Baseball Prospectus 2005, my favorite baseball annual, was waiting on my doorstep when I got home yesterday. I flipped to the Astros section, and was not surprised to find that their analysis was not positive. They started by praising the Astros 'going for it' with the Beltran trade, and highlighted our 9th inning comeback against the Expos as a 'turning point' of the season.

Then:

"Now, the Astros are at another turning point. As exhilirating as the 2004 run was, the challenges they face now are much the same as they've faced for the past few offseasons...

The Astros project as clearly inferior to the Cubs and Cards going into 2005, with an aging roster and funneling far too much money to players who won't be productive enough...

One of the hardest things in sports is to let go of the success you've had in the past in order to ensure more success in the future...

This isn't a contending team. The question is whether new GM Tim Purpura can get his hands around that fact early enough to salvage positives from the season...

But if they can use the year to get Chris Burke established at 2nd base and add some talent to the system's upper levels through trades, and then have a strong draft that replenishes the lower levels, they can lessen the time it takes for them to be a factor again...

Most importantly the Astros have to change their identity. The Killer B's aren't killing anyone any longer. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are going to go into the Hall of Fame, quite possibly together. This year, though, has to be the year in which Biggio's role is reduced, creating space for Lane. There's nothing Purpura can do about the money Bagwell is owed, but he can build his team in a way that shifts the focus from him to Berkman and Oswalt...

The hardest thing to do in sports is let go of your success. We'll know very quickly if Purpura is up to the task."


Pretty good stuff. I agree (big surprise) almost completely. The Astros need to realize that they're not likely to contend short of a bunch of miracles, and they need to start looking to rebuild. They've signed Berkman and Oswalt to multi-year deals, which is good; now they need to look to build around their youth: Chris Burke, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras form an excellent up-the-middle defense (but not-so-great offense), Oswalt and Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio should be a decent front 3, and Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls are solid in the bullpen. We need to build around these players, with some good drafts, smart free agent signings (particularly at catcher, starting pitcher, and bullpen), and occasional trades.

BP2005 then predicts every Astros player (along with a few minor leaguers) and writes a paragraph about them. Some of the highlights:

Brad Ausmus: He's been a .220 EQA hitter since 2000...he allowed the most steals and highest success rate of his career in 2004...with John Buck out of the way and a $3 million salary in '05, he'll be the starter again, but Ausmus may be the worst regular in baseball.

Craig Biggio: He's an enormous liability in center field...add in that he posted the lowest walk rate of his career...the Astros need Willy Taveras to win the CF job to allow Biggio to stay in left, minimizing the damage he does.

Chris Burke: Baseball America named Burke the best defensive 2nd baseman in the PCL in his first season in which he didn't also play SS. The Astros #1 pick in 2001 also had a big power spike, fixing what has been his biggest problem as a pro.

* Gotta run - I'll finish later.