Friday, February 04, 2005

A: Randy Winn, Jose Cruz Jr., and Mike Cameron.

Q: Who are 3 above average, underrated CF's that the Astros would do well to trade for.

I was just checking their stats, and it's eerie how similar these guys are.

Winn Cruz Jr. Cameron
Age 30 30 32
Bats B B R
BA ('04, career) 286, 284 242, 250 231, 248
OBP ('04, career) 346, 344 333, 336 319, 340
SLG ('04, career) 427, 411 433, 455 479, 440
SB% ('04, career) 75, 68 64, 74 78, 78
OPS+ ('04, career) 107, 99 101, 103 104, 105
Range Factor as a CF ('04, career) 2.71, 2.66 3.00, 2.40 2.67, 2.74
2005 salary 3.5 mil 4 mil 2 year / 16 mil

Cameron also has the most injury concerns, although the latest reports have his wrist healing quickly and he may be ready for Opening Day.

So, going stat-by-stat, Winn has the highest BA (basically irrelevant), Winn has the highest OBP (thought it's very close, espeicially career OBP), Cameron has the highest slugging (despite playing much of his career in Seattle, an extreme pitcher's park), Cameron has the best SB%, Win had the highest OPS+ (though Cameron has the highest career OPS+), Cameron has the best career Range Factor as a CF (Winn is close, Cruz Jr. is fairly low, I shouldn't have even used 2004 stats for Cruz since he played 1 game there), and Winn has the lowest '05 salary (then Cruz, and Cameron is signed for the next two years at 2/16).

What does it all mean? I like Cameron as much as anybody, and he's a defensive magician, but 2 years / 16 for a guy for a 32 year old with some injury questions isn't too appealing. I prefer taking a one-year flier on Winn or Cruz Jr., and if I had to pick one, I like Randy Winn. Cruz Jr. might sell more tickets or have a big year playing for his dad, though. Either one would make an excellent 2005 Astros CF, and would solve a lot of problems for our team.

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