year after Clemens leaves.
The fact is we are a MUCH better team with Clemens than without, so I can't really say anything bad about this signing. Oswalt / Pettitte / Clemens / Backe / Redding or Munro or Hernandez is a huge step up from any rotation without Clemens. Will this be the year he ages? I doubt it; the guy is still in tremendous shape and you can't really argue with 18-4, 2.89 ERA, 218K's from last year.
My main concern is where we go from here. If we just call this offseason done with, I'm still pretty worried. I think the Astros are still a bit of a longshot to make the playoffs, and we're an old team (Clemens, Biggio, Bagwell, Pettitte, Ausmus), so we need to recognize we have to look towards the future. So we should at least consider signing Berkman or Oswalt to long-term deals.
I mentioned Leskanic as a bullpen candidate, and I stand by him, but I also think Jeff Nelson would be a nice pickup. I think the Cubs are likely to feature a 2-5 of Garciaparra / Sosa / Ramirez / Lee, and Nelson is death (absolute death) against righties. He'd be worth his 1.5 million or whatever just from pitching against the Cubs and Pujols and Rolen.
Thursday, January 20, 2005
Well, no more Brian Jordan, as the Braves signed him to a 1 year / 1 million dollar deal.
There have been quite a few players signed in the last week or so (Jordan, Loaiza, Antonio Osuna, Scott Williamson, Steve Reed) that I thought could definitely help the Astros. And we have done what we've basically done all offseason: nothing.
I realize that we were focused on Beltran for a long time, and now we're probably trying to figure out the arbitration deals for the big 3 first, but still...we've done nothing. Absolutely nothing. As a GM, you have to be proactive, not reactive, and so far Purpura has done a terrible job of addressing team needs. If he really think re-signing Viz and Palmeiro are the only things needed this offseason, it might be a painful few years. Perhaps he's simply better suited to player development.
The only player left on the free agent market that I think might be worth a look is Curtis Leskanic. He's been a pretty solid bullpen addition for the last few years, and you can't expect all our guys (Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Burns(?), Gallo, Burba(?), Wendell(?)) to work out. So damn it, do something, Purpura!
There have been quite a few players signed in the last week or so (Jordan, Loaiza, Antonio Osuna, Scott Williamson, Steve Reed) that I thought could definitely help the Astros. And we have done what we've basically done all offseason: nothing.
I realize that we were focused on Beltran for a long time, and now we're probably trying to figure out the arbitration deals for the big 3 first, but still...we've done nothing. Absolutely nothing. As a GM, you have to be proactive, not reactive, and so far Purpura has done a terrible job of addressing team needs. If he really think re-signing Viz and Palmeiro are the only things needed this offseason, it might be a painful few years. Perhaps he's simply better suited to player development.
The only player left on the free agent market that I think might be worth a look is Curtis Leskanic. He's been a pretty solid bullpen addition for the last few years, and you can't expect all our guys (Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Burns(?), Gallo, Burba(?), Wendell(?)) to work out. So damn it, do something, Purpura!
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
It's arbitration time.
The Astros have 3 of the 4 largest differences between a player's asking price (1st number) and the team's counter-offer (2nd number):
Roger Clemens: 22mil / 13.5
Roy Oswalt: 7.8 / 6
Lance Berkman: 11 / 10 mil
Well, that's some money. I'm kind of surprised we can offer the 29.5 million dollars we'd be spending if those big 3 accept those offers.
Brad Ausmus makes 2 million, Viz and Palmeiro both make around 1 million, Bagwell makes about 16 million, Pettitte goes up to 7.5 million, Lidge should get a raise to around 3 million, a mystery CFer will get around 3.5 million, and everyone else (that leaves Chavez, Lamb, Burke, Everett, Ensberg, Lane, Taveras, Backe, Munro, Redding, Hernandez, Duckworth, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Gallo, Burns, and Astacio) will probably average around 750K = (750)(18) = 13.5 million (I did that in my head....woooo.) So add all that up and it equals 77 million. Our payroll last year was 'only' 74.66 million. So what gives?
I know the Astros and the Rockets are getting a new TV deal that should increase revenue. And the team's succesful 2004 (one game away from WS, home sell-outs the entire last 1/4 of the season) should generate some buzz heading into '05.
I think I would rather spend the 29.5 million we could spend in arbitration on the big 3 by signing Berkman to a 5 year / 60 million dollar deal (a little less than what Vladi got) and Oswalt to a 4 year / 48 million dollar deal. That still leaves 5.5 million to play around with. Give Brian Jordan a 1 year / 1 million dollar deal, and give Esteban Loaiza a 1 year / 2 million dollar deal with up to 4.5 in incentives (200 IP, sub-4.00 ERA).
Of course, Clemens is a special case. It seemed like every home start he made was a sellout. He'll sell tickets. But my god, 22 million? I'd tell him to shove it up his ass, thanks for losing Game 7, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
The Astros have 3 of the 4 largest differences between a player's asking price (1st number) and the team's counter-offer (2nd number):
Roger Clemens: 22mil / 13.5
Roy Oswalt: 7.8 / 6
Lance Berkman: 11 / 10 mil
Well, that's some money. I'm kind of surprised we can offer the 29.5 million dollars we'd be spending if those big 3 accept those offers.
Brad Ausmus makes 2 million, Viz and Palmeiro both make around 1 million, Bagwell makes about 16 million, Pettitte goes up to 7.5 million, Lidge should get a raise to around 3 million, a mystery CFer will get around 3.5 million, and everyone else (that leaves Chavez, Lamb, Burke, Everett, Ensberg, Lane, Taveras, Backe, Munro, Redding, Hernandez, Duckworth, Qualls, Wheeler, Harville, Gallo, Burns, and Astacio) will probably average around 750K = (750)(18) = 13.5 million (I did that in my head....woooo.) So add all that up and it equals 77 million. Our payroll last year was 'only' 74.66 million. So what gives?
I know the Astros and the Rockets are getting a new TV deal that should increase revenue. And the team's succesful 2004 (one game away from WS, home sell-outs the entire last 1/4 of the season) should generate some buzz heading into '05.
I think I would rather spend the 29.5 million we could spend in arbitration on the big 3 by signing Berkman to a 5 year / 60 million dollar deal (a little less than what Vladi got) and Oswalt to a 4 year / 48 million dollar deal. That still leaves 5.5 million to play around with. Give Brian Jordan a 1 year / 1 million dollar deal, and give Esteban Loaiza a 1 year / 2 million dollar deal with up to 4.5 in incentives (200 IP, sub-4.00 ERA).
Of course, Clemens is a special case. It seemed like every home start he made was a sellout. He'll sell tickets. But my god, 22 million? I'd tell him to shove it up his ass, thanks for losing Game 7, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Monday, January 17, 2005
Let's talk about the Astros bench.
I'm going to assume we pull off a trade for a CF, whether it's Winn, Cruz, Cameron, or whomever. I'll also assume that Berkman misses the first month of the season. If there is any silver lining to Lance's injury, it's that we could play Biggio / mystery CF / Lane in the OF until Berkman comes back and we could give Chris Burke some solid playing time at 2B. The other alternative would be to keep Biggio at 2B and start Palmeiro in RF. So you're essentially choosing between Chris Burke (tons of potential, good speed, good defense) vs. Orlando Palmeiro (9 HR in 1909 career AB's). PLEASE go with Burke. Then when Berkman comes back, we go Lane / CF / Berkman, and move Biggio back to 2B. I would really like it if Burke still got the starts when Pettitte is pitching, because he is a groundball pitcher and Burke is superior defensively to Biggio.
That way Burke could get maybe 20 starts (Berkman out) + 25 starts (after Berkman comes back, when Pettitte pitches) = 45 starts = 200 AB's, minimum. We need to see what he can do.
Ok, so once Berkman gets back, here's our bench, as I see it:
Orlando Palmeiro, OF
Willy Taveras, OF
Mike Lamb, CI
Jose Vizcaino, MI
Chris Burke, MI
Raul Chavez, C
One thing stands out at me when I look at that bench: No right-handed power. At all. None. The only possible source of RH power woud be Chris Burke, and he didn't show much power before 2004.
This is a big problem. Why? Well, pinch hitters are pretty important to the Astros. Why is that? Because 7-8-9. Everett, Ausmus, pitcher. That's 3 lineup spots that may well put up 700 OPS or below. We need some big bats off the bench. Lamb will certainly be our first PH option, then probably Palmeiro / Viz, and then....?? Taveras is better suited to be a LIDR (late inning defensive replacement) and pinch runner, and Raul Chavez ain't exactly great with the bat.
I'm not exactly sure what we can do here. My first choice would be to give Taveras a year in AAA and sign a cheap, 1 year deal with an OF that could provide some power from the right side (ideally, one that just crushes lefties). Palmeiro would be a fine LIDR, and Burke would make a great pinch-runner. So who's out there?
Brian Jordan, career, vs. LHP: .318 / .372 / .556 (928 OPS). He also is an excellent fielder for his career.
I'll never forgive him for the Walt Weiss playoff game against the Astros, where I think he went 5-for-5 with 4 RBI or some crap. And he can't hit righties at all anymore. And he was pretty terrible in '04. But the 3 years before that he put up OPS+'s of 110, 119, and 113 (100 is league average), and he'd be cheap. He only made 1.25 million last year, and he was terrible; I think a 1 year / 800K deal would be well worth it. Oh, and one last note about "there aren't any good LHP in the NL Central." Mark Mulder might have something to say about that now. Anyway, a lefty-crusher and solid fielder. It might be worth it.
Some of the recent news in baseball statistical circles has a pitcher's groundball-to-flyball ratio as being incredibly stable. If you read this blog regularly, I often cite the fact that a pitcher doesn't have too much control over batting average allowed. But one stat a pitcher does have control over is his GB / FB ratio. With that in mind, let's look at our starting rotation and their ratios: (Remember, a ratio over 1 means he allows more ground balls, and a ratio under 1 means more fly balls.) The first ratio is that pitcher's GB / FB ration in '04; the 2nd, their career ratio.
Roy Oswalt 1.19 / 1.33
Andy Pettitte 1.88 / 1.74
Roger Clemens* 1.47 / 1.45
Brandon Backe 1.04 / 0.92
Pete Munro 1.68 / 1.75
Tim Redding 1.13 / 1.11
Brandon Duckworth 1.02 / 1.03
Carlos Hernandez 0.80 / 1.08
Notice that the difference is never that great (Hernandez's is the largest, at 0.28, in a small sample size.) Why might these numbers matter? Well, for one, our infield defense might be improved from last year, thanks to Adam Everett staying healthy and Jeff Kent moving on from 2B (though Biggio will probably not be any better). And our OF defense should be better than the 1st half last year (Biggio in CF) but worse than the 2nd half (Beltran in CF). Anyway, see why I like starting Burke at 2nd when Pettitte is pitching? We don't need Biggio's 39 year old legs creaking around there when an extreme groundballer like Pettitte is going. Everyone else is pretty mild, although if Pete Munro (gulp) is our 4th or 5th starter, I wouldn't mind starting Burke there also. Oh, and I imagine Brandon Backe is hoping we don't sign Jeromy Burnitz.
One last thing: there are actually still a few decent relievers still out there. Curtis Leskanic, Steve Reed, and Paul Shuey are all solid; Shuey, in particular, might make a good set-up man to Lidge:
Lidge
Shuey
Qualls
Wheeler
Harville
Mike Burns (who I forgot last time but TORE UP Double-A in '04)
Mike Gallo
Man, I wish we had signed Chris Hammond. Oh well. What does it say about Mike Gallo if we're considering 106-year-old John Franco?
I'm checking for news about a CF pretty often these days. Hopefully we trade Redding and Bruntlett for Randy Winn soon, so I can relax.
Biggio
Winn
Berkman
Bagwell
Lane
Ensberg
Everett
Ausmus
You could do worse. How Lane, Ensberg, and Everett do in '05 will be huge.
I'm going to assume we pull off a trade for a CF, whether it's Winn, Cruz, Cameron, or whomever. I'll also assume that Berkman misses the first month of the season. If there is any silver lining to Lance's injury, it's that we could play Biggio / mystery CF / Lane in the OF until Berkman comes back and we could give Chris Burke some solid playing time at 2B. The other alternative would be to keep Biggio at 2B and start Palmeiro in RF. So you're essentially choosing between Chris Burke (tons of potential, good speed, good defense) vs. Orlando Palmeiro (9 HR in 1909 career AB's). PLEASE go with Burke. Then when Berkman comes back, we go Lane / CF / Berkman, and move Biggio back to 2B. I would really like it if Burke still got the starts when Pettitte is pitching, because he is a groundball pitcher and Burke is superior defensively to Biggio.
That way Burke could get maybe 20 starts (Berkman out) + 25 starts (after Berkman comes back, when Pettitte pitches) = 45 starts = 200 AB's, minimum. We need to see what he can do.
Ok, so once Berkman gets back, here's our bench, as I see it:
Orlando Palmeiro, OF
Willy Taveras, OF
Mike Lamb, CI
Jose Vizcaino, MI
Chris Burke, MI
Raul Chavez, C
One thing stands out at me when I look at that bench: No right-handed power. At all. None. The only possible source of RH power woud be Chris Burke, and he didn't show much power before 2004.
This is a big problem. Why? Well, pinch hitters are pretty important to the Astros. Why is that? Because 7-8-9. Everett, Ausmus, pitcher. That's 3 lineup spots that may well put up 700 OPS or below. We need some big bats off the bench. Lamb will certainly be our first PH option, then probably Palmeiro / Viz, and then....?? Taveras is better suited to be a LIDR (late inning defensive replacement) and pinch runner, and Raul Chavez ain't exactly great with the bat.
I'm not exactly sure what we can do here. My first choice would be to give Taveras a year in AAA and sign a cheap, 1 year deal with an OF that could provide some power from the right side (ideally, one that just crushes lefties). Palmeiro would be a fine LIDR, and Burke would make a great pinch-runner. So who's out there?
Brian Jordan, career, vs. LHP: .318 / .372 / .556 (928 OPS). He also is an excellent fielder for his career.
I'll never forgive him for the Walt Weiss playoff game against the Astros, where I think he went 5-for-5 with 4 RBI or some crap. And he can't hit righties at all anymore. And he was pretty terrible in '04. But the 3 years before that he put up OPS+'s of 110, 119, and 113 (100 is league average), and he'd be cheap. He only made 1.25 million last year, and he was terrible; I think a 1 year / 800K deal would be well worth it. Oh, and one last note about "there aren't any good LHP in the NL Central." Mark Mulder might have something to say about that now. Anyway, a lefty-crusher and solid fielder. It might be worth it.
Some of the recent news in baseball statistical circles has a pitcher's groundball-to-flyball ratio as being incredibly stable. If you read this blog regularly, I often cite the fact that a pitcher doesn't have too much control over batting average allowed. But one stat a pitcher does have control over is his GB / FB ratio. With that in mind, let's look at our starting rotation and their ratios: (Remember, a ratio over 1 means he allows more ground balls, and a ratio under 1 means more fly balls.) The first ratio is that pitcher's GB / FB ration in '04; the 2nd, their career ratio.
Roy Oswalt 1.19 / 1.33
Andy Pettitte 1.88 / 1.74
Roger Clemens* 1.47 / 1.45
Brandon Backe 1.04 / 0.92
Pete Munro 1.68 / 1.75
Tim Redding 1.13 / 1.11
Brandon Duckworth 1.02 / 1.03
Carlos Hernandez 0.80 / 1.08
Notice that the difference is never that great (Hernandez's is the largest, at 0.28, in a small sample size.) Why might these numbers matter? Well, for one, our infield defense might be improved from last year, thanks to Adam Everett staying healthy and Jeff Kent moving on from 2B (though Biggio will probably not be any better). And our OF defense should be better than the 1st half last year (Biggio in CF) but worse than the 2nd half (Beltran in CF). Anyway, see why I like starting Burke at 2nd when Pettitte is pitching? We don't need Biggio's 39 year old legs creaking around there when an extreme groundballer like Pettitte is going. Everyone else is pretty mild, although if Pete Munro (gulp) is our 4th or 5th starter, I wouldn't mind starting Burke there also. Oh, and I imagine Brandon Backe is hoping we don't sign Jeromy Burnitz.
One last thing: there are actually still a few decent relievers still out there. Curtis Leskanic, Steve Reed, and Paul Shuey are all solid; Shuey, in particular, might make a good set-up man to Lidge:
Lidge
Shuey
Qualls
Wheeler
Harville
Mike Burns (who I forgot last time but TORE UP Double-A in '04)
Mike Gallo
Man, I wish we had signed Chris Hammond. Oh well. What does it say about Mike Gallo if we're considering 106-year-old John Franco?
I'm checking for news about a CF pretty often these days. Hopefully we trade Redding and Bruntlett for Randy Winn soon, so I can relax.
Biggio
Winn
Berkman
Bagwell
Lane
Ensberg
Everett
Ausmus
You could do worse. How Lane, Ensberg, and Everett do in '05 will be huge.
Sunday, January 16, 2005
Check out what Pettitte said about his elbow:
"Let's put it this way," Pettitte said. "It doesn't hurt to comb my hair and brush my teeth and turn a doorknob like it did last year. I feel great. I think [the doctors] fixed me up, and I'm looking [forward] to having no problems."
Yikes. It hurt him to turn a doorknob? That's crazy. I wonder how long he went on pitching through pain before the doctors told him to quit. I feel like Pettitte's the kind of guy who would go out there every fifth day, no matter what state his arm was in. But I don't care who you are, you gotta let someone know if you're hurt, especially if you're a pitcher.
I haven't seen anything on AstrosDaily about Redding-for-Cruz, but I agree that it would be a great trade for both teams. Redding has, unfortunately, worn out his welcome in Houston. Few fans remember that he was a solid pitcher in 2003 despite the losing record. His terrible start last year is fresh in our minds, and no one (myself included) is excited about him being in our rotation in 2005.
As for Jose Cruz Jr.: He played with Lance at Rice, and his old man is already here. Rumor is he WANTS to come here and play for us. You gotta believe that a player will try harder if he's in a comfortable, desirable situation. And hopefully trying harder equals playing better and producing more runs.
Another option: Rusty Greer? He hasn't played since 2002, but check out his stats! Career .305 / .387 / .478!!! And he has 300 innings at centerfield. Just something to keep in mind. Maybe a minor-league deal? At worst he can be a fourth or fifth outfielder. Doof: he's 36.
Scott Williamson is still available. He is damn good. Sign him. Also Osuna, Powell, Nelson, Mendoza, Groom, Mecir, Steve Reed, Rick White, Scott Stewart, John Franco or Roberto Hernandez all make good bullpen candidates.
We could do a lot worse than signing a veteran starter to an incentive-laden deal. Sele overpowers no one, but he can eat innings. A 4.50 ERA entirely in the AL sounds decent to me. Nomo could bounce back. He always seems to waver, flip-flopping good years with bad ones. After a terrible year, he might be great in 2005. Omar Daal throws a lot of junk -- he might find his rythym. Pedro Astacio might be over his injuries, and the guy can pitch. Loaiza will cost too much for an unstable, unreliable pitcher.
It wouldn't take more than a million to sign any one of those other guys. We ought to take a chance. I like Sele the best out of this group. Like Darrell May, he will not dominate. But a 4.50 ERA isn't the worst thing in the world. Especially if we can't lure Rocket back, and if we end up trading Redding for Cruz, we gotta find some depth in our rotation. Oswalt and Pettitte are not the two healthiest guys around. But a base rotation of Oswalt-Pettitte-Sele-Backe-Hernandez/Duckworth/Munro might be just strong enough to win some games.
I really, really like the Atlanta Falcons right now. What other team in football is actually FUN to watch?
"Let's put it this way," Pettitte said. "It doesn't hurt to comb my hair and brush my teeth and turn a doorknob like it did last year. I feel great. I think [the doctors] fixed me up, and I'm looking [forward] to having no problems."
Yikes. It hurt him to turn a doorknob? That's crazy. I wonder how long he went on pitching through pain before the doctors told him to quit. I feel like Pettitte's the kind of guy who would go out there every fifth day, no matter what state his arm was in. But I don't care who you are, you gotta let someone know if you're hurt, especially if you're a pitcher.
I haven't seen anything on AstrosDaily about Redding-for-Cruz, but I agree that it would be a great trade for both teams. Redding has, unfortunately, worn out his welcome in Houston. Few fans remember that he was a solid pitcher in 2003 despite the losing record. His terrible start last year is fresh in our minds, and no one (myself included) is excited about him being in our rotation in 2005.
As for Jose Cruz Jr.: He played with Lance at Rice, and his old man is already here. Rumor is he WANTS to come here and play for us. You gotta believe that a player will try harder if he's in a comfortable, desirable situation. And hopefully trying harder equals playing better and producing more runs.
Another option: Rusty Greer? He hasn't played since 2002, but check out his stats! Career .305 / .387 / .478!!! And he has 300 innings at centerfield. Just something to keep in mind. Maybe a minor-league deal? At worst he can be a fourth or fifth outfielder. Doof: he's 36.
Scott Williamson is still available. He is damn good. Sign him. Also Osuna, Powell, Nelson, Mendoza, Groom, Mecir, Steve Reed, Rick White, Scott Stewart, John Franco or Roberto Hernandez all make good bullpen candidates.
We could do a lot worse than signing a veteran starter to an incentive-laden deal. Sele overpowers no one, but he can eat innings. A 4.50 ERA entirely in the AL sounds decent to me. Nomo could bounce back. He always seems to waver, flip-flopping good years with bad ones. After a terrible year, he might be great in 2005. Omar Daal throws a lot of junk -- he might find his rythym. Pedro Astacio might be over his injuries, and the guy can pitch. Loaiza will cost too much for an unstable, unreliable pitcher.
It wouldn't take more than a million to sign any one of those other guys. We ought to take a chance. I like Sele the best out of this group. Like Darrell May, he will not dominate. But a 4.50 ERA isn't the worst thing in the world. Especially if we can't lure Rocket back, and if we end up trading Redding for Cruz, we gotta find some depth in our rotation. Oswalt and Pettitte are not the two healthiest guys around. But a base rotation of Oswalt-Pettitte-Sele-Backe-Hernandez/Duckworth/Munro might be just strong enough to win some games.
I really, really like the Atlanta Falcons right now. What other team in football is actually FUN to watch?
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