Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Something to Talk About

Hey, we made a move! The Astros signed Preston Wilson to a 1 year / 4 million dollar deal today, with a CLUB option for a 3 year deal after this year. That's a weird option; I can't see us picking up a 3-year option unless Wilson goes insane.

I'm actually all right with this move. First of all, let's take a look at Wilson's numbers:

Career line - .264 / .333 / .478

Last year - .260 / .325 / .467 (half in Colorado, half in Washington, and he somehow managed to put up near-identical lines)

So basically he's a low-average, low-OBP, high-SLG guy. He'll be 31 years old, so he's not getting any better, but he shouldn't collapse either. Wilson has played most of his career in CF, but he had a knee injury last year, and most sources suggest that he will not be playing CF again anytime soon. He has 67 AB's at Minute Maid Park, and his numbers are pretty sweet: 940 OPS, 9 extra base hits, 7 walks (very small sample size, though).

It's a little misleading to judge Wilson by OPS alone: unfortunately, it overvalues him, because Wilson's OPS is more SLG-heavy than OBP-heavy, and OBP is more important.

It's probably best to compare this signing to similar deals given to comparable players this offseason:

Reggie Sanders - 2 years / 10 million
Jacque Jones - 3 / 16
Jeromy Burnitz - around 1 year / 6
Rondell White - 2 / 8.5

Wilson is younger than Sanders and Burnitz, healthier than White, and...well, I would have rather had Jones, but ours is only a 1-year deal.

I'm going to wait a day or two to put up some more analysis, but for now, I like it. It's hard to analyze this move until we see if it brings about another move (trade Taveras? Lane?) or if it means Bagwell is done. But for now, good job, Purpura.

I can't help but be amused by this quote:

In the press conference Purpura said that Preston Wilson called him and said he wanted to play for Houston. This is a good sign.

and this guy's response:

What this tells me is our GM is waiting for players to call him while he sits around eating donuts.

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