Actual headline on yahoo.com: "Poll finds men want Jessica Alba as girlfriend." Wow. What a shocker!

I played some disc golf (for the first time in a few weeks!!) today with fellow stat guy Dustin and Ultimate Frisbee coach Lawrence. On my first drive I felt a stomach muscle twinge, but I fought through the pain to finish at even par (3 birdies, 3 bogies). Lawrence also shot even par: 18 pars! An incredible round. And Dustin had a nice 1 over round - good considering he has no real backhand.

State of the Union address tonight. Gotta go watch.

Check out Will Carroll's perspective on the Jeff Bagwell situation here. I agree with most of his points.

New Year's Fest (a Phoenix-area ultimate frisbee tournament) was a ton of fun this past weekend. I played with the NAU men's team El Ponderoso, and while our overall record wasn't great (1-5), we played some great teams, had an awesome time, and got to watch the Open Men's final between two really really good club teams. And I bought a used Nalgene water bottle for one dollar. YES.

I don't want to talk about the Bagwell saga today - it's too depressing. In some good news, the Astros signed former top catching prospect J.R. House. He's coming off shoulder surgery, but he tore up the minors in the Pirates organization a few years back, and I'll take any catching prospect I can get. I think he and Quintero should be good to go in '08 when Brad Ausmus is done.

I've been playing a lot of Ultimate Frisbee lately. It took me a while to get into it, but Flagstaff is a great town for it (plenty of space, lots of good athletes, kind of quirky) and I live right by the coaches of the NAU men's and women's teams. We've got our first big tournament this weekend in Phoenix. I also have a full house for the first time in a while - 2 girls moved in during the last few weeks. They seem really cool - Nancy is 31, and has been a kindergarten teacher for the last 4 years; Becky is 23, and works full time at The Dollar Tree while going to school. So far, so good.

More Bagwell news: It looks like the Astros are going to try and collect on their 15.6 million dollar insurance policy on Jeff Bagwell. This could get messy - apparently if Bagwell tries to play at all in spring training, we might not be able to collect. And Jeff has said he wants the opportunity to play. I think this could get pretty ugly, which would be a shame. Unfortunately, I believe the Astros are doing the right thing here - I haven't heard anything about Bagwell being able to throw any better, so I don't see how he can field his position. It's a sad state of affairs, but I hope Jeff realizes his time might be up.

In other baseball news, the Indians reportedly will trade Coco Crisp to the Red Sox are Andy Marte and Guillermo Mota (note: there might be more players involved.) Then they'll turn around and trade Arthur Rhodes to the Phillies for Jason Michaels. I understand these trades for all teams involved, but I love them for the Indians. Crisp is a solid player; only 25, put up an .810 OPS last year, solid defensively - but he's replaceable, and Marte is a top 5 prospect, Mota is a solid set-up guy, and Jason Michaels has a career .380 OBP, and should be an upgrade on Crisp. Boston was pretty desperate for a CF, so they need a guy like Crisp. I've heard they'll also sign Alex Gonzalez to play SS, which I don't like. They should just go with a Cora / Pedroia platoon. I'm kinda surprised the Phillies couldn't get more than Rhodes for Jason Michaels. I wonder if the Red Sox would have just considered trading with the Phillies (Mota for Michaels?) - then they keep Marte.

Good job, Indians. Check out this list of young, cheap, good players: Hafner, Martinez, Peralta, Sizemore, Marte, Cliff Lee, Sabathia, and some good bullpen arms. Now that's a young team to build around.

After agreeing to contracts with Everett, Lidge and Wheeler this week, Ensberg's our only remaining arbiration case. From what I've heard, the numbers aren't too far off: Ensberg wants $4.2 million, $800K more than the Astros' offer.

Ensberg's already 30, but won't be a FA until after the 2008 season. A long-term deal would be nice: avoiding arbitration for the next three years if nothing else. At this point, I think we'd have to give him $18-$20 million for a three-year deal, which is right around what he'd make in arbitration if he keeps hitting well. Hopefully Mo has turned a corner in his career, and we'll be abe to count on a .900 OPS for the next couple years.

The whole arbitration system is really funky. It rewards playing time over good performance, so players who suck but have been in the majors a while will end up getting more money than better players with little experience. This is clearly a benefit to teams that draft well. Oakland's strategy has been to continually bring in younger and cheaper players while letting their more expensive veterans hit paydirt with other teams. If you always have decent replacements waiting in the wings, why risk a blockbuster deal with a guy who might get injured or just start to suck? I bet Beane's kicking himself for the Chavez deal a couple years ago.

The Astros are on the other end of the spectrum. We tend to wait several years to call up good hitters. Ensberg and Lane were both ready for the majors years before they finally got their starting jobs. By the time those players are ready to test free agencym they'll be pretty old. Ensberg will be 33 after 2008, when he'll be a FA. Lane will also be 33 when he's a FA after 2009. If they continue to dominate, they'll cost teams gobs of money for what probably will be the decline of their careers. Problem is, that team could be us. We tend to "stick to our guns" and "reward our veterans" all the time, and I can see us doing this with these players. Of course, if they dominate in those years, I'll be happy. And this so-called "problem" won't really affect us for several years.

Back to the present: I really wonder if the Astros have any more plans in the mix. The FA list is running thin; only a handful of players even perk my interest: Durazo, Ward, Chris Stynes, Jose Hernandez, Wade Miller, Astacio, Fogg, Weaver, Kevin Brown, Ismael Valdez, Halama, Quantrill, Fox, Mecir, Urbina. Hard to believe there are still well over 100 FAs out there, nearly all of whom will sign with teams.

Like many others, I don't like the prospect of having Backe-Wandy-Zeke at the end of our rotation. I can already foresee a bunch of three-game sweeps going the wrong way. Zeke and Wandy have potential, but that doesn't always translate to actual performace, which is all that really matters. Zeke (5.67, 1.54) and Wandy (5.53, 1.46) were far from good last year. They're young (Wandy just celebrated his 27th birthday on Jan. 18; Zeke will turn 27 in November), but in no way are they solid, reliable pitchers yet.

Aside from Boras' Jeff Weaver, the remaining FA starters are either old, injury-prone or just plain bad. Still, there's some talent left in the pool, and we almost need to sign someone. Valdez and Halama are journeymen who can put up mediocre numbers (4.50 to 5.00 ERA, 1.40 to 1.50 WHIP) and eat innings. Kevin Brown's back may be broken, but he'd make a worthwhile risk if the price is right.

On the position player front, I think we're pretty much set. If we enter Spring Training with our current roster, it looks like Scott and Quintero would start the year at Round Rock. Bruntlett, who's not a very good hitter, seems to be a lock for the utility-man role.

Bagwell's shoulder is still a mystery, but there's no way he won't be on our Opening Day roster. If he says he can play first base, how about playing him there only three or four days a week? Give him an entire day off between starts. That way, Taveras still gets plenty of playing time. Or, take Bagwell out of the game at the seventh inning. Get Taveras in there for his defense and you rest Bagwell for a while.

OK, dinner time.

Go read this Baseball Prospectus article now - it's free, and it's about the Astros. They've done some neat things with analyzing not only which baseball parks are good for hitters and which parks are good for pitchers but separating that out into if parks that are good for hitters are especially good for right-handed hitters or lefties and the same for pitchers. They've found (as you would expect) that The Juice Box is incredibly good for righty hitters (check out Ensberg and Biggio's home / away splits sometime) but average for lefty hitters.

This makes the Preston Wilson signing even better, and it makes Jeff Weaver an interesting option - he dominates righties, but struggles against lefties. Read the article for more.

Arbitration Time

The Astros agreed to a bunch of deals with arbitration-eligible players today:

Adam Everett - Astros agreed to terms with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year, $1.9 million contract.

I don't think much of Adam Everett, but this is a fairly cheap one-year deal, and we have no better options at SS unless we trade for one or we decide Chris Burke can play SS after all.


Brad Lidge - Astros agreed to terms with RHP Brad Lidge on a one-year, $3.975 million contract.

This is a sweet deal. Lidge has been unstoppable the last three years, and while he is an injury risk, his strikeout rate is unstoppable and he's still fairly young.


Dan Wheeler - Astros agreed to terms with RHP Dan Wheeler on a one-year, $930,000 contract. And this is the best contract of all. 930K for a guy that had a 2.21 ERA in 73 innings last year? Damn good!

So all in all, good job, Astros. Now if we can take care of business with Ensberg (a multi-year deal would be sweet), we're looking good.

Astros Notes

1) Well, this is ironic:

"Jeff Bagwell was supposed to have his surgically repaired right shoulder examined by Dr. James Andrews this week, but Andrews suffered a heart attack over the weekend."

There's still plenty of time left before spring training, but at this point it just doesn't seem like we're going to have a healthy Bagwell in '06. No one from the organization is saying positive things, Bagwell has been quiet, we signed a free agent outfielder which would allow Berkman to move to 1B...and when your doctors start having heart attacks, maybe it's just not your year. I'd love to be wrong, but at this point, I don't think Jeff Bagwell will be our starting 1B in 2006.

2) Like Andy, I'm not particularly impressed by Trever Miller either. When one of the best things you can say about a guy is that he's "better than Mike Gallo", look out. I guess Miller isn't terrible (career 4.66 ERA, although he's been better than that the last 3 years - check out his career numbers here). Someone on Astros Daily mentioned: Miller isn't a pure situational lefty, but he's moreso than Gallo... he carries a .724 lefty-on-lefty OPS over the last 3 years, whereas Gallo is at .790. Anyway, here are the contract specifics:

"Trever Miller's $1.3 million option for 2007 will vest if he makes 50 appearances this season
Miller, who is guaranteed $1.3 million in 2006 under the terms of the deal signed yesterday, has made at least 60 appearances each of the last three years, so all he needs to do is stay healthy in order to have the option kick in."

So make that a probable 2 year / 2.6 million dollar deal, which isn't so good. Just to recap, we've now spent 1.7+1.9+2.6+7.5=13.7 million combined on Mike Lamb, Orlando Palmeiro, Brad Ausmus, and Trever Miller, four average-to-below average-players who are all on the wrong side of 30 years old.

Here's what our GM had to say:

"He's a high character type of person, which is obviously something that's very important to us," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said of Miller. "But No. 1 is his ability on the mound. We've been looking for a lefty reliever to come in and help stabilize our bullpen and give us another option in the bullpen on the left side with Mike Gallo. It gives Phil a lot of versatility. I talked to Phil (Sunday) night. He was really pleased to have another lefty on board that can give him the ability to use maybe one lefty earlier in the game and another lefty later in the game. Really, since Phil and I started working together, this has been his goal. His goal is to get two lefties in the bullpen, and I think this accomplishes that. It gives us that versatility."

Ugh. Miller AND Gallo in the same bullpen, when we could have Nieve or Bucholz or some younger guy with potential? I don't care if they're both left-handed; they're both below-average. AND WHY IS CHARACTER SO IMPORTANT TO THE ASTROS?? Expect to see a lot of one-batter-faced outings for Gallo and Miller, a fair amount of which will end up badly for the Astros.

3) We'll end on a happy note:

The National League champion Astros were the team closest to landing Miguel Tejada, FOXSports.com has learned, offering closer Brad Lidge, shortstop Adam Everett and either outfielder Jason Lane or Willy Taveras.

That would have been a great trade, especially if Taveras was the 3rd player. Lidge is a dominant closer, but he is unlikely to stay healthy for much longer, and both Qualls and Wheeler should be able to close. Adam Everett should not be starting in the majors, and Taveras will never have higher trade value. To combine those three into four years of Miguel Tejada, who gives you excellent offense, solid defense, and no injury risk at a premium position, would have been incredible. I'm still hoping we could revisit those trade talks, because Tejada is a stud.

4) One more piece of good news:

The Astros offered a minor-league contract to former Pirates catching prospect J.R. House.

Anytime we try to sign a catching prospect, it's a good thing, but House was an offensive star in the minors (most recently, he put up an 852 OPS in AAA in 2004), and he's still only 26. Check out his career stats in the minors here. He probably wouldn't get much playing time for a few years, but House was one of the Pirates' top prospects, and it appears he's mostly recovered from shoulder surgery. I like this move.

I'm not excited about Trever Miller. Yes, he's a lefty, and yes, he's slightly better than Mike Gallo. But that doesn't make him good. I've heard Purpura bellyachin' about getting a lefty reliever since the week after the World Series, and this is the best he could come up with? Meanwhile, Mike Remlinger and Alan Embree are still available. Plus our short-term financial situation (i.e. signing Rocket in May) is now stretched even thinner. Not an über-bad move, but not great.

I am excited about Preston Wilson. Like Richard Justice wrote in his blog, he's a good player. Don't try to analyze where he'll play and who will lose playing time, just take comfort in the fact that he's a good player who will hit lots of home runs and drive in plenty of runs. We needed that.

Of course, it's up to Jack and me to discuss how this might affect the team in terms of playing time and possible trades. Right now, Luke Scott's the odd man out. With Wilson, Taveras, Lane, Berkman and Palmeiro as our outfielders and Bagwell, Biggio, Everett, Ensberg, Ausmus, Lamb, Burke, Chavez and Bruntlett as our infielders, there's just no room for the big lefty. He could use more time as a regular, even if it is in the minors.

Of course, as with everything in 2006, everything rests on Bagwell's shoulder. If he can't play first base, Berkman moves there, leaving Wilson, Taveras and Lane as our outfielders. Easy.

If Bagwell recovers to the point where he can play first base, Berkman moves back to left field. Lane's name should be etched in stone over in right field, which leaves centerfield as something of a quagmire. Wilson's not known as a great defensive centerfielder (and with the crazy nooks and crannnies of The Juicebox, his lack of speed may kill us), but I'll take his offensive skills over Taveras's in a heartbeat. Remember, despite his decent .291 average, Taveras's .666 OPS was worse than Ausmus's .682 and better only than Everett's .654 mark. While Taveras has tremendous base-stealing skills, defensive ability and speed, the flaws in his game — power — make him replaceable. (He still has potential at 24, but I can't see him putting up anything better than a .300 / .350 / .350 line anytime soon.)

Now then, keeping Taveras as a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-runner would be a great idea. He could pinch-hit when leading off an inning, too. Willy would excel in that role. However, his apparent value might make him attractive to some clubs. I'm sure other teams know his flaws as well as his upsides (including five more years of club control at a cheap cost). Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh all seem like logical trading partners. None has an established centerfielder or leadoff hitter. And all those clubs could provide us with something valuable.

Boston has a plethora of starting pitchers in Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Arroyo, Clement and Wells. I've heard Wells and Arroyo among many trade rumors, and I think either would fit well as our 3rd starter. The Sox are still hoping for Seattle's Jeremy Reed, but we ought to offer Taveras for Arroyo, who doesn't come with Wells' hefty contract.

Pittsburgh has Burnitz, Bay, Wilson and Gerut in the outfield, but I don't think Bay is very well-suited to play centerfield, although I could be wrong about this. That kid is really good. Pittsburgh doesn't have a leadoff man (Jack Wilson probably won't cut it), and I've heard they're taking offers for Wilson. I'd trade Taveras for some young pitching talent like Zach Duke or Oliver Perez. Houston native Kip Wells hasn't been good since '03, but you never know.

The Nationals have Guillen, Church and Byrd, but the latter two would be more effective as platoon partners than starters. They may convince Soriano to move to left field, but that probably won't happen. And unless they plan on batting Soriano first, they will need a leadoff man. (Oh wait, they have Christian Guzman… nevermind). I doubt the Nats will be willing to give up a big name like John Patterson, but wouldn't that be something…

The Angels and Diamondbacks could also fit the bill for a Taveras deal, but they're not as likely. The Angels gave away Finley and cut DaVannon, so their only full-time outfielders are Anderson, Guerrero and Rivera. Figgins could start in center for them, and Taveras and Figgins on the same team would be overkill. Arizona signed Eric Byrnes, who's decent. They also have Counsell leading off, but they might want to upgrade. They won't give up their best prospect, Conor Jackson, but Brad Halsey is a low-walk, low-strikeout lefty who put up decent numbers as a 24-year-old. He's from Houston and went to UT, and could compete for a starting job.

Phew. Of all these deals, I'd pursue the Boston trade. It seems like they're striking out with Reed, and they are running out of options. Pretty soon, Taveras will become very attractive to them.

Again, I'm not saying we must trade Taveras. I think given our outfield situation, Taveras is most expendable and has the highest value right now. Of course, we don't really know about Bagwell's shoulder, but if he can play, we'll have a crowded outfield. Even if we trade Taveras and Bagwell gets hurt, a Scott/Burke/Lamb platoon would be productive, much more so than last year. (Keep in mind Scott and Burke can both play center). Yes, Biggio is losing his on-base skills, but I'd be satisfied with him leading off in 2006.

Astros GM Tim Purpura was on the radio today, and while I couldn't listen, a few other people did, and here's what they said that he said:

So far Purp has said..........1) P Wilson can play all OF positions, which is nice.---In fact just a second ago, Purp mentioned that fans were demanding, "when are we going to get a bat? when are we going to get a bat?"2) If Bagwell and Clemens both play, they could be considered our "big free agent acquisitions"3) Purp said that competition is healthy in Spring Training, and that there will be competition for the 5th starter slot, and possibly the 4th. The obvious----that he believes in player development and did not want to go after a Kevin Millwood type.

Is it even possible for a center fielder to be 'unable' to play a corner outfield position? Good news, I guess. Bagwell cannot be considered a 'big free agent acquisition'. There are simply too many question marks. Clemens can, though, and it might work out to our benefit for him to take a month off - he wore down at the end of last year, and this should allow him to stay healthy and it will give our young guys (Zeke, Wandy, Carlos Hernandez) a chance to compete for that #5 spot.

He also said that the future is bright, because a lot of $$$$$$ will be freed next year to put a team together.

That's true - Pettitte, Bagwell, Oswalt, and Biggio come off the books. We're likely (at least I hope so) to re-sign Oswalt, and we'll have some money to go after a starting pitcher / sign Ensberg to a longer deal / etc. WHY did we have to give Ausmus a two-year deal? Argh.

I'm back from my Texas / Oregon vacation, during which I learned how to ski, got pretty sick, and watched a lot of bowl games. The only real move the Astros made was the Preston Wilson signing. The signing specifics are still kind of confusing, but here's what I understand:

2006 - Preston Wilson makes 4 million.
2007 - The Astros either buy out his contract for 500K or we sign him for '07, '08, and '09 for 24 million dollars total.

It's an interesting deal. You could argue this gives Wilson more incentive to do well this year, since if he dominates we'll have to pay him big bucks for him to stay. However, if he doesn't, it's basically just a 1 year / 4.5 million dollar deal. Compare that to the 1 year / 6.7 million dollar deal Jeromy Burntiz got and I am one happy fan. You can argue that Wilson will have no where to play, but with Bagwell so iffy, the more options you have, the better. Remember our LF platoon of Scott / Burke / Lamb last year? Yuck.

I was looking at Wilson's stats, hoping that he might hit well with runners in scoring position, since he will likely bat after Berkman and Ensberg, our OBP guys. Unfortunately, he doesn't:

Career, bases empty: .269 / .335 / .495
Career, RISP: .250 / .335 / .453

Oh well, it was a nice thought.

We're in a similar situation to where we were last year - it certainly looks like Taveras, Ausmus, and Everett will all start, and combined with the pitcher, that gives us four lineup spots that will likely have an OPS below 700. No matter how good the rest of your lineup is (and ours ain't bad, with Biggio / Berkman / Ensberg / Wilson / Lane), you're going to have a below-average offense with those four spots.

Something to Talk About

Hey, we made a move! The Astros signed Preston Wilson to a 1 year / 4 million dollar deal today, with a CLUB option for a 3 year deal after this year. That's a weird option; I can't see us picking up a 3-year option unless Wilson goes insane.

I'm actually all right with this move. First of all, let's take a look at Wilson's numbers:

Career line - .264 / .333 / .478

Last year - .260 / .325 / .467 (half in Colorado, half in Washington, and he somehow managed to put up near-identical lines)

So basically he's a low-average, low-OBP, high-SLG guy. He'll be 31 years old, so he's not getting any better, but he shouldn't collapse either. Wilson has played most of his career in CF, but he had a knee injury last year, and most sources suggest that he will not be playing CF again anytime soon. He has 67 AB's at Minute Maid Park, and his numbers are pretty sweet: 940 OPS, 9 extra base hits, 7 walks (very small sample size, though).

It's a little misleading to judge Wilson by OPS alone: unfortunately, it overvalues him, because Wilson's OPS is more SLG-heavy than OBP-heavy, and OBP is more important.

It's probably best to compare this signing to similar deals given to comparable players this offseason:

Reggie Sanders - 2 years / 10 million
Jacque Jones - 3 / 16
Jeromy Burnitz - around 1 year / 6
Rondell White - 2 / 8.5

Wilson is younger than Sanders and Burnitz, healthier than White, and...well, I would have rather had Jones, but ours is only a 1-year deal.

I'm going to wait a day or two to put up some more analysis, but for now, I like it. It's hard to analyze this move until we see if it brings about another move (trade Taveras? Lane?) or if it means Bagwell is done. But for now, good job, Purpura.

I can't help but be amused by this quote:

In the press conference Purpura said that Preston Wilson called him and said he wanted to play for Houston. This is a good sign.

and this guy's response:

What this tells me is our GM is waiting for players to call him while he sits around eating donuts.

We signed a bunch of players to minor league deals before Christmas, none of whom should have much of an impact next year:

Steve Sparks is a 40-year-old knuckleballer who hasn't been in the majors in a while. Didn't we learn our lesson with Jared Fernandez?

David Borkowski had a 4.34 ERA in a full season of Triple A last season. Meh.

Eric Munson and Mike Lamb are nearly identical players: lefty hit-or-miss "power" batters.

Kevin Orie had a very good season in Triple A last year (.352/.466/.630 in 349 AB), but probably won't have a spot on the bench.

Danny Klassen, who was with Round Rock last season, batted .319/.375/.532 in 342 AB. I think he can play other infield positions, so he might be an option as our 25th man.

So, two worthless starters and three third basemen. We're gonna need something more, Timmy.

Meanwhile, Brett Tomko signed with the Dodgers for two years and $8.7 million. Yikes. That is a little more than I'm willing to pay for a fifth starter. Yes, he's durable and eats innings, but come one… $8.7 million? I just hope Timmy at least inquired about him.

Jason Johnson was close to signing with the Indians on a one-year deal, but it looks like it's not finalized. If we could snag him for a good price, it's worth it for a one-year deal.

Jeff Weaver's still out there. Not much talk about him, but I'm sure he'll get $40 million from somebody. If Jarrod Washburn gets $37.5 from the Mariners...

We tendered contracts to all our arbitration-eligible players, including Raul Chavez. Everyone else (Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, Wheeler) was a no-brainer. Chavez could have been released, but instead we gave him $400,000. Hey, it's not my money. Humberto Quintero underwent wrist surgery a few days ago, which will keep him out about six weeks. I guess we want Q to spend another year in AAA.

Jack and I said right after the World Series that this team must upgrade offensively at shortop or catcher. With Ausmus sticking around the next two years, we're left with the shortstop question. I wonder if the Orioles would consider trading Tejada for Lane, Lidge and Nieve. They'd get an everyday outfielder with 30-homer potential, a proven closer and a top prospect. We'd get Tejada for $48 million over the next four years, a bargain.

Tejada is definitely one of the most valuable players in the game. He plays terrific defense and is a tremendous middle-of-the-lineup hitter. It would suck to give up Lane and Lidge, but I think it would be worth it. Besides, trading Lane would open up more playing time for Burke and Scott in left field. Lidge is a damn good closer, but with his health risks, we'd be smart to trade him while his value is high. Qualls and Wheeler would have first dibs at the closing vacancy, or we could pursue a free agent, say, Ugueth Urbina to help us out.

No Nomar, which isn't the end of the world.

Surprisingly enough, I don't think there are any free agent hitters I'd like to sign at this point. There are no worthwhile shortstops out there, and that's our only position in need of an offensive upgrade. At this point, I don't think we could improve our Opening Day lineup of: Taveras, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Bagwell, Lane, Everett, Ausmus. I don't think it's necessary to sign a 1B/LF type hitter, because he wouldn't come close to playing full-time. Even if Bagwell gets hurt, someone between Scott, Burke and Lamb is bound to have a decent year as a back-up. Plus, Purpura can always make a midseason trade for Dunn, Lugo, Huff etc. And at that point, we'll have more of an idea where Bagwell's shoulder is.

On the other hand, Purpura needs to be looking at free agent starters. There are plenty of decent pitchers out there, and that's all we'd need — someone decent. Someone like Brett Tomko or Jason Johnson, who is at least established as someone you can count on for six innings and a sub-5.00 ERA. Hopefully. With Only Oswalt, Pettitte and Backe (and probably Zeke) penciled in our rotation, we need a 3rd or 4th starter. I wouldn't mind signing a multi-year deal either.

I'm pretty sure we've been saying the same things over and over since October.

I guess it's time I gave my opinion on the Brad Ausmus signing. Forget all the numbers for a moment. Well, every number but one: 37. That's how old Ausmus will be one week into the 2006 season. Off the top of your head, how many catchers can you think of that were still productive at that age? Carlton Fisk......oops. That's it. So what does that tell you? CATCHERS DON'T AGE WELL. Yap all you want to about how Ausmus is great defensively, or 'calls a good game', or has great rapport with the umpires. I can quote stat after stat about how bad Ausmus is offensively. Let's call the two even. But the one thing neither side can deny is we just gave 7.5 million to a 37 year old catcher. And that is simply stupid.

Supposedly we're one of the finalists for the Nomar sweepstakes. Generally speaking, I think this is a good thing - Nomar is coming off a down year (and he still put up a 772 OPS when he played), so he won't break the bank, and all reports have him looking for a 1 year deal (for around 6-8 million), which is fine by me. However, I would much prefer seeing Nomar at SS than at LF. A Luke Scott / Chris Burke platoon (and that assumes Berkman would be at 1B because Bagwell can't play) could certainly put up a 750 OPS for a lot cheaper than Nomar will cost. However, Nomar would be a big upgrade at SS over Adam Everett. I don't think we should just move Everett, though - Nomar will definitely need the occasional day off. Everett would make a great defensive replacement and pinch-runner, too.

Oh yeah, Rondell White. I actually like him a lot - unfortunately, I just don't see where we can play him. Lance Berkman and Jason Lane aren't going anywhere - if Bagwell can throw, he'll be at 1B (occasionally spelled by Berkman / Lamb), and if he can't...well, then we could sign White, but we just don't know. White has played in some tough pitcher's parks throughout his career (his road OPS is a solid 842) and he's consistently hit lefties well (888 OPS). And from what I've seen of him, he looks to be a pretty dead pull hitter. He'd like that short LF porch. I think he could help the Astros - but where do we put him? So much is resting on Bagwell's shoulder. I think we have to assume he'll be the Astros starting 1B in '06 until we hear otherwise.

Jon Garland for 2 pitching prospects, eh? Andy weighed in on this earlier, so I'll keep it short: I'd be interested, as long as we don't have to sell the farm. Garland had a great year; part of that was the incredible White Sox defense, though. Podsednik, Crede, Uribe, and Rowand are all well above-average defensively. I think Garland might regress a little bit next year simply because his last year was so much better than his previous career stats. However, he is still very young, and his most comparable player at his age was Brad Radke, which sounds good to me. He'll make at least 5 million in arbitration this year, though, so it would be a moderately expensive one year rental. Still, we're going to need another starter from somewhere. And I can only recommend Jason Johnson so many times.

Well, we're still waiting for Nomar to make a decision, and it won't happen 'til at least this weekend. There's a rumor floating around that the Astros will trade two pitching prospects for Jon Garland of the White Sox.

After trading for Javier Vazquez, the White Sox have a plethora of pitchers — Beurhle, Contreras, Garcia, Garland and Brandon McCarthy, who they'd like to work into the rotation full-time. Contreras and Garland will be free agents after 2006, so they will most likely deal one of them.

Garland was incredibly good for the Sox last year, posting career highs in ERA (3.50), WHIP (1.17), wins (18), IP (221) , strikeouts (115) and shutouts (3). He came out of the gates on fire, winning his first eight starts and 12 of his first 14. He faded a bit in August, but picked it back up in September and got some deserved Cy Young votes.

Garland's superb sinker makes him an extreme ground-ball pitcher; his career ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is 1.33. He is still prone to giving up the long ball (26 is '05, 34 in '04), and still doesn't strike anybody out: His K-rate has declined in each of the past four years. He definitely benefited from having a superb infield behind him to gobble up ground balls. Garland's control really clicked last year. He walked only 47 batters in 221 innings. That 1.91 BB/9 rate was well below his career 3.35 mark. The big question is, can he keep it up? Was 2005 a fluke, or the new norm? Will he fall back down to Earth, or will he keep improving?

One thing you can count on: He'll likely stay healthy. You can't say enough about a guy who's started 131 games the past four years. And he'll obviously benefit from moving to the NL. Plus, he'll have Brad Ausmus, who's from Dartmouth, so he has his PhD: Pitcher-Helping Degree. More like Puny-Hitting Degree.

In short, Garland would be a very good improvement for us, especially now that Clemens is somewhat out of the picture. I think we could expect Garland to post another 3.50 ERA if he comes to Houston. The problems are: 1) We'd only have him for one year, 2) He'll probably make $6-$7 million in arbitration, and 3) We'd have to trade a couple of top prospects to get him.

So is it worth it to trade away two of: Wandy/Zeke/Nieve/Hirsh/Buchholz/Patton for one year of Garland? It depends on who we give up, but this might not be such a bad move. It's always risky to trade away top prospects, but as Jack has quoted, "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Or something like that. The point is, you just never know with young pitchers.

The point is, a rotation of Oswalt/Pettitte/Garland/Backe/Zeke would be great, and, if everyone stays healthy, could be among the best in baseball. Garland could never replace Clemens, but if we improve the team offensively, he may not have to. With Bagwell back and Lane, Taveras and Burke all improving, we might have enough bats to complement our fantastic rotation.

If this trade is indeed on the table, I urge Purpura to pursue it. Try to sell the Sox on Buchholz and Wandy, but try to get the deal done at any price. It's never good to make a move just for the sake of making a move, but it's getting damn near that point. Purp, you gota do something!

The more I think about Rondell White, the less I like him. We already have Berkman, Lane, Taveras, Palmeiro, Burke and Scott (whose status on the ML team should be all but cemented). Berkman and Burke will play occasionally in the infield, but those six are a very good outfield as it stands. White would significantly decrease playing time for Scott and Burke, and his potential talent isn't much of an upgrade.

Jack recommends we try Burke at shortstop: I really support this idea. Burke may have a breakout year in '06: I think it's important to find ABs for him.

The big question is: What will we do with Adam Everett? I've heard his name in trade rumors (to the Braves, of all teams … won't happen now that they have Renteria … ) Can you think of a team who would even consider him at short? Maybe the Mets, since they're always trying to catch up on defense. Maybe some suckers like the Royals or Twins. I'm sure the Red Sox would love to have him back, but only as a late-inning defensive replacement which, unfortunately for him, is where I see his career heading.) Defense is great — and vital for his position — but one must be able to hit to stay in the league, and AE has not shown ability to succeed in this endeavor.

If we trade him, I hope we have another playe who could fill in at short, someone besides Burke and Bruntlett. I would support Timmy if he signed Nomar with the intention of trading AE for a reliever or decent minor league starter. That way, Nomar, Burke or Bruntlett could all play short, and Ausmus would be the only "hole" in our lineup. Check this out:

CF Taveras - SS Burke - LF Berkman - 3B Ensberg - 1B Bagwell - RF Lane - 2B Biggio - C Ausmus. Or:

CF Taveras - 2B Biggio - LF Berkman - 3B Ensberg - SS Nomar - 1B Bagwell - RF Lane - C Ausmus.

If we somehow eliminate AE from our lineup, the Ausmus deal suddenly looks less horrific.

It has come to my attention that Jason LaRue, who's a free agent after 2006, will not be in an Astros uniform anytime soon. This sucks … I was hoping we'd get him for the second half of his peak years.

Oh, Nomar…

Ron-DL White visited with the Astros in Houston a couple days ago. His career parallels Austin Kearns': Very good when healthy, but somehow manages to miss 50 games a year. His career .815 OPS would be a great addition to our offensively-challenged club, but Rondell has averaged 115 games a year since becoming a regular for Montreal in 1995.

Plus, I can't see how we can sign a big-name free agent (even as big as Rondell White). With Bagwell at first, we'd have nowhere to put him. Bagwell's not going to take a seat for anyone while he's healthy, so it's not worth it to commit money to a first baseman or an outfielder if we can't find him at-bats.

The problem we've had for the last four years is the absolute black hole at the bottom of our lineup. Everyone says we need to add another bat, but Rondell White or Adam Dunn or Brian Giles would not have changed Ausmus-Everett-pitcher as our 7-8-9 hitters. Taveras, Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg, Bagwell and Lane make a very good lineup. Acquiring Rondell White or even Dunn would replace one of these hitters, not Everett or Ausmus.

Which is why we should sign Nomar. He's willing to play anywhere, but I think he can still play short. It's been over six months since he tore his groin, so that should be all nice and healed by now. Sure, he wouldn't be a fantastic defender, but he'd make up for it with the bat. And if Garner's smart, he'd play Everett for Pettitte's starts.

From what I've heard and read, we are still talking with him. I think I saw the Yankees offer him $4 million for one year, which is ridiculous. Get 'im, Tim!

Isn't it a bit silly the way team reporters skew stats and words to try and make everything sound good? Some excerpts from Jim Molony's article on the Ausmus and Lamb signings (and my expert analysis):

"[Ausmus] led all NL catchers in the second half with 55 hits." (He was good in the second half, but by no means the best catcher in the NL.)

"Ausmus [is] the only Gold Glove catcher in Astros franchise history … He is also the Houston franchise leader in games caught with 914." (So what? Games Played is not a significant stat. As for the Gold Gloves, they're nice, but I'd rather see some doubles.)

"Over 13 big-league seasons … Ausmus has hit .255 with 71 homers and 508 RBIs. (Yes, but he's 37 already, and can only get worse. He's never posted double digits in homers, and has no more than six in one season for the Astros. His career high in RBI is 54.)

"[Lamb has] been one of the Astros' best clutch hitters." (Lamb actually surprised me here: He put up a .912 OPS w/RISP. But molony never mentions his sub-.300 OBP.)

"He played in 125 games and started at five different positions…' (Molony includes DH as a "position." And is playing 125 games a good thing? with lamb's defense, absolutely not!)

"Lamb hit a career-high five triples and recorded 13 doubles. he walked 22 times while striking out 65 times in 322 at-bats." (Again, I don't know if Molony's trying to inspire confidence with these numbers. Walking 22 times in 322 ABS? And who cares about the triples? Urg.)

You see my point. I know these guys are more PR people than actual journalists, but come on! Show a little analytical thought: these guys are not good at the plate.