Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Some buzz about Miguel Tejada lately. There's been buzz before, and I think both teams' managements were inches away from a deal last off-season, but it didn't get done. I wanted it then, and I want it now. Here's why:

1) Tejada is awesome. He leads the Orioles in AVG, HR, RBI and R (.323/18/69/68). He is superb defensively, and supposedly is a great team leader in the dugout. Remember his days with the A's, when he'd be on the front row of the dugout, waving his teammates home and cheering like mad? We could use some of that. He won the 2002 MVP with his heart. Plus clutch hitting during Oakland's 20-game winning streak.

2) Adam Everett is the bane of my existence.

3) The trade pieces — specifically the prospects — aren't necessarily All-stars. Yes, it is very nice to have a plethora of talent in the farm system, but sometimes they don't pan out. Hunter Pence looks awesome right now, but it's not a sure thing that he'll slug in the majors, which Tejada has proven he can do. We have a ton of pitching prospects, so giving up one of: Nieve, Albers, Patton, Hirsh won't hurt us too bad. Don't know why they'd want Lidge (although he'd do well working with Mazzone there), but he is expendable.

4) The NL is just waiting for another team to emerge. The Mets are very good, and the Cardinals have Pujols and Carpenter. Thankfully, two other teams get into the playoffs, and we should realize how close we are from making it there. We're only 5 games out of the Wild Card, with a big series this week against the WC-leading Reds. If we win 2 of 3 against Cincy, and 2 of 3 against the D-Backs at home, we're 3 games under .500 and probably only 3 or 4 back of the Wild Card.

5) Here's why: 2B Biggio, CF Burke, RF Berkman, SS Tejada, LF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Ausmus. Holy crap.

Monday, July 24, 2006

It's been a wild few weeks for me - I got back from an ultimate frisbee tourney in Chicago and a family vacation to the Galapagos a few days ago, and immediately found out I got a job and that an apartment that I had been looking at for a while was available. So today I went to NAU, chose an office, moved out of my place, filled out the application for the new place, and packed for a river trip that I leave on tomorrow. Whew. Let's talk some baseball:

First of all, the Aubrey Huff trade.

Astros get: 3B/1B/OF Aubrey Huff
Devil Rays get: SS Ben Zobrist, P Mitch Talbot

Big surprise here: I agree with Andy's earlier thoughts on the trade. Unfortunately, Huff can't replace Ausmus or Everett in the lineup. But he's a solid player, who has traditionally been better in the 2nd half, and the Astros are built (at least for this year) as a team that needs to go all out for the playoffs. Zobrist is a nice prospect, a SS who actually gets on base, but he hasn't shown too much power and management seems to love Adam Everett. Talbot isn't a big loss, with our pitching depth (more on that later). All in all, I like the trade. Huff is off to a slow start so far (.243 / .333 / .378), but give him a little time.

My only concern about the trade (and it's a fairly big one) is that we even think about trading Morgan Ensberg or cutting his playing time once he's off the DL. I know Ensberg is slumping, and he is 30 years old, so he's probably not going to improve, and he's streaky....but he has a career 864 OPS, including a 961 OPS at the Juice Box! He's also relatively cheap, solid defensively, and is absolutely the 2nd best offensive player on the team, and has been better than Berkman for fairly long stretches of time both last year and this year. He's also drawing walks like an absolute maching this year, so once he reverts back to his career batting average of .272, you're looking at an easy .400 OBP. In short, Ensberg is really, really good, and we should try to build the team around him, Berkman, and Oswalt for the next 2-4 years. If we trade him for Scott Linebrink, we suck.

A bunch of Rotoworld rumors involving the Astros lately:

We're interested in left-handed reliever Damaso Marte. Wow, what a surprise, we're looking for a lefty. What, John Franco, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller, and Wandy Rodriguez aren't good enough? Marte is actually pretty good, but he walks a lot of guys and Miller has actually been pretty decent this year at times, so I say just stick with him.

We're shopping Willy Taveras. Sweet! It's pretty apparent that he's not part of our long-term plans, which is fine, so we might as well try to deal him while teams remember his 2nd-place Rookie of the Year finish last year. Taveras isn't that bad - he's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and has shown the occasional ability to get on base. He'd make a fine 5th outfielder, but if we can get value in a trade, do it.

We might be shopping Preston Wilson (to the Yankees, who really need OF help). I like it a lot. Wilson is overrated, and we're certainly not going to sign him after this year (I hope), and with Berkman, Huff, Luke Scott, Jason Lane (at some point) all able to play corner OF, we should be ok there.

Like I said, the 2006 Astros are basically built for one last push: Pettitte and Clemens are probably gone next year, Biggio should start playing less once he gets to 3K hits, and a lot of our younger guys (Burke, Hirsh, Nieve) should start seeing a lot more playing time. Hell, Oswalt isn't even signed for next year - what would our rotation be without him? Yikes. But here's the trick - we're 9.5 back in the division and 5 back in the wild card, with 6 teams ahead of us. I know we've pulled this off in the past, but if something goes wrong (like Berkman injuring his groin yesterday), we shouldn't be afraid to have a fire sale and trade the vets. As much as I'd like to see this team make the playoffs, it's not too likely at this point.

Ok, I've gotta run, and I'll be out for a few weeks, but when I finally get back I promise to write more regularly and more interesting stuff. Later.

Friday, July 14, 2006

Howdy everyone. I actually didn't watch the Home-Run Derby OR the All-Star Game. Frankly, I needed a break from baseball as much as the players did. Too many fantasy teams (once again), and too many crummy Astros defeats have left me somewhat burned on this whole national pasttime thing. But a few days off, and a few interesting moves by the Astros have gotten me right back into the swing of things. Here we go:

As Barstool pointed out, the Astros made several moves to try and revitalize the offense. First, we traded Ben Zobrist and Mitch Tablot (two decent prospects) to the Devil Rays for Aubrey Huff and cash. This is a great trade for us. Yes, Huff is in his last year before free agency, and he hasn't lived up to his 2003-04 potential over the last year and a half. But he has smacked the crap out of the ball recently, hitting 3 HR in his last 5 games (the latest was a 3-run shot to give the Astros a 5-1 win over the Marlins). So hopefully, he's found his swing and can put up a .850 OPS.

Huff is, if nothing else, a very good hitter, which is exactly what we need. Like Richard Justice said when we signed Preston Wilson: Forget where he's going to play or who he's going to take at-bats from, just having him on the team is a very good thing. Unfortunately, he doesn't replace Everett or Ausmus at the end of the lineup, but we'll get to that later.

Lane was optioned to Round Rock to make room for Huff. Like last year, Lane went through an extended slump, but he just never seemed to rebound from it. Just about every time I saw him at the plate or on the bases, he seemed to make dumb mental mistakes. He's not as bad as he is right now, but at 29, his time with the Astros might be coming to a close.

Ensberg to the DL. This move is about a month late. Ensberg has very obviously been bothered since he dove for a foul ball and landed awkwardly on his shoulder against Atlanta on June 9. Good timing at least, since Huff will move into the 3B spot full-time for the next two weeks.

Luke Scott was called up to replace Ensberg. I'm not sold on this move. Seems to me we could have just kept Lane in the majors and Scott at AAA and saved a couple of options. But hey, Scott will probably go back down once Ensberg plays again.

Brandon Backe is scheduled to pitch July 22, and it looks like Wandy will be sent to the pen, with Buchholz staying in the #5 spot. This is probably a good move — Wandy was awful in June and his two starts in July were not promising. Wandy has pretty much shown us his potential in the last year, and he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a major-league starter. Buchholz, on the other hand, has potential, and if nothing else, he'll be surrounded by Oswalt, Pettitte and Rocket.

Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte, Backe and Buchholz is a damn fine rotation. The lineup, even with Huff, needs help. The problem, as always, is the bottom of the order. Unless we make even more drastic changes, Ausmus and Everett aren't going anywhere. Here's my proposition: Have Burke start at SS twice a week, have Munson start at C twice a week, and have Wilson make some starts in CF. Burke's offense more than makes up for his lack of defense at short. And obviously, once we get a late lead, we can sub Everett in at SS and Willy T in CF. How's about this lineup?:

2B Biggio, SS Burke, LF Berkman, CF Wilson, RF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Munson

Those are clearly our best hitters. Obviously, this would be a disaster defensively, but we need some freakin' offense.

Clemens vs. the Marlins tonight. Go Rocket.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

As you've probably read in the last post, Jack has split for the Galapagos Islands. He must be so desperate for a job that he's even looking in undeveloped islands for employment. Good luck to you, Jack, we're rooting for you!

Meanwhile, after mentioning Jason Lane in the last post guess what the Astros did? That's right, kids! They sent his under-performing posterior to the minors whilst making a trade for Aubrey Huff who is 30 years old, plays for the mighty Devil Rays, and is the kinda guy whom my mother would take one look at and say, "Eww! He a vitamin deficiency! Es jucky!" I don't know much about baseball but after looking at this trade it actually seems like a steal! We trade away two of our prospects for a 30 year old on the rapid decline and some cash for the Astros organization to spend on pleasing the fans (*cough*cough* free beer! *cough*cough*). After that 1 ER, 9 IP LOSS by the Amazing Oswalt, it's good to see that the 'Stros are going after the big hitters with a lot of upside. Perhaps when Jack comes back from the job hunt in the Galapagos he can enlighten us all as to if this trade was good or bad. I'm guessing it was marvelous cuz we got some fat cash along with a Tamba Bay Devil Ray SUPAHSTAH!!!

Anyone get a load of that World Cup? Or better yet, did anyone see that headbutt in high definition? I watched a clip of it when I was at my parents' house on their 60" SXRD (really good TV, fyi) and you can actually see the dude's chest cave in to the unforgiving onslaught that is Zizou's bald-is-beautiful skull. Did it deserve a red card? Yes. Did it wake us all up from watching exhausted Italians hold the line against Henry the Awesome (remember, it's French so it rhymes) and Ribery the Ugliest Soccer Player in World Cup History? You betcha. Out of 10, I rate this World Cup an 8. My complaints: Horrific refs and the typical American complaint...not enough GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOALS. Speaking of which, what's with ESPN's guys in the booth? I think people would get a little more excited about soccer if the commentators lost their friggin' minds whenever a goal was scored.

Did anyone see that Irish guy on ESPN predict that Italy would win from the beginning? Leave it to the Irish; they know how to rock (U2). Too bad the rest of the analysis on ESPN is looked down upon...

Enough about the winners! How bout them losers? According to my Mexican inside source (Hi Mom!) pretty much the entire country of Mexico knew that their team was going to underachieve. I found it funny, however, that the U.S. performance was touted as an absolute failure. Don't get me wrong! I completely agree! But usually we hear the talking heads say we lost and nobody cares. Perhaps we're finally seeing a change in the attitudes of this nations sports writers? Seriously, how long can those old farts deny the monstrocity that is futbol?! Superbowl is watched by 50 million...World Cup is worshipped by over a billion...yeah, talk about an isolationist attitude.

Bruce Arena blew it. Argue with me if you want, but the guys looked LOST out there that first match. The forwards were never on the same page and I couldn't help but feel that they really had no game plan going into those games. That's what I observed anyways...the rest of you should let us know what you thought about those games (reply, slaves!). And how bout those soccer megastars like David Beckham and Ronaldo saying they would like to play in America when they're done competing in the big boy leagues? Sounds awesome to me....the U.S. will become the Senior PGA of soccer! Where else in the world can so much cash be thrown at so old an athlete? Or at least traded for two minor leaguers....

Thursday, July 06, 2006

I made it back from my river trip - on the day I returned, after de-rigging the boat, I ran off to find a newspaper to see how the Astros had been doing. Their last 10 games: 2-8. Ugh. Then I looked up some box scores and saw how the White Sox and Tigers basically obliterated us. Luckily we ran into the Cubs who are pretty bad right now, although the mighty Sean Marshall managed to shut us out yesterday as Roy Oswalt gave up 1 ER in 9 IP and took the loss.

It looks like Mike Lamb has been hot since I left, as he's been getting the majority of starts at 1B with Lance shifting to RF. I guess I can quit stumping for Jason Lane; it just doesn't look like he's going to get much playing time. Waah. Lamb is hitting .332 / .379 / .533 for the season, so you can't argue with that too much.

Before I go any further, read Aaron Gleeman's wrap-up of the SABR (Society of American Baseball Research) conference right now.

I've been watching the World Cup, which is great. The Germany - Italy semifinal was amazing, the France - Portugal semi not so much. I like Italy to dominate in the finals - their defense (especially their captain, Canavarro, and their goalkeeper, Buffon) is unreal and they should generate enough offense to win. Italy 2-0.

I'm heading out again, to Chicago for an ultimate frisbee tournament and then to the Galapagos Islands on a vacation. Sorry about that, it's summertime. If anyone wants to make a post (JT? Barstool?), I'd owe you one. Until then, take care, cheer for the Astros, and have fun.

Friday, June 23, 2006

Well, Clemens lost to Francisco Liriano, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. Roger had a tough 3rd inning, throwing 30+ pitches, but other than that, I thought he looked fine - just a little rusty. We start a series with the White Sox today, who have won the last 3 games against the Cardinals by scoring 20 runs, 13 runs, and 1 run (on 1 hit!) They're hot. Let's hope we can win a close game or two this time around, as opposed to the World Series last year. I'm going to be on the river for the next week, so Andy, it's all you, buddy.

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Astros Notebook

The big news today is Roger Clemens makes his Astros return against Francisco Liriano (who was 1 year old when Clemens made his first MLB start) and the Twins tonight. Clemens by himself won't automatically make us a great team, but if he can get his good buddy Andy Pettitte back on track, get the fans fired up, and pitches great, that will work.

We're making room for Clemens by optioning Chris Sampson to AAA, moving Fernando Nieve to the bullpen, and keeping Taylor Buccholz as the 5th starter. Garner's reasoning for the Nieve / Buchholz decision is that Nieve is better suited to be a reliever than Buchholz. Perhaps this is because he's a better pitcher in general:

Nieve, 2006: 65 IP, 4.71 ERA, 20 BB / 42 K
Nieve, June 2006: 18 IP, 3.00 ERA

Buchholz, 2006: 77.1 IP, 5.82 ERA, 19 BB / 47 K
Buchholz, June 2006: 19 IP, 6.63 ERA

Buccholz has had some excellent starts in the majors but he's also had some terrible ones. He's given up 8 ER or more in 4 different games!

Oh well. It probably doesn't matter that much, since Buccholz will be sent down when Brandon Backe returns. Still, I think Nieve is a better pitcher than Buchholz, for 2006 and beyond.

There has been some talk on Astros message boards about how badly Morgan Ensberg is slumping, etc. I mean, my god, he's only batting .249!

He also leads the team with 48 walks, and is 3rd to Chris Burke and Lance Berkman with a .381 OBP, and is 2nd to Berkman with a .541 SLG.

If his elbow is still bothering him, that's one thing, and we should let him rest. But to say we should bench him because he's not helping the club? Ridiculous.

The U.S. was bounced out of World Cup by a 2-1 loss to Ghana today. I'm disappointed, sure, but to be honest this wasn't a surprising result - Italy and the Czech Republic are both great teams, and Ghana is the best team in Africa. This was a brutal group to get out of. Expect better things in 2010.

One of the free agents that I wanted the Astros to go after this winter was Jason Johnson. Well, he was just released by the Indians after a 5.96 ERA in 14 starts. Johnson's main problem was that batters were hitting .341 off him, which is unlikely to continue - he's allowed a .282 batting average for his career. The Red Sox got him for cash and a PTBNL. I still think he can be a decent pitcher for the right team. He's getting an unbelievable number of groundballs this year, so maybe he just needs better infield defense.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Just when things were looking up (my last post was a little over-optimistic), we lose 2 out of 3 at home to the mighty Royals. We've got the Twins coming up next:

Radke vs. Oswalt
Silva vs. Wandy
Liriano vs. Clemens

That last match-up is going to get all the attention, as Roger Clemens returns to the Astros. I'm almost as concerned with tonight's game, just to see how Roy O looks on his 2nd start after his DL stint. Both Radke and Silva throw a ton of strikes and allow a bunch of hits.

The World Cup is still awesome to watch. I've got a bunch of free time until my river trip on June 25, so I've been watching a LOT of soccer. Big England vs. Sweden game today. Let's go Brits!
Just when things were looking up (my last post was a little over-optimistic), we lose 2 out of 3 at home to the mighty Royals. We've got the Twins coming up next:

Radke vs. Oswalt
Silva vs. Wandy
Liriano vs. Clemens

That last match-up is going to get all the attention, as Roger Clemens returns to the Astros. I'm almost as concerned with tonight's game, just to see how Roy O looks on his 2nd start after his DL stint. Both Radke and Silva throw a ton of strikes and allow a bunch of hits.

The World Cup is still awesome to watch. I've got a bunch of free time until my river trip on June 25, so I've been watching a LOT of soccer. Big England vs. Sweden game today. Let's go Brits!
Just when things were looking up (my last post was a little over-optimistic), we lose 2 out of 3 at home to the mighty Royals. We've got the Twins coming up next:

Radke vs. Oswalt
Silva vs. Wandy
Liriano vs. Clemens

That last match-up is going to get all the attention, as Roger Clemens returns to the Astros. I'm almost as concerned with tonight's game, just to see how Roy O looks on his 2nd start after his DL stint. Both Radke and Silva throw a ton of strikes and allow a bunch of hits.

The World Cup is still awesome to watch. I've got a bunch of free time until my river trip on June 25, so I've been watching a LOT of soccer. Big England vs. Sweden game today. Let's go Brits!

Friday, June 16, 2006

The Astros finished up a sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley yesterday, as Brad Ausmus had a 2-run single in the 8th that gave us a 3-2 win. Fernando Nieve pitched well, almost certainly insuring that Taylor Bucholz will be the one sent back to AAA when Roger Clemens joins the team on June 22. Chris Burke continued his great June (.405 / .476 / .578 for the month) with 2 hits and 2 walks yesterday. He appears to have won himself the majority of the starts in CF, forcing Willy T to the bench.

Morgan Ensberg pinch-hit yesterday and was hit by a pitch immediately. It didn't do any damage, though, and he should be starting today against Kansas City. Mike Lamb did an admirable job filling him, and should get the occasional start at 1st and 3rd and be the main pinch-hitter.

Brad Lidge seems to have settled down - he hasn't allowed any runs (and perhapes even better, not walks) in his 7 IP in June. He should be fine. Chad Qualls (who, somewhat surprisingly to me, has the 2nd highest VORP of any pitcher on the team behind Roy Oswalt, according to Baseball Prospectus) has also been fine since a rough April, and Dan Wheeler's peripheral stats (9 BB, 29 K in 28 IP) look pretty good. Even Trever Miller and Dave Borkowski have been good! It's easy to be flying high after a series sweep, but with Ensberg back, Clemens on the way, Lancey Lance putting up his usual 988 OPS, and two good starts in a row from Andy Pettitte, it's a good time to be an Astros fan.

Some things that I'd like to see:

Chris Burke getting at least a weekly start at 2B to rest Craig Biggio. I've said this plenty, but Biggio has collapsed after the All-Star Break the last two years. He needs more rest.

Eric Munson getting a little more playing time. After his ridiculous April, Brad Ausmus has put up his usual OPS's of 664 and 625 in the last two months. Munson isn't great, but he's slugging .431 on the year and has slugged .411 for his career, which is about 120 points higher than we can expect from Ausmus.

Patience with Jason Lane. Preston Wilson is having a nice comeback, and has his batting average up to .279. Even though he's batting .209, Lane still has Wilson covered easily in both OBP and OPS, yet Lane has been benched fairly often lately. He's not going to hit around .200 all year, and he's got the patience (38 walks, 2nd on the team to Ensberg's 44) and power that we need.

Improvement at the plate from Adam Everett. You can talk all you want to about how shortstop is a defensive position first, and that might be so, but a 571 OPS is awful. Everett seems to pop up or fly out weakly early on in the count WAY too often. First of all, he should take advantage of his speed by trying to hit more ground balls / line drives, and second of all, he should try working the count a little bit.

More walks from Preston Wilson. He takes wild swings often. That's ok if the pitch is a strike, but it still seems like he's pressing a bit and trying to hit huge home runs to left field on pitches a foot off the outside corner. Settle down, go the opposite way, and be a little more patient.

Fewer walks from Wandy Rodriguez. I'm not quite sure how, but Wandy only has a 4.48 ERA despite walking 40 batters in 80.1 IP. I know he doesn't have great stuff, so he can't exactly throw fastballs down the middle of the plate, but he has to quit walking so many batters.

Ok, that's enough. Everything is going well right now, so let's enjoy the ride. But we're only 35-32, still 5 games behind the Cardinals in the division and 2.5 games behind the Reds in the wild card. Clemens will help, but we have to keep working hard.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Roy O is back tonight, as we take on slumping Greg Maddux and the Cubs. The offense continued its recent tear last night - Chris Burke went 4-for-4 with a walk and scored all 5 times, Jason Lane had a hit and drew two walks, and Lance Berkman and Preston Wilson each had 5 RBI's. Sweet. Andy Pettitte looked smooth, giving up 1 run in 7 innings. All in all, a great win. I like this team again!

My first river trip of the summer was supposed to leave tomorrow, but I was unceremoniously bumped from it. It's a long story. I'm still going on one later this month, then an ultimate frisbee tournament in Chicago, and then a family trip to the Galapagos Islands, so I can't really complain. I plan on playing a fair amount of poker the next 10 days. Today was a brutal poker day, though - I had KK five times, and lost all five. I had AA, flopped an A, and lost to a runner-runner flush. None of my draws were coming in, I wasn't flopping sets...that's how it goes. Variance, variance, variance. I should understand small sample sizes better than most people, but it's still frustrating.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Things are looking better for the Astros - we took 3 of 4 from the Braves, and got our offense on track, as guys like Mike Lamb, Eric Munson, and Jason Lane had some big hits. It was great to see Lane have a big night - he's been the victim of some bad luck this year, and I still believe he can be a solid outfielder in this league. The Munson signing has also worked out nicely; it's fun having a catcher with some power, huh?

Roger Clemens made his 2nd rehab start last night, and struck out 12 in 6 innings. Guess he's ready. Andy and I were trying to figure out when Backe would be back, and when he finally is, a rotation of Roy O / Pettitte / Clemens / Backe / Wandy certainly looks good on paper.

I haven't been able to find it, but I seem to recall reading a Phil Garner quote that he wants to get Chris Burke in the lineup nearly every day. This appears to mean a lot less playing time for Willy T and Jason Lane. I like Burke too, but I think he works fine as a super-utility guy also. We'll see how this plays out.

The World Cup has been great so far, as long as you're not a huge American soccer fan. How about Australia's comeback today???

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Well, things can't get too much worse for the Astros:

Roy Oswalt misses a start due to back pain
Carlos Zambrano almost no-hits us in a 8-0 win
We get swept by the Cincinnati Reds
Jason Lane isn't playing much despite having a higher OPS than Preston Wilson
Adam Everett has a 576 OPS
Andy Pettitte has a 6.03 ERA

Shall I go on?

Ok, so we're struggling. We've been down and out the last two years and have come back to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, the National League looks stronger this year. The Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks are all good teams. Can we do it again?

I still say we have a better line-up than last year. Garner has been playing "Create a new lineup every day" for a while, but if he'd just stick with

Taveras
Biggio
Berkman
Ensberg
Wilson
Lane
Ausmus
Everett
P

I think we'd be a lot better off. Sure, Mike Lamb, Eric Bruntlett, and Chris Burke are playing well right now, but there's a reason they haven't forced their way into the starting lineup until now.

A rotation of Oswalt / Pettitte / Clemens / Wandy / Bucholz looks good on paper, but there are issues everywhere. Oswalt has thrown a crapload of innings in the last few years and now has back pain. Pettitte is getting hammered (and he's making 17.5 million this year!), Clemens isn't back for another two weeks, and Wandy and Bucholz have both sucked hard the last few weeks.

The bullpen should be good, at least. Lidge / Wheeler / Qualls is solid, Springer isn't terrible, Trever Miller has looked good, and even Dave Borkowski has done decently well.

All in all, anything is possible, but it's time to pick it up. Garner isn't helping us by sitting Lane and Everett.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Ouch! Wandy was absolutely pounded last night, giving up 7 runs, 6 hits and 5 walks while only recording 4 outs. Recently-promoted-from-AAA Chris Sampson came in and did a decent job in his first major-league appearance, giving up 3 ER in 5.2 innings.

In the best news of the day, we demoted Mike Gallo to AAA to make room for Sampson. Gallo had a 6.02 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP in 16 innings this year, and he looked even worse than that. Lefties were hitting .316 off him. Still want two lefties in the bullpen, Garner?

Let's talk about the Rocket coming back. First of all: I was wrong. I really didn't think Clemens would come back and said as much in past posts. Whoops. Now: who does he replace? According to the Chronicle, Fernando Nieve will be sent down. That makes our rotation Oswalt / Pettitte / Clemens / Wandy / Bucholz. Nice front three, again - rough bottom two. Let's ignore for a second the effect that Clemens will have on other Astros (Pettitte, bullpen, etc.) and just talk about what Clemens himself is likely to do.

Well, he put up a 1.87 ERA in 211.1 innings last year. Doing a little math it seems likely that he will pitch around 18 starts * 6.5 innings / start = 117 innings this year. In the first half of last year Clemens put up a 1.48 ERA in 122 innings. Can we expect that again? Maybe not exactly, but he's Roger Freaking Clemens. I'd guess around a 2.00-2.50 ERA.

Ok, now let's talk about the effect Roger might have on the rest of the team. First of all, it might just pump up his good buddy Andy Pettitte. Andy's main problem is batters are hitting .317 against him and he's already given up 12 HR's (17 all of last year). Both of these trends are unlikely to continue, and having Rocket there to cheer him on won't hurt either.

The bullpen should also benefit - Clemens is a lock to pitch more innings per start than Nieve, so Qualls, Wheeler and Lidge (79 IP combined) should get a little more rest.

Finally, the fans might benefit the most from Clemens returning. He guarantees a sellout crowd every 5th day, he gives us a boost, interest in the Astros shoots up, etc., etc. He makes the Astros exciting again.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Lost in 11 innings to St. Louis. It would have been a sweet to take 2 of 3 after sweeping a two-game set earlier in the year, but we didn't take advantage of baserunners and Mike Gallo pitched, so we lost.

Don't know why, but we're having terrible road woes for the second straight year. And it starts with the big boys. Mo and Lance both have OPS 200 points higher at home! What's the deal?

Speaking of which, it's time to evaluate some of our players and see what we can do to spark more offense.

Preston Wilson: Started very hot, hitting opposite-field homers like it was the name of his game. Then he struck out in 8 straight plate appearances and went on a month-long slump. He's been better of late, getting timely hits. His OPS is approaching .700, so we should ride him now.

Jason Lane: Jack's encouragement ("The hits will come, Jason") has not come true. He still looks lost sometimes, and appears to have made up mind to swing before he even sees a pitch. His routine? Watch strike one down the middle. Swing at strike two in the dirt. Strike out fanning at high heat. It's troublesome. But then he hits a 500-foot bomb. I'm hoping he'll repeat last year's second half. I can't exactly fault Garner for benching a sub-.200 hitter, but everyone knows Lane's a good player.

Willy T: His .650 OPS is about what was expected. He can do better, but if you want him to slug .400, you're dreaming.

Adam Everett: Enough about his defense. His .261 OBP is killing us. Mo and Lance are both slugging higher (.597 & .585) than Adam's OPS. He had a huge three-run double against the Nationals, but is it actually possible to do worse than he did at the plate last year?

Chris Burke: Mired in a 4-for-35 slump, but still showing promise with an OPS hovering over .800. With Everett's decline, we should check him out as an option at shortstop.

10-18 in May. Glad to see June is upon us. Cincinnati, Chicago and Atlanta at home, coming right up. And Interleague play to follow. Oh, and we picked up a kid named Clemens. Maybe he can help us out.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Well, after a hot start (19-9 at one point), the Astros have returned to Earth and now sit at 26-25. We can still expect our starting pitching, bullpen, Preston Wilson, and Jason Lane to get better. A big 3-game series against the Cardinals starts today. The pitching matchups:

Roy Oswalt (5-3, 3.36 ERA) vs. Jason Marquis (6-4, 5.12)

Andy Pettitte (3-6, 5.76) vs. Chris Carpenter (4-2, 2.63)

Taylor Bucholz (3-4, 5.57) vs. Jeff Suppan (5-4, 5.12)

Brad Ausmus on the 4-run ninth-inning rally yesterday:

"It has the potential to be the fulcrum of the season."

Berkman has great numbers against Marquis; hopefully he's back in the starting lineup, although Mike Lamb has done great things (.383, 3 HR in May) lately.

Start us off strong, Roy O.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Sorry, it's been a while. I graduated, went to a bachelor party in Vegas, and got my river-rafting schedule for June, and I've been catching up with the Astros. Let's jump right in:

Preston Wilson looks BAD. I've been watching the Astros-Nationals series, and maybe I should have noticed this before, but Wilson takes absolutely HUGE swings at everything, and whiffs most of the time. Maybe he's just in a slump, but would it kill him to shorten his swing just a touch?

Morgan Ensberg is crushing anything on the inner half.

Brad Lidge got a little unlucky yesterday. First of all, he was called in with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. He walked Matthew Lecroy after getting ahead of him 1-2. He got Daryle Ward to hit a hard ground ball to 1st that somehow got by Berkman. Then Soriano blooped one in, Clayton hit a grounder through the left side, etc. He didn't pitch that badly.

How about a quick league at some of the Astros minor league stars?

Round Rock (AAA):

Brooks Conrad, 2B: .263 / .314 / .497, 23 extra-base hits in 180 AB. Those aren't really impressive numbers in a hitter's park like Round Rock, but I'm still a Conrad fan, just because any middle infielder who can slug .450 in the major leagues is pretty decent.

Humberto Quintero, C: .270 / .298 / .438. He doesn't walk. I'm more excited about our catcher in AA.

Jason Hirsh, RHP: 4-2, 2.88 ERA, 22/45 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 59.1 IP. After a semi-slow start, Big Hirsh has gotten it going lately, and will probably get called up sometime later this year and will likely be in the rotation next year.

Corpus Christi (AA):

J.R. House, C: .337 / .396 / .503. Wow. I was cautiously optimistic about our signing of House earlier this offseason - he was a top catching prospect for the Pirates a few years back, blew out his shoulder, and was out for a while. But look at him now! I think there's a great chance that House takes over for Ausmus after '07.

Ben Zobrist, SS: .315 / .418 / .461 - I haven't mentioned this guy before, but he's quietly put up great OBP's as a shortstop. Adam Everett is a wizard with the glove and he's still cheap, but if he ever gets expensive Zobrist is a better offensive player than Everett right now.

Hunter Pence, LF: .310 / .357 / .630, 13 HR. Definitely the best offensive prospect in the organization. He's still working his way up, but the kid is slugging .630. I would think the Astros would move him to AAA pretty soon, and I'd like to see him get a good look at the LF job in '07, since our chances of re-signing Preston Wilson aren't looking too good. Pence has a ton of power and a 'weird swing', according to most scouts.

Matt Albers, LHP: 5-1, 2.20 ERA, 57.1 IP, 19/40 BB/K - Nice year so far for Albers - a few more strikeouts would be sweet, and he doesn't have as high a ceiling as the next guy on this list, but so far, so good.

Salem (A):

Troy Patton, LHP: 1-5, 4.20 ERA, 45.0 IP, 18 BB, 53 K - Forget about the record and the ERA - Patton's WHIP has been good, he's only allowed 2 HR, and his strikeout rate is still excellent. In my opinion Patton is the best pitching prospect in the organization, although it will take him a while to reach The Show.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Munson's batting fifth in today's game against the Nationals. Wilson sixth, Lane seventh. I really don't understand this. Lane has a higher OPS than Wilson and Munson. If anyone should be benched, it's got to be Preston. .247 / .287 / .380 is not what we signed him up for. Well, let's hope he takes his frustation out on his old team. Or at least swings really, really hard and falls down.
Doggy's back!

The Yankees reportedly have signed Richard Hidalgo to a deal. I don't particularly like the Yankees and have no strong ties to Hidalgo, but it's always nice to see a former Astro get a chance with another team. Doggy sports a .269 / .345 / .490 career line with 171 homers and 560 RBI in 987 games (including a .314/44/122 monster year in 2000). I think he'll either be a huge force or a huge bust with the Yanks. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how he fills in for Hideki.

By the way, I just bought the new album by EELS, and it's really good. It's called Blinking Lights and Other Revelations. Check it out.