Sunday, January 02, 2005

So apparently the Mets are going to make an offer to Beltran of 7 years, 119 million. To which I can only say: Vaya con Dios, Carlos. There is NO WAY we should match that offer. That's too much money for too many years. I know how good Beltran is. I watched him during the postseason. But I'll be the first to say: thanks for the memories, enjoy New York, see ya later. So take that 6 year / 96 million contract offer off the table, and how about using it to sign Berkman and Oswalt to 4 year / 36 million dollar deals each and make Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez a 3 year / 24 million dollar offer? Trade Lamb for Cruz, sign Antonio Osuna, and you've got a team:

Berkman hurt:

LF Craig Biggio
CF Jose Cruz
1B Jeff Bagwell
RF Jason Lane
3B Morgan Ensberg
2B Chris Burke
SS Adam Everett
C Brad Ausmus

Berkman back:

CF Jose Cruz
3B Morgan Ensberg
RF Lance Berkman
1B Jeff Bagwell
LF Jason Lane
2B Craig Biggio / Chris Burke
SS Adam Everett
C Brad Ausmus

and a staff of:

Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Lowe / Perez
Brandon Backe
Redding / Duckworth / Carlos Hernandez / Ezequiel Astacio / Pete Munro

I didn't realize this before, but I think it is VERY important that we sign one of those possible #3 starters, Lowe or Perez (or make a trade). I do NOT want 2 of those possible #5 starters in our rotation. I was talking with Andy about this; imagine that any of those possible #5 guys has a 30% chance to have a breakout season (like Chris Carpenter last year, or Redding's 2003). The chance that NONE of them will do it would be (0.70)^5, or approximately 17%. So I think the odds are good one of them will be pretty decent next year. Maybe Hernandez will get his velocity back, or Astacio will step never know. But one of them will probably be good. But I doubt two of them will be. SO WE NEED ANOTHER STARTER!!!

Anyway, Purpura and McLane, get of your butt, let Beltran go, and get to work.

Oh right, the bullpen:

Brad Lidge
Chad Qualls
Dan Wheeler
Antonio Osuna
Mike Burns (AWESOME year at AAA last year)
Mike Gallo?
Whoever doesn't make it as the #5 starter?

Not bad. I'd like to sign one more guy than we have now (Osuna, Steve Reed, I dunno). But the moral of the story is it looks like we've been focusing only on Beltran, who is going to get a ridiculous offer from one or more New York teams. So let him go, and get to work. NOW.


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