Matthew Reed pointed out that the Ramon Hernandez signing is now official: 4 years, 27.5 million from the Orioles. I guess they'll be trying to move Javy Lopez or maybe mix him in at DH / 1B? Either way, this is a good signing for the O's, though it would be a lot better if it were something like 3 years / 21 million. That extra year for a catcher who will be 33 is dangerous. Hernandez has hit in pitcher's parks his entire career (Oakland, San Diego), has truly good defensive statistics (as opposed to the unprovable 'he handles a staff well' Ausmus nonsense), and has been durable (and hit well after his wrist injury last year). I probably would have given Hernandez this exact same contract for the Astros if I knew that he would take it. It looks like we may have to sre-sign Ausmus - who else is there?

Ever since the Rangers traded Alfonso Soriano to the Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge, and a PTBNL (which is an absolute steal, because Soriano has sucked away from Texas, is poor defensively, and is expensive), there have been rumors regarding their outfielders. As of right now, they have Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge (yep, two r's), David Dellucci, Laynce Nix, and Gary Matthews Jr. They're going to trade a few of those guys, and it looks like Kevin Mench is drawing a lot of interest from teams, including the Astros.

Let's take a look at Mench's career stats:

Home: .286 / .356 / .505, 92 XBH, 72 BB
Away: .256 / .310 / .461, 79 XBH, 52 BB

Those away numbers aren't quite as attractice, are they? I don't mean to say Mench isn't a decent player - he'll be 28 to start the '06 season, and still has one more year of arbitration, so he won't break the bank. But he is partly a product of his home field.

I'd be more interested in Brad Wilkerson or Terrmel Sledge, for different reasons:

Wilkerson is a walkin' fool. 89, 104, and 84 walks the last three years. He has a career .365 OBP (and with Biggio, Lane, and Taveras in the line-up, we need some OBP from somebody), and a career 817 OPS. He's bettre defensively than Mench (he's played games in CF). It looks like he had a down year last year because he only had 11 home runs, but he had 42 doubles and 9 tripled in a huge home park, and part of that was due to an ugly 2nd half. Oh, and he even hits lefties well (career .837 OPS). The only bad news about Wilkerson is he earned 3.5 million last year compared to Mench's 345,000. He's worth it if he keeps drawing 80 walks a year, though. Just make him stop running (45 SB, 38 CS).

Ah, Terrmel Sledge. He's basically a poor man's Jacque Jones with more patience and less defense. He only got 37 AB's in the majors last year but he had a solid year in '04: (.269 / .336 / .462, 41 XBH, 40 BB in 398 AB). He's 28, just like Mench and Wilkerson. He rips on righties (career 832 OPS) and is still 2 years away from arbitration. He can't hit lefties but he and Chris Burke would make a kick-ass platoon in LF. Unfortunately, it might take Burke to get Sledge.

I'd rank them like this:

1. Sledge (cheap for at least 2 more years, poor man's Jacque Jones)
2. Wilkerson (tons of walks, the most expensive)
3. Mench (cheap for 1 more year, not that great away from Texas)

Keep talking to people, Purpura!

Astros news:

The Astros sign OP to a 2 year / 1.9 million deal. Meh. I don't much care for it. Yeah, Palmeiro is all right - he plays solid defense, works counts, and has put up OBP's of .336, .344, and .341 the last three years, which aren't terrible for a bench playear (though he has no power). But he's also 37 and we gave him a two year deal? Where does that leave Luke Scott? It's not a terrible signing, but if we give Ausmus this exact same deal I'll be pissed.

Astros rumors:

Taveras + ?to the D-Backs for Javier Vazquez

Scott Barzilla is fighting the good fight on the Astros Daily message boards for this trade. Go check them out if you want more info. Here's my take:

Taveras is a young CF who is likely to improve, but he just put up a .666 OPS with 25 walks and 20 extra base hits in 592 AB's. He has value since he's cheap and plays good defense and steals bases at a decent clip, but he's not that great.

Javier Vazquez has demanded a trade from the D-Backs, and he's set to make 15 million over the next 2 years. His numbers don't look that great (4.91 ERA with the Yankees last year, 4.42 ERA with the D-Backs this year), but he's pitched in some tough parks and his BB / K ratio (a great indicator of future success) is superb. He is a bit of a flyball pitcher, so he'll give up his share of HR's at Minute Maid, but the guy is only 29 years old, extremely durable, and has a career BB/ K ratio of almost 3.5. If we did this trade without throwing in too much else, I would like it quite a bit. A front three of Oswalt / Pettitte / Vazquez would be really nice.

There have been rumors that a few teams have been interested in Adam Everett, but we've told them forget it. WHY??? At least listen to what they're offering!!

Miguel Tejada wants out of Baltimore. I don't think they're going to trade him, but if he wants out, look into it. He's making 48 million the next 4 years but he'd be a huge upgrade over Everett at SS. I don't see it though.

More later, gotta run.

The first truly good move by Tim Purpura:

Astros declined to offer arbitration to infielder Jose Vizcaino.
We're surprised the Astros couldn't work anything out with Vizcaino, who had been with the club the last five years. He'll land a reserve job elsewhere. The Astros said they haven't decided whether to offer arbitration to Brad Ausmus or Orlando Palmeiro. Negotations are ongoing. -Rotoworld

WOOHOO!!!

This just in:

Mark Sweeney has agreed to a two-year, $1.8 million contract with the Giants, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.The Giants could platoon Sweeney and Lance Niekro at first base and get pretty reasonable production, but they'll probably keep looking for another left-handed-hitting first baseman, allowing Sweeney to be used primarily as a pinch-hitter. Sweeney hit .294/.395/.466 in 221 AB for the Padres last season.

And there goes another guy that I would have liked to have signed. 2 year / 1.8 million for a guy that has put up .377 and .395 OBP's the last two years. By contrast, Mike Lamb has put .356 and .284 OBP's the last two years for a similar salary. Hell, offer Sweeney the same contract but remind him that Jeff Bagwell is going to need plenty of time off, so he'll start more here! Gah.

Let's get right to the Astros moves for today.

Non-Move 1:

Braves acquired RHP Lance Cormier and RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Diamondbacks catchers Johnny Estrada. Cormier and Villarreal were about the last relievers we would have selected from the Arizona pen, but the Braves deserve some benefit of the doubt in cases like these. Cormier, 25, had a 5.11 ERA in 79 1/3 IP last season. His offspeed pitches are pretty good, but he only works at 90-91 mph and he doesn't have great command. He's just a middle reliever. Villarreal had a very promising rookie season as a 21-year-old in 2003, but after pitching 98 innings in one start and 85 relief appearances, he started suffering from arm problems and he's failed to contribute the last two seasons. He's already arbitration eligible, making him expendable in Arizona. We're not especially optimistic that he'll ever bounce back. - Rotoworld

So the Diamondbacks traded two mediocre young relievers (one of whom has been hurt the last two years) to the Braves for Johnny Estrada?? There goes a 29-year old catcher who had a .828 OPS in '04 who we could have had for cheap for the next several years. Hell, if the Braves took those guys, I guarantee they would have taken Dan Wheeler or Wandy Rodriguez + Mike Burns or some deal along those lines. What a disappointment. I never heard that we were even interested in Estrada. I just don't get it.

Move 2:

ESPNews is reporting that the Astros have told Roger Clemens they won't offer him arbitration.This rules out the possibility of him rejoining the Astros before May 1. Clemens is said to be leaning toward retirement, but he still wants to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Perhaps this opens the door for Clemens to join the Yankees, Rangers or Red Sox on a one-year deal or maybe he'll re-sign with the Astros later on. The Astros now become much bigger players in free agency and trade talks. - Rotoworld

I understand you don't want to offer Clemens a huge one-year contract, have him accept it, and then he gets hurt or decides he's going to retire. But couldn't we just offer him something like 1 year / 10 million (he's worth that in ticket sales / advertisements alone) and if Clemens rejects it then at least we get a draft pick if he decides to sign with another team. Moving on without Clemens? Fine. Not getting at least a draft pick for him if he goes elsewhere? Stupid.

A possible silver lining is that we use the money from the Clemens deal and get in on signing Ramon Hernandez. Too bad he's a Scott Boras client, so we'll probably have to go to at least 3 years / 24 million. I'd do that or possibly a bit more, though - we have NO good catching prospects, and Hernandez has had 3 good years in a row.

I'll talk about some of the other moves later (Juan Pierre to the Cubs, Mark Loretta to the Red Sox, etc.), but for now let's se some action, Purpura. Looks like you have a little more leeway now. Oh, and Austin Kearns is probably off the trade block now since Sean Casey is going to the Pirates (so the Reds will likely move Adam Dunn to 1st base).

Go Tim go!

There are a lot of Winter Meeting rumors out there right now. It sure if fun talking about them, but they're ultimately just rumors. Case in point - I said it looked like the Cardinals had Burnett signed, but now it looks like it's the Blue Jays for 5/55. 102 million combined on B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett? At least they both have two-initial first names.

The D-Backs have supposedly shown interest in Brad Ausmus, to which I say: YES!! The more teams that show interest in him, the higher his price goes, and the less likely it becomes that we sign him. Or maybe we give him a 2 year / 7 million dollar deal and I cry. Either way.

Other players that might be available in trades that I'd be interested in: Bobby Abreu, Austin Kearns, Jason LaRue, Johnny Estrada. I'd especially like to give Kearns a try - he had a rough year last year, but he's a 25 year old with a career .821 OPS.

Players that the Astros could trade that either I wouldn't mind trading or their current trade value is at its peak: Brandon Backe, Dan Wheeler, Adam Everett, Wandy Rodriguez.

Backe picks it up in the playoffs, but as Scott Barzilla as pointed out, ALL his rate stats are below league average. He simply cannot be a decent pitcher with his current walk rate and K rate.

Dan Wheeler's trade value could not possibly be any higher. He has to come back to Earth eventually.

Adam Everett is overrated - his counting stats (11 HR, 54 RBI) obscure his .654 OPS. Good defense, but we can do better.

Wandy Rodriguez is actually in similar to Jeriome Robertson from a few years back - superficially good record (10-10 as a #5 starter) despite an ugly ERA (5.53, 1.46 WHIP). Deal him.

Backe for Austin Kearns and Dan Wheeler for Estrada - you can do it, Purpura!

One of the main misconceptions with Moneyball is that it's all about on-base percentage (OBP). In fact, the main idea presented in the book was the idea that the best way to have success in baseball is to take advantages of qualities that the market undervalues. At the time that the Oakland A's were putting a mini-dynasty together, those qualities were on-base percentage. However, they've adapted. Last year they were 14th in the majors in OBP, yet they still won 88 games despite injuries to Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, and Octavio Dotel. How? It's too general to say "pitching and defense", but that's in part how they did it: with a pitching staff built to not allow home runss and a truly outstanding defense to take care of anything put in play (they finished 2nd in baseball in Defensive Efficiency, behind the White Sox.)

Why am I talking about this? Well, what is undervalued in the baseball market these days? OBP? Nah. Defense? Maybe. Starting pitching? Never. I do like what the Cardinals have done, though - assemble one ace and back him up with a bunch of guys that can give you 4.00 to 4.50 ERAs. I still think a guy like Jason Johnson could do that for us. But truthfully, so far this offseason, very little is being undervalued. In fact, of all the signings made so far, I would have made exactly one (Brian Giles, 3 years, 30 million.) It looks like A.J. Burnett (career 3.73 ERA) is about to get 5 years / 50 million from the Cards. It seems like all the big-name free agents are getting huge deals, and even some mediocre players (Hector Carrasco, Kyle Farnsworth, etc.) are getting fairly big deals. What to do?

If I'm Tim Purpura, I don't make any big moves. Sign a 4th OF if you like, (Matt Lawton, Rondell White if he's healthy, Todd Hollandsworth, Mark Sweeney) in case Bagwell can't play and Berkman has to move to 1st. Don't re-sign Viz, Ausmus, or Palmeiro - let Chris Burke and Luke Scott be the backup OF's if you don't sign anyone. Bruntlett can take over Viz's utility spot. And only sign Ausmus if Clemens gives you an absolute ultimatum that he won't come back without him. Look to make trades (the Braves supposedly offered Johnny Estrada to the D-Rays for Julio Lugo. Show interest in Estrada! The Phillies might be looking to move Jason Michaels...etc.) Small, smart moves, and at least look into possible trades.

I'm doing a presentation on baseball statistics (a.k.a 'Sabermetrics') in my statistical theory class on Wednesday. I'm going to talk about how it got started (if you're interested, check out 'The Numbers Game' by Alan Schwarz), how I got into it, and new developments recently. It should be fun.

Astros news:

Houston re-signed Russ Springer for 2006. I've read he's making $750,000, but it hasn't been confirmed. Springer was better than advertised last year. His 4.73 ERA wasn't pretty, but a 1.19 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings sure is. He's 37, so let's not expect any miracles. The price is decent, although we could have saved half a million by calling up a rookie like Hirsh or Nieve. Still, it might be in our best interest to keep those two in the minors for another year.

Luke Scott is Barry Bonds' cousin. He's batting .439 / .536 / .930 in 57 at-bats in Venezuela. And he's playing centerfield. Intersting…

The D-Backs have an interest acquiring Brad Ausmus. Whatever. If anything, this is good news. It might drive his price out of our range.

Other intersting trades and signings:

• Giles re-signs with San Diego. I didn't think we had much of a shot at him. We'd have trouble playing Lane, Berkman, Bagwell and Giles, and we couldn't afford him. But props to a guy who takes a significant pay cut to play where he wants to.

• Hector Carrasco to the Angels for two years, $6 million. It's looking like Pual Byrd has a 3-year, $20 million offer on the table from some mystery team. I can tell you who it isn't: the Astros.

• Tom Gordon to the Phillies for 3 years, $18 million. He's a lot cheaper than Billy the Kid, although three years to a 38-year-old is about as secure as asking a little old lady to watch your stuff while you go break a twenty.

• Kyle Farnsworth to the Yankees for 3 years, $17 million. This for a guy who put up a 4.72 ERA in 2004 (Not to mention his two fantastic innings in NLDS Game Four)? Pass.

• Tim Worrell back to the Giants for 2 years, $4 million. Not

• Luis Castillo to the Twins for prospects. One, Travis Bowyer, is decent. Ninety-six strikeouts in 74 innings decent. He might close soon. Castillo will help the Twins, but unless Morneau and Hunter return to form and the Twinkies find another pitcher besides Santana, it won't be enough

• Manny, Abreu, LoDuca, Benson, Soriano, Pavano, Bradley, Blalock, Pierre and Jason Michaels are staying put. For now.

• Millwood, Burnett, Byrd, The Big Hurt, Nomar, Hoffman, Morris, Molina and Hernandez are still available...

This, from Baseball Insider:

"Houston's rising salary structure has prompted Purpura to explore trades rather than free-agent signings as a possible way to upgrade the Astros' offense. Baseball sources told ESPN.com the Astros have expressed interest in Texas outfielder Kevin Mench and Philadelphia's Jason Michaels, but backed off when the Rangers and Phillies asked for starter Brandon Backe in return. Houston would be more receptive to trading pitchers Ezequiel Astacio or Wandy Rodriguez for a hitter.

The Astros are working to retain backup outfielder Orlando Palmeiro and catcher Brad Ausmus, who has a choice of returning to Houston or signing with San Diego."

This is all good news. Not great, but good. It's good to see that Purpura is looking into available players, trying to cash in on second-tier players for bargain deals. But given our status and roster, I wouldn't give up Backe for Michaels, though it'd be tough to say no. Palmeiro would be fine as a fifth oufielder again, so long as he doesn't block Luke Scott. The more I read about him, the more I like Luke Scott. I like saying Luke Scott.

The Reds are still noncommital on LaRue. What could it take to snatch him? A pitching prospect, perhaps? Maybe Dunn and LaRue for Lane, Burke and Nieve? Looks like an even trade to me.

The White Sox signed Paul Konerko today: 5 years / 60 million. Konerko is not really a great player, but he's been healthy so his RBI totals look nice. He's not really a 12 million / year kind of player, but he's popular in Chicago and there weren't any other great options available. This almost certainly means the end of Frank Thomas as a White Sox. If you have some spare time, check out his career stats. Don't let your jaw hit the floor, particulary his '94 year. He is a 1st ball Hall of Famer. Anyway, a reasonable move for the White Sox to make. 60 million is a lot of money but I'd rather spend it on Konerko than on a guy like B.J. Ryan.

Speaking of 1st baseman, a topic that I haven't really addressed is the Astros' need for a 1st baseman. Obviously this comes down to whether or not Jeff Bagwell can play in '06, but I'm willing to bet we won't know for sure if he can play the field until near spring training, and by then most of the decent 1B's out there will be come. We don't need a guy like Konerko or Delgado, but a solid backup who could definitely start and do fine would fit the bill. In other words, someone better than Mike Lamb, who has his uses but I think is much better suited as an off-the-bench bat than starting 50/100 games at 1B. Let's take a look at what's out there, keeping in mind that whoever we sign needs to able to start if (when?) Bagwell gets hurt or needs time off (and we should give him and Biggio extra time off, hopefully):

Kevin Millar - hasn't hit at all away from Fenway. Pass.

Erubiel Durazo - I like it. Was injured last year, so he might have fallen off the radar a bit, but check out his OPS the 3 years before: 944, 804, 919. He's played in the NL, so he can field at 1B. He's older than you think (30), and he made 4.7 million this year, but he'd probably be willing to sign a deal with incentives - maybe a base salary of 2 million with a chance to get up to 6 million if he does well?

Travis Lee - actually not as bad as you think. A not-terrible OPS (757 last year, 751 career) and what is generally acknowledged as one the best gloves in the game. Think the anti-Lamb (some patience, little power, great glove). Worth 1 year / 1 million (he made 1.3 million last year).

Eduardo Perez - I think he had a bit of a career year last year, and he can't hit righties. He and Lamb would make an interesting platoon if Bagwell got hurt, though.

Olmedo Saenz - Too old, and he doesn't really do it for me.

Mark Sweeney - He's always been a pinch-hitting specialist, but he's been solid the last two years. Thumbs up.

J.T. Snow - Nah.

Frank Thomas - can't field.

I like Durazo, Sweeney, Perez, and Lee the best, in that order. Durazo in particular would fit in just fine if Bagwell went down - think Berkman / Ensberg / Lane / Durazo. Not bad. Gotta run.

From the Chronicle:

The Astros have started exchanging offers with their own free agents, including catcher Brad Ausmus, who along with free-agent pitcher Roger Clemens are among the Astros' biggest priorities this offseason.
Ausmus, who will turn 37 in April, hit .258 with three home runs and 47 RBIs in his fifth consecutive season as the club's regular starting catcher.
"We talked a couple of times on numbers, and we certainly don't have an insurmountable gap between us," Ausmus said.

Ick. I know, I know, I've said it before, but re-signing a 37-year old catcher with no power and a declining arm? The silver lining, I suppose, is that he might convince Clemens to come back, but even if we get both Ausmus + Clemens, I hope we at least play Quintero more often (maybe twice a week?) Even then, an Ausmus / Quintero platoon has an excellent chance of giving us the worst offense in baseball at the position. And I've read that Ausmus wants a multi-year deal. Please, please, please, for the love of God, NO.

Another great Scott Barzilla article is up at Astros Daily. This one talks about the Astros plans for 2nd base this coming year. Scott gets right to the point:

Craig Biggio is the Astros second baseman in 2006 and will be for as long as he wants to be.

This is absolutely true. And he certainly looks like he will want to be at least until he gets to 3,000 hits (probably early 2007). Having Biggio as our starting 2nd baseman is not a bad thing by itself, but he's blocking our top offensive prospect Chris Burke, who struggled early last year, but came back to hit .270 / .335 / .446 in the 2nd half, while Biggio really struggled in the 2nd half. The best solution, in my opinion, would be to give Biggo more time off early in the year so he doesn't collapse in the 2nd half. This is easy to do - just give Burke a start or two a week. Find him some playing time elsewhere (LF, maybe SS) also, and we should be able to get him to 300/400 AB's easy. Just don't let him rot.

Winter meetings start on Dec. 5, I believe, so hopefully there will be some moves to write about pretty soon.

More crazy signings the last few days:

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays, 5 years / 47 million
Billy Wagner, Mets, 4 years / 43 million

Look, I don't care how good your closer is, he's only going to pitch 70-90 innings a year. And a combined 90 million is a goddamn lot to spend on that. Wagner's elbow could explode. Ryan could fall back to earth. I just don't know. I hope we don't give Brad Lidge anything close to these deals eventually. I'd rather trade him.

Esteban Loaiza, A's, 3 years / 21 million

An interesting move for the A's - I've read that they would now like to move Barry Zito and get some kick-ass prospects in return. If so, wouldn't it be fitting if next year was the year they finally won a playoff series - without the Original Big 3 (Hudson, Zito, Mulder)? I'm a big fan of Billy Beane's (surprise, surprise, a stats grad student likes the Moneyball GM), particularly his willingness to trade anybody to keep his team competitive every year with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. To be fair, this signing does cost the A's their 1st round draft pick, but with closers getting 40 million, signing Loaizia to 7m / year seems ok to me. His road stats away from RFK were iffy last year, but the A's play in a pretty good pitcher's park also (huge foul territory, good defensive CF in Kotsay, lotsa room in the OF), so he should be ok.

Kenji Johjima, Mariners, 3 years / 16.5 million

This is an old one that I missed. Big thumbs up to the Mariners. I think Johjima has by far the best upside of the FA catchers, including Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina. He is 30 years old, but he should be solid. His numbers in Japan have been ridiculous, but Baseball Prospectus did a little research and his translated stats still look excellent (around .280 / .360 / .450 or so, with good defense).

The Astros haven't done much at all; I'm starting to get nervous that Clemens + Ausmus will do to us this year what Beltran did to us last year. Andy and I talked about the Astros a lot on our 16 hour drive back to Texas so he could start his new job (today was his first day), and my main point was this:

Tim Purpura needs to make a move that shows me something. It doesn't have to be a huge move. I like the fact that he has confidence in our prospects (Taveras, Lane, Astacio, Scott, Burke, etc.), but so far his only notable new Astro signings have been John Franco and Turk Wendell. You don't need to sign Garciaparra to a huge deal, Tim, but some small moves (signing Chris Hammond to a short deal, trading for Estrada, signing Jacque Jones) would go a long way to me thinking of you as a top GM.

Wow - a lot of big-name moves recently. Let's talk about them:

Phillies get:
Aaron Rowand
2 pitching prospects

White Sox get:
Jim Thome
Cash

I really like this trade for the Phillies. They desperately needed to unload Thome and his massive contract (he's still due a ton of money - maybe 60 million over the next 4 years or so?) so they could play Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard, and in exchange for getting rid of their millstone, they pick up an excellent defensive CF in Aaron Rowand who struggled offensively this year but is only 28 years old. Oh, and he's not making much money. The two pitching prospects are just a bonus for the Phillies. Great move for them.

I don't understand this trade for the White Sox. Does it signal that they won't be re-signing Konerko? Because Jim Thome and Frank Thomas would be the most expensive DH platoon ever. Maybe they'll be trading Thomas? I don't know. Strange move. And a lot hinges on whether Thome can get back to his '01-'04 form.

Mets get:
Carlos Delgado

Marlins get:
Mike Jacobs
Yusmeiro Petit

And the Marlins start their 3rd fire sale in the last 8 years or so. Delgado is due a bunch of money over the next 3 (or is it 2?) years, but the Mets need a 1B. The Marlins pick up an excellent pitching prosepct in Petit; it just seems strange that they would become sellers right now. I thought they had an excellent team last year, but instead it looks like they're going to trade Beckett / Lowell / Delgado, and start re-building again. Weird.

As for the Mets, they're still looking to sign a catcher (probably Molina) and I've heard they might trade for Soriano, so they're not done yet. A middle of the order of Beltran / Delgado / David Wright / Floyd is intimidating, though.

Red Sox reportedly get:
Josh Beckett
Mike Lowell

Marlins get:
Hanley Ramirez
Anibal Sanchez
1 other pitching prospect

I don't think the Red Sox will keep Lowell; if this trade goes through I bet he gets traded again. Beckett, however, they will keep, unless his shoulder is still bothering him. He's also got blister problems, but when he's healthy, he's one of the top 10 young starting pitchers in baseball, maybe higher than that. They give up a lot to get him (Ramirez is a good shortstop prospect, and Sanchez is an excellent - though fragile - pitching prospect), but there is no such thing as a can't miss prospect and Beckett has shown he can get done when he's healthy. I like it for the Red Sox, especially if they can get something reasonably useful for Lowell when they trade him and start Kevin Youkilis at 3rd.

For the Marlins, if you're going to rebuild, you might as well go all the way, and this trade lets them move Cabrera back to 3rd and play one of their prospects in LF / RF.

That's all I have time for now, and those are the big deals. Apparently the Cubs like throwing gobs of money at slightly above-average relievers.

A neat little observation over at U.S.S. Mariner:

"One of the neat little things I’ve discovered recently that I’m shocked I didn’t know earlier is that on a team basis, runs scored are basically equal to team OPS. Seriously, it’s that simple. If you have a .750 OPS, you’ll score somewhere in the neighborhood of 750 runs. It’s not exactly 1:1 (the actual factor for 2005 was 99.2), but it’s darn close. How close? Last year, the M’s had a .703 OPS and scored 699 runs. That’s pinpoint accuracy from what should be a rough tool. And, it’s right for every team in baseball within 10 percent. The other factors besides OPS that go into run scoring (baserunning, clutch hitting, random luck) account for 10 percent variance on either side. So, this hypothetical .750 OPS team would be expected to score 750 runs, with the actual range being 675-825. We think they’ll score around 750, but we know they won’t score less than 675 or more than 825. It might seem like a big range, but dealing with realms of possibility rather than trying to predict what will happen is a much better way to get an actual view of likely outcomes."

Let's test this with the NL Central:

Cards, 805 runs, .762 OPS
Astros, 693, .730
Cubs, 703, .764
Brewers, 726, .754
Reds, 820, .785
Pirates, 680, .723

Well, it's not that close, but if you run a test for linear regression on that data, you get a correlation coefficient of 0.66. This means that 66% of the variation in team's runs scored can be 'explained' by differences in team OPS. Kinda wordy, but here's the short of it - OPS is an excellent predictor of runs scored. I admit that it's not as great a predictor as I thought (at least for the NL Central - I might run the data for all of baseball later), but it's still probably the best we have.

Kinda neat, huh? With that in mind, let's look at a projected '06 Astros lineup and my best guess at their OPS:

The No-Moves Team:

Ausmus - .650
Bagwell - .800
Biggio - .750
Everett - .700
Ensberg - . 900
Lane - .850
Taveras - .700
Berkman - .900
Pitcher - .400

Team OPS (I know this ignores the bench, but let's go with it for now): .739

I think those projections are reasonable; obviously, Bagwell is the hard one to predict, but I'm calling for Ensberg and Berkman to still be excellent, Lane to improve, and Ausmus / Everett / Taveras to all still pretty much suck.

The Trade-for-Estrada and sign Nomar-to-a-short-deal Team:

Estrada - .750
Bagwell - .800
Biggio - .750
Nomah - .800
Ensberg - .900
Lane - .850
Taveras -.700
Berkman -.900
Pitcher - .400

Mmm. We're just a trade for Estrada and a 2 year / 12 million dollar deal to Nomar away from a team OPS of .761. This might not seem like a huge difference, but it could be, particularly since our pitching cannot possibly be as good as last year's. 22 more runs Anyway, something to think about. This lineup is also much more balanced, with no Ausmus / Everett / P to kill rallies like last year.

Oh, and I don't understand why we let the Reds claim Mike Burns off waivers. That's two guys we lost this year(Todd Self and Burns) that would have helped the Astros a lot at the league minimum. Bad moves.

Ensberg finished fourth in the NL MVP voting. He didn't get any first, second or third place votes, but finished ahead of Marlins Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Delgado. Pujols won for the first time, Andruw finished second and Lee finished third. Lee had the best year statistically -- even better than Pujols, so he probably should have gotten at least second. And what the heck? Burrell, Carpenter, Giles and Jimmy Rollins finished ahead of Bay, Griffey, Berkman, Dunn, A-Ram, Utley, Abreu and Edmonds. That ain't right.

In other news, Hideki Matsui signed the first big deal of the offseason. The Yankees re-signed him to a four-year, $52 million deal. Matsui is a very good hitter, but at 31 he's only going to get worse. The Yankees definitely overpaid, and this will set the standard for other big free agents like Furcal and Giles.

I've done some more thinking on the Ausmus situation. It really wouldn't be all that bad to re-sign him for '06. Yes, he won't be a help to our offense, but how many NL teams have a productive catcher? Barrett, LaRue, LoDuca, Hernandez, Estrada, Lieberthal. That's about it. And only LaRue had a better OBP than Ausmus last year.

If we can get him for under $2 million for one year, it wouldn't break my heart. So long as Quintero gets some playing time... maybe twice a week. Plus, Clemens would be more inclined to return, and this time maybe at a discounted price (it'll have to be).

If we do re-sign Ausmus, I really hope Purpura looks long and hard at Nomar. Since the Cubs told him to get lost, his options are limited. Teams looking to acquire a shortstop are: Seattle, Minnesota, Atlanta and Arizona, and maybe Toronto, Washington and the Mets and Dodgers. Of those teams, only Toronto and the Mets have the flexibility to sign a guy of Nomar's caliber. If we get after him early, I'm sure we could work out a deal. Maybe even offer him a two- or three-year extremely incentive-laden deal. He is 32, but can still mash if he's healthy. I think he's said he'd be willing to play left field for a team if need be. (Plus, we'd still have Everett if Nomar did get hurt).

Things are getting boring... let's make some moves.

Morgan Ensberg finished 4th in the NL MVP voting. Not bad for a guy who was one of the biggest disappointments in baseball a year ago. I probably would have had him 6th (behind Lee, Pujols, Bay, Clemens, and Andruw Jones), but in any case it's a great honor for him. I don't quite see why Derrek Lee got exactly one 1st place and one 2nd place vote, since he and Pujols had nearly identical statistics, but whatever. Pujols has certainly been the 2nd best player in the National League the previous three years, and he deserves it. Good for him.

With all due respect to the "Willy T deserved Rookie of the Year!" talk, he wasn't even the best rookie on the Astros. Chad Qualls was still technically a rookie, and I'll take him and his 3.28 ERA in 79.2 IP, including an awesome 2nd half and great playoff run (besides one memorable pitch to Mr. Konerko) over Willy T's 666 OPS any day. One interesting thing I did see is that Baseball Prospectus had a short article up about Gold Glove predictions and they had Taveras as a top-5 defensive CF. That is a HUGE asset, particularly with Lane and Berkman likely to be lumbering around in the corner OF spots in '06. We can expect his offense to improve somewhat (.350 OBP? Please?), and with his speed and defense, I want Willy T as our starting CF for the next few years. Period. But he absolutely was NOT NL Rookie of the Year this year.

I really hope anyone that reads this blog has been checking out Scott Barzilla's position-by-position scouting reports for this offseason. His latest, "Scouting the Relievers", is typically excellent. I don't want to spoil it (go read it here!), but let's just say he ends up recommending a guy that I liked a lot last year and still like. Go get him, Tim!

No News is Good News?

Andy (Andres to you guys) and I just got back from a weekend in Vegas, which was awesome (and the best). Nothing serious Astros-related happened, although Andy tells me that Luke Scott is tearing up winter ball and that Tim Purpura hasn't contacted the agents for Molina and Hernandez yet because resigning Ausmus is "our first priority". One of these pieces of news is good; the other is bad. Betcha can't guess which one!

I would really like Luke Scott as our 4th or 5th OF next year. Although he really struggled in his time in the majors this year, he still had some great AB's (anyone remember the walk he drew against Farnsworth to set up Berkman's grand slam against the Braves in the playoffs?). He's got power and patience and he's left-handed, three attributes our offense desperately needs. He's not young (I think he's 27 or 28), but he's definitely good enough to be a bench player right now, and perhaps start in the OF down the road.

Re-signing Ausmus scares the crap out of me. Ausmus had a superficially good year last year (.350 OBP!), but he's a 37 year old catcher who hasn't slugged .350 in years, is overrated defensively, and....HE IS A THIRTY-SEVEN YEAR OLD CATCHER!!! I don't want to sign him, period, but if he gets a multi-year deal we are shooting ourselves in the foot. Trade for Estrada, sign Molina, start Quintero...any of these would be better than paying a 37-year old catcher a few million for the next couple of years. Let him go, Purpura. Let him go.

Well, Willy T didn't win Rookie of the Year. His offensive stats sure didn't merit his winning the award, but his superior defense in center and his speed on the baspaths may have helped his cause. Unforunately, it wasn't enough, as Ryan Howard claimed the award, and probably rightfully so. I know voters aren't supposed to factor the postseason into their thinking, but didn't Willy's team go to the playoffs, while Howard's team watched from home? I know many Cy Young voters are swayed a little by how a pitcher's team did with regard to making the playoffs. (Example: Chris Carpenter won the NL Cy Young today, though Dontrelle Willis won more games and had a better ERA. The reason: The Cards went to the playoffs, while Florida stayed home). I'm just saying.

Anyway, Willy T exceeded my expectations in 2005. Going into the year, I didn't know if he'd stay at the major league level all year. But he bunted and hacked and chopped his way on base, and played admirably all year. Sure, his .666 OPS was second worst on the team (above only Everett's .654 OPS), but i really think Taveras has nowhere to go but up.

The problem heading into this offseason is the same problem we had all year in 2005. Our lineup is very productive from our corner positions and second base. Bagwell, Berkman, Ensberg, Biggio and Lane will form a solid core of hitters. It's our middle positions -- catcher, shortstop and centerfield -- where our weaknesses lie. And unless we upgrade offensively at these spots, we'll once again have three starters posting sub-.700 OPS for the year.

I'm not worried about Willy T. If he works hard to improve for next year, I don't think it's a stretch for him to post a .300 / .350 / .350 line as our leadoff man. That's acceptable. It's Everett and Ausmus I'm concerned with. Everett will be 29 by the time spring training rolls around, and it's an uphill battle to get back to a .260 / .320 / .380 line. If he can do that, I'd be ecstatic. One note: Everett had never played a full season at the major league level: He'd never played more than 130 games or taken more than 390 ABs in a year. He definitely dropped off in the second half: His .520 OPS in Septemeber proved that. He might be ready for a full season in 2006. But I hope he won't be starting.

Ausmus had his best year at the plate since 2000. And it will be near impossible for him to repeat it. Honestly, he looked very comfortable at the plate. His strike zone judgment was great: He actually had more walks than strikeouts! By September, Ausmus was having better at-bats than Ensberg, Biggio and Lane. He took his pitches, fouled a few off -- made the pitcher work to get him out. But he still couldn't pull the ball and more often than not ended up grounding out. His .682 OPS was much better than anyone could have hoped for, which is scary going into the offseason: We might be more inclined to re-sign him and hope that he puts up another .350 OBP in '06. He won't.

Conclusion: We cannot afford to go into the 2006 season with Taveras and Everett and Ausmus as three of our eight starters. Even if Bagwell's out and we manage to sign Brian Giles, it won't be enough to compensate for the futility of these three batters. While I expect modest improvements from Taveras and Everett (the latter only because he can't get any worse), I cannot reasonably expect Ausmus to put up another .350 OBP. Purpura needs to understand this and upgrade at least one of these positions, preferably shortstop or catcher.

At catcher, trading for Johnny Estrada or signing Ramon Hernandez would be a significant improvement. At shortstop, I don't think we should rule out Nomar. The question isn't whether or not he can still hit (he posted an .878 OPS after coming back from his injury). The question is his health, and if he can still defend adequately at shortstop. If we could give him an incetive-laced contract with a low base salary, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Other random thoughts : Why is everyone forgetting about Jason Lane? The man put up an .815 OPS for the year despite an abysmal month of May. He's only 28, and this was his first full season. He absolutely tore it up in the second half, which bodes well for his immediate future. Yes, he has a weird-looking stance, and he swings at everything, but I won't be surprised if he leads the Astros in homers next year.

Chris Burke put up a .781 OPS in the second half. I don't expect much power from him, but I do think he'll be an above-average second baseman for several years after Biggio reitres. Finding him a full-time position (Purpura has mentioned that he will give Burke some playing time at short in ST) isn't our first priority, but giving him 350 or 400 ABs sure would be nice as we groom him for an everyday role in 2007 and beyond.

The more I see of Kevin Millar, the more I like him. Yes, he's old (34) and he had a down year in '05 (.753 OPS), but his career numbers are solid and he hit a lot better in the second half. He'd be a cheap signing -- under $3 million -- and he'd be a much better backup for Bagwell than Lamb. I have a feeling he and Berkman would become best friends.

Johnny Estrada

Jack and I have decided: this is our No. 1 dream trade this offseason. Here's why:

1. With Bagwell's monster contract, it's a small upgrade we can make to improve the team. Without the flexibility to sign Giles or Nomar, we could make this seemingly subtle trade and improve quite a bit.

2. Estrada's very underrated. He's a switch-hitting catcher with power and patience. He's not really a home run hitter, but he's got gap power and can drive runs home late in the order. A career .273 / .326 / .393 line, but his career year in 2004 (.828 OPS) is still attainable in the future.

3. The Braves don't want him. They have McCann ready to start and Brayan Pena waiting in the wings. From what I've seen on Braves message boards, their fans can't wait to get rid of him (See below). Obviously management may think otherwise, but they still might try to use Estrada as trade bait.

4. He was injured nearly all of last year. He took a wicked collision from Darin Erstad in June and his back and neck never fully recovered. After a nice long offseason, he should be ready to put up numbers again.

5. He's great with runners on. His career .807 OPS with men on base would be a big boost to the team which struglled to get timely hits. Batting him behind Berkman, Ensberg, Bagwell and Lane would give him several opportunities to drive home runs.

6. Estrada, still arbitration eligible, would actually come cheaper than Ausmus, who would probably make at least $2 million. Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina are way out of our league. Estrada would be a clear upgrade over Ausmus offensively, and might have comparable stats to Hernandez and Molina.

7. An offensvie upgrade at catcher, in my eyes, would allow us to keep Everett with few repurcussions. Instead of a 7-8-9 of Ausmus-Everett-pitcher, which was more or less futile, Estrada would add a dangerous bat to the seventh spot. A lineup of Taveras-Biggio-Bagwell-Berkman-Ensberg-Lane-Estrada-Everett would score many more runs that last year's card.

8. He can spell his name correctly, unlike Jonny Gomes or Jhonny Peralta.

Of course, we would have to trade someone to acquire Estrada. They need bullpen help, but they're always in the market for good young arms. I wouldn't mind parting with Dan Wheeler, who had something of a career year. Chad Qualls is ready to assume the head setup role, and we could fins snother solid bullpen contributor via free agency. I'd also be willing to give away a prospect such as Nieve, Buchholz or Hirsh, or even Zeke or Wandy.


Several Braves message boards have called for trading Estrada. Some excerpts:

"McCann is ready to be an everyday starter defense will get better as the season progresses."
"Estrada will lose his value if he does not get to start regularly."
"Estrada will make more than 2 million with arbitration"
"The Braves can trade Estrada for a quality reliever, 2nd baseman or shortstop and use the money saved for Furcal."
"Estrada was the slowest catcher with a healthy back now he has a bad back and he is even only going to be slower."
"He's not a threat with RISP anymore. In 2004, he was almost automatic in that category. He was Mr. Clutch that season. Now he's just dead weight. I hate losing a switch-hitting catcher, but he's no longer an asset to us."
"I don't think we'll get much in return for Estrada ."

Theses are all reasons why we should acquire him! Look into it, Purpura.

There isn't a whole lot of baseball news these days besides all the young stat-oriented GM's (Epstein and DePodesta) resigning or getting fired. I can't understand the DePo firing at all. The Dodgers make the playoffs in his first year, then they are absolutely decimated by injuries his 2nd year (Drew, Gagne, Dreifort, Bradley, Valentin, Perez, etc.) and....he gets canned?? The Dodgers' farm system is incredibly good, and they are positioned to do very well in the NL West for the next 5+ years at least, with no bad contracts (only Drew, Kent, and Perez are signed to long-term deals, I think). Whoever replaces DePo is going to get a lot of credit that they don't deserve, because the Dodgers are in great shape, and have money to spend.

Scott Barzilla has several excellent articles up at AstrosDaily: one on the catching situation this offseason, and one on the shortstop situation. Criticizing Ausmus and Everett is dangerous but correct; many people believe these are defense-first positions, but you need to take each player's offensive and defensive contributions. And, frankly, you don't get many offensive contributions from either of those guys (yeah, Ausmus had a .350+ OBP this year - anyone want to bet that he'll do that next year?). I say look elsewhere if at all possible. I'll let Andy talk about Johnny Estrada, but I will be so freakin' happy if the Astros trade for him and platoon him and Quintero. So very very happy.

Gotta run. I got my 2nd-ever hole-in-one in frisbee golf this weekend. It was awesome.

The Dodgers signed Jose Cruz Jr. to a 1 year deal with an option today. Cruz will get 2.91 million in '06 and the Dodgers have a 4.5 million dollar option for '07. I guess that makes the total contract 2 years /7.41 million . Nice pick-up by the Dodgers - Cruz is a low batting average but high OBP / SLG switch hitter who is younger than most people think (31). I think this might start to set the market for free-agent outfielders. Actually, Cruz Jr. was worse last year than Brian Giles, Reggie Sanders, Jacque Jones, etc., so they should be looking at bigger contracts.

Free Agent Catchers (Or, Ausmus Again?!?)

Ausmus' stats improved dramatically from the black hole he'd become in '03 and '04. While he still couldn't hit with any power whatsoever, his ability to draw walks and hit singles gave him an above-average year in terms of OBP. His 2005 numbers (.258 / .351 / .331) marked his best years since his 2000 campaign with the Tigers. Some significant splits in '05:

Against lefties: .293 / .409 / .424 (.833)

In the second half: .275 / .373 / .365 (.738)

At home: .280 / .363 / .355 (.717)

Of course, that just means he was terrible against righties, in the first half and on away games. The fact of the matter is, Ausmus exceeded expectations last year and he'll probably never match those numbers again. Already 36, we can't expect him to improve again in 2006.

Purpura has suggested that re-signing Ausmus is one of the team's top priorities. He should rephrase that statement, perhaps to: "Finding a solid catcher is paramount." We shouldn't feel like we owe him anything. Re-signing him out of loyalty, while perhaps a good P.R. move, will not improve the team in the short term. Better teams — teams we're contending against — will acquire better players and become better teams in doing so. We shouldn't be content simply standing still, much less becoming older and slower and, really, worse.

At this point, Ausmus should be considered a free agent, just like Ramon Hernandez or Bengie Molina (or the mystery man, Kenjie Jojima, from Japan — more on him later). Ausmus has said he'll only play again for the Padres, his hometown team, or the Astros next year. In my mind, this simply buys us more time to assess other free agent backstops or explore the possibility of acquiring one in a trade. That way, if Hernandez and Bengie prove too expensive (which they will) and Estrada and Zaun are too costly to trade for, then can look at the Ausmus option. So here are our catcher options, as I see them:

Ramon Hernandez
Why he's good: He brings power to a position where it is a rare commodity. Besides, a dozen home runs in Petco is still pretty good. Hernandez was the 10th-best offensive catcher in the league last year, playing half his games at the most pitchy of pitcher's parks. He'll pass Javy and Piazza next year, and possibly Posada, Molina, LaRue and Barrett. He actually had a reverse split in '05: a .684 OPS against lefties and a .797 OPS against righties. I guess this is a good thing. He'll be 30 in May, so whoever signs him to a short (i.e. three-year) deal will be getting the last half of his prime years.

Why he'd fit well with us: He'd provide us with marked improvement in an area where we haven't had a decent player in years. Decades even. He'd give us balance across the lineup. Pettitte and Clemens have raved about Ausmus' other skills: defense and game-calling, for years. Hernandez, according to ESPN, is also a pitcher's catcher, calling good games and earning the trust of his pitchers. He could help with the development of Wandy and Zeke, who communicate better with other Latinos.

Downsides: He isn't as patient as you'd like. His career .325 OBP and .743 OPS aren't what you want to get from a guy you're going to spend a lot of money on. Plus he spent a lot of time of the DL last year.

Let's talk money: In a down year for free agents, he is one of the top commodities. If he sells himself out to the highest bidder — and there will be many — he just might get $10 million a year. I'd go as high as $7 million a year for three years.But that won't get it done.

Bengie Molina
Why he's good: He peaked at the right time, setting career highs in most of his counting and averaging stats. He improved his walk rate, but 27 bases on balls in 410 at-bats is still disturbing. He slugged .446, well over his .397 career average. In short, his last year was phenomenal, and probably a big step above what you'd get from his next couple of years.

Why he'd fit well with us: Despite his misleading stats, he does have power. And his .273 career average is nothing to scoff at. Like Hernandez, he would provide us with a good hitter at catcher. Oh, and his defense and arm: fabulous.

Downsides: He's already 31 and has played six full seasons. Catchers age poorly, so he;d be a risky signing. He's clearly not in top shape, though he does tend to stay off the DL. He still wouldn't be an asset on the basepaths.

Let's talk money: He too will look to make the big bucks. We shouldn't offer more than $20 million over 3 years, and that also won't get it done.

Well, that's about it in terms of catchers. There is a guy named Mike Piazza, but something tells me you'll see him in the broadcaster's booth before you see him on the field again. This Jojima guy looks alright. But he doesn't know English, and would take a long time to adjust to America, not to mention Houston. Can you imagine Wandy trying to talk to Jojima?!

I'm tired, but tomorrow I promise more on Johnny Estrada. A preview: Braves message boards are all calling for him to be traded! (It's an embarassment of riches over there). And

Uh oh.

I woke up this morning to a troubling site: In the Houston Chronicle, it appears Purpura has been talking with the agents of Ausmus, Vizcaion and Palmeiro. He has an interest in bringing them all back.

No! Please, no! In 2006, they will be a combined 112 years old! This team can't handle becoming any older, it'll die! Ausmus isn't such a bad option: A one-year deal with him allows us to pursue Jason LaRue after 2006. But now that I think about it, I don't know if I can handle another whole season ending in Ausmus - Everett - pitcher. That makes me cringe.

Palmeiro also wouldn't be such a bad signing. He can still put the bat on the ball, and despite a weak finish, he still had his best season in years. He still can't hit lefties, although he rarely strikes out and can play anywhere in the outfield.

I will kill or kick something if we re-sign Viz. He can't possibly get any worse, and yet he probably will. If he plays for us next year, it will undoubtedly be the worst million dollars EVER spent. He's withering away at the plate and defensively. I loathe him.

Thankfully, the Chron also said Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina are on the team's radar, as is Scott Eyre. That makes me happy.

And apparently, we're still trying to "keep the lines of comunication open" with Clemens. But at this point it's obvious we can't afford him with McLane's $85 million salary cap.

Check this out: Bruntlett actually had a better OPS than Lamb last year. But their stats were nearly identical:

Lamb: .236 / .284 / .419 (.703 OPS)
Brunt: .220 / .292 / .413 (.705 OPS)

Why then, did Lamb seem like such a more powerful threat? I guess they both just suck.

Later today: Why we should trade for Johnny Estrada.

Free Agent Sluggers (or, The Bagwell Dilemma)

My, my we need offense. And I'm not just saying that because we didn't score a run in the last 15 innings of the World Series. We struggled scoring runs all year, and everyone know it's our biggest weakness. Get through (or around) Berkman and Ensberg, and we might get blanked. Like we did 18 times last year.

A healthy Jeff Bagwell would fill this void. But he is not healthy. He's a shell of his former self — his OPS has dropped each year for the last seven years. Slowly, but steadily. And now, rapidly. Most of his falling stats have come from the slugging side. After slugging .615 in 2000, he fell to a career-low .380 in 100 at-bats in 2005, including a whopping seven extra-base hits. But we ought to throw out the numbers from last season.

One stat, though, still was remarkable despite the immense pain Bagwell was going through: His walk rate. His career-low .358 OBP last year was still third-best on the team. Even when he couldn't pick up a baseball bat — even after he altered his stance to take pressure of his shoulder — he could still draw walks like nothing else.

So as a disclaimer to this little aside on free agents, let's make a point clear: Bagwell is awesome. If he rehabs his shoulder and comes back strong, he'll be better than 99 percent of anyone we could sign to replace him. At 37, the man can still play ball. (Even Todd Jones thinks so)

So: If Bagwell can return, he will play first base. Berkman will play left, Taveras center, Lane right, Biggio second and Ensberg third. Those spots are essentially guaranteed. (I hesitate to put Everett up here because he was absolutely terrible last year. He should feel ashamed. If Purpura has a spare minute this winter, he should ask about Furcal and/or Nomar.) We might look to sign a catcher with pop, like Ramon Hernandez or Bengie Molina. But that's it for posible changes to our lineup. It will no doubt be improved by Bagwell's presence.

However, if Bagwell cannot return, we have several hard calls to make. Like what to do with Bagwell. If he can still hit but not field, he may want to be traded to an AL team where he could DH. I would not hold it against him. If he wants to try to hit 51 more homers to get to 500, I wish him the best of luck. It would be very hard to unload a significant portion of his contract on anyone: We'd no doubt be stuck paying nearly half of it. (Real quick: what teams might want him? Baltimore? Minnesota? Detroit? Kansas City? Anaheim? Seattle? Could you see him playing for any of those teams? Me neither).

If for whatever reason he couldn't hit, he might decide to retire. How about becoming our bench coach? Maybe Jason Lane will adopt his stance! Seriously, we could give him some sort of 10-year special services deal that we've given Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. The problem — and it's always a problem — is his contract. I believe I'm correct in assuming that Bagwell will collect the $24 million owed to him over the next two years (he has a $7 million buyout option for 2007). But I have a fool-proof plan that everyone will enjoy: re-negotiate his contract to pay him $3 million over the next eight years. Bagwell still gets his $24 million promised by his contract. The Astros get a huge financial break, and are awarded an extra roster spot. Everyone wins! (Obviously, this will never happen.)

(Another disclaimer: I am in no way hoping that Bagwell can't come back. I'm just speculating on what can be done if he can't.)

Disirregardless of what is done with Bagwell's contract, Purpura must find a way to bring another bat to the lineup. As mentioned above, Lane, Berkman, Taveras, Biggio, Ensberg and (sigh) Everett are in the lineup for sure. Which leaves our only potential positional upgrades at first base, corner outfield and catcher. (Since the catcher quagmire is also long and laborious, I'll leave that to another post).

So what are we looking for? Essentially someone who can replace Bagwell in the lineup. Someone who can provide protection for Berkman and Ensberg and sort of bridge a gap from those two to Jason Lane. Preferably a left-handed bat. Someone with good numbers w/RISP. If we don't have enough freedom of our budget, someone who can for a platoon with Chris Burke out in left field. (Luke Scott, in my opinion, is not ready. Although the clock has already begun ticking on his six years under club control, he needs more time in the minors.) Here are my picks: Brian Giles, Jose Cruz Jr., Bernie Williams. I'll mention , Jacque Jones and Matt Lawton too, but they aren't candidates we should be looking at.

Brian Giles
Why he's good: Career .950 OPS. Led the majors in walks last year. He hit only 42 homers in two-and-a-third "disappointing" seasons in San Diego. The only real disappointment came when Giles had to bat at home. He hit only .267 / .378 / .417 in Petco Park, a huge contrast to his 1.008 OPS on the road. No wonder he didn't resign with the Pads. There's no doubt he is declining, but last year he countered the downward trend with an upswing in all his averages. His .423 OBP was higher than his career stats (.413). He's very durable, sitting out only seven games in two years with San Diego. And his defense is above average.

Why he'd fit well with us: His power numbers, most noticeably his home run totals, have dwindled since the trade to San Diego. He'd get his confidence — and swing — back with the Juicebox's short porch in right. More importantly, at least to Drayton, Giles is a hard and serious worker with a good attitude and great approach to the game. He's a gamer — the kind of guy the Astros will want on their side. The teammates, as well as the city, will embrace him.

Downsides: He'll be 35 in January. But has not the city of Houston discovered the fountain of youth? His power numbers have taken a dive since he slugged .622 in 2002. His speed isn't what it used to be, on the base paths or in the outfield. His arm is accurate, but I don't know if he'd play right over Lane or not.

Let's talk money: He hasn't gone unnoticed by any means. But if Giles ever hit 30 homers for a contender, he'd be a rich man by now. His 15 homers in a contract year really cost him a couple million. Now, instead of making what he deserves to make ($10 million/year), a fortunate team can nab him for a bargain ($8 million/year?). He nixed a three-year, $21 million extension from the Padres, which was really an insult more than anything. We should be willing to go as high as $18 million for two great years. Unfortunately, we most likely will not be able to sign him if Bagwell doesn't restructure his contract.

Jose Cruz Jr.
Why he's good: Correction: He used to be good. He hit 64 homers in two years with the Blue Jays! Sure, he's only hit 77 in the four years since, but he seems to have found his power stroke at the tail end of the year with the Dodgers. At 31, he might be on the verge of a breakout year. Also, the man takes a ton of walks and hits from both sides of the plate, making him a dangerous asset. He's used to playing centerfield, but he can play any outfield spot, and likely will in Houston.

Why he'd fit well with us: Yes, his pops coaches first base. Yes, he went to Rice with Lance Berkman. Those things shouldn't suddenly make him a great hitter again, but they'll definitely allow him to fit in more comfortably. He'll like the "Cruuuuuuuz" chants. He'd be a great fit in the lineup between Ensberg and Lane.

Downsides: He's definitely a question mark in terms of offensive production. His optimum performance could be as good as .280 / .380 / .450, which would be a tremendous improvement to our offense. But he could sink to the .750 OPS -guy we've seen the past three or four years.

Let's talk money: He may have priced himself out of our range with his offensive outburst in Los Angeles. But the Yankees won't sign him, and the BoSox already gave up on him. So it's doubtful anyonewill give him more than a 2-year, $7 million deal, which is what I'd gladly give him.

Bernie Williams
Why he's good: Jack says he's a borderline Hall-of-Famer. I doubt that, but check out his career stats: an .863 OPS on average is phenomenal. Yes, he sucked last year, posted career0lows across the board. But some of his craptitude can be attributed to injury and possibly pressing. Over his career, he's showed patience and power from both sides of the plate. And his home and away splits are nearly identical. In 2004, he posted a .262 / .360 / .435 line, which I think is still reasonable for him if he stays healthy in '06. (By the way, his .688 OPS in 2005 was better than FOUR of our starters: Ausmus, Burke, Taveras and Everett. As bad as people said he was in NY, we had four guys worse than him. Ha.)

Why he'd fit well with us: He wouldn't have to play center, and his lack of speed would be excusable in our short left field. He'd give us another switch hitter with power from both sides to complement Berkman. He's a stand-up guy, a clubhouse guy, someone the Astros always look for in their signings. And he'd be our first black player since — who? Mike Jackson? Tony Eusebio? I guess Gipson is black... Anyway, he could really make a second home down here and I'm sure the team would welcome him.

Downsides: He's 37. That's old. Really old. He put up at least a .900 OPS for seven straight seasons from 1996 to 2002. He hasn't posted an .800 OPS since. His decline could be drastic, and he might well fall off the face of the earth. Also, injuries are a huge risk: his knees are no more. He might be looking to sign with an AL team to try and be a full-time DH.

Let's talk money: It's hard to say what kind of contract this guy will get. His great career stats conflict with his horrendous 2005. I wouldn't be surprised if some dumb team inked him for $8 million a year (Texas? Baltimore? Detroit?). Assuming the conditions are right, I'd give him a one-year contract stuffed with incentives. Start him at $4 million and let him play his way up to $5 or even $6 million. But who knows, he might even retire.

Jacque Jones
I don't like Jacque Jones. Actually, I don't like the idea of signing a player who is that worthless against left-handers. It really limits his effectiveness. I usually like platoons, but Jones will want to start everyday and will command a contract that will make it seem stupid not to start him everyday. He can't be had for less than $5 millon a year, and a platoon player is not worth that much.

Matt Lawton
He's a good player, and we could probably get him cheap. But he took steroids, so there's no way the Astros will ever touch him.

Keep in mind, everything hinges on Bagwell. His contract is a big issue, but perhaps even more so is his spot in the lineup. I mean: If he can play, our outfield is pretty much set: Berkman, Taveras, Lane. There's almost no point in signing any of these guys if Bagwell's playing. (Maybe Cruz, to split time with Taveras?) In any case, everything hinges on Bagwell, and hopefully we will know his status sooner rather than later.

Free Agent Starting Pitchers

If Roger Clemens comes back, we won't be on the lookout for another starter. Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt, Backe and Zeke or Wandy would make another tremendous rotation and be among the best in baseball. The problem, of course, is that Clemens would command a figure higher than the $18 million he made in 2005.

Now then, if he doesn't come back, we must make a move to fill in a replacement. I don't want both Wandy and Zeke to have spots in the rotation. Nor do I want another rookie like Fernando Nieve or Jason Hirsh rushed up to the majors too quickly. We should be on the lookout all winter for a serviceable third or fourth starter. We don't need a premier free agent pitcher, nor can we afford one. We need an innings-eater. Someone who can go out there, maybe give up three or four runs, but keep it close and consistently go at least six innings.

The top three guys I have in mind are Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson and Brett Tomko. I'd also hope we take a look at Vicente Padilla and Tony Armas Jr., but those guys come with huge injury risks. So here are my top three candidates:

Paul Byrd
Why he's good: He hasn't posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2001. He spent all of 2003 and half of 2004 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but showed no ill efects with the Braves and last year with the Angels. He has pinpoint command: He walked a mere 28 batters in 204.1 innings last year. He also cut down on the long balls, only giving up 22 last year.

Why he'd fit well with us: Byrd is a veteran who knows how to win. He was born in Louisville and went to LSU, so he'd probably enjoy Houston. He makes batters put the ball in play, and with our excellent defense at short and center, we'd record outs for him. And since he's controlled the homers he gives up, batters probably wouldn't take advantage of the short porches in the Juicebox. He goes deep into ballgames: only three times during the regular season did Byrd fail to go six full innings.

Downsides: He doesn't strike anyone out, which Jack will tell you is bad. He's not great against lefties (.811 OPS compared to .639 against righties). And with Edmonds, Dunn, Griffey, Overbay, and Jenkins in the division, he might get hit.

Let's talk money: He might actually be too expensive for us. After his marvelous season with Anaheim, I think some teams might offer him three years at $6 or $7 million apiece. That's more than I'd be willing to give him. If we did sign him, I wouldn't want to give him more than two years at five, maybe six million per year.

Brett Tomko
Why he's good: Like his 2004 campaign, Tomko turned it on down the stretch last year, with a 3.78 ERA after the break. He gave up much fewer homers (39 over two seasons in San Fran) than he has in previous years, but this is obviously a factor of playing in the spacious and soon-to-be-renamed SBC Park. None of his stats are particularly impressive or alarming, except for one: innings pitched. He's averaged 198 innings over the past four years. That's durability. He's never strayed too far from his 4.50 career ERA. So with Tomko -- unlike with Forrest Gump -- you know what you're gonna get.

Why he'd fit well with us: Hard to say exactly. He's been everywhere in his nine-year career: Cincinnati, Seattle, San Diego, St. Louis, San Fran. So maybe he's still looking for a place to call home. Or at least a team he feels comfortable with. Tomko seems like the kind of guy who could have a monster year if he just had the right combination of coaches, teammates and manager. With Nolan Ryan, Andy Pettitte, Jim Hickey and a guy named Clemens in the ballpark, who knows what he could do.

Downsides: He's never been been great and he'll be 33 in April, so there's no reason to expect a real breakout year. He also doesn't get too many strikeouts, and his walk rate is a tad high. He wasn't consistent throughout the year, sometimes going eight innings, sometimes not making it past the third.

Let's talk money: I doubt many teams are going to throw gobs of money at him. If we could get him for $6 million over two years, I'd do it.

Jason Johnson
Why he's good: See above. Johnson is mysteriously similar to Tomko: He's been a consistent starter, throwing over 190 innings in each of the last three seasons. Johnson's walk rate has dropped significantly: only 49 in 210 innings. He was money at home: batters had a .639 OPS against him there. Like Tomko, Johnson is somewhat inconsistent. But he's economical. In five straight starts from May 10 to June 3, he went eight innings. His number of pitches thrown in those starts: 90, 98, 108, 100, 101. That's good stuff.

Why he'd fit well with us: Obviously, his talents have been wasted in Detroit and Baltimore. He's had only one winning season, and his career record of (brace yourself) 52-86 is more a factor of those bad teams than his abilities. And this guy is a ground ball machine. He induced 375 ground balls last year, compared to only 216 fly balls. With our well-above-average infield, I think we'd convert more of those ground balls into outs.

Downsides: He's faded in the second half the past few years, which may have something to do with his diabetes. And he'll throw in a two-inning start every now and then, so we should be careful.

Let's talk money: I honestly don't think too many other teams would want him. Something in the vacinity of 2 years for $5 or $6 million would probably seem like we're overpaying.

So there you go. Byrd, Tomko, Johnson. In that order. It's hard to say it, but I'd take 200 innings of 4.50 ERA for $3 million over 200 innings of 2.00 ERA for $20 million. When you can spend that extra money on another hitter like Brian Giles, it's definitely worth the downgrade.

Speaking of which, I'll do a preview of the top free agent outfielders available. Giles, Jacque Jones, Jose Cruz Jr., maybe (but most definitely not) Nomar. Plus, why Todd Hollandsworth and Chris Burke would form an admirable platoon in left field...

Way, way, way off topic, and I know this is a baseball blog, but this bears reading (from Cnn.com, October 26):

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- The U.S. military death toll in Iraq reached 2,000 Tuesday with the reports of three new deaths, and President Bush prepared the nation for more casualties, saying the "defense of freedom is worth our sacrifice."

2,000 fallen American soldiers. And most people are more concerned with celebrity gossip. I'm not going any further into politics - your views are your views, and probably better expressed in other forums / blogs / etc. But 2,000 Americans dead? My God.

It's time to delve into the free-agent list. There's a ton of them out there, although not too many superstars. There are just so many question marks entering this offseason -- Bagwell's shoulder, Clemens' back and hamstring -- it's impossible to foresee what position we'll be in when it comes to the bidding.

This club has shown in recent years it is able to pull off a big deal and sign a premier free agent (Kent, Pettitte), but Purpura has not. He's more of a player development guy, which can hurt his effectiveness when it comes to signing a big name. For instance, he might hesitate in signing a player like Jose Cruz Jr. or Jacque Jones if it means Chris Burke's playing time will be cut. Anyway, I hope that's not the case.

This club has definite needs to pursue in the offseason: Offense, a utility infielder, another starter and a catcher. Oh, and an extra reliever might not hurt. I'll go into greater detail about each category later on, but here's the overview:

1) Offense. I expect similar numbers from Berkman and Ensberg, and Lane and Taveras should be expected to make slight improvements in their respective purposes (hitting home runs and getting on base). Biggio could drop off or he could hit 30 home runs... you never know. The big question mark is Bagwell. If he's able to return, he'll fill a key hole in the lineup. But if he can't, Purpura must make a deal to bring in another big bat, preferably left-handed. There are several outfielders available who could either replace Chris Burke entirely or enter into a platoon situation. Berkman could then shift full-time to first base.

Suggestions: Brian Giles, Jacque Jones, Jose Cruz Jr.
Other options: Ben Grieve, Richard Hidalgo, Todd Hollandsworth, Reggie Sanders, Rondell White

2) An infield utility man. Vizcaino and Palmeiro are out. Palmeiro was surprisingly useful this year, but really dropped off in the second half (.267 / .322 / .371). He is able to put the bat on the ball consistently and rarely strikes out, but at 36, he'll only get worse. And with Lane, Taveras, Berkman/Burke and Scott in the outfield already, he won't be necessary. Thanks for the good ABs, OP.

Viz is gone too. And about time. The scary thing is, Viz's two-run single against Jenks in Game Two might actually have bought him another year in baseball. Let's just hope it's not with us. So let's see: we have Lamb/Berkman, Biggio, Everett and Ensberg, plus Bruntlett, Burke and maybe Bagwell. I hate to say it, but we need a middle infielder with -- you guessed it -- veteran presence. Burke will no doubt be starting some games in left field, and Bruntlett is really there for defense. So we'd need someone to occasionally spell Everett and Biggio and have decent numbers at the plate.

Suggestions: Miguel Cairo, Damion Easley
Other options: Tony Graffanino, D'Angelo Jimenez

3) Another starter. I don't expect Clemens to return, nor should Purpura. He was phenomenal this year. Just unreal. But he got us to the World Series and for that, he can add "franchise savior" to his list of accomplishments. But now he's hurr, he's tired and he's 43. Oh yeah, and he'd command a gajillion-dollar salary. Thanks Rocket for a great ride, but your presence is needed in other places, like coaching your kid to be the next Lance Berkman.

Now then, as I've said before, we don't need a premier free agent starter, nor can we afford one. So forget A.J. Burnett and Jeff Weaver and Kevin Millwood (Although it's hard to believe those are the "premier" starters were exactly one game over .500 in 2005). We need someone who can throw 200 innings with an ERA under 4.50, and who can do so for relatively cheap... no more than $5 million a year. I know that's asking a lot. But it's possible. Another approach would be to sign a player who's been injured but has potential for greatness... someone like Padilla or Armas.

Suggestions: Tony Armas Jr., Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, Vicente Padilla, Brett Tomko
Other options: Pedro Astacio, Scott Elarton, Matt Morris, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, Jarrod Washburn

4) A catcher. I don't know what to make of Brad Ausmus. I mean, I love the guy, and so does everyone else, but he's just getting old. While he put together an impressive campaign in erms of OBP (.350), his power numbers continued to sink. On the other hand, the potential free agents are somewhat overrated. The career OPS of Ramon Hernandez (.742) and Benjie Molina (.782) are not impressive enough to offer $8 million per year, which is what they'll make. Robert Fick can catch and hit well enough, but his bad boy attitude is enough to keep him off the club. Jason LaRue is NOT a free agent, although the Reds might be willing to trade him at the deadline... Prospect Humberto Quintero is not ready.

I honestly don't know what to make of this situation. After Bagwell and Clemens, it's our biggest problem entering the offseason. I'd really like to trade for Johnny Estrada.

Suggestions: Robert Fick, Ramon Hernandez, Benjie Molina

5) A reliever: In my dream world, we'd trade Dan Wheeler to get Johnny Estrada. Wheeler's been phenomenal, but Qualls is ready to step up and the Braves need a bullpen. Mike Gallo was okay as our lone lefty, but there are some better ones out there. Scott Eyre would really please me.

Suggestions: Joey Eischen, Cal Eldred, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Chad Fox, Todd Jones, Paul Quantrill, Mike Remlinger, Al Reyes, Ricardo Rincon, Felix Rodriguez, Julian Tavarez, Ugueth Urbina, Tim Worrell

Well, that's it for now. Tomorrow: an in-depth look at free-agent pitchers, and why Vincent Padilla and Jason Johnson would be perfect fits at the Juicebox.

It's hard to be upset with an NL Championship, but it sure did stink to see us get swept. I have to admit each game was a nail-biter... it's just such a shame we couldn't end up on the winning side in any of them.

Is it too soon to start thinking about next year? No.

The problem is, the status of next season hinges on two future hall-of-famers and one light-hitting catcher. If Ausmus doesn't come back, it's unlikely that Clemens will. And if Bagwell's shoulder won't allow him to play defense, something must be done. It's difficult to conjecture about possible signings when we don't know about these three players and the possible $40 million they'll make.

The most troublesome situation is Bagwell's. He honestly wants to come back, but if it's a degenerative condition, I can't see how he'll ever throw a baseball again. Jack has told me that Bagwell would want to be traded to an AL team so he could DH if he can't throw again. I really can;t see him in any uniform but Houston's, but if this is what he wants, we have to respect it. The problem is that we won't know his status for a few months -- and probably too late to sign a big bat like Brian Giles.

I honestly don't know what could be done with Bagwell's $17.5 million contract for 2006, but in many ways I wish it would somehow disappear. Berkman could move to first base exclusively and we could go after a corner outfielder like Giles or Jacque Jones.

Clemens could probably come back and pitch at an elite level. But is he worth more than $18 million now that his hammy makes him a question mark in terms of health? And when we could sign two good free agents with the money we'd dish out to him? It's hard to say.

More later...

Well, the Astros lost. By a total of 6 runs in 4 games. And went 0-for-30 with runners in scoring position after Jason Lane's Game 3 double in the 8th inning. But goddamit, we made the World Series for the first time in our history. Consider:

2003-4 season - Win first postseason series in history, lose in NLCS
2004-5 season - Win two postseason series, reach World Series for first time in history, lose in WS
2005-6 season - ?? (The obvious pattern is that we'll win the WS next year).

Do I really believe that? Not really. The Astros are old. And I hate to say it but I don't think we're going to get any younger. I think we're going to re-sign Brad Ausmus, we already have re-signed Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, though I admire the hell out of him, would better help the team by retiring, and Roger Clemens might come back.

None of these things should happen.

This seems a strange time to talk about this - man, what a season what we had. Our record was 15-30 at one point. The Phillies and Marlins looked like better teams. But we clawed our way into the playoffs, beat the Braves, beat a superior Cardinal team, and then I think we were just exhausted in the Series. Part of that was because we had fought so hard for so long, and part of that was because we are an old team.

Well, I'm not going to talk about the offseason yet, actually. Here's to the 2005 Astros, a team built around the best front 3 (Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt) in years, a solid front 3 in the bullpen (Qualls, Wheeler, Lidge), and just enough offense to get by. Cheers, guys.

Astros fans are going crazy right now. Half of them think Lidge ought to have come in to face Konerko in the seventh. The other half don't think he should have come out for the ninth. The fact of the matter is, Garner made the right moves but our pitchers didn't execute. You can blame it all you want on the cold or the rain, but both teams had to deal with the conditions.

Lidge has been really shaky ever since the last week of the season. Since September 30, he's allowed 14 hits, six walks and seven earned runs in 12.1 innings. That's a 5.11 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. His cold streak could be attributed to a number of things. He could be hurt, or at least sore, after throwing 80 innings between the regular season and the playoffs. His fastball, while still clokcing at 95 or 96 mph, doesn't seem to have the same explosion in it. Hitters are getting around on it. Which might be because they know what's coming. Whether he's tipping off his pitches or not, batters seem to be guessing right more often on the heater.

Or, he could just be getting unlucky.

Don't everyone worry. Roy O will right the ship.

What a game.

Sometimes you have to simply take a step back and appreciate what a great game this is. THe first game was pretty intense, but Game Two had it all. One minute Berkman's the hero, then it's Konerko, then, of all people, Vizcaino! But Scotty Pod and the Sox had the last laugh.

Yes, people in Houston are calling for Lidge's head, and no one has any faith in Wheeler or Qualls. Here's the deal: they're all fine.

I don't blame Lidge. And he doesn't either:

"This pitch, I was not nitpicking,'' Lidge said. "The one Pujols hit was a mistake. This one, I have to tip my hat. ... I was real surprised by Podsednik. You don't expect him to do that. I'll learn from that, and make a different pitch next time.''

The pitch was inside, and probably should have been more so, but does anyone here expect Scotty Pod to catch up with a 95-mph heater? No. Afterwards, Podsednik said he was waiting on the fastball. Hell, everyone watching knew Lidge was coming with the fastball. Podesdenik just got it good.

And Lidge? Yes, he's been less than stellar his last two appearances. But by no means is he melting down. And no way he doesn't come out to close out Game Three.

"I've had success this year, I'm going to stick to my guns. I'm frustrated by it, but I'm not changing a darn thing. I'm ready to get out there as quickly as possible."

Wheeler had trouble in the eighth, but it was no meltdown either. Uribe, who's rocked us so far, smacked a double off the wall. Then Iguchi put up a great at-bat and drew a walk. Dye also realized that Wheeler couldn't get his grip on the ball, and had a great at-bat before being "hit" by an inside pitch on a full count.

It's hard to blame Qualls either. He's coming into a game with the bases loaded, a position he's not entirely used to. Even with their best hitter up, you can't afford to get behind him and risk a walk. Qualls had to challenge Konerko, and his sinker just didn't sink enough.

But how about that ninth inning?!? Bagwell gets some playoff love by blooping a single to center. Burke works a walk and Ausmus grounds out to first, moving the runners up. Jack and I both shuddered when we saw Vizcaino emerge from the visitors' dugout, but it turned out to be the best move he's ever made. Ha. And Burke's slide! What a move by the youngster! And Biggio's reaction in the dugout! That was a fantastic turn of events against Jenks.

Hey, things aren't all that bad. The Series is far from over, but we do have to dig ourselves out of a hole. Oswalt's starting tomorrow, and Minute Maid Park will be rocking. Berkman's locked in, and Mo snapped out of his funk. Willy T's been on fire. Let's all take Monday off... maybe tease Lidge again on the flight back to Houston. It worked last time.

First of all, I know we don't even make the playoffs, much less make it to the Series, without Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and Brad Lidge.

BUT COULD THEY FREAKING SUCK ANY MORE IN THE BIGGEST GAME OF THEIR LIVES?

Wheeler can't throw strikes, Qualls throws a batting-practice pitch to Konerko, and Lidge throws fastballs right down the middle to both Uribe and no-regular-season-HRs Scott Podsednik. Good Lord.

Nice comeback, offense, good hit Viz, and great slide Burke. Too bad the bullpen channeled Dan Miceli and gave this game to the White Sox.

Houston Astros
2005 National League Champions

How sweet is that?

The simple truth is that we outplayed the Cardinals in the NLCS. After Game 1, I was a little worried, but from them on, our starters dominated (particularly OSWALT), our offense scored enough runs, our defense was solid, and if it wasn't for a seeing-eye grounder to Eckstein and one terrible pitch to Albert Pujols, we would have put this series away in 5. But no worries - we've got Roy Oswalt.

Anyway, it's time to look ahead to the World Series. Check out a few series previews here, here, or the in-game chat here. Ok, Andy, what do you think?

I think we gotta lock up Oswalt for life. He pitched at his peak ability, and he wasn't fazed by pitching on the road in a tough ballpark. I also think Garner's making good decisions for the most part, and all our guys are contributing, even Ausmus and Everett. That's going to be key in the World Series. We'll have a more in-depth breakdown later on, but I'll say this: it's a very even matchup.

YES!

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!

What if you're a Cardinals fan?

Can you imagine the ecstasy of seeing your team rally from two runs down with two outs in the ninth? Can you imagine the absolute bliss of seeing Pujols creaming that pitch over the train tracks? I know, it's hard to see it from a different perspective, but we Astros fans just have to tip our caps to the Cardinals and say congrats. 'Cause it ain't gonna last.

Two bits of... comfort?... I received yesterday. First, from my fellow jobless baseball fanatic Alex Louie: These guys are professional ballplayers. Oswalt, Clemens, Lidge, Berkman, Biggio... they're not going to fold just from one loss. They're going to go out the next day and dominate. They know how to play the game, and play it well. What's more, they've been in this situation before: Fighting for the Wild Card the past two years and playing the Braves and Cardinals tight for two years. They're professionals, and they know they can win.

Second, from my fellow ultimate player and non-baseball lover Lawrence Walters: Dude, so what? They lost a game. No big deal. They're still up aren't they?

Both are good points. I wonder if we'd be feeling so crushed if we lost 8-3. If it weren't close... if we weren't one out away. We'd probably be feeling pretty good about our chances. We won the series at home, we're up three games to two and we have Oswalt and Clemens starting in St. Louis. Still...

And how about these guys being professionals? Oswalt gave a press conference which really cheered me up. He reminded everyone that the team is cool and collected and ready to battle in St. Louis: "They are trying to catch us," he said. "We are not trying to catch them."

He also gave us a glance at Lidge's psyche: "He's the type of closer that has amnesia. He won't think nothing about it next time he gets out there. He'll come out tomorrow, end of the game, and I'm sure he'll be lights-out just like he always is."

"Oh, we kidded with him the whole time on the plane today. We actually told him we almost got hit by the ball when it took off. That's the thing about baseball, once it happened last night, it happened last night. You can't do nothing about it today."

Good point, Roy. Now get out there and win us a ballgame.

FAITH!

If you don't think the Astros can get to the World Series after tonight's loss, why even cheer? This team has come too far this year -- hell, the past 45 years -- to fall apart now. I'm sure everyone on the team hurts as much as I do right now. I'm sure everyone's thinking, "Why, God, Why???" But tomorrow's an off-day, and that gives everyone, fans and players alike, time to regroup and refocus on the task at hand.

Sure, the Cardinals have momentum right about now. Yes, they are back home and yes, they probably have a lot of confidence. But we're right there with 'em. I remember Garner giving an interview during the NLDS. He had great things to say about this team's ability to rebound from a loss. He said it's easy to get down and get frustrated when we don't score a lot of runs, but he felt great pride in the team's mental strength in coming out the next day and playing hard.

That's what we need to do right now. Let go of tonight's loss. It hurt, yes, but it's over now and it's time to move on. Tomorrow's game is going to be another classic, so everyone better have their heads on straight.

Oswalt vs. Mulder, Wednesday night. Another great game, coming up. Have faith. Cheer like hell.

One out away.

Berkman's three-run homer put us up 4-2 in the seventh. Gallo and Wheeler got us to the top of the ninth, and Lidge made the first two batters in the ninth look silly striking out. Two strikes to Eckstein and he singles through the hole. Lidge walks Edmonds, never really challenging him. And then Pujols.

I'm fried right now. I can't even think right now. Gotta regroup and get ready for Wednesday. Hope the team can come back from this.

I'm still recovering from last night's game. The Wade boys (Dad included) watched the first 6 innings at a sports bar in Berkeley, CA, but Dad had to catch a flight back to TX, so we listened to the next few innings (including our run-without-a-hit in the 7th and the running-up-the-hill catch by Taveras to end the 8th) on the radio in the car....and then we had to go check in for our flights! Called a friend, who gave us the play-by-play, and listened (listened!) to the game-ending double play, which went something like this:

"Ok, Mabry's up...1st and 3rd, 1 out...man, how did Walker get to 3rd?....ground ball to 2nd! (10 second pause, possibly the longest of my life).....YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" *My phone dies*

Well, a win is a win is a win. It wasn't pretty, and we're now 2-for-31 with RISP, but we are ONE WIN AWAY FROM THE WORLD SERIES!

Pettitte vs. Carpenter in a rematch of Game 1 tonight. It's actually going on right now, so I'll have to write more later. Go Astros!

Oh, and a huge thanks to Sports Bloggers Live, who have an excellent interview with Craig Biggio right here. They asked us for a good question to ask Biggio, and...well, why don't you listen to the interview? A sneak preview: Andy came up with the question, and it involves Chris Burke.

Great team win today. Clemens didn't have his best stuff and only registered one punchout, but he got the job done. He went six innings giving up two runs on six hits and two walks. Both runs came on sac flies after consecutive singles. He worked out of jams several times, a testament to his experience and ability to come up with big pitches when they're needed.

Offensive MVP: Mike Lamb! He hit a two-run homer and a double that later led to a run. I think the double traveled about 100 feet further than the homer. He had good stats against Morris coming in, so props to Garner for getting him into the lineup.

Defensive MVP: Chad Qualls! Staked to a 4-2 lead in the seventh, he retired Luna, Eckstein, Taguchi, Pujols, Edmonds and Walker in order. That's dominance.

Interesting changes in the lineup made by Garner. Burke played center and batted second. Ausmus finally moved up to the seventh spot ahead of Everett. All three went 1-for-4.

The Cardinals suffered another injury in the game: Lane, going first-to-third on Ausmus' single, banged knees with Abraham Nunez. Nunez wasn't great filling in for Rolen this year, but he was 4-for-10 in the NLCS. We took advantage of Hector Luna's inexperience there on the next play. Everett grounded to third, but Luna's throw home was high and wide, allowing Lane to score. And that fourth run was HUGE.

No rest for the weary: We play tomorrow at 3 p.m. EDT, Backe versus Suppan. Backe's about the most emotional pitcher I've ever seen, and he's always been a much better hurler at home. He hasn't been great this year, but you just never know when he;s going to turn it on and go one-hitter on us. So we'll see. The stats:

Astros vs. Suppan:

Berkman: 8-for-22, 2 HRs, 1.254 OPS
Vizcaino: 13-for-21 (!), 4 doubles, 1.446 OPS
Lamb: 3-for-17, .412 OPS
Palmeiro: 0-for-17, .105 OPS
Everett: 4-for-9, 1 HR, 1.278 OPS

Cardinals vs. Backe:

Eckstein: 4-for-6, 2 doubles, 1.778 OPS
Edmonds: 2-for-9, .607 OPS
Grudzielanek: 4-for-8, 1.181 OPS
Pujols: 3-for-10, 3 HRs, 1.662 OPS
Walker: 3-for-7, 1 HR, 1.500 OPS

Will Viz get a start at short tomorrow? Hard to say. While he's had a ton of success against Suppan, he still sucks. Hard. I think it's an obvious choice to start Berkman at first, Burke in left and Taveras in center. But with Garner playing musical chairs, you never know.

Oh baby. Two wins away.

It was our uncle's birthday today, so we (my brother, Dad and I) flew out to the Bay Area to run in a Family Triathlon. My brother swam, and Andy took off on the bike portion just as the Astros game started. Of course just as it was getting interesting (2 on, 2 out, Berkman up in a 0-0 game in the 4th) Andy finished so I had to go run, but I came back to see we were up 2-1 thanks to Mike Lamb, and we got a few insurance runs and Lidge just did hold on. WE'RE DOING IT!!!

Next: Game 4 - Brandon Backe vs. Jeff Suppan.

Ok. The truth: Brandon Backe is not that good, and he has not had a good year. He struggles against lefties, and against the Cardinals. But goddamit, this is a huge game, and we are going to get tough and we'll find a way.

Maybe more details to come, but it's my uncle's birthday dinner so that's all for now.

GO ASTROS!