Thursday, February 26, 2004

Well, no one else is writing much (Andy? Barstool?), so I better keep it up. There's another great article at Baseball Prospectus about the Astros, although it's subscribers only, but I'll give you the scoop:

They don't like Craig Biggio or Brad Ausmus.

Surprise, surprise, huh?

They go through the entire offense in terms of VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), and Biggio and Everett are slightly positive, Ausmus slightly negative, and everyone else pretty solid. They also project a massive rebound year for Berkman and for Hidalgo to regress a bit, both of which I basically agree with.

Ok, but here's the thing about Biggio. They project him at .267 / .344 / .401....which is NOT that bad. They also have him at below-average defensively, which I also agree with....but he's not insanely bad, like Bernie Williams.

They project Lane at .275 / .340 / .472, which I think is also pretty accurate.

Anything surprise you there? Biggio has a higher projected OBP than Lane!

Yeah, yeah, Lane is younger, has more power, is better defensively....

But OBP is still the most important stat in baseball, and if Biggio's is projected to be higher, it's not an absolute tragedy that he's starting over Lane. Hopefully Lane will still get plenty of AB's (backing up Biggio, filling in for Berkman against LHP, backing up Bagwell, first PH option), so it's not a question of Biggio-or-Lane.

Anyway, I'm gonna get a little more of Amsterdam in before I leave for Berlin tomorrow. Bye!

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