Ok, after spending most of the 2 hour drive from Flagstaff to Phoenix talking Astros baseball with Andy, I figured it's time for a nice big post.
First of all, I've decided I'm pretty much ambivalent about Carlos Lee. If we give him 5/65, I won't be ecstatic, but I won't be depressed. I will say that I'd rather we give Alou 2/10 and Piazza 1/7. There' s just no way you can convince me that Carlos Lee + Brad Ausmus is better than Moises Alou + Mike Piazza or even something like Luis Gonzalez + Johnny Estrada.
I was cruising around Baseball Prospectus and I found an old article than convincingly argues that it is generally not worth it to give free agent deals to mediocre-to-slightly-above-average free agents. They generally argue for giving big contracts to superstars and going from there. In mathematical terms, the relationship between x=VORP and y=Net Worth is not a linear one, but more of an exponential one. A guy like Albert Pujols with an 85.4 VORP is not worth 10 times more than a guy with an 8.5 VORP. He's worth a lot more than that. With that in mind, I'm psyched that we have Berkman and Oswalt locked up for 5 more years each! Here's a list of the National League leaders in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player):
1. Albert Pujols, 85.4
2. Ryan Howard, 81.5
3. Miguel Cabrera, 78.7
4. Roy Oswalt, 72.4
5. Lance Berkman, 70.1
6. Brandon Webb, 68.9
7. Carlos Beltran, 68.5
8. Chris Carpenter, 67.8
9. Chase Utley, 65.2
10. Garret Atkins, 62.7
VORP doesn't take defense into account, so Berkman falls a little bit (more on this later), but still, 2 of the top 5 players in the league? COUNT IT. Oh, and Garret Atkins?? Wow.
There's a neat article over at The Baseball Analysts that talks about 'net stolen bases'. Essentially it takes stolen bases, caught stealings, and pick-offs into account and lists the best basestealers based on that. Willy Taveras was the best for the Astros, with the following numbers:
33 SB
9 CS
2 PO
which gives a net SB value of 11 = 33-(2*9)-(2*2).
That's not too bad; for comparison, the league leaders were Ichiro Suzuki with 39 and Dave Roberts with 31. So Taveras isn't quite in their tier, but his speed helps the team.
Andy and I generally agree that our biggest hole this offseason is our starting pitching. Our #1 priority needs to be to re-sign Andy Pettitte. We NEED to do this. Pettitte struggled in the 1st half this past year, but in the last 2 years he's pitched 222.3 and 214.3 innings with ERA's of 2.39 and 4.20. He's 34 years old, his strikeout rate is still good, and his most similar pitchers are Mike Mussina and Dwight Gooden. If we don't re-sign him, we're looking at Oswalt and a lot of questions marks. He signed a 3 / 31 deal in 2004; perhaps we could give him that same deal? I think he'd be worth it. He's worth slightly overpaying for if you look at the free agent market for pitchers. I think he's better than Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, personally.
If we sign Pettitte, we're looking at Oswalt / Pettitte / Hirsh / ? / ?. I personally like giving one of the question marks to Fernando Nieve, but there are many other options: Buchholz, Albers, Chris Sampson, etc. I'd be ok with just giving it to whichever of those guys looks the best in spring training. That leaves one more spot to fill. I've already argued that Woody Williams would make a decent fit (Option A). Here are two other guys that I'll endorse:
Option B: Brian Lawrence. This is Andy's idea, but I like it. He's coming off of surgery, but in 2003-2005 he pitched 210.7, 203.0, and 195.7 innings with ERA's of 4.19, 4.12, and 4.83. His walk rates are fairly low, he doesn't strike out too many guys, but with our excellent infield defense (more on this later), he could be a great fit. He's also very tough on righties (701 OPS allowed, 841 OPS for lefties), which is great for Minute Maid Park, which traditionally benefits right-handed hitters a lot. He'll be 31, and his most similar pitchers include Tomo Ohka and Bronson Arroyo.
Option C: Rodrigo Lopez. I've mentioned him before, but his walk / strikeout / HR rates are similar to Lawrence's, and he has to face the Yankees / Red Sox / Blue Jays lineups a ton. Compare that to the Brewers / Pirates / Cubs. Yum. He has no injury concers and is only 30 years old. I like him a lot. His most similar pitchers are John Thomson and Brett Tomko. Lefties and righties hit him equally well (779 OPS righties, 785 OPS lefties).
If forced to pick between one of Williams / Lawrence / Lopez, I pick the one with the highest groundball rate. Here are each of our three guys GB / FB ratios (so a number >1 means more groundballs, and <1 means more flyballs). Why groundball rate as the tiebreaker? Read on.
Woody Williams - 0.93/0.83/0.90. Worst rates of the three, and he's WORSE against righties.
Rodrigo Lopez - 1.33/1.13/1.23. Pretty solid.
Brian Lawrence - 1.61/1.81/1.46. Your winner, Brian Lawrence!! Tough on righties, a lot of groundalls = SOLID #3 STARTER! Do it, Purpura!! Andy, well done.
Let's talk about defense. Baseball Think Factory has a nice article up about their choices for National League Gold Gloves, and includes defensive stats for every regular. Here are the Astros stats, measure by Runs Saved / 150 games:
Catcher: Brad Ausmus, 0
First Base: Lance Berkman, -5
Second Base: Craig Biggio, 6 (!)
Shorstop: Adam Everett, 28 (!!) - Easily leads all SS in the NL. I quote from the article:
If Ozzie Smith was as good as Adam Everett, he was incredible. Everett is on the verge of saving the most runs on defense over the last 20 years. He’s truly incredible at outpacing his peers.
Third Base: Morgan Ensberg, 12 (!) - Barely leads all 3B in the NL (Feliz, Rolen are close).
Left Field: Preston Wilson, -31 (!!!) - Partially caused by the tiny left field at Minute Maid, but YIKES.
Center Field: Willy Taveras, 6 - 7th in the NL
Right Field: Jason Lane, -16 (!) - Ugh. Outfield defense besides Taveras = BAD.
So in summary, infield defense = great, outfield defense except for Taveras = BAD. Hence my desire for groundball pitchers. And that's some pretty high praise for Adam Everett.
Ok, that ought to give you some Astros tidbits to mull over. There's more that I'd like to talk about, but it basically boils down to Brad Ausmus being the bane of my existence, hoping we look into trading for Johnny Estrada, and Phil Garner rating pretty highly on a study of managers who get the most out of their players. Later.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday, October 09, 2006
Well, the Astros sure made it interesting toward the end of September, but the 2006 season was simply a case of "too little, too late." After a hot 19-9 start, the team just seemed stuck in doldrums of summer, always waiting for the "big run" to take them back to the postseason.
In a way, it might be a good thing that we didn't make the playoffs this year. Lets face it: we didn't deserve it, and to make the playoffs would have sent the message that the organization is making the right moves. It's not.
Not to place all the blame on the front office. Much of the team's futility can be traced to underperformance by many players, specifially the "locks": that is, the guys we all KNEW would produce. We didn't have to worry about them because they had a history of solid production and seemed to be on track for solid years. I'm talking, of course, about Ensberg, Pettitte, Lidge, and to a lesser extent, Wilson. Coming into the year, these were the guys we said would have very good, if not spectacular, seasons. And while they each showed flashes of brilliance (Wilson and Ensberg in the first month, Lidge and Pettitte in the second half), they quite simply did not come through.
Almost everyone else performed as predicted: Oswalt, Berkman and Clemens absolutely dominated. Biggio kept up his ridiculous home/away splits and slumped horrifically in the second half. Taveras went through a sophomore slump and was benched before turning it up in the second half. Burke progressed nicely with more playing time, although he was prone to extended slumps. Wandy got run support but proved that he's nothing special. Our young pitchers Buchholz and Hirsh struggled but showed some promise for the future. Our bullpen started slow, but Wheeler, Qualls, Springer and Miller were all very good, particularly in the second half.
Ausmus and Everett... well, they combined for 950 mostly worthless at-bats. Everett was magnificent on defense and is likely in line for the Gold Glove award. He actually did improve at the plate in the second half, and I do recall seeing him hit singles to right field a few times. So that says something. I don't want to discuss Ausmus because there's really nothing positive to say.
Believe it or not, the offseason is very exciting to me. So much can happen... so many different ways to go. Everyone gets to act like a GM and criticize, complement or chastise every small move that's made.
The first move Purpura made was adding reliever Paul Estrada to the 40-man roster and sending down Eric Munson and J.R. House. Though he went hitless in nine major league at-bats this year (although Ryan Freel robbed him of an extra-base hit), House went NUTS in the minor leagues this year and could really do some good things at the plate for the Astros in the future. I hope we can hold onto him, although I think by sending him down, we are subjecting him to the Rule 5 draft. I don't know the rules on this... maybe Jack can clue me in.
Purpura will have a lot do this this winter. He'll resign Biggio (somewhere in the $3 million neighborhood), and he'll have to think long and hard about resigning Pettitte. Clemens is another story altogether. We'll have plenty of time to discuss free agents throughout the next few months (I've renewed my pledge to be more involved with The Juicebox), but here's a list of potential free agents I think we should consider:
Hitters:
Moises Alou
Rod Barajas
MIke Cameron*
Frank Catalanotto
David Dellucci
Jermaine Dye
Jim Edmonds*
Luis Gonzalez
Jose Guillen
Torii Hunter
Javy Lopez
Trot Nixon
Mike Piazza
Alfonso Soriano
Pitchers:
Tony Armas Jr.
Pedro Astacio
Miguel Batista
Mark Buerhle
Brian Lawrence
Ted Lilly
Mike Mussina*
Tomo Ohka
Vicente Padilla
Chan Ho Park
Brad Radke
Jason Schmidt
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Woody Williams
Barry Zito
(* = option with current team)
Oh yeah, and there's also the issue that A-Rod might be traded from the Yankees. The Yanks are so funny... could any other team hate a guy who consistently puts up All-Star numbers? Did any other vaunted Yankee sluggers really do well against the Tigers' pitching? It's crazy.
So a big question is, should we pursue A-Rod? I say Yes. The Yanks need pitching, bullpen help... and a thirdbaseman if they trade A-Rod. I'd give up Ensberg, Lidge and a prospect for A-Rod and cash. While I'm at it, I'd sign Piazza to split time with Ausmus. Then sign Alou, who's put up a .900 OPS for three straight years!
For the rotation, I'd like to take a chance on some starters. Brian Lawrence particularly interests me. He put up three good years in San Diego (pre-Petco), throwing 200+ IP with an ERA hovering around 4.00. Not sure what his injury status is, but he could be a valuable pickup. Also on my mind are Batista and Williams. They;re old and they don't strike out anyone, but they seem like they'd fit well in the clubhouse, and with Ausmus half the time, they could put up some decent innings.
OK, enough rambling. Here's hoping good things are on the way this offseason.
In a way, it might be a good thing that we didn't make the playoffs this year. Lets face it: we didn't deserve it, and to make the playoffs would have sent the message that the organization is making the right moves. It's not.
Not to place all the blame on the front office. Much of the team's futility can be traced to underperformance by many players, specifially the "locks": that is, the guys we all KNEW would produce. We didn't have to worry about them because they had a history of solid production and seemed to be on track for solid years. I'm talking, of course, about Ensberg, Pettitte, Lidge, and to a lesser extent, Wilson. Coming into the year, these were the guys we said would have very good, if not spectacular, seasons. And while they each showed flashes of brilliance (Wilson and Ensberg in the first month, Lidge and Pettitte in the second half), they quite simply did not come through.
Almost everyone else performed as predicted: Oswalt, Berkman and Clemens absolutely dominated. Biggio kept up his ridiculous home/away splits and slumped horrifically in the second half. Taveras went through a sophomore slump and was benched before turning it up in the second half. Burke progressed nicely with more playing time, although he was prone to extended slumps. Wandy got run support but proved that he's nothing special. Our young pitchers Buchholz and Hirsh struggled but showed some promise for the future. Our bullpen started slow, but Wheeler, Qualls, Springer and Miller were all very good, particularly in the second half.
Ausmus and Everett... well, they combined for 950 mostly worthless at-bats. Everett was magnificent on defense and is likely in line for the Gold Glove award. He actually did improve at the plate in the second half, and I do recall seeing him hit singles to right field a few times. So that says something. I don't want to discuss Ausmus because there's really nothing positive to say.
Believe it or not, the offseason is very exciting to me. So much can happen... so many different ways to go. Everyone gets to act like a GM and criticize, complement or chastise every small move that's made.
The first move Purpura made was adding reliever Paul Estrada to the 40-man roster and sending down Eric Munson and J.R. House. Though he went hitless in nine major league at-bats this year (although Ryan Freel robbed him of an extra-base hit), House went NUTS in the minor leagues this year and could really do some good things at the plate for the Astros in the future. I hope we can hold onto him, although I think by sending him down, we are subjecting him to the Rule 5 draft. I don't know the rules on this... maybe Jack can clue me in.
Purpura will have a lot do this this winter. He'll resign Biggio (somewhere in the $3 million neighborhood), and he'll have to think long and hard about resigning Pettitte. Clemens is another story altogether. We'll have plenty of time to discuss free agents throughout the next few months (I've renewed my pledge to be more involved with The Juicebox), but here's a list of potential free agents I think we should consider:
Hitters:
Moises Alou
Rod Barajas
MIke Cameron*
Frank Catalanotto
David Dellucci
Jermaine Dye
Jim Edmonds*
Luis Gonzalez
Jose Guillen
Torii Hunter
Javy Lopez
Trot Nixon
Mike Piazza
Alfonso Soriano
Pitchers:
Tony Armas Jr.
Pedro Astacio
Miguel Batista
Mark Buerhle
Brian Lawrence
Ted Lilly
Mike Mussina*
Tomo Ohka
Vicente Padilla
Chan Ho Park
Brad Radke
Jason Schmidt
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Woody Williams
Barry Zito
(* = option with current team)
Oh yeah, and there's also the issue that A-Rod might be traded from the Yankees. The Yanks are so funny... could any other team hate a guy who consistently puts up All-Star numbers? Did any other vaunted Yankee sluggers really do well against the Tigers' pitching? It's crazy.
So a big question is, should we pursue A-Rod? I say Yes. The Yanks need pitching, bullpen help... and a thirdbaseman if they trade A-Rod. I'd give up Ensberg, Lidge and a prospect for A-Rod and cash. While I'm at it, I'd sign Piazza to split time with Ausmus. Then sign Alou, who's put up a .900 OPS for three straight years!
For the rotation, I'd like to take a chance on some starters. Brian Lawrence particularly interests me. He put up three good years in San Diego (pre-Petco), throwing 200+ IP with an ERA hovering around 4.00. Not sure what his injury status is, but he could be a valuable pickup. Also on my mind are Batista and Williams. They;re old and they don't strike out anyone, but they seem like they'd fit well in the clubhouse, and with Ausmus half the time, they could put up some decent innings.
OK, enough rambling. Here's hoping good things are on the way this offseason.
Monday, October 02, 2006
> Here's a summary of what the Astros should do this offseason. By the way, a
> good link towards 2007 free agents is here:
>
> http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/5916868
>
> Well, it was a fun last two weeks, but the 2006 season
> for the Astros is over. We finished at 82-80, which
> is about where we belong considering we scored 735
> runs (12th out of 16 teams in the NL) and allowed 719
> runs (2nd out of 16 teams). This offseason should be
> an interesting one - here's what I'm thinking,
> position by position:
>
> Catcher - Brad Ausmus / Humberto Quintero / J.R. House
>
> Ugh. Ausmus and Angel Berroa of the Royals had a long
> showdown to see which regular would end the year with
> the lowest OPS in baseball (Ausmus - 593, Berroa - ).
> He also only threw out 17 of 77 basestealers, a
> career-low 22%. Basically: he's terrible, and we're
> stuck with him for another year. We have to play him,
> but hopefully as little as possible. He did put up a
> .333 OBP against lefties, so hopefully platoon him
> with Quintero or House a little more. Long-term, look
> to sign a free-agent catcher after 2007. I wanted
> Ramon Hernandez (.275 / .343 / .479, 23 HR, 91 RBI) or
> Johnny Estrada (.302 / .328 / .444, 11 HR, 71 RBI)
> this past off-season. Damn.
>
> First Base - Lance Berkman
>
> That was easy. Lancey Lance had a huge year in '06,
> leading the team in virtually every important
> offensive category, and hitting .315 / .420 / .621
> with 45 HR and 98 walks. It's a great start to his 6
> year / 75 million dollar contract, and if he stays
> healthy he should be absolutely worth it. Note: He
> slugged .704 against righties this year; only .416
> against lefties.
>
> Second Base - Craig Biggio / Chris Burke
>
> Biggio has some really weird splits this year (his
> worst year in a LONG time, by the way). He hit a
> solid .298 / .346 / .522 at home, and a jaw-droppingly
> awful .178 / .253 / .288 on the road. Is that even
> possible? Once again, he collapsed after the All-Star
> Break (784 OPS before, 648 OPS after), as he has for
> quite a while. Hopefully this means he gets off to a
> good start in 2007, gets to 3000 hits (he's 70 away)
> by the ASB, at which point Burke (who had a good
> building block kind of year, hitting .276 / .347 /
> .418) takes over the 2nd base job for good, with
> Biggio getting occasional sentimental 'farewell'
> starts at home in front of the fans.
>
> Third Base - Morgan Ensberg
>
> This is my biggest offseason concern BY FAR. I am
> terrified that the Astros will make Mike Lamb or
> Aubrey Huff their 3rd baseman and let Ensberg walk,
> where he will get snapped up by some team like the
> Padres, where he will put up a .400 OBP and solid
> defense for cheap. Yes, Ensberg had a strange
> injury-filled year, and he hit only .235. But he put
> up a .396 OBP, HIGHER than his career year of 2005,
> and drew 101 walks despite missing a lot of time.
> He'll be 31 at the start of '07, but he has a career
> .270 / .372 / .486 line, which is exactly what we need
> batting in front of Berkman. PLEASE re-sign Ensberg.
> He won't even be that expensive (he made 3.8 million
> this year).
>
> Shortstop - Adam Everett
>
> Unlike Brad Ausmus, Everett really does live up to his
> fielding reputation. There have been several articles
> that have Everett conservatively listed as saving
> approximately 40 runs with his glove over the course
> of the season. He's that good. Yeah, his offense is
> bad: .239 / .290 / .352 but I think he's still worth
> it. He's cheap, too - $1.9 million this year. We
> don't have any better options anyway.
>
> Outfield - RF: Luke Scott / Jason Lane
>
> Luke Scott = Roy Hobbs, circa 2006? Scott came out of
> nowhere with a Pujols-like .336 / .426 / .622 line in
> the final few months. I don't think he's THAT good -
> first of all, no one is, and 2nd of all, he's a career
> .277 / .363 / .524 hitter in the minors. That's not
> too bad, but Jason Lane is a career .252 / .324 / .475
> hitter in the majors, and he needs more playing time.
> He actually hit lefties better this year, and is
> slightly better against them over his career (821 OPS
> to 788 OPS), so I like them platooning in RF and
> having the other as our 4th outfielder / PH
> specialist.
>
> CF: Willy Taveras
>
> Willy T is similar to Everett in that he really is
> good defensively, and although he's frustrating
> offensively he did put up a .333 OBP with decent SB
> rates (33/42). His 2nd half stats are particularly
> encouraging: .308 / .365 / .375 with 20 SB / 4 CS.
> Combine that with the fact that he'll be 25 in
> December and will be cheap, and he'll be fine.
>
> LF: Moises Alou / Hunter Pence
>
> Now, left field. Top prospect Hunter Pence might get
> a shot, but I'd rather give a short-term deal to a
> free agent. How about one lasthurrah for Moises Alou?
> He had his highest OPS in 4 years this past year,
> hitting .301 / .352 / .571. He's pretty bad
> defensively but he only has to cover the 4 square feet
> that comprise left field at Minute Maid. He'll also
> need plenty of rest, so Lane / Pence can fill in for
> him plenty. Alou was extremely popular in Houston,
> and loves hitting at Minute Maid .337 / .405 / .591,
> 37 HR, 153 RBI in 606 AB. Put that into a 400 AB
> season and account for some aging (Alou will be 40,
> but he just put up the best OPS of his last 4 year),
> and you're looking at something like .300 / .370 /
> .520, 20 HR, 85 RBI. Just make sure you don't give
> him a multi-year deal! I don't hink he'll get one,
> anyway. One really important note - Alou is a dead
> pull hitter. In fact, this is one thing that I want
> to talk about: Minute Maid deserves to be treated as a
> unique ballpark because of the short fence. Righties
> hit MUCH better there, so it is to our advantage (all
> other things equal) to have righty pull hitters on
> offense (Biggio, Ensberg, Alou) and pitchers that are
> tough on right-handed batters.
>
> Bench: Humberto Quintero, Eric Bruntlett, Mike Lamb,
> Jason Lane, Orlando Palmeiro
>
> Starting Pitchers - Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Woody
> Williams, Fernando Nieve , Jason Hirsh
>
> Anyone realize that Oswalt was the only NL pitcher to
> finish with a sub-3.00 ERA? His 2.98 ERA is awesome,
> he only walked 38 in 220.2 IP, is tough on righties,
> doesn't give up many HR's...what's not to like? His 5
> year / 73 million dollar deal should be ok ASSUMING HE
> STAYS HEALTHY, just like Berkman. I think Oswalt is
> more of an injury risk because he is of slight build,
> has a fairly violent delivery, and he has to pitch,
> while Berkman plays 1B.
>
> I really think Andy Pettitte is going to want to come
> back (he'll be 34 in July), and it seems that he likes
> pitching in Houston. He got off to a rough start last
> year but then turned it on in the 2nd half: 5.28 ERA
> before, 2.80 ERA after. He's still got a nice
> strikeout rate (178 K / 214.1 IP) and is a nice fit
> for our infield defense (Ensberg / Everett / Burke) as
> a groundball pitcher.
>
> I read on RotoWorld that Woody Williams really,
> REALLY, wants to come pitch for the Astros. He's from
> the area and has always mentioned how much he likes
> the team. Do we want him? For the right price, I say
> yes. He had a solid year in 2006, putting up a 3.65
> ERA and a 2-to-1 K/BB ratio. He did give up 21 HR,
> and pitched significantly better at home in spacious
> Petco Park, so there is concern here. He'll be 40, so
> a 1 year / 5 million dollar deal would be fine.
>
> After that, it's pretty wide open. I really want to
> see Fernando Nieve get a look as a starter - we really
> don't need him in the bullpen (see below), and he had
> a much better BB/K ratio as a starter. Oh, and he's
> tough on righties.
>
> I'm guessing Jason Hirsh will be the 5th starter. He
> gave up 10 ER in 2.2 IP at Cincinnati in his 3rd
> start; take that away and his ERA was 4.27 and his
> WHIP was 1.33. He dominated at AAA last year (2.10
> ERA in 137.1 IP) and has nothing more to prove there.
>
> Bullpen - Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Russ
> Springer, Trever Miller, Chris Sampson
>
> Lidge had issues with command last year, but he has
> too much potential to give up on. Qualls needs to
> throw fewer innings (168 the last 2 years). Wheeler
> had a 1.11 ERA in the 2nd half. Springer actually had
> a really good year last year, with a 3/1 BB/K ratio
> and a 1.04 WHIP, and Trever Miller was a good Purpura
> signing, pitching 50 innings with a 3.02 ERA. Note to
> Garner: Miller was just as good against righties last
> year. I like Chris Sampson as a spot starter /
> long-relief guy more than Matt Albers or Wandy
> Rodriguez or Taylor Buchholz. Albers isn't quite
> there yet, Wandy has a career 5.58 ERA in 264 IP in
> the majors, and Buchholz had a 5.89 ERA last year.
> Sampson is a groundball machine who doesn't walk
> anybody, kind of a mini-Qualls.
>
> Those are the mainstays, though there a few prospects
> that might break through:
>
> Brooks Conrad played mostly 2B last year and can't
> field that well, but he did lead the league in
> extra-base hits while slugging .534 at AAA. Not too
> bad. Paul Estrada struck out 134 guys in only 88
> innings as our AA closer.
>
> Well, that's that.
>
> My lineup:
>
> Taveras
> Ensberg
> Berkman
> Alou
> Scott / Lane
> Biggio / Burke
> Everett
> Ausmus / Quintero
> P
>
> My rotation:
>
> Oswalt
> Pettitte
> Williams
> Nieve
> Hirsh
>
> and a pen of
>
> Wheeler
> Qualls
> Lidge
> Miller
> Springer
> Sampson
>
>
>
> It's not a terrible team, and it's unlikely that we'd
> make the playoffs, but the NL Central is still weak,
> and it's got a good mix of breaking in the youngsters
> (Taveras, Scott, Burke, Pence, Nieve, Hirsh, Sampson)
> and signing a few popular veterans that should please
> the fans (Biggio, Alou, Pettitte, Williams).
>
> It wouldn't be a terribly expensive team, either - I
> don't think bringing in Carlos Lee would make a huge
> difference - the only 'name' signings would be Alou,
> Pettitte, and Williams.
>
> In a year or two, those three and Ausmus should be
> moving on, hopefully replaced by Hunter Pence or Adam
> Dunn, a few of our pitching prospects, and a 2008 free
> agent catcher (Johnny Estrada, Jorge Posada, etc.)
>
> That's enough. I guess I was pretty bored.
>
> -Jack
>
> Next time: 5 reasons why I don't want Carlos Lee.
Friday, September 15, 2006
Another day, another Astros Daily link:
Apparently the D-Backs are shopping Johnny Estrada because they've got a good catching prospect coming up from the minors next year.
As I said last offseason, I like Johnny Estrada a lot. He hits for a good average, draws a few walks, and hits for some power. He's at .302 / .326 / .454 this year, with most of his power coming at home. He also hits righties better than lefties, so we could platoon him and Ausmus.
The only problem? Arizona has a new GM, Josh Byrnes and in two words: He good. He knows what he's doing, and he'll probably ask a lot for Estrada. However, if we could get him for a reasonable deal, I'd jump at the chance. Just don't give up any top prospects (or Lidge, Barstool!)
Apparently the D-Backs are shopping Johnny Estrada because they've got a good catching prospect coming up from the minors next year.
As I said last offseason, I like Johnny Estrada a lot. He hits for a good average, draws a few walks, and hits for some power. He's at .302 / .326 / .454 this year, with most of his power coming at home. He also hits righties better than lefties, so we could platoon him and Ausmus.
The only problem? Arizona has a new GM, Josh Byrnes and in two words: He good. He knows what he's doing, and he'll probably ask a lot for Estrada. However, if we could get him for a reasonable deal, I'd jump at the chance. Just don't give up any top prospects (or Lidge, Barstool!)
A recent post at Astros Daily described Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, and Jason Lane as the three most disappointing Astros in 2006. While it's true that none of them have had great years, I believe that there is reason for optimism for all three:
Morgan Ensberg is only hitting .229, but he's drawn 92 walks this year and his OBP / SLG is 389/458, good for an 847 OPS , which ranks 7th among National League 3rd basemen (behind Cabrera, Atkins, Wright, Ramirez, Rolen, and Freddy Sanchez). All this with a wrist injury that killed his 2nd half stats.
Jason Lane is kind of a mini-Ensberg - he's hitting .210, but his OBP / SLG are 328/404, which gives him an OPS of 732. That's not too good, but it's better than Preston Wilson, and it's basically as good at Aubrey Huff. Lane is better than a .210 hitter, and if his batting average rises next year and he keeps his patience, he should be a decent corner outfielder.
Brad Lidge has had some brutal games, and his 5.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are pretty ugly for a closer. But he's still struck out 94 in only 65.2 innings. His downfall has been his control - 32 walks in that same time span. But he's still giving up less than a hit an inning, and he can cut down on his walks, his strikeout rate is still awesome enough to make him a good closer. I think he can do it.
Morgan Ensberg is only hitting .229, but he's drawn 92 walks this year and his OBP / SLG is 389/458, good for an 847 OPS , which ranks 7th among National League 3rd basemen (behind Cabrera, Atkins, Wright, Ramirez, Rolen, and Freddy Sanchez). All this with a wrist injury that killed his 2nd half stats.
Jason Lane is kind of a mini-Ensberg - he's hitting .210, but his OBP / SLG are 328/404, which gives him an OPS of 732. That's not too good, but it's better than Preston Wilson, and it's basically as good at Aubrey Huff. Lane is better than a .210 hitter, and if his batting average rises next year and he keeps his patience, he should be a decent corner outfielder.
Brad Lidge has had some brutal games, and his 5.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are pretty ugly for a closer. But he's still struck out 94 in only 65.2 innings. His downfall has been his control - 32 walks in that same time span. But he's still giving up less than a hit an inning, and he can cut down on his walks, his strikeout rate is still awesome enough to make him a good closer. I think he can do it.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
State of the Astros
What's new with the Astros? Phil Garner is still talking loudly about making the playoffs ("We have to win every game!"), but at this point it's fairly obvious that there are too many teams ahead of us to make another playoff surge very likely.
Brandon Backe is going to miss the rest of the season and all of 2007 from Tommy John surgery. It's not a huge loss - Backe has never pitched for an entire season and he's really not that good. He's had some great moments as an Astro but you could look at this as an opportunity to give some of our younger pitching prospects a chance. With that in mind, how does our team look for next year?
C Brad Ausmus / Humberto Quintero / J.R. House
1B Lance Berkman / Mike Lamb?
2B Craig Biggio / Chris Burke
SS Adam Everett
3B Morgan Ensberg / Aubrey Huff?
LF Luke Scott
CF Willy Taveras
RF Jason Lane
SP Roy Oswalt, ?,?,?,?
Bullpen Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Trever Miller, ?, ?
Random Thoughts on the Above
I'm hoping that we don't give up on Ensberg just because he's had an injury-filled 2006 - if you want to know what he's capable of, look at his April (1232 OPS, 9 HR) of this year. Having to watch Brad Ausmus start another 100 games at catcher makes me sad. Craig Biggio should reach 3,000 hits around the All-Star Break; hopefully, once he does, we can start playing Chris Burke there a little more often. After reading a mini-article at Baseball Primer about various defensive ratings, I have reconciled myself that Adam Everett is at worse a slight net minus on the Astros. His offense is putrid but his defense is excellent at a key position. And he's not making much. That outfield is pretty damn open. I have mixed feelings about all of them. His recent tear aside, I don't think Luke Scott is a starting corner outfielder in the major leagues. I love him as a 4th/5th outfielder and pinch-hitter. I have mixed feelings about Willy T, but he is young and plays good defense, so there's no reason not to play him unless we're going for it all, which we shouldn't be. I still believe in Jason Lane - he's shown both patience and power this year, and if he can just hit .250 in the major leagues he'll be an asset.
So on the offensive side I hope we start looking at giving Quintero and/or House plenty of playing time, start resting Biggio once he gets his milestone, and look for a short-term left fielder. Hunter Pence is a possibility but I'd like to see us at least look at signing a cheap stopgap a la Preston Wilson or Jose Cruz Jr. or Reggie Sanders. I know Wilson didn't work out for us this year, but it wasn't a bad idea at the time.
The starting rotation is where things really get interesting. We have exactly 0 sure things after Oswalt. We might re-sign Pettitte or Clemens, and Wandy / Buccholz / Hirsh / Nieve are all possibilites. I sat down to look at the FA market for pitchers this offseason and it's not pretty (Zito / Schmidt are out of our price range, probably, and then you've got guys like Woody Williams, Randy Wolf, John Thomson, and Vicente Padilla. I wouldn't mind giving any of those guys a 2 or 3 year deal for the right price, but that might not be possible.
Combine everything that I've said so far and it should become clear that we're not likely to have a contending team next year. If everything goes right then it's definitely possible, but it's unlikely. With that in mind, next year (and particularly the 2nd half of next year, when we're 10 games under .500) becomes Rebuilding Year 1. I think the plan should be to play the kids (Willy T, Lane, Quintero / House, Burke, Buccholz, Nieve, Pence) in '07, keep rebuilding in '08, and hopefully make big push for the playoffs in 2009/10/11. Berkman is signed through 2010 and Oswalt through 2011, so that period would hopefully coincide with the last of their 'peak' years.
Anyway that's looking pretty far ahead, but that's what I do. Take it easy.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Cinco de Roy O!
After slaughtering the Brewers 10-3 last night, my dad gave me a call and said that Jason Lane had hit a pinch-hit grand slam and that the Astros had scheduled a press conference after the game. I didn't really know what we'd announce - had we traded for someone? Then I remembered reading on Astros Daily (the best Astros site there is) that we had started contract talks with Roy Oswalt.
That was indeed what the press conference was about, as Tim Purpura announced that the Astros had signed Roy Oswalt to a 5 year / 73 million dollar contract on his 29th birthday. I'm excited about it - we've now locked up Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt to long-term deals (6/85, starting 2006 and 5/73, starting 2007 respectively), and we're going to build the team around the two of them, apparently. They're two pretty good players to build around - by VORP, Berkman is the 14th most valuable position player in baseball (Travis Hafner is #1 by quite a bit) and Oswalt is the 6th most valuable pitcher in baseball (Santana / Halladay are virtually tied for 1st)
I admit that I would have been happier with something like a 3 year / 45 million dollar deal - pay a little bit more per year for a shorter contract. Oswalt is a great pitcher, but he has had slight injury issues in the past, his strikeout rate is decreasing, and he's 29. I immediately think of Tim Hudson's decline the past few years, and Oswalt and Hudson are similar pitchers with similar body types. Nevertheless, I'm happy with the deal - Oswalt is a popular player, it seems like McLane has been more willing to open his pocketbook lately (so we can still afford the occasional free agent while paying Berkman + Oswalt a combined 30 million a year), and...it's Roy O! (I just noticed the contract includes a no-trade clause, which makes it a little worse.)
Here are a few other thoughts:
RotoWorld
Astros signed RHP Roy Oswalt to a five-year, $73 million contract extension through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012.
A whopper. Oswalt had one more year of arbtration remaining after making $11 million this year. He's now due to receive $13 million in each of the next two years, $14 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010 and $16 million in 2011. The amount of the option wasn't disclosed, but there's a $2 million buyout. He also gets a full no-trade clause. Assuming that Oswalt would have made about $13 million next year anyway, what the Astros are really doing is buying four free agency years for $60 million. It's a fair price given his talent, though committing to any pitcher for such a length of time is a big risk. Oswalt's strikeout rate has steadily dipped, his batting-average against has increased and he has had oblique issues. A decline over the next few years is a real possibility.
Baseball Primer comments on the signing are here.
I've gotta run, but you have to be happy about watching Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt locked up as Astros for the next 5 years.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Willy Taveras has a 29-game hitting streak going, and he's hitting .340 / .383 / .407 for the 2nd half, which is actually pretty similar to his minor-league numbers. I still get frustrated watching his at-bats because it seems like his swing is way too long, but you can't argue with the recent results.
Chad Qualls has had a disappointing year (4.33 ERA), but some of that might be due to the fact that he's been pitching A TON. He had 79.2 IP in 77 appearances last year, and he's already up to 72.2 IP in 63 appearances this year. The reliever with the next-most innings pitched is Brad Lidge with 60.0.
Scott Barzilla has a cool article up at Astros Daily about a SABR meeting with Tim Purpura. In it Purpura says that finding a catcher to replace Ausmus after 2007 will define his legacy as GM. Pretty strong words.
Brad Lidge hasn't been scored upon in his last four outings and last night he struck out the side to get the save. Part of it might be due to his new two-seam fastball - I can't find the article now, but Lidge said he's been working on the new pitch a lot.
Chad Qualls has had a disappointing year (4.33 ERA), but some of that might be due to the fact that he's been pitching A TON. He had 79.2 IP in 77 appearances last year, and he's already up to 72.2 IP in 63 appearances this year. The reliever with the next-most innings pitched is Brad Lidge with 60.0.
Scott Barzilla has a cool article up at Astros Daily about a SABR meeting with Tim Purpura. In it Purpura says that finding a catcher to replace Ausmus after 2007 will define his legacy as GM. Pretty strong words.
Brad Lidge hasn't been scored upon in his last four outings and last night he struck out the side to get the save. Part of it might be due to his new two-seam fastball - I can't find the article now, but Lidge said he's been working on the new pitch a lot.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
The Astros made an interesting move yesterday, calling up catcher J.R. House yesterday and sending Eric Munson down. House has been tearing up minor-league pitching all year and was an excellent prospect for the Pirates a few years ago before injuries hit him hard. Munson doesn't have to accept the minor-league assignment, but it looks like he probably will:
Munson, who hit .204 (28-for-137) with five homers and 19 RBIs this season, expressed his interest in staying with the organization, too.
"Even with Wandy's loss yesterday, he's still 9-7," Garner said. "He's won 19 games over two years."
He also has a 5.45 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and an unimpressive 109 / 152 walk to strikeout ratio. But he's won 19 games, so he must be good, just like Jeriome Robertson, right?
I also saw this little tidbit:
Fernando Nieve, who is viewed as a potential future closer...
I'm kinda bummed about this, actually - all their struggles this year aside, Lidge, Wheeler, and Qualls are still decent relievers. I don't think we need another righty closer in Nieve. He's actually been excellent this year for a rookie, especially in the 2nd half (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). I'd like to see him be the 4th or 5th starter next year, not a "future closer".
Munson, who hit .204 (28-for-137) with five homers and 19 RBIs this season, expressed his interest in staying with the organization, too.
"[I'd like to stay with the Astros] unless something else comes up that seems like a better opportunity, but I can't imagine a better opportunity," Munson said. "They gave me a chance to catch again, which I love to do. I'm thankful that they did that. I like it here, so I really don't see any reason to go anywhere else."
Some more info on House:
The Astros' desperate need for offense prompted this roster move. House split the season between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Round Rock, and since his promotion to the Express at the end of the July, he's hit .438 (36-for-82) with three homers, 12 doubles and 26 RBIs over 22 games.
Garner intends to use House as a catcher and pinch-hitter.
"If I can find another way to get him in the lineup, let him swing the bat," Garner said. "We're looking for offense, and he's swinging the bat well."
I think Garner is exactly right about finding a way to get House into the lineup. But every time I agree with him, he says something like this:"Even with Wandy's loss yesterday, he's still 9-7," Garner said. "He's won 19 games over two years."
He also has a 5.45 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and an unimpressive 109 / 152 walk to strikeout ratio. But he's won 19 games, so he must be good, just like Jeriome Robertson, right?
I also saw this little tidbit:
Fernando Nieve, who is viewed as a potential future closer...
I'm kinda bummed about this, actually - all their struggles this year aside, Lidge, Wheeler, and Qualls are still decent relievers. I don't think we need another righty closer in Nieve. He's actually been excellent this year for a rookie, especially in the 2nd half (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). I'd like to see him be the 4th or 5th starter next year, not a "future closer".
Thursday, August 17, 2006
In the spirit of re-jump-starting this blog (I've been away for a while, and I miss talking about the Astros), I decided to try a new design. It's a little simpler and it doesn't have that tan background. Maybe it's better, maybe it's worse, but it's different.
Let's jump right into Astros news:
- So we got swept by the Cubs at home, and we're now 4.5 games back in the wildcard and 7 back in the division. This is mostly the fault of the offense - we were shut out for the last 21 innings of this series and scored 6 runs total in 3 games. No good. Who are the main culprits? Here are a few of their starters and their OPS after the All Star Break:
Craig Biggio - 744 OPS
Morgan Ensberg - 734
Brad Ausmus - 532
Eric Munson - 429
Chris Burke - 710
But let's be honest - if your lineup is
Taveras
Biggio
Berkman
Huff
Scott
Ensberg
Everett
Ausmus
P
do you really expect to score many runs?
- Richard Justice thinks that we shouldn't blame the lack of offense on Ausmus or Everett because they are there for their defense. I'm so sick of the point of view that I don't know what to say anymore. The only way Ausmus could make up for his lack of offense in the 2nd half is to play multiple positions at the same time, throw every runner out (instead of his current 20%) and distract every hitter with comments about their wife / sister / dog. Instead, he just sucks.
- We released Preston Wilson and handed the starting LF job to Luke Scott. Wilson has indeed been really bad, hitting only .269 / .309 / 405 on the year, with only 9 HR. Scott has been hot, hitting .419 / .481 / .656, but let's not get too optimistic - he's a .276 career hitter in the minors. I think Scott would make a fine 4th OF in the majors - the fact that he's starting for us is a sad indictment of the current state of our offense. I do like releasing Wilson, though - why waste his time or ours?
- Brad Lidge blew another save two nights ago, giving up a solo HR to Matt Murton. After the game Garner said he was going to try a closer-by-committee approach for a while. Lidge still has a great strikeout rate (77 K, 53.2 IP) but he's been wild often and simply cannot locate his fastball - like Andy said, he rarely pitches inside and all too often leaves hittable fastballs over the middle of the plate. I still have hope that Lidge can figure things out, but maybe he needs a little less pressure on him all the time.
That's it for now - I want to start making posts with a few important points rather than rambling on. Here's to a fresh start.
Let's jump right into Astros news:
- So we got swept by the Cubs at home, and we're now 4.5 games back in the wildcard and 7 back in the division. This is mostly the fault of the offense - we were shut out for the last 21 innings of this series and scored 6 runs total in 3 games. No good. Who are the main culprits? Here are a few of their starters and their OPS after the All Star Break:
Craig Biggio - 744 OPS
Morgan Ensberg - 734
Brad Ausmus - 532
Eric Munson - 429
Chris Burke - 710
But let's be honest - if your lineup is
Taveras
Biggio
Berkman
Huff
Scott
Ensberg
Everett
Ausmus
P
do you really expect to score many runs?
- Richard Justice thinks that we shouldn't blame the lack of offense on Ausmus or Everett because they are there for their defense. I'm so sick of the point of view that I don't know what to say anymore. The only way Ausmus could make up for his lack of offense in the 2nd half is to play multiple positions at the same time, throw every runner out (instead of his current 20%) and distract every hitter with comments about their wife / sister / dog. Instead, he just sucks.
- We released Preston Wilson and handed the starting LF job to Luke Scott. Wilson has indeed been really bad, hitting only .269 / .309 / 405 on the year, with only 9 HR. Scott has been hot, hitting .419 / .481 / .656, but let's not get too optimistic - he's a .276 career hitter in the minors. I think Scott would make a fine 4th OF in the majors - the fact that he's starting for us is a sad indictment of the current state of our offense. I do like releasing Wilson, though - why waste his time or ours?
- Brad Lidge blew another save two nights ago, giving up a solo HR to Matt Murton. After the game Garner said he was going to try a closer-by-committee approach for a while. Lidge still has a great strikeout rate (77 K, 53.2 IP) but he's been wild often and simply cannot locate his fastball - like Andy said, he rarely pitches inside and all too often leaves hittable fastballs over the middle of the plate. I still have hope that Lidge can figure things out, but maybe he needs a little less pressure on him all the time.
That's it for now - I want to start making posts with a few important points rather than rambling on. Here's to a fresh start.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
Still treading water... still alive. As of August 8, we are 53-58. That's five games under .500, with 6 teams ahead of us in the Wild-Card race. The good news? We're only 3.5 games out of the WC lead! The Reds and Dodgers are tied for the lead, but they're both only 57-55. How bad is the NL this year?!
So, we're coming home for a 9-game home stand. We've lost three straight series at home, but we face Pittsburgh, San Diego and Chicago — very beatable teams. The past two years, we've been absolutely unstoppable at home in the second half. Time to get that streak going again.
And to do it, we'll need to ride the young guns. I'm talking about Luke Scott, who has outplayed Preston Wilson and stolen his starting spot in left. He's only got two homers, but he pitchers cannot get him out. This year, in 62 ABs... marvel: .403/.456/.645. Yummy.
Oh, and how bout Mr. Willy T? Check out what he's done since the All-Star Break: .369/.408 /.477. Ok, so that's only 65 ABs, but still... the kid is coming on strong, and definitely deserves the recent starts in center.
Chris Burke and Preston Wilson, meanwhile, are struggling. Since the break: Burke, .633 OPS. Wilson, .552. Ick. Bench 'em.
Lamb has slowed a little since the break, but he's still seeing the ball really well, as is Aubrey Huff. They're both making contact and generally hitting the ball hard. I don't know what to make of Ensberg, but we'll need him if we want to make a run in August and September.
Come to think of it, our offense has been producing rather well the past two weeks. Everyone, that is, except for Everett and Ausmus. But that's old news.
Point is, if go 7-2 in this homestand, we're back at .500. That's goal No. 1. After that, we'll see. We have 11 games on the road at Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Here are the matchups for the weekday series vs. the Pirates
Tuesday, Aug. 8: Backe vs. Maholm
Wednesday, Aug. 9: Oswalt vs. Chacon
Thursday, Aug. 10: Clemens vs. Gorzelanny
Get 'em.
So, we're coming home for a 9-game home stand. We've lost three straight series at home, but we face Pittsburgh, San Diego and Chicago — very beatable teams. The past two years, we've been absolutely unstoppable at home in the second half. Time to get that streak going again.
And to do it, we'll need to ride the young guns. I'm talking about Luke Scott, who has outplayed Preston Wilson and stolen his starting spot in left. He's only got two homers, but he pitchers cannot get him out. This year, in 62 ABs... marvel: .403/.456/.645. Yummy.
Oh, and how bout Mr. Willy T? Check out what he's done since the All-Star Break: .369/.408 /.477. Ok, so that's only 65 ABs, but still... the kid is coming on strong, and definitely deserves the recent starts in center.
Chris Burke and Preston Wilson, meanwhile, are struggling. Since the break: Burke, .633 OPS. Wilson, .552. Ick. Bench 'em.
Lamb has slowed a little since the break, but he's still seeing the ball really well, as is Aubrey Huff. They're both making contact and generally hitting the ball hard. I don't know what to make of Ensberg, but we'll need him if we want to make a run in August and September.
Come to think of it, our offense has been producing rather well the past two weeks. Everyone, that is, except for Everett and Ausmus. But that's old news.
Point is, if go 7-2 in this homestand, we're back at .500. That's goal No. 1. After that, we'll see. We have 11 games on the road at Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Here are the matchups for the weekday series vs. the Pirates
Tuesday, Aug. 8: Backe vs. Maholm
Wednesday, Aug. 9: Oswalt vs. Chacon
Thursday, Aug. 10: Clemens vs. Gorzelanny
Get 'em.
Friday, August 04, 2006
I've got a few friends going to the Astros / Diamondbacks game in Phoenix tonight, so I'll be watching Roy Oswalt dominate. It looks like the Astros have basically treaded water since I was away; here are a few notes:
Astros Daily is giving up on the Astros playoff chances. I'm inclined to agree. Just because we've come back from the dead the last two years doesn't mean we can do it again, and we would have to leapfrog a TON of teams to get in. I just don't see it.
Craig Biggio, although he did have two home runs in Wednesday's game, is doing his usual 2nd-half collapse thing: .227 / .261 / .470 in the 2nd half
and he still can't hit away from Minute Maid: he has a 610 OPS on the road this year.
Willy Taveras has been getting starts at CF again, but he's still not getting on base (.313 OBP).
Morgan Ensberg is back, and has been starting at 3B with Aubrey Huff moving to RF. Lance should be back tonight, so we'll see what happens.
No big moves over the trading deadline, although we supposedly offered Roy Oswalt to different teams. I'm not sure why we would do that, and I hope we can sign Oswalt to a deal after the 2007 season.
Brad Ausmus really sucks again - since April his month-by-month OPS's are 664, 375, 477, 125.
Roger Clemens is 2-4 with a 2.09 ERA. Par for the course. You should have gone to a different team if you wanted to win, Rocket.
We have a lot of young pitching talent that is almost major league ready. Bucholz. Nieve. Albers. Hirsh. Chris Sampson. Ezequiel Astacio. Behind Roy Oswalt and maybe Brandon Backe, we could throw out an incredibly young, inexpensive, and pretty decent rotation next year. It should be a fierce spring training competition.
Speaking of minor league talent, here are a few updates
J.R. House, Catcher - After hitting .325 at AA, he's hitting .462 in 26 at-bats at AAA. Man, I hope he starts stealing some playing time from Ausmus / Munson next year.
Jason Hirsh - I'm not really sure how Matt Albers was called up instead of Hirsh, who has done nothing except put up a 2.13 ERA in 135 innings at AAA. His walk-to-strikeout ratio isn't great but he's only allowing a .195 batting average and only 5 homers all year! That's good.
Hunter Pence - The best hitting prospect in the organization has done well at AA, with a .291 / .354 / .563 line and 24 HR's in 416 AB's. He's still looking like a late 2007 callup at earliest though.
Jallen Peguero - I haven't heard of him before, but he's got a 0.70 ERA and 48 K's in only 38.2 IP at AA. Good relief prospect.
Matt Albers - He's not ready yet - the ERA is nice (2.17) but the BB/K ratio isn't great (47/95) and he's given up a lot of unearned runs. Needs more time.
Luke Scott and Jason Lane are back up; Taylor Bucholz is down. Bucholz just can't seem to stay away from the big inning - his secondary numbers are still ok. Luke Scott is swinging a hot bat and I still believe in Jason Lane, but he is 29 years old.
Astros Daily is giving up on the Astros playoff chances. I'm inclined to agree. Just because we've come back from the dead the last two years doesn't mean we can do it again, and we would have to leapfrog a TON of teams to get in. I just don't see it.
Craig Biggio, although he did have two home runs in Wednesday's game, is doing his usual 2nd-half collapse thing: .227 / .261 / .470 in the 2nd half
and he still can't hit away from Minute Maid: he has a 610 OPS on the road this year.
Willy Taveras has been getting starts at CF again, but he's still not getting on base (.313 OBP).
Morgan Ensberg is back, and has been starting at 3B with Aubrey Huff moving to RF. Lance should be back tonight, so we'll see what happens.
No big moves over the trading deadline, although we supposedly offered Roy Oswalt to different teams. I'm not sure why we would do that, and I hope we can sign Oswalt to a deal after the 2007 season.
Brad Ausmus really sucks again - since April his month-by-month OPS's are 664, 375, 477, 125.
Roger Clemens is 2-4 with a 2.09 ERA. Par for the course. You should have gone to a different team if you wanted to win, Rocket.
We have a lot of young pitching talent that is almost major league ready. Bucholz. Nieve. Albers. Hirsh. Chris Sampson. Ezequiel Astacio. Behind Roy Oswalt and maybe Brandon Backe, we could throw out an incredibly young, inexpensive, and pretty decent rotation next year. It should be a fierce spring training competition.
Speaking of minor league talent, here are a few updates
J.R. House, Catcher - After hitting .325 at AA, he's hitting .462 in 26 at-bats at AAA. Man, I hope he starts stealing some playing time from Ausmus / Munson next year.
Jason Hirsh - I'm not really sure how Matt Albers was called up instead of Hirsh, who has done nothing except put up a 2.13 ERA in 135 innings at AAA. His walk-to-strikeout ratio isn't great but he's only allowing a .195 batting average and only 5 homers all year! That's good.
Hunter Pence - The best hitting prospect in the organization has done well at AA, with a .291 / .354 / .563 line and 24 HR's in 416 AB's. He's still looking like a late 2007 callup at earliest though.
Jallen Peguero - I haven't heard of him before, but he's got a 0.70 ERA and 48 K's in only 38.2 IP at AA. Good relief prospect.
Matt Albers - He's not ready yet - the ERA is nice (2.17) but the BB/K ratio isn't great (47/95) and he's given up a lot of unearned runs. Needs more time.
Luke Scott and Jason Lane are back up; Taylor Bucholz is down. Bucholz just can't seem to stay away from the big inning - his secondary numbers are still ok. Luke Scott is swinging a hot bat and I still believe in Jason Lane, but he is 29 years old.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Some buzz about Miguel Tejada lately. There's been buzz before, and I think both teams' managements were inches away from a deal last off-season, but it didn't get done. I wanted it then, and I want it now. Here's why:
1) Tejada is awesome. He leads the Orioles in AVG, HR, RBI and R (.323/18/69/68). He is superb defensively, and supposedly is a great team leader in the dugout. Remember his days with the A's, when he'd be on the front row of the dugout, waving his teammates home and cheering like mad? We could use some of that. He won the 2002 MVP with his heart. Plus clutch hitting during Oakland's 20-game winning streak.
2) Adam Everett is the bane of my existence.
3) The trade pieces — specifically the prospects — aren't necessarily All-stars. Yes, it is very nice to have a plethora of talent in the farm system, but sometimes they don't pan out. Hunter Pence looks awesome right now, but it's not a sure thing that he'll slug in the majors, which Tejada has proven he can do. We have a ton of pitching prospects, so giving up one of: Nieve, Albers, Patton, Hirsh won't hurt us too bad. Don't know why they'd want Lidge (although he'd do well working with Mazzone there), but he is expendable.
4) The NL is just waiting for another team to emerge. The Mets are very good, and the Cardinals have Pujols and Carpenter. Thankfully, two other teams get into the playoffs, and we should realize how close we are from making it there. We're only 5 games out of the Wild Card, with a big series this week against the WC-leading Reds. If we win 2 of 3 against Cincy, and 2 of 3 against the D-Backs at home, we're 3 games under .500 and probably only 3 or 4 back of the Wild Card.
5) Here's why: 2B Biggio, CF Burke, RF Berkman, SS Tejada, LF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Ausmus. Holy crap.
1) Tejada is awesome. He leads the Orioles in AVG, HR, RBI and R (.323/18/69/68). He is superb defensively, and supposedly is a great team leader in the dugout. Remember his days with the A's, when he'd be on the front row of the dugout, waving his teammates home and cheering like mad? We could use some of that. He won the 2002 MVP with his heart. Plus clutch hitting during Oakland's 20-game winning streak.
2) Adam Everett is the bane of my existence.
3) The trade pieces — specifically the prospects — aren't necessarily All-stars. Yes, it is very nice to have a plethora of talent in the farm system, but sometimes they don't pan out. Hunter Pence looks awesome right now, but it's not a sure thing that he'll slug in the majors, which Tejada has proven he can do. We have a ton of pitching prospects, so giving up one of: Nieve, Albers, Patton, Hirsh won't hurt us too bad. Don't know why they'd want Lidge (although he'd do well working with Mazzone there), but he is expendable.
4) The NL is just waiting for another team to emerge. The Mets are very good, and the Cardinals have Pujols and Carpenter. Thankfully, two other teams get into the playoffs, and we should realize how close we are from making it there. We're only 5 games out of the Wild Card, with a big series this week against the WC-leading Reds. If we win 2 of 3 against Cincy, and 2 of 3 against the D-Backs at home, we're 3 games under .500 and probably only 3 or 4 back of the Wild Card.
5) Here's why: 2B Biggio, CF Burke, RF Berkman, SS Tejada, LF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Ausmus. Holy crap.
Monday, July 24, 2006
It's been a wild few weeks for me - I got back from an ultimate frisbee tourney in Chicago and a family vacation to the Galapagos a few days ago, and immediately found out I got a job and that an apartment that I had been looking at for a while was available. So today I went to NAU, chose an office, moved out of my place, filled out the application for the new place, and packed for a river trip that I leave on tomorrow. Whew. Let's talk some baseball:
First of all, the Aubrey Huff trade.
Astros get: 3B/1B/OF Aubrey Huff
Devil Rays get: SS Ben Zobrist, P Mitch Talbot
Big surprise here: I agree with Andy's earlier thoughts on the trade. Unfortunately, Huff can't replace Ausmus or Everett in the lineup. But he's a solid player, who has traditionally been better in the 2nd half, and the Astros are built (at least for this year) as a team that needs to go all out for the playoffs. Zobrist is a nice prospect, a SS who actually gets on base, but he hasn't shown too much power and management seems to love Adam Everett. Talbot isn't a big loss, with our pitching depth (more on that later). All in all, I like the trade. Huff is off to a slow start so far (.243 / .333 / .378), but give him a little time.
My only concern about the trade (and it's a fairly big one) is that we even think about trading Morgan Ensberg or cutting his playing time once he's off the DL. I know Ensberg is slumping, and he is 30 years old, so he's probably not going to improve, and he's streaky....but he has a career 864 OPS, including a 961 OPS at the Juice Box! He's also relatively cheap, solid defensively, and is absolutely the 2nd best offensive player on the team, and has been better than Berkman for fairly long stretches of time both last year and this year. He's also drawing walks like an absolute maching this year, so once he reverts back to his career batting average of .272, you're looking at an easy .400 OBP. In short, Ensberg is really, really good, and we should try to build the team around him, Berkman, and Oswalt for the next 2-4 years. If we trade him for Scott Linebrink, we suck.
A bunch of Rotoworld rumors involving the Astros lately:
We're interested in left-handed reliever Damaso Marte. Wow, what a surprise, we're looking for a lefty. What, John Franco, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller, and Wandy Rodriguez aren't good enough? Marte is actually pretty good, but he walks a lot of guys and Miller has actually been pretty decent this year at times, so I say just stick with him.
We're shopping Willy Taveras. Sweet! It's pretty apparent that he's not part of our long-term plans, which is fine, so we might as well try to deal him while teams remember his 2nd-place Rookie of the Year finish last year. Taveras isn't that bad - he's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and has shown the occasional ability to get on base. He'd make a fine 5th outfielder, but if we can get value in a trade, do it.
We might be shopping Preston Wilson (to the Yankees, who really need OF help). I like it a lot. Wilson is overrated, and we're certainly not going to sign him after this year (I hope), and with Berkman, Huff, Luke Scott, Jason Lane (at some point) all able to play corner OF, we should be ok there.
Like I said, the 2006 Astros are basically built for one last push: Pettitte and Clemens are probably gone next year, Biggio should start playing less once he gets to 3K hits, and a lot of our younger guys (Burke, Hirsh, Nieve) should start seeing a lot more playing time. Hell, Oswalt isn't even signed for next year - what would our rotation be without him? Yikes. But here's the trick - we're 9.5 back in the division and 5 back in the wild card, with 6 teams ahead of us. I know we've pulled this off in the past, but if something goes wrong (like Berkman injuring his groin yesterday), we shouldn't be afraid to have a fire sale and trade the vets. As much as I'd like to see this team make the playoffs, it's not too likely at this point.
Ok, I've gotta run, and I'll be out for a few weeks, but when I finally get back I promise to write more regularly and more interesting stuff. Later.
First of all, the Aubrey Huff trade.
Astros get: 3B/1B/OF Aubrey Huff
Devil Rays get: SS Ben Zobrist, P Mitch Talbot
Big surprise here: I agree with Andy's earlier thoughts on the trade. Unfortunately, Huff can't replace Ausmus or Everett in the lineup. But he's a solid player, who has traditionally been better in the 2nd half, and the Astros are built (at least for this year) as a team that needs to go all out for the playoffs. Zobrist is a nice prospect, a SS who actually gets on base, but he hasn't shown too much power and management seems to love Adam Everett. Talbot isn't a big loss, with our pitching depth (more on that later). All in all, I like the trade. Huff is off to a slow start so far (.243 / .333 / .378), but give him a little time.
My only concern about the trade (and it's a fairly big one) is that we even think about trading Morgan Ensberg or cutting his playing time once he's off the DL. I know Ensberg is slumping, and he is 30 years old, so he's probably not going to improve, and he's streaky....but he has a career 864 OPS, including a 961 OPS at the Juice Box! He's also relatively cheap, solid defensively, and is absolutely the 2nd best offensive player on the team, and has been better than Berkman for fairly long stretches of time both last year and this year. He's also drawing walks like an absolute maching this year, so once he reverts back to his career batting average of .272, you're looking at an easy .400 OBP. In short, Ensberg is really, really good, and we should try to build the team around him, Berkman, and Oswalt for the next 2-4 years. If we trade him for Scott Linebrink, we suck.
A bunch of Rotoworld rumors involving the Astros lately:
We're interested in left-handed reliever Damaso Marte. Wow, what a surprise, we're looking for a lefty. What, John Franco, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller, and Wandy Rodriguez aren't good enough? Marte is actually pretty good, but he walks a lot of guys and Miller has actually been pretty decent this year at times, so I say just stick with him.
We're shopping Willy Taveras. Sweet! It's pretty apparent that he's not part of our long-term plans, which is fine, so we might as well try to deal him while teams remember his 2nd-place Rookie of the Year finish last year. Taveras isn't that bad - he's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and has shown the occasional ability to get on base. He'd make a fine 5th outfielder, but if we can get value in a trade, do it.
We might be shopping Preston Wilson (to the Yankees, who really need OF help). I like it a lot. Wilson is overrated, and we're certainly not going to sign him after this year (I hope), and with Berkman, Huff, Luke Scott, Jason Lane (at some point) all able to play corner OF, we should be ok there.
Like I said, the 2006 Astros are basically built for one last push: Pettitte and Clemens are probably gone next year, Biggio should start playing less once he gets to 3K hits, and a lot of our younger guys (Burke, Hirsh, Nieve) should start seeing a lot more playing time. Hell, Oswalt isn't even signed for next year - what would our rotation be without him? Yikes. But here's the trick - we're 9.5 back in the division and 5 back in the wild card, with 6 teams ahead of us. I know we've pulled this off in the past, but if something goes wrong (like Berkman injuring his groin yesterday), we shouldn't be afraid to have a fire sale and trade the vets. As much as I'd like to see this team make the playoffs, it's not too likely at this point.
Ok, I've gotta run, and I'll be out for a few weeks, but when I finally get back I promise to write more regularly and more interesting stuff. Later.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Howdy everyone. I actually didn't watch the Home-Run Derby OR the All-Star Game. Frankly, I needed a break from baseball as much as the players did. Too many fantasy teams (once again), and too many crummy Astros defeats have left me somewhat burned on this whole national pasttime thing. But a few days off, and a few interesting moves by the Astros have gotten me right back into the swing of things. Here we go:
As Barstool pointed out, the Astros made several moves to try and revitalize the offense. First, we traded Ben Zobrist and Mitch Tablot (two decent prospects) to the Devil Rays for Aubrey Huff and cash. This is a great trade for us. Yes, Huff is in his last year before free agency, and he hasn't lived up to his 2003-04 potential over the last year and a half. But he has smacked the crap out of the ball recently, hitting 3 HR in his last 5 games (the latest was a 3-run shot to give the Astros a 5-1 win over the Marlins). So hopefully, he's found his swing and can put up a .850 OPS.
Huff is, if nothing else, a very good hitter, which is exactly what we need. Like Richard Justice said when we signed Preston Wilson: Forget where he's going to play or who he's going to take at-bats from, just having him on the team is a very good thing. Unfortunately, he doesn't replace Everett or Ausmus at the end of the lineup, but we'll get to that later.
Lane was optioned to Round Rock to make room for Huff. Like last year, Lane went through an extended slump, but he just never seemed to rebound from it. Just about every time I saw him at the plate or on the bases, he seemed to make dumb mental mistakes. He's not as bad as he is right now, but at 29, his time with the Astros might be coming to a close.
Ensberg to the DL. This move is about a month late. Ensberg has very obviously been bothered since he dove for a foul ball and landed awkwardly on his shoulder against Atlanta on June 9. Good timing at least, since Huff will move into the 3B spot full-time for the next two weeks.
Luke Scott was called up to replace Ensberg. I'm not sold on this move. Seems to me we could have just kept Lane in the majors and Scott at AAA and saved a couple of options. But hey, Scott will probably go back down once Ensberg plays again.
Brandon Backe is scheduled to pitch July 22, and it looks like Wandy will be sent to the pen, with Buchholz staying in the #5 spot. This is probably a good move — Wandy was awful in June and his two starts in July were not promising. Wandy has pretty much shown us his potential in the last year, and he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a major-league starter. Buchholz, on the other hand, has potential, and if nothing else, he'll be surrounded by Oswalt, Pettitte and Rocket.
Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte, Backe and Buchholz is a damn fine rotation. The lineup, even with Huff, needs help. The problem, as always, is the bottom of the order. Unless we make even more drastic changes, Ausmus and Everett aren't going anywhere. Here's my proposition: Have Burke start at SS twice a week, have Munson start at C twice a week, and have Wilson make some starts in CF. Burke's offense more than makes up for his lack of defense at short. And obviously, once we get a late lead, we can sub Everett in at SS and Willy T in CF. How's about this lineup?:
2B Biggio, SS Burke, LF Berkman, CF Wilson, RF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Munson
Those are clearly our best hitters. Obviously, this would be a disaster defensively, but we need some freakin' offense.
Clemens vs. the Marlins tonight. Go Rocket.
As Barstool pointed out, the Astros made several moves to try and revitalize the offense. First, we traded Ben Zobrist and Mitch Tablot (two decent prospects) to the Devil Rays for Aubrey Huff and cash. This is a great trade for us. Yes, Huff is in his last year before free agency, and he hasn't lived up to his 2003-04 potential over the last year and a half. But he has smacked the crap out of the ball recently, hitting 3 HR in his last 5 games (the latest was a 3-run shot to give the Astros a 5-1 win over the Marlins). So hopefully, he's found his swing and can put up a .850 OPS.
Huff is, if nothing else, a very good hitter, which is exactly what we need. Like Richard Justice said when we signed Preston Wilson: Forget where he's going to play or who he's going to take at-bats from, just having him on the team is a very good thing. Unfortunately, he doesn't replace Everett or Ausmus at the end of the lineup, but we'll get to that later.
Lane was optioned to Round Rock to make room for Huff. Like last year, Lane went through an extended slump, but he just never seemed to rebound from it. Just about every time I saw him at the plate or on the bases, he seemed to make dumb mental mistakes. He's not as bad as he is right now, but at 29, his time with the Astros might be coming to a close.
Ensberg to the DL. This move is about a month late. Ensberg has very obviously been bothered since he dove for a foul ball and landed awkwardly on his shoulder against Atlanta on June 9. Good timing at least, since Huff will move into the 3B spot full-time for the next two weeks.
Luke Scott was called up to replace Ensberg. I'm not sold on this move. Seems to me we could have just kept Lane in the majors and Scott at AAA and saved a couple of options. But hey, Scott will probably go back down once Ensberg plays again.
Brandon Backe is scheduled to pitch July 22, and it looks like Wandy will be sent to the pen, with Buchholz staying in the #5 spot. This is probably a good move — Wandy was awful in June and his two starts in July were not promising. Wandy has pretty much shown us his potential in the last year, and he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a major-league starter. Buchholz, on the other hand, has potential, and if nothing else, he'll be surrounded by Oswalt, Pettitte and Rocket.
Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte, Backe and Buchholz is a damn fine rotation. The lineup, even with Huff, needs help. The problem, as always, is the bottom of the order. Unless we make even more drastic changes, Ausmus and Everett aren't going anywhere. Here's my proposition: Have Burke start at SS twice a week, have Munson start at C twice a week, and have Wilson make some starts in CF. Burke's offense more than makes up for his lack of defense at short. And obviously, once we get a late lead, we can sub Everett in at SS and Willy T in CF. How's about this lineup?:
2B Biggio, SS Burke, LF Berkman, CF Wilson, RF Huff, 3B Ensberg, 1B Lamb, C Munson
Those are clearly our best hitters. Obviously, this would be a disaster defensively, but we need some freakin' offense.
Clemens vs. the Marlins tonight. Go Rocket.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
As you've probably read in the last post, Jack has split for the Galapagos Islands. He must be so desperate for a job that he's even looking in undeveloped islands for employment. Good luck to you, Jack, we're rooting for you!
Meanwhile, after mentioning Jason Lane in the last post guess what the Astros did? That's right, kids! They sent his under-performing posterior to the minors whilst making a trade for Aubrey Huff who is 30 years old, plays for the mighty Devil Rays, and is the kinda guy whom my mother would take one look at and say, "Eww! He a vitamin deficiency! Es jucky!" I don't know much about baseball but after looking at this trade it actually seems like a steal! We trade away two of our prospects for a 30 year old on the rapid decline and some cash for the Astros organization to spend on pleasing the fans (*cough*cough* free beer! *cough*cough*). After that 1 ER, 9 IP LOSS by the Amazing Oswalt, it's good to see that the 'Stros are going after the big hitters with a lot of upside. Perhaps when Jack comes back from the job hunt in the Galapagos he can enlighten us all as to if this trade was good or bad. I'm guessing it was marvelous cuz we got some fat cash along with a Tamba Bay Devil Ray SUPAHSTAH!!!
Anyone get a load of that World Cup? Or better yet, did anyone see that headbutt in high definition? I watched a clip of it when I was at my parents' house on their 60" SXRD (really good TV, fyi) and you can actually see the dude's chest cave in to the unforgiving onslaught that is Zizou's bald-is-beautiful skull. Did it deserve a red card? Yes. Did it wake us all up from watching exhausted Italians hold the line against Henry the Awesome (remember, it's French so it rhymes) and Ribery the Ugliest Soccer Player in World Cup History? You betcha. Out of 10, I rate this World Cup an 8. My complaints: Horrific refs and the typical American complaint...not enough GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOALS. Speaking of which, what's with ESPN's guys in the booth? I think people would get a little more excited about soccer if the commentators lost their friggin' minds whenever a goal was scored.
Did anyone see that Irish guy on ESPN predict that Italy would win from the beginning? Leave it to the Irish; they know how to rock (U2). Too bad the rest of the analysis on ESPN is looked down upon...
Enough about the winners! How bout them losers? According to my Mexican inside source (Hi Mom!) pretty much the entire country of Mexico knew that their team was going to underachieve. I found it funny, however, that the U.S. performance was touted as an absolute failure. Don't get me wrong! I completely agree! But usually we hear the talking heads say we lost and nobody cares. Perhaps we're finally seeing a change in the attitudes of this nations sports writers? Seriously, how long can those old farts deny the monstrocity that is futbol?! Superbowl is watched by 50 million...World Cup is worshipped by over a billion...yeah, talk about an isolationist attitude.
Bruce Arena blew it. Argue with me if you want, but the guys looked LOST out there that first match. The forwards were never on the same page and I couldn't help but feel that they really had no game plan going into those games. That's what I observed anyways...the rest of you should let us know what you thought about those games (reply, slaves!). And how bout those soccer megastars like David Beckham and Ronaldo saying they would like to play in America when they're done competing in the big boy leagues? Sounds awesome to me....the U.S. will become the Senior PGA of soccer! Where else in the world can so much cash be thrown at so old an athlete? Or at least traded for two minor leaguers....
Meanwhile, after mentioning Jason Lane in the last post guess what the Astros did? That's right, kids! They sent his under-performing posterior to the minors whilst making a trade for Aubrey Huff who is 30 years old, plays for the mighty Devil Rays, and is the kinda guy whom my mother would take one look at and say, "Eww! He a vitamin deficiency! Es jucky!" I don't know much about baseball but after looking at this trade it actually seems like a steal! We trade away two of our prospects for a 30 year old on the rapid decline and some cash for the Astros organization to spend on pleasing the fans (*cough*cough* free beer! *cough*cough*). After that 1 ER, 9 IP LOSS by the Amazing Oswalt, it's good to see that the 'Stros are going after the big hitters with a lot of upside. Perhaps when Jack comes back from the job hunt in the Galapagos he can enlighten us all as to if this trade was good or bad. I'm guessing it was marvelous cuz we got some fat cash along with a Tamba Bay Devil Ray SUPAHSTAH!!!
Anyone get a load of that World Cup? Or better yet, did anyone see that headbutt in high definition? I watched a clip of it when I was at my parents' house on their 60" SXRD (really good TV, fyi) and you can actually see the dude's chest cave in to the unforgiving onslaught that is Zizou's bald-is-beautiful skull. Did it deserve a red card? Yes. Did it wake us all up from watching exhausted Italians hold the line against Henry the Awesome (remember, it's French so it rhymes) and Ribery the Ugliest Soccer Player in World Cup History? You betcha. Out of 10, I rate this World Cup an 8. My complaints: Horrific refs and the typical American complaint...not enough GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOALS. Speaking of which, what's with ESPN's guys in the booth? I think people would get a little more excited about soccer if the commentators lost their friggin' minds whenever a goal was scored.
Did anyone see that Irish guy on ESPN predict that Italy would win from the beginning? Leave it to the Irish; they know how to rock (U2). Too bad the rest of the analysis on ESPN is looked down upon...
Enough about the winners! How bout them losers? According to my Mexican inside source (Hi Mom!) pretty much the entire country of Mexico knew that their team was going to underachieve. I found it funny, however, that the U.S. performance was touted as an absolute failure. Don't get me wrong! I completely agree! But usually we hear the talking heads say we lost and nobody cares. Perhaps we're finally seeing a change in the attitudes of this nations sports writers? Seriously, how long can those old farts deny the monstrocity that is futbol?! Superbowl is watched by 50 million...World Cup is worshipped by over a billion...yeah, talk about an isolationist attitude.
Bruce Arena blew it. Argue with me if you want, but the guys looked LOST out there that first match. The forwards were never on the same page and I couldn't help but feel that they really had no game plan going into those games. That's what I observed anyways...the rest of you should let us know what you thought about those games (reply, slaves!). And how bout those soccer megastars like David Beckham and Ronaldo saying they would like to play in America when they're done competing in the big boy leagues? Sounds awesome to me....the U.S. will become the Senior PGA of soccer! Where else in the world can so much cash be thrown at so old an athlete? Or at least traded for two minor leaguers....
Thursday, July 06, 2006
I made it back from my river trip - on the day I returned, after de-rigging the boat, I ran off to find a newspaper to see how the Astros had been doing. Their last 10 games: 2-8. Ugh. Then I looked up some box scores and saw how the White Sox and Tigers basically obliterated us. Luckily we ran into the Cubs who are pretty bad right now, although the mighty Sean Marshall managed to shut us out yesterday as Roy Oswalt gave up 1 ER in 9 IP and took the loss.
It looks like Mike Lamb has been hot since I left, as he's been getting the majority of starts at 1B with Lance shifting to RF. I guess I can quit stumping for Jason Lane; it just doesn't look like he's going to get much playing time. Waah. Lamb is hitting .332 / .379 / .533 for the season, so you can't argue with that too much.
Before I go any further, read Aaron Gleeman's wrap-up of the SABR (Society of American Baseball Research) conference right now.
I've been watching the World Cup, which is great. The Germany - Italy semifinal was amazing, the France - Portugal semi not so much. I like Italy to dominate in the finals - their defense (especially their captain, Canavarro, and their goalkeeper, Buffon) is unreal and they should generate enough offense to win. Italy 2-0.
I'm heading out again, to Chicago for an ultimate frisbee tournament and then to the Galapagos Islands on a vacation. Sorry about that, it's summertime. If anyone wants to make a post (JT? Barstool?), I'd owe you one. Until then, take care, cheer for the Astros, and have fun.
It looks like Mike Lamb has been hot since I left, as he's been getting the majority of starts at 1B with Lance shifting to RF. I guess I can quit stumping for Jason Lane; it just doesn't look like he's going to get much playing time. Waah. Lamb is hitting .332 / .379 / .533 for the season, so you can't argue with that too much.
Before I go any further, read Aaron Gleeman's wrap-up of the SABR (Society of American Baseball Research) conference right now.
I've been watching the World Cup, which is great. The Germany - Italy semifinal was amazing, the France - Portugal semi not so much. I like Italy to dominate in the finals - their defense (especially their captain, Canavarro, and their goalkeeper, Buffon) is unreal and they should generate enough offense to win. Italy 2-0.
I'm heading out again, to Chicago for an ultimate frisbee tournament and then to the Galapagos Islands on a vacation. Sorry about that, it's summertime. If anyone wants to make a post (JT? Barstool?), I'd owe you one. Until then, take care, cheer for the Astros, and have fun.
Friday, June 23, 2006
Well, Clemens lost to Francisco Liriano, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. Roger had a tough 3rd inning, throwing 30+ pitches, but other than that, I thought he looked fine - just a little rusty. We start a series with the White Sox today, who have won the last 3 games against the Cardinals by scoring 20 runs, 13 runs, and 1 run (on 1 hit!) They're hot. Let's hope we can win a close game or two this time around, as opposed to the World Series last year. I'm going to be on the river for the next week, so Andy, it's all you, buddy.
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Astros Notebook
The big news today is Roger Clemens makes his Astros return against Francisco Liriano (who was 1 year old when Clemens made his first MLB start) and the Twins tonight. Clemens by himself won't automatically make us a great team, but if he can get his good buddy Andy Pettitte back on track, get the fans fired up, and pitches great, that will work.
We're making room for Clemens by optioning Chris Sampson to AAA, moving Fernando Nieve to the bullpen, and keeping Taylor Buccholz as the 5th starter. Garner's reasoning for the Nieve / Buchholz decision is that Nieve is better suited to be a reliever than Buchholz. Perhaps this is because he's a better pitcher in general:
Nieve, 2006: 65 IP, 4.71 ERA, 20 BB / 42 K
Nieve, June 2006: 18 IP, 3.00 ERA
Buchholz, 2006: 77.1 IP, 5.82 ERA, 19 BB / 47 K
Buchholz, June 2006: 19 IP, 6.63 ERA
Buccholz has had some excellent starts in the majors but he's also had some terrible ones. He's given up 8 ER or more in 4 different games!
Oh well. It probably doesn't matter that much, since Buccholz will be sent down when Brandon Backe returns. Still, I think Nieve is a better pitcher than Buchholz, for 2006 and beyond.
There has been some talk on Astros message boards about how badly Morgan Ensberg is slumping, etc. I mean, my god, he's only batting .249!
He also leads the team with 48 walks, and is 3rd to Chris Burke and Lance Berkman with a .381 OBP, and is 2nd to Berkman with a .541 SLG.
If his elbow is still bothering him, that's one thing, and we should let him rest. But to say we should bench him because he's not helping the club? Ridiculous.
The U.S. was bounced out of World Cup by a 2-1 loss to Ghana today. I'm disappointed, sure, but to be honest this wasn't a surprising result - Italy and the Czech Republic are both great teams, and Ghana is the best team in Africa. This was a brutal group to get out of. Expect better things in 2010.
One of the free agents that I wanted the Astros to go after this winter was Jason Johnson. Well, he was just released by the Indians after a 5.96 ERA in 14 starts. Johnson's main problem was that batters were hitting .341 off him, which is unlikely to continue - he's allowed a .282 batting average for his career. The Red Sox got him for cash and a PTBNL. I still think he can be a decent pitcher for the right team. He's getting an unbelievable number of groundballs this year, so maybe he just needs better infield defense.
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