Sorry for the delay in my write-up of the Buchholz game on Saturday. I think I'm still stunned by it. Actually, I spent a lot of the weekend helping the parents pack for their move out to Flagstaff. I also didn't go to the Sunday afternoon game, mostly because I knew there was no way it could top Saturday's game.

My drive to The Woodlands was somewhat delayed by Friday night beer pong with some A&M friends. We'll just say I'm glad it was a night game. Barstool and I left the Wade house with plenty of time — a good thing since we hit traffic on I-45. Still got to The Juicebox an hour before first pitch (I had wanted to catch some of BP, but my hangover and my general tardiness prevented that). We walked around the stadium for a bit to soak up the atmosphere — it had been almost a year since I last visited Minute Maid. We saw all the new attractions: the '05 NL Pennant banner underneath the railroad tracks (it's black unlike all the brick red WC and NL Central banners), the new Coke sign under the scoreboard, the updated pictures of various Astros painted on random support columns (My favorite is Ensberg with his arms in the air, yelling with delight... you think he knows about these? and is he embarassed?). We got some ice cream to ward off the heat, and found our seats... row 5 of the upper deck directly behind home plate: we had a perfect view to tell if pitches were inside or outside (and lemme tell you, I was plenty of called strikes that seemed to be a foot outside). We missed the national anthem and barely sat down before the first pitch.

And then Buchholz went nuts.

Nine up, nine down to start the game. The first inning was actually kind of scary: Duffy smacked a ball hard to Everett, who had to make a good play spinning to his left to nab it. Jack Wilson then cracked a liner up the middle that Buchholz snared on one hop. It wasn't nearly the best comebacker caught by pitchers this week — there were plenty of them to go around — but it was a fine play by Buchholz to rob WIlson of a hit. And then Bay hit a bmob to center. I thought it was gone off the bat, but watched as Taveras twisted and turned his way backwards... running right, running left, finally catching the ball on Tal's Hill, a mere 420 feet away from home plate. Yikes.

But he settled down after that. Hit Duffy leading off the fourth, but induced Wilson into the double play. In the fifth, Burnitz hit a sharp single to right that Biggio really didn't have a play on. If he were for some reason at double-play depth, it would've been right to him... but oh well. Of course, no one thought at the time that it'd be the only hit Taylor would give up until the 9th inning!

Meanwhile, the offense took advantage of some sloppy defense in the first inning to get on the board. Biggio led off the Astros' first by popping out to center. I had already looked away, when Barstool elbowed me. "Wait! Oh! Ooooh!" The crowd was reacting the same way... lauhging and then cheering at Chris Duffy misplay of the easy pop fly. He had broken back initially, and it took him a few seconds to realize it was coming in shallow. Duffy's a fast litle guy, and just about had a chance to mae a diving play on it, but let it fall in at the last second. Yay.

Next, Willy T (who might be mistaken for Barstool next time out.. that's right, Barstool will soon own a Taveras jersey) slapped a ball between first and second. Castillo, who had been at double-play depth, ran back into right field and couldn't catch up to it. So two potential outs turned into two soft singles. And here comes Berkman!

And there goes Berkman. GIDP. Shit. But Ensberg comes through with a solid base knock to center with two strikes on him! 1-0 good guys! Snell was almost as good as Buchholz for the next three innings. Lane walked but was stranded. Berkman singled and Ensberg walked, but Preston struck out swinging. Thankfully, the crowd held its boos. His slump has been pretty bad over the past two weeks, but all ballplayers go through that. And I don't want to be put on the same level as Mets or Cubs fans, who boo their own players. That's not classy. Besides, with two outs, a punch out there is the exact same as if he were robbed of a home run. So the K wasn't so bad. And, for the most part, aren't bad in general.

In the fifth, Biggio hit his 611th career double, and it went where at least 90 percent of his doubles go: down the left-field line. I don't know if defenses ever put on a shift for a right-handed hitter, but Biggio almost always pulls the ball, and usually right down the line. In any case, Biggio is good. Swinging at everything, but still... he's going crazy right now. He adjusted the positioning of his hands after watching videos of at-bats in which he struggled. Since then, he's gone 16-for-26 with 4 doubles, three homers, seven RBI and eight runs. That boosted his OPS from .579 to 1.009. He's gotta be player of the week (if not for his teammate...). Willy T chopped one to third and beat out Randa's throw. First and third, one out (Buchholz K'd) and Berkman coming up!

And this time, he does his job... by crushing a ball to center. Like Bay's ball, I thought Berkman's was gone. But he just got uner it, and Duffy caught it on the warning track near the Astros' bullpen. Biggio trotted home for run number two.

Two innings later, Biggio hits a sharp line drive off lefty reliever John Grabow. It's going right toward Bay in left. "Get over his head," I shout. Bay had backpedaled, but soon turned around to play it off the scoreboard. "Alright!" I thought. "Another double for Bidge!" But I was way off... the ball snuck into the first row of the Crawford boxes for a homer! Biggio scores his third run of the game, the Astros' only ones. Wily T and Berkman hit solid singles immediately after, and Ensberg walked against reliever Salomon Torres, who's actually pretty good. Bases loaded, one out for Preston! I lean over to Barstool: "Man, this would be the perfect way to break out of his slump. Just an easy single. Or even a deep fly ball. Anything to get him started." Of course, it's a situation where a K is awful. But Preston didn't K — he grounded into the easy double play. The struggles continue (and he did draw a few boos). Personally, I was just glad he made contact.

Oh yeah, did I mention Buchholz was cruising? Duffy got on in the fourth via HBP but was erased on Wilson's GIDP. After Burnitz's single in the fifth, Buchholz was perfect! No baserunners! Nada! Craig Wilson came up in the eighth. By this time, fans were starting to realize what the kid had going. They were really cheering him on. And when Wilson smacked a liner into left, you could hear the crowd draw a collective breath... before Wilson layed out and snagged it! A great play... one of several he's made this year that Berkman (and probably Burke) couldn't have made. Great defensive play, and the crowd really appreciated the effort.

Here's where the game got intense. Keep in mind, the Astros' lead was a slim one, 3-0. Buchholz quickly gets Freddy Sanchez to ground out to Everett, who, charging, somehow manages to juggle it over his head a few times before firing it to first just in time. For a relatively easy play, Everett sure made it look tough! Next up, Nate McLouth, who strikes out on a full count!. I don't think I've ever been so nervous for a pitcher the way I was for Buchholz. I mean, I'm pretty much always nervous for Lidge, and I've seen a few gems in my day (including Julian Tavarez taking a no-hitter into the seventh... for the Cubs), but never something like this. The stadium was shaking. everyone was on their feet, willing Buchholz to get one more out

A grounder to second! Bruntlett's got it! He..... fires! ..... wait..... WHAT?!? ..... he dropped it! ...... now he's got it! ...... he fires it! ...... Berkman's got it! ....... NOOOO!!! Ump said safe!! Berkman hops off the bag in a rage! The crowd, which had been cheering like crazy, turns its ire onto the ump. Or Bruntlett, who must've felt two feet small. Booms echo through the stadium! The fireworks are going off! And not just one or two, but an entire display. It must've lasted 30 seconds! Personally, I couldn't help but laugh. I mean, either way, this is something Buchholz will remember forever (as well as most of the fans), and it really makes you realize that baseball is really a game, and sometimes crazy stuff like this happens, and it's all fun.

So shake it off, big guy! Let's just get Wilson here... the one-hitter's still inta---- Nope. Wilson singles to left. Up walks Jason Bay! This game suddenly went from a once-in-a-lifetime event to a possible extra-inning affair in a matter of seconds. Out walks Garner. He doesn't even hesitate when he points his right hand to the bullpen. Lidge.

Lidge said after the game he didn't want to pitch. It sounded weird hearing him say that... but I know what he meant. He wanted Buchholz to go all the way. But despite the crowd's boos, I think it was a smart move. Wilson's single was sharp, and you don't go for sentimentality when a game hangs in the balance. Lidge comes in and immediately gets behind Bay, something he's done quite a bit of late. The old throw-it-two-feet outside routine. But Lidge comes back to a full count and gets Bay looking to end it! Booyah.

Eight and two-thirds of two-hit ball by the youngster! That's something you don't see everyday. I had a hard time seeing his pitches from my angle, but on the replays, his curve looked unhittable. He made Bay and a few others look silly trying to put feeble swings on that curve after they already knew it was too late. And i saw a few 94 mph heaters from the big guy.

After the game, Barstool and I headed down to the dugout to see Buchholz's interview. He came hopping out of the dugout to sit on the field level like he was still walking on air. There were probably 100 or 200 people who hung around to applaud him, and we let him have it when he first came out. He was only a few feet away, and boy did he look scrawny! He's listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds, but that's rather generous. I think I'm taller (6'2") and weigh more (180). He talked for a good five minutes, interspersed with interrupting applause and chants from the crowd.

It was a great day for Buchholz, and a great day to be an Astros fan.

Our lineup for Sunday looks like:

Biggio
Taveras
Berkman
Ensberg
Lane
Burke
Ausmus
Everett
Oswalt

So Preston Wilson gets the day off. I still think he'll be fine - he's just barely missing some pitches at the moment and he's getting a lot of tough strikes called on him. There is a solid article at Astros Daily about how Biggio used video footage to break out of his slump. That's a great idea - do what you need to do to get going. Andy's at the game today, too, plus he has Oswalt on his fantasy team, so he ought to be pysched.

Our ultimate frisbee team had their awards banquet yesterday. My award: "Jack's Tears Cure Cancer. Too bad he has never cried Award." It's a spoof on a Chuck Norris joke - there are lots of them.

Andy is at the game today (and he's going tomorrow) while I'm stuck here studying for my Master's Exam on Monday. Lucky bastard. I'll check in every now and then to see how Buchholz (two H's, according to Andy) is doing.

Oh, and I caught a bit of this movie "Remo Williams" on TV the other day. A few quotes from it:

Chiun: Women should stay home and make babies. Preferably, manchild.

Chiun: Breathe out... slowly... do not gulp. If you do not breathe correctly, you do not move correctly. Pitiful. I can see the deadly hamburger has done its evil work.

Remo Williams: You know, Chiun, there are times when I really like you.
Chiun: Of course. I am Chiun.
Remo Williams: And there are times when I could really kill you.
Chiun: Good. We will practice that after dinner.

Remo Williams: Chiun, you're incredible!
Chiun: No, I am better than that.

Man, that's good stuff. Go 'Stros!

Chris Burke is pinch-hitting for Wandy Rodriguez in the bottom of the 6th with 2 on and 2 out. Another solid outing by Wandy - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER (a Jason Bay HR), and 4 K. He got into a jam or two but seemed to come up with a double play when he needed it. He was part of an interesting sequence of events in the 1st inning - a close pitch is called a ball on a 2-2 count, Wandy doesn't like it and may have said something to the home plate umpire Rick Reed, who the next thing you know comes running out from behind the plate to say something to Wandy. Garner doesn't like this and comes running out to Reed, has his say, and gets tossed. Oh, and the game is approximately 9 minutes old at this point. Weird. Oh, and Chris Burke struck out, but we're still up 3-1 thanks to a 2-run Ensberg HR (his 6th game in a row with a HR!) and a solo Jason Lane HR. Keep up the power.

Bah, Russ Springer. Still want him pitching higher-leverage innings, Andy? He's not bad, but he didn't 'magically' become better over the offseason. I'll take Qualls over him anyday.

Chris Capuano looked good tonight. He basically shut us down, although Brad Ausmus continues to draw walks like a man possessed. Andy Pettitte looked great (7 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) but no win. He'll get his eventually.

Astros sue over Bagwell insurance claim. Wow. Actually I guess this was inevitable. What happens if we lose? What happens if we win? More on that next post.

We're 13 games into the season, and the mighty Astros sit on top of the NL Central with a 9-4 record. Inspired by similar posts at Aaron's Baseball Blog and U.S.S Mariner, I thought I might give out letter grades at each position. Here goes:

Catchers: C

Brad Ausmus still can't hit for power, but I'll take a .258 / .410 / .258 line from him any day. He's still solid defensively and can call a good game, although he is not a God in those areas as some would have you believe. I was excited when Garner went with Eric Munson as the backup catcher, since he has some pop (career .405 SLG) and bats left-handed. However, he's struggled so far, hitting .143 / .188 / .143. We don't have any better options, though, so I hope Munson turns it on and keeps his job.

1st base: A+

Lance Berkman. Lance F'ing Berkman! A .380 / .441 / .820 line. 6 HR's, 18 RBI's, 7 walks, solid defense at 1st...what a stud. His knee looks good, he's running well, he's crushing everything...keep it up, big fella.

2nd base: C

Craig Biggio is the 2nd best Astro ever, but he's a 40 year old 2nd baseman, a tough feat to pull off. He's hitting .250 / .308 / .354 with 2 walks, but what makes me nervous is he's only seeing 3.30 pitches per plate appearance. That's terrible, especially from a leadoff hitter. It seems like he's franticaly trying to reach 3,000 hits, patience at the plate be damned. Chris Burke has looked good so far, hitting .231 / .333 / .462 with 2 walks in 13 at-bats. I'd love to see him get at least a start a week at 2B.

Shortstop: B-

Adam Everett still covers a ton of ground at SS, has been swinging a hot bat lately, and he's hitting .289 / .289 / .400 on the year. But 0 walks out of the #8 hole? That's rough. If he starts drawing a few walks, he could end up being one of the better shortstops in the NL.

Third Base: A+

Morgan Ensberg, along with Berkman, has been carrying the team offensively. You like Berkman's 1261 OPS? Ensberg will see that and raise you to a 1377 OPS. He has 11 walks and 10 extra-base hits in only 44 AB's. He has made 4 errors, but not all of them have been his fault. His stance still looks a little funky, but you can't argue with the results.

Left Field: C

P-Wil strikes out a ton (5 times last night!), but there's a tradeoff - he'll hit for a lot of power. I'd like to see him shorten his swing just a bit, because if he pulls the ball at MMP, he'll hit 30 bombs, no problem. However, a .245 / .302 / .510 line isn't bad. He's only drawn 2 walks and he's 0-for-2 in stolen base attempts, so he can do better.

Center Field - B

Willy T has looked better at the plate so far, at least to my eyes. He's only drawn 3 walks, but he's worked a lot of counts (P / PA), and he's hitting a non-fluky .304. He's also 0-for-2 in stolen bases, which is weird, but I expect that to change soon. His defense has also looked good.

Right Field - B

After the last few games, Lane has raised his line to .217 / .368 / .435. The hits will come, and he's drawing walks (11 so far). I like his defense in RF, and he's just an all-around good guy.

Bench: C

No one's done much so far. Bruntlett has had a few big hits, but both Lamb and Palmeiro haven't done anything. Stay tuned.

Rotation: B

Roy Oswalt? 2-0, with a 1.99 ERA. That'll do. Andy Pettitte - 6.35 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 5 HR allowed...yikes. Brandon Backe was off to a nice start, but he's out for six weeks. And then it's the young guns - Wandy, Bucholz, and Nieve, who have all done surprisingly well. Can they keep it up?

Bullpen: C

The Big Three (Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls) has shrunk to the Big Two so far - Qualls has been really up and down - mostly down: 9.35 ERA, 12 hits, 4 BB in 8.2 innings. Lidge and Wheeler are looking good, but our lefties (Gallo and Miller) are crappy. I'd rather see Springer, Astacio, or Jason Hirsh than either of those guys.

Coaching: B

Garner has done a nice job not overworking his pitchers yet, and he's given Biggio and Ausmus a few days off each. My only complaint is bunting with Taveras in the 1st inning!!! AAARGHH!! Don't give up outs so early on! Other than that, so far, so good.

Overall: A-

We're basically being carried by Berkman, Ensberg, and Oswalt, but that's what stars are supposed to do. Pettitte and Qualls will be fine, Biggio should bounce back a little, etc. A lot will depend on how Wandy / Bucholz / Nieve / Astacio do. I'm excited.

Hope everybody had a happy Easter. The Astros sure enjoyed the weekend, taking two of three from the D-Backs. I had a great time in Austin, and even headed up to Round Rock on Sunday. I played the disc golf course at Old Settler's Park, where the Express play at the wonderful Dell Diamond. I really wanted to check out the game, but Ruby, my black Lab, wouldn't have liked being locked in the van on a 90-degree afternoon. I heard later that Brooks Conrad hit a walk-off two-run homer to win 6-4 over the Cubs. Luke Scott also homered, Jason Hirsh started and J.T.'s favorite Astro, Brandon Puffer, got the win. Ah, baseball.

Meanwhile, in the big leagues, Berkman and Ensberg have been going crazy. Just insane. Forget the numbers; every time they step to the plate, you can SENSE that they're gong to hit the ball hard and do some damage. Obviously, these guys aren't giong to slug .800 for the year, but let's hope they can both ride their streaks for the next few weeks.

Monday' game was encouraging in more ways than one. But none more important than the team's ability to come back from deficits. After Gabe Gross' pinch-hit three-run homer off Qualls (c'mon Qualls!), our hitters rattled off 5 runs in the bottom of the seventh, capped by Lane's moonshot bomb. Also encouraging: Buchholz was money in his first start. Berkman and Ensberg (and Everett!) continued their hot hitting. Lane and Biggio improved their averages. And Lidge nailing down the save in a one-run game. Here's the play-by-play:

I left work early to catch the first pitch, only to find out that the game was blacked out in Bryan-College Station. Hmph. But Milo — like the Astros — was on top of his game tonight (At one point, he described Prince Fielder as "a Hummer in a baseball uniform").

Taylor Buchholz threw a very good game in his first career start. He gave up a monster bomb to Carlos Lee in the second inning (Milo: "Just this side of Beaumont"), but settled down to retire 14 of the next 16 batters. After a Moberg throwing error allowed J.J. hardy to reach with one out in the sixth, Geoff Jenkins hit another monster shot to right. Buchholz walked Lee, but got Koskie to ground into the double play. So in six innings, Taylor allowed only those two hits! Sure, they may have traveled a combined 1000 feet, but still... it was a very encouraging start.

The offense was steady throughout, and boy it was nice to see us respond whenever we lost the lead. Right after Lee's homer, Everett singled home Lane in the bottom of the second. After an awful first week, Everett has really started hitting. With a 2-for-4 night, he's hit in 8 of his last 19 at-bats. Who needs walks? A sac bunt later, Biggio drives Ausmus home with a grounder to go up 2-1.

After Jenkins' bomb, Ensberg made up for his error with a solo shot leading off the sixth to tie the game at 3. And even when most fans thought the game was over after Gross' three-run shot, Biggio led off the seventh with his 609th career double. Taveras reached on Koskie's throwing error which pulled Fielder off the bag. It sounded like it was a close play since Prince put up a fight, but since I couldn't watch the game, I really don't know. In any case, Berkman and Ensberg followed with RBI singles, and after a Preston Wilson strikeout (his 4th out of 5 on the day!), Lane follows with an absolute BOMB off Matt Wise. I finally saw the highlights on SportsCenter, and Lane was PUMPED as he rounded first, high-fiving Cruz and pumping his fist. What a clutch hit! In the playoffs last year, I remember hearing an announcer quoting hitting coach Gary Gaetti as saying that Lane could lead the team in homers in 2006. Boy, that's a scary thought...

Wheeler got in trouble in the eighth, giving up a single to Weeks and a double to Fielder that fell three feet shy of entering the Astros bullpen. Yikes. But Lane made a nice sliding grab of Moeller's liner, and Wheeler got Bill Hall swinging. Lidge allowed a two-out single to Jenkins, upsetting my nerves a little bit, but got Lee on a grounder to end it. What a game!

What's that old saying about momentum? Something about tomorrow's starting pitcher? I believe we got the Wizard going tomorrow. And I have a feeling Wilson will get a big hit off Davis.

Two wins and 18 runs later, it looks like our offense is back on track. Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman continue to be the big threats, but Jason Lane, Adam Everett, and Willy Taveras all provided some big hits in the last two days. However, the most impressive performance was probably that of Wandy Rodriguez on Saturday. I watched the game and Wandy looked solid, consistently locating a 90-92 mph fastball and occasionally dropping in a big breaking ball. Only a few balls were hit hard off him, both by Damion Easley. If he keeps pitching like that...well, he probably won't, but if he does, that would be awesome.

My one (minor) complaint is that Eric Munson needs to start hitting! Garner has shown he's willing to give someone other than Brad Ausmus some playing time, and of course Munson has responded by hitting .143 with 5 strikeouts in 14 at-bats. Also, I have to give Ausmus some props - I don't know if he's been reading Moneyball or Baseball Prospectus or what, but he has a .400 OBP, with 6 walks in only 28 AB's. If you're going to slug .250, at least draw some walks. Nice going, Brad.

We start a 3-game series with everyone's sleeper team, the Brewers, today:

Taylor Bucholz vs. David Bush
Roy Oswalt vs. Doug Davis
Andy Pettitte vs. Chris Capuano

Go 'Stros!

According to Astros.com and a few links from Astros Daily (both of which have good message boards, by the way), Brandon Backe will miss a minimum of six weeks with a right elbow sprain, at which point he may or may not return. Zeke Astacio was called up from AAA to take his roster spot.

Shit. It's not like Backe is a great starter - in his first full season as a starter last year, he had a 4.76 ERA and an uninspiring 67 / 97 walk-to-strikeout ratio, but at least he was a guy we could pencil in every 5th day, he just turned 28 so he's still improving, and he was off to a nice start this year (2.25 ERA in 8 innings.) So what does this mean? Well, it makes this even more of a rebuilding year. I'm not saying we couldn't sign Clemens on May 1 and go on another crazy run to make the playoffs, but at least until then 3/5 of our rotation is Wandy Rodriguez, Taylor Bucholz,and Fernando Nieve, with Astacio as long relief. I'm excited to see how all those guys do, but here's a hint: they probably will not all do well. They're young, and most young pitchers have a rocky start when they first make it up to the Show. Still, it will be neat to have a sneak peek at what our rotation could look like a year or two down the road. The four guys I mentioned plus Jason Hirsh should all be contending for rotation spots in '07. Here's their chance to show off.

We lost to the D-Backs 5-1 last night. Brandon Webb got groundball after groundball, and Andy Pettitte struggled a little bit, allowing 7 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs (2 earned, 1 scored off a Biggio error). I thought he looked ok, getting a lot of groundballs like Webb, but more of Pettitte's found their way into the outfield for base hits. Jason Lane had a few nice at-bats, getting 2 hits, but other than that the offense was pretty quiet except for an Adam Everett RBI double.

Today: Wandy vs. Claudio Vargas.

Astros Notes:

According to the Houston Chronicle Fernando Nieve will start against the Diamonbacks on Friday, as Brandon Backe flies back to Houston to get his elbow examined. In case Backe is out for a long time we've got Nieve or Zeke Astacio (6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K at AAA so far) ready to go.

People on various Astros message boards are clamoring for Jason Lane to be benched. To which I say: small sample size, bitches. Lane has already drawn 10 walks this season in 29 AB after drawing 30 all last year. His increased patience (it doesn't hurt that teams are probably pitching around him to get to Brad Ausmus either) will help him a ton in the long run. He'll hit. His OPS (635) is still higher than Willy T, Ausmus, or Everett. By the way, Ausmus, Everett, and Taveras have combined for 0 extra base hits in 89 at-bats so far. Yikes.

The Astros are in town (or as close as they can get) this weekend for a series against the D-Backs. All the games will be on TV here, so I get to watch them all at my local sports bar. Woohoo!

Bad news: Backe hurt his throwing elbow in Game Two of today's doubleheader against the Giants.

We split the two games, losing 5-3 to Matt Morris before Oswalt shut down the Bonds-less lineup to win 8-0. Berkman hit a pair of bombs in Game Two, the first time he's ever hit one from each side of the plate. Preston didn't hit any homers today, so Berkman may have hit one just for him:

"I'm trying to put a little pressure on him... he's been right on my heels," Berkman said.

The Wizard allowed a bunch of baserunners but he worked out of every jam and was able to keep runs off the board. He came out in the ninth for the shutout, but Biggio dropped a potential double-play relay. Roy finished with 8 1/3 scoreless innings for his first win at Pac Bell/SBC/AT&T Park.

The second game was really a team effort. Everyone in the lineup got a base knock, which was good news for guys like Lane and Ausmus. Boy it felt good watching those Giants pitchers walk off the mound shaking their heads.

I have to say that I really like Preston Wilson in our lienup. They guy is a gamer on every side of the ball — his two highlight catches on Tuesday showed his defensive ability. The man's not afraid to crash into a wall or get dirty — something I hope doesn't hurt him later in the year. And he really looks strong at the plate. He's got a very active swing, especially around the legs (It looks like he's popping his left knee out of its socket every time he swings!). But he can wallop the ball, which is great from a corner outfielder.

This was our only scheduled trip to Frisco, so we'll have to make up the third game of the series in May when both teams have an off day.

Now, on to Arizona. Pettitte versus Brandon Webb on Friday and Wandy versus Claudio Vargas on Saturday. After that, our rotation gets a little hazy, especially with Backe's potential injury. Nieve got the last two outs of Game Two tonight, but he might be able to make a start. And Zeke Astacio is at Round Rock, ready for a call-up.

Let's hope Backe's okay. He mentioned the words "Tommy-John surgery," which is a scary, scary sign.

Biggio, Ensberg, and Ausmus all get days off today. Our starting lineup is:

Burke
Taveras
Lamb
Berkman
Wilson
Lane
Munson
Everett
Backe

Lamb hitting 3rd looks strange, but he has good numbers against Morris for his career. I'd like to see Lane and Munson get a little USC offense going. Let's hope Brandon Backe can keep the ball over the plate.

Holy Toledo what a win!

Last July, Eric Bruntlett hit a 3-run homer in the top of the 14th inning to give the Astros a much-needed win in Washington. The starters of that game? John Patterson and Wandy Rodriguez. This afternoon, in creepy, deja vu fashion, Bruntlett did it again. Patterson and Wandy both started and allowed three runs before handing it over to the bullpen. Both closers hiccuped and gave up a solo shot — ex-Astro Daryle Ward took Lidge deep in the top of the 10th, and Morgan Ensberg went opposite-field off Chad Cordero to extend the game in the bottom half of the inning. That set up Bruntlett, who has a penchance for heroics when the game is on the line. Sure, maybe not as much as Chris Burke... but he's a player all the same.

After Biggio doubled off Mike Stanton, Taveras bunted him over and Berkman and Mo were intentionally walked. Bruntlett hit a shallow fly to right-center that centerfielder Brandon Watson caught flat-footed. Biggio saw that he'd have to deliver a perfect strike, and took off for the home. The throw was high and late, and the Astros finished their homestand with a 5-2 record. Not bad for being outscored 36-35 in those seven games.

Chad Qualls deserves some credit for getting back on track. After blowing up in Saturday's loss to the Nats, he pitched 2 scoreless innings to get the win. We'll need Qualls at his best to stay in the playoff race.

So it's off to the West Coast where we'll face the Giants and the D-Backs. Buchholz gets his first start tomorrow against veteran Matt Morris, who's 9-10 with a 3.53 ERA against the Astros. The matchups:

Tuesday: T. Buchholz v. M. Morris
Wednesday: B. Backe vs. M. Cain
Thursday: R. Oswalt vs. J. Wright

Last year we started hot at home (5-1, I think?), before collapsing on the road (2-21 to start the year!). Let's hope we get off on the right foot against the G-men.

I went down to Tucson yesterday for my last ultimate frisbee tournament as a college student - Arizona Sectionals. We played really well - the team has improved a ton since the beginning of the year. We lost to U of Arizona's A Team (they're very good, ranked maybe #20 or #30 in the country), beat their B team, then played U of New Mexico. In a tournament about a month ago they absolutely destroyed us 13-1. We came out hot this time, and led 5-1 before they knew what had hit them. Then we got complacent and they came back to lead 7-6. Then we went on a run and finally ended up leading 12-11. We have two chances to win it that point - I drop one pass I should have had, and one our guys gets footblocked (!!) on a huck that probably would have won it. They score. 12-12. We have two chances that point to win it. We turn it over both times. I almost get a layout D; they score on the next throw. Heartbreaking loss. We played ASU next, but were completely out of gas, and let our rookies play most of the game. We lost.

Andy Pettitte gave up a leadoff HR to Marlon Byrd (on a 0-2 cutter that didn't get inside far enough), but then looked good against the next 3 hitters, getting a K and two groundouts to the left side. Biggio struck out but then Willy T drew a walk (YEAH!) but got doubled off 1st when Berkman flew out to deep left-center. Keep drawing those walks, Willy.

Preston Wilson singles with 1 out in the 2nd, then gets thrown out trying to steal 2nd. Jason Lane draws his 6th walk of the season (the hits will come, Jason, stay patient), and Brad Ausmus hits his tried-and-true weak dribbler to SS to end the inning.

Pettitte gets two quick outs in the top of the 3rd, then Marlon Byrd draws a 10 or 11 pitch AB walk (it's good to see him doing well, his is an interesting story), Royce Clayton lays down a perfect bunt, but Vidro grounds out to 3rd on the 1st pitch. Keep getting those groundballs to the left side of the infield, Andy.

Haha, what an inning - Adam Everett leads off the bottom of the 3rd with a routine ground ball to the SS, but he hustles down the line and Clayton throws it away. Everett on 2nd, 0 out. Pettitte tries to bunt him over, but Drese throws a wild pitch and Everett gets to 3rd. On a 3-2 count, Pettitte singles through the right side! Biggio pops out to 1st on a hanging breaking ball. Taveras gets down 0-2, then hits a hard ground ball up the middle that Drese kicks and then gets through the left side! Pettitte gets to 3rd. Lancey Lance strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. Ensberg singles to LF! Taveras scores from 1st when Soriano bobbles the ball!! YEAH! Preston (who I really like to watch play, he brings a lot of energy, seems like a great fit for the Astros) strikes out. 3-1 Astros!

WOW! What a finish - we're up 6-5 in the 9th, Brad Lidge gets 2 quick outs, then gets ahead of Jereny Hermida 0-2. He walks him. Then he gets ahead of Miguel Cabrera 0-2. He singles through the left side. Then he gets ahead of Josh Willingham 0-2. Willingham works it back to 3-2, hits a little bloop ground ball past the mound and Adam Everett BAREHANDS it and throws to Berkman to get Willingham by a step!!! YEAH!!!

Whew. Chad Qualls gave up the 5th run, Wheeler looked great, and Lidge made me damn nervous, but it's a win.

Through 6 innings we're up 6-4 - 1st inning 2-run HR's by Lance Berkman and Preston Wilson off of Brian Moehler did most of the damage (Biggio has 2 hits and Ensberg is 0-for-0 with 3 walks). Wandy went 5, so he's in line for the win, but he did not pitch very well (5 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K) - he was lucky to get 3 double plays turned behind him. Hopefully Qualls / Wheeler / Lidge shut the door in the 7th / 8th / 9th. Jason Lane could use a hit. Oh, and Eric Munson is starting - maybe he'll become Wandy's regular catcher?

Yikes. In the first Astros game that I've watched in quite a while (by the way, Andy, why did you get MLB.TV if all the Astros games are blacked out for you?) Andy Pettitte got hammered and our offense did very little again. Pettitte's line (4.2 IP, 13 H, 10 R (7 earned), 1 BB, 3 K, 3 HR) was fugly - he was just way too hittable, leaving fastballs over the middle of the plate and hanging a few breaking balls. I'm sure he'll bounce back, but it wasn't pretty. I'm actually more worried about the offense than I am about Pettitte. Preston Wilson and Jason Lane are both 0-for-2006, we have 2 extra base hits in as many games...ah well. It's early, and at least we've drawn 7 walks. Wandy vs. Brian Moehler tonight. Let's see some offense.

Backe's back is bothering him, and Garner has already said he might miss a start. It's never a good thing when a starting pitcher begins the season with an injury, but on the positive side, we can just move Wandy and Buchholz up a start to give Backe some extra rest. Backe's sore back may also have accounted for his terrible outings at the end of spring training. Backe will undoubtedly be a huge factor in the team's success this season. I don't expect a 3.50 ERA or 15 wins, but he needs to have the best season of his young career if our team wants to have a shot at the postseason.

By the way, I'm don't really buy into the whole "one-run game" stat, but a team that knows how to win close games is usually a playoff team. The Indians' run differential was much better than the White Sox's, but the White Sox won a ton of close games, and the Indians lost a bunch — many of them to their Central rivals. So last night's 1-0 win, while not particularly encouraging, can be seen as a good sign. I have a feeling we're going to need to win a lot of close, low-scoring games.

Pettitte vs. ex-Cub Sergio Mitre tonight.

Roy O and the Astros beat Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins 1-0 on — get this — a wild pitch. That's it. No home runs, no RBI... a wild pitch. Interesting start to the season, but a win's a win, and we'll sure as heck take it.

I didn't get to watch the first 5 innings because I was working and my mlb.tv account had it blocked out. Apparently I missed a long celebration of the NL pennant, and a particularly sentimental cheering of the great Jeff Bagwell.

The game itself was great. I love watching pitchers' duels like this... every at-bat becomes so meaningful, so gut-wrenching. Roy and Dontrelle each brought their A-games. Like I said, I didn't catch the first half of the ballgame (I was following on ESPN's GameCast). But I did notice a few positive things from the offensive side in the later innings. First, both Everett and Taveras looked relaxed and patient at the plate. I hope Gary Gaetti worked with them a lot over the winter to improve their plate discpline. How many times did they swing at pitches in the dirt last year? Everett, I think, has worked on his stance. He seems to be keeping his weight back more, and his left leg is little straighter. His stance is wider and a little bit more open, too, which makes me think he's trying for more power... It appears as if he's trying to emulate Ensberg's stance, although not nearly to the degree Mo takes it.

I wouldn't worry about our one run tonight. WIllis was the Cy Young runner-up last year, and, despite his terrible team, he is a very good pitcher, especially in the first half. Berkman and Ensberg each took a pair of walks, so that's a plus. Biggio notched his 605th career double, a liner down the left-field line with two outs that eventually led to our only run of the ballgame. Wilson through Everett didn't do squat, going 0-for-14. Jack and I have deicded that Lane and Wilson are actualy identical twins that were separated at birth. They're so similar: high K's, low BB's, but can hit the ball to Beaumont. I just hope they decide to stagger their slumps. They both will get into funks at some point during the season, and if they do it at the same time, that's four bad hitters in a row.

Oh, and Lidge allowed a leadoff walk (he rubbed his right hand a couple times, as if he couldn't get a grip on the ball), but struck out Miggy Cabrera with a slider in the dirt and got Mike Jacobs to roll into the DP. Go Lidge.

Hate to say it, but this was pretty much an extension of spring training. This Marlins team couldn't win a minor league championship. (As a side note, how much FUN would it be to play for the Marlins right now? No expectations, no pressure. Of course, with Girardi around, there's no facial hair, but this pack of 20-year-olds is going to have a blast this year, 60 wins or not.) But seriously, we caught a break opening with the Marlins. Pettitte and Backe should take advantage. And the Nationals' lineup this weekend won't be a whole lot better.

Speaking of which, I hope the Astros can take advantage of their fairly weak schedule to start the year. After the Nats, we head out West to face the Giants and D-backs (we miss Brandon Webb), then we return home for the Brewers, Pirates and Dodgers. We finish April in Berkman's favorite ballpark, Cincinnati. The Giants, D-Backs and Brewers could all contend this year, but right now the Astros are better than all of them.

Let's go, Pettitte!

I found a link to an excellent Roy Oswalt article at the Astros Daily message boards. It's under the title "On Oswalt". Here are some of my favorite quotes:

Before Game 6, McLane approached Oswalt in the Astros' clubhouse. "Roy, I'll make a deal with you," he said. "If you win the game tonight, I'll buy you a bulldozer." Oswalt lurched to his feet: "Deal!" Oswalt blew away Albert Pujols with a 95 mph fastball in the first, held St. Louis to three hits and a run over seven innings, and as he finished his work and walked toward the dugout, a thought echoed in his brain: That bulldozer's mine.

Oswalt was so damn good that game. That was his introduction to the casual baseball fan.

His arm went bad in the minor leagues. The Astros tinkered with his mechanics, tried to change the position of his foot, and he started to get sore in his shoulder, bad enough that he began taking painkillers on his own. When he went home for the offseason in the fall of 1999, his arm was killing him. One day, as he worked underneath the hood of his truck, standing on a metal bucket, he reached for the spark plug wires and electricity surged through him. He jerked himself away from the truck, fell to the ground and, after catching his breath, he lifted his arm. No pain.Doctors told Oswalt the shock had loosened an impingement in his shoulder. He'd gotten a break, and he intended to take advantage of it.

That's something you couldn't put in a Disney movie. No one would believe it.

Oswalt competes off the mound, too. A few seasons back, he and Wade Miller would pass the time during games by pitching pumpkin seeds from the dugout. Inevitably, they'd wind up in a war of distance flicking, and one day Oswalt flicked the mother of all pumpkin-seed flicks. It landed on the mound, right next to the foot of pitcher Shane Reynolds, who almost balked. Then-manager Jimy Williams glared at the two young pitchers and Oswalt thought fast: He stared at Miller. Williams stared at Miller. Convicted, without a trial.

HAHAHAHA. Oh, and Jimy Williams is a moron.

In Game 2 of the NLCS, Oswalt faced Jim Edmonds in the fifth inning with two outs, runners on first and second, Astros up 2-0. Edmonds fouled off fastball after fastball. Full count, with Pujols looming in the on-deck circle. Ausmus jogged to the mound. Fearing a walk, Ausmus wanted Oswalt to keep throwing fastballs. Oswalt wanted to throw a slider. "Man, that's Pujols on deck," Ausmus said."I don't care," Oswalt replied."Fine," Ausmus said. Oswalt threw a slider and Edmonds was caught looking. Inning over.

Suck it, Jedmonds. Suck it long, and suck it hard. He still owns us, though.

You remember what he said: He'll play 10 years, and then he'll figure it out. But Roy Oswalt already knows what he wants, what he needs, and it's all right here.Five more years. Could he really walk away?Of course he could.

Wow - only five more years? Say it ain't so, Roy. Still, it's good to see someone who isn't all about the money.

I agree with Andy that our defense should be solid - Baseball Prospectus 2006 loves Taveras's range (more on that in a sec), Everett is great, Biggio is only a little below average, and Ausmus is above average. That's good up the middle, Wilson and Lane are ok, Ensberg is good, Berkman is ok. All in all, a very good defensive team.

I don't share your enthusiasm about Wandy, however. Your comparison to Zito is interesting because Zito is a bit of an exception to the rule - he's succeeded despite a declining K rate and an increasing walk rate. He's probably due for a fall. I didn't know Wandy was a GB pitcher - that bodes well for him in MMP and with our good infield defense, particularly the left side. I don't expect too much out of him with his 2005 BB / K ratio (53 / 80), but we don't really have anyone better.

I promised some BP 2006 Astros nuggets; here are my favorites: (you want more? buy the book!)

"The last sting of the Killer's B's was last year, especially if the Rocket's really retired....Whether they sign the 43-year old Clemens or not, the Astros are already a very old team...The farm system has one or two interesting prospects but no stars."

"One example of their front-office problems is the two-year deal recently proferred to Brad Ausmus, which locks him up in his Age 37 and 38 seasons for 7.5 million...a truly and thoroughly bad hitter, he's been ineffective his entire career, with only the most transitory blips to make you wonder if he's achieved adequacy...His defense, while solid, doesn't approach the level necessary to make up for his anemic bat."

"All clubs rebuild. It has to be done. The Astros...need to rebuild right now. This year is an opportunity for the Astros to take some chances, make some investments, and start building the next great Astros team. That team probably won't include Bagwell, Biggio, or Clemens, and it certainly won't include Brad Ausmus."

Jeff Bagwell - "Long term contracts for players already in their 30's arent a good idea....when the Astros finally made the World Series, they did so in spite of Bagwell's contract, not because of it."

Lance Berkman - "He's pretty much run out of value defensively, but he's a nice guy to stick in the middle of the lineup and depend on for legitimate #3 hitter production."

Craig Biggio - "He's aged gracefully....defensively, his return to 2nd base worked out about as well as anyone could have expected...he wasn't good, but he wasn't Alfonso Soriano either."

Morgan Ensberg - "If he can hang onto his dramatic increase in walks, there's no reason he can't cement his place among the NL's best players. Ensberg is an underrated defender as well; he may not look as graceful as Eric Chavez or Scott Rolen, but he's not far out of their class."

Adam Everett - "Shortstop is a wasteland in the NL right now...Everett should be healthy to begin the 2006 season, and should perform pretty well versus his peer group."

Jason Lane - "Lane finally demonstrated some of the power that the stathead community has waited for...his plate discipline took a bit of a slide, which isn't terribly unusual in a hitter's first full season. Lane's defense in the outfield is better than publicly perceived."

Hunter Pence - "Pence is the only real prospect in the organization, but he's got some strikes against him...it shouldn't be hard to keep an eye on him in this system - he'll be the only guy in double digits in the home run column."

Willy Taveras - "A better player than most think, Taveras didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in his first full season in the majors, but his defense was astonishing...he showed some significant plate discipline and even a little power in the minors...he might be able to combine all the skills he's shown and have a reasonably valuable career."

Roger Clemens - "The only question left about Clemens is whether or not he's the best pitcher to ever walk the planet. A player of his caliber can be the difference between contender and champion, and World Series rings have a certain compulsive magic about them."

Brad Lidge - "Don't believe the backlash - Lidge is a complete and utter badass and could put up numbers in 2006 that would make Goose Gossage proud."

Roy Oswalt - "Great control, an above average K rate, a slow curve that makes hitters wish they were facing Johan Santana, and he's tough to steal on? A few things break his way, and he's vintage Pedro."

Wandy Rodriguez - "He wasn't ready to be pushed into the starting rotation, so while he had a couple of decent runs during the season, he got whacked around for mostof the year. He lacks the stuff to get by without nibbling, and doesn't really miss enough bats."

That's it for now. Opening Day can't come soon enough.

Our defense should be very, very good in 2006. Our most important defenders (SS, C and CF) could all be in the top 5 in their respective positions. Taveras made some rookie mistakes last year, but he should be making better reads and jumps in 2006. His speed and underrated arm make him a quality defender. Everett saves runs with his glove; he's not flashy but takes care of business. Ausmus has lost quite a bit in the throwing-out-runners department, but he brings so much to our pitching staff. (Backe has been pitching to Munson this spring... could it be a reason for his bad outings? Maybe.)

Our corner outfielders are solid. Wilson, normally a CF, should have an easy time in our small left field. And although Lane looks like he's lumbering around out in right, he makes plays and has a decent arm to hold runners. Ensberg in underrated, as is Berkman. Maybe I'm just comparing him to Lamb, but I was really impressed with his defense at first last year. More time there can only help. And besides, who can't play first (besides Bagwell...) Biggio's declining in range, but he should be solid enough to make the plays when he can get to them.

Pitcher A
129.2 IP, 5.60 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, 19 HR

Pitcher B
228.1 IP, 6.74 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 26 HR

Clearly, Pitcher B is superior. But Pitcher A (Wandy) isn't too far behind Pitcher B (Zito). Thing is, Wandy is actually a big groundball pitcher (1.34 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio). So with better control — and hopefully a few more Ks — he could be a serviceable starter.

You wouldn't know it by looking out the windows of the office I share with 6 other Math Graduate Teaching Assistants, but it's baseball time. In the past few days I've purchased MLB.TV for the season (only $99.95 for every out-of-market game - I can't afford not to!) and bought Baseball Prospectus 2006. So far I've just been flipping through it, looking at my favorite players and at the Astros team pages. Here are a few of their more interesting Astros observations:

Crap! I left the book at home. Guess my next post will be all about BP'06. Sorry about that. Anyway, the book seems solid so far, but there have been a surprising number of typos, as if it was rushed out a little quickly.

I have my first fantasy baseball draft today. It's with a bunch of guys that my brother knew in college, and they're a bunch of ultimate frisbee bums, so I should win the league easily. I'll let you know how it goes.

The Indians are going to dominate for a long time. They've signed Johnny Peralta, Victor Martinez, and Grady Sizemore (they signed Sizemore today) to 5+ year deals, they control Travis Hafner and C.C. Sabathia throug 2008, they're going to sign Cliff Lee to a long-term deal, Andy Marte doesn't reach arbitration for a while....quite simply, they're awesome. I'm jealous.

The Astros had their initial insurance claim on Jeff Bagwell rejected. According to most of what I've read, this will end up going to court, so we'll have to wait and see.

Somehow I missed the biggest story of all: Jeff Bagwell to begin season on the DL.

Definitely read that link, but the basic story is that Bagwell is going to begin the season on the 60-day DL, have more surgery to have bone spurs removed, and attempt to play later in the year. I've given Bagwell a hard time for insisting on trying to play when his body is clearly breaking down, but you have to feel for the guy. All he wants to do is play baseball. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. At least he's admitting he's not ready to start Opening Day. If he never plays another game, Jeff Bagwell is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest Astro of all time.

DAMN IT:

The Astros likely will open the season with Craig Biggio batting in the leadoff spot ahead of Willy Taveras, which is what manager Phil Garner did toward the end of last season and in the playoffs.

Biggio, who batted first in 18 games last year and second in 100 games, has been hitting leadoff for much of spring training. Garner isn't com-
mitted to a lineup, but liked Biggio at the top last season.

"The reason I moved it last year was I felt like Biggio was doing a good job of driving in runs and Willy's natural stroke was to hit it to the right side of the diamond, and I also felt like with Willy's ability to bunt with Biggio on base, it adds a new dimension," Garner said.

Remember when Jimy Williams used to bunt in the 1st inning if our leadoff hitter got on base? It might just start happening again. Biggio just isn't a leadoff hitter anymore. His on-base percentage has dropped the last four years in a row, and he's morphed into more of a power hitter. It would be better to drop him in the lineup and put on-base guys like Ensberg and Berkman closer to the top. A lineup of

Taveras
Ensberg
Berkman
Wilson
Lane
Biggio
Everett
Ausmus

is probably the best we could do. Putting two of our four worst hitters at the top two spots sucks.

Phil Garner has a great quote in an article on Jason Lane:

"Batting average is a horrible way to evaluate a player's performance," Garner said.

But he then immediately follows it up with this gem:

"A guy can be hitting .300 and every time you have a runner on base in the seventh, eighth and ninth inning, he's striking out. That's a very poor hitter.

"Likewise, a guy can be a .260 hitter but every time he gets somebody on base in the seventh, eighth, ninth innings in a close ballgames, he's the guy driving it somewhere. That guy's a much better hitter and much more productive."

So batting average doesn't matter, but batting average with runners in scoring position does? I don't get it. You can't base how good a hitter someone is based on how he does with runners in scoring position. It's just as important to actually GET runners in scoring position. And you have to get on base to do that.

Bob Hulsey of Astros Daily has a nice Astros preview over at the Hardball Times. Check it out here. Damn, that was a good Villanova / BC game.

First of all, a "Congratulations" to Aaron Gleeman, fellow baseball blogger, who was profiled in this week's Sports Illustrated. Check out his calm and composed reaction at his blog.

It was nice to see the Astros offense get going today, as we pounded out 13 runs and 16 hits. Roy Oswalt got the win with the following line:

7 IP 9 H 3 ER 1 BB 6 K 94 pitches

It seems like he's ready for the season to start. A few recent Astros articles in the Chronicle have focused on the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation - supposedly it's down to Zeke Astacio, Taylor Bucholz, and Carlos Hernandez (although Fernando Nieve was also mentioned as a possibility). I'll cast my vote for Astacio right now - he gave up a crapload of home runs last year (23 in 81 IP), but his BB / K ratio was excellent and his minor league numbers the past few years are much better than either Bucholz or Hernandez. Everyone is hot for Bucholz because he did well in the Arizona Fall League and everyone remembers how good Carlos Hernandez was for a few starts a couple of years ago...but they're wrong. Astacio is the better pitcher of the three right now and has by far the most potential of the three. He should be the 5th starter, and I would be surprised if he doesn't put up better numbers than Wandy Rodriguez.

I dropped my rental car off today and ran into a bunch of 'ski hippies' in downtown Flagstaff. We finally got our first few inches of snow and have since been overrun by ski bums. Actually, I love it - it's good for the economy, and they're fun to be around. Except when they 'accidentally' hit me with a snowball.

It's been a fun-filled Spring Break so far - JT and I caught an A's/Royals spring training game (Joe Blanton got hammered by the mighty Royals offense), drove up to Vegas for a few days, and then back to Flagstaff through some snow. Now it's time to get back to work.

As far I can tell there haven't been any Astros news lately. Jeff Bagwell is still trying to play through pain, it looks like Wandy has wrapped up the #4 spot (can't say I'm thrilled about that, but I couldn't see anything else happening), and Eric Munson has been hitting well. Unfortunately, he's also Mike Lamb's identical twin - they're both left-handed backup corner infielders with some pop. Carrying them both on the roster would be inefficient (though not terrible). I did read that Garner was trying to considering Munson as a backup catcher, which would be pretty sweet. A .400 SLG% from a catcher? Whoa.

I enjoyed the WBC also - the excitement level among the fans (especially from other countries) was amazing. The timing of it is still weird, but I think it's a great idea.

Wow, the WBC was fantastic. Did anyone expect Cuba in the final? And how about Japan beating Korea on its third try and scrounging together 10 runs in the final? Great stuff.

Meanwhile, Brandon Backe got pounded today by the Tigers. He gave up nine runs, four homers, ten hits and five walks in 4 1/3 innings. Yikes. Of course, he had ex-Tiger Eric Munson behind the plate, so maybe that explains something (Munson did go 4-for-5 with a homer, though). Bagwell got a few innings in at first base, and Steve Sparks actually had a decent outing: 1 2/3 innings and no baserunners. Opening Day starter!

The LSU-A&M game was fantastic. And what an ending! It's obvious that neither team is on the same level of upper-tier teams like Duke and Bradley, but it is still so much fun to watch all these college players give it their all. Of course, I had Iowa, Pitt and Illinois in the final four, so it's safe to say I have the worst bracket ever.

How bout them Aggies!?! Upset Syracuse 66-58 last night. Acie Law was magnificent, and the defense was stifling. I am officially the worst bracket-picker ever. I had Marquette in the Elite eight.

Not that anyone watched, but Rocket couldn't win for the USA, no thanks to Jeff Francouer and Vernon Wells. We lost to Mexico, 2-1 and didn't advance to the semis. It's Cuba vs. Dominican Republic and Japan vs. South Korea. Should be fun to watch.

Caught our 11-1 loss to the Yankees a couple days ago. Harold Reynolds interviewed Jeff Bagwell and asked him how he felt. "Today i would not be able to play in a major league game," he said. "But thats not to say that i couldn't in a couple of weeks." Same old, same old. I can't tell if he's being pessimistic or just honest.

How bout them Aggies!?! Upset Syracuse 66-58 last night. Acie Law was magnificent, and the defense was stifling. I am officially the worst bracket-picker ever. I had Marquette in the Elite eight.

Not that anyone watched, but Rocket couldn't win for the USA, no thanks to Jeff Francouer and Vernon Wells. We lost to Mexico, 2-1 and didn't advance to the semis. It's Cuba vs. Dominican Republic and Japan vs. South Korea. Should be fun to watch.

Caught our 11-1 loss to the Yankees a couple days ago. Harold Reynolds interviewed Jeff Bagwell and asked him how he felt. "Today i would not be able to play in a major league game," he said. "But thats not to say that i couldn't in a couple of weeks." Same old, same old. I can't tell if he's being pessimistic or just honest.

A Review of

The Last Nine Innings

by Charles Euchner

First of all, let me say that I truly enjoyed this book. Euchner does a great job covering many different baseball topics - sometimes I think he bites off a little more than he can chew, but more on that later.

The book is roughly based on the format of John McPhee's tennis classic, "Levels of the Game", in which McPhee uses a single tennis match between Arthur Ashe and Clark Graebner as an excuse to delve deep into both men's pasts, tennis, life, philosophy, and whatever else he can think of. It's an awesome book, and Euchner says as much in his introduction. His idea is to write a baseball book centered around Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, in which the Diamondbacks and the Yankees play one of the greatest baseball games of modern times.

During the 300 pages of the book, only about 50 will be devoted to on-field action - Euchner likes to take select ideas and run with them, whether it's the history of baseball, the art of pitching, the stats vs. scouts debate, the rise in foreign-born MLB players, etc, etc.

One minor complaint I have at this point is Euchner devotes much of the game's coverage to a few select players: Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Derek Jeter, Luis Gonzalez, Mariano Rivera. These guys are fascinating characters, no doubt, but I'd be equally interested in the bench players / rookies who aren't stars. Then again, that kind of book might not be as interesting to the casual fan.

My favorite section from the book come from the stats vs. scouts chapter, which Euchner neatly summarizes in an argument over Derek Jeter's fielding. I also especially enjoyed a short chapter on batting stances, from the strangeness of Craig Counsell's stance ("He looks like he was trying to knock a spider off the ceiling with a broom"..."He's beautiful.") to the open stance of Luis Gonzalez.

I could go into more detail, but if you want to learn more about a few of the hot topics in baseball or you're a fan of baseball in general or you remember the 2001 World Series fondly, I have one recommendation: Check out this book!

I'll write more about the book later; I have to run.

I'm loving the WBC! The games are intense, with managers and players from both sides giving it their all. Oh, wait... make that, every team but the USA. Sure, we're winning some ballgames, but I just don't see the same enthusiasm and energy from our guys as I see in Venezuela and Puerto Rico and even Korea and Japan. Did anyone see Chipper Jones hit into a double play after the shortstop fell down? Ugh. Now we gotta beat Mexico and hope Korea beats Japan.

I just saw Moises Alou sprint to first faster than I've ever seen him run. The DR just went up 1-0 on a botched roller by Miggy Cabrera for Venezuela. Can't believe one of those teams won't make the semifinal. But that makes this game all the more interesting to watch. Freddy Garcia vs. the Dominican lineup! Oh boy...

By the way, I saw Vince Sinisi playing CF and batting fifth for Team Italy. Big Vince led The Woodlands HS to a state title in 2000 and went to Rice, and he's a cousin of my buddy Garrett. Vince is in AA in the Rangers' system... maybe we'll see him in the majors someday.

I was watching an old Twilight Zone episode the other day... the one where a bunch of people are stuck in a diner and one of them is supposedly an alien. Cops are interrogating the suspects, and the first question they ask is, "Who won the World Series race last year?" Ah, baseball...

It might not feel or look like spring in Flagstaff, Arizona (30 inches of snow over the weekend), but when I turned on the TV and saw a baseball game (Japan / USA in the World Baseball Classic), it sure felt like spring.

I'm cruising through "The Last Nine Innings" - I should finish it early this week. The last chapter I read had an interesting take on the stats vs. scouts (Moneyball vs. Joe Morgan?) debate. I'll write all about it.

I haven't played poker online in close to 6 months, but after reading a little of "The Theory of Poker", by David Sklansky, I realize that I can't wait to start playing again. Not until I get the ol' master's degree, though.

I 'fixed' my I-Pod today: the headphone connection is scratched, but if I shove the headphones in as far as they'll go, then keep them squeezed tight (by placing the I-Pod upside down, or putting a book on top of it, etc.), it sounds great! This is good, since if it keeps snowing like this (although it's not supposed to) I'll be walking to school a lot.

We had ultimate frisbee practice despite 30+ mph winds and the first foot of snow on Friday afternoon (sound familiar, Andy?) It was awesome, although I need some new cleats.

Well, that's it. Astros lose 7-0 to the Dodgers - I know it's just spring training, but our offense isn't exactly lighting it up. No worries?

A quick Astros quote:

Josh Anderson, the Astros' fourth-round choice in the 2003 draft, has earned All-Star honors in each of his three seasons in professional baseball. He led Class AA Corpus Christi in hits (148) and steals (50) last year and was a Texas League All-Star.
"I set goals for myself every year, and last year, I look at it as being a great year," said Anderson, who throws righthanded. "I reached a lot of goals and I learned a lot playing a full season in Double-A, which was good for me. I definitely have no regrets the way things went.
"My goal for this year is as a top-of-the-order leadoff hitter to see a lot of pitches. I want to try to draw more walks, be selective."

Good stuff. Send that memo to Willy Taveras, while you're at it. The Astros are up 5-2 in today's game, thanks to a Charlton Jimerson grand slam. Steve Sparks has worked out of some trouble so far - he's walking guys and giving up hits left and right. Gotta run.

1. Write every day.

2. Write what you know.

- Charles Bukowski

Astros 3, Mets 2 - Zeke Astacio gets the win, with 3 scoreless innings in relief, O-Palm hits a HR, and Roy O gave up 2 runs in 4 innings, Chris Burke played some more SS, Jeff Bagwell got 3 AB's as a DH. That's about it.

Jeff Bagwell update:

Bagwell was quick to say that the shoulder doesn't affect his hitting. His bat is fine, no different than it's been in past Spring Trainings.
"I'm not very good in Spring Training," he said. "But as long as I'm seeing the ball and picking the spin up and things like that, then that's great.
"As I've said all along, the key here is can I throw and hit. Only time will tell that."

Wow, nice answer, Jeff. So no matter how badly you do in spring training, it's only because you're not very good yet, huh? It couldn't possibly be the shoulder. Way to leave youself an easy excuse.

I just received "The Last Nine Innings" in the mail yesterday, and I've been reading it every chance I get. Expect a review soon. I like the writing style a lot - it covers Game 7 of the 2001 Yankees - DBacks World Series, but manages to talk about almost every current baseball topic while doing so.

I don't know what to say about Barry Bonds. Do I think he used steroids? Yep. Do I think many other major leaguers, including Jeff Bagwell, also did? You bet. Asking him to retire is ridiculous. Just because he's a cocky asshole doesn't mean he should be singled out for doing what many others were doing at the same time.

Man, I love Rotoworld - tons of player notes and prospect lists. A sample:

Adam Everett was scratched from today's starting lineup with what the Astros are calling a sprained lower back.He's off to Houston for an examination, making it unlikely that he'll be back in the lineup on Friday. It might not be a bad thing for Everett to a miss a week or so, giving the Astros more of an opportunity to evaluate Chris Burke at shortstop.

More soon.

Oh man. Baseball. As in: BASEBALL.

The Astros lose again - good thing it's Spring Training. But the U.S. lost also to the mighty Canadian squad. Bah.

I was working out my schedule for my last sememster here at NAU and it is jam-freakin'-packed. Spring Break, Vegas, parents moving to Flagstaff, oral exams, finals, graduation....freedom! Oh, and writing about the Astros until I can't write no more! Speaking of which, Roger Clemens again said he's leaning towards retirement today - at least that's what he told USA Today. If he retires....well, I thought last year was a rebuilding year, but maybe this year would be the true rebuilding year.

Anyway, NAU lost in the conference championship to go to March Madness today. Damn. But I can still have a beer or two.

A piece of advice for Carlos Hernandez: do NOT hang a curveball to Big Papi. He will destroy you. And it's too bad, really, because until Papi's ENORMOUS two-run blast off Carlito (his second of the game), the Venezuela-Dominican Republic WBC matchup was fairly close. But Ortiz and Adrian Beltre, who also homered twice, were too much for the Venezuelan pitchers. Oh, Taveras went 0-for-4, but made some good plays in centerfield.

As for the Astros, well … they got beat down by the NY Metropolitans, 7-1. Nieve and Buchholz combined to give up seven runs in six innings, although each pitcher was only charged with one earned run thanks to sloppy defense up the middle. Burke committed yet another error, this time at second base. That's got to be his third or fourth error of the Spring. Not helping his chances of seeing time at short... Of course if he keeps crushing the ball (he hit another double today), it'll be hard to keep him out of the lineup. It sure woulda been nice to rough up Billy Wagner, but he went 1-2-3 against us. Bah.

I know Spring Training is meaningless (after all, the White Sox were 0-6 before winning Monday), but it's hard not to get excited about a 11-1 win. Of course, we started our best lineup (Biggio, Bagwell (DH), Berkman, Ensberg, Wilson, Lane, Ausmus, Everett, Palmeiro) against a bunch of scrub pitchers for the Nats. I could talk about how we batted around in the first inning; how Lane hit another homer; how we drew seven walks as a team … but I won't.

The big news was Brandon Backe. The kid threw three hitless innings and walked only one. And this was against Washington's "real" lineup, if you can call it that. No Soriano, but Vidro, Johnson, Church, Zimmerman, Tucker and Clayton couldn't do squat against Backe. Keep it up, big fella. Trever Miller K'd a couple in his inning: he's been putting up zeros so far. Qualls rebounded from an ugly outing over the weekend with a scoreless inning today.

I hope today's lineup is an indicator of Garner's master plan during the regular season. It's a shame to bench Willy T, but as pinch runner/defensive replacement, his best skills are still being used. Some folks think he ought to start the year at AAA Round Rock, but with Bagwell's (and Wilson's) injury concerns, he might as well stay up. Bagwell appears to be a good fit for the number two spot: he won't have the pressure of having to drive in runs but his keen batting eye and baserunning skills are still very good.

The order of Wilson and Lane shouldn't matter, as they actually are identical twins. Both have dominated so far this spring and might near 30 homers on the season. But whoever bats sixth in front of Ausmus and Everett might not get too many good pitches to see. Of course, those two never saw a pitch they didn't like, so maybe this isn't such a good thing after all.

J.R. House sure is getting a lot of playing time, just not at catcher. First base today, third base yesterday. He's been doing all right, too … maybe Garner should give him a start or two at catcher during a split-squad game to check out his defense and game-calling.

Astros all over the news lately. Spring training is in full swing, with a few positive signs. The WBC is also under way, with Japan and Korea advancing from Pool A. Those two will join the top two teams from America's pool (with Mexico, Canada and South Africa). Notable Astros playing: Lidge and Wheeler (USA), Carlos Hernandez (Venezuela), Taveras (Dominican), Gallo (Italy).

Berkman and Pettitte were on SportsCenter's The Weekend show on Sunday and were interviewed by Linda Cohn. Pettitte didn't have much to say about Clemens' possible return, but said that the team shouldn't bank on having him back — that we need to prepare to play the season with or without him. Berkman was a little critical of the WBC, suggesting it should occur every four years during the middle of the season, a la Olympic hockey. Not a bad suggestion; the U.S. needs as much help as it can get.

Spring training snippets

Friday: Houston 11, Cleveland 5. Bagwell actually led off at DH and scored a pair of runs. Chris Burke hit a triple and started at short, but didn't have to make any plays there. Lane went crazy with a homer and three RBI. Raul Chavez went 3-for-3 , Bruntlett drove in four, and Luke Scott started in center.
On the mound, Taylor Buchholz was brilliant, allowing one hit in two innings. Fernando Nieve got lit up for four runs on four hits and a walk in his two innings, though he struck out three. Jason Hirsh allowed one run on three hits in two.

Saturday: Atlanta 10, Houston 6. Ensberg homered and Preston Wilson went 2-for-2, beating out an infield single and lining a double down the left-field line. "We have a chance to be a really good ballclub," he said. "Hopefully, I'll help the team enough to get us to that next level." Biggio got a pair of hits leading off, and Bagwell went 1-for-3 at DH again. Burke played a couple more innings at short again, and Luke Scott hit a triple while playing center.
Oswalt started and threw 19 pitches in two innings — 15 for strikes. He gave up two hits with a strikeout, throwing only fastballs and curves. "It was nothing major," he said. "I'm staying with basic stuff until I get it going." He said he'll put off work on a changeup and slider until later in the spring. Last year, he tinkered with a split-fingered fastball, then realized his primary pitches had suffered. "I worked on that more than I worked on the basic stuff, so I lost the feel for the first few games of the season," he said.
Wandy and Qualls both got lit up for four runs, but Trever Miller looked sharp.

Sunday: Dominican Republic 12, Houston 8. Here was the lineup for the Dominican: Soriano, Tejada, Pujols, Ortiz, Alou, Beltre, Peña (Willy Mo), Encarnacion, Castillo. Them's good. We started Biggio, Bagwell (DH), Berkman, Ensberg, Wilson, Burke (SS), Palmeiro, Ausmus and Scott. Zeke started and gave up two runs on three hits and four walks. Sparks, Sampson, Muecke and Gutierrez didn't do much better. The big news: Burke committed a fielding error at shortstop and (I think) didn't convert another possible out, though it wasn't scored an error. He did, however, stroke a two-run double in the 5th. Willy Taveras pinch ran for DR (a role that he's perfect for) and scored in the 6th. But somehow he grounded into a double play in the 7th! And apparently Juan Gutierrez pitched the top of the ninth for the ASstros, changed uniforms mid-inning and threw the bottom of the inning for the Dominican! That's awesome.

Split squad: Philly 4, Houston 3. Wow. We actually lost to the Phillies. Good thing it doesn't matter. Not much here: Everett, Lane, Bruntlett and Quintero were the only major leaguers who played. We let a bunch of rookies pitch, and they all did pretty well: Borkowski, Paulino, Albers, Gothreauz and Estrada gave up only one run through 8 innings before Peguero gave up four in 1 1/3. Oh well.

Next up: Washington Monday, NY Mets on Tuesday, Toronto on Wednesday, Mets again Thursday, Washington again Friday. Bagwell should get some time in the field soon enough.

The Astros played their 1st spring training game today, losing 5-2 to the Indians. Craig Biggio and Eric Munson had RBI singles and Steve Sparks gave up all 5 runs (4 earned). Lots of players got a few at-bats; according to Phil Garner, Jeff Bagwell will DH in Friday's game.

I'm heading down to Tucson for an ultimate frisbee tournament tomorrow. Maybe Andy can write a post or two about the next few Astros ST games? Ah, baseball.

I think it's time for an Aaron Gleeman-inspired Link-O-Rama:

I think it's hilarious that Roger Clemens gave up a first-pitch HR to his son Koby and followed that up with a high-and-inside fastball the next time they faced off. Good job, Rocket.

I had forgotten what a tough year Adam Everett had last year - and it had nothing to do with baseball. Here's wishing him the best for this coming year. And maybe an occasional walk or two.

Nice chat with Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus here - he tabs Roy Oswalt as one of the ten most valuable commodities in baseball. I hope he's an Astro for a long time.

The Hardball Times doesn't like our offseason, ranking us 26th out of 30 teams in this list.

My Dad's in town for a few days to check out a house that they somehow bought without ever seeing it in person! This is very unlike my parents. Maybe they're becoming risk takers in their old age.

As major league baseball players everywhere start reporting to camp, I'm starting my fantasy baseball research for this year. I'd be the first one to admit that the categories in fantasy baseball (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters, W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K for pitchers) don't correlate very well to real-life success, but I can adapt. Plus there's money and trash-talking involved.

Here's what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine has to say about the 2006 Astros:

"By standing pat over the winter, the NL champs have weakened themselves. Houston needed a combined 675 innings from their top 3 starters at a 2.43 ERA to win the wildcard. Roger Clemens claims he's not returning...If the Big Three can't repeat, another starter has to step up...Brandon Backe is not recommended...The back end of the rotation only needs to reach the sixth inning because of Houston's excellent bullpen. Minute Maid Park makes any righty hitter a good bet...Craig Biggio looks like he's had it, as evidenced by his age and his .235 - 7 - 20 line away from home...Don't expect Jason Lane or Willy Taveras to get much better."

Well, I may be pessimistic, but I have to agree with most of their comments. We certainly haven't gotten better this offseason - even if Clemens returns, the Big Three can't be as good as last year and we're still looking at Taveras, Everett, and Ausmus in the lineup. If everything breaks right for us we could still be right there in the hunt, but that could be a big if. An injury to Berkman or Ensberg or Oswalt or Pettitte spells doom, and we need Jason Lane, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ezequiel Astacio to be solid all year. Don't get me wrong, I'll root like hell for this team, and watch as many games as I can, but it will be an uphill climb. Then again, that seems to be our preference these last few years.

I was supposed to fly down to Baton Rouge for a reunion with some old friends this weekend. I got about 30 miles from Flagstaff (I was flying out of Phoenix) when my front left tire blew out and took a hefty chunk of my front left fender (directly above the tire) with it. I called AAA, and they said it wasn't safe to drive - too much exposed wiring. I had to get towed back to Flagstaff. I called the folks to see if there were any later flights, but nothing worked out well and I still would have had to figure out a way to get back to Flagstaff at midnight on Sunday night. On the bright side, it's been time for me to get a new-ish car for a while now - no more putting it off.

It's a beautiful day outside (up to 55/60 degrees in Flagstaff these days), so off I go.

Andy's latest post was #450 at The Juice Box. Huzzah! I am also thrilled that baseball is back, and I'm pumped to start reading spring training updates, preparing for my fantasy baseball draft, and start posting every single day (or more) again. It has been an interesting offseason for our family - it looks like my parents will be moving out to join me in Flagstaff, which I'm sure they'll enjoy. It will be nice having them around, especially because their house has an indoor hot tub.

I will indeed have a big decision in May. I will graduate from NAU with a Master's Degree in Statistics, and don't plan on starting a PhD program anytime soon, so it looks like I'll have to find a real job. Or will I? At the moment my most likely next step would be to get a job as an instructor in the math & statistics department here. I've enjoyed teaching, it's an excellent department, I can keep doing a few river trips in the summer, I stay in Flagstaff, I get summers off....the list goes on. It makes a lot of sense. Maybe too much sense? Another option would be to try and find a job as a baseball statistician. I've been really lazy with this, and I haven't sent out any resumes lately. I have a feeling that as much as I like writing about and reading about baseball statistics, I might not like working in that field nearly as much. Maybe it's just my imagination? The third main option would be some kind of service to the country. Peace Corps / Teach for America / etc. - something in that vein. I'd like to give something back although I don't agree with a few current political situations. And the dark horse would be to take a year off and travel around the world, writing updates on my blog and having a great time. The sensible answer would be to do that later since I just did that 2 years ago, but the romantic in me says that once I start a real job it won't be so easy to get away. All right, that's enough about that. We'll see what happens.

I was going to write about what my favorite fantasy baseball magazine said about the Astros and their top players, but I left it at home. Oops. Next post coming soon.

Pitchers & Catchers!

Baseball's back! Finally! It's been a cold and miserable weekend in Houston, but my heart is aglow with baseball fever. Oh, what joy I felt when I saw Roy, Brad, Andy and Brandon in Astro uniforms again! It really was a surreal moment knowing that the next eight months will be filled with our great national pasttime.

It has been a weird offseason, both for the Astros and the Wade family. The team didn't do a whole heck of a lot, making their customary conservative and modest — if not downright boring — moves like adding Trever Miller and re-signing Brad Ausmus. We took a gamble not offering Clemens arbitration, but I truly think he's only seriously considering two clubs: the Astros or the AARP. Our most productive move was the addition of Preston Wilson. He immediately improves our lineup ad our bench, but his presence alone won't solve our offensive woes.

In the Wade family, things were a little more shaken up. Jack will have a big decision coming up after graduating this Spring. The parents will be joining him after buying a house in Flagstaff this week. Andy, meanwhile, will be the lone Texas representative come summer after taking a job with a newspaper in Bryan.

But back to our favorite ball club. In the Chronicle and on local television coverage, all the pitchers and catchers mentioned the short offseason, referring to the extra month of baseball they played in the playoffs.

Chad Qualls: "It came too quick. This is the shortest offseason I've ever had. … I might actually need these six weeks to get back into shape a little bit."

Mike Gallo: "It feels like I just got done playing about a month ago."

What are these guys talking about? To me, it feels like years since the World Series ended. I've been waiting months for Spring Training, and it'll probably feel like another few months 'til the season actually starts.

Pettitte specifically mentioned the absence of his partner in crime: "For the last seven years we've been sidekicks. There's no doubt I miss him being down here, for sure." Many players, coaches and regular folks around Houston appear confident Clemens will return in May, but it's anything but a sure thing. He says he won't know until after the WBC if he's going to play, so we'll just have to wait it out...

A few hilarious tidbits from Kissimmee:

• Garner received a gift from a friend in Russia: a bulava, which is a war club with a sharp points on the head (think Final Fantasy). "It's a symbol of power," Garner said. "I'm going to use this on reporters and players." (Sometimes I think Richard Justice could use a little macing…)

• Garner also didn't recognize Russ Springer when he walked into the manager's office. "Wheels? Did you lose some weight?" Garner asked, referring to Dan Wheeler. Apparently Garner's old anf confused and sometimes mixes up those two. Hope that never happends during close games.

Chris Burke was the first position player to roll into camp. Of of our hitters, I think Burke has the most to prove. Right now, he's our No. 1 option off the bench if anyone gets hurt. He's doesn't have a starting job this year (or even a platoon position), so he's got to earn every at-bat he gets. Burke has been asked to play shortstop on occasion this spring in addition to second base and the outfield.

The Chronicle had a nice piece on Lidge's mentality heading into 2006. He's saying all the right things and really doesn't seem upset on his disappointing postseason. Unlike everyone else, he's more focused on the upcoming season than the finished one.

Lastly, I'll list some random personal thoughts about Spring Training and the season as a whole:

• Don't simply ignore the elephant in the room that is Bagwell's shoulder. He should be examined and cleared to participate before every workout. He's a great player but also a very large investment, and we need to make sure he's taken care of. And if he's unable to participate, an ultimatum has to be reached.

• The back of the rotation should be open to everyone. In my mind, neither Wandy nor Zeke pitched well enough last year to earn "frontrunner" status entering 2006. Give Hernandez, Hirsh and Nieve equal opportunities to prove themselves.

• Let Preston Wilson play some centerfield. I know he'd be a disaster in The Juicebox, what with all the nooks and crannies. But If Bagwell can play, Taveras should under no circumstances take at-bats away from Lane or Wilson.

• See what the younguns can do. Luke Scott played like a bat out of hell in Venezuela. If he keeps it up, how can we leave him off our roster?

• Backe finally has pressure on him. Right now, he's our third starter, which means he needs to be a) good and b) reliable. Everyone knows he can pitch great games, but he has yet to pitch well throughout a whole season. It's about time he chanelled his playoff energy into every start. If he can't, he might not have a chance to make another great postseason start.

• Lastly, Ausmus and Everett better recognize that we almost replaced them this winter, and for good reason: They can't hit. I am sick to death of the "defense-minded" cop-out. It's fine if Ausmus doesn't hit for much power, but he needs to contribute at the plate by having good at-bats, taking pitches, making contact and driving the ball. He did this last year, but can he keep it up? And I wish Everett would finally get it through his head that we don't want him hitting home runs. We need him to get on base, and that means not trying to pull the ball all the time. Hell, take a bunting lesson from Willy. Get. On. Base.

I just finished watching the NBA All-Star Game. It was cool being in Houston and all, but the actual game was preposterous. I think Shaq dunked a ball in the fourth quarter and hung on the rim until his team came back to his end of the court. Admittedly, the game meant absolutetly nothing. Also admittedly, basketball is something of a showboat sport, at least more so than baseball. Players often hang on rims and pump up the crowd with various antics. This never happens in baseball. The closest thing I can think of is Barry Bonds lifting up Torii Hunter for robbing him of a home run. But at least that was between innings. In the MLB All-Star game, people watch to see great players play baseball, and it's often a great game. In the NBA All-Star game, many people watch to see a great game, but at least as many watch to see who's going to bring down the house with a huge dunk or a stylish lay-up. This isn't necessarily a bad thing — I don't think it takes away from the game either way — but the NBA ASG seems like more of a laugher than anything else. At least in baseball, they play for home-field advantage, but I don't think this would change a whole lot in the NBA. Oh well...

Spring Training!

Is anyone excited about the World Baseball Classic? Does anyone care? I'm not losing any sleep over it, but fan interest seems to be virtually nonexistent. At least in the States. But what's more disgraceful is that players don't want to represent America. I keep seeing guys pull out of the WBC because they want to be ready for Spring Training. They signed a big contract, and they want to honor it. They want to make sure they're completely healthy. What a load of crap. I can understand pitchers who've undergone surgery, but come on! Grow a pair. I think starting pitchers will only throw three or four games anyway. As for the hitters, there's no excuse not to get out there and play your heart out for your country. That's what all the other countries are going to do.

What's really going to bug me is when we lose to Belize or Ecuador or the one-man team that is The Netherlands, everyone will get all pissed off about it. Of course we're going to lose. But only when we do will people whine about not playing. This could be the best baseball gig in decades, but the players are making it the worst.

Meanwhile, the Astros still face a rotation conundrum. As in, who starts after Oswalt, Pettitte and Backe. We got Wandy and Zeke, our (Ha!) experienced pitchers; Hirsh and Buchholz, our true rookies; and Carlos Hernandez, our ace-in-the-hole finally back from injury. We ought to give Carlos as much of a chance as everyone else. I'm sure we will. I've heard he's back up to the low-90s on his fastball. This guy was pretty good way back when in '02 and '03. It's taken him a lot longer than normal to recover, but he might be the guy that steps up and performs.

Andy and I met up for some fun in the sun in Las Vegas this past weekend. We were there to play ultimate for Northwestern, despite the fact that neither of us currently go to that fine university. It was a great time; we played 4 of the top 10 teams in the country and played them close, including a sweet JWade-to-AWade connection for a score against #1 Wisconsin. I, of course, take all the credit. I also won a mighty $8 at poker - watch out, world. Oh, and no strip clubs, sadly. But In-N-Out Burger? You're goddamn right.

Not too much to talk about regarding the Astros. Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days! Holy crap. I better start doing my fantasy baseball research (JT's already started). Lance Berkman says he doesn't care if he plays OF or 1B, which is good, 'cause we might not know for a few weeks yet. Phil Garner says Wandy and Zeke are the favorites for the #4 and #5 spots but Jason Hirsh, Carlos Hernandez and Fernando Nieve will be looked at (good), and he still prefers two lefties in the bullpen (despite teams such as the Angels and...someone else...doing just fine without any lefties). Bagwell is still iffy, Chris Burke should get some AB's at shortstop, and Opening Day can't come soon enough.

The Astros avoided arbitration with Morgan Ensberg, agreeing to a 1 year / 3.5 million dollar deal. This is a good move, obviously - the question is whether we should have tried to sign Ensberg to a longer deal. I'm a huge Ensberg fan - he hit .283 / .388 / .557 with 36 bombs and 85 walks, which is absolutely huge. However, he is already 30 years old, and I believe he doesn't reach free agency until after '08 (edit: it could well be '07, though). I don't think a multi-year deal is necessary at this point. If he puts up another big year or two, then go for it. Of course, it might cost us more then...

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Rocket will return to the Astros on May 1. If so, GREAT! Wandy and Zeke both starting all year...yikes. I like the idea of Wandy and Zeke having a 'tryout' in April and whoever does better becomes the 5th starter at that point, with the other moving to the bullpen. This might just help Clemens stay strong all year - he looked tired in September and October. And he is 43.

Purpura and Garner have finally decided to try playing Chris Burke at SS occasionally. This is awesome. Burke needs playing time wherever he can get it, and it looks like that will be at 2B (where I hope he starts once a week, to pace Biggio) and SS. Management has said that Burke doesn't have the arm for SS, but 1) he played there in college and 2) David Eckstein is still in the majors, isn't he? It's definitely worth a shot, particulary with 654 OPS Adam Everett there otherwise.

I'm heading to Vegas this weekend to watch (and play in) a big college ultimate tournament. Hopefully I won't lose too much money while I'm there - you'd think my statistical background would prevent that. You'd think....

Astros avoid arbitration with Ensberg, who signs for the midpoint at $3.8 million. Huzzah. by the way, he made 500K last year! Should we consider a long-term deal? Not necessarily. The big fella's already 30, and he'll be an Astro for at least three more years. Whether we sign him to a deal that takes him through those years or not doesn't really matter. If Morgan dominates each year, he'll get more money from the organization, which is what I fully expect him to do.

After the boring Super Bowl, I can't stop thinking about baseball. Only four weeks 'til pitchers and catchers! In my spare time at work, I thought I'd talk about a few teams I think might surprise next year. We start in Toronto:

Blue Jays
Rotation: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, Towers
Lineup: Johnson/Catalanotto, Aaron Hill, Wells, Overbay, Glaus, Hillenbrand/Hinske, Molina, Rios, Russ Adams
Bullpen: Ryan, Chulk, Downs, Frasor, Schoeneweis, Speier, Walker

I love it when owners 1) have a plan about their team and 2) are honest with their fans about it. I loved it when the Indians said it was time to rebuild and dumped Thome, Colon, Alomar, and all their stars that led the team in the late '90s. They made smart trades, got a bazillion prospects and, after only three or four years, are back among the AL elites.

The Blue Jays are similar, but opposite. Management finally said the time is right to increase payroll and construct an exciting, competitive team. They couldn't have asked for better timing. The Red Sox and Yankees are on the verge of self-destruction, and the door is open for a run at the AL East.

The Jays' offseason moves were a little, shall we say, over-the-top. Forking over $100 million dollars for two pitchers is a bit Steinbrenner-esque. Nonetheless, management lived up to its promise to sign playmakers, and A.J. and B.J. certainly fit that bill. Now, after waiting for Bengie Molina's price tag to drop a few million dollars, they collected three of the top free agents available.

On the trade market, the Jays were also big players… almost too big. They snagged Overbay from the Brewers and traded the still-young Orlando Hudson to Arizona for a rejuvenated Troy Glaus. For 2006, they're probably better off. But the trades left them with about twenty-two corner infielders. They traded Koskie to the Brew Crew, but they still have Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand and Hinske.

Meanwhile, their middle infield is less than proven. Russ Adams was decent in '05 at shortstop, and would give the team a boost if he repeast last year's .700 OPS. Will LSU grad Aaron Hill assume full-time second-base duties with Hudson's departure? He has upside after a .727-OPS rookie campaign, but is he ready? Wells can be an all-star, but he's been on the decline since 2003. If Alex Rios can live up to his potential and Catalanotta and Reed Johnson don't drop off, the Blue Jays can definitely do some damage.

Last year the Jays' lineup was unbelievably consistent: Every hitter posted an OPS between .700 and .800. With Glaus, Overbay and Molina, the middle of the lineup will be able to score a few more runs.

The rotation is definitely top five in baseball. Burnett may not win 20 games, but he most likely won't implode. Chacin and Towers were great last year, but can they do it again? Lilly posted the worst numbers (5.56, 1.53) since he became a regular starter in 2001, but he might bounce back to league-average. Schoeneweis can make a spot start or two.

If the rotation and the lineup are as stable as last year's and the new additions live up to their billing, the Jays are money. In either case, management has set the team up for an exciting run in '06.

Cubbies
Rotation: Prior, Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch, Williams, (Wood?, Wade Miller?)
Lineup: Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Perez/Cedeño
Bullpen: Eyre, Howry, Ohman, Williamson, Wuertz, Dempster

Yea, I know… they're the Cubs. They've had great teams on paper since 2002, but it really seems like they just don't want to win. Or maybe they don't know how. Still, with guys like Prior, Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez, it's hard to count them out.

Much like the Blue Jays, they overpaid a couple of pitchers. Unfortunately for them, Eyre and Howry might only combine for 150 innings. Still, those two are pretty good. When all is said and done, it's really not about the money, it's about the talent. Dempster was better than expected last year, but he's no elite closer.

I don't think even the Cubs realize how good their rotation can be. Prior and Zambrano are amazing pitchers. Rusch and Williams aren't spectacular but are capable of 4.00 ERAs. Greg Maddux is slipping, but he is Greg Maddux. Obviously, Kerry Wood isn't going to pitch 200 innings anytime soon. Probably not even 100. But as soon as Dusty stops screwing around with his arm, he can be effective out of the pen.

The Cubs actually traded prospects to the Marlins so that they could pay Juan Pierre $6 million for one year. That's not a terrific idea. Of course, Corey Patterson wasn't about to be good again. Not at Wrigley anyway. And after Rafael Furcal went to La-la land, the Cubs needed to move fast to acquire a leadoff man. As long as Dusty keeps Neifi Perez as far away from the top of the order as possible, Lee and Ramirez will actually have runs to drive in.

It's hard to say what the Cubs' outfield will do in 2006. Murton was fantastic in his limited time last year, but it may have been a fluke. Everyone knows Jacque Jones can't hit lefties, but will Dusty use him accordingly? Chicago doesn't really have a good platoon partner for him yet, although Murton would seem to be a perfect fit. Maybe they'll make another move, such as signing Richard Hidalgo.

The middle infield is also up in the air. I'm a big fan of Todd Walker. He's posted an .820 OPS in his two years with the club, but no one in the organization seems to care. Dusty might even sub him out for Jerry Hairston, a mistake. At shortstop, the Cubs are in trouble. Ronny Cedeño is a decent prospect, but he probably isn't ready to be a regular shortstop.

Michael Barrett is awesome. I know, I know… we're supposed to hate him because of the Oswalt thing. But how many catchers in the NL can put up an .800 OPS consistently? Maybe I'm just jealous since we got Ausmus and all.

It's going to take a lot for the Cubs for make the playoffs in 2006. They have the personnel to do it, but can they all keep it together? After all, they are the Cubs.

Rangers
Rotation: Millwood, Eaton, Padilla, … … … John Wasdin … … um … … Kameron Loe?
Lineup: Young, Wilkerson, Teixeira, Blalock, Mench, Nevin, Barajas, Delluci/Nix, DeRosa
Bullpen: Otsuka, Cordero … … … Leicester … … … R.A. Dickey … … … Benoit … … and that's about it.

It only took five years for the Rangers to step up and sign a decent pitcher. Orel Herscheiser can only do so much. Kevin Millwood probably won't lead the AL in ERA again, but he will bring stabilization to a pitching staff that desperately needed it. Eaton and Padilla are capable of being winners, even though Chris Young would have been the better option. I honestly don't know much about the back of the rotation starters. I remember hearing Loe's name a couple of times last yearm but I doubt he'll be a ROTY candidate. They just need a couple of guys who can step up consistently and hopefully keep the game in single digits. Now, if they go out and sign Jeff Weaver, the rotation will be set. (They desperately need Clemens, but I won't even comment on that possibility).

Michael Young was the best shortstop in the game last year. He's knocked in 190 runs in two years as the Rangers' leadoff man. For any other team, Soriano would be hard to replace. The Rangers might actually be better off without him. DeRosa's nothing special, but Soriano wasn't a top-of-the-order guy. Wilkerson or Dellucci will fit better in the #2 spot. We all know what Teixeira can do, but he'll need more balance from the rest of the lineup. Blalock must return to his 2004 form, and Nevin must prove he can still play. If that happens, and Mench doesn't let his all the trade banter go to his head (ha, ha), the Rangers' lineup will once again be among the best in baseball.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the AL West will remind us of last year's NL West. The Angels are considerably worse, and and the Mariners aren't getting a whole lot better. The A's did almost won 90 games last year, but I'm skeptical of Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Dan Johnson and Mark Ellis. The A's actually have a decent rotation and bullpen, which is more than the Rangers can say. All Texas has is Kevin Millwood and Orel Herscheiser.

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These three teams could all make the playoffs in October. It's much more likely that none of them does. The Jays have the best chance, but I wouldn't count the Cubs and Rangers out — if nothing else, they could surprise a lot of folks.